SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Shape analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 937 records · Page 52

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2023

Characterization of Fe-6Si Soft Magnetic Alloy Produced by Laser-Directed Energy Deposition Additive Manufacturing

Abstract Commercial electrical steels, Fe-Si alloys with < 4 wt.% Si, are inexpensive and efficient materials for electrical power conversion. Further efficiency improvements require increasing the silicon concentration to 6 wt.%, at which point the material becomes brittle and difficult to form by conventional rolling and sheet fabrication methods. Additive manufacturing stands to overcome challenges with commercial manufacturing techniques by leveraging near-net-shape fabrication. The wide array of process conditions provides additive manufacturing with increased flexibility, enabling control over the microstructure and mechanical properties. This work explores the microstructures and magnetic properties of ring-shaped Fe-Si alloys produced using concentric and cross-hatch tool paths on a laser-directed energy deposition additive manufacturing system. Concentric-built samples exhibit elongated grain structures while cross-hatch-built samples comprise lower aspect ratio grain structures. Thermal finite element analysis simulations model the stress conditions produced by the different scan path geometries. Microhardness measurements probe the mechanical properties as a function of anneal temperature, providing a qualitative understanding of the intergranular defect density. Soft magnetic properties measured under quasistatic and AC conditions show frequency- and microstructure-dependent coercivity and permeability. Finally, analysis of the core loss quantifies how the build strategies and thermal treatments influence efficiency in electrical power conversion applications. Understanding the influences of scan path geometry and thermal treatment provides a pathway towards application of additively manufactured soft magnetic materials.

Adamczyk, Jesse M.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Review of SiC material development for nuclear fusion applications: Cross-cutting research and emerging opportunities

The SiC-based materials, particularly SiC-fiber-reinforced SiC matrix (SiC/SiC) composites, show strong potential for structural and functional applications in future fusion power plants because they can operate at high temperatures with a range of coolants and breeders, thereby enabling higher energy conversion efficiency. Here, this paper presents recent advancements in the development of SiC-based materials, focusing on processing techniques and material performance and resistance under fusion-relevant environments. The processing activities have emphasized near-net-shape fabrication and the joining of SiC subcomponents, with processing methods and material compositions informed by previous irradiation experiments on various grades of SiC. Research on irradiation effects has remained focused on degradation mechanisms and the microstructural optimization of SiC/SiC composites irradiated to high neutron damage levels. Analysis of irradiation defects in SiC has advanced via the application of cutting-edge characterization methods, among which Raman spectroscopy is becoming a common tool to assess atomic-scale chemical disorder. Fusion–fission crosscutting irradiation research has explored combined effects in SiC/SiC composites with application-relevant geometries, including bowing of SiC/SiC composite channels under neutron flux gradients, stress evolution in SiC/SiC composite tubes under through-thickness temperature gradients, and irradiation-enhanced corrosion in SiC. Finally, research opportunities for component testing and assessment under fusion-relevant conditions, in support of emerging concepts from the private fusion sector, are discussed.

Advanced manufacturing↗

DOE OSTI2020

Unusual superparamagnetic behavior in bulk Ba 0.198 La 0.784 Ti 0.096 Fe 0.8 O 3-δ

Here, we report the observation of superparamgnetic behavior induced by the substitution La 3+ by Ba 2+ at A-sites and Fe +3 by Ti 4+ at B-sites. Ba 0.198 La 0.784 Ti 0.096 Fe 0.8 O 3-δ was synthesized via solid state reaction. The Rietveld refinements revealed an orthorhombic (Pbnm). The low-mag STEM results showed that the particles were found to exhibit square like shape and formed in single crystal with high degree of crystallinity. The particle size ranges of 50 300 nm. Element mapping demonstrates a complementary distribution between Ba and La, while homogenous distribution is found for Fe and O. The optical band gap determined from UV-vis analysis is equal to 1.93 eV which is smaller than the reported one for LaFeO 3 and BaTiO 3 . The hysteresis loops at 300 K and 10 K show superparamagnetic behavior, which deviate extremely from the antiferromagnetic nature of LaFeO 3 perovskite. The temperature dependent magnetization demonstrates that the material kept a net magnetization of 12.29 (emu/g) at very low temperature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantification of morphological change in materials based on image data utilizing machine learning techniques

