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At least 937 records · Page 52

Development of a Benchmark Eddy Flux Evapotranspiration Dataset for Evaluation of Satellite-Driven Evapotranspiration Models Over the CONUS

A large sample of ground-based evapotranspiration (ET) measurements made in the United States, primarily from eddy covariance systems, were post-processed to produce a benchmark ET dataset. The dataset was produced primarily to support the intercomparison and evaluation of the OpenET satellite-based remote sensing ET (RSET) models and could also be used to evaluate ET data from other models and approaches. OpenET is a web-based service that makes field-delineated and pixel-level ET estimates from well-established RSET models readily available to water managers, agricultural producers, and the public. The benchmark dataset is composed of flux and meteorological data from a variety of providers covering native vegetation and agricultural settings. Flux footprint predictions were developed for each station and included static flux footprints developed based on average wind direction and speed, as well as dynamic hourly footprints that were generated with a physically based model of upwind source area. The two footprint prediction methods were rigorously compared to evaluate their relative spatial coverage. Data from all sources were post-processed in a consistent and reproducible manner including data handling, gap-filling, temporal aggregation, and energy balance closure correction. The resulting dataset included 243,048 daily and 5,284 monthly ET values from 194 stations, with all data falling between 1995 and 2021. We assessed average daily energy imbalance using 172 flux sites with a total of 193,021 days of data, finding that overall turbulent fluxes were understated by about 12% on average relative to available energy. Multiple linear regression analyses indicated that daily average latent energy flux may be typically understated slightly more than sensible heat flux. This dataset was developed to provide a consistent reference to support evaluation of RSET data being developed for a wide range of applications related to water accounting and water resources management at field to watershed scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Addressing energy storage needs at lower cost via on-site thermal energy storage in buildings

Cost-effective energy storage is a critical enabler for the large-scale deployment of renewable electricity. Significant resources have been directed toward developing cost-effective energy storage, with research and development efforts dominated by work on lithium ion (Li-ion) battery technology. Though Li-ion batteries have many attractive qualities, it is not clear whether they can provide an affordable levelized cost of storage (LCOS) for certain applications, such as buildings. Buildings consume most of the world's electricity, and as much as 50% of their consumption goes toward meeting thermal loads. Thermal energy storage (TES) can provide a cost-effective alternative to Li-ion batteries for buildings; however, two questions remain to be answered. First, how much of total building energy storage requirements can be met via thermal storage for building loads? Second, can the LCOS for TES be favorable compared with Li-ion batteries? In this perspective, using the United States as a case study, we show that the total requirement for TES in buildings is in the range of ~1200–4500 electrical GW h, depending on the fraction of solar versus wind in the generation mix. Furthermore, we show that with at least 25% wind generation, all of the storage needed by buildings to support the grid can be met by TES. We also introduce a framework to calculate LCOS for on-site TES in buildings to enable a direct comparison with electrical storage technologies such as Li-ion batteries. This is not trivial, because the input energy type for TES (electricity) differs from the output energy type (thermal energy), and the efficiency can depend on ambient conditions. Our LCOS analysis shows that in many situations, TES can be more cost-effective for buildings than Li-ion batteries. We conclude our perspective by discussing future research and development opportunities that can significantly advance the deployment of TES for buildings to help enable a renewable electricity-dependent grid.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Comparing net zero pathways across the Atlantic A model inter-comparison exercise between the Energy Modeling Forum 37 and the European Climate and Energy Modeling Forum

Europe and North America account for 32 % of current carbon emissions. Due to distinct legacy systems, energy infrastructure, socioeconomic development, and energy resource endowment, both regions have different policy and technological pathways to reach net zero by the mid-century. Against this background, our paper examines the results from the net zero emission scenarios for Europe and North America that emerged from the collaboration of the European and American Energy Modeling Forums. Here, in our analysis, we perform an inter-comparison of various integrated assessments and bottom-up energy system models. A clear qualitative consensus emerges on five main points. First, Europe and the United States reach net zero targets with electrification, demand-side reductions, and carbon capture and sequestration technologies. Second, the use of carbon capture and sequestration is more predominant in the United States due to a steeper decarbonization schedule. Third, the buildings sector is the easiest to electrify in both regions. Fourth, the industrial sector is the hardest to electrify in the United States and transportation in Europe. Fifth, in both regions, the transition in the energy mix is driven by the substitution of coal and natural gas with solar and wind, but to a different extent.

