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At least 937 records · Page 52

Investigating the Response of Loop Plasma to Nanoflare Heating Using RADYN Simulations

We present the results of 1D hydrodynamic simulations of coronal loops that are subject to nanoflares, caused by either in situ thermal heating or nonthermal electron (NTE) beams. The synthesized intensity and Doppler shifts can be directly compared with Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) and Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) observations of rapid variability in the transition region (TR) of coronal loops, associated with transient coronal heating. We find that NTEs with high enough low-energy cutoff (EC) deposit energy in the lower TR and chromosphere, causing blueshifts (up to approximately 20 kilometers per second) in the IRIS Si IV lines, which thermal conduction cannot reproduce. The EC threshold value for the blueshifts depends on the total energy of the events (approximately 5 kiloelectronvolts for 1024 ergs, up to 15 kiloelectronvolts for 1025 ergs). The observed footpoint emission intensity and flows, combined with the simulations, can provide constraints on both the energy of the heating event and EC. The response of the loop plasma to nanoflares depends crucially on the electron density: significant Si IV intensity enhancements and flows are observed only for initially low-density loops (less than 10 (sup 9) per cubic centimeter). This provides a possible explanation of the relative scarcity of observations of significant moss variability. While the TR response to single heating episodes can be clearly observed, the predicted coronal emission (AIA 94 Angstroms) for single strands is below current detectability and can only be observed when several strands are heated closely in time. Finally, we show that the analysis of the IRIS Mg II chromospheric lines can help further constrain the properties of the heating mechanisms.

Sun: Corona↗

Developing VSC-HVDC Oscillation Damping Control Constraints in Unit Commitment

High-voltage direct current (HVDC) systems within the existing power grids will play a pivotal role in enabling high share of renewable power integration and transportation electrification. There is a need for transmission planning models to accurately capture the impact of VSC-HVDC oscillation damping control on the system planning and model the constraints in the security constrained unit commitment (SCUC) problem. In this paper, the SCUC problem in a hybrid DC-AC grid considering damping on electromechanical inter-area oscillation is studied. An electromechanical oscillation-driven transmission capability constraints are derived from system swing equation and incorporated into the SCUC. Multiple system damping control scenarios are set based on the extracted plausible bounds of damping coefficient and inertia constant to linearize the nonlinear expressions. The SCUC problem with proposed constraints is tested on the Reliability Test System Grid Modernization Lab Consortium (RTS-GMLC) via PLEXOS. The impact of the proposed constraints on regional generation, inertia, power flow, annual system cost, and renewable energy curtailment are fully assessed.

damping control↗

[Sources of Methane in the Boreal Region]

In determining the global methane budget the sources of methane must be balanced with the sinks and atmospheric inventory. The approximate contribution of the different methane sources to the budget has been establish showing the major terrestrial inputs as rice, wetlands, bogs, fens, and tundra. Measurements and modeling of production in these sources suggest that temperature, water table height and saturation along with substratum composition are important in controlling methane production and emission. The isotopic budget of 13 C and D/H in methane can be used as a tool to clarify the global budget. This approach has achieved success at constraining the inputs. Studies using the isotopic approach place constraints on global methane production from different sources. Also, the relation between the two biogenic production pathways, acetate fermentation and CO2 reduction, and the effect of substratum composition can be made using isotope measurements shows the relation between the different biogenic, thermogenic and anthropogenic sources of methane as a function of the carbon and hydrogen isotope values for each source and the atmosphere, tropospheric composition. Methane emissions from ponds and fens are a significant source in the methane budget of the boreal region. An initial study in 1993 and 1994 on the isotopic composition of this methane source and the isotopic composition in relation to oxidation of methane at the sediment surface of the ponds or fen was conducted as part of our BOREAS project. The isotopic composition of methane emitted by saturated anoxic sediment is dependent on the sediment composition and geochemistry, but will be influenced by in situ oxidation, in part, a function of rooted plant activity. The influence of oxidation mediated by rooted plant activities on the isotopic composition of methane is not well known and will depend on the plant type, sediment temperature, and numerous other variables. Information on this isotopic composition is important in both understanding the bio-geochemistry of the system and also in determining the regional and global inputs for the methane isotope budget. In determining the destruction of methane for balancing the atmospheric methane budget soil oxidation must be considered.

