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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2006

Initiation of the Slow-Rise and Fast-Rise Phases of an Erupting Solar Filament by Localized Emerging Magnetic Field via Microflaring

EUV data from EIT show that a filament of 2001 February 28 underwent a slow-rise phase lasting about 6 hrs, before rapidly erupting in a fast-rise phase. Concurrent images in soft X-rays (SXRs) from Yohkoh/SXT show that a series of three microflares, prominent in SXT images but weak in EIT approx.195 Ang EUV images, occurred near one end of the filament. The first and last microflares occurred respectively in conjunction with the start of the slow-rise phase and the start of the fast-rise phase, and the second microflare corresponded to a kink in the filament trajectory. Beginning within 10 hours of the start of the slow rise, new magnetic flux emerged at the location of the microflaring. This localized new flux emergence and the resulting microflares, consistent with reconnection between the emerging field and the sheared sigmoid core magnetic field holding the filament, apparently caused the slow rise of this field and the transition to explosive eruption. For the first time in such detail, the observations show this direct action of localized emerging flux in the progressive destabilization of a sheared core field in the onset of a coronal mass ejection (CME). Similar processes may have occurred in other recently-studied events, NASA supported this work through NASA SR&T and SEC GI grants.

Sterling, A. C.↗
NASA NTRS1992

ICE/ISEE plasma wave data analysis

The interval reported on, from Jan. 1990 to Dec. 1991, has been one of continued processing and archiving of ICE plasma wave (pw) data and transition from analysis of ISEE 3 and ICE cometary data to ICE data taken along its cruise trajectory, where coronal mass ejections are the focus of attention. We have continued to examine with great interest the last year of ISEE 3's precomet phase, when it spent considerable time far downwind from Earth, recording conditions upstream, downstream, and across the very weak, distant flank bow shock. Among other motivations was the apparent similarity of some shock and post shock structures to the signatures of the bow wave surrounding comet Giacobini-Zinner, whose ICE-phase data was revisited. While pursuing detailed, second-order scientific inquiries still pending from the late ISEE 3 recordings, we have also sought to position ourselves for study of CME's by instituting a data processing format new to the ISEE 3/ICE pw detector. Processed detector output has always been summarized and archived in 24-hour segments, with all pw channels individually plotted and stacked one above the next down in frequency, with each channel calibrated separately to keep all data patterns equally visible in the plots, regardless of gross differences in energy content at the various frequencies. Since CME's, with their preceding and following solar wind plasmas, can take more than one day to pass by the spacecraft, a more condensed synoptic view of the pw data is required to identify, let alone assess, CME characteristics than has been afforded by the traditional routines. This requirement is addressed in a major new processing initiative in the past two years. Besides our own ongoing and fresh investigations, we have cooperated, within our resources, with studies conducted extramurally by distant colleagues irrespective of the phase of the ISEE 3/ICE mission under scrutiny. The remainder of this report summarizes our processing activities, our investigations, both internal and cooperative, our scientific results, and our publication activity.

Greenstadt, E. W.↗
NASA NTRS2003

A Measure from Line-of-Sight Magnetograms for Prediction of Coronal Mass Ejections

From a sample of 17 vector magnetograms of 12 bipolar active regions we have recently found (1) that a measure of the overall nonpotentiality (the overall twist and shear in the magnetic field) of an active region is given by the strong shear length Lss, the length of the portion of the main neutral line on which the observed transverse fields is strong (greater than 150 Guass (G)) and strongly sheared (shear angle greater than 45 degrees), and (2) that L(sub ss) is well correlated with the coronal mass ejection (CME) productivity of the active regions during the plus or minus 2-day time window centered on the day of the magnetogram. In the present paper, from the same sample of 17 vector magnetograms, we show that there is a viable proxy for L(sub ss) that can be measured from a line-of-sight magnetogram. This proxy is the strong gradient length L(sub SG), the length of the portion of the main neutral line on which the potential transverse field is strong (greater than 150 G), and the gradient of the line-of-sight field is sufficiently steep (greater than approximately 50 G/Mm). In our sample of active regions, L(sub SG) is statistically significantly correlated with Lss (correlation confidence level greater than 95%), and L(sub SG) is as strongly correlated with active region CME productivity as is L(sub SS) (correlation confidence level approximately 99.7%). Because L(sub SG) can be measured from line-of-sight magnetograms obtained from conventional magnetographs, such as the magnetograph mode of the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, it is a dependable substitute for L(sub SS) for use in operational CME forecasting. In addition, via measurement of L(sub SG), the years-long, nearly continuous sequence of 1.5-hour cadence full disk line-of-sight magnetograms from MDI can be used to track the growth and decay of the large-scale nonpotentiality in active regions and to examine the role of this evolution in active region CME productivity.