100 % renewables↗

Sequence Impedance Modeling of Grid-Forming Converters: Preprint

Grid-forming control of inverter-based resources (IBRs) has been identified as a critical technology for operating power systems with high levels of inverter-based resources. This paper presents sequence impedance modeling of grid-forming inverters to evaluate its small-signal stability properties. Droop based grid-forming control with full consideration of the multiloop structure is studied, and the impact of individual controller on the inverter impedance characteristics is discussed. The developed sequence impedance model is compared with that of the grid-following inverter. It is found from the developed sequence impedance models that grid-forming inverters are less prone to harmonic resonance problems during operation with weaker grids. The developed models are validated using PSCAD simulations.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

Decarbonization and technology cost drivers: considerations for potential future thermoelectric water use in the power sector

The power sector is currently undergoing significant changes, driven by a combination of factors, including decarbonization and technology innovation. This study aims to assess implications of these drivers on U.S. power sector technology futures and the associated water and environmental implications for cooling thermoelectric power plants. Specifically, we evaluate four decarbonization scenarios for the contiguous United States that vary in assumptions concerning demand growth and technology costs, with technology costs driving alternative outcomes that prioritize either technologies that require low amounts of water (such as wind, solar, and battery) or high amounts of water (such as nuclear and carbon capture and storage). These scenarios are executed in a power sector capacity expansion model and compared to two reference scenarios that assume status quo with policy and cost drivers. Our analysis indicates that future U.S. thermoelectric water withdrawals could decrease by 25%–60%, but water consumption could more than triple in some scenarios. These changes are driven by a combination of retirement of some power facilities, shifts in cooling technologies, and new technology deployment. The water use patterns vary across the United States, with the eastern regions demonstrating a lot more variability in water consumption across scenarios than western regions. However, local concerns can influence these possible investments, since increased water consumption can exacerbate water scarcity, leading to conflicts among competing users and affecting regional social, environmental, and economic dynamics. Future work should consider possible costs associated with alternate water sources, as well as improve the representation of water constraints within simulations. Inclusion of extreme events and alternate modeling platforms (e.g. production cost modeling and resource adequacy) may also be warranted to further stress test the robustness of these possible technology futures. Such assessments will be critical for ensuring decarbonization and other infrastructure-oriented investments lead to a reliable and resilient power grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

STFM: Accurate Spatio-Temporal Fusion Model for Weather Forecasting

Meteorological prediction is crucial for various sectors, including agriculture, navigation, daily life, disaster prevention, and scientific research. However, traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are constrained by their high computational resource requirements, while the accuracy of deep learning models remains suboptimal. In response to these challenges, we propose a novel deep learning-based model, the Spatiotemporal Fusion Model (STFM), designed to enhance the accuracy of meteorological predictions. Our model leverages Fifth-Generation ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA5) data and introduces two key components: a spatiotemporal encoder module and a spatiotemporal fusion module. The spatiotemporal encoder integrates the strengths of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and recurrent neural networks (RNNs), effectively capturing both spatial and temporal dependencies. Meanwhile, the spatiotemporal fusion module employs a dual attention mechanism, decomposing spatial attention into global static attention and channel dynamic attention. This approach ensures comprehensive extraction of spatial features from meteorological data. The combination of these modules significantly improves prediction performance. Experimental results demonstrate that STFM excels in extracting spatiotemporal features from reanalysis data, yielding predictions that closely align with observed values. In comparative studies, STFM outperformed other models, achieving a 7% improvement in ground and high-altitude temperature predictions, a 5% enhancement in the prediction of the u/v components of 10 m wind speed, and an increase in the accuracy of potential height and relative humidity predictions by 3% and 1%, respectively. This enhanced performance highlights STFM’s potential to advance the accuracy and reliability of meteorological forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Are Atmospheric Models Too Cold in the Mountains? The State of Science and Insights from the SAIL Field Campaign

Mountains play an outsized role in water resource availability, and the amount and timing of water they provide depend strongly on temperature. To that end, we ask the question: How well are atmospheric models capturing mountain temperatures? We synthesize results showing that high-resolution, regionally relevant climate models produce 2-m air temperature (T2m) measurements colder than what is observed (a “cold bias”), particularly in snow-covered midlatitude mountain ranges during winter. We find common cold biases in 44 studies across global mountain ranges, including single-model and multimodel ensembles. We explore the factors driving these biases and examine the physical mechanisms, data limitations, and observational uncertainties behind T2m. Our analysis suggests that the biases are genuine and not due to observation sparsity or resolution mismatches. Cold biases occur primarily on mountain peaks and ridges, whereas valleys are often warm biased. Our literature review suggests that increasing model resolution does not clearly mitigate the bias. By analyzing data from the Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) field campaign in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, we test various hypotheses related to cold biases and find that local wind circulations, longwave (LW) radiation, and surface-layer parameterizations contribute to the T2m biases in this particular location. We conclude by emphasizing the value of coordinated model evaluation and development efforts in heavily instrumented mountain locations for addressing the root cause(s) of T2m biases and improving predictive understanding of mountain climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Are Atmospheric Models Too Cold in the Mountains? The State of Science and Insights from the SAIL Field Campaign

