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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

FTIR Analysis of Water in Pyroxene and Plagioclase in ALH 84001 and Nakhlites

Determining the volatile budget of the interior of Mars is crucial for our understanding of that planet's formation, geodynamics, cooling history and the origin of its volcanism and atmosphere as well as its potential for life. Surficial water is evident from spacecraft and rover data in polar caps and the atmosphere, in the presence of river channels, and in the detection of water-bearing minerals. Meteorites, however, are our best candidates for estimating the amount of water present at depth, even if all are crustal samples. The last 10 years have seen a blooming of studies measuring water and halogens in Martian meteorites. The bulk of these studies target phosphate, a typically late-stage phase in the igneous Martian meteorites that potentially would concentrate incompatible element hydrogen (H quantified traditionally as "water", i.e., H2O concentrations in weight) near the end of the crystallization sequence. However, determining the amount of water, F, and Cl in the magma from which a phosphate crystallized from is not straightforward and in most instances not possible. On the other hand, phosphates have turned out to be very useful in identifying hydrothermal processes that could have added water while or after the magma flowed and crystallized. Another caveat of analyzing Martian meteorite phases for water is that shocked phases such as maskelynite and impact melts appear to have incorporated water from the Martian atmosphere, as evidenced by high H isotope ((delta)D) signatures, and therefore their water concentrations cannot be interpreted in terms of deep planetary processes. The best candidates for estimating the water content of the Martian interior have been melt inclusions (glass or amphibole-bearing) which the enclosing mineral (usually olivine) would have prevented from exchanging volatiles with the surroundings after crystallization. Even some of these, however, have high (delta)D, meaning they were affected by H exchange via impact events or with crustal reservoirs or hydrothermal fluids. Here, nominally anhydrous minerals (pyroxene, olivine, plagioclase, or maskelynite) in orthopyroxenite ALH 84001 and selected nakhlites are analyzed for water and major elements, in order to determine 1) whether they contain any water; 2) if they do, what controls its distribution (crystallization, degassing, hydrothermal or impact processes); and 3) if any of these measurements can be used to infer the water contents of the parent magma and their mantle sources. A shock-reverberation experiment was also performed on terrestrial orthopyroxenes (opx) to simulate the heavily shocked conditions of ALH 84001 (> 31 GPa [17]).

Peslier, A. H.↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Signs of Life Detector (SOLID): An Instrument to Detect Molecular Biosignatures on Mars

The case for life on Mars grows stronger. Investigations at Gale Crater by Curiosity have revealed fine-grained sedimentary rocks inferred to represent an ancient lake environment suited to support life. In addition, Curiosity tentatively found a heterogeneous distribution of organic carbon within these sediments, consistent with the detection of native organic C in Mars meteorites. Furthermore, modern potentially habitable environments have been recognized on Mars including the N. Polar region visited by Phoenix, gully features suggesting modern water flows, and RSLs that occur seasonally suggest liquid processes. The time is ripe for missions to Mars incorporating a search for biochemical evidence of life.

The SOLID Instrument↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling regional precipitation over the Indus River basin of Pakistan using statistical downscaling

Complex processes govern spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation within the high-mountainous headwater regions (commonly known as the upper Indus basin (UIB)), of the Indus River basin of Pakistan. Reliable precipitation simulations particularly over the UIB present a major scientific challenge due to regional complexity and inadequate observational coverage. Here, we present a statistical downscaling approach to model observed precipitation of the entire Indus basin, with a focus on UIB within available data constraints. Taking advantage of recent high altitude (HA) observatories, we perform precipitation regionalization using K-means cluster analysis to demonstrate effectiveness of low-altitude stations to provide useful precipitation inferences over more uncertain and hydrologically important HA of the UIB. We further employ generalized linear models (GLM) with gamma and Tweedie distributions to identify major dynamic and thermodynamic drivers from a reanalysis dataset within a robust cross-validation framework that explain observed spatiotemporal precipitation patterns across the Indus basin. Final statistical models demonstrate higher predictability to resolve precipitation variability over wetter southern Himalayans and different lower Indus regions, by mainly using different dynamic predictors. The modeling framework also shows an adequate performance over more complex and uncertain trans-Himalayans and the northwestern regions of the UIB, particularly during the seasons dominated by the westerly circulations. However, the cryosphere-dominated trans-Himalayan regions, which largely govern the basin hydrology, require relatively complex models that contain dynamic and thermodynamic circulations. Furthermore, we also analyzed relevant atmospheric circulations during precipitation anomalies over the UIB, to evaluate physical consistency of the statistical models, as an additional measure of reliability. Overall, our results suggest that such circulation-based statistical downscaling has the potential to improve our understanding towards distinct features of the regional-scale precipitation across the upper and lower Indus basin. Additionally, such understanding should help to assess the response of this complex, data-scarce, and climate-sensitive river basin amid future climatic changes, to serve communal and scientific interests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust inference of ecosystem soil water stress from eddy covariance data

