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At least 937 records · Page 52

Earth Entry Vehicle for Mars Sample Return

The driving requirement for design of a Mars Sample return mission is assuring containment of the returned samples. The impact of this requirement on developmental costs, mass allocation, and design approach of the Earth Entry Vehicle is significant. A simple Earth entry vehicle is described which can meet these requirements and safely transport the Mars Sample Return mission's sample through the Earth's atmosphere to a recoverable location on the surface. Detailed analysis and test are combined with probabilistic risk assessment to design this entirely passive concept that circumvents the potential failure modes of a parachute terminal descent system. The design also possesses features that mitigate other risks during the entry, descent, landing and recovery phases. The results of a full-scale drop test are summarized.

Mitcheltree, R. A.↗

Effect of Simulant Type on the Absorptance and Emittance of Dusted Thermal Control Surfaces in a Simulated Lunar Environment

During the Apollo program the effects of lunar dust on thermal control surfaces was found to be more significant than anticipated, with several systems overheating due to deposition of dust on them. In an effort to reduce risk to future missions, a series of tests has been initiated to characterize the effects of dust on these surfaces, and then to develop technologies to mitigate that risk. Given the variations in albedo across the lunar surface, one variable that may be important is the darkness of the lunar dust, and this study was undertaken to address that concern. Three thermal control surfaces, AZ-93 white paint and AgFEP and AlFEP second surface mirrors were dusted with three different lunar dust simulants in a simulated lunar environment, and their solar absorptivity and thermal emissivity values determined experimentally. The three simulants included JSC 1AF, a darker mare simulant, NU-LHT-1D, a light highlands simulant, and 1:1 mixture of the two. The response of AZ-93 was found to be slightly more pronounced than that of AgFEP. The increased with fractional dust coverage in both types of samples by a factor of 1.7 to 3.3, depending on the type of thermal control surface and the type of dust. The of the AZ-93 decreased by about 10 percent when fully covered by dust, while that of AgFEP increased by about 10 percent. It was found that alpha/epsilon varied by more than a factor of two depending on the thermal control surface and the darkness of the dust. Given that the darkest simulant used in this study may be significantly lighter than the darkest dust that could be encountered on the lunar surface, it becomes apparent that the performance degradation of thermal control surfaces due to dust on the moon will be strongly dependent on the and of the dust in the specific locality.

Gaier, James R.↗

Effect of Simulant Type on the Absorptance and Emittance of Dusted Thermal Control Surfaces in a Simulated Lunar Environment

During the Apollo program the effects of lunar dust on thermal control surfaces was found to be more significant than anticipated, with several systems overheating due to deposition of dust on them. In an effort to reduce risk to future missions, a series of tests has been initiated to characterize the effects of dust on these surfaces, and then to develop technologies to mitigate that risk. Given the variations in albedo across the lunar surface, one variable that may be important is the darkness of the lunar dust, and this study was undertaken to address that concern. Three thermal control surfaces, AZ-93 white paint and AgFEP and AlFEP second surface mirrors were dusted with three different lunar dust simulants in a simulated lunar environment, and their integrated solar absorptance ( ) and thermal emittance ( ) values determined experimentally. The three simulants included JSC-1AF, a darker mare simulant, NU-LHT-1D, a light highlands simulant, and 1:1 mixture of the two. The response of AZ-93 was found to be slightly more pronounced than that of AgFEP. The increased with fractional dust coverage in both types of samples by a factor of 1.7 to 3.3, depending on the type of thermal control surface and the type of dust. The of the AZ-93 decreased by about 10 percent when fully covered by dust, while that of AgFEP increased by about 10 percent. It was found that / varied by more than a factor of two depending on the thermal control surface and the darkness of the dust. Given that the darkest simulant used in this study may be lighter than the darkest dust that could be encountered on the lunar surface, it becomes apparent that the performance degradation of thermal control surfaces due to dust on the Moon will be strongly dependent on the and of the dust in the specific locality

Gaier, James R.↗

NASA’s Identified Risks of Adverse Outcomes Due to Inadequate Human Systems Integration Architecture in Human Spaceflight

