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At least 937 records · Page 52

An Assessment of Non-Powered Dam Hydropower Development Opportunities in the United States

Retrofitting non-powered dams (NPDs) to add hydropower offers multiple benefits over traditional, new hydropower development. Since much of the civil works infrastructure already exists, many retrofits require minimal new construction and can leverage existing water conveyances and discharge for generation. Although NPDs vary considerably in terms of their defining characteristics, identifying similarities helps support targeted investment and find opportunities to develop solutions for common challenges. With the publication of NPD-related data in 2022 (Hansen et al. 2022b), the US Department of Energy and relevant stakeholders are equipped with key information across roughly 89,000 US NPDs. These data represent the best-available information to date and extend beyond previous assessments of potential power capacity by describing design, operational, socioeconomic, environmental aspects of NPDs (Hadjerioua et al. 2012). To capitalize on these efforts to improve breadth and depth of NPD data access, this study uses a data-driven approach to assess NPD hydropower development opportunities in the United States. To help describe project feasibility drivers for NPDs, recent NPD retrofits were reviewed to examine variability with respect to a variety of characteristics. Based on the assessment of recent retrofits and data availability, several attributes were selected to characterize the remaining NPD population: (1) owner type, (2) 30% exceedance flow (a common design flow that describes the flow that is exceeded by 30% of the flow in the record), (3) hydraulic head, and (4) maximum reservoir storage. These four characteristics were used as inputs to a statistical clustering analysis (a common technique for grouping individuals of a population based on similarities or how closely associated individuals are to one another) of a set of 2,709 NPDs with at least 100 kW potential capacity and recently retrofit dams with available data. With the large dataset of NPDs, the clusters help describe how the population breaks down into different types (i.e., how many types of dams there are and what portion of the population belongs to each cluster).

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

LENS: Learning Enabled Network Synthesis

RTRC and UMD have developed novel machine learning based methods under the ARPA-E DIFFERENTIATE program for rapid acceleration of hypothesis generation in complex architecture design spaces involving both discrete choices of component inclusion and interconnection and continuous parametric decisions. The project named Learning Enabled Network Synthesis (LENS) further demonstrated the developed methods on challenging electrical power converter design problems by identifying the most suitable circuit topologies and simultaneously selecting the most appropriate components to achieve optimized design of power converter with improved performances. We demonstrated that LENS could enable exploration of very large design space of circuit topologies and components by addressing the limitations of conventional design process in non-linear, high switching speed, multi-dimensional power converter design and optimization. The key innovation developed in LENS is the seamless integration of statistical learning and logical reasoning techniques and building on the individual strengths of these techniques for rapid hypothesis discovery. The main component of LENS comprises of: 1) Graph Reasoning Engine (GRE) to enforce composition rules that rapidly reject all discrete architectures that are composed incorrectly and generates an adaptive database of feasible designs which can be used by ML modules, 2) Graph Generative Learning module which is a deep neural network based generative model for graph architectures which can enable design space exploration beyond the dataset generated by the GRE, 3) Graph Reduced Order Model (ROM) for graph domains for accelerating computation of output metrics, and 4) Active learning and Rule Discovery module for sample efficient learning and extracting logical rules from the learned ML models which will be integrated in the GRE to enhance the filtering effectiveness. LENS approach can be applied to any design domains where designs can be represented as multi-attribute graphs. The LENS team integrated the various technical innovations listed above into an optimization pipeline and exercised the optimization pipeline on the converter design problem. The LENS project demonstrated that the developed AI/ML technologies can be used to generate novel converter circuits >45x faster than experts on chosen use-cases. This can enable faster design space exploration and identification of new designs which are not considered by experts due to the increasing design space complexity. This has significant potential impact on the public and energy needs of the country. It is currently estimated that 30% of all electrical powers generated passes through power converters. The future estimate is that 80% of all power generated would be passing through converters. LENS fills a critical gap in this space since by accelerating the design process the designers would be able to generate more efficient converters which can lead to significant energy savings for the country.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Graph Neural Networks for Parameterized Quantum Circuits Expressibility Estimation (Rev.1)