Eddy covariance data are invaluable for determining ecosystem water use strategies under soil water stress. However, existing stress inference methods require numerous subjective data processing and model specification assumptions whose effect on the inferred soil water stress signal is rarely quantified. These uncertainties may confound the stress inference and the generalization of ecosystem water use strategies across multiple sites and studies. In this research, we quantify the sensitivity of soil water stress signals inferred from eddy covariance data to the prevailing data and modeling assumptions (i.e., their robustness) to compile a comprehensive list of sites with robust soil water stress signals and assess the performance of current stress inference methods. To accomplish this, we identify the most prevalent assumptions from the literature and perform a digital factorial experiment to extract probability distributions of plausible soil water stress signals and model performance at 151 FLUXNET2015 and AmeriFlux-FLUXNET sites. Here, we develop a new framework that summarizes these probability distributions to classify and rank the robustness of each site’s soil water stress signal, which we display with a user-friendly heat map. We estimate that only 5%–36% of sites exhibit a robust soil water stress signal due to deficient model performance and poorly constrained ecosystem water use parameters. We also find that the lack of robustness is site-specific, which undermines grouping stress signals by broad ecosystem categories or comparing results across studies with differing assumptions. Lastly, existing stress inference methods appear better suited for eddy covariance sites with grass/annual vegetation. Our findings call for more careful and consistent inference of ecosystem water stress from eddy covariance data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2004

Theoretical and Observational Determination of Global and Regional Radiation Budget, Forcing and Feedbacks at the Top-of-Atmosphere and Surface

Report consists of: 1. List of accomplishments 2. List of publications 3. Abstracts of published or submitted papers and 4. Subject invention disclosure. The accomplishments of the grant listed are: 1. Improved the third-order turbulence closure in cloud resolving models to remove the liquid water oscillation. 2. Used the University of California-Los Angeles (UCLA) large-eddy simulation (LES) model to provide data for radiation transfer testing. 3. Revised shortwave k-distribution models based on HITRAN 2000. 4. Developed a gamma-weighted two-stream radiative transfer model for radiation budget estimate applications. 5. Estimated the effect of spherical geometry to the earth radiation budget. 6. Estimated top-of-atmosphere irradiance over snow and sea ice surfaces. 7. Estimated the aerosol direct radiative effect at the top of the atmosphere. 8. Estimated the top-of-atmosphere reflectance of the clear-sky molecular atmosphere over ocean. 9. Developed and validated new set of Angular Distribution Models for the CERES TRMM satellite instrument (tropical) 10. Developed and validated new set of Angular Distribution Models for the CERES Terra satellite instrument (global) 11. Quantified the top-of-atmosphere direct radiative effect of aerosols over global oceans from merged CERES and MODIS observations 12 Clarified the definition of TOA flux reference level for radiation budget studies 13. Developed new algorithm for unfaltering CERES measured radiances 14. Used multiangle POLDER measurements to produce narrowband angular distribution models and examine the effect of scene identification errors on TOA albedo estimates 15. Developed and validated a novel algorithm called the Multidirectional Reflectance Matching (MRM) model for inferring TOA albedos from ice clouds using multi-angle satellite measurements. 16. Developed and validated a novel algorithm called the Multidirectional Polarized Reflectance Matching (MPRM) model for inferring particle shapes from ice clouds using multi-angle polarized satellite measurements. 17. Developed 4 advanced light scattering models including the three-dimensional (3D) uniaxial perfectly matched layer (UPML) finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) model. 18. Develop sunglint in situ measurement and study reflectance distribution in the sunglint area. 19. Lead a balloon-borne radiometer TOA albedo validation effort. 20. Developed a CERES surface UVB, UVA, and UV index product.