Computed tomography (CT) resolution has become high enough to monitor morphological changes due to aging in materials in long-term applications. We explored the utility of the critic of a generative adversarial network (GAN) to automatically detect such changes. The GAN was trained with images of pristine Pharmatose, which is used as a surrogate energetic material. It is important to note that images of the material with altered morphology were only used during the test phase. The GAN-generated images visually reproduced the microstructure of Pharmatose well, although some unrealistic particle fusion was seen. Calculated morphological metrics (volume fraction, interfacial line length, and local thickness) for the synthetic images also showed good agreement with the training data, albeit with signs of mode collapse in the interfacial line length. While the critic exposed changes in particle size, it showed limited ability to distinguish images by particle shape. The detection of shape differences was also a more challenging task for the selected morphological metrics that related to energetic material performance. We further tested the critic with images of aged Pharmatose. Subtle changes due to aging are difficult for the human analyst to detect. Both critic and morphological metrics analysis showed image differentiation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Nature-inspired lotus-shaped fins combined with hybrid nanoparticles and metal foam for high-performance latent heat thermal energy storage

Latent heat thermal energy storage (LHTES) systems play a critical role in renewable energy integration by providing high energy density and nearly isothermal operation during phase transitions. However, their performance is often limited by slow melting/charging rates, which motivates the search for enhanced heat transfer designs. This study investigates the melting behavior of RT-82 phase change material (PCM) using novel lotus-shaped fins combined with copper metal foam and conductive graphene nanoparticles and carbon nanotubes. A two-dimensional enthalpy-porosity model in ANSYS Fluent was developed to simulate the charging/melting process, capturing non-thermal equilibrium between the foam and PCM/nano-PCM. In this study, effects of fin geometry, nanoparticle concentration, and foam porosity on melting dynamics and cost-performance trade-offs were investigated. Results showed that natural convection accelerated melting by ~12% compared to conduction-only scenarios. Optimized lotus-shaped fins with higher fin density (T3F4 and T3F10) achieved up to 63% faster melting relative to sparse configurations. Graphene nanoparticles improved thermal conductivity, with a 6% volume fraction, by reducing melting time by ~6.9%, while their combination with 75% porosity foam achieved a maximum reduction in the melting time of ~51% compared to pure PCM. Cost-performance analysis identified T3F4 as the most balanced design, offering rapid thermal response without excessive material costs, while moderate-density designs like T3S6 provided economical alternatives with acceptable performance. These results highlight the performance enhancement that can be achieved by integrating bio-inspired fins, nanoparticles, and foams, into compact and efficient LHTES for solar heating, building thermal management, and industrial waste-heat recovery applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncovering the role of nanoscale precipitates on martensitic transformation and superelasticity

Here we characterize the role of coherent nanoscale B2 Ni 50 Al 50 precipitates on the temperature- and stress-induced martensitic phase transformation in nanocrystalline Ni 63 Al 37 shape memory alloys using multi-million-atoms molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. We studied two types of precipitates: one with single crystal precipitates (SXP) and a second where grain boundaries cut through precipitates (PXP). Simulations reveal that the presence of B2 precipitates stabilizes the cyclic flag-shaped stress-strain response, characteristic of superelasticity, and reduces remnant strain. In contrast, single-phase nanocrystalline Ni 63 Al 37 exhibits degradation of the reverse transformation during cyclic loading and, eventually, incomplete reversible transformation within a few cycles. This is consistent with previous experimental findings of ultra-low fatigue in Ni-Ti-Cu alloys with Ti 2 Cu precipitates. The simulations reveal that the presence of precipitates significantly improves the reversibility of the transformation by acting as elastic zones that partially shield the martensitic transformation and drive the reverse transformation. A detailed analysis of the MD trajectories reveals that the martensitic transformation of the matrix induces ultra-large elastic deformation in some of the B2 precipitates (approximately 12%) to the point of resulting in a martensite-like atomic structure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

A practical approach to calculating magnetic Johnson noise for precision measurements

