Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “conditional probability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 937 records · Page 52

The latitudinal distribution of magnetic holes in the solar wind

A large number of magnetic holes have been found in the Ulysses data during its cruise in the ecliptic. They are interpreted as convecting structures, probably caused by the mirror instability which exists in high beta plasmas with anisotropic temperatures. The characteristics of the holes reflect the solar wind condition of the region in which the holes are formed, and the point of observation may be far removed from where the instability occurs. A preliminary survey appears to indicate that the number of holes has no significant radial dependence. However, the number of holes does appear to increase with increasing heliographic latitude. Yet the large scale solar wind structures with their compression regions disappeared at approximately 57 deg south latitude. Thus any causal relationship between the holes and large scale solar wind structures is questionable. The temperature anisotropy and high beta required by the mirror instability must be generated by other mechanisms. In order to tie the magnetic holes and the mirror instability to their cause, the evolution of their characteristics with heliocentric distance and latitude needs to be investigated. With the progression of Ulysses around the sun a survey will be conducted to ascertain the characteristics of the magnetic holes as a function of heliographic latitude and heliocentric distance. A comparison of the results with the solar wind conditions may lead to the identification of the magnetic hole generating mechanism(s).

Winterhalter, D.↗

The Neutral Gas Desorption and Breakdown on a Metal-Dielectric Junction Immersed in a Plasma

New results are presented of an experimental study and theoretical analysis of arcing on metal-dielectric junctions immersed in a low-density plasma. Two samples of conventional solar arrays have been used to investigate the effects of arcing within a wide range of neutral gas pressures, ion currents, and electron number densities. All data (except video) were obtained in digital form that allowed us to study the correlation between external parameters (plasma density, additional capacitance, bias voltage, etc) and arc characteristics (arc rate, arc current pulse width and amplitude, gas species partial pressures, intensities of spectral lines, and so on). Arc sites were determined by employing a video-camera, and it is shown that the most probable sites for arc inception are trip le-junctions, even though some arcs were initiated in gaps between cells. The effect of surface conditioning (decrease of arc rate due to outgassing) was clearly demonstrated. Moreover, a considerable increase in arc rate due to absorption of molecules from atmospheric air has been confirmed. The analysis of optical spectra (240-800 nm) reveals intense narrow atomic lines (Ag, H) and wide molecular bands (OH, CH, SiH, SiN) that confirm a complicated mechanism of arc plasma generation. The rate of plasma contamination due to arcing was measured by employing a mass-spectrometer. These measurements provided quite reliable data for the development of a theoretical model of plasma contamination, In conclusion, the arc threshold was increased to above 350 V (from 190 V) by keeping a sample in vacuum (20 micronTorr) for seven days. The results obtained are important for the understanding of the arc inception mechanism, which is absolutely essential for progress toward the design of high voltage solar arrays for space applications.

Vayner, Boris↗

Evaluation of Methods to Estimate the Surface Downwelling Longwave Flux during Arctic Winter

Surface longwave radiation fluxes dominate the energy budget of nighttime polar regions, yet little is known about the relative accuracy of existing satellite-based techniques to estimate this parameter. We compare eight methods to estimate the downwelling longwave radiation flux and to validate their performance with measurements from two field programs in thc Arctic: the Coordinated Eastern Arctic Experiment (CEAREX ) conducted in the Barents Sea during the autumn and winter of 1988, and the Lead Experiment performed in the Beaufort Sea in the spring of 1992. Five of the eight methods were developed for satellite-derived quantities, and three are simple parameterizations based on surface observations. All of the algorithms require information about cloud fraction, which is provided from the NASA-NOAA Television and Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS) Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) polar pathfinder dataset (Path-P): some techniques ingest temperature and moisture profiles (also from Path-P): one-half of the methods assume that clouds are opaque and have a constant geometric thickness of 50 hPa, and three include no thickness information whatsoever. With a somewhat limited validation dataset, the following primary conclusions result: (1) all methods exhibit approximately the same correlations with measurements and rms differences, but the biases range from -34 W sq m (16% of the mean) to nearly 0; (2) the error analysis described here indicates that the assumption of a 50-hPa cloud thickness is too thin by a factor of 2 on average in polar nighttime conditions; (3) cloud-overlap techniques. which effectively increase mean cloud thickness, significantly improve the results; (4) simple Arctic-specific parameterizations performed poorly, probably because they were developed with surface-observed cloud fractions; and (5) the single algorithm that includes an estimate of cloud thickness exhibits the smallest differences from observations.

