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At least 937 records · Page 52

Engineering prediction of turbulent skin friction and heat transfer in high-speed flow

A large collection of experimental turbulent-skin-friction and heat-transfer data for flat plates and cones was used to determine the most accurate of six of the most popular engineering-prediction methods; the data represent a Mach number range from 4 to 13 and ratio of wall to total temperature ranging from 0.1 to 0.7. The Spalding and Chi method incorporating virtual-origin concepts was found to be the best prediction method for Mach numbers less than 10; the limited experimental data for Mach numbers greater than 10 were not well predicted by any of the engineering methods except the Coles method.

Cary, A. M., Jr.↗

Orion MPCV Touchdown Detection Threshold Development and Testing

A robust method of detecting Orion Multi ]Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) splashdown is necessary to ensure crew and hardware safety during descent and after touchdown. The proposed method uses a triple redundant system to inhibit Reaction Control System (RCS) thruster firings, detach parachute risers from the vehicle, and transition to the post ]landing segment of the Flight Software (FSW). The vehicle crew is the prime input for touchdown detection, followed by an autonomous FSW algorithm, and finally a strictly time based backup timer. RCS thrusters must be inhibited before submersion in water to protect against possible damage due to firing these jets under water. In addition, neglecting to declare touchdown will not allow the vehicle to transition to post ]landing activities such as activating the Crew Module Up ]righting System (CMUS), resulting in possible loss of communication and difficult recovery. A previous AIAA paper gAssessment of an Automated Touchdown Detection Algorithm for the Orion Crew Module h concluded that a strictly Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) based detection method using an acceleration spike algorithm had the highest safety margins and shortest detection times of other methods considered. That study utilized finite element simulations of vehicle splashdown, generated by LS ]DYNA, which were expanded to a larger set of results using a Kriging surface fit. The study also used the Decelerator Systems Simulation (DSS) to generate flight dynamics during vehicle descent under parachutes. Proto ]type IMU and FSW MATLAB models provided the basis for initial algorithm development and testing. This paper documents an in ]depth trade study, using the same dynamics data and MATLAB simulations as the earlier work, to further develop the acceleration detection method. By studying the combined effects of data rate, filtering on the rotational acceleration correction, data persistence limits and values of acceleration thresholds, an optimal configuration was determined. The lever arm calculation, which removes the centripetal acceleration caused by vehicle rotation, requires that the vehicle angular acceleration be derived from vehicle body rates, necessitating the addition of a 2nd order filter to smooth the data. It was determined that using 200 Hz data directly from the vehicle IMU outperforms the 40 Hz FSW data rate. Data persistence counter values and acceleration thresholds were balanced in order to meet desired safety and performance. The algorithm proved to exhibit ample safety margin against early detection while under parachutes, and adequate performance upon vehicle splashdown. Fall times from algorithm initiation were also studied, and a backup timer length was chosen to provide a large safety margin, yet still trigger detection before CMUS inflation. This timer serves as a backup to the primary acceleration detection method. Additionally, these parameters were tested for safety on actual flight test data, demonstrating expected safety margins.

Daum, Jared↗

Commitment to Active Allyship Is Required to Address the Lack of Hispanic and Latinx Representation in the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences

In 2021, people of Hispanic and Latinx origin made up 6% of the atmospheric and Earth sciences workforce of the United States, yet they represent 20% of the population. Motivated by this disparity in Hispanic and Latinx representation in the atmospheric and Earth science workforce, this manuscript documents the lack of representation through existing limited demographic data. The analysis presents a clear gap in participation by Hispanic and Latinx people in academic settings, with a widening gap through each education and career stage. Several factors and challenges impacting the representation disparity include the lack of funding for and collaboration with Hispanic-serving institutions, limited opportunities due to immigration status, and limited support for international research collaborations. We highlight the need for actionable steps to address the lack of representation and provide targeted recommendations to federal funding agencies, educational institutions, faculty, and potential employers. While we wait for systemic cultural change from our scientific institutions, grassroots initiatives like those proudly led by the AMS Committee for Hispanic and Latinx Advancement will emerge to address the needs of the Hispanic and Latinx scientific and broader community. We briefly highlight some of those achievements. Lasting cultural change can only happen if our leaders are active allies in the creation of a more diverse, equitable, and inclusive future. Alongside our active allies we will continue to champion for change in our weather, water, and climate enterprise.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

The Coupled Influence of Thermal Physiology and Biotic Interactions on the Distribution and Density of Ant Species along an Elevational Gradient

