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At least 937 records · Page 52
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

Sea Ice Prediction Has Easy and Difficult Years

Arctic sea ice follows an annual cycle, reaching its low point in September each year. The extent of sea ice remaining at this low point has been trending downwards for decades as the Arctic warms. Around the long-term downward trend, however, there is significant variation in the minimum extent from one year to the next. Accurate forecasts of yearly conditions would have great value to Arctic residents, shipping companies, and other stakeholders and are the subject of much current research. Since 2008 the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) (http://www.arcus.org/search-program/seaiceoutlook) organized by the Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) (http://www.arcus.org/search-program) has invited predictions of the September Arctic sea ice minimum extent, which are contributed from the Arctic research community. Individual predictions, based on a variety of approaches, are solicited in three cycles each year in early June, July, and August. (SEARCH 2013).

Years↗
NASA NTRS2017

Aerosols at the Poles: An Aerocom Phase II Multi-Model Evaluation

Atmospheric aerosols from anthropogenic and natural sources reach the polar regions through long-range transport and affect the local radiation balance. Such transport is, however, poorly constrained in present-day global climate models, and few multi-model evaluations of polar anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing exist. Here we compare the aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm from simulations with 16 global aerosol models from the AeroCom Phase II model intercomparison project with available observations at both poles. We show that the annual mean multi-model median is representative of the observations in Arctic, but that the intermodel spread is large. We also document the geographical distribution and seasonal cycle of the AOD for the individual aerosol species: black carbon (BC) from fossil fuel and biomass burning, sulfate, organic aerosols (OAs), dust, and sea-salt. For a subset of models that represent nitrate and secondary organic aerosols (SOAs), we document the role of these aerosols at high latitudes. The seasonal dependence of natural and anthropogenic aerosols differs with natural aerosols peaking in winter (seasalt) and spring (dust), whereas AOD from anthropogenic aerosols peaks in late spring and summer. The models produce a median annual mean AOD of 0.07 in the Arctic (defined here as north of 60 degrees N). The models also predict a noteworthy aerosol transport to the Antarctic (south of 70 degrees S) with a resulting AOD varying between 0.01 and 0.02. The models have estimated the shortwave anthropogenic radiative forcing contributions to the direct aerosol effect (DAE) associated with BC and OA from fossil fuel and biofuel (FF), sulfate, SOAs, nitrate, and biomass burning from BC and OA emissions combined. The Arctic modelled annual mean DAE is slightly negative (-0.12 W m(exp. -2), dominated by a positive BC FF DAE in spring and a negative sulfate DAE in summer. The Antarctic DAE is governed by BC FF. We perform sensitivity experiments with one of the AeroCom models (GISS modelE) to investigate how regional emissions of BC and sulfate and the lifetime of BC influence the Arctic and Antarctic AOD. A doubling of emissions in eastern Asia results in a 33 percent increase in Arctic AOD of BC. A doubling of the BC lifetime results in a 39 percent increase in Arctic AOD of BC. However, these radical changes still fall within the AeroCom model range.

Sand, Maria↗
NASA NTRS2018

TPSAS-NF1676L-30053-DND

The 2016-17 Arctic sea ice growth season (October-March) exhibited one of the lowest end-of-season sea ice volume and extent of any year since 1979. An analysis of MERRA2 atmospheric reanalysis data and CERES radiative flux data reveals that a record warm and moist Arctic atmosphere supported the reduced sea ice growth through two pathways. First, numerous regional episodes of increased atmospheric temperature and moisture, transported from lower latitudes, increased the cumulative energy input from downwelling longwave surface fluxes. Second, in those same episodes, the efficiency that the atmosphere cooled radiatively to space was reduced, increasing the amount of energy retained in the Arctic atmosphere and reradiated back toward the surface. Overall, the Arctic radiative cooling efficiency shows a decreasing trend since 2000. The results presented highlight the increasing importance of atmospheric forcing on sea ice variability demonstrating that episodic Arctic atmospheric rivers, regions of elevated poleward water vapor transport, and the subsequent surface energy budget response is a critical mechanism actively contributing to the evolution of Arctic sea ice.

