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At least 937 records · Page 52

Cloud-radiation Interactions and Cloud-climate Feedbacks from an Active-sensor Satellite Perspective

Clouds are ubiquitous in the troposphere. Their interactions with radiation may result in either a warming or a cooling of the Earth system and generate diverse climate feedbacks. The vertical structure of the radiative effects of clouds as well as the response of clouds to global warming (i.e., the cloud feedbacks) are inadequately constrained within the diversity of current climate models, which limits our ability to project the magnitude of future warming. In this chapter we show how relatively recent active-sensor spaceborne observations have narrowed constraints on cloud feedbacks. The value added beyond what can be retrieved from passive sensors is only just beginning to be exploited.

Cloud radiation↗

Climate Shifts Within Major Agricultural Seasons for +1.5 and +2.0 °C Worlds: HAPPI Projections and AgMIP Modeling Scenarios

This study compares climate changes in major agricultural regions and current agricultural seasons associated with global warming of +1.5 or +2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions. It describes the generation of climate scenarios for agricultural modeling applications conducted as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments. Climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts project (HAPPI) are largely consistent with transient scenarios extracted from RCP4.5 simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Focusing on food and agricultural systems and top-producing breadbaskets in particular, we distinguish maize, rice, wheat, and soy season changes from global annual mean climate changes. Many agricultural regions warm at a rate that is faster than the global mean surface temperature (including oceans) but slower than the mean land surface temperature, leading to regional warming that exceeds 0.5 °C between the +1.5 and +2.0 °C Worlds. Agricultural growing seasons warm at a pace slightly behind the annual temperature trends in most regions, while precipitation increases slightly ahead of the annual rate. Rice cultivation regions show reduced warming as they are concentrated where monsoon rainfall is projected to intensify, although projections are influenced by Asian aerosol loading in climate mitigation scenarios. Compared to CMIP5, HAPPI slightly underestimates the CO2 concentration that corresponds to the +1.5 °C World but overestimates the CO2 concentration for the +2.0 °C World, which means that HAPPI scenarios may also lead to an overestimate in the beneficial effects of CO2 on crops in the +2.0 °C World. HAPPI enables detailed analysis of the shifting distribution of extreme growing season temperatures and precipitation, highlighting widespread increases in extreme heat seasons and heightened skewness toward hot seasons in the tropics. Shifts in the probability of extreme drought seasons generally tracked median precipitation changes; however, some regions skewed toward drought conditions even where median precipitation changes were small. Together, these findings highlight unique seasonal and agricultural region changes in the +1.5 °C and +2.0 °C worlds for adaptation planning in these climate stabilization targets.

Alexander C. Ruane↗

The toughest animals of the Earth versus global warming: Effects of long‐term experimental warming on tardigrade community structure of a temperate deciduous forest

Abstract Understanding how different taxa respond to global warming is essential for predicting future changes and elaborating strategies to buffer them. Tardigrades are well known for their ability to survive environmental stressors, such as drying and freezing, by undergoing cryptobiosis and rapidly recovering their metabolic function after stressors cease. Determining the extent to which animals that undergo cryptobiosis are affected by environmental warming will help to understand the real magnitude climate change will have on these organisms. Here, we report on the responses of tardigrades within a five‐year‐long, field‐based artificial warming experiment, which consisted of 12 open‐top chambers heated to simulate the projected effects of global warming (ranging from 0 to 5.5°C above ambient temperature) in a temperate deciduous forest of North Carolina (USA). To elucidate the effects of warming on the tardigrade community inhabiting the soil litter, three community diversity indices (abundance, species richness, and Shannon diversity) and the abundance of the three most abundant species ( Diphascon pingue , Adropion scoticum , and Mesobiotus sp.) were determined. Their relationships with air temperature, soil moisture, and the interaction between air temperature and soil moisture were tested using Bayesian generalized linear mixed models. Despite observed negative effects of warming on other ground invertebrates in previous studies at this site, long‐term warming did not affect the abundance, richness, or diversity of tardigrades in this experiment. These results are in line with previous experimental studies, indicating that tardigrades may not be directly affected by ongoing global warming, possibly due to their thermotolerance and cryptobiotic abilities to avoid negative effects of stressful temperatures, and the buffering effect on temperature of the soil litter substrate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Global Methane Observation System to Reduce Uncertainty for Anthropogenic and Natural Sources and Sinks for Detecting and Attributing Climate Feedbacks

Atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations are accelerating global warming as net emissions increase. Observing systems that quantify sources remain too sparse and fragmented to detect trends—especially in remote regions where climate‐driven natural emissions may be rising. We provide a framework for quantifying uncertainty reductions through the implementation of a global ecosystem‐methane observing system designed to: (i) substantially lower uncertainty in sectoral and regional emissions, (ii) separate co‐occurring anthropogenic and natural fluxes, and (iii) trend detection at regional scales to verify mitigation progress and provide early warning of natural feedbacks. Using bottom‐up inventories and process‐model ensembles for 2014–2023, we show that anthropogenic emissions remain uncertain by ∼32% globally, while natural sources—tropical and boreal‐arctic wetlands, fires, and inland waters—carry far larger uncertainties (+ 70%) and trend uncertainties reaching ∼200%. Additional observations must match spatial emission structure to increase observability of emissions: high‐resolution satellite constellations for point sources combined with expanded flux networks and wetland mapping for diffuse sources, and denser ground‐based atmospheric column measurements to restore observability in under‐sampled tropics and high latitudes. Notional analyses indicate that targeted additions of flux towers and ∼20 in situ atmospheric column concentration instruments per key tropical region could reduce continental‐scale uncertainties at modest cost. Conceptual illustration of a Global Ecosystem Methane Observing System (GEM‐OS) integrating satellites, aircraft, atmospheric networks, and ecosystem measurements to quantify methane emissions from anthropogenic and natural sources. The multi‐scale observing framework improves source attribution, reduces uncertainty in regional methane budgets, and enables early detection of climate‐driven feedbacks from wetlands, fires, permafrost, agriculture, and fossil‐fuel emissions.

Ciais, P↗

The Role of Bjerknes and Shortwave Feedbacks in the Tropical Pacific SST Response to Global Warming

Abstract The evolution of tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in response to greenhouse warming is of great societal and scientific interest. Most state‐of‐the‐art climate models predict a mean “El Niño‐like” warming pattern by century‐end, characterized by greater warming over the Pacific cold tongue compared to the western warm pool. However, it is unclear which proposed mechanism dominates in this response. Here, we present partially coupled abrupt CO 2 doubling experiments in which surface wind stress and shortwave heating are overridden to values from a control simulation. Contrary to previous studies, we find that experiments with overriding of surface wind stress exhibit only 58% of the full reduction in east‐west SST contrast. When both surface wind stress and shortwave flux are overridden, only 34% of the full reduction remains, controlled by spatially‐varying evaporative cooling. These results underscore the importance of Bjerknes and shortwave feedbacks in the tropical Pacific SST response to global warming.

Geology↗

Climate Change and Drought: From Past to Future

Drought is a complex and multivariate phenomenon influenced by diverse physical and biological processes. Such complexity precludes simplistic explanations of cause and effect, making investigations of climate change and drought a challenging task. Here, we review important recent advances in our understanding of drought dynamics, drawing from studies of paleoclimate, the historical record, and model simulations of the past and future. Paleoclimate studies of drought variability over the last two millennia have progressed considerably through the development of new reconstructions and analyses combining reconstructions with process-based models. This work has generated new evidence for tropical Pacific forcing of megadroughts in Southwest North America, provided additional constraints for interpreting climate change projections in poorly characterized regions like East Africa, and demonstrated the exceptional magnitude of many modern era droughts. Development of high resolution proxy networks has lagged in many regions (e.g., South America, Africa), however, and quantitative comparisons between the paleoclimate record, models, and observations remain challenging. Fingerprints of anthropogenic climate change consistent with long-term warming projections have been identified for droughts in California, the Pacific Northwest, Western North America, and the Mediterranean. In other regions (e.g., Southwest North America, Australia, Africa), however, the degree to which climate change has affected recent droughts is more uncertain. While climate change-forced declines in precipitation have been detected for the Mediterranean, in most regions, the climate change signal has manifested through warmer temperatures that have increased evaporative losses and reduced snowfall and snowpack levels, amplifying deficits in soil moisture and runoff despite uncertain precipitation changes. Over the next century, projections indicate that warming will increase drought risk and severity across much of the subtropics and mid-latitudes in both hemispheres, a consequence of regional precipitation declines and widespread warming. For many regions, however, the magnitude, robustness, and even direction of climate change-forced trends in drought depends on how drought is defined, with often large differences across indicators of precipitation, soil moisture, runoff, and vegetation health. Increasing confidence in climate change projections of drought and the associated impacts will likely depend on resolving uncertainties in processes that are currently poorly constrained (e.g., land-atmosphere interactions, terrestrial vegetation) and improved consideration of the role for human policies and management in ameliorating and adapting to changes in drought risk.

