SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Uncertainty analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 937 records · Page 52

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2026

Computationally inexpensive part-scale thermal history of additive friction-stir deposition

This study presents an analytical model for steady-state power generation and tool heat loss in additive friction-stir deposition (AFSD), developed to enable part-scale thermal simulation while remaining computationally inexpensive. The model predicts total generated power, yielding 3.7–4.7 kW across deposition temperature setpoints of 400–460 °C for the deposition of AA6061 with a Be-Cu tool. This corresponds to 90–95% of the reported spindle power. Tool heat loss is experimentally determined by calibrating a steady-state energy balance between the generated power, the substrate-deposition thermal gradient, and a temperature dependent tool heat loss term: q tool (T) = a + b (T - 400°C) with a = 2.7 x 10 6 Wm -2 and b = 9.5 x 10 3 Wm -2 K -1 . The calibration indicates that about 69% of the generated heat is conducted into the tool for this configuration, which is much higher than previously reported. The calibrated heat-source is implemented in finite element software (Adamantine) to simulate the transient thermal history of a 100 cm 3 representative build in 8 min on a standard desktop (at 0.635 mm build-height resolution). For the first three layers, the substrate temperatures between simulation and experiment are within 10% mean absolute percentage error. Sensitivity analysis indicates that uncertainties in average deposition temperature and deformation localization (stir-zone geometry, depth, and spatial dependance of strain-rate and flow stress) dominate model variance, motivating additional experimental verification.

Additive Friction-Stir Deposition↗

DOE OSTI2025

Revisiting a minimally destructive analytic approach for determining electrochemical kinetic parameters: Measuring aluminum corrosion across a wide pH range based on the Butler-Volmer equation

Here, this study revisits the three-point sampling of the simplified Butler-Volmer equation to address the limitations of strong potentiodynamic polarization, which can introduce irreversible damage and uncertainty in corrosion analysis. The method extracts electrochemical kinetic parameters while minimizing polarization effects, evaluates noise sensitivity relative to overpotential, and accounts for errors from signal noise, OCP drift, ohmic resistance, and mass-transfer constraints. Verified against the Tafel extrapolation method for aluminum corrosion across a wide pH range, this low-polarization approach enables accurate evaluations with specific error estimates, offering a robust alternative to linear polarization resistance methods that assume constant Tafel slopes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Detailed temperature diagnostic studies for Radishock and COAX experiments

Spectral diagnostics provide a powerful probe of high energy-density physics experiments. By shining an x-ray source on a target, absorption features can be used to determine accurate temperature profiles of that target material. Many studies produce a single temperature/density measurement by fitting these observed spectra. This paper demonstrates how, by leveraging detailed simulations, we can not only measure the average temperature and density, but the full density and temperature profiles. To do so, we must conduct a careful analysis of the uncertainties in the diagnostic measurement. Here we discuss the characteristics and associated uncertainties of the spectral diagnostic used in the COAX, Radishock and OuTi experiments, ultimately demonstrating how these detailed studies increase the potential of this powerful probe.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Primer on Dose-Response Data Modeling in Radiation Therapy

An overview of common approaches used to assess a dose response for radiation therapy–associated endpoints is presented, using lung toxicity data sets analyzed as a part of the High Dose per Fraction, Hypofractionated Treatment Effects in the Clinic effort as an example. Each component presented (eg, data-driven analysis, dose-response analysis, and calculating uncertainties on model prediction) is addressed using established approaches. Specifically, the maximum likelihood method was used to calculate best parameter values of the commonly used logistic model, the profile-likelihood to calculate confidence intervals on model parameters, and the likelihood ratio to determine whether the observed data fit is statistically significant. The bootstrap method was used to calculate confidence intervals for model predictions. Correlated behavior of model parameters and implication for interpreting dose response are discussed.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Creating high-precision reference gas standards of 85Kr for groundwater age-dating