Chiacchio, Marc↗

Gaussian and Lognormal Models of Hurricane Gust Factors

A document describes a tool that predicts the likelihood of land-falling tropical storms and hurricanes exceeding specified peak speeds, given the mean wind speed at various heights of up to 500 feet (150 meters) above ground level. Empirical models to calculate mean and standard deviation of the gust factor as a function of height and mean wind speed were developed in Excel based on data from previous hurricanes. Separate models were developed for Gaussian and offset lognormal distributions for the gust factor. Rather than forecasting a single, specific peak wind speed, this tool provides a probability of exceeding a specified value. This probability is provided as a function of height, allowing it to be applied at a height appropriate for tall structures. The user inputs the mean wind speed, height, and operational threshold. The tool produces the probability from each model that the given threshold will be exceeded. This application does have its limits. They were tested only in tropical storm conditions associated with the periphery of hurricanes. Winds of similar speed produced by non-tropical system may have different turbulence dynamics and stability, which may change those winds statistical characteristics. These models were developed along the Central Florida seacoast, and their results may not accurately extrapolate to inland areas, or even to coastal sites that are different from those used to build the models. Although this tool cannot be generalized for use in different environments, its methodology could be applied to those locations to develop a similar tool tuned to local conditions.

Merceret, Frank↗

Conservational PDF Equations of Turbulence

Recently we have revisited the traditional probability density function (PDF) equations for the velocity and species in turbulent incompressible flows. They are all unclosed due to the appearance of various conditional means which are modeled empirically. However, we have observed that it is possible to establish a closed velocity PDF equation and a closed joint velocity and species PDF equation through conditions derived from the integral form of the Navier-Stokes equations. Although, in theory, the resulted PDF equations are neither general nor unique, they nevertheless lead to the exact transport equations for the first moment as well as all higher order moments. We refer these PDF equations as the conservational PDF equations. This observation is worth further exploration for its validity and CFD application

Shih, Tsan-Hsing↗

Vortex Shedding Inside a Baffled Air Duct

Common in the operation of both segmented and un-segmented large solid rocket motors is the occurrence of vortex shedding within the motor chamber. A portion of the energy within a shed vortex is converted to acoustic energy, potentially driving the longitudinal acoustic modes of the motor in a quasi-discrete fashion. This vortex shedding-acoustic mode excitation event occurs for every Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM) operation, giving rise to subsequent axial thrust oscillations. In order to better understand this vortex shedding/acoustic mode excitation phenomena, unsteady CFD simulations were run for both a test geometry and the full scale RSRM geometry. This paper covers the results from the subscale geometry runs, which were based on work focusing on the RSRM hydrodynamics. Unsteady CFD simulation parameters, including boundary conditions and post-processing returns, are reviewed. The results were further post-processed to identify active acoustic modes and vortex shedding characteristics. Probable locations for acoustic energy generation, and subsequent acoustic mode excitation, are discussed.

Davis, Philip↗

Chance-Constrained Guidance With Non-Convex Constraints

Missions to small bodies, such as comets or asteroids, require autonomous guidance for descent to these small bodies. Such guidance is made challenging by uncertainty in the position and velocity of the spacecraft, as well as the uncertainty in the gravitational field around the small body. In addition, the requirement to avoid collision with the asteroid represents a non-convex constraint that means finding the optimal guidance trajectory, in general, is intractable. In this innovation, a new approach is proposed for chance-constrained optimal guidance with non-convex constraints. Chance-constrained guidance takes into account uncertainty so that the probability of collision is below a specified threshold. In this approach, a new bounding method has been developed to obtain a set of decomposed chance constraints that is a sufficient condition of the original chance constraint. The decomposition of the chance constraint enables its efficient evaluation, as well as the application of the branch and bound method. Branch and bound enables non-convex problems to be solved efficiently to global optimality. Considering the problem of finite-horizon robust optimal control of dynamic systems under Gaussian-distributed stochastic uncertainty, with state and control constraints, a discrete-time, continuous-state linear dynamics model is assumed. Gaussian-distributed stochastic uncertainty is a more natural model for exogenous disturbances such as wind gusts and turbulence than the previously studied set-bounded models. However, with stochastic uncertainty, it is often impossible to guarantee that state constraints are satisfied, because there is typically a non-zero probability of having a disturbance that is large enough to push the state out of the feasible region. An effective framework to address robustness with stochastic uncertainty is optimization with chance constraints. These require that the probability of violating the state constraints (i.e., the probability of failure) is below a user-specified bound known as the risk bound. An example problem is to drive a car to a destination as fast as possible while limiting the probability of an accident to 10(exp -7). This framework allows users to trade conservatism against performance by choosing the risk bound. The more risk the user accepts, the better performance they can expect.

