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Total metals, carbon, nitrogen & anion concentration data; Slate River & East River floodplains, Crested Butte, CO; May 2022-October 2022

This data package includes processed and undiluted measurements for metal, total carbon, total nitrogen, and anion concentrations from pore water (groundwater) and surface water samples from the Slate River and East River floodplains of Crested Butte, CO, focus field sites for the SLAC Floodplain Hydro-Biogeochemistry SFA. The data was generated as part of the work targeting the overarching research question for the SLAC SFA: How do ubiquitous subsurface interfaces mediate molecular-scale biogeochemical processes and groundwater quality in floodplains and watersheds? Samples were collected between May and October of 2022. These measurements were all recorded at the Arizona Laboratory for Emerging Contaminants (ALEC) at the University of Arizona located in Tucson, AZ. Groundwater samples were extracted from a network of installed rhizon (Rhizosphere Research Products, part no. 19.60.21F, 0.6 micrometer mesh size) and piezometer wells within the river floodplain. All water samples were shaded from sun exposure during extraction from the subsurface and preserved at 4C until measured at ALEC.Analysis by ICP-MS (metals):Measurements for total metals were made on the Agilent 7700x ICP-MS (for total metals) – Agilent Technologies, Santa Clara, CA. The analytical QA/QC protocol was adapted from US EPA Method 200.8 for analysis by ICP-MS. Calibration standards were prepared from multi-element stock solutions (SPEX Certiprep, Metuchen, NJ). Calibration curves include at least 7 points with correlation coefficients > 0.995. The QC protocol includes a continuing calibration blank (CCB), a continuing calibration verification (CCV) solution and at least one quality control sample (QCS) to be analyzed just after calibration and again after every 12 samples and at the completion of the run. The QCS solutions are from an independent source, such as NIST SRM 1643e - Trace elements in water, or QCS solutions from High Purity Standards (Charleston, SC). Acceptable QC responses must be between 90 and 110% of the certified value. Lastly, a suitable internal standard (usually Rh, In, Ga or Ge) is added using on-line addition into the sample line and mixing tee.Analysis by Shimadzu TOC-L (TOC/TN):The TOC-L system is a combustion technique where liquid samples are injected and combusted into CO2 for carbon detection by non-dispersive infrared (NDIR) and NO for detection by chemiluminescence. A calibration curve using five standard solutions between 0.1 and 7 ppm for carbon and 0.05 and 3.5 ppm for nitrogen is made for each type of measurement with a linearity >0.99. All samples, standards, and QC’s are prepared in 24mL scintillation vials that have been baked for 4hrs at 475 Cº and made using RO water (18.2mΩ). QC’s include a calibration blank check (CCB), continuing calibration check (CCC), and a certified reference material check (CRM). All QC’s are within ±10% error and are run before and after each batch of samples. Samples are diluted and rerun if any measurement concentrations are above the highest standard.Analysis by Ion Chromatography (Anions):The instrument used is the Thermo Scientific Dionex ICS-6000 using AS+AG22 column set for anion analysis with sodium carbonate eluent. A calibration curve using five standard solutions between 5 and 250 umol/L is made with a linearity >0.99. Standards and QC’s are prepared in 15mL polypropylene conical tubes, pipetted along with the samples into 1.5mL polypropylene vials. Dilutions are made using RO water (18.2mΩ). QC’s include a calibration blank check (CCB), continuing calibration check (CCC), and a certified reference material check (CRM). All QC’s are within ±10% error and are run before and after each batch of samples. Samples are diluted and rerun if any measurement concentrations are above the highest standard.All files are in csv format.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Heavy Oil Polymer EOR in the Challenging Alaskan Arctic - It Works!

Under co-sponsorship of the US Department of Energy and Hilcorp Alaska LLC the first ever polymer field pilot commenced on 8/28/2018 in the Schrader Bluff heavy oil reservoir at the Milne Point Field on Alaska North Slope (ANS). The primary objective of the pilot is to prove the efficacy of polymer Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) to unlock the vast heavy oil resources on ANS. More than two and half years after startup, the polymer injection, supporting laboratory experiments and simulation studies steadily continue. The pilot started injecting hydrolyzed polyacrylamide (HPAM), at a concentration of 1,750 ppm to achieve a target viscosity of 45 cP, into the two horizontal injectors in the flood pattern. Production is monitored in the two horizontal producers. Based on laboratory measurements of polymer viscosity at reservoir conditions, the team decided to reduce polymer concentration to 1,200 ppm since July 2020 in an effort to control injection pressure and optimize polymer utilization. Quality control (QC) on the field ensures uniform polymer solution properties. Representative rock and fluid systems and test conditions are utilized in the corefloods on polymer retention, effect of injection water salinity, polymer loading, and their combinations on oil recovery. A history matched reservoir simulation model for forecasting oil recovery was developed on the basis of all the available field data. Field concerns related to the post-polymer breakthrough impact on flow assurance is addressed via specialized laboratory tests. Notwithstanding early operational disruptions and hydration issues, continuous polymer injection in both injectors has been achieved. To date, 950,000 lbs of polymer or 2 million barrels of polymer solution, equating to 13% of total pore volume (PV), has been placed in the flood pattern, serving as an effective indicator of adequate polymer injectivity. So far, the success of polymer EOR is evident from drastically reduced water cut in the producers, an estimated incremental 1,000 bopd over waterflood, and a favorable polymer utilization of 1.7 lbs/barrel of incremental oil. Polymer breakthrough was observed 26 months after the start of polymer injection. Main observations from corefloods are unusually high polymer retention values in some cases and a positive response to low salinity water. Although the heterogeneity in the flood pattern and exceptionally low water cut pose some challenges, persistent novel and justifiable simulation approaches have resulted in a robust history matched model. Experimental results on produced fluids treatment provide operational guidance for improved oil-water separation and mitigation of heater tube fouling. The ongoing success of the pilot is a key indicator of bringing the team ever closer to meeting the project’s primary objective. The encouraging results of the pilot is one of the drivers that has provided the impetus to apply polymer EOR throughout the Milne Point Field, which would increase oil recovery and extend the economic life of the Trans Alaska Pipeline System. The scientific knowledge, including the many lessons learned from this pilot also has referential value for other potential heavy oil EOR projects throughout the world. The collected data, operational lessons learned, and the overall success of the pilot are summarized in the paper.