Magnetic Johnson noise is an important consideration for many applications involving precision magnetometry, and its significance will only increase in the future with improvements in measurement sensitivity. The fluctuation–dissipation theorem can be utilized to derive analytic expressions for magnetic Johnson noise in certain situations, but when used in conjunction with finite element analysis tools, the combined approach is particularly powerful as it provides a practical means to calculate the magnetic Johnson noise arising from conductors of arbitrary geometry and permeability. In this paper, we demonstrate this method to be one of the most comprehensive approaches presently available to calculate thermal magnetic noise. In particular, its applicability is shown to not be limited to cases where the noise is evaluated at a point in space but also can be expanded to include cases where the magnetic field detector has a more general shape, such as a finite-size loop, a gradiometer, or a detector that consists of a polarized atomic species trapped in a volume. Furthermore, some physics insights gained through studies made using this method are discussed.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Utilization of the Critic Subnetwork of a Generative Adversarial Network as Detector of Morphological Material Change in Image Data

The resolution of computed tomography (CT) has become high enough to monitor morphological changes due to aging in materials in long-term applications. For this work, we explored the utility of the critic of a generative adversarial network (GAN) to automatically detect such changes. The GAN was trained with images of pristine Pharmatose, which is used as a surrogate energetic material. It is important to note that images of the material with altered morphology were only used during the test phase. The GAN-generated images reproduced the microstructure of Pharmatose well, although some unrealistic particle fusion was seen. Calculated morphological metrics (volume fraction, interfacial line length, and local thickness) for the synthetic images also showed good agreement with the training data, albeit with signs of mode collapse in the interfacial line length. While the critic exposed changes in particle size, it showed limited ability to distinguish images by particle shape. The detection of shape differences was also a more challenging task for the selected morphological metrics that related to energetic material performance. We further tested the critic with images of aged Pharmatose. Subtle changes due to aging are difficult for the human analyst to detect; but both critic and morphological metrics analysis showed image differentiation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Advances in constraining intrinsic alignment models with hydrodynamic simulations

We use galaxies from the illustristng, massiveblack-ii, and illustris-1 hydrodynamic simulations to investigate the behaviour of large scale galaxy intrinsic alignments. Our analysis spans four redshift slices over the approximate range of contemporary lensing surveys z = 0–1. We construct comparable weighted samples from the three simulations, which we then analyse using an alignment model that includes both linear and quadratic alignment contributions. Our data vector includes galaxy–galaxy, galaxy–shape, and shape–shape projected correlations, with the joint covariance matrix estimated analytically. In all of the simulations, we report non-zero IAs at the level of several σ. For a fixed lower mass threshold, we find a relatively strong redshift dependence in all three simulations, with the linear IA amplitude increasing by a factor of ~2 between redshifts z = 0 and z = 1. We report no significant evidence for non-zero values of the tidal torquing amplitude, A 2 , in TNG, above statistical uncertainties, although MBII favours a moderately negative A 2 ~ –2. Examining the properties of the TATT model as a function of colour, luminosity and galaxy type (satellite or central), our findings are consistent with the most recent measurements on real data. We also outline a novel method for constraining the TATT model parameters directly from the pixelized tidal field, alongside a proof-of-concept exercise using TNG. This technique is shown to be promising, although comparison with previous results obtained via other methods is non-trivial.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Precision measurements of EFT parameters and BAO peak shifts for the Lyman- α forest

We present precision measurements of the bias parameters of the one-loop power spectrum model of the Lyman- α (Ly- α ) forest, derived within the effective field theory (EFT) of large-scale structure. We fit our model to the three-dimensional flux power spectrum measured from the ACCEL 2 hydrodynamic simulations. The EFT model fits the data with an accuracy of below 2% up to k = 2 h Mpc − 1 . Further, we analytically derive how nonlinearities in the three-dimensional clustering of the Ly- α forest introduce biases in measurements of the baryon acoustic oscillations (BAOs) scaling parameters in radial and transverse directions. From our EFT parameter measurements, we obtain a theoretical error budget of Δ α ∥ = − 0.2 % ( Δ α ⊥ = − 0.3 % ) for the radial (transverse) parameters at redshift z = 2.0 . This corresponds to a shift of − 0.3 % (0.1%) for the isotropic (anisotropic) distance measurements. We provide an estimate for the shift of the BAO peak for Ly- α -quasar cross-correlation measurements assuming analytical and simulation-based scaling relations for the nonlinear quasar bias parameters resulting in a shift of − 0.2 % ( − 0.1 % ) for the radial (transverse) dilation parameters, respectively. This analysis emphasizes the robustness of Ly- α forest BAO measurements to the theory modeling. We provide informative priors and an error budget for measuring the BAO feature—a key science driver of the currently observing Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). Our work paves the way for full-shape cosmological analyses of Ly- α forest data from DESI and upcoming surveys such as the Prime Focus Spectrograph, WEAVE-QSO, and 4MOST. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

de Belsunce, Roger (ORCID:0000000336604028)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Consumer Purchasing Behavior and Usage of Lighting in the Residential Sector