Absolute gas counting (AGC) was applied to two gas blends of 85Kr in argon-methane (P10) counting gas to establish a high-precision specific activity (Bq/cm3) reference value for characterizing 85Kr detection efficiency for groundwater age dating measurements. The AGC or length-compensated technique has been utilized by the metrology community for decades and is an accepted method for developing radioactive gas standards. The AGC capability at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) uses a set of nine unequal-length proportional counters with precisely-measured internal volumes, and a gas loading system with high-precision pressure and temperature sensors. A series of AGC measurements were collected at multiple pressures to determine the inverse pressure relationship (1/P) for 85Kr and define a wall-effect correction that accounts for events decaying into the detector wall and not depositing sufficient energy in the gas to be detected. In addition to the wall-effect, two additional corrections were evaluated and are discussed in detail. Specifically, the threshold effect which accounts for events deposited below the analysis threshold and a detection efficiency as a function of detector volume effect that was observed during analysis. A robust uncertainty model was developed using the Guide to the expression of Uncertainty in Measurements (GUM) approach. The combination of carefully scrutinized correction factors, precise measurements of pressure, temperature and detector volume, and robust counting statistics resulted in the determination of high-precision specific activity values with 0.50% or less total combined uncertainty for two Kr-in-P10 reference gas standards (KP10) that will enable new groundwater age-dating measurements at PNNL.

Kr-85↗

DOE OSTI2023

Contextually aware roadside radiation measurement testbed

Here we demonstrate a contextually aware multimodal roadside radiation measurement detection testbed for traffic monitoring applications in nuclear nonproliferation. Many variables in traffic such as vehicle or cargo size, mass, speed, shape, and distance of closest approach can have significant impacts on the radiation measured from a vehicle-transported radiation source. These factors can lead to uncertainties in the analysis of the radiation source, especially for lower-strength radiation sources of interest. Our testbed, known as the Multimodal Measurement System (MMS) uses non-radiation sensors including magnetometers, geophones, radiofrequency receivers, cameras, and LiDAR to extract contextual information about vehicles passing by the system. These contextual data can then be fused with data from radiation measurements to increase the system’s sensitivity and accuracy in nuclear threat detection applications. This work describes the instrumentation of the MMS and its data acquisition pipeline. Furthermore, we describe the pre-analysis performed on the raw multimodal data streams for data fusion, and the high-level machine learning analyses for detection and characterization. The variety of sensors within the MMS provides a valuable testbed that can be used to identify the combinations of contextual sensors that provide the greatest improvements to radiation source detection and characterization within the restrictions for various proliferation detection applications. The MMS is also modular so that additional combinations of sensors can be explored in the future.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

A unifying equation for fermentation sustainability across the titer-rate-yield landscape

Industrial fermentation is central to the sustainable production of fuels and chemicals, yet commercial viability of emerging technologies hinges on improving fermentation titer, rate, and yield (TRY). How these metrics shape system cost remains difficult to generalize due to complex interactions among feedstocks, fermentation, separations, catalytic upgrading, waste management, and facility design. Here, we systematically map theoretical fermentation performance spaces (formed by all potential TRY combinations) for 32 representative biomanufacturing facilities—spanning distinct choices for feedstocks, fermentation regimes and products, separations, and catalytic upgrading—by simulating and evaluating them (via techno-economic analysis, TEA) under uncertainty (600,000 Monte Carlo simulations) and across TRY combinations (7500 TRY combinations for each of 32 configurations). Across this wide design and thermodynamic simulation space, we find the relationship between fermentation TRY and system cost is captured by a simple, generalizable mathematical equation (R 2 of 0.992 − 1.000 across our simulations; 0.954 − 1.000 when validated against prior studies that used different tools). We use this equation to elucidate key drivers that shape cost sensitivity to fermentation performance, generating widely applicable insights. By demonstrating a unifying relationship governs the impact of fermentation on biomanufacturing economics, this work establishes a foundation for agile, holistically predictive, resource-efficient strategies to prioritize fermentation research and development needs and accelerate commercialization of emerging biomanufacturing technologies.

applied mathematics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Projected U.S. drought extremes through the twenty-first century with vapor pressure deficit

Global warming is expected to enhance drought extremes in the United States throughout the twenty-first century. Projecting these changes can be complex in regions with large variability in atmospheric and soil moisture on small spatial scales. Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD) is a valuable measure of evaporative demand as moisture moves from the surface into the atmosphere and a dynamic measure of drought. Here, VPD is used to identify short-term drought with the Standardized VPD Drought Index (SVDI); and used to characterize future extreme droughts using grid dependent stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) models, and a random sampling technique is developed to quantify multimodel uncertainties. The GEV analysis was performed with projections using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, downscaled from three Global Climate Models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for present, mid-century and late-century. Results show the VPD based index (SVDI) accurately identifies the timing and magnitude short-term droughts, and extreme VPD is increasing across the United States and by the end of the twenty-first century. The number of days VPD is above 9 kPa increases by 10 days along California’s coastline, 30–40 days in the northwest and Midwest, and 100 days in California’s Central Valley.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