Loeb, Norman G.↗
NASA NTRS2002

On the Consistency of Gamma-Ray Burst Spectral Indices with the Synchrotron Shock Model

The current scenario for gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) involves internal shocks for the prompt GRB emission phase and external shocks for the afterglow phase. Assuming optically thin synchrotron emission from isotropically distributed energetic shocked electrons, GRB spectra observed with a low-energy power-law spectral index greater than -2/3 (for positive photon number indices E(exp alpha) indicate a problem with this model. For spectra that do not violate this condition, additional tests of the shock model can be made by comparing the low- and high-energy spectral indices, on the basis of the model's assertion that synchrotron emission from a single power-law distribution of electrons is responsible for both the low-energy and the high-energy power-law portions of the spectra. We find in most cases that the inferred relationship between the two spectral indices of observed GRB spectra is inconsistent with the constraints from the simple optically thin synchrotron shock emission model. In this sense, the prompt burst phase is different from the afterglow phase, and this difference may be related to anisotropic distributions of particles or to their continual acceleration in shocks during the prompt phase.

Preece, R. D.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Learning Latent Interactions for Event Identification via Graph Neural Networks and PMU Data

Phasor measurement units (PMUs) are being widely installed on power systems, providing a unique opportunity to enhance wide-area situational awareness. One essential application is the use of PMU data for real-time event identification. However, how to take full advantage of all PMU data in event identification is still an open problem. Thus, we propose a novel method that performs event identification by mining interaction graphs among different PMUs. The proposed interaction graph inference method follows an entirely data-driven manner without knowing the physical topology. Moreover, unlike previous works that treat interactive learning and event identification as two different stages, our method learns interactions jointly with the identification task, thereby improving the accuracy of graph learning and ensuring seamless integration between the two stages. Moreover, to capture multi-scale event patterns, a dilated inception-based method is investigated to perform feature extraction of PMU data. To test the proposed data-driven approach, a large real-world dataset from tens of PMU sources and the corresponding event logs have been utilized in this work. We report numerical results validate that our method has higher classification accuracy compared to previous methods.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1980

Lunar near-surface shear wave velocities at the Apollo landing sites as inferred from spectral amplitude ratios

The horizontal-to-vertical amplitude ratios of the long-period seismograms are reexamined to determine the shear wave velocity distributions at the Apollo 12, 14, 15, and 16 lunar landing sites. Average spectral ratios, computed from a number of impact signals, were compared with spectral ratios calculated for the fundamental mode Rayleigh waves in media consisting of homogeneous, isotropic, horizontal layers. The shear velocities of the best fitting models at the different sites resemble each other and differ from the average for all sites by not more than 20% except for the bottom layer at station 14. The shear velocities increase from 40 m/s at the surface to about 400 m/s at depths between 95 and 160 m at the various sites. Within this depth range the velocity-depth functions are well represented by two piecewise linear segments, although the presence of first-order discontinuities cannot be ruled out.

Horvath, P.↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Accurate, Error-Tolerant, and Energy-Efficient Neural Network Inference Engine Based on SONOS Analog Memory

In this work, we demonstrate SONOS (silicon-oxide-nitrideoxide- silicon) analog memory arrays that are optimized for neural network inference. The devices are fabricated in a 40nm process and operated in the subthreshold regime for in-memory matrix multiplication. Subthreshold operation enables low conductances to be implemented with low error, which matches the typical weight distribution of neural networks, which is heavily skewed toward near-zero values. This leads to high accuracy in the presence of programming errors and process variations. We simulate the end-to-end neural network inference accuracy, accounting for the measured programming error, read noise, and retention loss in a fabricated SONOS array. Evaluated on the ImageNet dataset using ResNet50, the accuracy using a SONOS system is within 2.16% of floating-point accuracy without any retraining. The unique error properties and high On/Off ratio of the SONOS device allow scaling to large arrays without bit slicing, and enable an inference architecture that achieves 20 TOPS/W on ResNet50, a >10× gain in energy efficiency over state-of-the-art digital and analog inference accelerators.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1990

Stabilization functions of unforced cumulus clouds - Their nature and components

The nature and the spatial distribution of cumuli within an unforced cumulus cloud field are investigated. The thermodynamic effects of convection are quantified as functions of changes of convective available potential energy (CAPE) induced by the convective overturning, and the time rate of change of CAPE is parameterized in terms of a kernel of influence or stabilization function. A three-dimensional cloud model is used to infer and quantify stabilization functions by performing single-cloud experiments. On the basis of the results obtained, a new hypothesis with respect to the spatial distribution of cumuli is postulated, which states that, under completely homogeneous external conditions and assuming a spatially random distribution of cloud-triggering mechanisms, the spatial distribution of cumuli in the resulting cloud field must be regular, as opposed to either random or clustered, because cumulus clouds tend to reduce the available energy for convection, thereby inhibiting further convection nearby.