Bradley Hegyi↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Path to Improving Simulated Properties of Low Clouds over the Beaufort Sea using Airborne In Situ Observations of Subgrid-Scale Variability

Arctic low clouds influence the evolution of the Arctic system through their effects on radiative fluxes, boundary layer mixing, stability, turbulence, humidity, and precipitation. Unfortunately, atmospheric models and retrospective analysis (reanalysis) products struggle to accurately simulate the occurrence and properties of low clouds in the Arctic. One of the main reasons for this problem are the possible unrealistic assumptions that models/reanalyses make about the subgrid-scale (SGS) variability of meteorological properties, as well as the relationship between SGS variability and grid-scale (GS) cloud properties. We utilize cloud and thermodynamic data of low level (primarily) liquid clouds collected from two aircraft campaigns conducted over the Beaufort Sea to better understand and characterize this problem. Examining data from the September 2014 Arctic Radiation-IceBridge Sea and Ice Experiment (ARISE) airborne campaign reveals that GS cloud water variability is closely related with SGS distribution of total water (i.e. water vapor + cloud water). Multiple models/reanalyses use SGS supersaturated total water (relative to GS saturation) as a threshold for partitioning available water for condensation, and indeed we find significant correlation between GS cloud water and SGS supersaturation. However, we also find that the assumption of a static threshold of 100% saturation to be unrealistic. Empirical calculations from the ARISE data show a large sensitivity of this threshold to GS relative humidity, and so a microphysical parameterization allowing the threshold to vary according to GS thermodynamic properties may result in more realistic GS cloud water values. Finally, to determine how sensitive the ARISE-derived results are to that particular campaign, we include additional data from the First International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) Regional Experiment (FIRE)–Arctic Cloud Experiment (ACE) conducted in 1998. The inclusion of the second dataset will help with demonstrating the robustness of the results and their utility in improving the representation of Arctic clouds in models and reanalyses.

J Brant Dodson↗
NASA NTRS2015

Is Ice-Rafted Sediment in a North Pole Marine Record Evidence for Perennial Sea-ice Cover?

Ice-rafted sediments of Eurasian and North American origin are found consistently in the upper part (13 Ma BP to present) of the Arctic Coring Expedition (ACEX) ocean core from the Lomonosov Ridge, near the North Pole (approximately 88 degrees N). Based on modern sea-ice drift trajectories and speeds, this has been taken as evidence of the presence of a perennial sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean from the middle Miocene onwards. However, other high latitude land and marine records indicate a long-term trend towards cooling broken by periods of extensive warming suggestive of a seasonally ice-free Arctic between the Miocene and the present. We use a coupled sea-ice slab-ocean model including sediment transport tracers to map the spatial distribution of ice-rafted deposits in the Arctic Ocean. We use 6 hourly wind forcing and surface heat fluxes for two different climates: one with a perennial sea-ice cover similar to that of the present day and one with seasonally ice-free conditions, similar to that simulated in future projections. Model results confirm that in the present-day climate, sea ice takes more than 1 year to transport sediment from all its peripheral seas to the North Pole. However, in a warmer climate, sea-ice speeds are significantly faster (for the same wind forcing) and can deposit sediments of Laptev, East Siberian and perhaps also Beaufort Sea origin at the North Pole. This is primarily because of the fact that sea-ice interactions are much weaker with a thinner ice cover and there is less resistance to drift. We conclude that the presence of ice-rafted sediment of Eurasian and North American origin at the North Pole does not imply a perennial sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean, reconciling the ACEX ocean core data with other land and marine records.

Palaeoclimate↗
NASA NTRS1985

Satellite observations of sea ice

An overview is presented of Antarctic and Arctic sea ice studies using data from the Nimbus-5 ESMR and the Nimbus-7 SMMR passive microwave radiometers. Four years (1973-1976) of ESMR data for the Antarctic Ocean define the characteristics of the seasonal cycle including regional contrasts and interannual variations. Major advances include the discovery of the Weddell polynya and the presence of substantial areas of open water in the Antarctic winter pack ice. Regional differences in sea ice extent on time-scales of about a month are shown to be associated with variations in surface-wind fields. In the Arctic, the computation of sea ice concentration is complicated by the presence of multiyear ice, but the amount of multiyear ice becomes an important measurable quantity with dual-polarized, multifrequency passive microwave sensors. Analysis of SMMR data demonstrates its advantage for studying the spatial and temporal variability of the Arctic ice cover. Large observed interannual variations in the distribution of the multiyear pack ice and the presence of significant divergent areas in the central Arctic during winter contrast markedly with the classical view of the Arctic pack ice.