A general framework for quantifying uncertainty at scale

Abstract In many fields of science, comprehensive and realistic computational models are available nowadays. Often, the respective numerical calculations call for the use of powerful supercomputers, and therefore only a limited number of cases can be investigated explicitly. This prevents straightforward approaches to important tasks like uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. This challenge can be overcome via our recently developed sensitivity-driven dimension-adaptive sparse grid interpolation strategy. The method exploits, via adaptivity, the structure of the underlying model (such as lower intrinsic dimensionality and anisotropic coupling of the uncertain inputs) to enable efficient and accurate uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis at scale. Here, we demonstrate the efficiency of this adaptive approach in the context of fusion research, in a realistic, computationally expensive scenario of turbulent transport in a magnetic confinement tokamak device with eight uncertain parameters, reducing the effort by at least two orders of magnitude. In addition, we show that this refinement method intrinsically provides an accurate surrogate model that is nine orders of magnitude cheaper than the high-fidelity model.

Farcaş, Ionuţ-Gabriel (ORCID:0000000238841580)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Planck constraints on the tensor-to-scalar ratio

In this work, we present constraints on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r using Planck data. We use the latest release of Planck maps (PR4), processed with the NPIPE code, which produces calibrated frequency maps in temperature and polarization for all Planck channels from 30 GHz to 857 GHz using the same pipeline. We computed constraints on r using the BB angular power spectrum, and we also discuss constraints coming from the TT spectrum. Given Planck's noise level, the TT spectrum gives constraints on r that are cosmic-variance limited (with $\sigma$ r = 0.093), but we show that the marginalized posterior peaks towards negative values of r at about the 1.2$\sigma$ level. We derived Planck constraints using the BB power spectrum at both large angular scales (the 'reionization bump') and intermediate angular scales (the 'recombination bump') from $\ell$=2 to 150, and find a stronger constraint than that from TT, with $\sigma$ r = 0.069. The Planck BB spectrum shows no systematic bias, and is compatible with zero, given both the statistical noise and the systematic uncertainties. The likelihood analysis using B modes yields the constraint r < 0.158 at 95% confidence using more than 50% of the sky. This upper limit tightens to r < 0.069 when Planck EE, BB, and EB power spectra are combined consistently, and it tightens further to r < 0.056 when the Planck TT power spectrum is included in the combination. Finally, combining Planck with BICEP2/Keck 2015 data yields an upper limit of r < 0.044.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Magnetars and axion-like particles: probes with the hard X-ray spectrum

Quiescent hard X-ray and soft gamma-ray emission from neutron stars constitute a promising frontier to explore axion-like-particles (ALPs). ALP production in the core peaks at energies of a few keV to a few hundreds of keV; subsequently, the ALPs escape and convert to photons in the magnetosphere. The emissivity goes as ~T 6 while the conversion probability is enhanced for large magnetic fields, making magnetars, with their high core temperatures and strong magnetic fields, ideal targets for probing ALPs. We compute the energy spectrum of photons resulting from conversion of ALPs in the magnetosphere and then compare it against hard X-ray data from NuSTAR, INTEGRAL, and XMM-Newton, for a set of eight magnetars for which such data exists. Upper limits are placed on the product of the ALP-nucleon and ALP-photon couplings. For the production in the core, we perform a calculation of the ALP emissivity in degenerate nuclear matter modeled by a relativistic mean field theory. The reduction of the emissivity due to improvements to the one-pion exchange approximation is incorporated, as is the suppression of the emissivity due to proton superfluidity in the neutron star core. A range of core temperatures is considered, corresponding to different models of the steady heat transfer from the core to the stellar surface. For the subsequent conversion, we solve the coupled differential equations mixing ALPs and photons in the magnetosphere. The conversion occurs due to a competition between the dipolar magnetic field and the photon refractive index induced by the external magnetic field. Semi-analytic expressions are provided alongside the full numerical results. Furthermore, we also present an analysis of the uncertainty on the axion limits we derive due to the uncertainties in the magnetar masses, nuclear matter equation of state, and the proton superfluid critical temperature.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Strangeness in the proton from $W+$ charm production and SIDIS data