FROM↗

Effect of Individual Component Life Distribution on Engine Life Prediction

The effect of individual engine component life distributions on engine life prediction was determined. A Weibull-based life and reliability analysis of the NASA Energy Efficient Engine was conducted. The engine s life at a 95 and 99.9 percent probability of survival was determined based upon the engine manufacturer s original life calculations and assumed values of each of the component s cumulative life distributions as represented by a Weibull slope. The lives of the high-pressure turbine (HPT) disks and blades were also evaluated individually and as a system in a similar manner. Knowing the statistical cumulative distribution of each engine component with reasonable engineering certainty is a condition precedent to predicting the life and reliability of an entire engine. The life of a system at a given reliability will be less than the lowest-lived component in the system at the same reliability (probability of survival). Where Weibull slopes of all the engine components are equal, the Weibull slope had a minimal effect on engine L(sub 0.1) life prediction. However, at a probability of survival of 95 percent (L(sub 5) life), life decreased with increasing Weibull slope.

Zaretsky, Erwin V.↗

Variational deep learning of equilibrium transition path ensembles

Here, we present a time-dependent variational method to learn the mechanisms of equilibrium reactive processes and efficiently evaluate their rates within a transition path ensemble. This approach builds off of the variational path sampling methodology by approximating the time-dependent commitment probability within a neural network ansatz. The reaction mechanisms inferred through this approach are elucidated by a novel decomposition of the rate in terms of the components of a stochastic path action conditioned on a transition. This decomposition affords an ability to resolve the typical contribution of each reactive mode and their couplings to the rare event. The associated rate evaluation is variational and systematically improvable through the development of a cumulant expansion. We demonstrate this method in both over- and under-damped stochastic equations of motion, in low-dimensional model systems, and in the isomerization of a solvated alanine dipeptide. In all examples, we find that we can obtain quantitatively accurate estimates of the rates of the reactive events with minimal trajectory statistics and gain unique insights into transitions through the analysis of their commitment probability.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Adversarial sampling of unknown and high-dimensional conditional distributions

Many engineering problems require the prediction of realization-to-realization variability or a refined description of modeled quantities. In that case, it is necessary to sample elements from unknown high-dimensional spaces with possibly millions of degrees of freedom. While there exist methods able to sample elements from probability density functions (PDF) with known shapes, several approximations need to be made when the distribution is unknown. In this paper the sampling method, as well as the inference of the underlying distribution, are both handled with a data-driven method known as generative adversarial networks (GAN), which trains two competing neural networks to produce a network that can effectively generate samples from the training set distribution. In practice, it is often necessary to draw samples from conditional distributions. When the conditional variables are continuous, only one (if any) data point corresponding to a particular value of a conditioning variable may be available, which is not sufficient to estimate the conditional distribution. This work handles this problem using an a priori estimation of the conditional moments of a PDF. Herein, two approaches, stochastic estimation, and an external neural network are compared for computing these moments; however, any preferred method can be used. The algorithm is demonstrated in the case of the deconvolution of a filtered turbulent flow field. It is shown that all the versions of the proposed algorithm effectively sample the target conditional distribution with minimal impact on the quality of the samples compared to state-of-the-art methods. Additionally, the procedure can be used as a metric for the diversity of samples generated by a conditional GAN (cGAN) conditioned with continuous variables.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

SAXS-guided unbiased coarse-grained Monte Carlo simulation for identification of self-assembly nanostructures and dimensions

Recent studies have shown that solvated amphiphiles can form nanostructured self-assemblies called dynamic binary complexes (DBCs) in the presence of ions. Since the nanostructures of DBCs are directly related to their viscoelastic properties, it is important to understand how the nanostructures change under different solution conditions. However, it is challenging to obtain a three-dimensional molecular description of these nanostructures by utilizing conventional experimental characterization techniques or thermodynamic models. To this end, we combined the structural data from small angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) experiments and thermodynamic knowledge from coarse-grained Monte Carlo (CGMC) simulations to identify the detailed three-dimensional nanostructure of DBCs. Specifically, unbiased CGMC simulations are performed with SAXS-guided initial conditions, which aids us to sample accurate nanostructures in a computationally efficient fashion. As a result, an elliptical bilayer nanostructure is obtained as the most probable nanostructure of DBCs whose dimensions are validated by scanning electron microscope (SEM) images. Then, utilizing the obtained molecular model of DBCs, here we could also explain the pH tunability of the system. Overall, our results from SAXS-guided unbiased CGMC simulations highlight that using potential energy combined with SAXS data, we can distinguish otherwise degenerate nanostructures resulting from the inherent ambiguity of SAXS patterns.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Extension of the Hauser-Feshbach fission fragment decay model to multichance fission

