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At least 937 records · Page 52

Defining weather scenarios for simulation-based assessment of thermal resilience of buildings under current and future climates: A case study in Brazil

In response to increasingly severe weather conditions, optimization of building performance and investment provides an opportunity to consider co-benefits of thermal resilience during energy efficiency retrofits. This work aims to assess thermal resilience of buildings using building performance simulation to evaluate the indoor overheating risk under nine weather scenarios, considering historical (2010s), mid-term future (2050s), and long-term future (2090s) typical meteorological years, and heat wave years. Such an analysis is based on resilience profiles that combine six integrated indicators. A case study with a district of 92 buildings in Brazil was conducted, and a combination of strategies to improve thermal resilience was identified. Results reflect the necessity of planning for resilience in the context of climate change. This is because strategies recommended under current conditions might not be ideal in the future. Therefore, an adaptable design should be prioritized. Cooling energy consumption could increase by 48 % by the 2050s, while excessive overheating issues could reach 37 % of the buildings. Simple passive strategies can significantly reduce the heat stress. A comprehensive thermal resilience analysis should ultimately be accompanied by a thorough reflection on the stakeholders’ objectives, available resources, and planning horizon, as well as the risks assumed for not being resilient.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Changes in Zinc Speciation with Mine Tailings Acidification in a Semiarid Weathering Environment

High concentrations of residual metal contaminants in mine tailings can be transported easily by wind and water, particularly when tailings remain unvegetated for decades following mining cessation, as is the case in semiarid landscapes. Understanding the speciation and mobility of contaminant metal(loid)s, particularly in surficial tailings, is essential to controlling their phytotoxicities and to revegetating impacted sites. In prior work, we showed that surficial tailings samples from the Klondyke State Superfund Site (AZ, USA), ranging in pH from 5.4 to 2.6, represent a weathering series, with acidification resulting from sulfide mineral oxidation, long-term Fe hydrolysis, and a concurrent decrease in total (6000 to 450 mg kg{sup -1}) and plant-available (590 to 75 mg kg{sup -1}) Zn due to leaching losses and changes in Zn speciation. Here, we used bulk and microfocused Zn K-edge X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) data and a six-step sequential extraction procedure to determine tailings solid phase Zn speciation. Bulk sample spectra were fit by linear combination using three references: Zn-rich phyllosilicate (Zn{sub 0.8}talc), Zn sorbed to ferrihydrite (Zn{sub adsFeOx}), and zinc sulfate (ZnSO{sub 4} {center_dot} 7H{sub 2}O). Analyses indicate that Zn sorbed in tetrahedral coordination to poorly crystalline Fe and Mn (oxyhydr)oxides decreases with acidification in the weathering sequence, whereas octahedral zinc in sulfate minerals and crystalline Fe oxides undergoes a relative accumulation. Microscale analyses identified hetaerolite (ZnMn{sub 2}O{sub 4}), hemimorphite (Zn{sub 4}Si{sub 2}O{sub 7}(OH){sub 2} {center_dot} H{sub 2}O) and sphalerite (ZnS) as minor phases. Bulk and microfocused spectroscopy complement the chemical extraction results and highlight the importance of using a multimethod approach to interrogate complex tailings systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Landscape Age as a Major Control on the Geography of Soil Weathering

Global-scale models of rock-derived nutrient availability often assume that physical erosion drives soils toward an approximate “steady state” over geologic timescales. By definition, steady-state models do not represent landscape age—that is, the time elapsed since soil formation is initiated by major erosional or depositional events. We hypothesize that this steady-state assumption has large consequences on estimates of soil fertility because landscape age can mediate the retention of mobile elements in soil, particularly in low-relief landscapes and humid climates. We quantified the effect of landscape age on soil fertility by estimating Na retention in soils across the United States and explicitly resolving landscape age in regions that experienced significant deposition or glacial retreat after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). We then used a simple one-compartment model to simulate soil formation and weathering, comparing predictions that incorporated landscape age with those based on the steady-state assumption. We found that soils formed in LGM deposits in low-relief, humid settings generally retain 10 times more Na than soils formed outside of LGM deposits. Furthermore, the model that accounted for landscape age outperformed a steady-state model across the United States and increased globally averaged estimates of Na retention by 17%. These results reinforce the idea that landscape age is a major control on weathering and should not be ignored in simulations of nutrient cycling.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Forecasting for the Weather Driven Energy System - A New Task under IEA Wind