Falconer, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Remote and In Situ Observations of an Unusual Earth-Directed Coronal Mass Ejection from Multiple Viewpoints

During June 16-21, 2010, an Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) event was observed by instruments onboard STEREO, SOHO, MESSENGER and Wind. This event was the first direct detection of a rotating CME in the middle and outer corona. Here, we carry out a comprehensive analysis of the evolution of the CME in the interplanetary medium comparing in-situ and remote observations, with analytical models and three-dimensional reconstructions. In particular, we investigate the parallel and perpendicular cross section expansion of the CME from the corona through the heliosphere up to 1 AU. We use height-time measurements and the Gradual Cylindrical Shell (GCS) technique to model the imaging observations, remove the projection effects, and derive the 3-dimensional extent of the event. Then, we compare the results with in-situ analytical Magnetic Cloud (MC) models, and with geometrical predictions from past works. We nd that the parallel (along the propagation plane) cross section expansion agrees well with the in-situ model and with the Bothmer & Schwenn [1998] empirical relationship based on in-situ observations between 0.3 and 1 AU. Our results effectively extend this empirical relationship to about 5 solar radii. The expansion of the perpendicular diameter agrees very well with the in-situ results at MESSENGER ( 0:5 AU) but not at 1 AU. We also find a slightly different, from Bothmer & Schwenn [1998], empirical relationship for the perpendicular expansion. More importantly, we find no evidence that the CME undergoes a significant latitudinal over-expansion as it is commonly assumed

Nieves-Chinchilla, T.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Unraveling the Internal Magnetic Field Structure of the Earth-Directed Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections During 1995-2015

The magnetic field configurations associated with interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are the in situ manifestations of the entrained magnetic structure associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We present a comprehensive study of the internal magnetic field configurations of ICMEs observed at 1 AU by the Wind mission during 1995-2015. The goal is to unravel the internal magnetic structure associated with the ICMEs and establish the signatures that validate a flux-rope structure. We examine the expected magnetic field signatures by simulating spacecraft trajectories within a simple flux rope, i.e., with circular–cylindrical (CC) helical magnetic field geometry. By comparing the synthetic configurations with the 353 ICME in situ observations, we find that only 152 events ( Fr ) display the clear signatures of an expected axial-symmetric flux rope. Two more populations exhibit possible signatures of flux rope; 58 cases ( F− ) display a small rotation ( <90° ) of the magnetic field direction, interpreted as a large separation of the spacecraft from the center, and, 62 cases ( F+ ) exhibit larger rotations, possibly arising from more complex configuration. The categories, Cx (14%) and E events (9%), reveal signatures of complexity possibly related with evolutionary processes. We then reconstruct the flux ropes assuming CC geometry. We examine the orientation and geometrical properties during the solar activity levels at the end of Solar Cycle 22 (SC22), SC23 and part of SC24. The orientation exhibits solar cycle trends and follow the heliospheric current sheet orientation. We confirm previous studies that found a Hale cycle dependence of the poloidal field reversal. By comparing our results with the occurrence of CMEs with large angular width ( AW>60∘ ) we find a broad correlation suggesting that such events are highly inclined CMEs. The solar cycle distribution of bipolar vs. unipolar Bz configuration confirms that the CMEs may remove solar cycle magnetic field and helicity.