Cavalieri, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Carbon cycling in high-latitude ecosystems

The carbon-rich soils and peatlands of high-latitude ecosystems could substantially influence atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and CH4 in a changing climate. Currently, cold, often waterlogged conditions retard decomposition, and release of carbon back to the atmosphere may be further slowed by physical protection of organic matter in permafrost. As a result, many northern ecosystems accumulate carbon over time (Billings et al., 1982; Poole and Miller, 1982), and although such rates of accumulation are low, thousands of years of development have left Arctic ecosystems with an extremely high soil carbon content; Schlesinger's (1984) average value of 20.4 kg C/m(sup 2) leads to a global estimate of 163 x 10(exp 15) g C. All GCM simulations of a doubled CO2 climate predict the greatest warming to occur in the polar regions (Dickinson, 1986; Mitchell, 1989). Given the extensive northern carbon pools and the strong sensitivity of decomposition processes to temperature, even a slight warming of the soil could dramatically alter the carbon balance of Arctic ecosystems. If warming accelerates rates of decomposition more than rates of primary production, a sizeable additional accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere could occur. Furthermore, CH4 produced in anaerobic soils and peatlands of the Arctic already composes a good percentage of the global efflux (Cicerone and Oremlund, 1988); if northern soils become warmer and wetter as a whole, CH4 emissions could dramatically rise. A robust understanding of the primary controls of carbon fluxes in Arctic ecosystems is critical. As a framework for a systematic examination of these controls, we discussed a conceptual model of regional-scale Arctic carbon turnover, including CH4 production, and based upon the Century soil organic matter model.

Townsend, Alan↗
NASA NTRS1994

Observations of lower-stratospheric ClONO2, HNO3, and aerosol by the UARS CLAES experiment between January 1992 and April 1993

This paper discusses simultaneous measurements of stratospheric ClONO2, HNO3, temperature, and aerosol extinction coefficient by the Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer (CLAES) on the NASA Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS), obtained over the period 9 January 1992 through 23 April 1993. The discussion concentrates on the stratosphere region near 21 km of particular interest to heterogeneously driven ozone depletion. For periods between 12 June and 1 September 1992 at latitudes poleward of about 60 deg S, when temperatures were below type I polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation thresholds throughout the lower stratosphere, CLAES observed high levels of PSCs coincident with highly depleted fields of both HNO3 and ClONO2. By 17 September, the incidence of PSCs had greatly diminished in the lower stratosphere, but both CLONO2 and HNO3 remained highly depleted. These observations are consistent with the removal of gaseous HNO3 through the formation of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) particles and the removal of ClONO2 through heterogeneous reactions on the particle surfaces. They also suggest substantial denitrification of the lower Antarctic vortex through sedimentation of PSC particles. In the Northern Hemisphere winter of 1992/93 far fewer PSCs were observed in the Arctic lower-stratosphere vortex, which had shorter periods and more localized regions of cold temperatures. Both HNO3 and ClONO2 maintained much higher levels inside the Arctic vortex than seen in the Antarctic throughout the winter/spring period. Following 28 February 1993 when Arctic vortex temperatures rose above 195 K, ClONO2 was observed in large quantities (greater than 2.1 ppbv near 21 km) inside the vortex. The persistence of relatively high levels of HNO3 inside the Arctic spring vortex compared with the low levels seen in the Antarctic spring vortex suggest a much lower level of denitrification in the Arctic.

Roche, A. E.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Polar stratospheric cloud climatology based on Stratospheric Aerosol Measurement II observations from 1978 to 1989

The probability of polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) occurrence in the Antarctic and Arctic has been estimated using Stratospheric Aerosol Measurement (SAM) II aerosol extinction data from 1978 to 1989. Antarctic PSCs are typically observed by SAM II from mid-May to early November, with a maximum zonal average probability of about 0.6 at 18-20 km in August. The typical Arctic PSC season extends only from late November to early March, with a peak zonal average probability of about 0.1 in early February at 20-22 km. There is considerable year-to-year variability in Arctic PSC sightings because of changes in the dynamics of the northern polar vortex. Year-to-year variability in Antarctic sightings is most prominent in the number of late season clouds. Maximum PSC sighting probabilities in both polar regions occur in the region from 90 deg W through the Greenwich meridian to 90 deg E, where temperatures are coldest on average. Arctic sighting probabilities approach zero outside this region, but clouds have been sighted in the Antarctic at all longitudes during most months. Inferred PSC formation temperatures remain constant throughout the Arctic winter and are similar to those in early Antarctic winter. PSC formation temperatures in the Antarctic drop markedly in the 15 to 20-km region by September, a pattern consistent with the irreversible loss of HNO3 and H2O vapor in sedimenting PSC particles.