The energy system needs a range of forecast types for its operation in addition to the narrow wind power forecast that has been the focus of considerable recent attention. Therefore, the group behind the former IEA Wind Task 36 Forecasting for Wind Energy has initiated a new IEA Wind Task with a much broader perspective, which includes prospective interaction with other IEA Technology Collaboration Programmes such as the ones for PV, hydropower, system integration, hydrogen etc. In the new IEA Wind Task 51 (entitled "Foreacsting for the Weather Drive Energy System") the existing Work Packages (WPs) are complemented by work streams in a matrix structure. The Task is divided in three WPs according to the stakeholders: WP1 is mainly aimed at meteorologists, providing the weather forecast basis for the power forecasts. In WP2, the forecast service vendors are the main stakeholders, while the end users populate WP3. The new Task 51 started in January 2022. Planned activities include 4 workshops. The first will focus on the state of the art in forecasting for the energy system plus related research issues and be held during September 2022 in Dublin. The other three workshops will be held later during the 4-year Task period and address (1) seasonal forecasting with emphasis on Dunkelflaute, storage and hydro, (2) minute-scale forecasting, and (3) extreme power system events. The issues and conclusions of each of the workshops will be documented by a published paper. Additionally, the Recommended Practice on Forecast Solution Selection will be updated to reflect the broader perspective.

geophysics computing↗

Trends in surface equivalent potential temperature: A more comprehensive metric for global warming and weather extremes

Significance The Earth has warmed by 1.2 ± 0.1 °C since the preindustrial era. The most common metric to measure the ongoing global warming is surface air temperature since it has long and reliable observational records. However, surface air temperature alone does not fully describe the nature of global warming and its impact on climate and weather extremes. Here we show that surface equivalent potential temperature, which combines the surface air temperature and humidity, is a more comprehensive metric not only for the global warming but also for its impact on climate and weather extremes including tropical deep convection and extreme heat waves. We recommend that it should be used more widely in future climate change studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Predicting Storm Outages Through New Representations of Weather and Vegetation

This paper presents new developments in an outage prediction model (OPM) for an electric distribution network in the Northeastern United States and assesses their significance to the OPM performance. The OPM uses regression tree models fed by numerical weather prediction outputs, spatially distributed information on soil, vegetation, electric utility assets, and historical power outage data to forecast the number and spatial distribution of outages across the power distribution grid. New modules introduced hereby consist in 1) a storm classifier based on weather variables; 2) a multimodel optimization of regression tree output; and 3) a post-processing routine for more accurately describing tree-leaf conditions. Model implementations are tested through leave-one-storm-out cross-validations performed on 120 storms of varying intensity and characteristics. The results demonstrate that the median absolute percentage error of the new OPM version decreased from 130% to 59% for outage predictions at the service territory level, and the OPM skills for operational forecasts are consistent with the skills based on historical storm analyses.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Improved net carbon budgets in the US Midwest through direct measured impacts of enhanced weathering

Abstract Terrestrial enhanced weathering (EW) through the application of Mg‐ or Ca‐rich rock dust to soil is a negative emission technology with the potential to address impacts of climate change. The effectiveness of EW was tested over 4 years by spreading ground basalt (50 t ha −1 year −1 ) on maize/soybean and miscanthus cropping systems in the Midwest US. The major elements of the carbon budget were quantified through measurements of eddy covariance, soil carbon flux, and biomass. The movement of Mg and Ca to deep soil, released by weathering, balanced by a corresponding alkalinity flux, was used to measure the drawdown of CO 2 , where the release of cations from basalt was measured as the ratio of rare earth elements to base cations in the applied rock dust and in the surface soil. Basalt application stimulated peak biomass and net primary production in both cropping systems and caused a small but significant stimulation of soil respiration. Net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) was strongly negative for maize/soybean (−199 to −453 g C m −2 year −1 ) indicating this system was losing carbon to the atmosphere. Average EW (102 g C m −2 year −1 ) offset carbon loss in the maize/soybean by 23%–42%. NECB of miscanthus was positive (63–129 g C m −2 year −1 ), indicating carbon gain in the system, and EW greatly increased inorganic carbon storage by an additional 234 g C m −2 year −1 . Our analysis indicates a co‐deployment of a perennial biofuel crop (miscanthus) with EW leads to major wins—increased harvested yields of 29%–42% with additional carbon dioxide removal (CDR) of 8.6 t CO 2 ha −1 year −1 . EW applied to maize/soybean drives a CDR of 3.7 t CO 2 ha −1 year −1 , which partially offsets well‐established carbon losses from soil from this crop rotation. EW applied in the US Midwest creates measurable improvements to the carbon budgets perennial bioenergy crops and conventional row crops.