Nieves-Chinchilla, Teresa↗
NASA NTRS2001

Prediction of Coronal Mass Ejections From Vector Magnetograms: Quantitative Measures as Predictors

We derived two quantitative measures of an active region's global nonpotentiality from the region's vector magnetogram, 1) the net current (I(sub N)), and 2) the length of strong-shear, strong-field main neutral line (Lss), and used these two measures in a pilot study of the CME productivity of 4 active regions. We compared the global nonpotentiality measures to the active regions' CME productivity determined from GOES and Yohkoh/SXT observations. We found that two of the active regions were highly globally nonpotential and were CME productive, while the other two active regions had little global nonpotentiality and produced no CMEs. At the Fall 2000 AGU, we reported on an expanded study (12 active regions and 17 magnetograms) in which we evaluated four quantitative global measures of an active region's magnetic field and compared these measures with the CME productivity. The four global measures (all derived from MSFC vector magnetograms) included our two previous measures (I(sub N) and L(sub ss)) as well as two new ones, the total magnetic flux (PHI) (a measure of an active region's size), and the normalized twist (alpha (bar)= muIN/PHI). We found that the three quantitative measures of global nonpotentiality (I(sub N), L(sub ss), alpha (bar)) were all well correlated (greater than 99% confidence level) with an active region's CME productivity within plus or minus 2 days of the day of the magnetogram. We will now report on our findings of how good our quantitative measures are as predictors of active-region CME productivity, using only CMEs that occurred after the magnetogram. We report the preliminary skill test of these quantitative measures as predictors. We compare the CME prediction success of our quantitative measures to the CME prediction success based on an active region's past CME productivity. We examine the cases of the handful of false positive and false negatives to look for improvements to our predictors. This work is funded by NSF through the Space Weather Program and by NASA through the Solar Physics Supporting Research and Technology Program.

Falconer, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Magnetic Structure and Propagation of Two Interacting CMEs from the Sun to Saturn

One of the grand challenges in heliophysics is the characterization of coronal mass ejection (CME) magnetic structure and evolution from eruption at the Sun through heliospheric propagation. At present, the main difficulties are related to the lack of direct measurements of the coronal magnetic fi elds and the lack of 3D in-situ measurements of the CME body in interplanetary space. Nevertheless, the evolution of a CME magnetic structure can be followed using a combination of multi-point remote-sensing observations and multi-spacecraft in-situ measurements as well as modelling. Accordingly, we present in this work the analysis of two CMEs that erupted from the Sun on 28 April 2012. We follow their eruption and early evolution using remote-sensing data, fi nding indications of CME{CME interaction, and then analyse their interplanetary counterpart(s) using in-situ measurements at Venus, Earth, and Saturn. We observe a seemingly single flux rope at all locations, but find possible signatures of interaction at Earth, where high-cadence plasma data are available. Reconstructions of the in-situ flux ropes provide almost identical results at Venus and Earth but show greater discrepancies at Saturn, suggesting that the CME was highly distorted and/or that further interaction with nearby solar wind structures took place before 10 AU. This work highlights the difficulties in connecting structures from the Sun to the outer heliosphere and demonstrates the importance of multi-spacecraft studies to achieve a deeper understanding of the magnetic confi guration of CMEs.

Erika Palmerio↗
NASA NTRS2005

MULTIWAVELENGTH ANALYSIS OF A SOLAR FLARE ON 2002 APRIL 15

We carried out a multiwavelength analysis of the solar limb flare on 2002 April 15. The observations all indicate that the flare occurred in an active region with an asymmetric dipole magnetic configuration. The earlier conclusion that magnetic reconnection is occurring in a large-scale current sheet in this flare is M e r supported by these observations: (1) Several bloblike sources, seen in RHESSI 12-25 keV X-ray images later in the flare, appeared along a line above the flare loops. These indicate the continued presence of the current sheet and are likely to be magnetic islands in the stretched sheet produced by the tearing-mode instability. (2) A cusplike structure is seen in Nobeyama Radioheliogiaph (NoRH) 34 GHz microwave images around the time of the peak flare emission. We quantitatively demonstrate that the X-ray-emitting thermal plasma seen with RHESSI had a higher temperature than the microwave-emitting plasma seen with NoRH. Since the radio data preferentially see cooler thermal plasma, this result is consistent with the picture in which energy release occurs at progressively greater heights and the hard X-rays see hot new loops while the radio sees older cooling loops. The kinetic energy of the coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with this flare was found to be about 1 order of magnitude less than both the thermal energy in the hot plasma and the nonthermal energy carried by the accelerated electrons in the flare, as deduced from the RHESSI observations. This contrasts with the higher CME kinetic energies typically deduced for large flares.