We present the results of a 2019 online survey of 1,800 adults in the United States who recently purchased a light bulb to understand how consumers make decisions about purchasing light bulbs and how light bulbs are used in the residential sector. From our survey, we found that purchases of LED bulbs made up the largest percentage of sales by lighting technology and respondents generally had positive impressions of LEDs. We estimated the average daily hours of use for bulbs being purchased depending on bulb shape. We also provide an estimate for the lumen distribution of purchased light bulbs and the distribution of installation locations by bulb shape. We found that incandescent bulb purchasers were primarily replacing a failed incandescent bulb and these purchasers were less likely to have favorable impressions of LEDs. However, we found that the majority of participants replacing an incandescent bulb purchased either a CFL or LED. Using an adaptive conjoint analysis technique, we found that the five most important factors to consumers when choosing a light bulb are purchase price, bulb lifetime, energy cost savings relative to an incandescent bulb, light appearance, and energy savings relative to an incandescent bulb. The results of this study provide an in-depth look at the lighting market in 2019 and may provide a basis for developing models of the residential lighting market.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Morphological and Molecular Characterization of Punctodera stonei Brzeski, 1998 (Nematoda: Heteroderidae) from Virginia, USA

In August of 2021, several cysts with juveniles and eggs were discovered during a vegetation survey conducted at the Arlington National Cemetery, Virginia. Eight soil samples were collected from the rhizosphere region of the common grass (Festuca arundinacea L.) and processed at the Mycology and Nematology Genetic Diversity and Biology Laboratory (MNGDBL). Cysts were light to dark brown in color, and oval to pear-shaped without bullae in young cysts but present in older cysts and with prominent vulval cone. The juveniles had slightly concave stylet knobs projecting sometimes anteriorly, tail tapering gradually to a narrowly rounded terminus, and hyaline tail terminus conspicuous at least twice the length of stylet. The molecular analysis included the analysis of three gene sequence fragments: D2–D3 of 28S rRNA, ITS rRNA, and COI. The nematode species was identified by both morphological and molecular means as Stone's cyst nematode, Punctodera stonei. Detection of P. stonei in Virginia represents a new record of this species in the United States, and a second report after Canada in North America.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Fire–precipitation interactions amplify the quasi-biennial variability in fires over southern Mexico and Central America

Fires have great ecological, social, and economic impact. However, fire prediction and management remain challenges due to a limited understanding of their roles in the Earth system. Fires over southern Mexico and Central America (SMCA) are a good example of this, greatly impacting local air quality and regional climate. Here we report that the spring peak (April–May) of fire activities in this region has a distinct quasi-biennial signal based on multiple satellite datasets measuring different fire characteristics. The variability is initially driven by quasi-biennial variations in precipitation. Composite analysis indicates that strong fire years correspond to suppressed ascending motion and weakened precipitation over the SMCA. The anomalous precipitation over the SMCA is further found to be mostly related to the East Pacific–North Pacific (EP-NP) pattern 2 months prior to the fire season. The positive phase of the EP-NP leads to enhanced precipitation over the eastern US but suppressed precipitation over the SMCA, similar to the spatial pattern of precipitation differences between strong and weak fire years. Meanwhile, the quasi-biennial signals in precipitation and fires appear to be amplified by their interactions through a positive feedback loop at short timescales. Model simulations show that in strong fire years, more aerosol particles are released and transported downstream over the Gulf of Mexico and the eastern US, where suspended light-absorbing aerosols warm the atmosphere and cause the ascending motion of the air aloft. Subsequently, a compensating downward motion is formed over the region of the fire source and ultimately suppresses precipitation and intensifies fires. Statistical analysis shows the different durations of the two-way interaction, where the fire suppression effect of precipitation lasts for more than 20 d, while fire leads to a decrease in precipitation at shorter timescales (3–5 d). This study demonstrates the importance of fire–climate interactions in shaping the fire activities on an interannual scale and highlights how precipitation–fire interactions at short timescales contribute to the interannual variability in both fire and precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Retrieval of Transuranic Drums with Deflagration to Detonation Potential from a Vault at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory - 20207