Detection and attribution↗

Ensemble Spread Behavior in Coupled Climate Models: Insights From the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 1 Large Ensemble

AbstractAssessing uncertainty in future climate projections requires understanding both internal climate variability and external forcing. For this reason, single‐model initial condition large ensembles (SMILEs) run with Earth System Models (ESMs) have recently become popular. Here we present a new 20‐member SMILE with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1‐LE), which uses a “macro” initialization strategy choosing coupled atmosphere/ocean states based on inter‐basin contrasts in ocean heat content (OHC). The E3SMv1‐LE simulates tropical climate variability well, albeit with a muted warming trend over the twentieth century due to overly strong aerosol forcing. The E3SMv1‐LE's initial climate spread is comparable to other (larger) SMILEs, suggesting that maximizing inter‐basin ocean heat contrasts may be an efficient method of generating ensemble spread. We also compare different ensemble spread across multiple SMILEs, using surface air temperature and OHC. The Community Earth system Model version 1, the only ensemble which utilizes a “micro” initialization approach perturbing only atmospheric initial conditions, yields lower spread in the first ∼30 years. The E3SMv1‐LE exhibits a relatively large spread, with some evidence for anthropogenic forcing influencing spread in the late twentieth century. However, systematic effects of differing “macro” initialization strategies are difficult to detect, possibly resulting from differing model physics or responses to external forcing. Notably, the method of standardizing results affects ensemble spread: control simulations for most models have either large background trends or multi‐centennial variability in OHC. This spurious disequlibrium behavior is a substantial roadblock to understanding both internal climate variability and its response to forcing.

Stevenson, Samantha↗

A Framework for the Cross-Sectoral Integration of Multi-Model Impact Projections: Land Use Decisions Under Climate Impacts Uncertainties

Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impactmodel setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making. Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop- and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation increases as one possible measure of agricultural intensification that could limit the expansion of cropland required in response to climate change and growing food demand. This example shows that current impact model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and must not be ignored in long-term strategic decision making

farmlands↗

Climate Conundrum: A Wet or Dry European and Northern African Climate During the Middle Miocene

Abstract End of 21st‐century hydroclimate projections suggest an expansion of subtropical dry zones, with Mediterranean and Sahel regions becoming much drier. However, paleobotanical assemblage evidence from the middle Miocene (17‐12 Ma), suggests both regions were instead humid environments. Here we show that by modifying regional sea surface temperatures (SST) in an Earth System Model (CESM1.2) simulation of the middle Miocene, the increased ocean evaporation and integrated water vapor flux overrides any drying effects associated with warming‐induced land‐surface evaporation driven by atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. These modifications markedly reduce the bias in the model‐data comparison for this period. A vegetation model (BIOME4) forced with simulated climatologies predicts both regions were dominated by mixed forest, which is largely consistent with the paleobotanical record. This study unveils the potential for wetter subtropical Mediterranean climates associated with warming, presenting an alternative scenario from future drying projections with localized SST warming governing regional climate change.

Acosta, R. P.↗

Climate projections over the Great Lakes Region: using two-way coupling of a regional climate model with a 3-D lake model

Abstract. Warming trends in the Laurentian Great Lakes and surrounding areas have been observed in recent decades, and concerns continue to rise about the pace and pattern of future climate change over the world's largest freshwater system. To date, most regional climate models used for Great Lakes projections either neglected the lake-atmosphere interactions or are only coupled with a 1-D column lake model to represent the lake hydrodynamics. This study presents a Great Lakes climate change projection that has employed the two-way coupling of a regional climate model with a 3-D lake model (GLARM) to resolve 3-D hydrodynamics essential for large lakes. Using the three carefully selected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs), we show that the GLARM ensemble average substantially reduces surface air temperature and precipitation biases of the driving GCM ensemble average in present-day climate simulations. The improvements are not only displayed from an atmospheric perspective but are also evident in the accurate simulations of lake temperature and ice coverage. We further present the GLARM projected climate change for the mid-21st century (2030–2049) and the late 21st century (2080–2099) in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Under RCP 8.5, the Great Lakes basin is projected to warm by 1.3–2.1 ∘C by the mid-21st century and 4.1–5.0 ∘C by the end of the century relative to the early century (2000–2019). Moderate mitigation (RCP 4.5) reduces the mid-century warming to 0.8–1.8 ∘C and late-century warming to 1.8–2.7 ∘C. Annual precipitation in GLARM is projected to increase for the entire basin, varying from 0 % to 13 % during the mid-century and from 9 % to 32 % during the late century in different scenarios and simulations. The most significant increases are projected in spring and fall when current precipitation is highest and a minimal increase in winter when it is lowest. Lake surface temperatures (LSTs) are also projected to increase across the five lakes in all of the simulations, but with strong seasonal and spatial variability. The most significant LST increases occur in Lakes Superior and Ontario. The strongest warming is projected in spring that persists into the summer, resulting from earlier and more intense stratification in the future. In addition, diminishing winter stratification in the future suggests the transition from dimictic lakes to monomictic lakes by the end of the century. In contrast, a relatively smaller increase in LSTs during fall and winter is projected with heat transfer to the deep water due to the strong mixing and energy required for ice melting. Correspondingly, the highest monthly mean ice cover is projected to reduce to 3 %–15 % and 10 %–40 % across the lakes by the end of the century in RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5, respectively. In the coastal regions, ice duration is projected to decrease by up to 60 d.