The NASA Human System Risk Board (HSRB) has the overall responsibility for tracking the evolution of the top ~30 human system risks that it has identified to be associated with human spaceflight. As part of this process, the Board is charged with maintaining a consistent, integrated process to mitigate those risks, and developing evidence-based risk posture recommendations. One of the identified risks is due to inadequate human systems integration architecture (HSIA) and a driving factor of this risk is that given decreasing real-time ground support for execution of complex operations during future exploration missions, there is a possibility of adverse performance outcomes including that crew are unable to adequately respond to unanticipated critical malfunctions or detect safety critical procedural errors. The HSRB uses Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) as a communication tool for describing how astronaut exposure to spaceflight hazards leads to meaningful mission-level health and performance outcomes and as the basis for understanding intermediate causal relationships between risk contributing factors and countermeasures that link hazards to outcomes. The HSIA risk DAG will be presented and described. Historically, critical malfunctions requiring Crew/MCC management occurred at a rate of 1.7 times per year for ISS averaged over the lifetime and 3-4 times per year in the burn in phase for the vehicle. These averages do not include EVA data, which greatly increases the incident rate. Prior experience from the Apollo program showed 10/11 crewed missions experienced significant anomalies where crew relied heavily on MCC expertise in real-time. These failure patterns are in line with those observed in other complex engineered systems (e.g., oil rigs, launch systems, commercial aviation, etc.) It is likely that general malfunction and error rates are > 10% for short duration missions (<30 days), based on past and current spaceflight operations data. Likelihood of adverse outcomes has the potential to increase as crew conduct work with new, complex systems and with less ground support. For Low Earth Orbit missions and Lunar missions less than 30 days, assuming minimal comm delays, disruptions and bandwidth limitations, malfunctions and errors can affect mission objectives and crew health but may be mitigated by ground support. For Lunar missions greater than 30 days and any potential Mars mission malfunctions and errors can have Loss of Crew and Loss of Mission consequences due to reduced ground support (communication delays, constraints and blackouts) for more complex operations, as well as reduced resupply and evacuation options.

Daniel M Buckland↗

RS-25 for the NASA Crew Launch Vehicle: The Evolution of SSME for Space Exploration

As a first step towards the fulfillment of the National Vision for Space Exploration, NASA has begun development of the Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV). The CLV will act, in conjunction with the Crew Exploration Vehicle, as the next generation human launch system to first support missions to the International Space Station (ISS), then later to support the lunar return missions, and then after that to exploration missions to Mars and beyond. The CLV is a two-stage launch vehicle with the first stage based upon the Space Shuttle solid rocket booster. The newly designed, expendable second stage is powered by a single RS-25 liquid hydrogen/liquid oxygen rocket engine. The RS-25 is essentially the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) evolved for a new mission, new environments, and new conditions. The CLV Upper-Stage Engine (USE) office has been established to develop the RS-25 in support of the CLV Project. This paper presents an outline and discussion of the risks associated with this endeavor of transforming the SSME into the upper-stage, altitude-start RS-25 and the plans being undertaken to understand and mitigate these risks. In addition, to meet the long-term requirements of the CLV launch manifest, it will be necessary to redevelop the RS-25, with its long history as the reusable SSME for the Space Shuttle Program, as an expendable engine. While the first flights of CLV will be using heritage SSME hardware, beyond that a new version of RS-25 as an expendable engine is being pursued by the CLV USE element. The goals of this work include the need to make the hardware more producible while maintaining the inherent and inherited reliability of the basic design. This paper will also discuss the risks and present the plans for developing both this next generation version of the RS-25 and for developing the manufacturing capacity necessary to support the CLV Project.

Kynard, Michael H.↗

Extreme Weather and Climate: Workshop Report

Extreme events are the aspects of climate to which human society is most sensitive. Due to both their severity and their rarity, extreme events can challenge the capacity of physical, social, economic and political infrastructures, turning natural events into human disasters. Yet, because they are low frequency events, the science of extreme events is very challenging. Among the challenges is the difficulty of connecting extreme events to longer-term, large-scale variability and trends in the climate system, including anthropogenic climate change. How can we best quantify the risks posed by extreme weather events, both in the current climate and in the warmer and different climates to come? How can we better predict them? What can we do to reduce the harm done by such events? In response to these questions, the Initiative on Extreme Weather and Climate has been created at Columbia University in New York City (extreme weather.columbia.edu). This Initiative is a University-wide activity focused on understanding the risks to human life, property, infrastructure, communities, institutions, ecosystems, and landscapes from extreme weather events, both in the present and future climates, and on developing solutions to mitigate those risks. In May 2015,the Initiative held its first science workshop, entitled Extreme Weather and Climate: Hazards, Impacts, Actions. The purpose of the workshop was to define the scope of the Initiative and tremendously broad intellectual footprint of the topic indicated by the titles of the presentations (see Table 1). The intent of the workshop was to stimulate thought across disciplinary lines by juxtaposing talks whose subjects differed dramatically. Each session concluded with question and answer panel sessions. Approximately, 150 people were in attendance throughout the day. Below is a brief synopsis of each presentation. The synopses collectively reflect the variety and richness of the emerging extreme event research agenda.