During the final phase of a long-term project, a total of 80 TRU waste drums at ORNL have been retrieved from a below-grade storage vault in which they have remained untouched for about 25 years. The drums, which house material generated from past ORNL operations, are now stored and ready for eventual transfer to the Transuranic Waste Processing Center, located on Highway 95 in Oak Ridge. The Transuranic Waste Processing Center will process and ship the drums to WIPP in Carlsbad, New Mexico, for disposal. Workers lifted the drums one-by-one from the underground storage vault with a 110-ton crane over a one-week period in October 2017. Although the physical work was performed in one week, years of detailed planning preceded the fieldwork. A key obstacle needed to be overcome before the project could safely proceed. This obstacle involved the need to ensure controls were developed for the Deflagration to Detonation Transition (DDT) potential. DDT refers to a phenomenon in ignitable mixtures of a flammable gas and air (or oxygen) when a sudden transition takes place from a deflagration type of combustion to a detonation type of explosion. Basically, these drums, under certain circumstances, have a potential to detonate and overpressurize. Extensive analysis of the drums verified that detonation, while unlikely, was possible. Of the total 103 drums that were retrieved or moved in preparation for retrieval, 18 had DDT potential. Extensive security requirements were also necessary, due to the nature of the material, and this added another layer of complexity to the fieldwork. Prior to retrieving the drums from the underground storage vault, space needed to be made for them within the various above-grade facilities. Inventory and security requirements dictated what could be stored where, and the first step of the field work involved a number of drum movements in preparation for storage of the newly retrieved drums. This effort involved moving 21 drums already in the storage area to facilitate the addition of the newly retrieved ones. The retrieval project required a total of 107 critical lifts using the 110-ton crane, under 3 critical lift plans. The TRU waste storage facility is a Category 2 Nuclear Facility and is managed under an extensive Documented Safety Analysis. The TRU retrieval project was conducted in accordance with DOE Order 425.1D and included three Implementation Verification Reviews, two Management Assessments, one Readiness Assessment, and seven mock-ups in preparation for the field work. Despite being stored for 25 years, the drums were in good shape due to the integrity of the facilities where the drums were stored. Of the 80 drums that were retrieved, 12 were placed in special containers called 'overpacks' based on their content. The drums were removed safely and without incident, thanks to a lot of preparation and the efforts of a highly skilled team. Lessons learned through the DDT control development and the drum retrieval and overpacking process could be beneficial to others having to manage similar drums of TRU waste. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2026

Satellite Metallicity Enhancement I: Suppressed Star Formation, Stellar Mass Loss, and Enriched Inflow of DESI and EAGLE Galaxies around Massive Clusters

Environmental effects are a primary driver of elevated gas-phase metallicities in galaxies around massive clusters, but the underlying physical mechanisms for this satellite metallicity enhancement (SME) are still unclear. Using the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 1, we present the first measurement of the average SME as a function of projected cluster-centric distance. The resulting profile reveals three distinct regimes: a steep decline from the cluster center, a plateau near the cluster boundary, and an extended downturn across several cluster radii. Remarkably, the complex shape and amplitude of this observed SME profile are successfully reproduced in the EAGLE cosmological simulation. Drawing insights from EAGLE, we develop a novel satellite chemical evolution model to decompose the observed SME into physical contributions from suppressed star formation, stellar mass loss, and enriched gas inflow. Our analysis shows that continuous accretion of enriched intracluster medium dominates the SME plateau within the cluster virial radius, while mass loss and quenching jointly drive the rapid metallicity decline in the cluster core. Our method disentangles the impacts of three environmental processes on galactic chemical enrichment in the cosmic web, providing a powerful framework for understanding cluster galaxy evolution with current and future spectroscopic surveys.