A fundamental tenet of biogeography is that abiotic and biotic factors interact to shape the distributions of species and the organization of communities, with interactions being more important in benign environments, and environmental filtering more important in stressful environments. This pattern is often inferred using large databases or phylogenetic signal, but physiological mechanisms underlying such patterns are rarely examined. We focused on 18 ant species at 29 sites along an extensive elevational gradient, coupling experimental data on critical thermal limits, null model analyses, and observational data of density and abundance to elucidate factors governing species’ elevational range limits. Thermal tolerance data showed that environmental conditions were likely to be more important in colder, more stressful environments, where physiology was the most important constraint on the distribution and density of ant species. Conversely, the evidence for species interactions was strongest in warmer, more benign conditions, as indicated by our observational data and null model analyses. Our results provide a strong test that biotic interactions drive the distributions and density of species in warm climates, but that environmental filtering predominates at colder, high-elevation sites. Such a pattern suggests that the responses of species to climate change are likely to be context-dependent and more specifically, geographically-dependent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Statistical Treatment of Convolutional Neural Network Superresolution of Inland Surface Wind for Subgrid-Scale Variability Quantification

Abstract Machine learning models have been employed to perform either physics-free data-driven or hybrid dynamical downscaling of climate data. Most of these implementations operate over relatively small downscaling factors because of the challenge of recovering fine-scale information from coarse data. This limits their compatibility with many global climate model outputs, often available between ∼50- and 100-km resolution, to scales of interest such as cloud resolving or urban scales. This study systematically examines the capability of a type of superresolving convolutional neural network (SR-CNNs) to downscale surface wind speed data over land from different coarse resolutions (25-, 48-, and 100-km resolution) to 3 km. For each downscaling factor, we consider three convolutional neural network (CNN) configurations that generate superresolved predictions of fine-scale wind speed, which take between one and three input fields: coarse wind speed, fine-scale topography, and diurnal cycle. In addition to fine-scale wind speeds, probability density function parameters are generated through which sample wind speeds can be generated, accounting for the intrinsic stochasticity of wind speed. For assessing generalization to new data, CNN models are tested on regions with different topography and climate that are unseen during training. The evaluation of superresolved predictions focuses on subgrid-scale variability and the recovery of extremes. Models with coarse wind and fine topography as inputs exhibit the best performance when compared with other model configurations, operating across the same downscaling factor. Our diurnal cycle encoding results in lower out-of-sample generalizability when compared with other input configurations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Adaptive Cyber-Physical Resilience for Building Control Systems

The main goal of the project is to develop an AI-based process layer cybersecurity suite for detection, isolation and mitigation of cyber-attack effects on operation of building energy management systems (BEMS). The following constituent key technologies were developed under the program towards fulfilling the program objectives: (1) developed a high fidelity BEMS testbed for generation of training data and validation of developed technologies; (2) developed a physics informed ML based attack detection and localization module (ADL) capable of detecting high impact stealthy attacks (HISA - attacks causing 30% energy utilization but no immediate visible impact otherwise) with 98% accuracy; (3) developed a methodology to determine ’representative days’ to limit the data required for training; (4) developed a virtual sensing system that can reconstruct affected sensors with 10% error for the same HISA set; (5) developed a resilient model predictive control system that can continue operation of the BEMS without jeopardizing stability for the HISA set; and (6) integrated and deployed all the constituent modules and demonstrated the efficacy of the technology in real-time in a hardware in loop simulation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Journey Over Destination: Differentiable Sensor Placement Enhances Generalization [Poster]

The challenge of reconstructing spatial fields that change over time from limited sensor data has been a focal point for many research studies. Various machine learning methods have been used in attempts to address this complex issue, including convolutional neural networks. All of the proposed methods share a common requirement that the user needs to manually determine the sensor positions. This requirement remains a limiting factor in the ongoing quest for efficient learning and accurate field reconstruction. This study aims to present a method that enables a model to optimize sensor positions via backpropagation, thereby facilitating the model’s exploration of the spatial domain and enhancing sensor positioning effectively. Indexing naturally incorporates discrete decisions. This operation is nondifferentiable which is a requirement for the application of gradient-based optimization methods. We showcased its effectiveness by training an attention-based neural network, which achieved top-tier performance on two separate datasets. To our knowledge, this represents the first fully end-to-end differentiable workflow for enhancing sensor placement within a neural network model.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The UTRC wind energy conversion system performance analysis for horizontal axis wind turbines (WECSPER)

The theory for the UTRC Energy Conversion System Performance Analysis (WECSPER) for the prediction of horizontal axis wind turbine performance is presented. Major features of the analysis are the ability to: (1) treat the wind turbine blades as lifting lines with a prescribed wake model; (2) solve for the wake-induced inflow and blade circulation using real nonlinear airfoil data; and (3) iterate internally to obtain a compatible wake transport velocity and blade loading solution. This analysis also provides an approximate treatment of wake distortions due to tower shadow or wind shear profiles. Finally, selected results of internal UTRC application of the analysis to existing wind turbines and correlation with limited test data are described.

