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Impact, a Tool Suite for Crew Health and Performance System Trade Analyses and Decision Support - Status of Development

Mission planners, systems engineers, and clinicians that support crew health and performance face very difficult choices on upcoming exploration missions. Given that there will be a heavily constrained mass and volume allocation for a medical system on these missions, what medical capability should be manifested to minimize both medical risk and mission risk? Given that not all promising research and technology proposals can be funded, how can proposals be prioritized so that those funded research investments produce the maximum benefit in reducing overall medical risk? The Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) project seeks to answer these kinds of questions and others to support upcoming exploration missions. IMPACT enables risk-informed and evidence-based trade space analysis for future space vehicles, missions, and systems. This presentation will discuss the long-term HRP and ExMC vision for the larger ecosystem of tools, which include an updated medical database (consisting of an Evidence Library for medical conditions and a medical item database (MedID) for medical resources), dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) capabilities, System Modeling Language (SysML) models, and contextual data visualizations of output data. IMPACT is the result of a multi-center collaborative effort. The trade space analyses performed by IMPACT can directly inform mission, vehicle, and habitat development by quantifying medical risk, given a design reference mission, crew attributes and a set of medical capabilities. This presentation will update the audience on the development status of the tool suite, its constituent parts and the plans for when it will deploy as an operational product, currently scheduled for the end of FY22. Recent development successes on the IMPACT project include the ability to cluster medical resources into medical capabilities and mutually-dependent bundles, the ability to perform trade analyses on different medical sets, different DRMs, and different crew complements, and the ability to specify mission segments as periods of time assigned to one or more members of the crew during which unique mission events occur (e.g., extravehicular activities, surface operations, gravity well adaptations, etc.). IMPACT is gearing up for its verification and validation phase to compile the data package necessary for a successful Transition to Operations (TtO), per the guidance in NPR 8900.1B .

IMPACT↗

IMPACT, a Tool Suite for Crew Health and Performance System Trade Analyses and Decision Support - Status of Development

Mission planners, systems engineers, and clinicians that support crew health and performance face very difficult choices on upcoming exploration missions. Given that there will be a heavily constrained mass and volume allocation for a medical system on these missions, what medical capability should be manifested to minimize both medical risk and mission risk? Given that not all promising research and technology proposals can be funded, how can proposals be prioritized so that those funded research investments produce the maximum benefit in reducing overall medical risk? The Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) project seeks to answer these kinds of questions and others to support upcoming exploration missions. IMPACT enables risk-informed and evidence-based trade space analysis for future space vehicles, missions, and systems. This presentation will discuss the long-term HRP and ExMC vision for the larger ecosystem of tools, which include an updated medical database, consisting of an Evidence Library for medical conditions and a medical item database (MedID) for medical resources, dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) capabilities, System Modeling Language (SysML) models, and contextual data visualizations of output data. IMPACT is the result of a multi-center collaborative effort. The trade space analyses performed by IMPACT can directly inform mission, vehicle, and habitat development by quantifying medical risk, given a design reference mission, crew attributes and a set of medical capabilities. This presentation will update the audience on the development status of the tool suite as it nears its System Acceptance Review (SAR). It will review IMPACT’s constituent parts, briefly discuss typical outputs and outline the plans for transitioning to operations, currently scheduled for later in FY23. Recent development successes on the IMPACT project include the integration of the Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) v2.0 to accommodate segmented missions with multiple carriers and medical systems, full onboarding of the IMPACT Medical Database (IMPACT-MD), clustering medical resources and skills into medical capabilities and mutually-dependent bundles, and the ability to perform trade analyses on different medical sets, different design reference missions (DRM), with different crew complements and extra-vehicular activity (EVA) schedule.