Mountains play an outsized role in water resource availability, and the amount and timing of water they provide depend strongly on temperature. To that end, we ask the question: How well are atmospheric models capturing mountain temperatures? We synthesize results showing that high-resolution, regionally relevant climate models produce 2-m air temperature (T2m) measurements colder than what is observed (a “cold bias”), particularly in snow-covered midlatitude mountain ranges during winter. We find common cold biases in 44 studies across global mountain ranges, including single-model and multimodel ensembles. We explore the factors driving these biases and examine the physical mechanisms, data limitations, and observational uncertainties behind T2m. Our analysis suggests that the biases are genuine and not due to observation sparsity or resolution mismatches. Cold biases occur primarily on mountain peaks and ridges, whereas valleys are often warm biased. Our literature review suggests that increasing model resolution does not clearly mitigate the bias. By analyzing data from the Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) field campaign in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, we test various hypotheses related to cold biases and find that local wind circulations, longwave (LW) radiation, and surface-layer parameterizations contribute to the T2m biases in this particular location. We conclude by emphasizing the value of coordinated model evaluation and development efforts in heavily instrumented mountain locations for addressing the root cause(s) of T2m biases and improving predictive understanding of mountain climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The evolving role of geothermal energy for decarbonizing the United States

Geothermal energy is often referred to as a niche technology that is too localized, too small or too expensive to make much of a difference in how renewable energy will be supplied in a fully decarbonized future. As a result, geothermal energy has been undervalued in terms of what it could provide to complement, rather than compete with, electricity generation from wind, solar photovoltaic, concentrating solar power and other renewables. Geothermal energy systems are fully dispatchable and can provide baseload or load-following electric power or heat suitable for a wide range of applications including supplying district heating for communities and cities, and heating and cooling of individual buildings. The focus of our study is on the potential of utilizing geothermal energy for providing heat for buildings and industry at lower temperatures, a substitute for the combustion of fossil fuels. Because heating represents about 20% (20 EJ per year) of the annual primary energy consumption in the U.S.—with most of it coming from burning natural gas, oil and/or propane in furnaces—deploying geothermal heating on a national scale could have a significant impact on lowering carbon emissions. In heating-dominated states in the U.S. Northern Tier, heating often is among the largest contributors to the state's carbon footprint. This review begins with a discussion of the motivation and rationale behind considering geothermal as a key low-carbon heating option for the U.S. The study summarizes the U.S. geothermal resource and describes the applications and main engineering components of using geothermal energy for heating and cooling, electric power generation, and co-generation using district heating, geothermal heat pumps, and power conversion with steam flashing and organic Rankine plants. Environmental benefits and impacts are described. An extensive discussion of geologic and thermal-hydraulic aspects of the subsurface is included in the review because of their critical role in determining reservoir designs at specific sites to ensure sufficient productivity that is both safe and economically viable. Models for estimating levelized costs of district heating are used to show how costs are affected by reservoir performance, infrastructure capital costs, and financial parameters. Here, the review concludes with an assessment of technical subsurface issues associated with reservoir performance and the economic requirements for providing geothermal heating in district heating systems at a sufficient scale to have an impact on decarbonizing the U.S.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Optimal Design of Sustainable Ammonia-Based Food–Energy–Water Systems with Nitrogen Management

As the basis for virtually any form of nitrogen fertilizers, ammonia plays a vital role in agriculture; in addition, there has been an increased interest in its use as a carbon-free energy carrier. However, ammonia is also associated with two major environmental concerns: CO 2 emissions from the conventional production process and nitrogen pollution from the excessive use of ammonia-based fertilizers. To mitigate these environmental impacts, we develop an optimization framework for the design of a sustainable ammonia-based agricultural system that synergistically integrates the production of ammonia from renewable resources and effective measures for nitrogen management. The proposed model captures the effect of intermittency by incorporating both design and detailed operational decisions. Here, by applying a multiscale time representation that reduces the problem size and a tailored surrogate model that accurately approximates model nonlinearity, we are able to achieve optimal solutions within reasonable computation times. A computational case study is conducted using real-world data from a local farm in Morris, Minnesota, and the results indicate the trade-off between cost and nitrogen loss. Importantly, we show that practicing effective nitrogen management can significantly reduce the nitrogen loss with only a small increase in net present cost.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