Ramirez, Jorge A.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Distribution of Slip at the Northern Sumatran Fault System

We model spatial variations in horizontal displacements of 117 geodetic sites measured during annual surveys in 1989-1996 with the Global Positioning System (GPS) as elastic strain across a locked strike-slip fault to infer the contemporary slip rate, locking depth, and location of the Sumatran fault (SF) in northern Sumatra (1 S-3 N). GPS-derived slip rate estimates increase slightly northward from 23 plus or minus 3 mm/yr at 0.8 deg S to 26 plus or minus 2mm/yr at 2.7 N. They agree with geologic estimates north of the Equator, but at 0.5 S they are about 10 mm/yr higher. Strain appears to be distributed asymmetrically about the fault. South of 2 N, about 5 mm/yr of shear is required within the offshore forearc, west of the fault, to achieve a closer agreement of fault locations inferred from GPS velocities with geologically identified traces of the SF. Locking depth estimates are on the order of 10-20 km. The western branch of the major fault bifurcation near 1 N slips at a rate five times higher than the eastern branch. The two main strands of the fault at the northwestern tip of Sumatra (5.5 N) appear to be nearly free of horizontal strain; significant slip must occur away from the two strands, probably further east at two other geologically active branches. The Banda Aceh embayment is extruded to the northwest at a rate of 5 plus or minus 2 mm/yr. Within the estimated velocity uncertainties of several mm/yr, fault-normal deformation along the SF is insignificant. Almost strain free, the northern part of the back-arc basin is part of a rigid Sunda shelf, while the northern forearc is subjected to 8 plus or minus 5 x 10 (exp -8)/yr of extension nearly parallel to the arc.

Genrich, J. F.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Simple Models of the Spatial Distribution of Cloud Radiative Properties for Remote Sensing Studies

This project aimed to assess the degree to which estimates of three-dimensional cloud structure can be inferred from a time series of profiles obtained at a point. The work was motivated by the desire to understand the extent to which high-frequency profiles of the atmosphere (e.g. ARM data streams) can be used to assess the magnitude of non-plane parallel transfer of radiation in thc atmosphere. We accomplished this by performing an observing system simulation using a large-eddy simulation and a Monte Carlo radiative transfer model. We define the 3D effect as the part of the radiative transfer that isn't captured by one-dimensional radiative transfer calculations. We assess the magnitude of the 3D effect in small cumulus clouds by using a fine-scale cloud model to simulate many hours of cloudiness over a continental site. We then use a Monte Carlo radiative transfer model to compute the broadband shortwave fluxes at the surface twice, once using the complete three-dimensional radiative transfer F(sup 3D), and once using the ICA F (sup ICA); the difference between them is the 3D effect given.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2020

Early retirement of power plants in climate mitigation scenarios

International efforts to avoid dangerous climate change aim for large and rapid reductions of fossil fuel CO 2 emissions worldwide, including nearly complete decarbonization of the electric power sector. However, achieving such rapid reductions may depend on early retirement of coal- and natural gas-fired power plants. Here, we analyze future fossil fuel electricity demand in 171 energy-emissions scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), evaluating the implicit retirements and/or reduced operation of generating infrastructure. Although IAMs calculate retirements endogenously, the structure and methods of each model differ; we use a standard approach to infer retirements in outputs from all six major IAMs and—unlike the IAMs themselves—we begin with the age distribution and region-specific operating capacities of the existing power fleet. We find that coal-fired power plants in scenarios consistent with international climate targets (i.e. keeping global warming well-below 2 °C or 1.5 °C) retire one to three decades earlier than historically has been the case. If plants are built to meet projected fossil electricity demand and instead allowed to operate at the level and over the lifetimes they have historically, the roughly 200 Gt CO 2 of additional emissions this century would be incompatible with keeping global warming well-below 2 °C. Thus, ambitious climate mitigation scenarios entail drastic, and perhaps un-appreciated, changes in the operating and/or retirement schedules of power infrastructure.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Nonequilibrium information entropy approach to ternary fission of actinides

Ternary fission of actinides probes the state of the nucleus at scission. Light clusters are produced in space and time very close to the scission point. Within the nonequilibrium statistical operator method, a generalized Gibbs distribution is constructed from the information given by the observed yields of isotopes. Using this relevant statistical operator, yields are calculated taking excited states and continuum correlations into account, in accordance with the virial expansion of the equation of state. Furthermore, clusters with mass number A≤10 are well described using the nonequilibrium generalizations of temperature and chemical potentials. Improving the virial expansion, in-medium effects may become of importance in determining the contribution of weakly bound states and continuum correlations to the intrinsic partition function. Yields of larger clusters, which fail to reach this quasiequilibrium form of the relevant distribution, are described by nucleation kinetics, and a saddle-to-scission relaxation time of about 7000 fm/c is inferred. Light-charged particle emission, described by reaction kinetics and virial expansions, may therefore be regarded as a very important tool to probe the nonequilibrium time evolution of actinide nuclei during fission.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantification of Ebola virus replication kinetics in vitro