Sui, Linhui↗
NASA NTRS2024

A Model for Flux Rope Formation and Disconnection in Pseudostreamer Coronal Mass Ejections

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from pseudostreamers represent a significant fraction of large-scale eruptions from the Sun. In some cases, these CMEs take a narrow jet-like form reminiscent of coronal jets; in others, they have a much broader fan-shaped morphology like CMEs from helmet streamers. We present results from a magnetohydrodynamic simulation of a broad pseudostreamer CME. The early evolution of the eruption is initiated through a combination of breakout interchange reconnection at the overlying null point and ideal instability of the flux rope that forms within the pseudostreamer. This stage is characterised by a rolling motion and deflection of the flux rope toward the breakout current layer. The stretching out of the strapping field forms a flare current sheet below the flux rope; reconnection onset there forms low-lying flare arcade loops and the two-ribbon flare footprint. Once the CME flux rope breaches the rising breakout current layer, interchange reconnection with the external open field disconnects one leg from the Sun. This induces a whip-like rotation of the flux rope, generating the unstructured fan shape characteristic of pseudostreamer CMEs. Interchange reconnection behind the CME releases torsional Alfv´en waves and bursty dense outflows into the solar wind. Our results demonstrate that pseudostreamer CMEs follow the same overall magnetic evolution as coronal jets, although they present different morphologies of their ejecta. We conclude that pseudostreamer CMEs should be considered a class of eruptions that are distinct from helmet streamer CMEs, in agreement with previous observational studies.

Sun: corona↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Temporal and Spatial Dynamics of Nitric Oxide Production at High Latitudes During an ICME-driven Storm on Dec. 14, 2006

During geomagnetic storms driven by interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), Earth’s upper atmosphere neutral mass density is directly driven by the geomagnetic storm cycle from intense driving and subsequent recovery. The neutral density heating and cooling times are shorter for stronger storms and longer for weaker storms. The influx of energy (Joule Heating and precipitation) into Earth’s upper atmosphere during the storm main phase allows for the enhanced production of nitric oxide (NO) at high latitudes, which in turn cools the thermosphere by radiating away excess energy. As a result, greater NO production results in quicker thermospheric cooling. Yet while the production of NO on a global scale has been examined in detail, the space and time evolution of NO is not well-known. In this study, we investigate the effects of a particular ICME-driven storm, which occurred on Dec. 14th, 2006, on the production of NO at high latitudes. We compare NO measurements from the Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere Dynamics (TIMED) spacecraft to neutral mass density measurements from the Challenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) spacecraft and find that the impact of the shock prior to the storm, not just the onset of the storm itself, is responsible for an increase in NO production. We also observe a dawn-dusk asymmetry in high-latitude NO production and discuss how the geometry of the solar wind driver may play a role in creating this asymmetry. Finally, we discuss how the improved hemispheric and local time coverage provided by the GDC and DYNAMIC missions will enable more robust studies of the spatiotemporal evolution of NO during storms. Since NO is an important factor in regulating the neutral density of the thermosphere, such studies will be relevant for more accurate orbital drag calculations.

Kevin Delano↗
NASA NTRS1986

Results from the solar maximum mission

The major results from SMM (Solar Max Mission) are presented as they relate to the understanding of the energy release and particle transportation processes that led to the high energy X-ray aspects of solar flares. Evidence is reviewed for a 152- to 158-day periodicity in various aspects of solar activity including the rate of occurrence of hard X-ray and gamma-ray flares. The statistical properties of over 7000 hard X-ray flares detected with the Hard X-Ray Burst Spectrometer are presented including the spectrum of peak rates and the distribution of the photo number spectrum. A flare classification scheme is used to divide flares into three different types. Type A flares have purely thermal, compact sources with very steep hard X-ray spectra. Type B flares are impulsive bursts which show double footpoints in hard X-rays, and soft-hard-soft spectral evolution. Type C flares have gradually varying hard X-ray and microwave fluxes from high altitudes and show hardening of the X-ray spectrum through the peak and on the decay. SSM data are presented for examples of Type B and Type C events. New results are presented showing coincident hard X rays, O V, and UV continuum observations in Type B events with a time resolution of 128 ms. The subsecond variations in the hard X-ray flux during 10% of the stronger events are discussed and the fastest observed variation in a time of 20 ms is presented. The properties of Type C flares are presented as determined primarily from the non-imaged hard X-ray and microwave spectral data. A model based on the association of Type C flares and coronal mass ejections is presented to explain many of the characteristics of these gradual flares.