Upper-air soundings collected during the CROCUS Urban Canyons 2024 campaign in Chicago, Illinois USA

Funded by the Department of Energy’s Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research program, Community Research on Climate and Urban Science (CROCUS) studies urban climate change and the impact it has on communities, with particular focus on disinvested, under-resourced communities. This information leads to new insights on urban climate challenges and informs future actions for mitigating and adapting to climate change at the street, neighborhood and regional levels.As part of the CROCUS effort, the Urban Canyons 2024 project was undertaken to study conditions at unprecedented detail over various neighborhoods in Chicago, Illinois. This dataset consists of upper air soundings that were collected as part of this effort. Soundings were launched during two intensive observing periods, IOP1 occurred on 22-23 July 2024, while IOP2 occurred on 27-28 July 2024. For IOP1, soundings were launched at coordinated times from three sites, Shedd Aquarium in Downtown Chicago, Abizu Campus High School in Humboldt Park, and Gary Comer Youth Center in West Woodlawn. For IOP2, the Gary Comer site was replaced by a neighborhood site in West Woodlawn, Chicago. The Abizu Campos site was operated by Valparaiso University and used iMET-4 rawinsondes, the other sites were operated by the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign and used GRAW DFM-19 sondes.This dataset contains netCDF files containing quality-controlled temperature, dewpoint, geopotential height, pressure, and vector wind measurements at 1 second intervals following launch. These files are readable by the open-source netCDF software libraries available in many software packages (i.e., python, R, fortran, C++, etc.). The dataset also contains quicklook plots of each launch on a skew-T log-p thermodynamic diagram. These are in png format viewable by most web browsers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Linking resource availability to pantropical forest canopy resistance and resilience to cyclone disturbance

Statement of purpose: Tropical cyclones are intensifying and occurring at higher latitudes in recent decades, but the mechanisms underpinning the resistance (ability to withstand disturbance-induced change) and resilience (pace of return to pre-disturbance reference values) of tropical forests to cyclones remains largely unexplored at the pantropical scale. We conducted a meta-analysis to investigate the role of soil resource availability (i.e., total soil phosphorus concentration) in mediating site-level forest canopy resistance and resilience to cyclones pan-tropically. We evaluated cyclone-induced and post-cyclone litterfall mass (g/m2/day), phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) fluxes (mg/m2/day), as well as concentrations (mg/g) across 73 case studies in Australia, Guadeloupe, Hawaii, Mexico, Puerto Rico, and Taiwan. The dataset zip file includes three data and two metadata files: - The compiled Litterfall Mass Flux data from tropical forests across the globe prior to and after varying tropical cyclone disturbances are provided in Litterfall_Mass.csv. This data file also includes site location, geographical characteristics, elevation, soil phosphorus concentration, geology, and several variables related to each tropical cyclone disturbance. - The compiled Litterfall Nitrogen and Phosphorus Flux data from tropical forests across the globe prior to and after varying tropical cyclone disturbances are provided in Litterfall_Nutrients.csv. This data file also includes site location, geographical characteristics, elevation, soil phosphorus concentration, geology, and several variables related to each tropical cyclone disturbance. - Tropical cyclone track data compiled from HURDAT2 and IBTrACS databases and used as input in the HURRECON model (https://github.com/hurrecon-model/HurreconR) to generate wind data is provided in hurdat2-1851-2019-052520.txt. - The metadata file (Metadata_Meta-analysis_Litterfall-Mass.pdf) has the complete information on each variable included in the Litterfall_Mass.csv dataset, the data sources, and data processing information. - The metadata file (Metadata_Meta-analysis_Litterfall-Nutrients.pdf) has the complete information on each variable included in the Litterfall_Nutrients.csv dataset, the data sources, and data processing information.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Exploring sustainable electricity system development pathways in South America’s MERCOSUR sub-region

