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At least 937 records · Page 52

Assessments of Total Lightning Data Utility in Weather Forecasting

National Weather Service forecasters in Huntsville, Alabama have had access to total lightning data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) since 2003. Forecasters can monitor real-time total lightning observations on their AWIPS (Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) workstations. The lightning data is used to supplement other observations such as radar and satellite data. The lightning data is updated every 2 min, providing more timely evidence of storm growth or decay than is available from 5 min radar scans. Total lightning observations have been used to positively impact warning decisions in a number of instances. A number of approaches are being pursued to assess the usefulness of total lightning measurements to the operational forecasting community in the warning decision process. These approaches, which include both qualitative and quantitative assessment methods, will be discussed. submitted to the American Meteorological Society (AMS) Conference on Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data to be held in San Diego, CA January 9-13,2005. This will be a presentation and an extended abstract will be published on a CD available from the AMS.

Buechler, Dennis E.↗

The SMART Cables Initiative for Ocean and Geophysical Observing [Slides]

SMART Cables are becoming a reality, and have the potential to revolutionize submarine oceanographic and geophysical sensing. Pilot / demonstration projects are underway to test the technology and explore the feasibility of incorporating both in-repeater standardized sensor packets but also ancillary sensor types on external, branching nodes. The projects currently in planning will set the standard and influence the norms for the future of SMART systems. The interest of all potential stakeholders and users, and input as to needs and concerns, is welcomed as testing proceeds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integration of the Total Lightning Jump Algorithm into Current Operational Warning Environment Conceptual Models

The presence and rates of total lightning are both correlated to and physically dependent upon storm updraft strength, mixed phase precipitation volume and the size of the charging zone. The updraft modulates the ingredients necessary for electrification within a thunderstorm, while the updraft also plays a critical role in the development of severe and hazardous weather. Therefore utilizing this relationship, the monitoring of lightning rates and jumps provides an additional piece of information on the evolution of a thunderstorm, more often than not, at higher temporal resolution than current operational radar systems. This correlation is the basis for the total lightning jump algorithm that has been developed in recent years. Currently, the lightning jump algorithm is being tested in two separate but important efforts. Schultz et al. (2014; AMS 10th Satellite Symposium) is exploring the transition of the algorithm from its research based formulation to a fully objective algorithm that includes storm tracking, Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) Proxy data and the lightning jump algorithm. Chronis et al. (2014; this conference) provides context for the transition to current operational forecasting using lightning mapping array based products. However, what remains is an end to end physical and dynamical basis for relating lightning rates to severe storm manifestation, so the forecaster has a reason beyond simple correlation to utilize the lightning jump algorithm within their severe storm conceptual models. Therefore, the physical basis for the lightning jump algorithm in relation to severe storm dynamics and microphysics is a key component that must be further explored. Many radar studies have examined flash rates and their relation to updraft strength, updraft volume, precipitation‐sized ice mass, etc.; however, relation specifically to lightning jumps is fragmented within the literature. Thus the goal of this study is to use multiple Doppler techniques to resolve the physical and dynamical storm characteristics specifically around the time of the lightning jump. This information will help forecasters anticipate lightning jump occurrence, or even be of use to determine future characteristics of a given storm (e.g., development of a mesocyclone, downdraft, or hail signature on radar), providing additional lead time/confidence in the severe storm warning paradigm.

Shultz, Christopher J.↗

Late-time small body disruptions for planetary defense

Here, diverting hazardous small bodies on impact trajectories with the Earth can in some circumstances be impossible without risking disrupting them. Disruption is a much more difficult planetary defense scenario to assess, being linked both to the response of the body to shock loading and the much more complicated gravitational dynamics of the fragments in the solar system relative to pure deflection scenarios. In this work we present a new simulation suite built on N-body gravitational methods that solves fragment orbits in the full gravitational system without recourse to more approximate methods. We assess the accuracy of our simulations and the simplifying assumptions we adopt to make the system tractable, and then discuss in more detail several specific, plausible planetary defense scenarios based on real close encounters. We find that disruption can be a very effective planetary defense strategy even for very late (sub-year) interventions, and should be considered an effective backup strategy should preferred methods, which require long warning times, fail.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Intruder Detector