Parameterized quantum circuits (PQCs) are fundamental to quantum machine learning (QML), quantum optimization, and variational quantum algorithms (VQAs). The expressibility of PQCs is a measure that determines their capability to harness the full potential of the quantum state space. It is thus a crucial guidepost to know when selecting a particular PQC ansatz. However, the existing technique for expressibility computation through statistical estimation requires a large number of samples, which poses significant challenges due to time and computational resource constraints. This paper introduces a novel approach for expressibility estimation of PQCs using Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). We demonstrate the predictive power of our GNN model with a dataset consisting of 25,000 samples from the noiseless IBM QASM Simulator and 12,000 samples from three distinct noisy quantum backends. The model accurately estimates expressibility, with root mean square errors (RMSE) of 0.05 and 0.06 for the noiseless and noisy backends, respectively. We compare our model’s predictions with reference circuits from Sim et al. and IBM Qiskit’s hardwareefficient ansatz sets to further evaluate our model’s performance. Our experimental evaluation in noiseless and noisy scenarios reveals a close alignment with ground truth expressibility values, highlighting the model’s efficacy. Moreover, our model exhibits promising extrapolation capabilities, predicting expressibility values with low RMSE for out-of-range qubit circuits trained solely on only up to 5-qubit circuit sets. This work thus provides a reliable means of efficiently evaluating the expressibility of diverse PQCs on noiseless simulators and hardware.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Angular Correlation Function Estimators Accounting for Contamination from Probabilistic Distance Measurements

With the advent of surveys containing millions to billions of galaxies, it is imperative to develop analysis techniques that utilize the available statistical power. In galaxy clustering, even small sample contamination arising from distance uncertainties can lead to large artifacts, which the standard estimator for two-point correlation functions does not account for. We first introduce a formalism, termed decontamination, that corrects for sample contamination by utilizing the observed cross-correlations in the contaminated samples; this corrects any correlation function estimator for contamination. Using this formalism, we present a new estimator that uses the standard estimator to measure correlation functions in the contaminated samples but then corrects for contamination. We also introduce a weighted estimator that assigns each galaxy a weight in each redshift bin based on its probability of being in that bin. We demonstrate that these estimators effectively recover the true correlation functions and their covariance matrices. Our estimators can correct for sample contamination caused by misclassification between object types as well as photometric redshifts; they should be particularly helpful for studies of galaxy evolution and baryonic acoustic oscillations, where forward modeling the clustering signal using the contaminated redshift distribution is undesirable.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Wave propagation in a random medium

A simple technique is used to derive statistical characterizations of the perturbations imposed upon a wave (plane, spherical or beamed) propagating through a random medium. The method is essentially physical rather than mathematical, and is probably equivalent to the Rytov method. The limitations of the method are discussed in some detail; in general they are restrictive only for optical paths longer than a few hundred meters, and for paths at the lower microwave frequencies. Situations treated include arbitrary path geometries, finite transmitting and receiving apertures, and anisotropic media. Results include, in addition to the usual statistical quantities, time-lagged functions, mixed functions involving amplitude and phase fluctuations, angle-of-arrival covariances, frequency covariances, and other higher-order quantities.

Lee, R. W.↗

A real time programmable data compression system for video data.

Description of the implementation of a data compression system for the real-time operational transmission (through microwave links) of ATS satellite pictures between the command and data acquisition station and a central location for computer processing. The system features the use of general-purpose minicomputers for encoding and decoding; this makes it possible to vary the employed data compression technique and to make simultaneous statistical calculations on the data. Data compression and expansion is accomplished in a manner that does not lower data quality.

Kutz, R. L.↗

Some after-dinner reflections on system identification

The growth of the field of system identification is discussed along with changes in methodology which have taken place in recent years. The similarity between pattern recognition and system identification is pointed out, involving the modelling in the latter and the feature selection problem in the former. It is stated that once a model is formulated, including the disturbances and measurement errors, the parameter finding can be formulated as a statistical estimation problem. The various techniques and their application are discussed.

