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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic Resilience of DER Systems - A Simulation Assisted Optimization Approach

Energy systems resilience is becoming increasingly important as the frequency of major grid outages increases. In this work, we present a methodology to optimize a behind-tlie-meter distributed energy resource system to sustain a site's critical loads during a pre-defined outage period. With the fixed system design, we then propose an outage simulation approach to estimate the resilience potential of the DER system to sustain loads beyond the fixed outage period - a yearlong resilience performance analysis. We apply statistical analysis to assess the system's resilience performance over a broader parametric problem space on an hourly, monthly, and yearly basis. We demonstrate the impact of the pre-defined outage period on the resilience performance through a case study. Results show that the probability of surviving a random outage of a given duration changes from 20% to 95% when the outage is modeled for a weekday instead of a weekend for the given load-profile.

28 EE - Advanced Manufacturing Office (EE-5A)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dose Rate Analysis of the WCS Consolidated Interim Storage Facility

This report describes a confirmatory calculation for a proposed consolidated interim storage facility (CISF) to support the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s review of the license application submitted by the Interim Storage Partners. The scope of this report is limited to an assessment of the annual dose from direct radiation associated with Phase 1 of the Waste Control Specialists (WCS) CISF and the determination of the minimum controlled area boundary based on the 10 CFR 72.104 limit of 25 mrem annual dose to the whole body. The confirmatory dose rate calculations used the source term and shielding calculation capabilities of the SCALE 6.2.3 computer code system. The calculation method employed in the confirmatory calculations uses a detailed Monte Carlo radiation transport simulation from source to dose rate. This method differs from the two-step method used in the safety analysis report (SAR), which requires determination of the photon and neutron energy and angular distributions on the cask external surface and then the use of this surface source in a new radiation transport calculation to determine dose rate as a function of distance from the storage facility. A simulation was made using the complete site geometry (all casks present) but with only one cask containing source, and a total of 467 independent calculations were performed to obtain the dose rate maps produced by each storage cask. Basic input data and assumptions used in the SAR (e.g., cask design parameters and design basis assembly characteristics) were used in this confirmatory calculation for consistency with the SAR. Local atmospheric conditions for skyshine calculations were simulated using US standard atmosphere data, which describe average air temperature, pressure, and density as a function of altitude. The determined minimum required distances from the WCS Phase 1 CISF to a contour defined by the 25 mrem annual dose limit were approximately 623 m (0.387 miles) in the N-NE direction, 594 m (0.369 miles) in the SSW direction, and 533 m (0.331 miles) in the E-SE direction and the W-NW direction. The annual dose results of the confirmatory calculation are in relatively good agreement with the annual dose values presented in the WCS SAR. The annual dose produced by the Phase 1 CISF at the nearest site boundary, 0.75 miles away from the CISF, was estimated by this study to be approximately 6.02E-02 ± 2.0E-04 mrem, which is significantly smaller than the 25 mrem annual dose limit provided in 10 CFR 72.104. The SAR annual dose rate value for the nearest site boundary was 7.52E-2 mrem, which included 7.73E-03 mrem due to postulated leakage of the FO-, FC-, and FF-canisters. A comparison with the dose rate values reported in the SAR for 16 detector locations, D1 through D16, on the protected area boundary is also included in this report. This comparison shows that the SAR determined higher annual dose values for detectors D1 through D14 by 12% to 45% and lower annual dose values for detectors D15 and D16 by 18% and 8%, respectively, as compared with this ORNL confirmatory calculation. Sensitivity studies have been performed to support a comprehensive review of the application. In these studies, the effects on dose rate of the modeled air volume, density, and humidity were analyzed. The sensitivity calculations showed that the air volume used in the Monte Carlo simulations was adequate and that a larger air volume would not further increase the dose rate due to skyshine contributions. The sensitivity analysis showed that simulation of local atmospheric conditions is important for the accuracy of dose rate estimates at large distances from the facility. Air humidity was demonstrated to have negligible effects on dose rate values for the simulated local atmospheric conditions.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Nondestructive Modular Leak Detection in 3D Printed 316L Stainless Steel Pipes via Laser Powder Bed Fusion