The shadowy prowler is attempting a break-in, unaware that his presence has already been detected and reported by the device in the lower left corner of the photo. It is part of a three-element ntruder Detecti on System developed by NASA's Ames Research Center from technology acquired in the Apollo lunar exploration program. Apollo astronauts left behind on the moon small portable seismic (shock) detectors to record subsurface vibrations and transmit to Earth data on the moon's density and thickness. A similar seismic detector is the key component of the lntruder Detection System. Encased in a stainless steel tube, the detector is implanted in the ground outside the facility being protected-home, bank, industrial or other facilities. The vibration-sensing detector picks up the footstep of anyone within a preset range. The detector is connected by cable to the transmitter, which relays the warning to a portable radio receiver. The radio alerts plant guards or home occupants by emitting an audible tone burst for each footstep.

Source record↗

MSLICE Sequencing

MSLICE Sequencing is a graphical tool for writing sequences and integrating them into RML files, as well as for producing SCMF files for uplink. When operated in a testbed environment, it also supports uplinking these SCMF files to the testbed via Chill. This software features a free-form textural sequence editor featuring syntax coloring, automatic content assistance (including command and argument completion proposals), complete with types, value ranges, unites, and descriptions from the command dictionary that appear as they are typed. The sequence editor also has a "field mode" that allows tabbing between arguments and displays type/range/units/description for each argument as it is edited. Color-coded error and warning annotations on problematic tokens are included, as well as indications of problems that are not visible in the current scroll range. "Quick Fix" suggestions are made for resolving problems, and all the features afforded by modern source editors are also included such as copy/cut/paste, undo/redo, and a sophisticated find-and-replace system optionally using regular expressions. The software offers a full XML editor for RML files, which features syntax coloring, content assistance and problem annotations as above. There is a form-based, "detail view" that allows structured editing of command arguments and sequence parameters when preferred. The "project view" shows the user s "workspace" as a tree of "resources" (projects, folders, and files) that can subsequently be opened in editors by double-clicking. Files can be added, deleted, dragged-dropped/copied-pasted between folders or projects, and these operations are undoable and redoable. A "problems view" contains a tabular list of all problems in the current workspace. Double-clicking on any row in the table opens an editor for the appropriate sequence, scrolling to the specific line with the problem, and highlighting the problematic characters. From there, one can invoke "quick fix" as described above to resolve the issue. Once resolved, saving the file causes the problem to be removed from the problem view.

Crockett, Thomas M.↗

Vertical instability forecasting and controllability assessment of multi-device tokamak plasmas in DECAF with data-driven optimization

Abstract Reliable vertical position control will be an essential element of any future tokamak-based fusion power plant in order to reduce disruptions and maximize performance. We investigate methods to improve vertical controllability boundary determination in plasma operational space and demonstrate a data-driven approach based on direct pseudoinversion of operational space data that is rigorously quantitative, applicable in real-time plasma control systems, and physically intuitive to interpret. Applied to historical shot data from entire run campaigns on the MAST-U, KSTAR, and NSTX tokamaks, this approach, implemented in DECAF, improves vertical displacement event identification accuracy to 98.9%–100%. Further, we explore the application of a physics-based vertical stability metric as an early warning forecaster for vertical displacement events. The development of a linear surrogate model for the plasma current density profile, with a coefficient of determination of 0.992 on the training dataset, enables potential employment of this forecaster in real-time. The application of this approach on historical data from the MAST-U MU02 campaign yields a forecaster with 62.6% accuracy, indicating promise for this method when further refined and potentially coupled with other stability metrics.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Radar/radiometer facilities for precipitation measurements

The OSU ElectroScience Laboratory Radar/Radiometer Facilities are described. This instrumentation includes a high-resolution radar/radiometer system, a fully automated low-resolution radar system, and a small surveillance radar system. The high-resolution radar/radiometer system operates at 3, 9, and 15 GHz using two 9.1 m and one 4.6 m parabolic antennas, respectively. The low-resolution and surveillance radars operate at 9 and 15 GHz, respectively. Both the high- and low-resolution systems are interfaced to real-time digital processing and recording systems. This capability was developed for the measurement of the temporal and spatial characteristics of precipitation in conjunction with millimeter wavelength propagation studies utilizing the Advanced Technology Satellites. Precipitation characteristics derived from these measurements could also be of direct benefit in such diverse areas as: the atmospheric sciences, meteorology, water resources, flood control and warning, severe storm warning, agricultural crop studies, and urban and regional planning.