Lin, Yuanye [Shanghai Jiao Tong U.; Shanghai Jiaot↗

DOE OSTI2022

Influence of triangularity on the plasma response to resonant magnetic perturbations

The effect of the axisymmetric plasma shape on the non-axisymmetric plasma response to resonant magnetic perturbations is investigated in experiment and modeling for the DIII-D, EAST and ASDEX Upgrade tokamaks. Systematically modeling the effect of the triangularity, whilst keeping other equilibrium quantities largely unchanged, reveals that the plasma response is strongly suppressed at high triangularity compared to that at low triangularity. This is validated through targeted comparison with experiments at DIII-D, EAST, and ASDEX Upgrade. DIII-D and EAST magnetic measurements are used to validate simulations, while at ASDEX Upgrade the plasma edge displacement is measured. Both experiments and modeling find a reduced magnetic plasma response on the high-field side at high triangularity across devices. Multi-modal analysis of the simulation results extracts the mode structure and applied spectrum dependence of each mode. The amplitude of the dominant mode reveals similar trends with the edge resonance and radial displacement near the X-point, which suggests that the multi-mode plasma response provides another way to understand the edge localized mode (ELM) control physics. The plasma response is strongly reduced at high triangularity compared to that at low triangularity, which implies different ELM control effects as shaping is varied. Furthermore, these findings indicate that the plasma shape should be taken into consideration when designing an RMP-ELM control strategy in experiment, and that predictive plasma response calculations can be used to maximize access to RMP-ELM control in future devices by maximizing the coupling between coils and the plasma.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Do ambient shear and thermal stratification impact wind turbine tip-vortex breakdown?

Modern wind turbines experience uneven inflow conditions across the rotor, due to the ambient flow’s shear and thermal stratification. Such conditions alter the shape and length of turbine wakes and thus impact the loads and power generation of downstream turbines. To this end, understanding the spatial evolution of the individual wakes under different atmospheric conditions is key to controlling and optimising turbine arrays. With this numerical study we aim to obtain a better understanding of the fundamental physics governing the near-wake dynamics of wind turbines under shear and thermal stability, by examining their tip-vortex breakup mechanisms. Our approach considers scale-resolving simulations of a single turbine wake under a linear shear profile as well as the application of harmonic tip perturbations to trigger flow instabilities. For the subsequent analysis we use the proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) method to extract coherent structures from the flow, and we also calculate mean kinetic energy fluxes to quantify each coherent structure’s contribution to wake recovery. The wake’s helical spiral is found to hinder wake recovery for all studied ambient flow conditions, whereas the mutual inductance instability has positive MKE flux leading to an enhanced wake recovery. Finally, the ambient shear has the largest impact on the local MKE flux with respect to downstream location by changing the shape of the curve and location of extrema, whereas thermal stratification has only a minimal impact on the magnitude of the near-wake local MKE flux distribution.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

A novel approach for large-scale wind energy potential assessment

Increasing wind energy generation is central to grid decarbonization, yet methods to estimate wind energy potential are not standardized, leading to inconsistencies and even skewed results. This study aims to improve the fidelity of wind energy potential estimates through an approach that integrates geospatial analysis and machine learning (i.e., Gaussian process regression). We demonstrate this approach to assess the spatial distribution of wind energy capacity potential in the Contiguous United States (CONUS). We find that the capacity-based power density ranges from 1.70 MW/km2 (25th percentile) to 3.88 MW/km2 (75th percentile) for existing wind farms in the CONUS. The value is lower in agricultural areas (2.73 ± 0.02 MW/km2, mean ± 95 % confidence interval) and higher in other land cover types (3.30 ± 0.03 MW/km2). Notably, advancements in turbine manufacturing could reduce power density in areas with lower wind speeds by adopting low specific-power turbines, but improve power density in areas with higher wind speeds (>8.35 m/s at 120m above the ground), highlighting opportunities for repowering existing wind farms. Wind energy potential is shaped by wind resource quality and is regionally characterized by land cover and physical conditions, revealing significant capacity potential in the Great Plains and Upper Texas. The results indicate that areas previously identified as hot spots using existing approaches (e.g., the west of the Rocky Mountains) may have a limited capacity potential due to low wind resource quality. Improvements in methodology and capacity potential estimates in this study could serve as a new basis for future energy systems analysis and planning.

Dai, Tao↗