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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Produced Water and Waste Heat-aided Blowdown Water Treatment: Using Chemical and Energy Synergisms for Value Creation

The project objective was to develop a cooling blowdown water (BDW) treatment process utilizing produced water (PW) and low-grade heat to maximize water reuse and saleable by-product generation while reducing chemical and energy footprints of the treatment. The proposed treatment process consists of mixing, softening, organics and suspended solids removal, reverse osmosis (RO), thermal desalination, and brine electrolysis. BDW samples collected from a local coal-fired power plant and PW samples from two shale gas production wells were used in this study. Each treatment unit was first designed and tested to quantify its treatment efficiency, and its chemical and energy requirements. In addition, a process model was developed and model simulations were conducted based on the experimental results and literature data to optimize the treatment process. A techno-economic analysis was conducted to quantify chemical and energy savings as well as production of 10-lb brine as a saleable product. With the field-collected BDW and PW samples, mixing experiments determined a volumetric mixing ratio 10:1 (BDW:PW) resulted in the best performance of multivalent ions removal and largest chemical savings for softening. Softening of the BDW/PW mixtures using alkaline chemicals (Na 2 CO 3 and NaOH) achieved 95%-100% removal of scaling-forming cations (Ca, Mg, Fe, Ba, Sr) and 60% of silicon, and 10% of total organic carbon (TOC). The mixing and softening treatments yielded an effluent with total dissolved solids (TDS) concentration of 23 g/L. Activated carbon (AC) filtration removed TOC to a low level (< 3 mg/L) and further removed remaining scale-forming divalent metals and silica from the softened water. The AC filtration resulted in a slight reduction of TDS from 23 g/L to 20 g/L, leaving behind only mostly monovalent ions (i.e., sodium and chloride) in the filtered water. These pretreatments yielded a feed water that met the criteria of the downstream reverse osmosis (RO) to prevent membrane fouling. A cross-flow RO system was used to further concentrate the TDS of the AC effluent. Various factors including TDS, pH, and applied pressure were examined and optimal conditions were determined for the co-treatment process. An integrated process consisting of mixing, softening, AC filtration and RO was used to treat a continuous flow (0.25 – 1.2 L/min, or 0.07 – 0.32 gpm) and successfully generated RO permeate as product water (TDS < 0.5 g/L) for reuse in cooling operation, and a concentrate (TDS ~ 45 g/L) to be further treated in a thermal desalination unit. These flow rates meet the FOA’s criterion of 0.01 – 1 gpm. Overall, the co-treatment of BDW/PW allowed shorter ramp-up time compared to treatment of BDW alone. It resulted in 40% and 55% savings of Na 2 CO 3(s) and NaOH, respectively, compared to treating the BDW and PW individually for the same level of softening. The co-treatment also resulted in a 29% energy saving compared to treatment of BDW only for the level of TDS concentration. A thermal desalination system was designed using CFD simulations and manufactured in the WVU Innovation Hub for further treatment of the RO concentrate to generate 10-lb brine. The system has a design flow rate of 2 gpm and has been successfully tested. A bench-scale brine electrolysis system was developed for on-site generation of chlorine/hypochlorite (Cl 2 /OCl - ) and caustic soda (NaOH) as useful chemicals for the co-treatment process. Using salt solutions (0.5 M and 1 M), the system achieved faradaic efficiencies of 93%-97% and 70%-77% for caustic soda and chlorine/hypochlorite generation, respectively. An economic analysis showed that the electricity costs for on-site generation of these chemicals were significantly lower than the chemical prices offered by suppliers. An industrial-scale process model consisting of mixing, softening, AC filtration, RO, thermal desalination, and brine electrolysis was developed using the Aspen Plus V9 in conjunction with Aspen Custom Modeler V9. The model serves as a solvable Aspen Plus model and as basis to form the costing infrastructure. In addition, techno-economic analysis considering capital, operating, and transportation costs was conducted. An optimization solution showed that produced water for mixing is still advantageous in low quantities. The optimum solution approaches a leveled cost of water (LCW) of 2 $/m 3 which becomes cost competitive with nominal water treatment prices.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using Information Automation and Human Technology Integration to Implement Integrated Operations for Nuclear

