Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “applied statistics”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 937 records · Page 52

Characterization of multi-regime reaction zones in a piloted inhomogeneous jet flame with local extinction

In this study, gradient free regime identification (GFRI) is applied to 1D Raman/Rayleigh/LIF measurements of temperature and major species from the intermediate velocity case of the Sydney piloted inhomogeneous jet flame series to better understand the structure of reaction zones and the downstream evolution of multi-regime characteristics. The GFRI approach allows local reaction zones to be detected and characterized as premixed, dominantly premixed, multi-regime, dominantly non-premixed, or non-premixed flame structures, based on flame markers (mixture fraction, chemical mode, and heat release rate) derived from the experimental data. The statistics of chemical mode zero-crossings, which mark premixed reaction zones, and the relative populations of flame structures are shown to be sensitive to the state of mixing in the near field of the flame and to the level of local extinction farther downstream. Multi-regime structures, where premixed and non-premixed reaction zones occur in close proximity and both contribute to overall heat release, account for nearly half the total population at streamwise locations within the first several jet diameters. There is a rapid transition within the near field whereby the relative population of non-premixed and dominantly non-premixed structures grows from 0.05 to nearly 0.5, and the population of premixed and dominantly premixed structures decreases correspondingly as fluid entering the reaction zone becomes progressively fuel-rich. Local extinction and re-ignition bring a resurgence in premixed-type structures, many of which occur at fuel-lean conditions. There are also modest populations of multi-regime structures, having chemical mode zero-crossings at lean conditions, which would not exist in a fully burning jet flame.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Evaluating EAMv2 Simulated High Latitude Clouds Using ARM Measurements in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres

Here, this study evaluates high latitude stratiform mixed-phase clouds (SMPC) in the atmosphere model of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (EAMv2) by utilizing one-year-long ground-based remote sensing measurements from the Atmospheric Radiation and Measurement (ARM) program. A nudging approach is applied to model simulations for a constrained comparison with the ARM observations. Observed and modeled SMPCs are sampled and collocated to address the difference in data resolution, so that we can consistently evaluate their macrophysical properties at the North Slope of Alaska (NSA) site in the Arctic and the McMurdo (AWR) site in the Antarctic. We found that EAMv2 overestimates SMPC frequency of occurrence at both sites. However, the model captures the observed larger cloud frequency of occurrence at the NSA site. For collocated SMPCs, the annual statistics of observed cloud macrophysics are generally reproduced at the NSA site, while at the AWR site, there are larger biases. Compared to the AWR site, the lower cloud top and cloud base and the warmer cloud top temperature observed at NSA are well simulated. On the other hand, simulated cloud phase is substantially biased. The model largely overestimates liquid water path, and the ice water path is underestimated at NSA, but at AWR, the liquid water path is frequently underestimated due to the dominance of snow in Antarctic SMPCs. As a result, the observed hemispheric difference in cloud phase partitioning is misrepresented in EAMv2. This study implies that additional model development is needed for high latitude mixed-phase clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Molecular dynamics simulation of metallic Al–Ce liquids using a neural network machine learning interatomic potential

Al-rich Al-Ce alloys have the possibility of replacing heavier steel and cast-irons for use in high-temperature applications. Knowledge about the structures and properties of Al-Ce alloys at liquid state is vital for optimizing the manufacture process to produce desired allows. However, reliable molecular dynamics simulation of Al-Ce alloy systems remains a great challenge due to the lack of accurate Al-Ce interatomic potential. In this work, an artificial neural network (ANN) deep machine learning (ML) method is used to develop a reliable interatomic potential for Al-Ce alloy. Ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulation data on Al-Ce liquid with small unit cell (~200 atoms) and on the known Al-Ce crystalline compounds are collected to train the interatomic potential using ANN-ML. The obtained ANN-ML model reproduces well the energies, forces, and atomic structure of Al 90 Ce 10 liquid and crystalline phases of Al-Ce compounds in comparison with ab initio results. The developed ANN-ML potential is applied in molecular dynamics simulations to study the structures and properties of metallic Al 90 Ce 10 liquid, which would provide useful insight for guiding experimental process to produce desired Al-Ce allows.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Power Outage Data Informed Resilience Assessment Framework