IMPACT↗

Impact, A Tool Suite for Crew Health and Performance System Trade Analyses and Decision to Support - Transition to Operations

Mission planners, systems engineers, and clinicians that support crew health and performance face very difficult choices on upcoming exploration missions. Given that there will be a heavily constrained mass and volume allocation for a medical system on these missions, what medical capability should be manifested to minimize both medical risk and mission risk? Given that not all promising research and technology proposals can be funded, how can proposals be prioritized so that those funded research investments produce the maximum benefit in reducing overall medical risk? The Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) project seeks to answer these kinds of questions and others to support upcoming exploration missions. IMPACT enables risk-informed and evidence-based trade space analysis for future space vehicles, missions, and systems. This presentation will discuss the long-term HRP and ExMC vision for the larger ecosystem of tools, which include an updated medical database, consisting of an Evidence Library for medical conditions and a medical item database (MedID) for medical resources, dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) capabilities, System Modeling Language (SysML) models, and contextual data visualizations of output data. IMPACT is the result of a multi-center collaborative effort. The trade space analyses performed by IMPACT can directly inform mission, vehicle, and habitat development by quantifying medical risk, given a design reference mission, crew attributes and a set of medical capabilities. This presentation will update the audience on the development status of the IMPACT tool suite as it comes out of its System Acceptance Review (SAR) and nears Transition to Operations (TTO). It will review IMPACT’s constituent parts, briefly discuss typical outputs, and outline the plans for transitioning to operations, currently scheduled for later in FY24. Recent development successes on the IMPACT project include the integration of the Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) v2.0 to accommodate segmented missions with multiple carriers and medical systems, full onboarding of the IMPACT Medical Database (IMPACT-MD), clustering medical resources and skills into medical capabilities and mutually-dependent bundles, verification of IMPACT-MD, and the ability to perform trade analyses on different medical sets, different design reference missions (DRM), with different crew complements and extra-vehicular activity (EVA) schedules.

IMPACT↗

IMPACT, A Tool Suite for Crew Health and Performance System Trade Analyses and Decision Support- Transition to Operations

Mission planners, systems engineers, and clinicians that support crew health and performance face very difficult choices on upcoming exploration missions. Given that there will be a heavily constrained mass and volume allocation for a medical system on these missions, what medical capability should be manifested to minimize both medical risk and mission risk? Given that not all promising research and technology proposals can be funded, how can proposals be prioritized so that those funded research investments produce the maximum benefit in reducing overall medical risk? The Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) project seeks to answer these kinds of questions and others to support upcoming exploration missions. IMPACT enables risk-informed and evidence-based trade space analysis for future space vehicles, missions, and systems. This presentation will discuss the long-term HRP and ExMC vision for the larger ecosystem of tools, which include an updated medical database, consisting of an Evidence Library for medical conditions and a medical item database (MedID) for medical resources, dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) capabilities, System Modeling Language (SysML) models, and contextual data visualizations of output data. IMPACT is the result of a multi-center collaborative effort. The trade space analyses performed by IMPACT can directly inform mission, vehicle, and habitat development by quantifying medical risk, given a design reference mission, crew attributes and a set of medical capabilities. This presentation will update the audience on the development status of the IMPACT tool suite as it comes out of its System Acceptance Review (SAR) and nears Transition to Operations (TTO). It will review IMPACT’s constituent parts, briefly discuss typical outputs, and outline the plans for transitioning to operations, currently scheduled for later in FY24. Recent development successes on the IMPACT project include the integration of the Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) v2.0 to accommodate segmented missions with multiple carriers and medical systems, full onboarding of the IMPACT Medical Database (IMPACT-MD), clustering medical resources and skills into medical capabilities and mutually-dependent bundles, verification of IMPACT-MD, and the ability to perform trade analyses on different medical sets, different design reference missions (DRM), with different crew complements and extra-vehicular activity (EVA) schedules.

