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DOE OSTI2018

Profiling at Oliktok Point to Enhance Year of Polar Prediction Experiments (POPEYE) Science Plan

The arctic region is rapidly evolving, and enhanced predictive capabilities, for both weather and climate, are urgently required. Therefore, the international community has formulated plans for the execution of an extended period of focused observations and modeling of the arctic environment, dubbed the “Year of Polar Prediction” or YOPP. The YOPP will feature “special observing periods” (SOPs), with the first occurring in the spring of 2018, and a second during the late summer and early fall. This project deploys additional U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) facility resources to Oliktok Point, Alaska during the second three-month special observing period (1 July 2018-30 September 2018). These resources include additional radiosondes (1 more per day), ARM-operated unmanned aircraft (DH2) and ARM-operated tethered balloon systems (TBS). These instruments will conduct routine profiling activities over the course of the SOP to obtain measurements of atmospheric thermodynamic structure, cloud and precipitation properties, and aerosol properties, enhancing the measurements obtained from the third ARM Mobile Facility at Oliktok Point (AMF3). We anticipate that these measurements will be used for a variety of purposes, including: 1) to conduct detailed studies of arctic cloud and aerosol processes; 2) to inform YOPP modeling efforts through real-time availability for assimilation into operational and research analysis products; 3) to evaluate and improve retrieval algorithms involving ARM remote sensors; 4) to evaluate and improve a variety of modeling tools being used to forecast arctic weather and climate; and 5) to initialize and evaluate simulations associated with a potential arctic large-eddy simulation (LES) framework similar to the ongoing LES ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) project.

Arctic processes, Oliktok Point, Year of Polar Pre↗

DOE OSTI2019

Compact Cloud Condensation Nucleus Counter for Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) and Long-Term Monitoring Applications (Final Report)

Brechtel Manufacturing Incorporated (BMI) is developing a compact, modular suite of new aerosol measurement technologies optimized for use on Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and other applications where space, weight, power and cost are significant barriers to deployment. The project is focused on a cloud condensation nucleus counter that exposes sampled particles to a simulated cloud environment and counts how many of the particles grow to micron-sized droplets. The new development helps address the need for reduced uncertainties in climate model sensitivities to ambient aerosol properties by promoting the capability to perform aerosol measurements more often, in more locations, and at reduced cost. Applications of the new technology include long-term measurements of the aerosol effects on cloud radiation, microphysical and precipitation processes, weather prediction and modelling studies, and weather modification studies.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Microphysical-macrophysical interactions in low cloud systems over the Eastern North Atlantic

How low clouds over the oceans respond to changes in atmospheric greenhouse gases and aerosol particles is poorly understood. Climate model disagreement in these responses limits the accuracy of predictions of future climate. Processes governing the behavior of marine low cloud need to be improved in models and comprehensive long-term observations provide important constraints. Cloud structure and impacts on climate are shaped by processes operating on a wide range of time and space scales, which interact to modulate cloud dynamics, boundary layer structure, and precipitation. The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site at Graciosa Island (Azores, 28°W 39°N) began taking measurements in late 2013 to address the need for comprehensive cloud, aerosol, and meteorological observations in a remote marine low cloud environment. The site straddles the boundary between the subtropical and midlatitude climate zones in the eastern North Atlantic and experiences a great diversity of meteorological and cloud conditions. In addition, the ENA site is downwind of the North American continent and is periodically impacted by continental aerosol particles transported there on the prevailing winds. In response to a 2014 proposal call, our team (ENA Site Science Team) laid out a strategy to accelerate research focused on understanding the multi-scale interactions that shape cloud properties by maximizing the utility of the observational capabilities of the ENA site. The proposed work aligned with the scientific directions of the ASR Working Groups. The team, together with collaborators, conducted a program of research focused upon multi-scale cloud processes. The team worked with scientists both within and outside the Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program, and with the ARM infrastructure to ensure that the full potential of the ENA site is realized. The suite of instruments at the ENA site has been increasing since the site’s inception and is now essentially complete. In 2019, we laid out a two-year extension of the research, and were granted an extension of the Site Science award.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Department of Energy’s Atmospheric System Research (ASR) Program’s Workshop on the Future of Atmospheric Large Eddy Simulation (LES): Workshop Report