This research investigates the leak detection features of 316L Stainless Steel pipe structures manufactured via Laser Powder Bed Fusion (LPBF). This work involves the design of a modular sensor system integrating nondestructive evaluation (NDE) methods, including thermal imaging and ultrasonic frequency detection to detect and characterize leaks in components. This aims to improve leak detection sensitivity within medium-pressure gas systems, during continuous operation without halting flow or introducing safety risks. The system could be adaptable for use on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), enabling remote leak detection in active environments. A custom pneumatic system incorporating temperature and pressure sensors was assembled to detect leaks in LPBF-printed 316L SS tee pipes. Experimental results and simulations confirm the system’s effectiveness in leak detection and material evaluation. This research program also integrated a Python-based image recognition platform based on a metallography and optical microscopy to assess the porosity and complement the leak detection data on the printed structures. This allows a detailed analysis of pore distribution and internal leak paths, which could compromise structural integrity, critical for quality control during manufacturing. Findings suggest that the investigated approach holds potential for enhancing leak detection technologies and adapt them for advanced manufactured parts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analyzing the Economic and Technical Potential of H2@Scale

H2@Scale is one of EERE's flagship initiatives to enable clean and affordable hydrogen production, storage, distribution, and utilization across multiple sectors in the economy. The January H2IQ hour will discuss results from a recent multi-laboratory analysis report quantifying the technical and economic potential of H2@Scale, given the use of hydrogen as an energy intermediate to integrate sectors in the U.S. energy system. Mark Ruth of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the lead author of the report, will discuss specific examples of the role hydrogen can play in industry and transportation sectors, such as steelmaking, synthetic fuels, and blending into natural gas pipelines. He will also explain how hydrogen production can be integrated with the electric grid to monetize low-cost energy and incentivize growth in renewable energy supply. The H2IQ Hour will dive into estimates for future hydrogen consumption in current and emerging sectors, given R&D advances and varying prices of natural gas and electricity.

39 EE - Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies (EE-3F↗
DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic Resilience of DER Systems - A Simulation Assisted Optimization Approach

Energy systems resilience is becoming increasingly important as the frequency of major grid outages increases. In this work, we present a methodology to optimize a behind-the-meter distributed energy resource system to sustain a site's critical loads during a pre-defined outage period. With the fixed system design, we then propose an outage simulation approach to estimate the resilience potential of the DER system to sustain loads beyond the fixed outage period - a yearlong resilience performance analysis. We apply statistical analysis to assess the system's resilience performance over a broader parametric problem space on an hourly, monthly, and yearly basis. We demonstrate the impact of the pre-defined outage period on the resilience performance through a case study. Results show that the probability of surviving a random outage of a given duration changes from 20% to 95% when the outage is modeled for a weekday instead of a weekend for the given load-profile.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Decentralized Microgrid Protection Through Relative Fault Direction Classification: Preprint

Protection in inverter-based resources (IBRs) dominated microgrids generally face significant challenges due to the low fault current and inconsistent fault behaviors from IBRs. Recently, machine learning-based approaches have attracted considerable attention to address these challenges. This paper introduces a novel decentralized protection strategy for microgrids. The proposed method decomposes the protection challenge into several distributed learning tasks, enabling individual relays to autonomously determine the direction of faults using a binary classification framework based on support vector machine (SVM) algorithms. Following the distributed fault direction estimation, classifier outcomes are shared among neighboring relays, facilitating a local decision-making process to ascertain the presence of faults within the neighborhood. Finally, a tripping signal is generated based on the classifier results of each relay to operate the circuit breaker. To test and validate this approach, a 100% renewable microgrid model is simulated in MATLAB/Simulink. In the numerical analysis, the application of SVM classifiers in our approach yields impressive results: an average relay classification accuracy of 98%, and a 96% accuracy in circuit breaker control. These findings highlight the potential of machine-learning-based approaches in enhancing the efficiency and reliability of microgrid protection systems.