The purpose of the research effort described in this report is to develop and demonstrate an approach to the design and implementation of advanced, automated systems intended to increase operational efficiencies at nuclear power plants. In particular, we describe methods for considering human-technology integration (HTI) issues throughout the various phases of system design, test, and implementation and how these considerations help promote effective design. This research project will develop planning tools and comprehensive guidance on how HTI principles and methods, in combination with information automation technologies, can enable effective data integration and coordination for full nuclear plant modernization. Specifically, this research project will develop an approach to automate the mapping of data from plant systems and processes to application needs, thereby significantly reducing the amount of human workload currently required for the execution of these tasks. In addition to developing an automated solution as a replacement for these tasks, this research will also analyze digitalization’s effectiveness in reducing operational costs of compliance related activities. Compliance activities are estimated to account for as much as 50% of operations and maintenance (i.e., non-fuel and non-capital) costs of plant operation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Inchfab – A ultra-low-cost micro and nanofabrication platform (CRADA Final Report)

Inchfab Inc. is developing an ultra-low cost suite of micro- and nanofabrication platforms which allows greater process flexibility and short development cycles. In traditional manufacturing environments, virtually all fabrication happens on 6-12” substrates–which requires prohibitively expensive fabrication facilities (“fabs”). By scaling the substrate size down to 1-2”, Inchfab reduces the capital cost and physical footprint of a fab by two to three orders of magnitude, while still retaining a similar level of performance. Additionally, the design of the Inchfab will allow users to develop fully-customizable fabrication processes, accommodating non-traditional materials and process diversity. Ultimately, the Inchfab platform will enable innovative device designs which currently have limited possibility of being realized. This CRADA project worked on preliminary research to test the feasibility of the Inchfab platform by utilizing equipment at Berkeley Lab to evaluate test samples and characterize equipment performance.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Co-production of Clean and Low Cost Hydrogen and Other Commodity Chemicals (CRADA Final Report)

We worked on the production of hydrogen and sulfuric acid electrochemically. We did this by building an electrolyzer and performing techno-economic analysis for which we published a paper (documented above). We also performed many leaching reactions with acid similar to the acid that we would have produced. We found that it was not commercially viable to cogenerate hydrogen and sulfuric acid because the technical problems would take too long to solve under the constraints of venture capital.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation and Suitability of Using SERI QC Software for Estimating Measurement Uncertainty

SERI QC is a robust solar data quality assessment software tool that has been in continuous use for more than three decades. This report (the first of six in the Data Quality and Uncertainty Integration project) reviews and evaluates the software to determine its suitability for determining the estimated expanded measurement uncertainty of solar measurement data by including operational factors. Using redundancy incorporated in three-component (global, direct, diffuse) solar measurements, SERI QC can quantify the standard uncertainty estimates for estimating uncertainty. With minor modifications, SERI QC will provide an operational uncertainty to be used in conjunction with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory method for instrument uncertainty to provide an integrated estimate of solar measurement data sets. These modifications will capitalize on SERI QC's evaluation of data quality, including data input validation and a variety of built-in solar routines, and will further develop the utility of the software.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Liquid Hydrogen Heavy-Duty Vehicle Safety Review and Refueling Facility Design

Liquid hydrogen (LH 2 ) used as a fuel onboard a heavy-duty vehicle can result in increased storage capacity and faster refueling relative to compressed gas. However, there are concerns about hydrogen losses from boil-off, potential safety issues, gaps in codes and standards for cryogenic hydrogen fuel, and technical challenges with LH 2 systems for widespread transportation applications. A failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), a safety codes and standards review, and a design review of the onboard liquid hydrogen system for a heavy-duty vehicle identified some of these potential safety issues and gaps in the codes and standards. The FMEA identified some medium and low risk failure points of the conceptual design, and the design review identified how carefully pressure relief needs to be considered for LH 2 systems. In addition, a conceptual design for a LH 2 refueling station was developed. Rough capital costs for the refueling station design were $\$1 million$ and the layout occupied approximately 13,000 ft 2 . These results can be used to inform future designs and analyses for LH 2 heavy-duty vehicles.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigating Benefits and Challenges of Converting Retiring Coal Plants into Nuclear Plants