Large-eddy simulation (LES) is used as a tool to understand physical processes such as turbulence, aerosols, clouds, precipitation, radiation, the interactions among all these, and their interactions with the underlying surface. Over the next 10 years, LES will drive fundamental progress in open scientific questions in these areas as LES is increasingly used to gain understanding of complex interacting physical processes involving atmospheric turbulence. This growth will be driven both by scientific demand and the expansion of computational resources needed to conduct LES, and the form that the growth takes will largely be determined by how computational resources are leveraged for scientific gain. In particular, we suggest that computational resources are likely to be leveraged in two separate but not necessarily distinct ways. On one hand, growth in computational resources will allow LES to be made more routine, that is, performed more frequently, while on the other hand, the computational expense (measured in total floating point operations) afforded to individual LES will expand dramatically, allowing simulations to increase in both domain size and resolution as well as physical detail. Current U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) projects such as LES ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation Activity (LASSO) are leading the way in conducting routine LES, building large, public databases that are accessible for data science, sensitivity studies, and training for machine learning. LES will also become more routine as it becomes more accessible for individual researchers to address their scientific questions of interest. Scientific questions addressed by LES over the next 10 years are likely to include cloud organization and aggregation; aerosol cloud interactions and atmospheric chemistry (including geo-engineering); urban-scale LES; atmospheric extreme events, ranging from small-scale severe weather to wildfires; and ocean-wave-atmosphere interactions. Further LES-related research will likely grow significantly in areas related to societal impact studies of air quality and extreme weather events, applications to renewable energy forecasting and resource assessment, and aid in decision-making processes. The growth in the use of LES in atmospheric science research will drive the need for better physical process representations (e.g., cloud aerosol microphysics, radiation, and atmospheric chemistry) at the scales resolved by LES. To date, many of the process representations used by LES have been taken directly from coarser-resolution models. Promising methods for LES process representations include superdroplet and quadrature methods for microphysics, 3D approaches for radiation, and better representation of chemistry and aerosol processes. At LES resolution, land-atmosphere interactions for complex terrains, land cover/types, biogeochemistry, and plant canopy models are needed as an improvement beyond traditional and widely used Monin-Obuhkov similarity theory.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

A numerical simulation of CCN impacts on weather modification efficiency

Aerosols affect development of clouds and precipitation by serving as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN). Considering the dramatically changing ambient aerosol concentration, it is important to examine the potential “side effect” of aerosol pollution on precipitation enhancement by weather modification. In this study, the cloud seeding was performed on a precipitation event in Beijing in the summer of 2008, which is simulated by the NSSL two-moment cloud scheme of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Sensitivity tests were conducted by modifying the ambient aerosol concentration and the ice crystal seeding amount to investigate the cloud seeding efficacy in different CCN concentration scenarios. There was a slight difference in the precipitation distribution between the simulations with two ambient CCN concentrations: the northern precipitation center in polluted scenario was weaker and the southern center was stronger. Compared with normal CCN scenario, the cloud liquid water mass and ice crystal mass in the severe pollution scenario is larger, and the total contents of snow and graupel were not sensitive to the CCN concentration. With the same amount of man-made ice crystals seeding, the precipitation enhancement was quite different under different CCN conditions. The higher the CCN concentration usually leads to stronger precipitation suppression. As CCN concentration increase, the deposition growth of snow, auto-conversion and accretion of ice crystals to snow were weakened, as well as the conversion of melting snow and graupel into rainwater.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Quantifying Impacts of Aerosol Mixing State on Nucleation-Scavenging of Black Carbon Aerosol Particles