None, None↗

CONCEPT OF A POLARIZED POSITRON SOURCE FOR CEBAF

Positron beams would provide new and meaningful probes for the experimental program at the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (JLab), including but not limited to future hadronic physics and dark matter experiments. Critical requirements involve generating positron beams with a high degree of spin polarization, sufficient intensity and a continuous-wave (CW) bunch train compatible with acceleration to 12 GeV at the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF). To address these requirements, a polarized positron injector based upon the bremsstrahlung of an intense CW spin polarized electron beam is considered*. First a polarized electron beam line provides >1 mA of polarized electrons at ~120 MeV to a high-power target for positron production. Next, a second beam line collects, shapes and aligns the spin of positrons for users. Finally, the positron beam is matched into the CEBAF acceptance for acceleration and transport to the end stations with energies up to 12 GeV. An optimized layout to provide positrons beams with intensity >100 nA (polarized) or intensity >3 µA (unpolarized) will be discussed in this poster.

Habet, S. H.↗

Physics Division Strategic Plan Fiscal Years 2020-2024

The vision of the Physics Division (PHY) at Argonne National Laboratory is to continue enhancing its role as a world-leading institution in basic nuclear physics research and its applications. Key to this vision is for PHY to continue to safely and effectively operate and evolve the capabilities of the Argonne Tandem Linac Accelerator System (ATLAS) facility to best serve its users. ATLAS is the Department of Energy (DOE) accelerator facility for low-energy nuclear physics research. The research carried out by PHY covers many themes in contemporary science but can be distilled into five areas of focus. These themes are interconnected, with continuously evolving synergies between the various groups and facilities in PHY and the broader Laboratory. This five-year strategic plan serves to illustrate our current capabilities and new directions related to these five areas of focus (ATLAS also develops an independent strategic plan): Accelerator research and design. The goal of this theme is to design, fabricate, test, and implement novel accelerator systems, with a focus on high-intensity ion and electron systems. These R&D activities have led to enhancements in the ATLAS accelerator system. Among others, the division’s accelerator systems are in use or planned for use at Fermilab, the Advanced Photon Source, and in a broad variety of applications at the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams (FRIB). Atom trapping and fundamental symmetries. The goal of this theme is to explore and exploit the uses of advanced laser cooling and trapping techniques to manipulate atoms. There are three main areas of focus. First is in the application of the atom trap trace analysis (ATTA) technique for age determination of groundwater and ice by using radio-krypton dating. The next two trapping-based programs involve tests of fundamental symmetries in nature: the cooling and trapping of radium-225 with the aim of determining limits on an observation of its electric dipole moment and precision measurements of the beta decay properties of helium-6 to set limits on the tensor coupling constant. This is complemented by measurements of similar properties in lithium-8 and boron-8. Nuclear astrophysics. The goal of this theme is to enhance our understanding of how elements are created in the universe via explosive nucleosynthesis and how stars evolve. To meet the challenges of this theme, many of the capabilities of ATLAS are being enhanced, including the development of new beams through a new in-flight separator (RAISOR) and the anticipated neutron-generator upgrade of the Californium Rare Isotope Breeder Upgrade facility (nuCARIBU). These are coupled to state-of-the-art instruments such as the Canadian Penning Trap, Helical Orbit Spectrometer, Gammasphere, GRETINA, Multi-Sampling Ionization Chamber, the Fragment Mass Analyzer, and Argonne Gas-filled Fragment Analyzer, and a new low-background experimental area for decay studies. Nuclear structure. The goal of this theme is to understand the structure of nuclei, both stable and radioactive, in terms of single-particle properties, their shapes, and the dynamics governing reactions between them. These include questions such as what are the limits of nuclear stability and what are the properties of super heavy nuclei. As with the nuclear astrophysics theme, the capabilities of ATLAS, guided by the ATLAS user community, are continuously being enhanced to this end. The Division has strategic initiatives to play a leading role in the development of instrumentation and research programs at the FRIB. Quantum chromodynamics (QCD) and hadron physics. The goal of this theme is to lead major research programs focused on revealing the quark and gluon structure of protons, neutrons, nuclei, and short-lived mesons and baryons. These involve major programs at Jefferson Lab, Fermilab, and smaller facilities. They are complemented by theoretical endeavors centered on the question of how hadrons and their properties emerge from QCD. Out of these activities arise strategic initiatives to play a major role in the forthcoming Electron-Ion Collider (EIC).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Defending the Homeland: Growing Foreign Challenges to the U.S. Missile Defense Posture

The Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) for Policy requested that Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory conduct a Congressionally directed study on homeland missile defense, pursuant to Section 1692 of the fiscal year 2020 National Defense Authorization Act. In accordance with the statutory language, this study considers whether the security benefits obtained by deployment of homeland missile defenses of the United States are undermined or counterbalanced by adverse reactions of potential adversaries, and considers the effectiveness of homeland missile defense efforts of the United States to deter the development of ballistic missiles. Almost a half-century has elapsed since the United States and the Soviet Union signed the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, and almost two decades since the former withdrew. Since withdrawing, the United States has sought to develop and deploy a layered missile defense system to defend against regional threats to U.S. and allied interests abroad and to counter limited threats to the U.S. homeland. As such, missile defense supports key national defense policy objectives. Protecting the U.S. homeland, forces abroad, allies, and partners. Deterring attacks against the United States, its allies, and partners. Assuring allies an strengthening U.S. diplomatic activities in peacetime and crisis. We offer five key findings: 1. The primary benefit of the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system is the protection it provides the U.S. homeland against a limited but evolving rogue-state missile threat. While this system has never been tested in combat, it appears thus far to have effectively paced North Korea’s development and deployment of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). In the absence of such a defensive capability, the United States would likely have been more heavily exposed to North Korean actions, would have operated at a much higher-risk posture, and would have had less negotiating room with which to navigate coercive tactics and crises. Its allies would have been more concerned about U.S. willingness in time of crisis and war to run the risks of protecting them. The GMD system also serves as a hedge against Iranian breakout. 2. Potential adversaries continue to develop long-range ballistic missiles despite deployment of a U.S. homeland missile defense system. This includes both rogue states and major power rivals whose long-range missile programs predated the deployment of U.S. missile defenses. While North Korea has continued its long-range missile developments and achieved an intercontinental capability, Iran has not yet reached this threshold. The broader proliferation of long-range missiles anticipated in the late 1990s has not materialized. 3. While Russia has used the existence of a U.S. homeland missile defense system as a justification for its substantial and continuing weapon modernization program, neither Russian force modernization nor the limited U.S. homeland missile defense system has altered the strategic balance. Russia has long considered U.S. missile defenses—both theater and homeland—as directed against its strategic forces and as a capability that could rapidly advance, thereby eroding Russian confidence in its nuclear deterrent. Russia’s political and military actions appear excessive and negatively impact areas such as arms control, but they do not undermine the primary benefit of the U.S. system cited in Key Finding 1. 4. China’s expansion and diversification of nuclear and missile forces has been influenced by its concerns about U.S. homeland missile defense, but those concerns are only one of many factors in China’s force planning. Although China’s actions to preserve and expand its assured retaliation prospects have not fundamentally altered the strategic balance, its buildup and lack of transparency about its force modernization goals are troubling. Taken together, the aggregate pattern of China’s modernization activities over the past two decades strongly suggests a concerted effort to develop a modern military force commensurate with its intended geopolitical status. Whatever China’s legacy concerns over the survivability of its strategic nuclear forces, its ability to overwhelm the GMD system appears intact today and will be further strengthened in the years ahead as it continues its long-term modernization program. China’s political and military actions negatively affect U.S. security interests but do not undermine the primary benefit of the U.S. system cited in Key Finding 1. 5. The basic finding that benefits have not so far been undermined by adverse reactions is a function of circumstances that are increasingly in flux. The existing GMD-centered system is under increasing pressure from the pace and scope of North Korean missile deployments. The proposed “layered” system seeks to mitigate this impending capability gap in the near term and to complement future capabilities, such as the Next Generation Interceptor, when they come online. Given the pace of U.S. missile defense developments since 2000, it is possible that adversary advances in capability will outpace the U.S. system’s ability to adapt. Additionally, because this layered system is in principle more readily scaled, it will almost certainly be viewed skeptically by China and Russia. In a context of growing great-power security competition, the Department of Defense (DoD) should consider undertaking a broader net assessment of the U.S., Russian, and Chinese force balance.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

U.S. Renewables Portfolio Standards 2021 Status Update: Early Release

Berkeley Lab’s annual status report on U.S. renewables portfolio standards (RPS) provides an overview of key trends associated with U.S. state RPS policies. The report, published in slide-deck form, describes recent legislative revisions, key policy design features, compliance with interim targets, past and projected impacts on renewables development, and compliance costs. The 2021 Early Release, published in lieu of a 2020 edition, presents historical data through year-end 2019, with some limited results for the year 2020. Key trends from this edition of the report include the following: Evolution of state RPS programs: States continue to refine and revise their RPS policies. Among other significant changes since the start of 2019, eight states enacted higher RPS targets or created new clean-energy/zero-carbon targets (AZ, DC, MD, NM, NV, VA, WA), in most cases setting targets equal to at least 50% of retail sales. Historical impacts on renewables development: Roughly half of all growth in U.S. renewable electricity (RE) generation and capacity since 2000 is associated with state RPS requirements, though that percentage has declined in recent years, representing 23% of all U.S. RE capacity additions in 2019. However, within particular regions-namely, the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic-RPS policies continue to serve a central role in motivating RE growth. Future RPS demand and incremental needs: RPS demand growth through 2030 will require roughly 90 GW of new RE capacity and will require total U.S. non-hydro RE generation to reach 17% of electricity sales (compared to 12% in 2019). Relative to EIA projections, this amounts to roughly one-third of projected RE growth over the next decade. RPS target achievement to-date: States have generally met their interim RPS targets in recent years, with only a few exceptions reflecting unique, state-specific issues. REC pricing trends: Prices for NEPOOL Class I RECs rose steeply over 2019, reaching $40/MWh and remaining at roughly that level over 2020. PJM Tier I REC prices continued to rise at a modest pace over the course of 2020, reaching $10/MWh by year-end. Prices for solar RECs remained relatively stable over 2020, and continue to exhibit wide variation across states, with the highest prices ($200-450/MWh) in NJ, MA, and DC.RPS compliance costs and cost caps: RPS compliance costs in 2019 averaged roughly 2.6% of retail electricity bills in RPS states, compared to 2.3% in 2018, with costs in most states ranging from 0.5% to 4.5% of retail electricity bills.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

In-Sodium Testing of a Prototype Thermoacoustic Power Sensor for Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactors

The ultimate goal of this project is to develop and demonstrate a thermoacoustic power sensor (TAPS) for Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactors (SFRs), with potential application also envisioned to other nuclear technologies such as Lead-Cooled Fast Reactors (LFRs), Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs), in addition to Light Water Reactors (LWRs). The project was led by Westinghouse Electric Company, LLC (Westinghouse) and carried out in collaboration with Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and the University of Pittsburgh. A TAPS is a passive (self-powered), non-invasive (wireless) sensor envisioned for measuring key parameters, such as local temperature and neutron flux, in a nuclear reactor core. The sensor generates pressure waves (i.e., sound waves) with a frequency and amplitude dependent upon nuclear operating conditions (coolant temperature or power changes). The acoustic waves are able to travel through the core and associated structures, and reach to the sensor network placed outside and/or inside of the reactor vessel. These sensors require a very small amount of power which, during loss of power events, can be provided, for example, by harvesting gamma radiation energy, thus resulting in a monitoring system that can function both during normal operation and during loss of power events. Westinghouse and the University of Pittsburgh designed and fabricated TAPS prototypes for Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) to carry out in-sodium testing to evaluate the effects of sodium on the TAPS and the performance of the TAPS technique in sodium. Argonne received a TAPS prototype from Westinghouse, and the prototype was modified such that it can be installed into a test vessel and function in sodium at elevated temperature without potentially leaking. A water mockup test apparatus was constructed to validate proper working of the prototype. An instrumentation and control (I&C) system, running on the National Instruments (NI) LabView platform, was developed to: 1) operate both the water mockup test and the in-sodium test facility; and 2) process and analyze the received acoustic signals from an array of accelerometers and the Argonne sodium-submersible high-temperature acoustic sensor. The prototype was successfully tested in a water bath at different temperatures. Water mockup tests demonstrated that the TAPS prototype is working properly and its resonance frequency changes linearly with the coolant (water) temperature. A TAPS test apparatus was constructed and integrated with the upgraded Under-Sodium Viewing (USV) sodium test facility. The integrated USV-TAPS sodium test facility has been operational. The TAPS prototype and a high-temperature sodium-submersible acoustic sensor (SSAS) developed by Argonne were both installed inside the TAPS test vessel. Being operated within argon cover gas under ambient conditions, the TAPS prototype demonstrated that it was functioning properly with a resonance frequency at 1407.2 Hz, which was successfully detected by the accelerometers mounted on the external wall of the vessel and the high-temperature SSAS installed inside the vessel. After successfully transferring sodium into the vessel, in-sodium tests of the prototype were conducted. Tests of the TAPS prototype demonstrated that the resonance frequency of the TAPS changes linearly with respect to the temperature difference between the interior of the TAPS and bulk sodium. The early tests showed that the TAPS prototype could not establish a continuous and consistent resonance in sodium. The resonance diminished before the prototype reached its operating temperature. A signal postprocessor was added to the DAQ module latterly to isolate interferences, enhance signal conditioning, improve peak detection, and generate resonance frequency versus temperature plots. After testing in molten sodium and immersion at higher temperature for several weeks, the TAPS prototype was able to establish a continuous resonance. Performance evaluation of the TAPS prototype was then conducted in sodium. The tests included the investigation of 1) the effects of the temperature difference between the TAPS and bulk sodium, 2) the effects of sodium flowrate; and 3) the performance of the different sensor-receiver systems positioned inside or outside the vessel. Results of a test demonstrated that, with limited sodium circulation, a continuous and consistent resonance of the TAPS prototype was established occasionally. The tests also demonstrated that, because of the nature of detection principles and mounting methods, the high temperature SSAS is more affected by acoustic noise, while accelerometers are more affected by vibrations, in the test environment. It is unknown why the TAPS prototype only occasionally established a continuous and consistent resonance when the TAPS temperature reached its operating temperature in molten sodium, and why it ultimately failed to resonate at all. A failure modes assessment was conducted and a few potential causes of failure were identified. Different post in-sodium tests were conducted to obtain additional information potentially relevant to the cause of the failure. Nondestructive evaluation techniques are suggested to examine the internal integrity as well as the gas mixture of the prototype. If they prove inconclusive, the prototype should be cut open to conduct a thorough inspection of its internal integrity and determine the state of the gas mixture.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Annual Status Report (FY 2020): Performance Assessment for the Disposal of Low Level Waste in the 200 East Area Burial Grounds

This annual review provides the projected dose estimates of radionuclide inventories disposed in the 200 East Area Low-Level Waste Burial Grounds (LLBGs) since September 26, 1988. These estimates are calculated using the original dose methodology developed in the performance assessment (PA) analysis (WHC-SD-WM-TI-730). The estimates are compared with requirements of DOE O 435.1 Chg 1 and performance objectives defined in companion documents DOE M 435.1-1 Chg 1and DOE-STD-5002-2017). All performance objectives are currently satisfied, and operational waste acceptance criteria (HNF-EP-0063) and waste acceptance practices continue to be sufficient to maintain compliance with performance objectives. Inventory estimates and associated dose estimates from future waste disposal actions are unchanged from previous years’ evaluations that indicate potential impacts well below performance objectives; therefore, future compliance with DOE O 435.1 Chg 1 is expected. A new PA study was initiated in fiscal year (FY) 2019 for evaluation of active disposal sites within the 200 East and 200 West Areas (Trench 94 in 200 East; Trenches 31 and 34 in 200 West) due to extended time elapsing between the current annual status report and the original PA for the active disposal sites. The new PA for the active disposal sites is expected to be completed in FY 2021. Within the active burial grounds in the 200 East Area, low-level waste and mixed low-level waste will continue to be disposed of in the dedicated U.S. Navy reactor compartment trench at the 218-E-12B Burial Ground (Trench 94). During this reporting period (FY 2020, from October 1, 2019, through September 30, 2020), two reactor compartments were disposed in Trench 94. Results from sorption experiments are summarized for this reporting period to quantify the efficacy of concrete waste forms in retaining key radionuclides (e.g., technetium-99 and iodine-129). The test durations ranged from 1 to 3 months. Continued groundwater monitoring of the 200 East Area LLBGs indicates no groundwater contamination due to LLBG waste. Current assumptions about future land use at the Hanford Site are consistent with PA analysis1 assumptions of a post-closure facility that will not be degraded by human activity. The LLBGs are located in an area identified for waste management and containment of residual contamination. This area will remain after final environmental remediation and the proposed shrinkage of Hanford Site boundaries to small sections within the 200 East and 200 West Areas in the Central Plateau (DOE/EIS-0391). The current closure plan for the LLBGs (DOE/RL-2000-707) estimates that the 200 East LLBGs will be closed in the 2050 timeframe. The Disposal Authorization Statement, other technical basis documents, and the radioactive waste management basis are of continued adequacy to meet the performance objectives of DOE O 435.1 Chg 1. Overall, there are no substantive changes to primary PA assumptions nor the PA analysis conclusion; therefore, compliance with DOE O 435.1 Chg 1 and the Disposal Authorization Statement is maintained.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Adaptive Site Management Strategies for the Hanford Central Plateau Groundwater