A coal-to-nuclear (C2N) transition means siting a nuclear reactor at the site of a recently retired coal power plant. Three overarching questions from the C2N transition guide this research: where in the United States are retired coal facilities located and what factors make a site feasible for transition; what factors of technology, cost, and project timeline drive investor economics over such a decision; and how will C2N impact local communities? The study team evaluated the siting characteristics of recently retired plants and those operating coal-fired power plant sites run by a utility or an independent power producer utilizing publicly available data to screen U.S. coal power plant sites to nuclear-feasible locations. After screening all retired coal sites to a set of 157 potential candidates and screening operating sites to a set of 237 candidates, the study team estimates that 80% of retired and operating coal power plant sites that were evaluated have the basic characteristics needed to be considered amenable to host an advanced nuclear reactor. For the recently retired plant sites evaluated, this represents a capacity potential of 64.8 GWe to be backfit at 125 sites. For the operating plant sites evaluated, this represents a capacity potential of 198.5 GWe to be backfit at 190 sites. This report evaluates a case study for the detailed impacts and potential outcomes from a C2N transition. Based on the nuclear technology choices and sizes evaluated to replace a large coal plant of 1,200 MWe generation capacity at the case study site, nuclear overnight costs of capital could decrease by 15% to 35% when compared to a greenfield construction project, through the reuse of infrastructure from the coal facility. Nuclear replacement designs can have a lower capacity size because nuclear power plants run at higher capacity factors than coal power plants. In the case study replacing coal capacity with 924 GWe of nuclear capacity, the study team found regional economic activity could increase by as much as $\$275 million$ and add 650 new, permanent jobs to the region of analysis. The evaluated site choice in the report is hypothetical for analysis purposes only and based on available data and documented assumptions. Consequently, the findings only inform at a general level. A community, investor, or other interested stakeholder can use these results to set up a detailed, in-depth analysis for a specific application of interest, such as evaluating a C2N transition of a specific coal power plant and a specific nuclear technology design. The report was subjected to independent peer reviews by experts in systems engineering and regional economic modeling to evaluate analysis and assumptions.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Safeguards by Design Projects (Final Report-FY-22)

This University Engagement project challenged engineering students at universities, that do not have Bachelor degree programs in nuclear engineering but do have research reactors and some nuclear engineering coursework, to incorporate Safeguards by Design concepts into their Senior Capstone Design Project. This University Engagement project was part of the U. S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation, Office of International Nuclear Safeguards, Next Generation Safeguards Initiative (NGSI), Human Capital Development (HCD): University Engagement Program. This program exposed university students with Mechanical Engineering majors and Nuclear Engineering minors to the concepts of international nuclear safeguards. In FY22, three teams at the University of Rhode Island and two teams at the University of Texas - Austin participated in researching, designing, building, and testing projects to support international nuclear safeguards measurements or verification. The projects involved engaging in activities at the university’s research reactors. All the projects engaged students with prototyping a design and/or tool for application at the Universities’ reactor. At the end of the course, most of the students expressed the experience was positive and they learned more about international nuclear safeguards and applying requirements than they had previously encountered. This school year the projects were further complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Both universities had limited in classes on campus, still relying on Zoom classes, and limited direct student/professor interactions. Furthermore, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) greatly restricted travel, therefore making it impossible to visit the students at the end of the semester for the review of their design projects. The final design and review meeting for the projects happened via meetings over the internet. Additionally, the teams did build and test some prototypes but could only do so in a limited capacity.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

High Energy Systems for Transforming CO 2 to Valuable Products (Final Report)

The objective of this project is to develop the Direct E-Beam Synthesis (DEBS) process that uses high-energy electron beams (E-Beam) to break chemical bonds. This allows the production of valuable chemicals, such as acetic acid, methanol, and carbon monoxide, at relatively low severity (pressure near one atmosphere and temperatures <150°C) from near-pure CO 2 captured from a pulverized coal-fired power plant and methane, imported as natural gas. Creating such valuable products will offset the cost of carbon capture and storage. Through this project, we have designed, constructed, and operated an E-Beam reactor to examine the feasibility of performing dry reforming reaction without a catalyst using only DEBS. We have verified the production of syngas with 1:1 H2:CO ratio and calculated that the energy cost for conversion is about 5.2 eV/molecule of product for dry reforming reaction which is similar to the energy cost for conversion using conventional thermochemical conversion but under significantly milder conditions (room temperature and atmospheric pressure). We have performed a technoeconomic analysis (TEA) to estimate the total capital requirement and the cost of production for a 99.4 MMSCFD syngas production plant via non-catalytic Direct E-Beam Synthesis (DEBS) technology utilizing a high-energy electron beam (E-Beam) accelerator. No assumption is made for syngas utilization downstream, and the incoming reactants are pure CO 2 from carbon capture (assumed to be at zero cost) and natural gas. The Total As-Spent Cost (TASC) was calculated to be $\$242.5$ million, resulting in a levelized cost of syngas (LCOS) of $\$175.84$/tonne (metric) at a natural gas price of $\$6.24$/MMBTU1. The cost of syngas is primarily determined by the price of natural gas. If the cost of the CO 2 feedstock is assumed to be non-zero, then the price of the CO 2 feed also heavily influences the levelized cost of syngas. The potential impact on the cost of electricity from syngas revenue is significant. Following DOE NETL’s guidance, a lifecycle analysis (LCA) was conducted to compare the cradle-to-gate life cycle emissions of GTI Energy’s novel Direct E-Beam Synthesis (DEBS) process that produces syngas via the reaction of methane and carbon dioxide to the emissions of a state-of-the-art Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) process that also produces syngas via the reaction of methane and steam. The DEBS process results in less GHG emissions than SMR (with CO product as the basis of comparison). openLCA was used for the LCA and the results show that the total global warming potential (GWP) of DEBS is 0.981 kg CO 2 e per kg CO product, while the SMR process has a global warming potential of 2.573 kg CO 2 e per kg CO product. The ratio of the GWP of the proposed product system to the comparison product system is 0.381. This percent change is 61.9% lower GWP than SMR.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Roadmap to Advance Heliostat Technologies for Concentrating Solar-Thermal Power