Egolf, T. A.↗

Conservative-coordinate transformations for atmospheric measurements

This lecture describes a technique by which atmospheric measurements of trace species with medium to long lifetimes can be 'coincidentally' compared and validated even though measurements are taken at different locations and different times In other words, the method, under suitable counditions, can remove a large amount of the natural meteorological variability. The technique involves the use of quasi-Lagrangian or conservative coordinates - air parcel tags which are invariant or nearly invariant under the motion of the parcel. The technique is called 'reconstruction', since measurements taken at one location can be reconstructed at different locations. In order to do this, the data are transformed into the conservative coordinates and accumulated. Within the conservative reference frame, much of the meteorological variability is removed. Once enough data are obtained within the system, the observations can be tranformed back into physical space at any location and compared with other measurements. The method by which the trace species data are obtained makes no difference; satellite, balloon, rocket, aircraft and ground-based data all become equivalent and can be intercompared. The conservative-coordinate system not only allows for intercomparison of data, but shows how data can be taken in such a way as to maximize the physical scope of the information. In other words, the method automatically suggests when conditions might be suitable to obtain information with different environmental situations. It also allows for the forecast of constituent fields using only the meteorological forecasts and limited observational data.

Schoeberl, M. R.↗

The Effect of Clouds Upon Limb Scattered Radiances and the Retrieval of Ozone Profiles Using These Radiances

The use of limb scattered radiance profiles to retrieve ozone profiles is currently being investigated. The goal is to produce ozone profiles with better vertical resolution than is available with the Backscattered Ultraviolet (BUV) technique and with much greater spatial and temporal coverage than with the solar occultation method (i.e. SAGE II). This method, which uses UV and visible light scattered from the earth's limb, has recently been proven to work for clear sky cases with data from the STS-87 flight of the Shuttle Ozone Sounding Limb Experiment/Limb Ozone Retrieval Experiment (SOLSE/LORE). As to be expected, clouds have a substantial impact upon the limb radiance (increasing the radiance as much as 80-100% is some cases). Here we use a variety of radiative transfer models and limited SOLSE/LORE data to investigate the effect of clouds upon the limb radiance at wavelengths used in the ozone retrieval (approximately 600 nm). Though the presence of clouds can greatly increase the limb radiance, they have a minimal effect upon the retrieved ozone profile, since the retrieval uses a differential absorption technique.

Flittner, D. E.↗

Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections for Exploration Missions: Uncertainty Reduction and Mitigation

In this paper we discuss expected lifetime excess cancer risks for astronauts returning from exploration class missions. For the first time we make a quantitative assessment of uncertainties in cancer risk projections for space radiation exposures. Late effects from the high charge and energy (HZE) ions present in the galactic cosmic rays including cancer and the poorly understood risks to the central nervous system constitute the major risks. Methods used to project risk in low Earth orbit are seen as highly uncertain for projecting risks on exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data available for estimating HZE ion risks. Cancer risk projections are described as a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective error distributions represents the lack of knowledge in each factor to quantify risk projection overall uncertainty. Cancer risk analysis is applied to several exploration mission scenarios. At solar minimum, the number of days in space where career risk of less than the limiting 3% excess cancer mortality can be assured at a 95% confidence level is found to be only of the order of 100 days.

Cucinotta, Francis↗

TechEdSat-13: The First Flight of a Neuromorphic Processor

Neuromorphic processors, inspired by the wiring of the brain, permit certain classes of Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning (AI/ML) algorithms to run far more efficiently. Ultimately, such systems will make the small- and nano-satellite platforms even more useful in terms of greatly improved power, communication and internal data management. In addition, on-board processing of images and data will help to not only rapidly interpret the information, but also reduce the amount of data that needs to be transmitted to ground stations. This initial flight experiment uses the Intel/Loihi processor combined with a custom interface board and three communication channels to run the AI/ML scripts. These will vary with increasing length and complexity during the course of the mission. The algorithms will use the (at first) limited sensor data to ‘learn’ - with comparisons to similar architecture in comparable ground experiments. Some of the applications for successor flights in the TES-n flight series include Cognitive Communications, whereby the overall communication system is optimized per overflight – by optimizing timing and data transmission functions. Lastly, the performance of the Loihi 14nm process technology will be monitored for performance in the LEO radiation environment, thus looking for induced hardware and software errors. This information will help guide future radiation protection techniques to extend the lifetime and overall utility. The TES-13 is a 3U nanosat successfully launched by the Virgin Orbit Launcher-1 on January 13, 2022, and will presage more flights and AI/ML applications to come.