Source record↗

Potential Vorticity Dynamics Explain How Extratropical Oceans and the Arctic Modulate Wintertime Land–Temperature Variations

Temperature variations across the continental northern hemisphere at the interdecadal scale are thought to be remotely modulated by oceanic internal climate variability and the Arctic. Nevertheless, further elucidating the dynamics is essential for clarifying ongoing debates. We show that potential vorticity (PV) dynamics provide a concise explanation for these teleconnections. Our findings demonstrate that extratropical oceans and the Arctic can remotely modulate the wintertime continental temperature variations by stimulating PV anomalies, which are constrained by climatological PV gradients and jet streams. A causal explanation includes anomalous temperature and precipitation over oceans and the Arctic inducing local PV anomalies via diabatic heating. Subsequently, meridional and downstream advection distributes the anomalous PV to remote land regions where the climatological PV gradients are strong, that is, involving PV fronts, as well as jet streams; therefore, PV fronts and jet streams jointly indicate land regions that are largely and frequently impacted. However, land can also modulate other regions through the same mechanism when variations over land occur in advance. Clear causality depends on which factor is independent, while interactions among those regions may convolute the causality, thereby causing further debates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cystine-knot peptide inhibitors of HTRA1 bind to a cryptic pocket within the active site region

Cystine-knot peptides (CKPs) are naturally occurring peptides that exhibit exceptional chemical and proteolytic stability. We leveraged the CKP carboxypeptidase A1 inhibitor as a scaffold to construct phage-displayed CKP libraries and subsequently screened these collections against HTRA1, a trimeric serine protease implicated in age-related macular degeneration and osteoarthritis. The initial hits were optimized by using affinity maturation strategies to yield highly selective and potent picomolar inhibitors of HTRA1. Crystal structures, coupled with biochemical studies, reveal that the CKPs do not interact in a substrate-like manner but bind to a cryptic pocket at the S1’ site region of HTRA1 and abolish catalysis by stabilizing a non-competent active site conformation. The opening and closing of this cryptic pocket is controlled by the gatekeeper residue V221, and its movement is facilitated by the absence of a constraining disulfide bond that is typically present in trypsin fold serine proteases, thereby explaining the remarkable selectivity of the CKPs. Our findings reveal an intriguing mechanism for modulating the activity of HTRA1, and highlight the utility of CKP-based phage display platforms in uncovering potent and selective inhibitors against challenging therapeutic targets.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Enriched East Asian oxygen isotope of precipitation indicates reduced summer seasonality in regional climate and westerlies

Speleothem oxygen isotope records over East Asia reveal apparently large and rapid paleoclimate changes over the last several hundred thousand years. However, what the isotopic variation actually represent in terms of the regional climate and circulation is debated. We present an answer that emerges from an analysis of the interannual variation in amount-weighted annual δ 18 O of precipitation over East Asia as simulated by an isotope-enabled model constrained by large-scale atmospheric reanalysis fields. 18 O-enriched years have reduced summer seasonality both in terms of precipitation isotopes and in the large-scale circulation. Changes occur between June and October, where the δ 18 O of precipitation (δ 18 O p ) transitions from the isotopically heavier winter to the lighter summer regime. For 18 O-enriched years, this transition is less pronounced. Variations in precipitation amount alone are insufficient to explain the amount-weighted annual δ 18 O p between 18 O-enriched and 18 O-depleted years. Reduced summer seasonality is also expressed in the low-level monsoonal southerlies and upper-level westerlies; for the latter, the northward migration across the Tibetan Plateau in the summer is less pronounced. Our result thus implicates the westerlies across the plateau as the proximate cause of East Asian paleomonsoon changes, manifested as a modulation of its summer peak.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

JWST lensed quasar dark matter survey – II. Strongest gravitational lensing limit on the dark matter free streaming length to date