Recent observational studies suggest that nucleation-scavenging is the principal path to removing black carbon-containing aerosol from the atmosphere, thus affecting black carbon’s lifetime and radiative forcing. Modeling the process of nucleation-scavenging is challenging, since black carbon (BC) forms complex internal mixtures with other aerosol species. Here, we examined the impacts of black carbon mixing state on nucleation scavenging using the particle-resolved aerosol model PartMC-MOSAIC. This modeling approach has the unique advantage that complex aerosol mixing states can be represented on a per-particle level. For a scenario library that comprised hundreds of diverse aerosol populations, we quantified nucleation-scavenged BC mass fractions. Consistent with measurements, these vary widely, depending on the amount of BC, the amount of coating and coating material, as well as the environmental supersaturation. We quantified the error in the nucleation-scavenged black carbon mass fraction introduced when assuming an internally mixed distribution, and determined its bounds depending on environmental supersaturation and on the aerosol mixing state index χ . For a given χ value, the error decreased at higher supersaturations. For more externally mixed populations (χ <20%), the nucleation-scavenged BC mass fraction could be overestimated by more than 1000% at supersaturations of 0.1%, while for more internally mixed populations (χ >75%), the error was below 100% for the range of supersaturations (from 0.02% to 1%) investigated here. Thus, accounting for black carbon mixing state and knowledge of the supersaturation of the environment are crucial when determining the amount of black carbon that can be incorporated into clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1991

The polarization lidar technique for cloud research - A review and current assessment

The development of the polarization lidar technique is reviewed, and the current capabilities and limitations of the technique for the cloud research are discussed. At present, polarization lidar is a key component of climate-research programs designed to characterize the properties of cirrus clouds and is an integral part of multiple remote-sensor studies of mixed-phase cloud systems such as winter mountain storms, making it possible to discriminate between cloud phases and to identify some particle types and orientations. Recent theoretical approaches involving ice crystal ray-tracing and cloud microphysical-model simulations are expected to increase the utility of the polarization lidar technique.

Sassen, Kenneth↗

NASA NTRS1995

A Bayesian approach to microwave precipitation profile retrieval

A multichannel passive microwave precipitation retrieval algorithm is developed. Bayes theorem is used to combine statistical information from numerical cloud models with forward radiative transfer modeling. A multivariate lognormal prior probability distribution contains the covariance information about hydrometeor distribution that resolves the nonuniqueness inherent in the inversion process. Hydrometeor profiles are retrieved by maximizing the posterior probability density for each vector of observations. The hydrometeor profile retrieval method is tested with data from the Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (10, 19, 37, and 85 GHz) of convection over ocean and land in Florida. The CP-2 multiparameter radar data are used to verify the retrieved profiles. The results show that the method can retrieve approximate hydrometeor profiles, with larger errors over land than water. There is considerably greater accuracy in the retrieval of integrated hydrometeor contents than of profiles. Many of the retrieval errors are traced to problems with the cloud model microphysical information, and future improvements to the algorithm are suggested.

Evans, K. Franklin↗

NASA NTRS2000

A Plan for Measuring Climatic Scale Global Precipitation Variability: The Global Precipitation Mission

The outstanding success of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) stemmed from a near flawless launch and deployment, a highly successful measurement campaign, achievement of all original scientific objectives before the mission life had ended, and the accomplishment of a number of unanticipated but important additional scientific advances. This success and the realization that satellite rainfall datasets are now a foremost tool in the understanding of decadal climate variability has helped motivate a comprehensive global rainfall measuring mission, called 'The Global Precipitation Mission' (GPM). The intent of this mission is to address looming scientific questions arising in the context of global climate-water cycle interactions, hydrometeorology, weather prediction, the global carbon budget, and atmosphere-biosphere-cryosphere chemistry. This paper addresses the status of that mission currently planed for launch in the early 2007 time frame. The GPM design involves a nine-member satellite constellation, one of which will be an advanced TRMM-like 'core' satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band radar (df-PR) and a TMI-like radiometer. The other eight members of the constellation can be considered drones to the core satellite, each carrying some type of passive microwave radiometer measuring across the 10.7-85 GHz frequency range, likely based on both real and synthetic aperture antenna technology and to include a combination of new lightweight dedicated GPM drones and both co-existing operational and experimental satellites carrying passive microwave radiometers (i.e., SSM/l, AMSR, etc.). The constellation is designed to provide a minimum of three-hour sampling at any spot on the globe using sun-synchronous orbit architecture, with the core satellite providing relevant measurements on internal cloud precipitation microphysical processes. The core satellite also enables 'training' and 'calibration' of the drone retrieval process. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Smith, Eric A.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Current Development of Global Precipitation Mission (GPM)