extreme weather events↗

Human System Risk Changes in 2021

The Human System Risk Board (HSRB) has the overall responsibility for tracking the evolution of the top ~30 human system risks that it has identified to be associated with human spaceflight. As part of this process, the Board is charged with maintaining a consistent, integrated process to mitigate those risks, and developing evidence-based risk posture recommendations. Risks are re-evaluated in a Continuous Risk Management (CRM) process. This session will summarize the risk posture changes that have occurred in the last year and what high level research, performance, and epidemiologic data have informed those changes. Human System Risks updated in 2021 include: Dynamic Loads, Sensorimotor, EVA, Crew Egress, Behavioral Medicine, Electrical Shock, Human System Integration Architecture (HSIA), Toxic Exposure, Bone Fracture, Cardiovascular, Medical Conditions, Renal Stone, CO2 Exposure, and Pharmacology.

Mary Van Baalen↗

PacWave South SeaRAY k2 Risk Registers

The SeaRAY is a deployable power system for maritime sensors, monitoring equipment, communications, unmanned underwater vehicles, and other similar payloads. This project is to design, deliver, and test a prototype low-power WEC that lowers the total cost of ownership and provides robust, new capabilities for customers in the maritime environment. Failure Modes, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) is conducted to systematically identify all potential failure modes and their effects on the system, and to analyze the criticality of each risk based on the likelihood of the event and the severity of the impact. Actions may then be recommended to mitigate the criticality of a risk, either by reducing the likelihood of the risk or the severity of its impact. Risk assessment is executed iteratively as an integral part of the design process. By incorporating risk assessment early in the development cycle, mitigation of risk can be achieved cost effectively. The actions recommended to mitigate risk may be subsequently executed, and as the design progresses the risk assessment is reviewed and revised. Review of the risk assessment is integrated into structured design reviews, ensuring that critical risks are comprehended and that the Project will not progress to e.g. fabrication while intolerable risks remain. The risk assessment process results in the population and maintenance of Risk Registers (RRs). Each major system (and as needed, subsystem) will have a distinct RR. This allows each system or subsystem to be assessed individually, rendering the RRs to a manageable size for review.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Arcjet Testing of Micro-Meteoroid Impacted Thermal Protection Materials

There are several harsh space environments that could affect thermal protection systems and in turn pose risks to the atmospheric entry vehicles. These environments include micrometeoroid impact, extreme cold temperatures, and ionizing radiation during deep space cruise, all followed by atmospheric entry heating. To mitigate these risks, different thermal protection material samples were subjected to multiple tests, including hyper velocity impact, cold soak, irradiation, and arcjet testing, at various NASA facilities that simulated these environments. The materials included a variety of honeycomb packed ablative materials as well as carbon-based non-ablative thermal protection systems. The present paper describes the results of the multiple test campaign with a focus on arcjet testing of thermal protection materials. The tests showed promising results for ablative materials. However, the carbon-based non-ablative system presented some concerns regarding the potential risks to an entry vehicle. This study provides valuable information regarding the capability of various thermal protection materials to withstand harsh space environments, which is critical to sample return and planetary entry missions.

Agrawal, Parul↗

Development Testing and Analysis of the Integrated Gateway-ESPRIT Bipropellant Refuelling System