Xue, Pengfei (ORCID:000000025702421X)↗

Exacerbation of the 2013-2016 Pan-Caribbean Drought by Anthropogenic Warming

The Caribbean islands are expected to see more frequent and severe droughts from reduced precipitation and increased evaporative demand due to anthropogenic climate change. Between 2013 and 2016 the region experienced a "Pan-Caribbean" drought that was the most widespread event since 1950, due in part to El Niño in 2015/2016, but it is unknown whether its severity was exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change. We examine the role of recent warming on this drought, using new high-resolution self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index datasets. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic warming has accounted for ~15-17% of drought severity, and ~7% of the Pan-Caribbean drought's spatial extent. These findings strongly suggest that climate model projected anthropogenic drying in the Caribbean is already underway, with major implications for more than 43 million people living in this region.

Anthropogenic warming↗

Warming but not elevated CO 2 depletes soil organic carbon in a temperate rice paddy

In this article, global climate change has the potential to alter soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in rice paddies, because increases in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO 2 ]) both influence the primary input (i.e., net primary production, NPP) and output (i.e. heterotrophic respiration) of carbon (C). We used two types of open-top chambers representing present conditions (+0°C, +0 ppm CO 2 ) and projected climate change conditions (+2°C, +200 ppm CO 2 ) to investigate the net effect of climate change on SOC stock in rice paddy. Additional chambers with elevated temperature only (+2°C, +0 ppm CO 2 ) allowed us to quantify the individual effects of temperature and [CO 2 ]. We calculated changes in SOC stock using net ecosystem C balance (NECB) analysis (i.e., the balance between C inputs and outputs). Compared to present conditions, projected climate change did not change grain yield due to a trade-off between the effects of warming and [CO 2 ] on grain yield components. NPP during the fallow season significantly decreased under combined warming and CO 2 , as the impact of warming outweighed that of elevated [CO 2 ]. However, rice NPP remained unchanged during the cropping season. Warming plus elevated CO 2 increased SOC mineralization by 157–429 %, particularly through warming-induced soil CO 2 emission during the fallow season. Consequently, climate change conditions decreased (119–271 %) NECB values compared to present conditions, primarily through the response to warming. Our findings demonstrate that rice paddies represent positive feedback on climate change, because accelerated C release from warmed soils will override C gains from NPP under elevated CO 2 . Reducing SOC depletion in rice paddy agriculture under a changing climate therefore requires conservative soil management practices during the fallow season.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Workshop on early Mars: How warm and how wet, part 2?

In 1992 the MSATT program conducted a workshop on modeling of the Martian climate. At that workshop it became clear that a serious problem had arisen concerning the early climate of Mars. Based on the evidence for smallscale fluvial activity, the view had been widely held that early in its history Mars had a climate that was much warmer and wetter than today's. However, most plausible recent climate models have fallen far short of the warm temperatures often inferred from the geologic evidence. Moreover, recent geophysical work has suggested that early geothermal warming may also have played a significant role in allowing fluvial activity. In order to address the issue of just how warm and how wet early Mars was, a workshop was convened in July of 1993, in Breckenridge, Colorado. The results of the workshop are reported here.