Adaptive site management (ASM) is a systematic and iterative management approach that can be used to expedite the remediation of large and/or complex sites. ASM is defined as a formal and systematic project or site management approach centered on rigorous site planning and a firm understanding of site conditions and uncertainties, using science and technology to routinely re-evaluate and prioritize site remedial actions and characterization activities. The goal of the approach is to create a framework of structured and continuous planning, implementation, and assessment processes that accommodates new information and changing site conditions to develop effective and efficient cleanup approaches that achieves the required outcome(s) while optimizing costs, cleanup timeframe, and performance. Central to ASM is an evolving conceptual site model (CSM). Over time, incremental reductions in uncertainty associated with the CSM will occur, while supporting continued progress toward site cleanup and closure through remedy optimization and evaluation. ASM has the potential to expedite cleanup for the Central Plateau area at Hanford through a planned and systematic approach for reducing uncertainty with targeted characterization activities, while continuing remediation activities that advance cleanup for key risk-driving contaminants. A core component of cleanup within the Central Plateau is the 200 West Pump-and-Treat (P&T) system. Even with an active P&T remedy, uncertainty exists with respect to plume distributions, total mass in the aquifer, and currently known continuing sources. Additional uncertainty is associated with multiple contaminant source locations in the vadose zone, which have the potential to create new groundwater plumes in the absence of any source control measures, although not all contaminant fluxes to groundwater will result in contaminant concentrations above cleanup levels. Collectively, these uncertainties need to be addressed in the CSM to support effective and efficient site progress toward cleanup goal(s). Other nontechnical factors that may warrant an ASM approach at the Hanford Central Plateau are associated with the formation of operable units (OUs) used to manage cleanup. With the exception of the 200-ZP-1 OU, the three remaining groundwater OUs only have interim action records of decision. Nine vadose zone source area OUs are also in the early stages of the remedial investigation and feasibility study process, with pending characterization and technology identification activities. A set of proposed site objectives for the Central Plateau are provided in this document as an initial consideration/example and basis for discussion for ASM implementation. These example site objectives were selected with the goal of maintaining protectiveness at the Columbia River through confinement of contaminant plumes within an administratively controlled area below existing surface waste sites and waste disposal facilities. Although site decision makers and regulators need to provide concurrence, these site objectives are used in this document to describe the elements of an ASM approach, including selection of interim objectives and a long-term adaptive management plan. Interim objectives are also defined to yield measurable incremental progress toward the overall site goals. This document identifies initial technical considerations for developing an ASM framework for the Central Plateau cleanup decisions. These considerations are intended to facilitate more specific decisions, such as objectives, near- and long-term actions, and performance metrics, to develop an overall approach that maintains protectiveness but recognizes the uncertainty, long timeframe, and technical challenges that need to be considered in selecting, implementing, and managing remediation at the Hanford Central Plateau.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Oxidation Behavior and Property Degradation of Nuclear Graphites

During its multidecade operation in the core of nuclear reactors, graphite components are subjected to aggressive and continuous exposure to a high field of ionizing and neutron irradiation, high temperature, and various types of present and postulated chemical attacks. High density, high crystallinity polygranular synthetic graphite is unique among other materials for its extraordinary capacity of resisting and adapting to the aggression inflicted by high temperature, high energy neutron bombardment and ionizing gamma radiation. But, as a carbonaceous material, even though of very high purity, graphite is reactive towards common oxidizing agents: oxygen, carbon dioxide, water. Safe operation of HTGRs relies, among other aspects, on engineered safeguard systems for efficient and continuous protection of graphite components against oxidation. Graphite oxidation behavior was, and continues to be, an important direction of theoretical and experimental research, engineering analyses, models and simulations, and design and safety regulations. The avalanche of publications, reports, experimental data, computer codes, and regulatory documents related to oxidation behavior of nuclear graphite is now accelerating to new levels, prompted by the increased interest for nuclear energy as a clean, carbon-free energy source. Even though public’s perception of nuclear energy advantages may still be influenced by the memories of past accidents of nuclear reactors from generations II and III, the community of informed scientists and engineers, regulators and statemen knows that generation IV of nuclear reactors is designed at very high safety standards, doubled by great advances of scientific knowledge and technological progress. One of routes of these recent advances is directed at better understanding of graphite oxidation behavior, its relationship with graphite manufacturing and microstructural properties, along with the effects of various environmental factors and process variables. Together, the recent progress in manufacturing, properties characterization, and modeling of intricated physical and chemical processes that concur to the oxidation behavior led to development of powerful simulation codes able to analyze various scenarios of normal operation and hypothetical off-normal events, and thus to clearly specify the allowable parameters envelopes for the designers, constructors, and operators of current and future modular HTGRs. This review begins with an introduction on manufacturing methods, structure, and properties of nuclear graphite, including basic requirements that this specialty graphite type must satisfy for nuclear use. It continues with a chapter on environmental effects on nuclear graphite, where emphasis is placed less on irradiation and much more on oxidation phenomena, their safety implications, and the basic traits of chronic and acute oxidation by air (oxygen) and water (humidity, steam). Particular attention is placed on the three graphite grades of interest for this document (IG-110, NBG-18, PCEA). A chapter on properties degradation induced by oxidation follows, with focus on density, dimensional, and mechanical properties changes. The next chapter is intended as a brief review of various approaches used for modeling of graphite oxidation behavior. It summarizes the progress of oxidation models, from the early attempts to complex computational approaches interfaced with specialized computer codes designed for nuclear reactor simulations. Last, a list is presented of knowledge gaps where more research is needed. A short summary concludes the review.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Nuclear Forensics

Nuclear forensics is a key part of the nuclear security strategy for the United States and the international community. The NACS Division is central to the leadership role that LLNL has had in nuclear forensics over the past 25 years. Our current nuclear forensic program includes conducting R&D on provenance and attribution signatures, collaborating with international partners, training the next generation of nuclear forensic experts, developing test materials for verification and validation exercises, and providing expert advice to national and international policy makers. Key to our success in these areas has been the strong and continuing involvement in nuclear forensic casework obtained through law enforcement and intelligence channels as well as our outstanding analytical capabilities. NACS must continue to conduct forward-thinking R&D in nuclear forensics that supports operational programs and addresses intelligence gaps. To maintain leadership in nuclear forensics, we must attract, develop, and retain the best talent. The NNSA has a central leadership role in developing educational initiatives for nuclear forensics. In concert with the Glenn T. Seaborg Institute, the NACS Division will continue to participate in all nuclear forensic educational initiatives (undergraduate, graduate, postdoctoral) and incorporate LLNL’s D&I vision into its student and postdoc recruitment efforts. We will continue to build formal relationships with key academic partners and institutions with active and emerging nuclear forensic research interests. We will also strengthen relationships with NNSA DNN and SSAA funded university consortia (e.g. NSSC, ACE, CNEC, CVT, ETI, MTV), helping them conduct research of interest and relevance to nuclear forensics, while at the same time evaluating and recruiting promising talent from these programs.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Simple, Secure, Internet Delivery of MOOSE-based Applications