The scientific success of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and additional satellite-focused precipitation retrieval projects, particularly those based on use of passive microwave radiometer measurements, have paved the way for a more advanced global precipitation mission. The new mission is motivated by a number of scientific questions that TRMM research has posed over a range of space-time scales and within a variety of scientific disciplines that are becoming more integrated into earth system science modeling. Added to this success is the realization that satellite rainfall datasets are now a foremost tool in understanding global climate variability out to decadal scales and beyond. This progress has motivated a comprehensive global measuring strategy -- leading to the "Global Precipitation Mission" (GPM). GPM is planning to expand the scope of rainfall measurement through use of a satellite constellation. The intent is to address looming scientific questions arising in the context of global climate-water cycle interactions, hydrometeorology, weather prediction & prediction of fresh water resources, the global carbon budget, and biogeochemical cycles. This talk overviews the status and scientific agenda of this mission currently planned for launch in the 2007-2008 time frame. The GPM notional design involves a 10-member satellite constellation, one of which will be an advanced TRMM-like "core" satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band radar (DFPR) and a TMI-like radiometer. The other nine members of the constellation will be considered daughters of the core satellite, each carrying some type of passive microwave radiometer measuring across the 10.7-85 GHz frequency range -- likely to include a combination of lightweight satellites and co-existing operational/experimental satellites carrying passive microwave radiometers (i.e., 2 DMSP/SSMISs, GCOM-B1/AMSR-J, & Megha Tropiques/MADRAS). The goal behind the constellation is to achieve no worse than 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe. The constellation's orbit architecture will consist of a mix of sun-synchronous and non- sun-synchronous daughter satellites, with the core satellite providing relevant measurements on internal cloud-precipitation microphysical processes plus "training-calibrating" information to be used with the retrieval algorithms for the daughter satellite measurements. The GPM is organized internationally, currently involving a partnership between NASA in the US, NASDA in Japan, and ESA in Europe (representing the European community nations). The mission is expected to involve additional international participants, sister agencies to the mainstream space agencies, and a diverse collection scientists from academia, government, and the private sector.

Smith, Eric A.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Overview and Scientific Agenda of Global Precipitation Mission