decentralized algorithm↗
DOE OSTI2024

Energy system analysis of cutting off Russian gas supply to the European Union

The reduction of European Union's pipeline gas imports from Russia as a consequence of the Russian war against Ukraine has had severe economy-wide implications for the EU. Using a multisector integrated assessment model (GCAM), we find that a potential complete cut-off of Russian pipeline gas exports to the EU unevenly impacts the energy mix, prices, and trade flows of different subregions within the EU, depending on their access to alternative gas pipelines and LNG infrastructure. Moreover, there are also large changes in the volume and geographical distribution of global gas infrastructure capacity additions and stranded assets. Our results show that by significantly reducing demand for natural gas, the EU Fit-for-55 policy framework already improves resilience against a complete and persistent cut-off of Russian pipeline gas. However, further improvements in energy efficiency and renewable targets could further soften impacts, while bringing climate objectives closer in sight.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimal Dispatch for the US Virgin Islands to Increase Renewable Rates in Saint Croix

The US Virgin Islands, like many other small island nations, face significant challenges related to its energy supply. Their dependency on imported fossil fuels not only drives up energy costs, but also contributes to different environmental problems. Nevertheless, their generally sunny and windy climate makes this archipelago an ideal location for renewable energy development. Increasing the use of sources such as wind, and solar can help reduce their energy dependency, lower their levelized cost of electricity, and improve the health and wellbeing of local communities. In this paper, an optimal dispatcher is employed to analyze the implications on energy security of employing different technology options according to the plans of the local system operator. In this context, short term stability is ensured by inserting operational constraints in the energy management system based on stability analysis developed in PSCAD. The results highlight the usefulness of integrating PV and battery system, while further analysis are required to justify integrating wind power.

energy islands↗
DOE OSTI2021

Prevalence of typical operational problems and energy savings opportunities in U.S. commercial buildings

In the United States, as much as 30% of the 19 EJ that commercial buildings consume is considered excess. Much of the excess energy is due to the inability to manage building operations efficiently. Because almost 20% of the total primary energy consumption is associated with commercial buildings, significant energy reductions in this sector are needed to mitigate climate change. Therefore, many cities and states are mandating periodic “tune-ups” of these buildings to eliminate excess energy consumption. Although the benefits of tune-ups and retro-commissioning are clear, focusing these mandates to look for specific opportunities has been a challenge because of the lack of studies that document the prevalence of opportunities. Therefore, we analyzed building automation system data from 151 buildings across the United States to document common operational problems and opportunities to improve building operations. This analysis showed that opportunities to improve building operations exist in almost every building. These opportunities were not strongly correlated with building vintage or size, but were reflective of how the buildings are operated. The prevalence of the top 20 opportunities ranged between 74% and 23%, with 40% of these associated with air-handling units. The rest of the opportunities are associated with schedules, chilled and hot-water distribution, and zone controls. Of the 151 buildings, 69 of them implemented corrective actions of some or all opportunities that were identified. Implementation varied across the Re-tuning categories, with 60% for schedule opportunities, 50% for zone opportunities, over 40% for the air-handling unit and hot-water opportunities, and 35% of the chilled-water opportunities. There was wide variation in whole building energy savings, ranging from 0 to 50% and 0 to 18 $/m2 with median percent annual whole building savings of 12% and median normalized annual cost savings of $1.75/m2. In addition to documenting these key findings, the paper provides a list of opportunities that can be automatically and continuously identified and corrected and offers a list of those opportunities that should be the focus of the mandates.