We perform a global QCD analysis of unpolarized parton distribution functions (PDFs) in the proton, including new 𝑊+⁢ charm production data from 𝑝⁢𝑝 collisions at the LHC and semi-inclusive pion and kaon production data in lepton-nucleon deep-inelastic scattering, both of which have been suggested for constraining the strange quark PDF. Compared with a baseline global fit that does not include these datasets, the new analysis reduces the uncertainty on the strange quark distribution over the range 0.01 < 𝑥 < 0.3, and provides a consistent description of processes sensitive to strangeness in the proton. Including the new datasets, the ratio of strange to nonstrange sea quark distributions is $R_s = (s + \bar{s})/(\bar{u} +\bar{d})$ $=$ {$0.7⁢2^{+0.52}_{−0.34}, 0.4⁢6^{+0.30}_{−0.20}, 0.3⁢2^{+0.23}_{−0.15}$} for 𝑥 ={$0.01, 0.04, 0.1$} at 𝑄 2 $=$ 4 GeV 2 . The data place more stringent constraints on the strange asymmetry $(s - \bar{s})$, which is found to be consistent with zero in this range.

Anderson, Trey [College of William and Mary, Willi↗

DOE OSTI2025

16 O Electroweak Response Functions from First Principles

We present calculations of various electroweak response functions for the 16 O nucleus obtained using coupled-cluster theory in conjunction with the Lorentz integral transform method. We employ nuclear forces derived at next-to-leading order and next-to-next-to-leading order in chiral effective field theory and perform a Bayesian analysis to assess uncertainties. Our results are in good agreement with available electron-scattering data at |𝐪|≈326 MeV/c. Additionally, we provide several predictions for the weak response functions in the quasielastic peak region at |𝐪| =300 and 400 MeV/c, which are critical for long-baseline neutrino experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning assisted unfolding for neutrino cross-section measurements with the OmniFold technique

The choice of unfolding method for a cross-section measurement is tightly coupled to the model dependence of the efficiency correction and the overall impact of cross-section modeling uncertainties in the analysis. A key issue is the dimensionality used in unfolding, as the kinematics of all outgoing particles in an event typically affect the reconstruction performance in a neutrino detector. OmniFold is an unfolding method that iteratively reweights a simulated dataset, using machine learning to utilize arbitrarily high-dimensional information, that has previously been applied to proton-proton and proton-electron datasets. This paper demonstrates OmniFold’s application to a neutrino cross-section measurement for the first time using a public T2K near detector simulated dataset, comparing its performance with traditional approaches using a mock data study.

Machine learning↗

DOE OSTI2026

Difficulties with late-time solutions for the Hubble tension

We explore the notion that cosmological models that modify the late-time expansion history cannot simultaneously fit the SH0ES Collaboration’s measurements of the Hubble constant, Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument baryon acoustic oscillations data, and type Ia supernova distances. Adopting a few simple phenomenological models, we quantitatively demonstrate that a satisfactory fit with a model with late-time expansion history can only be achieved if one of the following is true: (1) there is a sharp step in the absolute magnitude of type Ia supernovae at very low redshift, 𝑧 ∼0.01, or (2) the distance duality relation, 𝑑 𝐿 ⁡(𝑧) =(1+𝑧) 2 ⁢𝑑 𝐴 ⁡(𝑧), is broken. Both solutions are trivial in that they effectively decouple the calibrated type Ia supernovae measurements from other data, and this qualitatively agrees with previous work built on studying specific dark-energy models. We also identify a less effective class of late-time solutions with a transition at 𝑧 ≃0.15 that lead to a more modest improvement in fit to the data than models with a very low-𝑧 transition. Our conclusions are largely unchanged when we include surface brightness fluctuation distance measurements, with their current systematic uncertainties, to our analysis. Here, we finally illustrate our findings by studying a physical model which, when equipped with the ability to smoothly change the absolute magnitude of type Ia supernovae, partially resolves the Hubble tension.