The Hauser-Feshbach fission fragment decay model, HF 3 D, which calculates the statistical decay of fission fragments, has been expanded to include multichance fission, up to neutron incident energies of 20 MeV. The deterministic decay takes as input prescission quantities—fission probabilities and the average energy causing fission—and postscission quantities—yields in mass, charge, total kinetic energy, spin, and parity. From these fission fragment initial conditions, the full decay is followed through both prompt and delayed particle emissions, allowing for the calculation of prompt neutron and γ properties, such as multiplicity and energy distributions, both independent and cumulative fission yields, and delayed neutron observables. Here, we describe the implementation of multichance fission in the HF 3 D model, and show an example of prompt and delayed quantities beyond first-chance fission, using the example of neutron-induced fission on 235 U. This expansion represents significant progress in consistently modeling the emission of prompt and delayed particles from fissile systems.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Apollo 16 returned lunar samples - Lithophile trace-element abundances

Lithium, K, Rb, Sr, Ba, rare-earth, Zr, and Hf abundances have been determined by mass-spectrometric isotope-dilution for Apollo 16 soils, anorthosite 61016, and 'basalt' 68415 whole-rock and separated pyroxene and plagioclase. Our sample of 61016 is similar to some other lunar anorthosites in lithophile trace-element concentrations but at a slightly lower level. It was probably accumulated from a little differentiated basalt. Basalt 68415 might be a homogeneous mixture of KREEP and anorthosite material; it appears to have crystallized under conditions as reducing as those holding for mare-basalts. The soil fines cover only a limited compositional range. No obvious chemical differences were noted between the Descartes and Cayley formations. Most of the compositional variation of the soils can be accounted for in terms of the addition of plagioclase. The existence of very high alumina basalt as an independent magma-type appears debatable in view of its KREEP-like lithophile trace-element relative concentrations and the observed lunar radioactivity distribution.

Philpotts, J. A.↗

Effects of atomic oxygen on graphite ablation

It is shown that a previously derived semiempirical equation for describing observed ablation rates of isotropic graphites cannot be applied to low-density flows containing dissociated oxygen. Experimentally determined reaction probabilities of isotropic graphites to molecular and atomic oxygen are used to calculate heat-transfer rates and stagnation-point ablation rates for typical conditions. Integrated mass losses are computed for a group of flight trajectories which start from geosynchronous orbit and enter earth's atmosphere in a skipping motion following near-elliptic decaying orbits. A comparison of the results with those obtained by the equation under question shows excellent agreement for steep trajectories, but large discrepancies for shallow trajectories. The differences are attributed to surface oxidation by atomic oxygen.

Park, C.↗

Ultraviolet irradiation at elevated temperatures and thermal cycling in vacuum of FEP-A covered silicon solar cells

Silicon solar cells covered with FEP-A were irradiated in vacuum with ultraviolet light and then subjected to thermal cycling. These accelerated laboratory conditions are believed to be equivalent to those experienced by FEP-A covered cells on the ATS-6 spacecraft and the results indicate a probable mechanism for the faster degradation of the FEP-A covered cells. Heat-bonded FEP-A covers apparently embrittle when exposed to four months of space UV radiation at elevated temperatures, and crack when subjected to thermal cycling during the eclipse period. Low energy proton radiation can then penetrate to the junction of the cell causing degradation of the open circuit voltage and maximum power to occur. An alternate method of application of FEP-A, such as with adhesives, may prevent such cracking.

Broder, J. D.↗

Cycles till failure of silver-zinc cells with completing failures modes: Preliminary data analysis

One hundred and twenty nine cells were run through charge-discharge cycles until failure. The experiment design was a variant of a central composite factorial in five factors. Preliminary data analysis consisted of response surface estimation of life. Batteries fail under two basic modes; a low voltage condition and an internal shorting condition. A competing failure modes analysis using maximum likelihood estimation for the extreme value life distribution was performed. Extensive diagnostics such as residual plotting and probability plotting were employed to verify data quality and choice of model.

Sidik, S. M.↗

Wind shear and vortex wake research in UK, 1982

A wind shear and vortex wake and their impact on aircraft were investigated. The systems and advice to help pilots, and rational scientific methods to assist in advising certification authorities and those interested in improving flight safety were developed. Wind Shear and Vortex Wakes are related, they are both invisible enemies of aircraft in the form of large disturbances in the atmosphere, both cause major accidents. Problems of building wakes at airports are is considered. Research on wind shear was initiated by the American FAA following the Boston, New York and Denver accidents to civil airliners. This resulted in: useful advice to pilots about wind shear; better attempts by the meteorologists at forecasting wind shear conditions; and useful ideas for wind shear measurement and warning systems. Three major research tasks are outstanding: (1) Worldwide measurements to give reliable estimates of probability and details of the forms of large wind shears; (2) Developments of real time wind shear measuring systems for ground or airborne use; and (3) Establishing relationships between measured wind shear and the potential hazard to an aircraft, or class of aircraft.

Alan A. Woodfield↗