The Gateway will be humanity’s first space station orbiting the Moon completed by NASA in partnership with ESA and other US and international partners. The Gateway will provide critical support to sustainable human exploration on the moon through the Artemis program. To enable the Lunar Gateway to complete its mission, on orbit refuelling is essential. The ESPRIT Refuelling Module (ERM) will provide the capability to transfer propellants, MMH and MON-3, through the Habitation and Logistics Outpost (HALO) to the Power and Propulsion Element (PPE). The transfer of these propellants carries known risks and hazards. These hazards include overpressure of the propellant lines during priming sequences between modules and during refuelling pause operations. To support the early system development and to mitigate these risks, a collaborative test program between NASA, ESA and Thales Alenia Space was completed at the Thales Alenia Space test facility in Harwell, UK. This test program integrated fluidic breadboards of the ERM, HALO and PPE modules. The objectives of the test program were to demonstrate and characterise critical performance and transient operations, inform refuelling concept of operations and to calibrate and validate numerical models of the refuelling subsystem in EcosimPro. To support the completion of this final objective a detailed model of the integrated breadboard was developed in EcosimPro and key steady-state and transient test cases were simulated. As an industry first, a National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) database correlation for Hydrofluoroether (HFE-7000) was used as a mixed oxides of nitrogen (MON-3) simulant with EcosimPro and European Space Propulsion System Simulation (ESPSS) libraries to result in a more accurate analysis for transient phenomenon such as priming. The test and simulation data showed good agreement validating the model for further system analysis as the ERM design progresses.

Refuelling↗

Assessing the use of portable air cleaners for reducing exposure to airborne diseases in a conference room with thermal stratification

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for strategies that mitigate the risk of aerosol disease transmission in indoor environments with different ventilation strategies. It is necessary for building operators to be able to estimate and compare the relative impacts of different mitigation strategies to determine suitable strategies for a particular situation. Using a validated CFD model, this study simulates the dispersion of exhaled contaminants in a thermally stratified conference room with overhead heating. The impacts of portable air-cleaners (PACs) on the room airflow and contaminant distribution were evaluated for different PAC locations and flow rates, as well as for different room setups (socially distanced or fully occupied). To obtain a holistic view of a strategy's impacts under different release scenarios, we simultaneously model the steady-state distribution of aerosolized virus contaminants from eight distinct sources in 18 cases for a total of 144 release scenarios. The simulations show that the location of the source, the PAC settings, and the room set-up can impact the average exposure and PAC effectiveness. For this studied case, the PACs reduced the room average exposure by 31%-66% relative to the baseline case. Some occupant locations were shown to have a higher-than-average exposure, particularly those seated near the airflow outlet, and occupants closest to sources tended to see the highest exposure from said source. We found that these PACs were effective at reducing the stratification caused by overhead heating, and also identified at least one sub-optimal location for placing a PAC in this space.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Applicability of the Nasa Galactic Cosmic Ray Simulator for Mice, Rats, and Minipigs

Space radiation poses multiple health risks to astronauts including cancer, cardiovascular disease, and damage to the central nervous system. Radiation from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) is the main source of these risks for missions beyond low Earth orbit to the moon and beyond. A galactic cosmic ray simulator (GCRsim) was developed at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory to better understand and mitigate these risks by simulating the complex mixed field of the GCR environment at a ground-based facility. The GCRsim delivers a radiation field to cell and animal models in a laboratory setting that is comparable to the shielded radiation environment within internal organs of astronauts in deep space missions. Previous verification studies using Monte Carlo simulations with mouse (Digimouse) and rat (Digirat) digital phantoms showed that the GCRsim yields acceptable dose homogeneity within the internal organs of these animals. Spectral characteristics of the intended space radiation environment are also accurately reproduced at radiosensitive sites in both phantoms. In this work, similar Monte Carlo simulations were performed in a minipig model (Digipig) to show the applicability and limitations of the current GCRsim for larger animal model systems. The results showed dose homogeneity in internal organs of the three animal models with GCRsim irradiation. While slightly lower average doses were seen in the minipig compared to the external beam dose, the individual voxel doses in slices of the phantoms were found to be within 6%–8% of the average voxel dose, establishing that the GCRsim can still provide a relatively homogeneous irradiation within larger animals. Furthermore, simulated dose and fluence spectral results across the relevant linear energy transfer (LET) range agreed well with the reference field in the most relevant regions of the spectra, further verifying that the GCRsim beam represents the reference field in larger animals.