Katipamula, Srinivas↗
DOE OSTI2023

Incorporation of aerosol into the COSPv2 satellite lidar simulator for climate model evaluation

Abstract. Atmospheric aerosol has substantial impacts on climate, air quality and biogeochemical cycles, and its concentrations are highly variable in space and time. A key variability to evaluate within models that simulate aerosol is the vertical distribution, which influences atmospheric heating profiles and aerosol–cloud interactions, to help constrain aerosol residence time and to better represent the magnitude of simulated impacts. To ensure a consistent comparison between modeled and observed vertical distribution of aerosol, we implemented an aerosol lidar simulator within the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Observation Simulator Package version 2 (COSPv2). We assessed the attenuated total backscattered (ATB) signal and the backscatter ratios (SRs) at 532 nm in the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1). The simulator performs the computations at the same vertical resolution as the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP), making use of aerosol optics from the E3SMv1 model as inputs and assuming that aerosol is uniformly distributed horizontally within each model grid box. The simulator applies a cloud masking and an aerosol detection threshold to obtain the ATB and SR profiles that would be observed above clouds by CALIOP with its aerosol detection capability. Our analysis shows that the aerosol distribution simulated at a seasonal timescale is generally in good agreement with observations. Over the Southern Ocean, however, the model does not produce the SR maximum as observed in the real world. Comparison between clear-sky and all-sky SRs shows little differences, indicating that the cloud screening by potentially incorrect model clouds does not affect the mean aerosol signal averaged over a season. This indicates that the differences between observed and simulated SR values are due not to sampling errors, but to deficiencies in the representation of aerosol in models. Finally, we highlight the need for future applications of lidar observations at multiple wavelengths to provide insights into aerosol properties and distribution and their representation in Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Grid-Supportive Loads for Fast Frequency Response

Flexibility in inverter-based loads could be used to support the converter-dominated power grid by offering a rapid, autonomous, and adjustable power reserve during system transients to help maintain system stability. Based on technical potential, ancillary service (AS) value, and implementation costs, this study illustrates the cost-benefit analysis of grid-supportive loads (GSLs) for the supply of fast frequency response (FFR). The net benefit for each GSL is demonstrated using a case study and relevant data sources. The findings suggest that implementation costs for enabling GSL features are low compared to the value that grid operators get from the acquisition of responsive reserve services. The authors believe that, given the rising popularity of renewable energy sources, GSLs can be a useful tool for grid stability in low-inertia systems.

cost-benefit analysis↗
DOE OSTI2022

Real-Time Distribution System State Estimation with Asynchronous Measurements

We report state estimation is a fundamental task in power systems. Although distribution systems are increasingly equipped with sensing devices and smart meters, measurements are typically reported at different rates and asynchronously; these aspects pose severe strains on workhorse state estimation algorithms, which are designed to process batches of data collected in a synchronous manner from all the measurement units. In this paper, we develop a novel state estimation algorithm to continuously update the estimate of the state based on measurements received in an asynchronous manner from measurement units. The synthesis of the algorithm hinges on a proximal-point type method, implemented in an online fashion, and capable of processing measurements received sequentially from sensors. A performance analysis is presented by providing bounds on the estimation error in terms of the mean and variance that hold at each iteration and asymptotically. The scheme is also compared with a more traditional Weighted Least Squares estimator that compensates for the lack of measurement data by using, as pseudo measurements, the measurement retrieved during a certain time window. Numerical simulations on the IEEE 37-bus feeder corroborate the analytical findings.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Robustness of the Ensemble Score Filter to the Type of Assimilated Observation Networks

Recent advances in data assimilation (DA) have focused on developing more flexible approaches that can better accommodate nonlinearities in models and observations. However, it remains unclear how the performance of these advanced methods depends on the observation network characteristics. In this study, we present initial experiments with the surface quasi‐geostrophic model, in which we compare a recently developed ensemble filter using score‐based diffusion models with the standard Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF). Our results show that the analysis solutions respond differently to the number, spatial distribution, and nonlinear fraction of assimilated observations. We also find notable changes in the multiscale characteristics of the analysis errors. Given that standard DA techniques will eventually be replaced by more advanced methods, we hope this study sets the ground for future efforts to reassess the value of Earth observing systems in the context of newly emerging algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Short-term electricity load forecasting: Application-driven evaluation of machine learning models across spatial and temporal scales