IMPACT↗

OSIRIS-REx Curation: The First Year with Bennu Samples on Earth

The OSIRIS-REx (Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security – Regolith Explorer) sample return capsule landed on the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR) on September 24, 2023. Preparations for the curation of the sample from asteroid Bennu inside of this capsule spanned more than a decade. On the morning of landing, the sample return capsule was brought to a temporary cleanroom at UTTR for initial de-integration and connection of the sample canister to a nitrogen gas purge to protect the sample from modification by the terrestrial atmosphere. In the week following landing, the sample canister was flown to Houston while on nitrogen purge, transferred to a nitrogen atmosphere glovebox at NASA Johnson Space Center in which the canister lid was removed revealing small amounts of sample on the inside of the canister lid and avionics deck, some of this sample was allocated rapidly to the mission sample analysis team as “quick look” samples. Next, the Touch-and-Go sample acquisition mechanism (TAGSAM) head was disassembled inside of a specially designed glovebox. A challenge arose during one of the last stages of disassembly when two fasteners resisted being loosened. The curation team was able to remove 70.3 grams of asteroid sample from the TAGSAM head with those fasteners in-place and began initial sample processing which supported long-term curation of hermetically sealed and frozen samples, transfer of some samples to remote storage, and allocation of aggregate samples to the mission sample analysis team. Meanwhile, curation engineers developed a tool to remove the stubborn fasteners without contaminating the remaining sample, enabling the remaining bulk sample to be transferred to long-term storage trays in January 2024. With this second part of the bulk sample, the returned bulk asteroid sample reached 121.6 grams. During disassembly and prior to sealing the bulk sample trays into long-term storage containers, archival photographs were collected. Select particles are gradually being XCT scanned while inside of containers that hold a nitrogen atmosphere. The initial OSIRIS-REx sample catalog was released in spring 2024 with an update in fall 2024. The curation team will be busy working to allocate samples to scientists around the world for the foreseeable future.

Curation↗

Options for Staging Orbits in Cis-Lunar Space

NASA has been studying options to conduct missions beyond Low Earth Orbit, but within the Earth-Moon system, in preparation for deep space exploration including human missions to Mars. Referred to as the Proving Ground, this arena of exploration activities will enable the development of human spaceflight systems and operations to satisfy future exploration objectives beyond the cis-lunar environment. One option being considered includes the deployment of a habitable element or elements, which could be used as a central location for aggregation of supplies and resources for human missions in cis-lunar space and beyond. Characterizing candidate orbit locations for this asset and the impacts on system design and mission operations is important in the overall assessment of the options being considered. The orbits described in this paper were initially selected by taking advantage of previous studies conducted by NASA and the work of other authors. In this paper orbits are assessed for their relative attractiveness based on various factors. First, a set of constraints related to the capability of the combined Orion and SLS system to deliver humans and cargo to and from the orbit are evaluated. Second, the ability to support potential lunar surface activities is considered. Finally, deployed assets intended to spend multiple years in the Proving Ground would ideally require minimal station keeping costs to reduce the mass budget allocated to this function. Additional mission design drivers include potential for uninterrupted communication with deployed assets, thermal, communications, and other operational implications. The results of the characterization and evaluation of the selected orbits indicate a Near Rectilinear Orbit (NRO) is an attractive candidate as an aggregation point or staging location for operations. In this paper, the NRO is further described in terms which balance a number of key attributes that favor a variety of mission classes to meet multiple, sometimes competing, constraints.

Whitley, Ryan↗

Automated Network Services for Exascale Data Movement

The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) experiments distribute data by leveraging a diverse array of National Research and Education Networks (NRENs), where experiment data management systems treat networks as a “blackbox” resource. After the High Luminosity upgrade, the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) experiment alone will produce roughly 0.5 exabytes of data per year. NREN Networks are a critical part of the success of CMS and other LHC experiments. However, during data movement, NRENs are unaware of data priorities, importance, or need for quality of service, and this poses a challenge for operators to coordinate the movement of data and have predictable data flows across multi-domain networks. The overarching goal of SENSE (The Software-defined network for End-to-end Networked Science at Exascale) is to enable National Labs and universities to request and provision end-to-end intelligent network services for their application workflows leveraging SDN (Software-Defined Networking) capabilities. This work aims to allow LHC Experiments and Rucio, the data management software used by CMS Experiment, to allocate and prioritize certain data transfers over the wide area network. In this paper, we will present the current progress of the integration of SENSE, Multi-domain end-to-end SDN Orchestration with QoS (Quality of Service) capabilities, with Rucio, the data management software used by CMS Experiment.