Hodge, D. B.↗

Real-Time Bayesian Inference at Extreme Scale: A Digital Twin for Tsunami Early Warning Applied to the Cascadia Subduction Zone

We present a Bayesian inversion-based digital twin that employs acoustic pressure data from seafloor sensors, along with 3D coupled acoustic–gravity wave equations, to infer earthquake-induced spatiotemporal seafloor motion in real time and forecast tsunami propagation toward coastlines for early warning with quantified uncertainties. Our target is the Cascadia subduction zone, with one billion parameters. Computing the posterior mean alone would require 50 years on a 512 GPU machine. Instead, exploiting the shift invariance of the parameter-to-observable map and devising novel parallel algorithms, we induce a fast offline–online decomposition. The offline component requires just one adjoint wave propagation per sensor; using MFEM, we scale this part of the computation to the full El Capitan system (43,520 GPUs) with 92% weak parallel efficiency. Moreover, given real-time data, the online component exactly solves the Bayesian inverse and forecasting problems in 0.2 seconds on a modest GPU system, a ten-billion-fold speedup.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An Operational Assessment of the MODIS False Color Composite with the Great Falls, Montana National Weather Service

The close and productive collaborations between the NWS Warning and Forecast Office (WFO) in Great Falls, MT and the Short Term Prediction and Research Transition (SPORT) Center at NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center have provided a unique opportunity for science sharing and technology transfer. In particular, SPoRT has provided a false color composite product derived from MODIS data, which is part of NASA's Earth Observing System. This product is designed to delineate snow and ice covered ground, bare ground and clouds. The Great Falls WFO has been a test bed of the MODIS false color composite as a tool in operations to monitor the development and dissipation of snow cover In particular, preliminary applications have shown that the product can be used to monitor snow cover in remote locations as well as ice in rivers. This information can lead to improved assessments of flooding potential during post event conditions where rapid melting and runoff are anticipated. The potential of this product on future geostationary satellites may substantially contribute to the NWS mission by providing enhanced situational awareness. The operational use of this product has been transitioned at WFO Great Falls through a process of product implementation, discussions with the service hydrologist and forecasters, and post event analysis. A concentrated assessment period from January to March, 2008 was initiated to investigate the impact of the MODIS false color product on WFO Great Falls' operations. This presentation will emphasize the impact the MODIS false color product had in the WFO's situational awareness and how best this information can be used to influence operational decisions.

Loss, GIna↗

The North Alabama Severe Thunderstorm Observations, Research, and Monitoring Network (STORMnet)

The Severe Thunderstorm Observations, Research, and Monitoring network (STORMnet) became operational in 2001 as a test bed to infuse new science and technologies into the severe and hazardous weather forecasting and warning process. STORMnet is collaboration among NASA scientists, National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters, emergency managers and other partners. STORMnet integrates total lightning observations from a ten-station 3-D VHF regional lightning mapping array, the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), real-time regional NEXRAD Doppler radar, satellite visible and infrared imagers, and a mobile atmospheric profiling system to characterize storms and their evolution. The storm characteristics and life-cycle trending are accomplished in real-time through the second generation Lightning Imaging Sensor Demonstration and Display (LISDAD II), a distributed processing system with a JAVA-based display application that allows anyone, anywhere to track individual storm histories within the Tennessee Valley region of north Alabama and Tennessee, a region of the southeastern U.S. well known for abundant severe weather.