Application packaging and distribution are the final steps for delivering software to end-users; both are frequently neglected when creating scientific software. Commercial businesses rely on electronic distribution systems that have rendered disk drives obsolete. Still, national laboratories continue to rely heavily on removable media to distribute and limit access to controlled applications. With increasing concerns of unauthorized copying of sensitive applications, a modern distribution system that utilizes cryptographically secure communication and authentication protocols has been developed. This new distribution system will secure the chain of custody for nuclear software while simultaneously simplifying access to these tools. This report summarizes four primary advancements made toward the secure distribution of Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS)-developed, Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE)-based applications: application installation, package distribution, automated package building, and distribution of documentation. NEAMS is currently developing more than ten separate applications based on the open-source MOOSE Framework. Distribution of these applications has primarily been accomplished by distributing source code, with end-users compiling the applications themselves. This work created a mechanism where MOOSE applications can be installed in a similar way to any other software. This allows both administrators and end-users simplified access to runnable executables. With this new installation capability, it was then possible to rethink distribution. A new, secure capability for delivering MOOSE-based applications over the internet has been created. This system requires unique cryptographic tokens for authentication, greatly securing the custody chain for software. Once granted access, installation of any NEAMS code can be accomplished with these terminal commands: "conda install ncrc" "ncrc install ncrc-bison." After these two commands (and authenticating) the BISON application will be securely down- loaded from Idaho National Laboratory (INL)’s servers, installed, and ready to use. To enable this new distribution capability to be successful, the open-source Continuous Integration, Verification, Enhancement, and Testing (CIVET) Continuous Integration (CI) capability was augmented to add Continuous Delivery (CD). CD enables the automated building and packaging of MOOSE-based applications as they are modified by development teams, ensuring that our customers can obtain up-to-date versions of the software at any time. The need for instruction on how to use these applications was addressed through modifications to the MOOSE documentation system. The MooseDocs capability, which enables robust documentation of MOOSE-based applications, has been extended to allow both for the installation of documentation and the packaging of documentation with installed applications. Together, these enhancements form the core of a new, secure distribution mechanism for nuclear simulation tools. In concert with the Nuclear Computational Resource Center (NCRC), NEAMS- developed applications will now be straightforward to obtain securely.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

ACES: Infrastructure As Code. Model Optimization and Performance Capability

Infrastructure as Code (IaC) refers to managing infrastructure (networks, physical/virtual machines, storage, and connection topology) in a descriptive model/language, rather than configuring it manually or using interactive configuration tools. Just like source code can be compiled to generate the same binary code, IaC enables generating the same environment every time it is applied. IaC is a key DevOps practice and is generally used in conjunction with continuous integration (CI) and continuous delivery (CD). In CI, all code changes are merged into a mainline branch and validated multiple times a day as developers check in their changes to the source code. In CD on the other hand, code changes are automatically packaged for a new release-to-production on a regular basis. This typically enables teams to deliver software changes much more quickly and often. Developing and managing the ACES platform using (IaC) is vital for the robust deployment and continued sustainment of this foundational computing capability. IaC and DevOps practices will help us solve many of the common challenges often encountered in developing and maintaining compute infrastructure. First, it will make the provisioning, deployment, and maintenance of the compute infrastructure across multiple environments much more efficient. Second, these processes help make the overall system much more stable by continuously testing new changes as they are introduced to the system. Third, it allows us to be much more confident of the security controls in place since they can be tested as part of the CI process and all new changes can be audited and tracked. Finally, IaC enables the ACES Platform to be adaptable to the emerging technologies due to its ability to spin up different test beds to evaluate and incorporate these technologies. This document addresses common infrastructure-management challenges, describes what happens if they are not addressed, and highlights the value of utilizing IaC to tackle them. Finally, we will provide a high-level overview of the IaC and DevOps practices being utilized by the ACES Platform team.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Report on Year-4 of Water NSTF Matrix Testing: Facility Maintenance and Accident Testing

Under support from the Department of Energy (DOE) and the Office of Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART), a large-scale test facility has been constructed at Argonne National Laboratory to generate NQA-1 qualified validation data for passive decay heat removal systems in advanced reactors. The Natural convection Shutdown heat removal Test Facility (NSTF) reflects key features of a ½ scale, water-based, Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS) and is intended to study the behavior, bound performance, and ultimately guide design decisions for passive decay heat removal systems for advanced reactors. In addition to the experimental activities detailed in this report, a supportive computational modeling effort is on-going which has been demonstrated to significantly strengthen the experimental program while also improving accuracy of the computer models. Together these create a mutually beneficial relationship integral to meeting the overall program objective of examining the heat removal performance of the RCCS concept. This report serves as a summary of maintenance and experimental activities during the program’s fourth year of water-based operation. A planned six-month maintenance period began in August 2021, during which major inspections, repairs, cleaning, and installation of new instrumentation and data acquisition hardware were conducted. Most significantly, two heaters that faulted during Year-3 were repaired, allowing the facility to resume use of the full heated section area and full range of available electric power. The remainder of the year consisted of eight months of test operations, during which the facility logged 211 hours of active heating across one bake-out (following the maintenance period) and seven matrix tests; five classifieds as Accepted per NQA-1, one as Trending, and one as Failed. Testing began by performing two repeat cases to confirm expected facility response and behavior during both single- and two-phase flow conditions, ensuring no changes were introduced during the maintenance period that might have altered the thermal-hydraulic characteristics of the facility. In continuation of the power parametric series initiated in previous years, a high-power test case was then performed examining heat removal performance at a decay heat load equivalent to 2.4 MWt, full-scale, a level exceeding maximum design targets. Additional testing then introduced various blockage scenarios along the network piping, examining the effects of partial and complete blockages of the flow paths on the system behavior and heat removal performance. A study of static boiling tests directed at understanding the geysering two-phase instability was also conducted. The loop was filled only to the bottom of the tank outlet, creating an open loop configuration that prevents any natural circulation flow from occurring, and the heaters were powered on until the facility reached saturation conditions. Following, a series of quasi-steady-state conditions were introduced by adjusting the inventory level in the adiabatic chimney piping at decreasingly lower elevations above the heated region. A strong correlation of geysering characteristics and loop level was observed, with flow and temperature excursions decreasing in intensity, but increasing in frequency, as the fill were reduced to lower elevations along the chimney piping. Once the level fell very low in the chimney, at points near the top of the heated section, the system reached a stable state of continuous boiling without any occurrence of geysering eruptions. A final significant testing accomplishment this year was successful completion of an “accident scenario” test, whose operating conditions were based on a prototypic decay heat curve provided by Framatome and scaled for the NSTF. This test began by establishing steady-state, single-phase “normal operation” conditions, before simulating an accident trip where the availability of active cooling systems was lost. Loop temperatures gradually increased until reaching saturation and subsequent two-phase boiling flow. Over the course of an extended operational period along the defined decay heat curve, steam boil-off caused gradual but continued depletion of liquid inventory until reaching a critically low level causing flow stagnation and cessation of natural circulation heat removal. At this point, after nearly 72 hours of continuous operation, a cold refill was performed to replenish the system inventory and allow the facility to re-establish closed loop natural circulation flow and return to a safe operational state.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Extended Modeling of DOE Sealed Canisters with Updated Chemistry Models