Catastrophic impacts to power systems due to disruptive events have increased significantly during the last decade. These events highlight the need to develop approaches to assess the resilience of power systems against extreme events. However, the availability of data that capture power system performance during and after disruptive events is scarce. This paper proposes an assessment framework to evaluate the performance aspects of the grid system during extreme outage events using the Environment for Analysis of Geo-Located Energy Information (EAGLE-I) data. EAGLE-I includes information related to the number of impacted customers, duration, and location of power outages in the United States. Statistical analyses were conducted to extract resilient-based outage data and derive probability distribution functions of their impact and recovery characteristics. A list of extreme events is identified based on few predetermined threshold values. Metrics from other power outage assessments were used to measure the characteristics of each event, including impact rate and duration, recovery rate and duration, and impact level. A probability distribution function is obtained for each metric. The obtained results provide a representation of national grid performance during extreme events, which can be applied as a framework to evaluate various resilience enhancement techniques.

EAGLE-I↗

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Dispatch Schedule Generation for Demand Flexibility Measures

This supplemental document describes the methodology used for determining the dispatch timing of various EUSS demand flexibility measures. Demand flexibility measures are designed to reduce/dispatch electricity demand in buildings during especially beneficial/critical times. The method used in this work utilizes predictions of building loads to generate a schedule that reflects the periods when the building's daily peak load occurs to support decision making in demand flexibility measures. The dispatch schedule generation method described in this document creates an hourly schedule that includes a load dispatch (peak) window for each day for a whole year based on load prediction, with options using different prediction methods: perfect prediction, bin-sampling method, fixed schedule, and outdoor air temperature (OAT)-based prediction method. The perfect prediction method performs a simulation to obtain the annual load profile as predicted load, representing the scenario of perfect load prediction. The bin-sampling method (1) categorizes days into representative bins by temperature characteristics, (2) performs simulations on sample days from each of those bins to create representative (or predicted) load, and (3) assigns representative loads for all days in a year based on the bin categorization. The fixed schedule method defines uniform start and end time of peak window with assumed fixed daily peak time, for all days in a season or a year. The OAT-based prediction method uses the statistics of OAT (minimum and maximum) as the indicators of peak load, with specified delay response time from building loads to temperature. Given the load prediction, daily peak periods are determined as a time window with specified length in each day that include the predicted daily peak load and with a secondary rule such as maximizing energy saving potential. The dispatch schedule generation method is not a standalone measure and is intended to be combined with other demand flexibility measures that could leverage the peak schedule and apply demand controls on specific systems or devices for demand response, such as measures described in "Measure Documentation - Thermostat Control for Load Shedding" and "Measure Documentation - Thermostat Control for Load Shifting".

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Maintaining Microstructure – The Path to Successful Technology Maturation in Fluidized Systems

Scaling circulating fluidized bed risers has been a point of contention for nearly a century. There have been numerous attempts to define various methodologies. These have all fallen short of providing a robust approach, primarily due to a lack of maintaining microstructure dynamics – a key factor in maintain interphase heat and mass transfer. Recent work by the author put forward an approach based up maintaining dynamic similarity at different scales by ensuring that the microstructure remained similar by maintaining statistical and chaotic parameters across the scale. That work relied on a dimensionless regime map in which the x-axis was defined by the ratio of the solids flux to the saturation carrying capacity. This latter property was only good within the range of the data and it became evident that extrapolation beyond the limits of the data could induce unrealistic conditions. Therefore, literature was reviewed to develop a better correlation for the saturation carrying capacity. In doing so, a critical diameter concept was developed and applied to the correlations for both Geldart Group A and B materials. The critical diameter for Geldart Group A and B materials is 0.2 m and 0.3 m, respectively. The paper then gives examples on how to use the scaling approach to maintain dynamic similarity across the scales.<br>