This paper addresses the status of the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) currently planned for launch in the 2007-2008 time frame. The GPM notional design involves a 9-member satellite constellation, one of which wilt be an advanced TRMM-like "core" satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band radar (DFPR) and a TMI-like radiometer. The other eight members of the constellation will be considered daughters of the core satellite, each carrying some type of passive microwave radiometer measuring across the 10.7 - 85 GHz ,frequency range - likely to include a combination of lightweight satellites and co-existing operational/Experimental satellites carrying passive microwave radiometers (i.e., SSM/I and AMSR-E & -F). The constellation is designed to provide no worse than 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe using sun-synchronous orbit architecture for the daughter satellites, with the core satellite providing relevant measurements on internal cloud-precipitation microphysical processes and the "training-calibrating" information for retrieval algorithms used on daughter satellite measurements. The GPM is organized internationally, currently involving a partnership between NASA in the US, NASDA in Japan, and ESA in Europe (representing the European community nations). The mission is expected to involve additional international participants, sister agencies to the mainstream space agencies, and a diverse collection scientists from academia, government, and the private sector, A critical element in understanding the scientific thinking which has motivated the GPM project is an understanding of what scientific problems TRMM has and has not been able to address and at what scales. The TRMM satellite broke important scientific ground because it carried to space an array of rain-sensitive instruments, two of which were specifically designed for physical precipitation retrieval. These were the 9-channel TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and the 13.8 GHz Precipitation Radar (PR). By the same token, because TRMM is a single satellite in a low inclination, low altitude, non-sun-synchronous orbit, it cannot provide global coverage or regular diurnal sampling. These features are essential for many current scientific inquiries involving physical processes of climate and the global water cycle, the modeling of hydrometeorological-biogeochemical cycling, and coupled land-atmosphere/ocean-atmosphere exchanges. Moreover, TRMM has not been able to retrieve explicit properties of the drop size distribution (DSD), a final major barrier to making accurate rain measurements, because the single frequency TRMM radar cannot measure differential reflectivity. which is a minimal requirement for attacking rain retrieval within the framework of extinction cross-section-dependency. GPM is expected to surmount much of the DSD retrieval problem because its core satellite wilt have the capacity to make differential reflectivity measurements with its Ku-Ka band radar (13.6 - 35 GHz) called DFPR - being developed by NASDA/CRL in Japan. This paper will provide an overview of the above issues as well as present a discussion on the expected measurement improvements.

Smith, Eric A.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Towards the Development of a Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission Concept

The scientific success of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and additional satellite-focused precipitation retrieval projects have paved the way for a more advanced global precipitation mission. A comprehensive global measuring strategy is currently under study - Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM). The GPM study could ultimately lead to the development of the Global Precipitation Mission. The intent of GPM is to address looming scientific questions arising in the context of global climate-water cycle interactions, hydrometeorology, weather prediction and prediction of freshwater resources, the global carbon cycle, and biogeochemical cycles. This talk overviews the status and scientific agenda of this proposed mission currently planned for launch in the 2007-2008 time frame. GPM is planning to expand the scope of precipitation measurement through the use of a constellation of 6-10 satellites, one of which will be an advanced TRMM-like "core" satellite carry dual-frequency Ku-Ka band radar and a microwave radiometer (e.g. TMI-like). The other constellation members will likely include new lightweight satellites and co-existing operational/research satellites carrying passive microwave radiometers. The goal behind the constellation is to achieve no worse than 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe. The constellation's orbit architecture will consist of a mix of sun-synchronous and non-su n -synchronous satellites with the "core" satellite providing measurement of cloud-precipitation microphysical processes plus "training calibrating" information to be used with the retrieval algorithms for the constellation satellite measurements. The GPM is organized internationally, currently involving a partnership between NASA in the US, NASDA in Japan, and ESA in Europe (representing the European community). The program is expected to involve additional international partners, other federal agencies, and a diverse collection of scientists from academia, government, and the private sector.

Shepherd, Marshall↗

NASA NTRS2002

Relationship of Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission to Global Change Research

In late 2001, the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission was approved as a new start by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). This new mission is motivated by a number of scientific questions that are posed over a range of space and time scales that generally fall within the discipline of the global water and energy cycle (GWEC). Recognizing that satellite rainfall datasets are now a foremost tool for understanding global climate variability out to decadal scales and beyond, for improving weather forecasting, and for producing better predictions of hydrometeorological processes including short-term hazardous flooding and seasonal fresh water resources assessment, a comprehensive and internationally sanctioned global measuring strategy has led to the GPM mission. The GPM mission plans to expand the scope of rainfall measurement through use of a multi-member satellite constellation that will be contributed by a number of world nations. This talk overviews the GPM scientific research program that has been fostered within NASA, then focuses on scientific progress that is being made in various research areas in the course of the mission formulation phase that are of interest to the global change scientific community. This latter part of the talk addresses research issues that have become central to the GPM science implementation plan concerning: (1) the rate of global water cycling through the atmosphere and surface and the relationship of precipitation variability to the sustained rate of the water cycle; (2) the relationship between climate change and cloud macrophysical- microphysical processes; and (3) the general improvement in measuring precipitation at the fundamental microphysical level that will take place during the GPM era and an explanation of how these improvements are expected to come about.