Dennis, B. R.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Complexity analysis of a CT injection experiment on BRB

In this work, we use Jensen–Shannon complexity and permutation entropy to analyze the magnetic field fluctuations of an astrophysically scaled plasma experiment. The experiment was intended to emulate an interplanetary coronal mass ejection event in the lab, recreating the major sections seen in satellite data. We also use a technique called “delay,” in which we use select elements, skipping one or more data points at a time, in our time series data to obtain Jensen–Shannon complexity as a function of frequency and investigate the frequency of maximized complexity. We then compare the delay frequencies to other frequencies in the plasma. We found that the frequencies for maximum complexity do not correspond to the frequencies investigated, implying that other physical mechanisms lead to an increase in complexity at these frequencies.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS2012

Multi-Scale Modeling of Magnetospheric Dynamics

Magnetic reconnection is a key element in many phenomena in space plasma, e.g. Coronal mass Ejections, Magnetosphere substorms. One of the major challenges in modeling the dynamics of large-scale systems involving magnetic reconnection is to quantifY the interaction between global evolution of the magnetosphere and microphysical kinetic processes in diffusion regions near reconnection sites. Recent advances in small-scale kinetic modeling of magnetic reconnection significantly improved our understanding of physical mechanisms controlling the dissipation in the vicinity of the reconnection site in collisionless plasma. However the progress in studies of small-scale geometries was not very helpful for large scale simulations. Global magnetosphere simulations usually include non-ideal processes in terms of numerical dissipation and/or ad hoc anomalous resistivity. Comparative studies of magnetic reconnection in small scale geometries demonstrated that MHD simulations that included non-ideal processes in terms of a resistive term 11 J did not produce fast reconnection rates observed in kinetic simulations. In collisionless magnetospheric plasma, the primary mechanism controlling the dissipation in the vicinity of the reconnection site is nongyrotropic pressure effects with spatial scales comparable with the particle Larmor radius. We utilize the global MHD code BATSRUS and replace ad hoc parameters such as "critical current density" and "anomalous resistivity" with a physically motivated model of dissipation. The primary mechanism controlling the dissipation in the vicinity of the reconnection site in incorporated into MHD description in terms of non-gyrotropic corrections to the induction equation. We will demonstrate that kinetic nongyrotropic effects can significantly alter the global magnetosphere evolution. Our approach allowed for the first time to model loading/unloading cycle in response to steady southward IMF driving. The role of solar wind parameters and ionospheric conductance on the dynamics of the loading/unloading cycle will be discussed.

Kuznetsova, M. M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Deep Space navigation for the BioSentinel spacecraft science orbit