TechEdSat↗

Squeezing Every Last 'Bit' of Information from Enceladus Mass Spectrometry

Potential opportunities to return to Enceladus in Discovery and Flagship class missions inspire development of next-generation instruments and creative approaches to sample collection, sample analysis, and data analysis and transmission strategies. Mass spectrometers (MS) are ideally suited to future Enceladus missions due to their analytical power in identifying a range of molecular and ionic compositions – including complex organics – and potentially astrobiologically-important features such as isotope ratios, chirality, and enantiomeric excess. However, long communication delays from Enceladus and limited bandwidth limits the data transmission from these higher-data-volume instruments, likely delaying mission-related response to new data. We explore the utility of data science and machine learning (ML) on isotope ratio (IR)MS data collected from laboratory analogs of Enceladus to: 1) process data quickly for rapid ground-based analyses, 2) understand if compositional and biosignature information could be extracted from IRMS data, and 3) evaluate whether onboard ML techniques could improve sample analysis, cadence, and transmission prioritization. Laboratory analogs analyzed isotopes of volatile CO2 that interacted with seawaters of varying composition, and include both abiotic and biotic (microbially-influenced) experiments. Enceladus’s alkaline oceans promote speciation of carbon into multiple forms (e.g., H2CO3 / CO2, HCO3-, and CO32-), each of which could be isotopically fractionated by abiotic or biotic reactions. Large (>2‰) changes in carbon isotopes (δ13C) are observed from some biotic experiments inoculated with complex microbial ecosystems relative to the abiotic seawaters. ML training and classification suggests that microbial samples can be distinguished from abiotic samples, yet that a broad range of microbial experiments are necessary to train ML models to cover a range of complexities including disequilibria, and isotopic and compositional fractionation.

geochemistry↗

Detection of dust impacts by the Voyager planetary radio astronomy experiment

The Planetary Radio Astronomy (PRA) instrument detected large numbers of dust particles during the Voyager 2 encounter with Neptune. The signatures of these impacts are analyzed in some detail. The major conclusions are described. PRA detects impacts from all over the spacecraft body, not just the PRA antennas. The signatures of individual impacts last substantially longer than was expected from complementary Plasma Wave Subsystem (PWS) data acquired by another Voyager experiment. The signatures of individual impacts demonstrate very rapid fluctuations in signal strength, so fast that the data are limited by the speed of response of the instrument. The PRA detects events at a rate consistently lower than does the Plasma Wave subsystem. Even so, the impact rate is so great near the inbound crossing of the ring plane that no reliable estimate of impact rate can be made for this period. The data are consistent with the presence of electrons accelerated by ions within an expanding plasma cloud from the point of impact. An ancillary conclusion is that the anomalous appearance of data acquired at 900 kHz appears to be due to an error in processing the PRA data prior to their delivery rather than due to overload of the PRA instrument.

Evans, David R.↗

TechEdSat-13: The First Flight of an AI/ML Neuromorphic Processor

Neuromorphic processors, inspired by the wiring of the brain, permit certain classes of Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning (AI/ML) algorithms to run far more efficiently. Ultimately, such systems will make the small- and nano-satellite platforms even more useful in terms of greatly improved power, communication and internal data management. In addition, on-board processing of images and data will help to not only rapidly interpret the information, but also reduce the amount of data that needs to be transmitted to ground stations. This initial flight experiment uses the Intel/ Loihi processor combined with a custom interface board and three communication channels to run the AI/ML scripts. These will vary with increasing length and complexity during the course of the mission. The algorithms will use the (at first) limited sensor data to ‘learn’ - with comparisons to similar architecture in comparable ground experiments. Some of the applications for successor flights in the TES-n flight series include Cognitive Communications, whereby the overall communication system is optimized per overflight – by optimizing timing and data transmission functions. Lastly, the performance of the Loihi 14nm process technology will be monitored for performance in the LEO radiation environment, thus looking for induced hardware and software errors. This information will help guide future radiation protection techniques to extend the lifetime and overall utility. The TES-13 is a 3U nanosat successfully launched by the Virgin Orbit Launcher-1 on January 13, 2022, and will presage more flights and AI/ML applications to come.