South America has abundant natural water and energy resources, and exploiting these resources to achieve a clean energy future is central to the continent’s economic and sustainable development objectives for the next several decades. Designing pathways to achieving this clean energy future requires better understanding the structural, techno-economic, and policy forces that may influence the future development of the electricity sector in the region. Here, we focus on an interconnected electricity system of five South American countries – Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay – which represent major electricity generation, consumption, and trade dynamics in the region. We explore the implications of various forces that could shape the future composition of the power sector in the sub-region, including: evolving renewable energy cost and performance, natural gas prices, cross-border interconnection facilities, early retirement of installed hydropower, and different decarbonization goals. We use a model framework based on a power system planning platform (GridPath) to co-optimize investment and operations of generation, storage, and transmission facilities out to 2050. Our results in a Reference scenario indicate that the electricity system can maintain a relatively clean energy portfolio by leveraging existing hydropower capacity and integrating increasingly cost-competitive wind and solar power. However, dependence on natural gas in the region is likely to remain high. A low-carbon electricity system can cost-effectively be achieved through policy interventions (e.g., renewable portfolio standards) and by diversifying investments in wind, solar, battery storage, and some new hydropower capacity. We also find that existing hydropower is critical for maintaining reliable future grid operations. Enhanced regional electricity trade, mostly based on existing interconnection capacities with nominal investment in new transmission, can significantly benefit the clean energy transition in the region.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Self-Sustained CPS Design for Reliable Wildfire Monitoring

Continuous monitoring of areas nearby the electric grid is critical for preventing and early detection of devastating wildfires. Existing wildfire monitoring systems are intermittent and oblivious to local ambient risk factors, resulting in poor wildfire awareness. Ambient sensor suites deployed near the gridlines can increase the monitoring granularity and detection accuracy. However, these sensors must address two challenging and competing objectives at the same time. First, they must remain powered for years without manual maintenance due to their remote locations. Second, they must provide and transmit reliable information if and when a wildfire starts. The first objective requires aggressive energy savings and ambient energy harvesting, while the second requires continuous operation of a range of sensors. To the best of our knowledge, this paper presents the first self-sustained cyber-physical system that dynamically co-optimizes the wildfire detection accuracy and active time of sensors. The proposed approach employs reinforcement learning to train a policy that controls the sensor operations as a function of the environment (i.e., current sensor readings), harvested energy, and battery level. Here, the proposed cyber-physical system is evaluated extensively using real-life temperature, wind, and solar energy harvesting datasets and an open-source wildfire simulator. In long-term (5 years) evaluations, the proposed framework achieves 89% uptime, which is 46% higher than a carefully tuned heuristic approach. At the same time, it averages a 2-minute initial response time, which is at least 2.5× faster than the same heuristic approach. Furthermore, the policy network consumes 0.6 mJ per day on the TI CC2652R microcontroller using TensorFlow Lite for Micro, which is negligible compared to the daily sensor suite energy consumption.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Unlocking America's Abundant Marine Energy Resources

NREL Marine Energy One-Pager: A resource designed for use during NREL campus visits - especially with high-profile guests - as well as at events in Washington, D.C., when engaging with the new administration, and for displays at WPTO or lab booths. The U.S. holds vast untapped marine energy resources - wave, tidal, river, and ocean currents - that can strengthen grid resilience, support coastal communities, and advance energy independence. NREL leads innovation in this space through advanced modeling tools, patented technologies, and world-class testing facilities. NREL's simulation platforms, like OpenFAST and SAM, help reduce development time and risk. Patented devices such as PKelp and FlexWEC demonstrate flexible, resilient approaches to energy capture. At Flatirons Campus, NREL offers motion simulation, structural testing, wave tanks, and megawatt-scale microgrid emulation via the ARIES platform. These capabilities help developers refine and validate devices before in-water trials. With upcoming open-water testing at PacWave and strong partnerships, NREL is accelerating the path to commercialization - positioning the U.S. as a global leader in marine energy innovation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Methods for Representing Flexible, Energy-Constrained Technologies in Utility Planning Tools

Capacity expansion models are widely used by power system researchers, planners, and policy analysts to evaluate alternative power system investment scenarios. With the increasing deployment of wind and solar in the US, there has been much focus on improving the representations of variable generation (VG) technologies within capacity expansion models. Models that capture the variable net-load profiles and larger reserve requirements associated with high penetration VG systems represent an improvement to classic capacity expansion models, but fall short of capturing the complexities associated with storage technologies, such as battery energy storage (BES) and concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage (CSP with TES). While difficult to model in a capacity expansion setting, these technologies are potentially competitive sources of flexibility with the intriguing characteristics of being able to absorb VG that would otherwise be curtailed and directly contribute to renewable energy goals, respectively. In this paper we present methods for accurately representing these technologies in a large-scale capacity expansion model with high electrical and geospatial resolution. VG modeling techniques, including novel methods for capturing curtailment due to unit commitment and other hourly dispatch phenomena, are also reviewed. Modeling for a region in the southwestern United States demonstrates the economic relevance of being able to explicitly trade off the costs and capabilities of energy-constrained technologies, especially BES, against other resources in the near-term, in time to make plans for the coming decade