Cosmological parameters↗

DOE OSTI2020

U.S. Effort Support to Examinations at Fukushima - Meeting Notes with Updated Information Requests (FY2020)

Much is still not known about the end-state of core materials in each unit that was operating on March 11, 2011 at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (Daiichi). Information obtained from Daiichi is required to inform Decontamination and Decommissioning (D&D) activities, improving the ability of the Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Incorporated (TEPCO Holdings) to characterize potential hazards and to ensure the safety of workers involved with cleanup activities. This document, which has been updated to include Fiscal Year 2020 (FY2020) information, summarizes results from a U.S. effort to review Daiichi information and extract insights to enhance the safety of existing and future nuclear power plant designs. This U.S. effort, which was initiated in 2014 by the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE), is completed by a group of experts in reactor safety and plant operations that identify examination needs and evaluate recent Daiichi examination data to address these needs. Since its inception, comprehensive annual reports were issued that document significant safety insights being obtained in areas of special emphasis: system and component performance, radionuclide surveys and sampling, debris end-state location, combustible gas effects, and plant operations and maintenance. In addition to reducing uncertainties related to severe accident modeling progression, these insights have and continue to be used to update guidance for severe accident prevention, mitigation, and emergency planning. Reduced uncertainties in modeling the events at Daiichi improve the realism of reactor safety evaluations that inform future D&D activities. For FY2020, it was decided that the program would gain more benefit from a more concise report that emphasizes new information and insights that affect prior findings and recommendations from the U.S. experts participating in this effort. A key aspect of prior U.S. efforts, the updated list of information requests, is included in this letter report to ensure that they are transmitted to organizations within Japan. In addition, findings and associated recommendations are provided regarding information presented by TEPCO Holdings, Nuclear Damage Compensation and Decommissioning Facilitation Corporation (NDF), and the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA). This letter report also continues to emphasize how information obtained from the affected reactors at Daiichi has been and will continue to be used to update severe accident management strategies, improve maintenance activities (especially in areas of radiation protection) and reduce uncertainties in systems analysis code models. In addition, recommendations are included that would expand the use of this information to provide insights regarding maintenance, radiation protection, design, and siting activities of existing and new reactors.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

U.S. Efforts in Support of Examinations at Fukushima Daiichi- November 2020 Meeting Notes with Updated Information Requests

Much is still not known about the end-state of core materials in each unit that was operating on March 11, 2011 at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (Daiichi). Information obtained from Daiichi is required to inform Decontamination and Decommissioning (D&D) activities, improving the ability of the Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Incorporated (TEPCO Holdings) to characterize potential hazards and to ensure the safety of workers involved with cleanup activities. This information also has important implications for the safety and operation of U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. This document summarizes results from the Fiscal Year 2021 (FY2021) U.S. effort to review Daiichi information and extract insights to enhance the safety of existing and future nuclear power plant designs. This U.S. effort, which was initiated in 2014 by the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE), is completed by a group of experts in reactor safety and plant operations that identify examination needs and evaluate recent Daiichi examination data to address these needs. Since its inception, annual reports were issued that document significant safety insights being obtained in areas of special emphasis: system and component performance, radionuclide surveys and sampling, debris end-state location, combustible gas effects, and plant operations and maintenance. In addition to reducing uncertainties related to severe accident modeling progression, these insights have and continue to be used to update guidance for severe accident prevention, mitigation, and emergency planning. Reduced uncertainties in modeling the events at Daiichi improve the realism of reactor safety evaluations that inform future D&D activities. A key aspect of prior U.S. efforts, the updated list of information requests, is included in this FY2021 report to ensure that they are transmitted to organizations within Japan. This report also continues to emphasize how information obtained from the affected reactors at Daiichi has been and will continue to be used to update severe accident management strategies and reduce uncertainties in systems analysis code models. In addition, recommendations are included that would expand the use of this information to provide insights regarding maintenance, radiation protection, design, and siting activities for existing and new reactors.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

DECOVALEX-2023, Task F Specification, Revision 8

This report is the revised (Revision 8) Task F specification for DECOVALEX-2023. Task F is a comparison of the models and methods used in deep geologic repository performance assessment. The task proposes to develop a reference case for a mined repository in a fractured crystalline host rock and a reference case for a mined repository in a salt formation. Teams may choose to participate in the comparison for either or both of the reference cases. For each reference case, a common set of conceptual models and parameters describing features, events, and processes that impact performance will be given, and teams will be responsible for determining how best to implement and couple the models. The comparison will be conducted in stages, beginning with a comparison of key outputs of individual process models, followed by a comparison of a single deterministic simulation of the full reference case, and moving on to uncertainty propagation and uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. This report provides background information, a summary of the proposed reference cases, and a staged plan for the analysis.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