Poole, Lamont R.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Interhemispheric differences in polar stratospheric HNO3, H2O, ClO, and O3

Simultaneous global measurements of nitric acid (HNO3), water (H2O), chlorine monoxide (ClO), and ozone (O3) in the stratosphere have been obtained over complete annual cycles in both hemispheres by the Microwave Limb Sounder on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite. A sizeable decrease in gas-phase HNO3 was evident in the lower stratospheric vortex over Antarctica by early June 1992, followed by a significant reduction in gas-phase H2O after mid-July. By mid-August, near the time of peak ClO, abundances of gas-phase HNO3 and H2O were extremely low. The concentrations of HNO3 and H2O over Antarctica remained depressed into November, well after temperatures in the lower stratosphere had risen above the evaporation threshold for polar stratospheric clouds, implying that denitrification and dehydration had occurred. No large decreases in either gas-phase HNO3 or H2O were observed in the 1992-1993 Arctic winter vortex. Although ClO was enhanced over the Arctic as it was over the Antarctic, Arctic O3 depletion was substantially smaller than that over Antarctica. A major factor currently limiting the formation of an Arctic ozone 'hole' is the lack of denitrification in the northern polar vortex, but future cooling of the lower stratosphere could lead to more intense denitrification and consequently larger losses of Arctic ozone.

Santee, M. L.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Icehouse Effect: A Polar Autumn and Winter Cooling Trend

The icehouse effect is a hypothesized polar climate trend toward cooling (or lack of warming) in response to greenhouse warming of adjacent lower latitudes. When greenhouse warmed air from lower latitudes moves over ice and snow, it generates a stronger, more stable, cappino, inversion than in a parallel case without greenhouse warming. Because the degree of decoupling between vertically adjacent air masses is directly dependent on the strength of the inversion, the capping inversion acts somewhat analogously to the walls and roof of the icehouse of generations past. What is inside the icehouse, namely the cold polar atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) air, is preserved by the "insulation" or decoupling, provided by the warm air aloft. Observations over the Arctic Ocean have shown an unexpected lack of any detectable surface warming trend over the past 40 years. This finding strongly contradicts climate model predictions that polar regions should show the strongest effect of greenhouse warming. It also stands in contrast to the consensus reached by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), that human caused greenhouse warming is now detectable globally. One might ask: Are these Arctic observations wrong? Or, if right, is there a plausible physical explanation for them? The published observations mentioned above used about 50,000 soundings over the Arctic Ocean. Here I present a novel analysis of ALL available Arctic rawinsonde data north of 65N--a total of more than 1.1 million soundings. The analysis confirms the previously published result: There is indeed a slight climate-cooling trend in the vast majority of the data. Importantly, there are also select conditions (very strong and very weak stability of the ABL) which show a consistent, strong Arctic warming trend. It is the juxtaposition of these warming and cooling trends which defines a unique "icehouse signature" for which an explanation can be sought.

Wetzel, Peter J.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Satellite-Derived Cloud and Surface Characteristics During FIRE-ACE

Advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) products calculated for the western Arctic for April-July 1998 are used to investigate spatial, temporal, and regional patterns and variability in energy budget parameters associated with ocean- ice-atmosphere interactions over the Arctic Ocean during the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) project and the First ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) Regional Experiment - Arctic Cloud Experiment (FIRE-ACE). The AVHRR-derived parameters include cloud fraction, clear-sky and all-sky skin temperature and broadband albedo, upwelling and downwelling shortwave and longwave radiation, cloud top pressure and temperature, and cloud optical depth. The remotely sensed products generally agree well with field observations at the SHEBA site, which in turn is shown to be representative of a surrounding region comparable in size to a climate-model grid cell. Time series of products for other locations in the western Arctic illustrate the magnitude of spatial variability during the study period and provide spatial and temporal detail useful for studying regional processes. The data illustrate the progression of reduction in cloud cover, albedo decrease, and the considerable heating of the open ocean associated with the anomalous decrease in sea ice cover in the eastern Beaufort Sea that began in late spring. Above-freezing temperatures are also recorded within the ice pack, suggesting warming of the open water areas within the ice cover.