Smith, Eric A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Influence of Ice-phase of Hydrometeors on Moist-Convection

Climate models often ignore the influence of ice-phase physics (IPP) of hydrometeors as a second order effect. This has also been true for McRAS (Microphysics of clouds with Relaxed Arakawa Schubert Scheme) developed by the authors. Recognizing that the temperature sounding is critical for moist-convection, and, that IPP would modify it, we investigated the influence of introducing IPP into McRAS coupled to FvGCM (finite volume General Circulation Model with NCAR physics). We analyzed three 3-yr long simulations; the first called Control Case, CC and had no IPP; the other two called Experiments El and E2 had IPP introduced with two different in-cloud freezing assumptions. Simulation El assumed that all hydrometeors remain liquid in the updraft and freeze upon detrainment. Simulation E2 invoked the in-cloud freezing of new condensate generated at subfreezing temperatures in the updraft while old cloud water continued to ascend as liquid. Upon detrainment, this cloud water also froze like in E1. With these assumptions, about 50% of hydrometeors froze in the tower and the rest froze in the anvil. However, in both El and E2, the frozen hydrometeors melted during fall at the first encounter of above freezing ambient temperature. Comparative analysis revealed that El simulated far more mid-level and far less deep clouds while E2 had modified deep and more mid-level clouds as compared to CC along with some major changes around the melt-level. We infer that IPP produced a more realistic response in E2. At the basic level, the results show that ice-phase processes influence convective detrainment at mid- and deep levels in accord with TOGAGOARE observations. The results suggest that IPP can help to mitigate less-than-observed mid-level and over-abundance of deep convective clouds in McRAS.

Sud, Y. C.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Leveraging Improvements in Precipitation Measuring from GPM Mission to Achieve Prediction Improvements in Climate, Weather and Hydrometeorology

The main scientific goal of the GPM mission, currently planned for start in the 2007 time frame, is to investigate important scientific problems arising within the context of global and regional water cycles. These problems cut across a hierarchy of scales and include climate-water cycle interactions, techniques for improving weather and climate predictions, and better methods for combining observed precipitation with hydrometeorological prediction models for applications to hazardous flood-producing storms, seasonal flood/draught conditions, and fresh water resource assessments. The GPM mission will expand the scope of precipitation measurement through the use of a constellation of some 9 satellites, one of which will be an advanced TRMM-like "core" satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band precipitation radar and an advanced, multifrequency passive microwave radiometer with vertical-horizontal polarization discrimination. The other constellation members will include new dedicated satellites and co-existing Operational/research satellites carrying similar (but not identical) passive microwave radiometers. The goal of the constellation is to achieve approximately 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe. The constellation's orbit architecture will consist of a mix of sun-synchronous and non-sun-synchronous satellites with the core satellite providing measurements of cloud-precipitation microphysical processes plus calibration-quality rainrate retrievals to be used with the other retrieval information to ensure bias-free constellation coverage. GPM is organized internationally, currently involving a partnership between NASA in the US and the National Space Development Agency in Japan. Additionally, the program is actively pursuing agreements with other international partners and domestic scientific agencies and institutions, as well as participation by individual scientists from academia, government, and the private sector to fulfill mission goals and to pave the way for what ultimately is expected to become an internationally-organized operational global precipitation observing system. Notably, the broad societal applications of GPM are reflected in the United Nation s identification of this mission as a foremost candidate for its Peaceful Uses of Space Program. In this presentation, an overview of the GPM mission design will be presented, followed by an explanation of its scientific agenda as an outgrowth of making improvements in rain retrieval accuracy, microphysics dexterity, sampling frequency, and global coverage. All of these improvements offer new means to observe variability in precipitation and water cycle fluxes and to achieve improved predictability of weather, climate, and hydrometeorology. Specifically, the scientific agenda of GPM has been designed to leverage the measurement improvements to improve prognostic model performance, particularly quantitative precipitation forecasting and its linked phenomena at short, intermediate, and extended time scales. The talk will address how GPM measurements will enable better detection of accelerations and decelerations in regional and global water cycle processes and their relationship to climate variability, better impacts of precipitation data assimilation on numerical weather prediction and global climate reanalysis, and better performance from basin scale hydrometeorological models for short and long term flood-drought forecasting and seasonal fresh water resource assessment. Improved hydrometeorological forecasting will be possible by using continuous global precipitation observations to obtain better closure in water budgets and to generate more realistic forcing of the models themselves to achieve more accurate estimates of interception, infiltration, evaporation/transpiration fluxes, storage, and runoff.