This is the second in a series of papers in which we use JWST Mid Infrared Instrument multiband imaging to measure the warm dust emission in a sample of 31 multiply imaged quasars, to be used as a probe of the particle nature of dark matter. We present measurements of the relative magnifications of the strongly lensed warm dust emission in a sample of nine systems. The warm dust region is compact and sensitive to perturbations by populations of haloes down to masses $\sim 10^6$ M$_{\odot }$. Using these warm dust flux-ratio measurements in combination with five previous narrow-line flux-ratio measurements, we constrain the halo mass function. In our model, we allow for complex deflector macromodels with flexible third- and fourth-order multipole deviations from ellipticity, and we introduce an improved model of the tidal evolution of subhaloes. We constrain a WDM model and find an upper limit on the half-mode mass of $10^{7.6}\, {\rm M}_\odot$ at posterior odds of 10:1. This corresponds to a lower limit on a thermally produced dark matter particle mass of 6.1 keV. This is the strongest gravitational lensing constraint to date, and comparable to those from independent probes such as the Ly $\alpha$ forest and Milky Way satellite galaxies.

dark matter↗

First ultraviolet observations of the transition regions of X-ray bright solar-type stars in the Pleiades

Results are reported from A UV study of the transition regions of two X-ray-bright solar-type stars from the Pleiades, in an attempt to extend the main sequence age baseline for the transition-region activity-age relation over more than two orders of magnitude. However, no emission lines were detected from either star; the upper limits to the fluxes are consistent with previously determined saturation levels, but do not help to further constrain evolutionary models.

Caillault, J.-P.↗

Pattern Search Methods for Linearly Constrained Minimization

We extend pattern search methods to linearly constrained minimization. We develop a general class of feasible point pattern search algorithms and prove global convergence to a Karush-Kuhn-Tucker point. As in the case of unconstrained minimization, pattern search methods for linearly constrained problems accomplish this without explicit recourse to the gradient or the directional derivative. Key to the analysis of the algorithms is the way in which the local search patterns conform to the geometry of the boundary of the feasible region.

Lewis, Robert Michael↗

Sedimentary Facies Analysis Using AVIRIS Data: A Geophysical Inverse Problem

AVIRIS data can be used to quantitatively analyze and map sedimentary lithofacies. The observed radiance spectra can be reduced to 'apparent reflectance' spectra by topographic and reflectance characterization of several field sites within the image. These apparent reflectance spectra correspond to the true reflectance at each pixel, multiplied by an unknown illumination factor (ranging in value from zero to one). The spatial abundance patterns of spectrally defined lithofacies and the unknown illumination factors can be simultaneously derived using constrained linear spectral unmixing methods. Estimates of the minimum uncertainty in the final results (due to noise, instrument resolutions, degree of illumination and mixing systematics) can be made by forward and inverse modeling. Specific facies studies in the Rattlesnake Hills region of Wyoming illustrate the successful application of these methods.

Boardmann, Joe W.↗

Observational Constraint on Cloud Feedbacks Suggests Moderate Climate Sensitivity

Global climate models (GCMs) predict warming in response to increasing greenhouse gases, partly due to decreased tropical low-level cloud cover and reflectance. We use satellite observations that discriminate stratocumulus (Sc) from shallow cumulus (Cu) clouds to separately evaluate their sensitivity to warming and constrain the tropical contribution to low-cloud feedback. We find an observationally inferred low-level feedback two times smaller than a previous estimate. Cu are insensitive to warming whereas GCMs exhibit a large positive cloud feedback in Cu regions. In contrast, Sc show sensitivity to warming and the tropical inversion layer strength, controlled by the tropical Pacific SST gradient. Models fail to reproduce the historical SST gradient trends and therefore changes in inversion strength, generating an overestimate of the positive Sc cloud feedback. Continued weak east-Pacific warming would therefore produce a weaker low-cloud feedback and imply a more moderate climate sensitivity (3.47  0.33 K) than many models predict.

Cloud feedback↗

Generating a 4D Global CH(4) Product by Assimilating TROPOMI column CH(4) in NASA’s GEOS GCM

Examination of temporal and spatial CH4 variability is crucial for better understanding the human and natural processes driving climate change and ultimately designing mitigation strategies. Here we present an analysis framework that uses NASA’s GEOS General Circulation Model (GCM) to construct a high-resolution, time varying picture of atmospheric CH4 consistent with measurements from a variety of platforms, both in situ and remotely sensed. The resulting time varying atmospheric CH4 product can (i) support interpretation of high-resolution point source detection approaches, (ii) provide reanalysis fields for CH4 and other greenhouse gases, and (iii) supply boundary conditions for regional models. Our approach starts with a set of CH4 emissions from various inventories that have been adjusted to match the global annual growth rate over recent decades. These emissions are transported by the GEOS GCM, which in turn is constrained by meteorology from NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) product. The simulated atmospheric field is compared with CH4 measurements, such as those from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI), and adjustments calculated following a Bayesian protocol. The accuracy of the resultant optimal atmospheric CH4 field can be demonstrated by its improved agreement (compared to a direct simulation of the CH4 inventories) with a host of independent CH4 measurements, such as those from the Total Carbon Column Observation Network (TCCON) and in situ observations from surface and airborne platforms.