Balcas, Justas↗

Definition of a Technology Validation Mission for P-band Reflectometry using Signals of Opportunity

Root-Zone Soil Moisture (RZSM) (moisture profile in the top meter of soil) and Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (total snow pack water content) are identified as priority target variables in the ESAS 2017 decadal survey [1] with critical roles in hydrology and water management. RZSM estimates are vital for understanding multiple Earth system processes and forecasting (for example, droughts [2]). Simultaneous knowledge of surface and RZSM could enable a breakthrough in estimating key unobserved hydrologic fluxes and reduce uncertainty in net ecosystem exchange (NEE), carbon balance [3] discharge estimates, and crop yield forecasts [4] .With the high albedo and insulating properties of snow, monitoring, SWE accumulation would provide a key constraint on the potential runoff during spring ablation while monitoring SWE disappearance rates would provide a key constraint on SWE partition into runoff vs. infiltration/recharge. [5] demonstrated that knowledge of early-spring SWE generally contributes most to streamflow forecast skill in the Western U.S. SWE is also a source of water storage that provides the water resources during spring snowmelt. Despite such potentially transformative contributions, accurate RZSM and SWE measurements are unattainable with current technology. While active/passive L-band methods (e.g. SMAP, SMOS) can reliably retrieve surface soil moisture in the top 5 cm of soil [6], [7]. RZSM estimates are only available through model assimilation of brightness temperatures with a radiative transfer and land surface models [8]. SWE estimation uses multi-frequency passive microwave techniques (e.g. [9]-[11]), which have significant problems with deeper snow and in forested and mountainous environments [12]. Signals of opportunity (SoOp) in P-band (200-400 MHz) is a new remote sensing technique with the capability of estimating both essential hydrologic variables, RZSM and SWE, circumventing many of the aforementioned limitations under all weather conditions day and night. SoOp is the re-utilization of existing powerful satellite transmissions within bands allocated for communications or navigation. P-band SoOp sensitivity to soil moisture has been demonstrated in an airborne experiment over Oklahoma in 2016 [13]. Recent theory [14] and experiments [15] have also confirmed that the reflection coefficient phase is proportional to SWE.

Garrison, J. L.↗

System Engineering on the Use for Ares I,V - the Simpler, the Better

The Ares I and Ares V Vehicles will utilize the J-2X rocket engine developed for NASA by the Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne Company. The J-2X is an improved higher power version of the original J-2 engine used during the Apollo program. With higher power and updated requirements for safety and performance, the J-2X becomes a new engine using state-of-the-art design methodology, materials and manufacturing processes. The implementation of Systems Engineering (SE) principles enables the rapid J-2X development program to remain aligned with the ARES I and V vehicle programs, Meeting the aggressive development schedule is a challenge. Coordinating the best expertise thai NASA and PWR have to offer requires effectively utilizing resources at multiple sites. This presents formidable communication challenges. SE allows honest and open discussions of issues and problems. This simple idea is often overlooked in large and complex SE programs. Regular and effective meetings linking SE objectives to component designs are used to voice differences of opinions with customer and contractor in attendance so that the best mutual decisions can be made on the shortest possible schedule. Regular technical interchange meetings on secure program wide computer networks and CM processes are effective,in the "Controlled Change" process that exemplifies good SE. Good communication is a key effective SE implementation. The System of Systems approach is the vision of the Orion program which facilitates the establishment of dynamic SE processes at all levels including the engine. SE enables requirements evolution by facilitating organizational and process agility. Flow down and distribution of requirements is controlled by Allocation Reports which breakdown numerical design objectives (weight, reliability, etc.) into quanta goals for each component area. Linked databases of design and verification requirements helps eliminate redundancy and potential mistakes inherent m separated systems. Another tool, the Architecture Design Description, is being used to control J-2X system architecture and effectively communicate configuration changes to those involved in the design process. But the proof is in successful program accomplishment. The SE is the methodology being used to meet the challenge of completing J-2X engine certification 2 years ahead of any engine program ever developed at PWR. The Ares I SE system of systems has delivered according to expectations thus far. All major design reviews (SRR. PDR, CDR) have been successfully conducted to satisfy overall program objectives using SE as the basis for accomplishment. The paper describes SE tools and techniques utilized to achieve this success.