Goodman, S. J.↗

UAS Pilot Performance Comparisons with Different Low Size, Weight and Power Sensor Ranges

The present study evaluated the performance of UAS pilots under four simulated low size, weight, and power (SwaP) sensor ranges: 1.5nmi, 2.0nmi, 2.5nmi, and 3.0nmi. Nine active-duty UAS pilots responded to scripted DAA conflicts against non-cooperative intruders while flying a simulated RQ-7 Shadow at varied speeds along a pre-filed flight path in Class E airspace. Findings revealed a linear effect of sensor range on alerting time and separation performance, with nearly every DAA well clear (DWC) violation and all Near Mid-Air Collision (NMAC) events occurring below 2.5nmi. Response time differences at these reduced ranges were negligible due to the high frequency of warning-level alerts that require an immediate response. Since caution alert duration was truncated to some degree by each tested declaration range, pilots were often unable to coordinate their avoidance maneuvers with ATC prior to their uploads. Nonetheless, the 2.5nmi range allowed minimum alerting times that were sufficient for acceptable pilot performance. These findings will inform DAA system requirements for UAS with alternative surveillance equipment and aircraft performance capabilities. Implications on DAA display and sensor requirements are discussed.

unmanned aircraft systems↗

UAS Pilot Performance Comparisons with Different Low Size, Weight and Power Sensor Ranges

The present study evaluated the performance of UAS pilots under four simulated low size, weight, and power (SwaP) sensor ranges: 1.5nmi, 2.0nmi, 2.5nmi, and 3.0nmi. Nine active-duty UAS pilots responded to scripted DAA conflicts against non-cooperative intruders while flying a simulated RQ-7 Shadow at varied speeds along a pre-filed flight path in Class E airspace. Findings revealed a linear effect of sensor range on alerting time and separation performance, with nearly every DAA well clear (DWC) violation and all Near Mid-Air Collision (NMAC) events occurring below 2.5nmi. Response time differences at these reduced ranges were negligible due to the high frequency of warning-level alerts that require an immediate response. Since caution alert duration was truncated to some degree by each tested declaration range, pilots were often unable to coordinate their avoidance maneuvers with ATC prior to their uploads. Nonetheless, the 2.5nmi range allowed minimum alerting times that were sufficient for acceptable pilot performance. These findings will inform DAA system requirements for UAS with alternative surveillance equipment and aircraft performance capabilities. Implications on DAA display and sensor requirements are discussed.

unmanned aircraft systems↗

Sensor-Only System Identification for Structural Health Monitoring of Advanced Aircraft

Environmental conditions, cyclic loading, and aging contribute to structural wear and degradation, and thus potentially catastrophic events. The challenge of health monitoring technology is to determine incipient changes accurately and efficiently. This project addresses this challenge by developing health monitoring techniques that depend only on sensor measurements. Since actively controlled excitation is not needed, sensor-to-sensor identification (S2SID) provides an in-flight diagnostic tool that exploits ambient excitation to provide advance warning of significant changes. S2SID can subsequently be followed up by ground testing to localize and quantify structural changes. The conceptual foundation of S2SID is the notion of a pseudo-transfer function, where one sensor is viewed as the pseudo-input and another is viewed as the pseudo-output, is approach is less restrictive than transmissibility identification and operational modal analysis since no assumption is made about the locations of the sensors relative to the excitation.

Kukreja, Sunil L.↗

The Use of the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) in the Real-Time Operational Warning Environment During the March 2nd, 2012 Severe Weather Outbreak in Northern Alabama