Breault, Ronald↗

Scaling CFB risers: Beyond the data using microstructure similarity

Scaling circulating fluidized bed risers has been a point of contention for nearly a century. There have been numerous attempts to define various methodologies. These have all fallen short of providing a robust approach, primarily due to a lack of maintaining microstructure dynamics – a key factor in maintaining interphase heat and mass transfer. Recent work by the author put forward an approach based upon preserving dynamic similarity at different scales by ensuring that the microstructure remained similar by maintaining statistical and chaotic parameters across the scale. That work relied on a dimensionless regime map in which the x-axis was defined by the ratio of the solids flux to the saturation carrying capacity. This latter property was only good within the range of the data, and it became evident that extrapolation beyond the limits of the data could induce unrealistic conditions. Therefore, literature was reviewed to develop a better correlation for the saturation carrying capacity. In doing so, a critical riser diameter concept was developed and applied to the correlations for both Geldart Group A and B materials. The critical diameter for Geldart Group A and B materials is 0.2 m and 0.3 m, respectively. Here the paper then gives three examples on how to use the scaling approach to maintain dynamic similarity across the scales.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Visual HPC Workflows for the Analysis of System Dynamics Models

Visual analytics supported by high performance computing (HPC) accelerates and enhances the discovery, exploration, and analysis of causal patterns in complex system dynamics (SD) models. We present a suite of visualization-assisted ensemble-based techniques for hypothesis generation and testing, and for sensitivity analysis. By employing HPC to provide parallel, on-demand simulation of SD models, one can “steer” an ensemble of simulated scenarios in real time as one first formulates and then informally tests those hypotheses: this provides rapid feedback for analysts to refine their understanding of the causal relationships emergent from a model. Such understandings can be followed and augmented by rigorous application of statistical methods, namely global variance-based sensitivity analysis, Monte-Carlo filtering, adaptive regional sensitivity analysis, and self-organized maps: here timely computation relies on HPC, while effective presentation emphasizes high-dimensional multivariate data visualization. Immersive visualization in virtual 3D environments provides an excellent adjunct to the traditional 2D graphics typically used for SD models, as it generates an embodied understanding of model behavior and facilitates an active, collaborative critique of model structure and output. Finally, we summarize prospects for HPC-enabled visual analytics applied to SD modeling.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Generating Older Adult Multimorbidity Trajectories Using Various Comorbidity Indices and Calculation Methods

Older adult multimorbidity trajectories are helpful for understanding the current and future health patterns of aging populations. The construction of multimorbidity trajectories from comorbidity index scores will help inform public health and clinical interventions targeting those individuals that are on unhealthy trajectories. Investigators have used many different techniques when creating multimorbidity trajectories in prior literature, and no standard way has emerged. This study compares and contrasts multimorbidity trajectories constructed from various methods. We describe the difference between aging trajectories constructed with the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and Elixhauser Comorbidity Index (ECI). We also explore the differences between acute (single year) and chronic (cumulative) derivations of CCI and ECI scores. Social determinants of health can affect disease burden over time; thus, our models include income, race/ethnicity, and sex differences. We use group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) to estimate multimorbidity trajectories for 86,909 individuals aged 66–75 in 1992 using Medicare claims data collected over the following 21 years. We identify low-chronic disease and high-chronic disease trajectories in all 8 generated trajectory models. Additionally, all 8 models satisfied prior established statistical diagnostic criteria for well-performing GBTM models. Clinicians may use these trajectories to identify patients on an unhealthy path and prompt a possible intervention that may shift the patient to a healthier trajectory.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Free-energy estimates from nonequilibrium trajectories under varying-temperature protocols

The Jarzynski equality allows the calculation of free-energy differences using values of work measured from nonequilibrium trajectories. The number of trajectories required to accurately estimate free-energy differences in this way grows sharply with the size of work fluctuations, motivating the search for protocols that perform desired transformations with minimum work. However, protocols of this nature can involve varying temperature, to which the Jarzynski equality does not apply. Here, we derive a variant of the Jarzynski equality that applies to varying-temperature protocols, and show that it can have better convergence properties than the standard version of the equality. We derive this modified equality and the associated fluctuation relation within the framework of Markovian stochastic dynamics, complementing related derivations done within the framework of Hamiltonian dynamics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Fatigue of laser powder bed fusion processed 17-4 stainless steel using prior process exposed powder feedstock