Kelly, William↗

Cognitive Functioning in Space Exploration Missions: A Human Requirement

Solving cognitive issues in the exploration missions will require implementing results from both Human Behavior and Performance, and Space Human Factors Engineering. Operational and research cognitive requirements need to reflect a coordinated management approach with appropriate oversight and guidance from NASA headquarters. First, this paper will discuss one proposed management method that would combine the resources of Space Medicine and Space Human Factors Engineering at JSC, other NASA agencies, the National Space Biomedical Research Institute, Wyle Labs, and other academic or industrial partners. The proposed management is based on a Human Centered Design that advocates full acceptance of the human as a system equal to other systems. Like other systems, the human is a system with many subsystems, each of which has strengths and limitations. Second, this paper will suggest ways to inform exploration policy about what is needed for optimal cognitive functioning of the astronaut crew, as well as requirements to ensure necessary assessment and intervention strategies for the human system if human limitations are reached. Assessment strategies will include clinical evaluation and fitness-to-perform evaluations. Clinical intervention tools and procedures will be available to the astronaut and space flight physician. Cognitive performance will be supported through systematic function allocation, task design, training, and scheduling. Human factors requirements and guidelines will lead to well-designed information displays and retrieval systems that reduce crew time and errors. Means of capturing process, design, and operational requirements to ensure crew performance will be discussed. Third, this paper will describe the current plan of action, and future challenges to be resolved before a lunar or Mars expedition. The presentation will include a proposed management plan for research, involvement of various organizations, and a timetable of deliverables.

Fiedler, Edan↗

Aggregation in bottom-up vulnerability assessments and equity implications: The case of Jordanian households’ water supply

Bottom-up methods for water resources modeling rely on acceptability thresholds to find, through a response surface, which deeply uncertain futures lead to system failure. They commonly treat water users as aggregate actors, which may preclude analysis of the equity impacts of interventions. This paper explores how aggregation choices for large groups of water users lead to different policy recommendations in response surface assessments. Herein, two aggregation methods with varying parameters are considered: percentile satisfaction targets and generalized mean. A 2-dimensional stress-test assessment across groundwater availability and population is applied to household water supply in Jordan. The study compares six different policies covering supply enhancement and rebalancing, using a country-wide multi-agent model that characterizes households across socioeconomic strata. For different aggregation levels, policies are ordered by their associated robustness index. Results show that aggregation choices may modify response surfaces as much as policy changes and strongly determine policy preference. Modifying allocation rules can substantially reduce the disparity in household vulnerability. Preferences defined by aggregation intervals provide a finer understanding of trade-offs among water users and may improve deliberation over equity under deep uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evolving Competitive Markets in SAPP: Leveraging Competitive Wholesale Electricity Markets to Drive Renewable Generation Capacity in the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP)

The SADC region has significant natural resource potential to increase renewable energy generation, improve electricity reliability, and support economic development. This research finds an apparent lack of confidence from electricity infrastructure investors in SAPP wholesale electricity markets, which increases risk perception and lowers the likelihood of capital deployment. With respect to free market fundamentals, competitive market obstacles and renewable energy development obstacles are characterized. Stakeholders identified the top obstacles to well-functioning competitive markets as insufficient transmission infrastructure for interconnection and regional movement of electricity, dominance of national single-buyer markets, and lack of or weak nation-state regulatory frameworks. Stakeholders prioritized the top three obstacles for renewable energy development as a lack of viable commercial arrangements for variable renewable energy (VRE) balancing, lack of functional and consistent nation-level regulations, and higher project costs related to reliance on imported equipment. With respect to potential solution options, stakeholders prioritized the development of new cost allocation and finance methods to facilitate new transmission expansion, training to educate new or potential new market entrants on SAPP processes, as well as modeling and analysis of regional SAPP participation benefits disaggregated to the nation-state level. From these perspectives, this research identified strategy options for consideration including transitioning SAPP to a regional transmission operator (RTO) for operation and planning of cross-border transmission facilities and market administration, shifting operations of SAPP member transmission systems to Independent System Operators (ISOs), establishing a regional regulatory authority and enhancing market data transparency. Implementing these reforms is expected to be challenging, but not insurmountable, given the domestic political, legal, and jurisdictional complexities of the SADC region.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Management of Risk and Uncertainty Through Optimized Co-Operation of Transmission Systems and Microgrids with Responsive Loads (Final Report)