Balakrishnan, A. V.↗

Utilization of satellite data for inventorying prairie ponds and lakes. LANDSAT-1 data were used to discriminate ponds and lakes for waterfowl management

The author has identified the following significant results. The mapping of open water as an indicator of waterfowl habitat quality was carried out by using two different recognition techniques, a single waveband thresholding approach and a multiple waveband approach termed proportion estimation. The single waveband technique has proven simple to implement. Its computer algorithm was rapid and accurately recognized prairie lakes and large ponds. The resultant products of this processing technique were thematic maps and statistical tabulations describing open surface water conditions. The maps served to portray visually the location and frequency of surface water bodies but usually necessitated additional interpretation.

Gilmer, D. S.↗

Statistical analysis

A discussion is presented on the use of statistical analysis to develop a technique that will reliably predict the life of a battery.

Mains, D.↗

Influence of wave dispersion on vortex pairing in a jet

The geometry of large-scale structures in the turbulent mixing layer of a moderate Reynolds number jet is deduced from measurements of the fluctuating pressure in the hydrodynamic near field. The structures are rings of concentrated vorticity that distort with downstream distance until statistical axisymmetry disappears. The rings are spaced quasi-periodically and coalesce with each other, producing larger spacings. Statistical and flow-visualization techniques are applied to free and forced jets over a range of Reynolds numbers from 5000 to 50,000 to demonstrate that rings of a given spacing do not coalesce with each other until they are far enough downstream that the local mixing layer has attained some critical thickness which scales with the wavelength of the vortex pair. Wave dispersion is evaluated as a plausible mechanism for localizing the coalescences. The central feature of the model is the observation that a shear layer is dispersive to wavelengths much longer than its thickness and nondispersive to shorter waves.

Petersen, R. A.↗

A description of the NSSL cases used for a simulated VAS retrieval study

A documentation of eight National Severe Storm Laboratory severe storm cases, which serve as a basis for a simulated VISSR Atmospheric Sounder retrieval study, is presented in this paper. Six of the selected cases provide a control data set to complete the statistical information needed for retrieval techniques based upon the use of regression matrices. The other two cases are to be used in the actual retrieval experiments. The selection was based upon the presence of moisture gradients in the analysis region, the availability of satellite images at the selected time periods, and the extent of cloud cover within the observing network.

Mostek, A.↗

Microwave remote sensing: Active and passive. Volume 2 - Radar remote sensing and surface scattering and emission theory

The fundamental principles of radar backscattering measurements are presented, including measurement statistics, Doppler and pulse discrimination techniques, and associated ambiguity functions. The operation of real and synthetic aperture sidelooking airborne radar systems is described, along with the internal and external calibration techniques employed in scattering measurements. Attention is given to the physical mechanisms responsible for the scattering emission behavior of homogeneous and inhomogeneous media, through a discussion of surface roughness, dielectric properties and inhomogeneity, and penetration depth. Simple semiempirical models are presented. Theoretical models involving greater mathematical sophistication are also given for extended ocean and bare soil surfaces, and the more general case of a vegetation canopy over a rough surface.

Ulaby, F. T.↗

Identifying environmental features for land management decisions

Multivariate statistical analysis and imaging processing techniques are being applied to the study of arid/semiarid environments, with emphasis on desertification. Field level indicators of land-soil biota degradation are being sifted out with staging up to the low aircraft reconnaissance level, to LANDSAT TM & MSS, and even to the AVHRR level. Three completed projects are reviewed: riparian habitat on the Humboldt River floodplain, Salt Lake County Urban expansion detection, and salinization/desertification detection in the delta area. Beginning projects summarized include: comparative condition of rangeland in Rush Valley; modeling a GIS/remote sensing data base for Cache County; universal soil loss equation applied to Pinyon-Juniper; relating MSS to ground radiometry near Battle Mountain; and riparian habitat mapping on Mary's River, Nevada.