As we transition towards a decarbonized economy, the integration of variable renewable energy resources and new demands (e.g., electric vehicles, heat pumps) into the electricity grid places unprecedented pressure on grid operators to effectively anticipate and manage peak load. In this context, machine learning algorithms are proving to be indispensable for accurate short-term load forecasting, a crucial task to address these challenges. This study benchmarks 6 machine learning algorithms, including three neural networks and three tree-based algorithms, across various levels of spatial aggregation and time horizons (1, 4, 8, 24, and 48 h). The central contribution of this work is the comparison and analysis of load forecasting models not only based on statistical metrics, but also based on a novel error metric, which evaluates the cost implications of forecast errors for power system stakeholders. Results show that tree-based models outperform neural networks, based on statistical metrics, and yield less skewed error distributions for most spatial scales. However, through the lens of the novel error metric, neural networks are the more competitive choice, especially for forecast horizons that exceed 8 h. The study concludes with actionable recommendations to grid operators and highlights the need for the development of error metrics that link forecasting accuracy to operational costs. To promote transparency and open science, the datasets and Python code are open-sourced via a supplementary repository.

Houben, Nikolaus↗
DOE OSTI2020

STRIDES: a 3.9 per cent measurement of the Hubble constant from the strong lens system DES J0408−5354

We present a blind time-delay cosmographic analysis for the lens system DES J0408−5354. This system is extraordinary for the presence of two sets of multiple images at different redshifts, which provide the opportunity to obtain more information at the cost of increased modelling complexity with respect to previously analysed systems. We perform detailed modelling of the mass distribution for this lens system using three band Hubble Space Telescope imaging. We combine the measured time delays, line-of-sight central velocity dispersion of the deflector, and statistically constrained external convergence with our lens models to estimate two cosmological distances. We measure the ‘effective’ time-delay distance corresponding to the redshifts of the deflector and the lensed quasar |$D_{\Delta t}^{\rm eff}=$||$3382_{-115}^{+146}$| Mpc and the angular diameter distance to the deflector D_d = |$1711_{-280}^{+376}$| Mpc, with covariance between the two distances. From these constraints on the cosmological distances, we infer the Hubble constant H_0= |$74.2_{-3.0}^{+2.7}$| km s^−1 Mpc^−^1 assuming a flat ΛCDM cosmology and a uniform prior for Ω_m as |$\Omega _{\rm m} \sim \mathcal {U}(0.05, 0.5)$|⁠. This measurement gives the most precise constraint on H_0 to date from a single lens. Our measurement is consistent with that obtained from the previous sample of six lenses analysed by the H_0 Lenses in COSMOGRAIL’s Wellspring (H0LiCOW) collaboration. It is also consistent with measurements of H_0 based on the local distance ladder, reinforcing the tension with the inference from early Universe probes, for example, with 2.2σ discrepancy from the cosmic microwave background measurement.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Water Network Tool for Resilience (WNTR). User Manual, Version 0.2.3

The Water Network Tool for Resilience (WNTR, pronounced winter) is a Python package designed to simulate and analyze resilience of water distribution networks. Here, a network refers to the collection of pipes, pumps, valves, junctions, tanks, and reservoirs that make up a water distribution system. WNTR has an application programming interface (API) that is flexible and allows for changes to the network structure and operations, along with simulation of disruptive incidents and recovery actions. WNTR is based upon EPANET, which is a tool to simulate the movement and fate of drinking water constituents within distribution systems. Users are encouraged to be familiar with the use of EPANET and/or should have background knowledge in hydraulics and pressurized pipe network modeling before using WNTR. EPANET has a graphical user interface that might be a useful tool to facilitate the visualization of the network and the associated analysis results. Information on EPANET can be found at https://www.epa.gov/water-research/epanet. WNTR is compatible with EPANET 2.00.12 [Ross00]. In addition, users should have experience using Python, including the installation of additional Python packages. General information on Python can be found at https://www.python.org/.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