Mathematical modelling has successfully been used to provide quantitative descriptions of many viral infections, but for the Ebola virus, which requires biosafety level 4 facilities for experimentation, modelling can play a crucial role. Ebola virus modelling efforts have primarily focused on in vivo virus kinetics, e.g., in animal models, to aid the development of antivirals and vaccines. But, thus far, these studies have not yielded a detailed specification of the infection cycle, which could provide a foundational description of the virus kinetics and thus a deeper understanding of their clinical manifestation. Here, we obtain a diverse experimental data set of the Ebola virus infection in vitro, and then make use of Bayesian inference methods to fully identify parameters in a mathematical model of the infection. Our results provide insights into the distribution of time an infected cell spends in the eclipse phase (the period between infection and the start of virus production), as well as the rate at which infectious virions lose infectivity. We suggest how these results can be used in future models to describe co-infection with defective interfering particles, which are an emerging alternative therapeutic.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multi-fidelity is the new annealing: Gradient-free learning of posterior densities via transport maps

To tackle concentrated, multi-modal Bayesian inference problems, we propose using an annealed importance sampling procedure. To do this, we form a sequence of annealed distributions and employ transport maps to act as a surrogate of each distribution. This process is demonstrated on a few examples, favorably showing its potential for efficiently parallelizing the process of PDE evaluations and allowing for surrogates that we can sample from exactly.

van Bloemen Waanders, Bart G [Sandia National Labo↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multimodal parameter spaces of a complex multi-channel neuron model

One of the most common types of models that helps us to understand neuron behavior is based on the Hodgkin–Huxley ion channel formulation (HH model). A major challenge with inferring parameters in HH models is non-uniqueness: many different sets of ion channel parameter values produce similar outputs for the same input stimulus. Such phenomena result in an objective function that exhibits multiple modes (i.e., multiple local minima). This non-uniqueness of local optimality poses challenges for parameter estimation with many algorithmic optimization techniques. HH models additionally have severe non-linearities resulting in further challenges for inferring parameters in an algorithmic fashion. To address these challenges with a tractable method in high-dimensional parameter spaces, we propose using a particular Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, which has the advantage of inferring parameters in a Bayesian framework. The Bayesian approach is designed to be suitable for multimodal solutions to inverse problems. We introduce and demonstrate the method using a three-channel HH model. We then focus on the inference of nine parameters in an eight-channel HH model, which we analyze in detail. We explore how the MCMC algorithm can uncover complex relationships between inferred parameters using five injected current levels. The MCMC method provides as a result a nine-dimensional posterior distribution, which we analyze visually with solution maps or landscapes of the possible parameter sets. The visualized solution maps show new complex structures of the multimodal posteriors, and they allow for selection of locally and globally optimal value sets, and they visually expose parameter sensitivities and regions of higher model robustness. We envision these solution maps as enabling experimentalists to improve the design of future experiments, increase scientific productivity and improve on model structure and ideation when the MCMC algorithm is applied to experimental data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1987

Radio studies of large scale structures of the Sun's corona and transient activity

The use of meter-decimeter wavelength imaging observations for four different kinds of studies of solar coronal activity is discussed. (1) Large scale structure of the upper corona; daily imaging observations permit comparison of radio images with white light images from space and ground observation, generation of synoptic charts similar to white light coronagraph synoptic charts, and comparison of radio brightness enhancements and deficiencies with bright coronal streamers and coronal holes. (2) Relative positions of type III burst sources and coronal streamers as observed by Solwind experiment on the P-78-1 satellite and by the HAO C/P experiment aboard the SMM; infer the paths of type III emitting electrons in dense coronal streamers, and from multifrequency observations derive electron density distributions above active regions near the limb. (3) Non-flare associated type II/type IV bursts associated with coronal streamer disruption events; such type IV sources have a rather slow velocity (approx = to or less than 100 km/s) CMEs. (4) Meter-decimeter microbursts; these are short duration (2-10 sec) weak-type III-like bursts, produced at the fundamental plasma frequency by plasma radiation processes which have important differences from the standard mechanisms used to explain the strong type III bursts.

Kundu, Mukul R.↗