Heliostat-based concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) systems can offer immense potential to provide low-cost, dispatchable renewable thermal and electrical energy to help achieve 100% decarbonized energy infrastructure in the United States. Heliostats are a major capital cost technology and a performance-dominating component of state-of-the-art commercial molten salt towers and Generation 3 CSP systems. In 2021, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) launched the Heliostat Consortium (HelioCon), a five-year initiative to advance heliostat technologies. The HelioCon mission is threefold: (1) establish strategic core testing and modeling capabilities and infrastructure at national labs; (2) support heliostat technology development in relevant industries; and (3) serve as a central repository to integrate industry, academia, and other stakeholders for heliostat technology research, development, validation, and deployment. In this report, HelioCon presents a roadmapping study on advancing heliostat technologies, intended as a central reference for the whole CSP community.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Aeroelastic Modeling for Distributed Wind Turbines: March 11, 2021 - November 10, 2021

Aeroelastic modeling (AM) is the primary methodology for structural and performance assessment of any wind turbine whereby providing an understanding of the impact of design parameters on its loading and power response before witnessing it in the field. Despite these advantages, the use of AM in the Distributed Wind Technology (DWT) sector is limited, especially within the less established manufacturers. This project represents an in-depth assessment of the status of AM and its role within the Standards for the DWT industry. The study gathered input and feedback from a large number of national and international stakeholders, reviewed technical strengths and weaknesses of the current edition of the design standards, analyzed recent industry workshops' and meetings' minutes, collected publicly available AM templates, and provided an evaluation of the existing AM codes. The study achieved several goals including providing strategies for the load assessment categorization of turbines based on rotor swept area and archetype, and guidance for AM verification and validation (V&V), which includes discussions of measurement requirements and a sample test-plan useful for future V&V campaigns and design standard development. This document summarizes the different tasks conducted in the course of the project and highlights the steps required to improve the AM adoption based on a multifaceted approach that encompasses: 1) augmenting AM software capabilities, 2) publishing AM best-practices and design-basis, 3) creating new model templates, 4) providing guidance for V&V of codes and specific turbine models leveraging field testing best-practice, and 5) addressing weaknesses in the current standards. Many of the future objectives identified in this study could leverage NREL's upcoming testing campaigns of three modern distributed wind turbines. Recommendations within this study will advance the value and the ease-of-use of AM, thereby allowing the industry to better capitalize this underutilized tool resulting in a more efficient design process, an easier path to certification, and overall better and more distributed reliable wind turbine products.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Large Area Projection Sintering Technology Development (CRADA Final Report)

This CRADA was formed through support of the Innovation Crossroads program, which has been an invaluable experience for Ascend Manufacturing and our additive manufacturing technology. Without Innovation Crossroads, the research, capital and operational requirements to develop our company would have been too high and Ascend Manufacturing simply would not exist. Our patented and federally funded technology would have gone to waste. Through this CRADA, Ascend has been able to collaborate with the worlds experts in additive manufacturing to assist in developing our state of the art technology. This project assisted in developing a fully scalable 3D printing process, developed an industrial and pilot system design, assisted in the fabrication of a pilot system, allowing us to print components with materials impossible by any other 3D printing process. This work has allowed us to achieve significant follow-on funding to fully commercialize this highly capable manufacturing technology.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Front End Engineering Design of Linde-BASF Advanced Post-Combustion CO 2 Capture Technology at a Southern Company Natural Gas-Fired Power Plant (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