Nikolay V. Balashov↗

Quantifying uncertainty in physics-based predictions of rare-isotope production cross sections via Bayesian-inspired model averaging across nuclear mass tables

Accurate prediction of fragmentation cross sections is essential for rare-isotope beam production, planning new-isotope searches, and designing experiments to study the most exotic regions of the nuclear chart. However, existing reaction models and phenomenological cross-section parametrizations often exhibit significant deviations over broad regions of mass and charge. In this work, a Bayesian-inspired model-averaging framework is developed to combine abrasion-ablation (AA) calculations based on multiple nuclear mass tables into a single statistically weighted estimate. For the calibrated systems, the model weights are assigned empirically according to the relative quality of fit to measured cross sections, thereby reducing systematic model bias while preserving the underlying physics content of the AA description. The weights are constrained using proton-rich fragmentation data for the 78 Kr and 124 Xe projectiles. The resulting parameter trends are then propagated to the 92 Mo and 144 Sm systems through a controlled scaling procedure. In the present implementation, the excitation-energy prescription is fixed, while the averaging is performed across nuclear-mass inputs; the framework provides both weighted cross sections and associated uncertainty estimates. Applied to proton-rich fragmentation, the present approach provides a practical basis for interpolation and limited extrapolation in regions relevant to rare-isotope production. The resulting predictions are used to assess the production of very proton-rich nuclei, and candidate new isotopes are discussed.

Bayesian methods↗

A carbonate-silicate aqueous geochemical cycle model for Mars

A model for the carbonate-silicate geochemical cycle of an early, wet Mars is under development. The results of this study will be used to constrain models of the geochemical history of Mars and the likely mineralogy of its present surface. Although Mars today is a cold, dry planet, it may once have been much warmer and wetter. Values of total outgassed CO2 from several to about 10 bars are consistent with present knowledge (Pollack et al. 1987), and this amount of CO2 implies an amount of water outgassed at least equal to an equivalent depth of 500-1000 meters (Carr 1986). Pollack et al. (1987), in addition, estimate that a thick CO2 atmosphere may have existed for an extended period of time, perhaps as long as a billion years. The greenhouse effect of such an atmosphere would permit the presence of liquid water on the surface, most likely in the form of a shallow sea in the lowest regions of the planet, such as the northern plains (Schaefer 1990). The treatment of geochemical cycles as complex kinetic chemical reactions has been undertaken for terrestrial systems in recent years with much success (Lasaga 1980, 1981; Berner et al. 1983; Lasaga et al. 1985). Although the Martian system is vastly less well understood, and hence less well-constrained, it is also a much simpler system, due to the lack of biogenic reactions that make the terrestrial system so complex. It should be possible, therefore, to use the same techniques to model the Martian system as have been used for terrestrial systems, and to produce useful results. A diagram of the carbonate-silicate cycle for Mars (simplified from the terrestrial system) is given.

Schaefer, M. W.↗

Characterizing Martian Volcanic Provinces’ Magmatic Evolution and Chemistry through Equations of State Modeling Initial Study