Smith, Eric A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Anticipated Improvements in Precipitation Physics and Understanding of Water Cycle from GPM Mission

The GPM mission is currently planned for start in the late-2007 to early-2008 time frame. Its main scientific goal is to help answer pressing scientific problems arising within the context of global and regional water cycles. These problems cut across a hierarchy of scales and include climate-water cycle interactions, techniques for improving weather and climate predictions, and better methods for combining observed precipitation with hydrometeorological prediction models for applications to hazardous flood-producing storms, seasonal flood/draught conditions, and fresh water resource assessments. The GPM mission will expand the scope of precipitation measurement through the use of a constellation of some 9 satellites, one of which will be an advanced TRMM-like core satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band precipitation radar and an advanced, multifrequency passive microwave radiometer with vertical-horizontal polarization discrimination. The other constellation members will include new dedicated satellites and co-existing operational/research satellites carrying similar (but not identical) passive microwave radiometers. The goal of the constellation is to achieve approximately 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe -- continuously. The constellation s orbit architecture will consist of a mix of sun-synchronous and non-sun-synchronous satellites with the core satellite providing measurements of cloud-precipitation microphysical processes plus calibration-quality rainrate retrievals to be used with the other retrieval information to ensure bias-free constellation coverage. GPM is organized internationally, involving existing, pending, projected, and under-study partnerships which will link NASA and NOAA in the US, NASDA in Japan, ESA in Europe, ISRO in India, CNES in France, and possibly AS1 in Italy, KARI in South Korea, CSA in Canada, and AEB in Brazil. Additionally, the program is actively pursuing agreements with other international collaborators and domestic scientific agencies and institutions, as well as participation by individual scientists from academia, government, and the private sector to fulfill mission goals and to pave the way for what is expected to become an internationally-organized operational global precipitation observing system. Notably, the broad societal applications of GPM are reflected in the United Nation s identification of GPM as a foremost candidate for its Peaceful Uses of Space Program. An overview of the GPM mission design is given, followed by an explanation of its scientific agenda as an outgrowth of making improvements in rain retrieval accuracy, microphysics dexterity, sampling frequency, and global coverage. All of these improvements offer new means to observe variability in precipitation and water cycle fluxes and to achieve improved predictability of weather, climate, and hydrometeorology. Specifically, the scientific agenda of GPM has been designed to leverage the measurement improvements to improve prognostic model performance, particularly quantitative precipitation forecasting and its linked phenomena at short, intermediate, and extended time scales. The talk addresses how GPM measurements will enable better detection of accelerations and decelerations in regional and global water cycle processes and their relationship to climate variability, better impacts of precipitation data assimilation on numerical weather prediction and global climate reanalysis, and better performance from basin scale hydrometeorological models for short and long term flood-drought forecasting and seasonal fresh water resource assessment. These improvements become possible by using more accurate, more microphysically-centric, more frequent, and fully global precipitation observations to achieve better water budget closure and to provide more realistic forcing and assessment of prediction models.