Source record↗

Theoretical Studies of the Surface Tension of Liquid Metal System

A major goal of this project is to understand the surface tension and other thermophysical properties of liquid metals and alloys from a fundamental viewpoint. The approach is to calculate these quantities by a first principles technique which combines the statistical-mechanical theory of the liquid state with an electronic pseudopotential theory of electrons in metals. The inhomogeneity of the surface is treated using an ionic-density-functional formalism developed with the support of NASA. Of particular interest are the variation of surface tension with temperature and impurity concentration: such variations strongly influence the types of convection which make take place in a low-gravity environment. Some progress has already been achieved in computing the reduction of surface tension due to the presence of low-surface-tension impurities, and the corresponding surface segregation of such impurities. In the coming year, it is planned to concentrate on the surface properties of materials of particular interest to the MSA program: Si, Ga and GaSn alloys. An additional goal is to gain some theoretical understanding of the high temperature thermophysical properties of liquid metals, particularly high melting point materials which have not been studied extensively from a theoretical viewpoint.

Stroud, D. G.↗

An application of artificial intelligence theory to reconfigurable flight control

Artificial intelligence techniques were used along with statistical hpyothesis testing and modern control theory, to help the pilot cope with the issues of information, knowledge, and capability in the event of a failure. An intelligent flight control system is being developed which utilizes knowledge of cause and effect relationships between all aircraft components. It will screen the information available to the pilots, supplement his knowledge, and most importantly, utilize the remaining flight capability of the aircraft following a failure. The list of failure types the control system will accommodate includes sensor failures, actuator failures, and structural failures.

Handelman, David A.↗

Performance Analysis of Garbage Collection and Dynamic Reordering in a Lisp System

Generation based garbage collection and dynamic reordering of objects are two techniques for improving the efficiency of memory management in Lisp and similar dynamic language systems. An analysis of the effect of generation configuration is presented, focusing on the effect of a number of generations and generation capabilities. Analytic timing and survival models are used to represent garbage collection runtime and to derive structural results on its behavior. The survival model provides bounds on the age of objects surviving a garbage collection at a particular level. Empirical results show that execution time is most sensitive to the capacity of the youngest generation. A technique called scanning for transport statistics, for evaluating the effectiveness of reordering independent of main memory size, is presented.

Llames, Rene Lim↗

Models of space averaged energetics of plates

The analysis of high frequency vibrations in plates is of particular interest in the study of structure borne noise in aircrafts. The current methods of analysis are either too expensive (finite element method) or may have a confidence band wider than desirable (Statistical Energy Analysis). An alternative technique to model the space and time averaged response of structural acoustics problems with enough detail to include all significant mechanisms of energy generation, transmission, and absorption is highly desirable. The focus of this paper is the development of a set of equations which govern the space and time averaged energy density in plates. To solve this equation, a new type of boundary value problem must be treated in terms of energy density variables using energy and intensity boundary conditions. A computer simulation verification study of the energy governing equation is performed. A finite element formulation of the new equations is also implemented and several test cases are analyzed and compared to analytical solutions.

Bouthier, O. M.↗

Dynamo-based scheme for forecasting the magnitude of solar activity cycles

This paper presents a general framework for forecasting the smoothed maximum level of solar activity in a given cycle, based on a simple understanding of the solar dynamo. This type of forecasting requires knowledge of the sun's polar magnetic field strength at the preceding activity minimum. Because direct measurements of this quantity are difficult to obtain, the quality of a number of proxy indicators already used by other authors is evaluated, which are physically related to the sun's polar field. These indicators are subjected to a rigorous statistical analysis, and the analysis technique for each indicator is specified in detail in order to simplify and systematize reanalysis for future use. It is found that several of these proxies are in fact poorly correlated or uncorrelated with solar activity, and thus are of little value for predicting activity maxima. Also presented is a scheme in which the predictions of the individual proxies are combined via an appropriately weighted mean to produce a compound prediction. The scheme is then applied to the current cycle 22, and a maximum smoothed international sunspot number of 171 + or - 26 is estimated.

Layden, A. C.↗