DISSPATCH H2: Assessing Subsurface Storage Potential for Hydrogen

This project evaluates the technical feasibility of long-term underground hydrogen storage in the Anadarko Basin, integrating subsurface science, reservoir engineering, and system-level analysis to build a cohesive understanding of how hydrogen may be stored and recovered in porous media. Although salt caverns currently dominate commercial-scale hydrogen storage, their limited geographic availability necessitates alternative options that can support a more resilient energy system. Depleted oil and gas reservoirs offer a widely distributed and potentially high-capacity solution, but their suitability depends on formation-specific geologic, petrophysical, microbial, and operational factors. This study provides the first coordinated assessment of these factors within the Simpson Group of Oklahoma.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Field intercomparison of ice nucleation measurements: the Fifth International Workshop on Ice Nucleation Phase 3 (FIN-03)

Abstract. The third phase of the Fifth International Ice Nucleation Workshop (FIN-03) was conducted at the Storm Peak Laboratory in Steamboat Springs, Colorado, in September 2015 to facilitate the intercomparison of instruments measuring ice-nucleating particles (INPs) in the field. Instruments included two online and four offline measurement systems for INPs, which are a subset of those utilized in the laboratory study that comprised the second phase of FIN (FIN-02). The composition of the total aerosols was characterized using the Particle Analysis by Laser Mass Spectrometry (PALMS) and Wideband Integrated Bioaerosol Sensor (WIBS) instruments, and aerosol size distributions were measured by a laser aerosol spectrometer (LAS). The dominant total particle compositions present during FIN-03 were composed of sulfates, organic compounds, and nitrates, as well as particles derived from biomass burning. Mineral-dust-containing particles were ubiquitous throughout and represented 67 % of supermicron particles. Total WIBS fluorescing particle concentrations for particles with diameters of > 0.5 µm were 0.04 ± 0.02 cm−3 (0.1 cm−3 highest; 0.02 cm−3 lowest), typical of the warm season in this region and representing ≈ 9 % of all particles in this size range as a campaign average. The primary focus of FIN-03 was the measurement of INP concentrations via immersion freezing at temperatures > −33 °C. Additionally, some measurements were made in the deposition nucleation regime at these same temperatures, representing one of the first efforts to include both mechanisms within a field campaign. INP concentrations via immersion freezing agreed within factors ranging from nearly 1 to 5 times on average between matched (time and temperature) measurements, and disagreements only rarely exceeded 1 order of magnitude for sampling times coordinated to within 3 h. Comparisons were restricted to temperatures lower than −15 °C due to the limits of detection related to sample volumes and very low INP concentrations. Outliers of up to 2 orders of magnitude occurred between −25 and −18 °C; a better agreement was seen at higher and lower temperatures. Although the 5–10 factor agreement of INP measurements found in FIN-03 aligned with the results of the FIN-02 laboratory comparison phase, giving confidence in progress of this measurement field, this level of agreement still equates to temperature uncertainties of 3.5 to 5 °C that may not be sufficient for numerical cloud modeling applications that utilize INP information. INP activity in the immersion-freezing mode was generally found to be an order of magnitude or more, making it more efficient than in the deposition regime at 95 %–99 % water relative humidity, although this limited data set should be augmented in future efforts. To contextualize the study results, an assessment was made of the composition of INPs during the late-summer to early-fall period of this study inferred through comparison to existing ice nucleation parameterizations and through measurement of the influence of thermal and organic carbon digestion treatments on immersion-freezing ice nucleation activity. Consistent with other studies in continental regions, biological INPs dominated at temperatures of > −20 °C and sometimes colder, while arable dust-like or other organic-influenced INPs were inferred to dominate below −20 °C.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