Galactic cosmic rays↗

Molecular Mechanisms of Circadian Regulation During Spaceflight

Disruption of the regular environmental circadian cues in addition to stringent and demanding operational schedules are two main factors that undoubtedly impact sleep patterns and vigilant performance in the astronaut crews during spaceflight. Most research is focused on the behavioral aspects of the risk of circadian desynchronization, characterized by fatigue and health and performance decrement. A common countermeasure for circadian re-entrainment utilizes blue-green light to entrain the circadian clock and mitigate this risk. However, an effective countermeasure targeting the photoreceptor system requires that the basic circadian molecular machinery remains intact during spaceflight. The molecular clock consists of sets of proteins that perform different functions within the clock machinery: circadian oscillators (genes whose expression levels cycle during the day, keep the pass of cellular time and regulate downstream effector genes), the effector or output genes (those which impact the physiology of the tissue or organism), and the input genes (responsible for sensing the environmental cues that allow circadian entrainment). The main environmental cue is light. As opposed to the known photoreceptors (rods and cones), the non-visual light stimulus is received by a subset of the population of retinal ganglion cells called intrinsically photosensitive retinal ganglion cells (ipRGC) that express melanopsin (opsin 4 -Opn4-) as the photoreceptor. We hypothesize that spaceflight may affect ipRGC and melanopsin expression, which may be a contributing cause of circadian disruption during spaceflight. To answer this question, eyes from albino Balb/cJ mice aboard STS-133 were collected for histological analysis and gene expression profiling of the retina at 1 and 7 days after landing. Both vivarium and AEM (animal enclosure module) mice were used as ground controls. Opn4 expression was analyzed by real time RT/qPCR and retinal sections were stained for Opn4 immunofluorescence. Opn4 was decreased (abrogated in one case) in retinas that concurrently showed higher evidence of oxidative stress. We propose that oxidative stress can lead to a decrease in melanopsin expression, likely via ipRGC loss or impairment, and thus, it can be a contributing factor to circadian disruption during spaceflight. Countermeasures contemplating the use of light should therefore be complemented with melanopsin expression maintenance and/or reduction in oxidative stress.

Zanello, Susana↗

Uncertainties, Limits, and Benefits of Climate Change Mitigation for Soil Moisture Drought in Southwestern North America

Over the last two decades, southwestern North America (SWNA) has been in the grip of one of the most severe droughts of the last 1,200 years, with one third to nearly one half of its severity attributable to climate change. We analyze how the risk of extreme soil moisture droughts in SWNA, analogous to the most severe 21-year (≥ in magnitude to 2000–2020) and single-year (≥ in magnitude to 2002) events of the last several decades, changes in projections from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. By the end of the 21st century, SWNA experiences robust (R ≥ 0.80) soil moisture drying and substantial increases in extreme single-year drought risk that scale strongly with warming, spanning an 8%–26% probability of occurrence across +2–4 K. Notably, our results show that 21-year droughts analogous to 2000–2020 are up to 5 times more likely than extreme single-year droughts under all levels of warming (≈50%). These high levels of 21-year drought risk are largely invariant across scenarios because of large spring precipitation declines in half the models, shifting SWNA into a drier mean state. Despite projections of this sweeping and ostensibly inevitable increase in 21-year drought risk, climate mitigation reduces their severity by reducing the magnitude of extreme single-year droughts during these events. Our results emphasize both the importance of preparing SWNA for imminent increases in persistent drought events and constraining projected precipitation uncertainty to better resolve future long-term drought risk.

drought↗

Deferred Payment Loans for Energy Efficiency: Case Study of a Low- and Moderate-Income Home Improvement Financing Model and Potential Application to Energy Efficiency Projects

Energy efficiency can provide important benefits for low- and moderate-income households such as lower utility bills and healthier, more comfortable homes, but the upfront costs of efficiency improvements are often a barrier. Extending financing to these households can help overcome this barrier but presents its own challenges, including the financial burden of monthly payments and the risk of incurring the repercussions of nonpayment. The deferred payment loan model can give low- and moderate-income households access to energy efficiency without the financial burden of monthly payments while mitigating the risk of nonpayment. From a program sponsor perspective, when grant funds are limited or unavailable, the model provides certain advantages of both grants and financing. Like a grant, target recipients have minimal risk, but like a loan, funds can serve multiple participants since the funding can be revolved. Organizations in several parts of the country have employed the model to provide safe, healthy homes by paying for home repair and home improvement. This case study provides a detailed overview of the deferred payment loan program for home improvements known as the Home Repair Program run by the Opportunity Council, a Community Action Agency (CAA) serving three counties in Washington State. This case study also considers two other CAA-administered deferred payment loan programs – one in Wisconsin and another in Michigan.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Flight Rule Design, Implementation, Verification, and Validation for the Psyche Mission