Here we discuss a novel interdisciplinary approach to investigating igneous compositions of large volcanic provinces on Mars using remote sensing data sets (Mars Odyssey Gamma Ray and neutron Spectrometer suite--GRS, and gravity) to inform petrologic and thermoelastic modeling. Martian volcanic provinces, starting from Noachian to Amazonian age, including Elysium (EVP), are locations of great geologic interest which have been active over long time scales from Hesperian to Amazonian. Regional scale change in eruptive processes are poorly understood. Compared to large igneous provinces on Earth, the martian volcanic activity has persisted for orders of magnitude longer. Therefore, changes in mantle chemistry, pressure, and temperature during lithospheric cooling are expected to produce significant changes in the conditions of magma production, storage and ascent, affecting the degree of fractional crystallization and crustal contamination. In this study, we perform a detailed modeling to test the hypothesis that compositional variability within volcanic provinces resulted from spatiotemporal changes in the depth of magma formation and present initial results. Our methods include constraining the pressure and temperature conditions of EVP as a case study of geologically recent magmatic evolution on Mars using GRS informed surface chemistry constraints and pMELTS modeling. Second, we place constraints on the density and seismic velocities of the EVP melt through thermoelastic modeling with a local gravity analysis. This analysis is also extended to Noachian aged volcanic provinces on Mars initial results estimates mantle pressure for each sub-region is 16 kbar pressure, whereas, degree of partial melting is low and varies between 10 to 12. This study aims to validate our theoretical model and develop a perspective view of spatiotemporal changes at the interior of Mars throughout the time.

Martian science, Mars, geology, geophysics↗

Characterizing the initial state and dynamical evolution in XeXe and PbPb collisions using multiparticle cumulants

For the first time, correlations among mixed-order moments of two or three flow harmonics —( v n k , v m l ) and ( v n k , v m l , v p q ), with k, l, and q denoting the respective orders—are measured in xenon–xenon (XeXe) collisions and compared with lead–lead (PbPb) results, providing a novel probe of collective behavior in heavy ion collisions. These measurements compare a nearly spherical, doubly-magic 208 Pb nucleus to a triaxially deformed 129 Xe nucleus, emphasizing the sensitivity to initial-state geometry fluctuations arising from nuclear deformation. The dependence of these results (v n , n = 2 , 3 , 4 ) on the shape and size of the nuclear overlap region is studied. Comparisons between v 2 , v 3 , and v 4 demonstrate the importance of v 3 and v 4 in exploring the nonlinear hydrodynamic response of the quark-gluon plasma (QGP) to the initial spatial anisotropy. The results constrain initial-state model parameters that influence the evolution of the QGP. The CMS detector was used to collect XeXe and PbPb data at nucleon-nucleon center-of-mass energies of S N N = 5.44 and 5.36 TeV, respectively. Correlations are extracted using multiparticle mixed-harmonic cumulants (up to eight-particle cumulants) with charged particles in the pseudorapidity range |η| < 2.4 and transverse momentum range 0.5 < p T < 3 GeV/c.

CMS↗

Machine learning-based observation-constrained projections reveal elevated global socioeconomic risks from wildfire

Reliable projections of wildfire and associated socioeconomic risks are crucial for the development of efficient and effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. The lack of or limited observational constraints for modeling outputs impairs the credibility of wildfire projections. Here, we present a machine learning framework to constrain the future fire carbon emissions simulated by 13 Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), using historical, observed joint states of fire-relevant variables. During the twenty-first century, the observation-constrained ensemble indicates a weaker increase in global fire carbon emissions but higher increase in global wildfire exposure in population, gross domestic production, and agricultural area, compared with the default ensemble. Such elevated socioeconomic risks are primarily caused by the compound regional enhancement of future wildfire activity and socioeconomic development in the western and central African countries, necessitating an emergent strategic preparedness to wildfires in these countries.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vehicle Tracking with Crop-based Detection

End-to-end production of vehicle tracking data from video in real-time and with high accuracy remains a challenging problem due to the computational cost of object detection on each frame. In this work we present Tracking with Crop-based Detection, a method for speeding object tracking in constrained contexts (with stable cameras and relatively-predictable object motion) such as vehicle traffic monitoring. We leverage this context to provide a strong prior for object locations, which we use to 1.) boost detection speed by detecting objects only in regions corresponding to object priors on most frames and 2.) inform the selection of the detector output for each object. We evaluate Crop-based Detection as an extension to the KIOU object tracker (Crop-KIOU) on the UA-DETRAC dataset. The proposed tracker outperforms all other reported algorithms in terms of PR-MOTA, PR-MOTP, and mostly tracked objects on the UA-DETRAC benchmark, establishing a new state-of-the-art. Relative to tracking by detection with KIOU, Crop-KIOU achieves a 26% higher frame-rate and increases accuracy. Furthermore, Tracking with Crop-based Detection can be combined with frame skipping; we show a 149% increase in framerate relative to KIOU with no decrease in accuracy using this combination of methods.

Gloudemans, Derek↗