Road-ready and final disposition packaging configurations for the advanced test reactor (ATR) fuel currently specifies storage within helium backfilled DOE sealed standard canisters. The aluminum cladding of the ATR fuel contains an oxyhydroxide layer of boehmite/bayerite that generates hydrogen when subjected to irradiation. Understanding the effect of this hydrogen buildup over time to important for long term storage considerations. Previous modeling efforts have built a coupled CFD-chemical model to simulate the temperature gas phase concentrations within the DOE sealed standard canisters. These models have coupled the temperature conditions to both the gas phase radiolysis chemistry and the surface chemistry associated with the oxyhydroxide layer. The previous iteration of the model utilized constant G-values for the hydrogen generation a 50-year period. This new iteration of the model utilizes new experimental data to update the hydrogen generation rate, as well as increase the simulated time to a 200-year period. Given the half-life assumed for the primary Cs-137 isotope responsible for gamma radiation in the ATR spent fuel, the 200-year period decreases the decay heat and dose rate of the spent fuel by a factor of 100, which combined with the updated chemistry substantially decreases new hydrogen generation. Continued experimental work has identified trends for aluminum surrogate samples with oxyhydroxide layers for tests done at higher dose rates. At low initial doses a fast generation rate of hydrogen occurs which starts to roll over to a lower generation as the total dose applied increase. A small-scale chemical model was built to replicate as mini-canister surrogate system at SRNL as well as for the smaller capsule tests performed at INL. A variety of chemical models to capture this effect were tested, and a back reaction of H radical absorbing onto the surface, or inhibition of the reaction by significant H 2 cover gas were both able to fit both the mini-canister and the small capsule test data. Both kinetic fits were used to generate data from the new 200-year simulation. As additional experiments continue, the kinetic fits may be adjusted to adapt to new data. However, updated data shows that hydrogen atmosphere has little effect on actual generation data, so the model was reverted to use a star-stepped G-value for low-dose and high-dose regions. For the undried fuel case, the three models differ significantly with an end concentration of 1% for back reaction, 4.2% for inhibition, and 13.1% for constant G-value for the nominal scenario. For the dried fuel case, the nominal cases showed end concentrations of 0.23% for back reaction, 1.9% for inhibition, and 4.2% for const G-value for the nominal scenario. For the constant G-value case that is less conservative than the other two, the pressure for undried fuel increases to 1.94 atm over 200 years for the nominal case and 2.11 atm for the high decay heat case. The total hydrogen concentration after 200 years is 4.92% for the low decay heat case and 27.4% for the high decay heat case for undried fuel and is 1.4% and 9.6% for low and high decay heat fuel for the dried fuel case. If small amount of residual air is present, the potential for nitric acid formation of 595, 1568, and 2816 ppm for the lower, nominal, and upper fuel decay heat can occur. At long-term timeframes no significant shift in major species present occurs, so no appreciable amount of oxygen is present in the system. The continued rate of hydrogen generation in the canister occurs at an increase of 0.04% by mole over the final 10 years. Increasing the model range out to 1000 years continues to drop the hydrogen generation rate through decreasing dose rate.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

US Department of Energy, Office of Science High Performance Computing Facility Operational Assessment 2021: Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility

Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s (ORNL’s) Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF) continues to surpass its operational target goals of supporting users; delivering fast, reliable computational ecosystems; creating innovative solutions for high-performance computing (HPC) needs; contributing to the community to build the next generation HPC workforce, and managing risks, safety, and security associated with operating some of the most powerful computers in the world. The results can be seen in the cutting-edge science conducted by users and the praise from the research community. Calendar year (CY) 2021 saw continued excellence in research supported by the OLCF’s leadership-class computing resources, including Summit (the nation’s most powerful supercomputer), the global scratch file system Alpine, the Scalable Protected Infrastructure (SPI), the Exploratory Visualization Environment for Research in Science and Technology (EVEREST), and the archival mass-storage resource High-Performance Storage System (HPSS). While maintaining access and exceptional user support for Summit, the OLCF continued to make progress on the installation and deployment of Frontier, which will be the nation’s first exascale system when it comes online at the start of CY 2023. Users have already begun running and optimizing scientific codes on Crusher, the OLCF test and development system equipped with Frontier’s architecture. Throughout the year, the OLCF maintained a strong culture of operational excellence, including risk management, workplace safety, and cybersecurity. The OLCF’s rigorous risk management strategy anticipated and mitigated risks, and at this time there are no high-priority operational risks. Similarly, ORNL and the OLCF were committed to operating under the US Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) safety regulations that ensure a safe workplace. Technical staff tracked and monitored existing threats and vulnerabilities within the OLCF while continually developing tools and practices to enhance operations without increasing the facility’s risk. CY 2021 was filled with outstanding results and accomplishments, including a very high rating from users on overall satisfaction for the eighth consecutive year; a tremendous number of node hours delivered to 1,671 researchers on Summit; and the successful delivery of the allocation split of roughly 60%, 20%, and 20% of core-hours offered for the Innovative and Novel Computational Impact on Theory and Experiment (INCITE), Advanced Scientific Computing Research Leadership Computing Challenge (ALCC), and Director’s Discretionary (DD) programs, respectively (Section 2). COVID-19 research remained a focus in 2021, and the ALCC and DD programs allocated over 1 million Summit hours to the COVID-19 High Performance Computing Consortium. These accomplishments, coupled with the high utilization rates (i.e., overall and capability usage), represent the fulfillment of the promise of leadership class machines: efficient facilitation of leadership-class computational applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Performance Assessment for the Disposal of Low-Level Waste in the 200 West Area Burial Grounds (Annual Status Report FY 2022)