NASA Jet Propulsion Lab (JPL)’s upcoming mission Psyche will begin its journey to the asteroid (16) Psyche in late 2022 in an effort to better understand its origins and, in turn, better understand our own. Operating the spacecraft safely will require the dedicated efforts of a small team that understands the spacecraft’s operational constraints, as well as a set of powerful spacecraft models designed to catch command errors that can pose risks to mission success. One of the responsibilities of the operations team is to ensure adherence to a set of Flight Rules written by spacecraft and instrument experts that are designed to mitigate these risks. Psyche’s innovations in Flight Rule design principles and advancements in the tools and processes used to implement and check Flight Rules are discussed. A comparison of Psyche’s approach to Flight Rules to other JPL missions will provide lessons learned for future missions that must perform constraint checking during operations. Flight Rule development faces several major challenges. First, flight rule developers must work with Subject Matter Experts (SME) to write the rules in a way that captures the intent of the constraint in a straightforward, enforceable manner. Second, software implementers must correctly interpret flight rules into code so that it meets the original intent of the SME. Finally, a means must be provided for SMEs to validate flight rule implementations without requiring them to understand the underlying software. Innovative processes intended to efficiently close the loop between stakeholders and software developers are described, such as the use of test-driven development to provide stakeholders with easy-to-review implementations. New guidelines for flight rule writing, designed to address these challenges, are described for future missions to adopt and build upon. Psyche Mission System has a variety of new and heritage tools that improve in the Flight Rule validation and checking process. Psyche developed a powerful, new tool called RandSEQ and made significant improvements to Octopusjam, two valuable tools that aid the development of Flight Rule unit tests. Advancements in the models and processes for performing sequence validation with SEQuence GENerator (SEQGEN), the primary, high-heritage tool used for automated flight rule checks on Psyche, are described. The development of new software and the advancements to existing software put Psyche at the forefront of Flight Rule technology. All missions must perform detailed constraint checking, so a comparison of Psyche’s approach to some of these items to the approaches taken by other missions such as Dawn, M2020, and Europa Clipper is done, specifically to examine SME-developer communication, tools used, and development process. Lessons learned from this comparison will be provided.

Weise, Tim↗

Modeling Spacesuit-Human Interaction for Injury Risk Identification

Performing functional tasks while inside of the space suit introduces additional ergonomic challenges which can lead to musculoskeletal stresses and injuries in astronauts. Computational modeling of the suit-body interaction can be used alongside human-in-the-loop testing to understand and mitigate these risks and potentially improve the work performance. In this work, a static rigid-body model of the human body was integrated with the space suit and the process is described. This model enables prediction of the resulting joint torques and musculoskeletal loading from a simulated extravehicular activity (EVA) task. For representative EVA tasks, joint torque and body angles were used as parameters to predict the muscle strength required to achieve the task, as well as the percentage of the general and astronaut-like population that could achieve that strength demand. Population strength capability can be used as an indicator of the difficulty of a task and the level of injury risk for the given task types and crew anthropometry. The sensitivity of the model to inputs such as body joint location within the space suit and individual anthropometry will also be evaluated. Future work will use a database of3D human body scans and the movements of the body inside the suit during different EVA tasks to identify potential soft tissue contact points. The specific locations and magnitudes of contacts between the body and suit are expected to identify risk of repetitive tissue contact stresses. Overall, this model will provide a new tool to structurally identify the injury risks of EVA tasks and evaluate alternate strategies to reduce injury risk.

Garima Gupta↗

Estimating the influence of field inventory sampling intensity on forest landscape model performance for determining high-severity wildfire risk

Abstract Historically, fire has been essential in Southwestern US forests. However, a century of fire-exclusion and changing climate created forests which are more susceptible to uncharacteristically severe wildfires. Forest managers use a combination of thinning and prescribed burning to reduce forest density to help mitigate the risk of high-severity fires. These treatments are laborious and expensive, therefore optimizing their impact is crucial. Landscape simulation models can be useful in identifying high risk areas and assessing treatment effects, but uncertainties in these models can limit their utility in decision making. In this study we examined underlying uncertainties in the initial vegetation layer by leveraging a previous study from the Santa Fe fireshed and using new inventory plots from 111 stands to interpolate the initial forest conditions. We found that more inventory plots resulted in a different geographic distribution and wider range of the modelled biomass. This changed the location of areas with high probability of high-severity fires, shifting the optimal location for management. The increased range of biomass variability from using a larger number of plots to interpolate the initial vegetation layer also influenced ecosystem carbon dynamics, resulting in simulated forest conditions that had higher rates of carbon uptake. We conclude that the initial forest layer significantly affects fire and carbon dynamics and is dependent on both number of plots, and sufficient representation of the range of forest types and biomass density.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