Maslanik, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS2001

The Continuation of Cloud Statistics for NASA Climate Change Studies

The weather systems, cyclones, and anticyclones, along with air trajectories and cloud forms, are compared to past studies of the Arctic to assess compatibility of the four month study of the Arctic Cloud Experiment flights of the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE/ACE) with past climatologies. The frequency and movement of cyclones (lows) and anticyclones (highs) followed the general eastward and northeastward directions indicated by past studies. Most cyclones (lows) came from eastern Siberia and the Bering Sea to the south and moved north across the Bering Straight or Alaska into the Arctic Ocean. They generally weakened in central pressure as they moved poleward. Anticyclones (highs) were most common in the eastern Beaufort Sea near Canada in June and July as predicted from previous studies. However, many cyclones and anticyclones moved in westward directions which is rare in other latitudes. Erratic changes in shape and intensity on a daily basis also were observed. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) analysis generally reflected the Surface Heat Budget in the Arctic (SHEBA) Ship World Meteorological Organization (WMO) observations which it used. However, NCEP temperatures were biased warm by 1.0 to 1.5 C in April and early May. In July when the surface temperature were at the freezing/thawing point, the NCEP analysis changed to a cold bias of -1.0 C. Dew points had smaller biases except for July where they were biased cold by -1.4 C. Wind speeds had a -2 m/s low bias for the six windiest days. Surface barometric pressures had consistently low biases from -1.2 to -2.8 hPa in all four months. Air parcel historical trajectories were mainly from the south or from local anticyclonic gyres in the Beaufort Sea. Most air came to the SHEBA Ship from the north Pacific Ocean or from Alaska and Canada and occasionally from eastern Siberia. Very few trajectories traced back across the pole to Europe and Central Asia. Cloud cover was high, as expected, from 69-86% of the time. Satellite data also indicate frequent stratus, altostratus, and cirrus clouds (occurring 61% of the time) above the expected boundary layer fog and Arctic stratus clouds.

Wylie, Donald P.↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Effect of Climate Change on Ozone Depletion through Changes in Stratospheric Water Vapour

Several studies have predicted substantial increases in Arctic ozone depletion due to the stratospheric cooling induced by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. But climate change may additionally influence Arctic ozone depletion through changes in the water vapor cycle. Here we investigate this possibility by combining predictions of tropical tropopause temperatures from a general circulation model with results from a one-dimensional radiative convective model, recent progress in understanding the stratospheric water vapor budget, modelling of heterogeneous reaction rates and the results of a general circulation model on the radiative effect of increased water vapor. Whereas most of the stratosphere will cool as greenhouse-gas concentrations increase, the tropical tropopause may become warmer, resulting in an increase of the mean saturation mixing ratio of water vapor and hence an increased transport of water vapor from the troposphere to the stratosphere. Stratospheric water vapor concentration in the polar regions determines both the critical temperature below which heterogeneous reactions on cold aerosols become important (the mechanism driving enhanced ozone depletion) and the temperature of the Arctic vortex itself. Our results indicate that ozone loss in the later winter and spring Arctic vortex depends critically on water vapor variations which are forced by sea surface temperature changes in the tropics. This potentially important effect has not been taken into account in previous scenarios of Arctic ozone loss under climate change conditions.

Kirk-Davidoff, Daniel B.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Operator's Manual for SHEBA Powered Tether Balloon System

The Surface Heat and Energy Budget of the Arctic (SHEBA) was an intensive field project which took place in the Arctic Ocean from October 1997 through October 1998. Its purpose was to measure as many facets of the Arctic environment as possible so that we would be able to better understand the interaction between the ice, atmosphere, and ocean and their interactions with global climate. One aspect of the atmospheric field component was launching tethered balloons to monitor the profiles of temperature, wind, pressure, and humidity, as well as examine the vertical structure of cloud droplet sizes and distributions. The tethered balloon that we used was one specially designed for use in freezing climates by SPEC Corporation in Boulder, Colorado. A special winch that was able to withstand Arctic temperature and weather became necessary when the testing of simple winch systems used in warmer climates failed under these extreme conditions. The purpose of this manual is to acquaint any new user to the powered tethered balloon system deployed at the The Surface Heat and Energy Budget of the Arctic (SHEBA ice camp. It includes a description of the preparations necessary to get ready for a launch, the mechanics of the actual launch, and an account of the proper procedure for taking down the equipment when finished. It will also include tips on how to minimize potential equipment failures, some trouble shooting, and some safety ideas. This manual is designed so that new operators can use the system with minimal previous training. At the end of this manual, the reader will find a quick checklist.