enhanced weathering↗

Evaluation of the Near-Surface Variables in the HRRR Weather Model Using Observations from the ARM SGP Site

Abstract The performance of version 4 of the NOAA High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) numerical weather prediction model for near-surface variables, including wind, humidity, temperature, surface latent and sensible fluxes, and longwave and shortwave radiative fluxes, is examined over the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) region. The study evaluated the model’s bias and bias-corrected mean absolute error relative to the observations on different time scales. Forecasts of near-surface geophysical variables at five SGP sites (HRRR at 3-km scale) were found to agree well with observations, but some consistent observation–forecast differences also occurred. Sensible and latent heat fluxes are the most challenging variables to be reproduced. The diurnal cycle is the main temporal scale affecting observation–forecast differences of the near-surface variables, and almost all of the variables showed different biases throughout the diurnal cycle. Results show that the overestimation of downward shortwave and the underestimation of downward longwave radiative flux are the two major biases found in this study. The timing and magnitude of downward longwave flux, wind speed, and sensible and latent heat fluxes are also different with contributions from model representations, data assimilation limitations, and differences in scales between HRRR and SGP sites. The positive bias in downward shortwave and negative bias in longwave radiation suggests that the model is underestimating cloud fraction in the study domain. The study concludes by showing a brief comparison with version 3 of the HRRR and shows that version 4 has better performance in almost all near-surface variables. Significance Statement A correct representation of the near-surface variables is important for numerical weather prediction models. This study investigates the capability of the latest NOAA High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRRv4) model in simulating the near-surface variables by comparing against the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) in situ observations. Among others, we find that the surface heat fluxes, such as sensible and latent heat fluxes, are the most difficult variables to be reproduced. This study also shows that the diurnal cycle has the dominant impact on the model’s performance, which means the majority of the outputted near-surface variables have the strong diurnal cycle in their bias errors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of the Fitch Wind-Farm Wake Parameterization with Large-Eddy Simulations of Wakes Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

Abstract Wind-farm parameterizations in weather models can be used to predict both the power output and farm effects on the flow; however, their correctness has not been thoroughly assessed. We evaluate the wind-farm parameterization of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with large-eddy simulations (LES) of the wake performed with the same model. We study the impact on the velocity and turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) of inflow velocity, roughness, resolution, number of turbines (one or two), and inversion height and strength. We compare the mesoscale with the LES by spatially averaging the LES within areas correspondent to the mesoscale horizontal spacing: one covering the turbine area and two downwind. We find an excellent agreement of the velocity within the turbine area between the two types of simulations. However, within the same area, we find the largest TKE discrepancies because in mesoscale simulations, the turbine-added TKE has to be highest at the turbine position to be advected downwind. Within the downwind areas, differences between velocities increase as the wake recovers faster in the LES, whereas for the TKE both types of simulations show similar levels. From the various configurations, the impact of inversion height and strength is small for these heights and inversion levels. The highest impact for the one-turbine simulations appears under the low-speed case due to the higher thrust, whereas the impact of resolution is low for the large-eddy simulations but high for the mesoscale simulations. Our findings demonstrate that higher-fidelity simulations are needed to validate wind-farm parameterizations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Evaluation of the Rapid Refresh Numerical Weather Prediction Model over Arctic Alaska