BioSentinel is an astrobiology small spacecraft mission. The payload consists of two parts, the first has optical and microfluidics sensors, and the second is a Linear Energy Transfer spectrometer that has the objective to measure deep space radiation from events such as coronal mass ejections. The goal of the mission is to observe potential DNA damage due to the radiation in heliocentric space on the living organism Saccharomyces cerevisiae, which is a budding yeast. Two types of this living organism are included in the payload. The first is a natural type that is more radiation tolerant, while the second is a mutant strain that has a deficiency in a gene that allows DNA repair once damage occurs. The impact caused by the radiation on the DNA is compared to an identical sample aboard the International Space Station, as well as another identical sample at a laboratory on the ground. The BioSentinel mission consists of a 6U CubeSat currently ,as of January 2024, active in heliocentric orbit. The spacecraft was launched aboard the first SLS flight as part of the Artemis-I campaign in November 2022. After successful deployment from the launch vehicle, it performed a lunar flyby with an altitude of 406 km. The delta-V imparted by the flyby provided the necessary energy to achieve a heliocentric orbit, in an Earth-trailing pattern. The navigation analysis consisted of a Kalman-filter that utilized data from the Deep Space Network and the ESA Estrack network. All those antennas were needed since the Artemis-1 campaign included the deployment of several other cubesats, therefore the scheduling process required more antenna assets than usual due to simultaneous demands from various missions. The processed tracking data was later also refined with a smoother in order to obtain a more accurate solution. The type of tracking data included TCP, Sequential Range, Doppler and Range formats. The solar radiation pressure coefficient, as well as the delta-V from the deployment and the flyby were modeled to obtain suitable solutions that could decrease the position and velocity uncertainties at several steps along the mission concept of operations. The final product each time resulted in updated ephemeris files that were used by the mission and the antenna networks as the mission progressed. Once in the final science orbit, the utilized antennas are only from the DSN network and the data format is bounded to just TCP. Regular orbit determination is performed, every two weeks. The spacecraft is in a nominal well-known orbit, performing regular operations. This paper includes an analysis of the final science orbit, the techniques and procedures utilized to perform orbit determination and a description of the overall navigation campaign produced during the mission and, more specifically, during the final science operations in Deep Space.

BioSentinel↗
NASA NTRS2010

Selection Effects in Identifying Magnetic Clouds and the Importance of the Closest Approach Parameter

This study is motivated by the unusually low number of magnetic clouds (MCs) that are strictly identified within interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), as observed at 1 AU; this is usually estimated to be around 30% or lower. But a looser definition of MCs may significantly increase this percentage. Another motivation is the unexpected shape of the occurrence distribution of the observers' "closest approach distances" (measured from a MC's axis, and called CA) which drops off somewhat rapidly as |CA| (in % of MC radius) approaches 100%, based on earlier studies. We suggest, for various geometrical and physical reasons, that the |CA|-distribution should be somewhere between a uniform one and the one actually observed, and therefore the 30% estimate should be higher. So we ask, When there is a failure to identify a MC within an ICME, is it occasionally due to a large |CA| passage, making MC identification more difficult, i.e., is it due to an event selection effect? In attempting to answer this question we examine WIND data to obtain an accurate distribution of the number of MCs vs. |CA| distance, whether the event is ICME-related or not, where initially a large number of cases (N=98) are considered. This gives a frequence distribution that is far from uniform, confirming earlier studies. This along with the fact that there are many ICME identification-parameters that do not depend on |CA| suggest that, indeed an MC event selection effect may explain at least part of the low ratio of (No. MCs)/(No. ICMEs). We also show that there is an acceptable geometrical and physical consistency in the relationships for both average "normalized" magnetic field intensity change and field direction change vs. |CA| within a MC, suggesting that our estimates of |CA|, B(sub 0) (magnetic field intensity on the axis), and choice of a proper "cloud coordinate" system (all needed in the analysis) are acceptably accurate. Therefore the MC fitting model (Lepping et al., 1990) is adequate, on average, for our analysis. However, this selection effect is not likely to completely answer our original question, on the unexpected ratio of MCs to ICMEs, so we must look for other factors, such as peculiarities of CME birth conditions. As a by-product of this analysis, we determine that the first order structural effects within a MC due to its interaction with the solar wind, plus the MC's usual expansion at 1 AU (i.e., the non-force free components of the MC's field) are, on average, weakly dependent on radial distance from the MC's axis; that is, in the outer reaches of a typical MC the non-force free effects show up, but even there they are rather weak. Finally, we show that it is not likely that a MC's size distribution statistically controls the occurrence distribution of the estimated |CA|s.