TechEdSat↗

Nuclear Data Sheets for A=194

Experimental nuclear structure and decay data are evaluated for all of 14 known nuclides of mass 194 (Ta, W, Re, Os, Ir, Pt, Au, Hg, Tl, Pb, Bi, Po, At, Rn). Detailed evaluated spectroscopic information is presented for each reaction and decay experiment, and by combining all the available data, recommended values are provided for energies, spins and parities and half-lives of levels, together with energies, branching ratios and multipolarities of gamma radiations from the levels, and characteristics of beta and alpha radiations in radioactive decays. No excited states have yet been identified in 194 Ta, 194 W, and 194 Rn. Only limited spectroscopic data are available for 194 Re, with a 45–μs isomer identified, but its absolute energy yet to be determined. Only two levels at unknown absolute energies are reported for 194 At, both of which are isomeric but neither can be unambiguously identified as the ground state. Data are scarce for 194 Os, 194 Bi and 194 Po, while 194 Pt, 194 Au, 194 Hg, 194 Tl and 194 Pb are well studied through decays and reactions. For 194 Ir, although a major (n, γ), E=thermal study and two particle-transfer studies provide large amounts of spectral data, still several problematic issues are found in the assignment of multipolarities for the secondary gamma transitions in the (n, γ) study by 2008Ba25, 1998Ba85 and 1998Ba42, all from the same group. Some issues have been resolved by the evaluators, but we suggest that further experimental work is needed on 194 Ir structure to resolve standing issues, and verify the conclusions made by 2008Ba25. Furthermore, our attempt to contact the prime authors of the 2008Ba25 paper was not successful. The present work supersedes all the earlier evaluations of A=194 nuclides by 2006Si17, 1996Br26, 1989Si01 and 1972Au11.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Uncovering heterogeneous intercommunity disease transmission from neutral allele frequency time series

The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the need for accurate epidemic forecasting to predict pathogen spread, evolution, and evaluate intervention strategies. Forecast reliability hinges on detailed knowledge of disease transmission across population segments, which may be inferred from contact surveys or mobility data. However, these indirect approaches make it difficult to estimate rare transmissions between socially or geographically distant communities. We show that the steep ramp-up of genome sequencing surveillance during the pandemic can be leveraged to directly identify transmission patterns between geographically defined communities. Our approach uses a hidden Markov model to infer the fraction of infections a community imports from others based on how rapidly allele frequencies in the focal community converge to those in the donor communities. Applying this method to SARS-CoV-2 sequencing data from England and the United States, we uncover networks of intercommunity transmission that reflect geographical relationships while exposing significant long-range interactions. The scaling of importation rate with distance is consistent across both countries, yet weaker than expected based on mobility data, highlighting limitations of indirect inference. We show that transmission patterns can change between waves of variants of concern and analyze how the inferred heterogeneity in intercommunity transmission impacts evolutionary forecasts. While applied here to geographically defined communities, our approach could be applied to those defined by other traits (e.g., age, socioeconomic status), provided time-series data can be stratified accordingly. Overall, our study highlights population genomic time series data as a crucial record of epidemiological interactions, which can be deciphered using tree-free inference methods.

Okada, Takashi [Department of Physics; University ↗

Approach to establishing the effect of aeroelasticity on aerodynamic characteristics of the space shuttle orbiter

The static aeroelastic effects on the longitudinal stability and elevon/aileron effectiveness of the space transportation system (STS) Space Shuttle orbiter were estimated by a simplified approach called the elevon torsional stiffness (ETS) method. This method employs rigid model wind tunnel test results to predict aeroelastic effects. Lateral/directional stability and rudder effectiveness were based on results of a wind tunnel test in which a flexible tail model was used. Comparisons with selective flight data are made in this paper. Results of correlations with flight data (although limited at the present time) verify the predicted aeroelastic effects for the orbiter. The orbiter's structural characteristics are such that the effects of aeroelasticity, whether estimated using analytical techniques or simplified methods, do not appear to affect the vehicle performance to any great extent. The large amount of scatter in the flight-extracted data made verification of the aeroelastic corrections very difficult. Generally, the simplified elevon torsional stiffness method provided better correlation with flight test results than he analytical method and reduced the verification effort and cost.

Schlosser, D. C.↗