The North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) is a three-dimensional very high frequency (VHF) detection network consisting of 11 sensors spread across north central Alabama and two sensors located in the Atlanta, Georgia region. The primary advantage of this network is that it detects total lightning, or the combination of both cloud-to-ground and intra-cloud lightning, instead of cloud-to-ground lightning alone. This helps to build a complete picture of storm evolution and development, and can serve as a proxy for storm updraft strength, particularly since intra-cloud lightning makes up the majority of all lightning in a typical thunderstorm. While the NALMA data do not directly indicate severe weather, they can indirectly indicate when a storm is strengthening (weakening) due to increases (decreases) in updraft strength, as the updraft is responsible for charging mechanisms within the storm. Data output are VHF radiation sources, which are produced during lightning breakdown processes. These sources are made into 2x2 km source density grids and are ported into the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) for National Weather Service (NWS) offices in Huntsville, AL, Nashville, TN, Morristown, TN, and Birmingham, AL, in near real-time. An increase in sources, or source densities, correlates to increased lightning activity and trends in updraft magnitude as long as the storm is within about 125 km of the center of the LMA network. Operationally, these data have been used at the Huntsville NWS office since early 2003 through a collaborative effort with NASA s Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center. Since then, total lightning observations have become an essential tool for forecasters during real-time warning operations. One of the operational advantages of the NALMA is the two-minute temporal resolution of the data. This provides forecasters with two to three updates during a typical volume scan of the WSR-88D radar.

White, Kristopher↗

A cycle timer for testing electric vehicles

The paper presents a cycle timer which enables the accurate following and repetition of SAE driving schedules of stop and go cycles, for electric vehicles, by reducing the human factor. The system which consists of a programmable read-only memory (PROM) stores each of these cycles, which are detailed, on its own plug-in card. The actual vehicle speed, and the PROM indicated desired speed are displayed on a dual scale meter allowing the driver to match them. A speed change is preceded by a half second buzzer warning and a new cycle by a one second warning. The PROM controls the recycle start time as well as the buzzer activation. A 5 volt regulator providing logic power, and a 12 volt dc-dc converter providing analog and memory power are described.

Soltis, R. F.↗

The North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array: Recent Results and Future Prospects

The North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array became operational in November 2001 as a principal component of a severe weather test bed to infuse new science and technologies into the short-term forecasting of severe and hazardous weather and the warning decision-making process. The LMA project is a collaboration among NASA scientists, National Weather Service (NWS) weather forecast offices (WFOs), emergency managers, and other partners. The time rate-of-change of storm characteristics and life-cycle trending are accomplished in real-time through the second generation Lightning Imaging Sensor Data Applications Display (LISDAD II) system, initially developed in T997 through a collaboration among NASA/MSFC, MIT/Lincoln Lab and the Melbourne, FL WFO. LISDAD II is now a distributed decision support system with a JAVA-based display application that allows anyone, anywhere to track individual storm histories within the Tennessee Valley region of the southeastern U.S. Since the inauguration of the LMA there has been an abundance of severe weather. During 23-24 November 2001, a major tornado outbreak was monitored by LMA in its first data acquisition effort (36 tornadoes in Alabama). Since that time the LMA has collected a vast amount of data on hailstorms and damaging wind events, non-tornadic supercells, and ordinary non-severe thunderstorms. In this paper we provide an overview of LMA observations and discuss future prospects for improving the short-term forecasting of convective weather.

Goodman, S. J.↗

UAS Pilot Performance Comparisons with Different Low Size, Weight and Power Sensor Ranges

The present study evaluated the performance of UAS pilots under four simulated low size, weight, and power (SwaP) sensor ranges: 1.5nmi, 2.0nmi, 2.5nmi, and 3.0nmi. Nine active-duty UAS pilots responded to scripted DAA conflicts against non-cooperative intruders while flying a simulated RQ-7 Shadow at varied speeds along a pre-filed flight path in Class E airspace. Findings revealed a linear effect of sensor range on alerting time and separation performance, with nearly every DAA well clear (DWC) violation and all Near Mid-Air Collision (NMAC) events occurring below 2.5nmi. Response time differences at these reduced ranges were negligible due to the high frequency of warning-level alerts that require an immediate response. Since caution alert duration was truncated to some degree by each tested declaration range, pilots were often unable to coordinate their avoidance maneuvers with ATC prior to their uploads. Nonetheless, the 2.5nmi range allowed minimum alerting times that were sufficient for acceptable pilot performance. The study findings will inform DAA system requirements for UAS with alternative surveillance equipment and aircraft performance capabilities. Implications on DAA display and sensor requirements are discussed.

unmanned aircraft systems↗