Smith, Eric A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

A Physical Validation Program for the GPM Mission

The GPM mission is currently planned for start in the late 2007 - early 2008 time frame. Its main scientific goal is to help answer pressing scientific problems arising within the context of global and regional water cycling. These problems cut across a hierarchy of scales and include climate-water cycle interactions, techniques for improving weather and climate predictions, and better methods for combining observed precipitation with hydrometeorological prediction models for applications to hazardous flood-producing storms, seasonal flood draught conditions, and fresh water resource assessments. The GPM mission will expand the scope of precipitation measurement through the use of a constellation of some 9 satellites, one of which will be an advanced TRMM-like core satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band precipitation radar and an advanced, multifrequency passive microwave radiometer with vertical-horizontal polarization discrimination. The other constellation members will include new dedicated satellites and co-existing operational/research satellites carrying similar (but not identical) passive microwave radiometers. The goal of the constellation is to achieve approximately 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe -- continuously. The constellation's orbit architecture will consist of a mix of sun-synchronous and non-sun-synchronous satellites with the core satellite providing measurements of cloud-precipitation microphysical processes plus calibration-quality rainrate retrievals to be used with the other retrieval information to ensure bias-free constellation coverage. A major requirement before the retrieved rainfall information generated by the GPM mission can be used effectively by prognostic models to improve weather forecasts, hydrometeorological forecasts, and climate model reanalysis simulations is a capability to quantify the error characteristics of the retrievals. A solution for this problem has been upheld in past precipitation missions because of the lack of suitable error modeling systems incorporated into the validation programs and data distribution systems. An overview of how NASA intends to overcome this problem for the GPM mission using a physically-based error modeling approach within a multi-faceted validation program is described. The solution is to first identify specific user requirements and then determine the most stringent of these requirements that embodies all essential error characterization information needed by the entire user community. In the context of NASA s scientific agenda for the GPM mission, the most stringent user requirement is found within the data assimilation community. The fundamental theory of data assimilation vis-a-vis ingesting satellite precipitation information into the pre-forecast initializations is based on quantifying the conditional bias and precision errors of individual rain retrievals, and the space-time structure of the precision error (i.e., the spatial-temporal error covariance). By generating the hardware and software capability to produce this information in a near real-time fashion, and to couple the derived quantitative error properties to the actual retrieved rainrates, all key validation users can be satisfied. The talk will describe the essential components of the hardware and software systems needed to generate such near real-time error properties, as well as the various paradigm shifts needed within the validation community to produce a validation program relevant to the precipitation user community.

Smith, Eric A.↗

NASA NTRS2004

GPM Mission, its Scientific Agenda, and its Ground Validation Program

The GPM mission is currently planned for start in the late 2010 time frame. From the perspective of NASA s Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) and within the framework of ESE's global water and energy cycle (GWEC) research program, its main scientific goal is to help answer pressing scientific problems concerning how global and regional water cycle processes and precipitation fluctuations and trends influence the variability intrinsic to climate, weather, and hydrology. These problems cut across a hierarchy of space-time scales and include improving understanding of climate-water cycle interactions, developing better techniques for incorporating satellite precipitation measurements into weather and climate predictions, and demonstrating that more accurate, more complete, and better sampled observations of precipitation and other water budget variables used as inputs can improve the ability of prognostic hydrometeorological models in the prediction of hazardous flood-producing storms, seasonal flood/draught conditions, and fresh water resource stores. The GPM mission will expand the scope of precipitation measurement through the use of a constellation of some 9 satellites, one of which will be an advanced TRMM-like core satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band precipitation radar (DPR) and an advanced, multifrequency passive microwave radiometer with vertical-horizontal polarization discrimination (GMI). The other constellation members will include a combination of new dedicated satellites and co-existing operational/research satellites carrying similar (but not identical) passive microwave radiometers. The goal of the constellation is to achieve 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe -- continuously. The constellation s orbit architecture will consist of a mix of sun-synchronous and non-sun-synchronous satellites with the core satellite providing measurements of calibration-quality rainrates, plus cloud-precipitation microphysical processes, to be used in conjunction with more basic rain retrievals from the other constellation satellites to ensure bias-free constellation coverage.

Smith Eric A.↗