The rapid pace of development seen in the metal additive manufacturing (AM) process of laser powder-bed fusion (LPBF) requires in-step advances in processes qualification to enable full-scale adoption. This particularly applies to quantifying how powder feedstock conditions impact end-component quality. Here this study examines how in-machine 17-4 stainless steel powder feedstocks are affected by prior LPBF processes, and how these effects impact subsequent builds. Examinations of powder morphology, chemistry, flowability, and rheology were conducted to characterize the powder conditions. The resultant effects of powder feedstock condition on produced component quasi-static tensile and high-cycle fatigue properties were analyzed. Fatigue life was analyzed using a reliability modeling approach that enabled a robust statistical comparison of life. Powder characteristics were found to evolve with powder exposure to prior LPBF processes, particularly in the extremes of powder size distribution and measures of bulk flow. No significant effects of these changes on tensile properties were observed. Reliability modeling methods, including the lognormal and Weibull distributions as well as the empirical survival function, are shown to be effective tools for modeling fatigue variability in LPBF manufactured components. Through these tools, fatigue life was found to be invariant with changes in powder condition.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Surface smoothing for laser powder-bed Ti-6Al-4V by a transient liquid phase

Surface roughness is the primary driver of fatigue for additively manufactured metals. To address surface roughness, this work introduces a new method to smooth features beyond line-of-sight without material removal. The method applies a coating that triggers local surface remelting by activating a eutectic reaction during heat treatment. The associated liquid phase then wets and isothermally solidifies into a smoother surface. For Ti-6Al-4V fabricated with laser powder bed fusion, samples with and without TLP smoothing (using a Cu coating) were characterized with a suite of techniques, including mechanical testing, electron backscatter diffraction, synchrotron X-ray tomography, and fractography. TLP smoothing reduced surface roughness by 80% and amplified compressive residual stress at the surface by about 50%. With statistically equivalent virtual microstructures, crystal plasticity scrutinized the roles of phases, porosity, and surface roughness. Although the tensile strain-to-failure was reduced to 1% strain, the TLP smoothing process increased high-cycle fatigue strength by about 20% compared to control samples, pointing to future opportunities to optimize the new process through various coating compositions and heat treatment schedules. Overall, this work establishes a new paradigm for treating surfaces of materials for smoothness and compressive residual stress.

Additive manufacturing↗

Efficient Super-Resolution of Near-Surface Climate Modeling Using the Fourier Neural Operator

Downscaling methods are critical in efficiently generating high-resolution atmospheric data. However, state-of-the-art statistical or dynamical downscaling techniques either suffer from the high computational cost of running a physical model or require high-resolution data to develop a downscaling tool. Here, we demonstrate a recently proposed zero-shot super-resolution method, the Fourier neural operator (FNO), to efficiently perform downscaling without the need for high-resolution data. Because the FNO learns dynamics in Fourier space, FNO is a resolution-invariant emulator; it can be trained at a coarse resolution and produces emulation at any high resolution. We applied FNO to downscale a 4-km resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulation of near-surface heat-related variables over the Great Lakes region. The FNO is driven by the atmospheric forcings, and topographic features used in the WRF model at the same resolution. We incorporated a physics-constrained loss in FNO by using the Clausius-Clapeyron relation to better constrain the relations among the emulated states. Trained on merely 600 WRF snapshots at 4-km resolution, the FNO shows comparable performance with a widely used convolutional network, U-Net, achieving averaged modified Kling-Gupta Efficiency of 0.88 and 0.94 on the test dataset for temperature and pressure, respectively. We then employed the FNO to produce 1-km emulations to reproduce the fine climate features. Further, by taking the WRF simulation as ground truth, we show consistent performances at the two resolutions, suggesting the reliability of FNO in producing high-resolution dynamics. Our study demonstrates the potential of using FNO for zero-shot super-resolution in generating first-order estimation on atmospheric modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Maximum Likelihood Spectrum Decomposition for Isotope Identification and Quantification

A spectral decomposition method has been implemented to identify and quantify isotopic source terms in high-resolution gamma-ray spectroscopy in static geometry and shielding scenarios. Monte Carlo simulations were used to build the response matrix of a shielded high-purity germanium detector monitoring an effluent stream with a Marinelli configuration. The decomposition technique was applied to a series of calibration spectra taken with the detector using a multi-nuclide standard. These results are compared with decay-corrected values from the calibration certificate. For most nuclei in the standard ( 241 Am, 109 Cd, 137 Cs, and 60 Co), the deviations from the certificate values were generally no more than 6% with a few outliers as high as 10%. Furthermore, for 57 Co, the radionuclide with the lowest activity, the deviations from the standard reached as high as 25%, driven by the meager statistics in the calibration spectra. In addition, a complete treatment of error propagation for the technique is presented.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Chiral edge state control of thermoelectric effects