This document details the execution of Cooperative Agreement DE-FE0031847, “Front End Engineering Design of Linde-BASF Advanced Post-Combustion Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) Capture Technology at a Southern Company Natural Gas-Fired Power Plant” during the period of 10/1/2019 to 6/30/2022. The project was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (FECM) and managed by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). Southern Company Services, Inc. (SCS) was the prime recipient and led the project team. Other members of the project team included Linde, Inc. (Linde), Linde Engineering – Dresden (LED), and BASF. The overall goal of the project was to complete a front-end engineering design (FEED) study for installing the Linde-BASF post-combustion capture (PCC) technology at an existing domestic natural gas-fired combined cycle (NGCC) power plant within Southern Company’s portfolio of assets. The CO 2 capture plant was to be of commercial scale (at least 375 MWe) and include process units for pre-conditioning of the flue gas system, the CO 2 capture plant island, storage vessels, the CO 2 compression train, and any necessary components for integration into the NGCC plant. Mississippi Power’s Plant Daniel Unit #4 was chosen as the host site for the FEED with the target of capturing 90% of CO 2 emissions from the existing combustion turbines. The information produced by the FEED was used to develop a cost estimate of +/- 15% accuracy. Capital costs, excluding financing, are estimated at approximately $\$752$ million dollars (2021). The execution of a project based on this FEED study has an estimated duration of almost five years.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cast Components for High Temperature Concentrated Solar Power Thermal Systems

Concentrating Solar-Thermal Power (CSP) components such as piping, valves fittings are required for use at temperatures up to 800°C. These are anticipated to be made using Nickel-based alloys such as Haynes ® 230 ® , Haynes ® 282 ® , or IN ® 740H ® and can contribute significantly to the cost of a CSP Gen 3 plant. Thus, there is a significant motivation to lower the cost of materials and components so that the capital costs can be minimized. In all these cases, the cost of the component has two contributions: 1. Materials cost, and 2. Manufacturing cost. Both materials cost and manufacturing costs must be kept low to attain the lowest possible cost. Materials cost can be lowered by using materials that have the ideal combination of properties at the lowest cost. Another avenue to lower cost is chose a manufacturing process that has the potential to lower the cost. Traditionally tubes are made from billets through a wrought process and can be expensive. An alternative process to consider is the centrifugal casting process where the tube is directly fabricated from molten metal. In this case, the molten metal is poured inside a cylindrical metallic mold with an insulating layer and is spun rapidly. A wide range of sizes (diameter, wall thickness, and length) can be cast using this process. The objective of this project was to develop the process for fabricating pipes and related components using a centrifugal casting process and to measure the properties of alloys fabricated using this process.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Assessment of Non-Powered Dam Hydropower Development Opportunities in the United States

Retrofitting non-powered dams (NPDs) to add hydropower offers multiple benefits over traditional, new hydropower development. Since much of the civil works infrastructure already exists, many retrofits require minimal new construction and can leverage existing water conveyances and discharge for generation. Although NPDs vary considerably in terms of their defining characteristics, identifying similarities helps support targeted investment and find opportunities to develop solutions for common challenges. With the publication of NPD-related data in 2022 (Hansen et al. 2022b), the US Department of Energy and relevant stakeholders are equipped with key information across roughly 89,000 US NPDs. These data represent the best-available information to date and extend beyond previous assessments of potential power capacity by describing design, operational, socioeconomic, environmental aspects of NPDs (Hadjerioua et al. 2012). To capitalize on these efforts to improve breadth and depth of NPD data access, this study uses a data-driven approach to assess NPD hydropower development opportunities in the United States. To help describe project feasibility drivers for NPDs, recent NPD retrofits were reviewed to examine variability with respect to a variety of characteristics. Based on the assessment of recent retrofits and data availability, several attributes were selected to characterize the remaining NPD population: (1) owner type, (2) 30% exceedance flow (a common design flow that describes the flow that is exceeded by 30% of the flow in the record), (3) hydraulic head, and (4) maximum reservoir storage. These four characteristics were used as inputs to a statistical clustering analysis (a common technique for grouping individuals of a population based on similarities or how closely associated individuals are to one another) of a set of 2,709 NPDs with at least 100 kW potential capacity and recently retrofit dams with available data. With the large dataset of NPDs, the clusters help describe how the population breaks down into different types (i.e., how many types of dams there are and what portion of the population belongs to each cluster).