Lepping, R. P.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Modeling Solar Flare Hard X-ray Images and Spectra Observed with RHESSI

Observations obtained with the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) of a flare on February 20, 2002 indicate a hard X-ray (HXR) coronal source at or near the top of a flare loop (called a HXR looptop source). The existence of the HXR looptop source suggests that magnetic reconnection, which is believed to power flares, occurs above the loop. In order to explain this HXR looptop source, I created a steady-state particle transport model, in which high-energy electrons are continuously injected at the top of a semicircular flare loop. Based on the simulation results, I find that the model predictions are consistent with the RHESSI observations in many respects, but the spectrum of the looptop source obtained from the model is steeper than that from the RHESSI data. This suggests that, instead of being accelerated above the loop as generally believed, the particles might be accelerated in the looptop itself. RHESSI-observations of three other homologous flares that occurred between April 14 and 16, 2002, provide strong evidence for the presence of a large scale current sheet above a flare loop, which is the basis of standard flare models. The most convincing finding is the presence of the temperature distribution of a separate coronal source above the flare loops: the hotter part of the coronal source was located lower in altitude the cooler part. Together with the fact that the hotter flare loops are higher than the cooler loops, the observations support the existence of a large-scale current sheet between the top of the flare loops and the coronal source above. Blob-Like sources along a line above the loop in the decay phase of the April 15, 2002, flare, which are suggestive of magnetic islands initiated by the tearing-mode instability, and the observation of a cusp structure in microwaves, further support the presence of the current sheet. The observations of the three homologous flares reveal two other features which are beyond the predictions of the standard flare models: the downward motion of flare loops in the early impulsive phase of each flare, and an initially stationary coronal source above the loops. These features me believed to be related to the formation and development of a current sheet. In particular, the downward loop motion seem to be a common phenomenon in flares, suggesting the necessity for modifications to the existing standard flare. models. Finally, thanks to the broad energy coverage of the RHESSI spectra, a low-energy cutoff of 28 (plus or minus 2) keV in the nonthermal electron distribution was determined for the April 15, 2002, flare. As a result, the energy carried by the nonthermal electrons is found to be comparable to the thermal energy of the flare, but one order of magnitude larger than the kinetic energy of the associated coronal mass ejection. The method used to deduce the electron low-energy cutoff will be useful in the analyses of similar events.

Sui, Linhui↗
NASA NTRS2004

Prediction of Active-Region CME Productivity from Magnetograms

We report results of an expanded evaluation of whole-active-region magnetic measures as predictors of active-region coronal mass ejection (CME) productivity. Previously, in a sample of 17 vector magnetograms of 12 bipolar active regions observed by the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) vector magnetograph, from each magnetogram we extracted a measure of the size of the active region (the active region s total magnetic flux a) and four measures of the nonpotentiality of the active region: the strong-shear length L(sub SS), the strong-gradient length L(sub SG), the net vertical electric current I(sub N), and the net-current magnetic twist parameter alpha (sub IN). This sample size allowed us to show that each of the four nonpotentiality measures was statistically significantly correlated with active-region CME productivity in time windows of a few days centered on the day of the magnetogram. We have now added a fifth measure of active-region nonpotentiality (the best-constant-alpha magnetic twist parameter (alpha sub BC)), and have expanded the sample to 36 MSFC vector magnetograms of 31 bipolar active regions. This larger sample allows us to demonstrate statistically significant correlations of each of the five nonpotentiality measures with future CME productivity, in time windows of a few days starting from the day of the magnetogram. The two magnetic twist parameters (alpha (sub 1N) and alpha (sub BC)) are normalized measures of an active region s nonpotentially in that they do not depend directly on the size of the active region, while the other three nonpotentiality measures (L(sub SS), L(sub SG), and I(sub N)) are non-normalized measures in that they do depend directly on active-region size. We find (1) Each of the five nonpotentiality measures is statistically significantly correlated (correlation confidence level greater than 95%) with future CME productivity and has a CME prediction success rate of approximately 80%. (2) None of the nonpotentiality measures is a significantly better CME predictor than the others. (3) The active-region phi shows some correlation with CME productivity, but well below a statistically significant level (correlation confidence level less than approximately 80%; CME prediction success rate less than approximately 65%). (4) In addition to depending on magnetic twist, CME productivity appears to have some direct dependence on active-region size (rather than only an indirect dependence through a correlation of magnetic twist with active-region size), but it will take a still larger sample of active regions (50 or more) to certify this. (5) Of the five nonpotentiality measures, L(sub SG) appears to be the best for operational CME forecasting because it is as good or better a CME predictor than the others and it alone does not require a vector magnetogram; L(sub SG) can be measured from a line-of-sight magnetogram such as from the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO).

Falconer, D. A.↗