Lappen, Cara-Lyn↗
NASA NTRS2002

Simulating Snow Over Sea Ice In Climate Models

We have evaluated two methods of simulating the seasonal cycle of snow over sea ice in and around the Arctic: The NCAR global climate model CCM3, with its standard snow hydrology, and the snow pack model SNTHERM, forced with hourly atmospheric output from CCM3. A new dataset providing dates for the onset of snow melt over Arctic sea ice provides a means for assessing basin-wide how well the models simulate melt onset, but contains no information on how long it then takes for all the snow to melt. Use of data from the SHEBA site provides very detailed information on the behavior of the snow before and during the melt season, but only for a very limited area. Russian drift data provide climatological data on the seasonal cycle of snow water equivalent and snow density, over multi-year sea ice in the central Arctic basin. These datasets are used to compare the two modeling methods, and to see if use of the more physically-realistic SNTHERM provides any significant improvements. Conclusions obtained so far include: 1. Both CCM3 and CCM3/SNTHERM do a good job overall of matching the onset of snow melt dataset; although CCM3/SNTHERM consistently trends to underestimate the date and CCM3 to overestimate it. 2. SHEBA and ice drift data for the Arctic show that CCM3/ SNTHERM does a better job than CCM3 at simulating the total melt period. 3. Ice drift snow density and accumulation data suggest that while providing superior results, CCM3/SNTHERM may still suffer from overly vigorous melting. 4. Both the large-scale atmospheric forcing and snow pack physical processes are important in proper simulation of the snow seasonal cycle. Ongoing work includes further diagnosis of CCM3/SNTHERM, use of more observational datasets, especially from marginal seas in the pan-Arctic, and full coupling of SNTHERM into CCM3 (work to date has all been off-line simulations).

Arnold, James E.↗
NASA NTRS2002

SEARCH Workshop on Large-Scale Atmosphere/Cryosphere Observations

The purpose of the workshop held in Seattle during 27-29 November 2001 was to review existing land, sea ice, and atmospheric observations and the prospect for an Arctic System Reanalysis, through white papers, invited speakers, and panels. A major task for SEARCH was to determine how existing observation systems can be best used and enhanced to understand and anticipate the course of the ongoing changes in the Arctic. The primary workshop conclusion is that there is no cohesion among various Arctic disciplines and data types to form a complete observation set of Arctic change; a second workshop conclusion is that present data sets are vastly underutilized in understanding Arctic change; a third conclusion is that a distributed observing system must accommodate a wide range of spatial patterns of variability.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2015

Sea Ice Outlook for September 2015 June Report - NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

The recent decline in perennial sea ice cover in Arctic Ocean is a topic of enormous scientific interest and has relevance to a broad variety of scientific disciplines and human endeavors including biological and physical oceanography, atmospheric circulation, high latitude ecology, the sustainability of indigenous communities, commerce, and resource exploration. A credible seasonal prediction of sea ice extent would be of substantial use to many of the stakeholders in these fields and may also reveal details on the physical processes that result in the current trends in the ice cover. Forecasts are challenging due in part to limitations in the polar observing network, the large variability in the climate system, and an incomplete knowledge of the significant processes. Nevertheless it is a useful to understand the current capabilities of high latitude seasonal forecasting and identify areas where such forecasts may be improved. Since 2008 the Arctic Research Consortium of the United States (ARCUS) has conducted a seasonal forecasting contest in which the average Arctic sea ice extent for the month of September (the month of the annual extent minimum) is predicted from available forecasts in early June, July, and August. The competition is known as the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) but recently came under the auspices of the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN), and multi-agency funded project to evaluate the SIO. The forecasts are submitted based on modeling, statistical, and heuristic methods. Forecasts of Arctic sea ice extent from the GMAO are derived from seasonal prediction system of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS 5) coupled atmosphere and ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). The projections are made in order to understand the relative skill of the forecasting system and to determine the effects of future improvements to the system. This years prediction is for a September average Arctic ice extent of 5.030.41 million km2.

SIPN↗