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Emerging Energy Market Analysis Initiative, Methodological Framework

Planning and operations of the electric power sector are undergoing radical changes. Climate change mitigation efforts have forced rapid changes to the technology mix. Technologies like wind and solar have experienced rapid growth, while investment in fossil sources has peaked or is declining. These foundational changes are forcing changes to energy systems. Demand-side adoption of electrified technologies, including electric vehicles, is changing load profiles and opening up new avenues for consumer participation in the power systems. The implications of an evolving power system pertain to more than environmental and technical dimensions. Changes to the generation mix and its consequent upstream and downstream impacts such as fuel production have significant and highly concentrated consequences on economies and employment. Shifts towards distributed (or decentralized) generating assets offer the potential to reshape economic and employment opportunities associated with the energy sector across space and socioeconomic groups. The Emerging Energy Market Analysis (EMA) initiative aims to identify sustainable, regionally acceptable, and high-value energy solutions that are secure and equitable. Unlike short-term, least-cost choices that can narrowly account for traditional options, EMA’s focus on emerging energy markets recognizes that new or adapted practices and technologies can alter the frontier of solutions and advance a community’s social, economic, and natural pathways. Such change requires a more comprehensive analysis of societal input, resources, capabilities, and infrastructure. These considerations lay the foundation for community decision-making models that are responsive to community values as well as the history and drivers. The result is a community-based decision and engagement model that will be valuable to decisionmakers and developers of advanced and emerging energy solutions, seeking a social license to operate prior to project development.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Catalina Repower Feasibility Study: NREL Phases I & II Summary Report

Engineers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) supported Southern California Edison (SCE) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) by conducting technical and economic analyses for energy systems at Santa Catalina (Catalina) Island, which is located 22 miles off the coast of Long Beach, California. This effort was part of a broader Repower Catalina Feasibility Study that was also supported by NV5, an engineering consulting firm and project partner to NREL for this analysis. This document describes NREL’s techno-economic modeling and optimization analysis for the first two phases of this project which focus on supply-side generation and energy storage options for Catalina. SCE’s goal for this analysis is to determine a strategy for electricity generation on Catalina Island that results in lower energy costs, improved energy resiliency, and reduced air emissions. EPA goals for this effort are to reduce emissions of air pollution and encourage renewable energy development on contaminated and formerly contaminated lands when such development is aligned with the community’s vision for the site. Currently, an on-island SCE power plant serves the Catalina Island electrical load with 6 reciprocating diesel generators totaling 9.4 MW; 23 propane-fueled microturbines totaling 1.5 MW; and a 1-MW, 7.2-MWh sodium sulfur battery energy storage system (BESS). In 2017, the electricity consumption on the island was 29.1 GWh, with an average load of 3.3 MW and peak load of approximately 5.5 MW. Considering new environmental standards on diesel generator emissions from California’s South Coast Air Quality Management District, a 60% renewable energy target for 2030 laid out in California’s Senate Bill 100, SCE’s Clean Power Electrification Pathway, and the characteristics of the island’s existing diesel generators, SCE is seeking to evaluate the technical and economic implications of different energy technology options to determine a path forward. Phases I and II of the Repower Catalina Feasibility Study, summarized in this document, evaluated the following: Interconnection with the mainland via an undersea cable; On-island fossil fuel generation, including diesel, propane, and/or liquified natural gas (LNG); On-island renewable energy (RE) technologies, including solar photovoltaics (PV), wind turbines, and wave energy devices; BESS to support the above generation technologies; Initial analysis of the potential impacts of implementing energy efficiency measures. Results indicate strong techno-economic potential for a mix of on-island diesel and/or propane generators, solar PV, BESS, and energy efficiency measures to help SCE and Catalina achieve their goals compliant with California’s emissions and clean energy standards while minimizing electricity life cycle costs (LCC) over the 30-year analysis period. This document summarizes the considerations and findings of Phases I and II, focusing on high-level takeaways from Phase I and more detailed results from Phase II, and discusses a potential path forward for Phase III.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