This annual review provides the projected dose estimates of radionuclide inventories disposed in the active 200 West Area Low-Level Waste Burial Grounds (LLBGs) since September 26, 1988. These estimates are calculated using the original dose methodology developed in the performance assessment (PA) analysis (WHC-EP-0645). The estimates are compared with the performance objectives defined in U.S. Department of Energy requirements (DOE O 435.1 and its companion documents DOE M 435.1-1 and DOE-STD-5002-2017). All performance objectives are currently satisfied, and operational waste acceptance criteria (HNF-EP-0063) and waste acceptance practices continue to be sufficient to maintain compliance with performance objectives. Inventory estimates and associated dose estimates from future waste disposal actions are unchanged from previous years’ evaluations that indicate potential impacts well below performance objectives; therefore, future compliance with DOE O 435.1 is expected. Within the active burial grounds, low-level and mixed low-level waste currently may be disposed only in two lined trenches in the 218-W-5 Burial Ground (Trenches 31 and 34) until they are either filled or a decision is made to close these trenches. Some mixed low-level waste is also disposed at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility in the 200 West Area (which is covered under a separate PA). During this (fiscal year 2022) reporting period (October 1, 2021, through September 30, 2022), waste was disposed to the 200 West Area LLBGs. Continued groundwater monitoring of the 200 West Area LLBGs indicates no groundwater contamination due to LLBG waste. Current assumptions about future land use at the Hanford Site are consistent with PA analysis assumptions of a postclosure facility that will not be degraded by human activity. The LLBGs are in an area identified for waste management and containment of residual contamination (DOE/EIS-0391). The current closure plan for the LLBGs (DOE/RL-2000-70) estimates that the 200 West LLBGs will be closed in the 2050 timeframe. The Disposal Authorization Statement, other technical basis documents, and the radioactive waste management basis are of continued adequacy to meet the performance objectives of DOE O 435.1. Overall, there are no substantive changes to primary PA assumptions and no changes to the PA analysis conclusion; therefore, compliance with DOE O 435.1 and the Disposal Authorization Statement is maintained. A new PA to evaluate the long-term impacts of three disposal trenches that are currently active within the 200 East and 200 West Areas (Trench 94 in the 200 East Area and Trenches 31 and 34 in the 200 West Area) was initiated in fiscal year 2019 and completed in fiscal year 2022. Corrective actions addressing 3 key issues and 31 secondary issues identified during the review process were developed and submitted to the Low-Level Waste Disposal Facility Federal Review Group Co-Chairs for review and approval. This PA provides additional technical basis for the continued adequacy of the existing Operating Disposal Authorization Statement.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

2023 Critical Materials Strategy

The global effort to curb carbon emissions is accelerating demand for clean energy technologies and the materials they rely on. Demand for these materials will only continue to grow, especially as some nations aim to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. While some major materials like steel, copper, and aluminum are already powering the fossil fuel economy, others are more minor materials with potential supply risks. These risks could jeopardize the ability to reduce greenhouse gas emissions within the desirable timeframe to avoid significant climate change. In some cases, it may be necessary to take action to improve the resilience of material supply chains and mitigate supply risks. Understanding the importance of individual materials to clean energy and the supply risks associated with them is necessary to identify which materials may serve as potential roadblocks to a clean energy future. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) issued a series of 13 supply chain deep dive assessment reports on various energy technologies in 2022 in response to President Biden’s Executive Order on America’s Supply Chains (E.O. 14017). These reports emphasized that supply chain bottlenecks can occur at any stage of the value chain from mining and refining to component and even sub-system manufacturing. The bottlenecks are a combination of factors such as material availability, equipment availability, work force availability and quality, logistics, regulatory framework, and market conditions. These bottlenecks were worsened during the global Covid-19 pandemic. Its lingering impacts have hindered capacity expansion for material supply chains and prevented product lead-time recovery. One approach to reduce supply chain risks for the United States is to have a strong domestic manufacturing sector with a diverse set of producers. Boosting responsible domestic production would require leveraging the latest science not only in material extraction but also in developing substitutes, recycling, reuse, and remanufacturing. This report is an updated analysis of previous Critical Materials Strategy (CMS) reports published by the DOE in 2010, 2011, and 2019 based on national and global priorities, technology advancement, and technology adoption trends. Like the CMS reports, this analysis presents the results of a formal material criticality assessment to identify which materials are critical to the continued deployment of clean energy technologies globally. The analysis in this report leveraged the DOE supply chain deep dive assessments to develop the initial list of materials to evaluate. This DOE Critical Materials Assessment (CMA) is conducted independently of criticality assessments performed by other U.S. government agencies, such as that conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). This analysis complements the USGS critical minerals determination in three aspects. First, the DOE assessment is performed from a global perspective, while the USGS analysis focusses on the importance of minerals to the U.S. economy. Second, this report focuses on the importance of materials to clean energy technologies, rather than to the economy in general. Lastly, this study is forward looking to 2035 based on clean energy deployment scenarios, whereas the USGS assessment is retrospective. Materials evaluated in this report that do not appear in the USGS Critical Minerals List include copper, uranium, electrical steel, and SiC. A draft version of this report received ~80 public comments related to supporting data and methodological improvement. Those comments have been incorporated as much as possible where appropriate. Highlights of findings from this 2023 CMA include: Rare earth materials (neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium) used in magnets in electric vehicle (EV) motors and wind turbine generators continue to be critical. While dysprosium (Dy) and terbium (Tb) are both heavy rare earth elements that serve the same function in magnets, the criticality of Tb is slightly lower than that for Dy in the short term due to the widespread use of Dy in high-grade magnets and Tb’s present role as a substitute. Similarly, praseodymium (Pr) is critical in the medium term but only near critical in the short term because it is more substitutable in magnets than neodymium (Nd); Materials used in batteries for EVs and stationary storage are now considered to be critical. While cobalt (Co) was found to be critical in this and previous reports, lithium (Li) becomes critical in the medium term due to its broader use in various battery chemistries and the rampant growth of the EV industry. Natural graphite is a new addition in this assessment and is also found to be critical; Platinum group metals used in hydrogen electrolyzers, such as platinum (Pr) and iridium (Ir), are critical due to an increased focus on hydrogen technologies to achieve net zero carbon emissions, while those used in catalytic converters, such as rhodium (Rh) and palladium (Pd), were screened out due to the decreased importance of catalytic converters in the medium term; Gallium (Ga) continues to be critical due to its use in light-emitting diodes (LEDs). In addition, the use of Ga has increased in magnet manufacturing and in semiconductor in forms such as gallium arsenide (GaAs) or gallium nitride (GaN); Major materials like Aluminum (Al), copper (Cu), nickel (Ni), and silicon (Si) move from noncritical in the short term to near critical in the medium term due to their importance in electrification; Electrical steel is near critical due to its use in transformers for the grid and electric motors in EVs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