Abstract Despite a need for accurate weather forecasts for societal and economic interests in the U.S. Arctic, thorough evaluations of operational numerical weather prediction in the region have been limited. In particular, the Rapid Refresh Model (RAP), which plays a key role in short-term forecasting and decision-making, has seen very limited assessment in northern Alaska, with most evaluation efforts focused on lower latitudes. In the present study, we verify forecasts from version 4 of the RAP against radiosonde, surface meteorological, and radiative flux observations from two Arctic sites on the northern Alaskan coastline, with a focus on boundary layer thermodynamic and dynamic biases, model representation of surface inversions, and cloud characteristics. We find persistent seasonal thermodynamic biases near the surface that vary with wind direction, and may be related to the RAP’s handling of sea ice and ocean interactions. These biases seem to have diminished in the latest version of the RAP (version 5), which includes refined handling of sea ice, among other improvements. In addition, we find that despite capturing boundary layer temperature profiles well overall, the RAP struggles to consistently represent strong, shallow surface inversions. Further, while the RAP seems to forecast the presence of clouds accurately in most cases, there are errors in the simulated characteristics of these clouds, which we hypothesize may be related to the RAP’s treatment of mixed-phase clouds.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Weatherization Apprenticeship Program

Weatherization improvement services will be provided to Native people by Native people. The proposed project will recruit, train and hire two full-time weatherization technicians who will improve the energy efficiency of homes of Alaska Natives/American Indians residing in the Indian areas, within the Cook Inlet Region of Alaska. The Region includes Anchorage as well as 8 small tribal villages: The Native Villages of Eklutna, Knik, Chickaloon, Seldovia, Ninilchik, Kenaitze, Salamatof, and Tyonek. This project will be a partnership between three entities, with Cook Inlet Tribal Council (CITC) as the lead agency: CITCA's Employment and Training Services Department, Cook Inlet Housing Authority and Alaska Works Partnership. Additionally, six of the eight tribal villages within the Cook Inlet Region of Alaska have agreed to work with the project in order to improve the energy efficiency of their tribally owned buildings and homes. The remaining three villages will be invited to participate in the establishment of an intertribal consortium through this project. Tribal homes and buildings within Anchorage fall under Cook Inlet Region, Inc. (CIRI) tribal authority.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Evaluation of Two CEDA Weatherization Pilot Implementations of an Exterior Insulation and Over-Clad Retrofit Strategy for Residential Masonry Buildings in Chicago

This project examines the implementation of an exterior insulation and over-clad strategy for brick masonry buildings in Chicago. The strategy was implemented at a free-standing two story two-family dwelling and a larger free-standing multifamily building. The test homes selected for this research represent predominant housing types for the Chicago area. High heating energy use typical in these buildings threaten housing affordability. Uninsulated mass masonry wall assemblies also have a strongly detrimental impact on comfort. Significant changes to the performance of masonry wall assemblies is generally beyond the reach of typical weatherization (Wx) program resources. The Community and Economic Development Association of Cook County, Inc. (CEDA) has secured a Sustainable Energy Resources for Consumers (SERC) innovation grant sponsored by the United States Department of Energy (DOE). This grant provides CEDA the opportunity to pursue a pilot implementation of innovative approaches to retrofit in masonry wall enclosures. The exterior insulation and over-clad strategy implemented through this project was designed to allow implementation by contractors active in CEDA weatherization programs and using materials and methods familiar to these contractors. The retrofit measures are evaluated in terms of feasibility, cost and performance. Through observations of the strategies implemented, the research described in this report identifies measures critical to performance as well as conditions for wider adoption. The research also identifies common factors that must be considered in determining whether the exterior insulation and over-clad strategy is appropriate for the building.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Attic or Roof? An Evaluation of Two Advanced Weatherization Packages

This project examines implementation of advanced retrofit measures in the context of a large-scale weatherization program and the archetypal Chicago brick bungalow. One strategy applies best practice air sealing methods and a standard insulation method to the attic floor. The other strategy creates an unvented roof assembly using materials and methods typically available to weatherization contractors. Through implementations of the retrofit strategies in a total of eight (8) test homes, the research found that the two different strategies achieve similar reductions in air leakage measurement (55%) and predicted energy performance (18%) relative to the pre-retrofit conditions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution

A report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine concludes it is now possible to estimate the influence of climate change on some types of extreme events. The science of extreme event attribution has advanced rapidly in recent years, giving new insight to the ways that human-caused climate change can influence the magnitude or frequency of some extreme weather events. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities. Confidence is strongest in attributing types of extreme events that are influenced by climate change through a well-understood physical mechanism, such as, the more frequent heat waves that are closely connected to human-caused global temperature increases, the report finds. Confidence is lower for other types of events, such as hurricanes, whose relationship to climate change is more complex and less understood at present. For any extreme event, the results of attribution studies hinge on how questions about the event's causes are posed, and on the data, modeling approaches, and statistical tools chosen for the analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Q-6 DARHT Weather Enclosure Project Upgrades Design Review

The Dual-Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test (DARHT) facility is adding a weather enclosure for the vessel area that will require the Detonation Science and Technology Group’s (Q-6) support for installing new cabling infrastructure to support capacitive discharge unit (CDU) firing operations and diagnostics. The requirement’s work scope is described in Q-6-TR-0034U*, Q-6 Support for the DARHT Weather Enclosure Upgrade Project, Customer Requirements Review (CRR).

42 ENGINEERING↗

Developing Subgrantee Administrative Training for the Weatherization Assistance Program

During Fiscal Years (FY) 2019 and 2020, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed a series of online trainings for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) to support Subgrantee administrative professionals. NREL and its subcontractor developed a series of online administrative trainings for WAP Subgrantees. In total, 29 administrative training courses were developed for WAP Subgrantees, focused on the following job roles: Weatherization Director, Fiscal Manage, Quality Assurance Manager. As of September 8, 2020, 2,840 users in nearly all WAP Grantee jurisdictions had registered with the learning management system and completed over 23,000 courses. This report provides a summary of the development process, rollout, and outreach to the WAP network, user response, and lessons learned.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

LA100 Equity Strategies. Chapter 7: Housing Weatherization and Resilience

The LA100 Equity Strategies project integrates community guidance with robust research, modeling, and analysis to identify strategy options that can increase equitable outcomes in Los Angeles' clean energy transition. This chapter focuses on housing weatherization and access to cooling as means to achieve more equitable resilience to heat waves during unplanned power outages. Specifically, NREL used weather, housing, and socioeconomic data to characterize LA's residential building stock. We?developed a residential building stock model to simulate the energy use of 50,000 dwellings representing the diversity of housing types, appliances, climate zones, and household incomes across Los Angeles. We then simulated and evaluated the impacts of 10 building envelope and cooling upgrades on indoor temperature - a main cause of heat-induced health risks-over a 4-day power outage during a heat wave. We examined occupant exposure to extreme heat and how heat exposure changes with each upgrade across income, tenure (renter/owner status), building type, and disadvantaged community (DAC) status. We also examined upgrade costs and utility bills. Based on the results of our analysis and community guidance, we identified building envelope upgrades and cooling strategies that could save lives and maintain safe home temperatures for LA's low-income households in the event of a planned or unplanned power outage during a summer heat wave. Research was guided by input from the community engagement process, and associated equity strategies are presented in alignment with that guidance.

building envelope↗

Electric Vehicle and Charging Infrastructure Assessment in Cold-Weather Climates: A Case Study of Fairbanks, Alaska

The purpose of this report is to determine the effects that extreme cold temperatures have on electric vehicles (EVs) and electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE). The adoption of EVs in extreme cold weather presents challenges that require careful analysis of efficiency and charging infrastructure. This report, "Electric Vehicle and Charging Infrastructure Assessment in Cold-Weather Climates: A Case Study of Fairbanks, Alaska," explores how EVs and EVSE perform in temperatures as low as -40 degrees C (-40 degrees F), focusing on real-world data from Teslas in Alaskan winter conditions. The findings indicate that EVs can successfully function in extreme cold, though efficiency is significantly affected. Vehicles stored in heated environments outperformed those stored outdoors, with efficiency dropping by up to 69% for outdoor storage. Despite these challenges, none of the vehicles experienced failures that prevented travel. Storing EVs indoors led to benefits such as faster preconditioning and improved efficiency, while charging in extreme cold, though slower, remained functional. Ultimately, the report concludes that with proper precautions and best practices, EVs are viable transportation solutions in cold climates. Investing in enclosed, heated storage is recommended to maximize efficiency and minimize battery strain. As advancements in battery chemistry and thermal management progress, EV adoption in extreme climates is expected to become even more feasible.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