Squyres, S.↗

Reciprocal transplants reveal asymmetric local adaptation of Himalayan Rhododendron approaching elevational range limit

Abstract As plant species expand their upper limits of distribution under current warming, some retain both traditional climate space and biotic environment while others encounter novel conditions. The latter is the case for Rhododendron campanulatum , a woody shrub that grows both above and below treeline at our study site in the Eastern Himalayas where a very conspicuous, stable treeline was defined by a nearly contiguous canopy of tall Abies spectabilis trees, many of which are over a century old. Prior work showed that treeline had remained static in this region while R. campanulatum expanded its elevational range limit. We tested local adaptation of R. campanulatum by performing reciprocal transplants between the species' current elevational range limit (4023 m above sea level [asl]) and just above treeline (3876 m asl). Contrary to expectation, the coldest temperatures of late winter and early mid‐spring were experienced by plants at the lower elevation: R. campanulatum at species' limit (upper site) were covered by snow for a longer period (40 more days) and escaped the coldest temperatures suffered by conspecifics at treeline (lower site). The harsher spring conditions at treeline likely explain why leaves were smaller at treeline (15.3 cm 2 ) than at species limit (21.3 cm 2 ). Contrary to results from equivalent studies in other regions, survival was reduced more by downslope than by upslope movement, again potentially due to extreme cold temperatures observed at treeline in spring. Upslope transplantation had no effect on mortality, but mortality of species limit saplings transplanted downslope was three times higher than that of residents at both sites. A general expectation is that locals should survive better than foreign transplants, but survival of locals and immigrants at our species limit site was identical. However, those species limit saplings that survived the transplant to treeline grew faster than both locals at treeline and the transplants at species limit. Overall, we found asymmetric adaptation: Compared with treeline saplings, those at species limit (147 m above treeline) were more tolerant of extremes in the growing season but less tolerant of extremes in winter and early mid‐spring, displaying local adaptation in a more complex manner than simply home advantage, and complicating predictions about impacts of future regional climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Understanding the Microphysical Control and Spatial‐Temporal Variability of Warm Rain Probability Using CloudSat and MODIS Observations

Abstract By combining measurements from MODIS and the CloudSat radar, we develop a parameterization scheme to quantify the combined microphysical controls by liquid water path (LWP) and cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) of the probability of precipitation (PoP) in marine low cloud over tropical oceans. We demonstrate that the spatial‐temporal variation of grid‐mean in‐cloud can be largely explained by the variation of the joint probability density function of LWP and CDNC in the phase space specified by the bivariate PoP (LWP and CDNC) function. Through a series of sensitivity tests guided by this understanding, we find that in the Southeastern Pacific and Atlantic the stratocumulus to cumulus transition of the is mainly due to the variation of CDNC while the annual cycle is mainly due to the variation of LWP. The results of this study provide a viable way to diagnose the root cause of warm rain problems in global climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Anthropogenic Contributions to the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave

Abstract Daily maximum temperatures during the 2021 heatwave in the Pacific Northwest United States and Canada shattered century old records. Multiple causal factors, including anthropogenic climate change, contributed to these high temperatures, challenging traditional methods of attributing human influence. We demonstrate that the observed 2021 daily maximum temperatures are far above the bounds of Generalized Extreme Value distributions fitted from historical data. Hence, confidence in Granger causal inference statements about the human influence on this heatwave is low. Alternatively, we present a more conditional hindcast attribution study using two regional models. We performed ensembles of simulations of the heatwave to investigate how the event would have changed if it had occurred without anthropogenic climate change and with future warming. We found that global warming caused a ∼0.8°C–1°C increase in heatwave temperatures. Future warming would lead to a ∼5°C increase in heatwave temperature by the end of the 21st century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Radium Inputs Into the Arctic Ocean From Rivers: A Basin‐Wide Estimate

Abstract Radium isotopes have been used to trace nutrient, carbon, and trace metal fluxes inputs from ocean margins. However, these approaches require a full accounting of radium sources to the coastal ocean including rivers. Here, we aim to quantify river radium inputs into the Arctic Ocean for the first time for 226 Ra and to refine the estimates for 228 Ra. Using new and existing data, we find that the estimated combined (dissolved plus desorbed) annual 226 Ra and 228 Ra fluxes to the Arctic Ocean are [7.0–9.4] × 10 14 dpm y −1 and [15–18] × 10 14 dpm y −1 , respectively. Of these totals, 44% and 60% of the river 226 Ra and 228 Ra, respectively are from suspended sediment desorption, which were estimated from laboratory incubation experiments. Using Ra isotope data from 20 major rivers around the world, we derived global annual 226 Ra and 228 Ra fluxes of [7.4–17] × 10 15 and [15–27] × 10 15 dpm y −1 , respectively. As climate change spurs rapid Arctic warming, hydrological cycles are intensifying and coastal ice cover and permafrost are diminishing. These river radium inputs to the Arctic Ocean will serve as a valuable baseline as we attempt to understand the changes that warming temperatures are having on fluxes of biogeochemically important elements to the Arctic coastal zone.

Bullock, Emma J.↗