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Wind Energy Costs in Puerto Rico Through 2035

In 2019, Puerto Rico codified into law a 100% renewable electricity by 2050 target. Decision makers there need information about the costs and performance of wind energy technologies to incorporate into planning efforts for the future grid. After consulting with key technical stakeholders and accounting for unique conditions in Puerto Rico like increased hurricane risks, we customize NREL's Renewable Energy Potential model to calculate how capital expenditures, operational expenditures, net annual energy generation, and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) vary in time and space for wind energy projects around Puerto Rico. Wind turbines can add value by providing grid services through grid-forming inverters and complement solar energy generation with evening and nighttime electricity production, especially offshore. By 2035, we expect average costs of land-based and offshore wind energy in Puerto Rico to reach $\$$69/MWh (6.9 cents/kWh) and $\$$100/MWh (10 cents/kWh), respectively. While these projections do not include transmission system upgrade costs, they do suggest that low-cost, clean electricity is possible for Puerto Rico.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Techno-Economic, Feasibility, and Life Cycle Analysis of Renewable Propane (Final Report)

The Propane Education and Research Council (PERC) has engaged with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to develop information that is critical to understanding the current and future landscape for renewable propane (RP) and the value proposition for recovery of RP from existing and planned HEFA biorefineries. In summary the following outcomes are identified from this study: 1) production of incremental RP by increasing the severity of the hydroisomerization step is insignificant to the overall propane yield from a HEFA biorefinery, however production of renewable butane (or LPG 2 ) is quite significant thus suggesting alternate strategies for valorizing these fractions; 2) the value proposition for recovering RP and renewable LPG is quite strong, with capital recovery payback periods of 14 months for a small biorefinery producing 3.5 million gallons per year RP to as short as 2 months for a large biorefinery producing 87 million gallons per year RP. Paybacks for renewable LPG are as much as 50% shorter; and 3) current and projected expansions of renewable diesel will greatly expand the potential availability of RP as a by-product. Several promising new pathways are under development but will not significantly increase production of RP for the next decade.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Exceedance Probabilities and Recurrence Intervals for Extended Power Outages in the United States

Power outages cause significant economic and societal impacts. An increasing likelihood of extreme weather coupled with aging grid infrastructure is leading to a higher prevalence of extended power outages, which can leave customers without power for multiple days or even weeks. Planners at the facility, local, state, and federal levels are interested in resilience solutions to reduce the impacts of extended power outages. Resilience solutions—such as installing backup systems, integrating microgrid solutions, weatherizing buildings, and hardening distribution and transmission components—can reduce the consequences of extended power outages, but these solutions come with increased capital costs. Conducting cost-benefit analyses is important for determining which steps to take to mitigate the impact of power outages without investing in ineffective and cost-prohibitive resilience solutions. The expected benefits of resilience investments depend on the frequency of power outages of various durations, particularly extended outages lasting several hours, days, or weeks. A significant barrier to resilience planning is the lack of publicly available data on the frequency and duration of extended power outages. The absence of outage duration information severely limits the ability to conduct quantitative cost-benefit analyses of resilience investments. This report provides estimates of recurrence intervals and conditional exceedance probabilities for major power outages by U.S. region between 2015 and 2021. Additionally, we provide estimates for grid management, particularly outages caused by California’s public safety power shutoffs (PSPS), and for natural outages caused by major hurricanes. Outage recurrence intervals are the average number of years between outage events, and conditional exceedance probabilities are the likelihoods that a customer who experiences a major power outage will experience an outage exceeding a given duration. Major outage events are those that affect 10,000 or more customers, as defined by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Electric Emergency Incident and Disturbance Report, called OE-417 (DOE 2020). These results can be applied to determine the likelihood of experiencing long-duration outages, which can be integrated into cost-benefit analyses of resilience solutions and broader energy resilience studies. We developed a methodology to estimate customer outage durations for extended outage events using publicly available data on customer outages. Shorter-duration power outages are relatively common, with customers experiencing on average more than one power outage each year lasting fewer than 12 hours. An outage event lasting between 1 day and 1 week is expected to occur between once every 16 years and once every 42 years, depending on the region, with an average recurrence rate of once every 32 years across the contiguous United States.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