Thermoelectric responses in two-dimensional electron gases subjected to magnetic fields have the potential to provide unique information about quasiparticle statistics. In this study, we show that chiral edge states play a key role in thermoelectric Hall bar measurements by completely controlling the direction of the internal thermal gradient. To this end, we perform measurements of the magnetothermoelectric responses of cadmium arsenide quantum wells. The magnetothermoelectric responses in the quantum Hall regime agree with theoretical predictions if one considers the role of chiral edge states, which flow in opposite directions on either side of the Hall bar and establish an internal temperature gradient that is perpendicular to the externally applied thermal gradient. We show that the results are self-consistent within this picture under different measurement conditions. We discuss potential applications of the findings, such as in nanoscale control of local temperature gradients and thermoelectric effects along with the characterization of other topological systems with chiral edges states.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Optical potential uncertainties on exclusive tens-of-MeV Ar cross sections

Large liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) neutrino detectors, such as those planned for the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE), show considerable promise as a platform for next-generation measurements of supernova neutrinos. Thanks to the neutron excess in $^{40}$Ar as well as the detailed tracking possible with LArTPCs, these detectors are expected to be uniquely capable of measuring supernova electron neutrinos with high statistics and minimal backgrounds. However, these technological advantages come at the price of complexities in data interpretation; reconstruction of the incident energies of supernova neutrinos in a future LArTPC-based analysis will be subject to a variety of systematic uncertainties related to nuclear interaction modeling. In this talk, we present a study of a subset of these uncertainties as implemented in the MARLEY event generator used by DUNE and other LArTPC neutrino experiments. Variations to the optical potential used in the MARLEY nuclear de-excitation model are applied to the calculation of exclusive tens-of-MeV neutrino-nucleus cross sections for the first time, and the impact on observables of interest for supernova neutrino detection is examined. We also discuss prospects for quantifying other sources of uncertainty on the MARLEY neutrino interaction model.

El-Haj, Luca Abu↗

Stochastic room temperature creep of 316 L stainless steel

The creep behavior of 316 L stainless steel at room temperature was evaluated as a function of time and applied stress using a new high-throughput approach. Several common creep models were evaluated against the observations, leading to deeper analysis of a stress-dependent modified logarithmic creep model. Within this model, multiple sources of uncertainty were compared. Aleatoric stochastic variation between samples under nominally identical conditions was identified as the primary contributor to uncertainty in creep response. Under any particular set of conditions, the sample-to-sample variability in creep strain was as high as a factor of two, highlighting the engineering importance of characterizing large statistical datasets. The model's extrapolation capabilities were assessed by comparing predictions derived from calibration on partial, shorter-duration subsets of the data. In conclusion, these findings underscore the importance of accounting for stochastic effects in predictive modeling of aging phenomena.

High-throughput↗

The Delplot kinetic method applied to systems with adsorbates: Hydrodeoxygenation of benzofuran on a bimetallic CoPd phosphide catalyst supported on KUSY

The Delplot method provides a means of analyzing conversion and selectivity data to derive a reaction sequence and has been applied so far to gas-phase or liquid-phase species. This study analyses the applicability of the method for catalytic reactions and considers for the first time adsorbed intermediates. The method is applied to a contact time study of the hydrodeoxygenation (HDO) of benzofuran at 0.5 MPa and 350 °C over a catalyst consisting of bimetallic CoPd phosphide supported on a potassium ion-exchanged ultra-stable Y (KUSY) zeolite. Both simple and detailed reaction networks were derived. The simple networks considered only gas-phase species and were modeled by a first-order sequence of steps, whereas the detailed network took into account adsorbed intermediates and was simulated using a rake mechanism. The networks were compared using F-statistics, which accounted for the differences in the number of fitting parameters. The detailed network gave a better fit to the experimental data because it represented a more realistic description of the transformation. A suggested sequence from the Delplot method was consistent with the simple network but not with the detailed network. The lack of applicability of the Delplot analysis to the network with adsorbates was linked to overly large equilibrium constants, a determination supported by Delplot fitting for a model sequence. Further, this study indicated the inapplicability of the Delplot method in determining reaction sequences that involve adsorbed species with large equilibrium constants for formation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