The evolution of the power system to the reliable, efficient and sustainable system of the future will involve development of both demand- and supply-side technology and operations. Ambitious national and state-level goals around the decarbonization of electricity relies on the integration of very high levels of renewable resources, most of which are variable and intermittent. The use of demand response is an ideal approach to counterbalance the intermittency of renewable generation and brings the consumer into the spotlight. Until recently, very little research had been conducted on the co-optimization of these two systems due to computational limitations. However, advances in computational capabilities, and the judicious use of decomposition methods and innovative approximation methods for high-dimension dynamic programming made this goal a viable objective for this project, leading to a fundamental shift in the ability to integrate and fully utilize demand-side resources. To this end, the modeling framework developed introduces a novel co-optimization framework, to include the operations of both the transmission and distribution systems (or microgrids) in operational decision making. This framework was used to analyze renewable and distributed generation along with responsive demand and to compare the capability of co-optimized systems to perform with higher levels of variable renewables. Results show that the use of a bi-level optimization approach is an appropriate structure, capable of co-optimizing a transmission system with multiple distribution systems and microgrids. While increasing the number of connected systems provides increasing flexibility for renewables integration this can also the economic benefits to the low-voltage subsystems with each additional system connected. Comparison of a traditional single-level decision structure with the co-optimization approach illustrates a reduction in overall system cost under co-optimization, while specific cost allocations to transmission and distribution systems are changed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Optimal Communication Topology Construction and Sensor Selection for Independent Airspace Surveillance

The paper presents an approach with no estimation feedback to sensors selection and communication network topology computation for independent airspace surveillance with maximum outcome and minimum cost using ground based distributed sensing, computing and communication network infrastructure. The selection criteria includes maximum airspace coverage with minimal resources, minimum communication time and power consumption while guaranteeing the system observability and providing in-time high quality information to both stationary and mobile users. The developed algorithms use multi-objective optimization strategy taking into account trade-offs between conflicting objectives and are implemented using off-the-shelf computational tools. The algorithms are validated in a desktop simulation environment using synthetic sensors data generated for a simulated multi-vehicle flight scenario in the selected regional airspace and parameters of a notional wireless communication network.

Distributed sensing↗

Game theoretic modeling and optimization of competition and collaboration in dual channel electronic waste supply chains

The rapid growth of electronic waste (e-waste) presents critical challenges for sustainable resource recovery and environmental protection. This study develops a dual-channel closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) model formulated as a hierarchical Stackelberg game, that integrates dynamic pricing and cost-sharing mechanisms to optimize both economic and environmental outcomes. The model explicitly captures strategic interactions between manufacturer-led and third-party recycling channels, accounting for consumer behavior, regulatory incentives, and market competition. Numerical simulations conducted (implemented over a four-iteration horizon using a commercial optimization solver) show that, relative to the baseline equilibrium, manufacturer profit increases from 11.6 thousand USD to 37.9 thousand USD (+226.8%), total recycled volume rises from 7,848 to 7,942 units (+1.2%), and collector profit nearly doubles under cost-sharing, enabling more equitable profit distribution. Furthermore, scenario-based simulations across Sub-Saharan Africa, high-income economies, and emerging Asian industrial countries reveal that infrastructure quality, policy intensity, and labor costs critically shape recycling efficiency and profit allocation. These findings demonstrate that subsidies alone are insufficient to ensure system efficiency. Instead, coordinated strategies that integrate internal incentive alignment with context-sensitive policy support are required. Overall, this study offers a robust framework for designing resilient, efficient, and regionally adaptable e-waste management systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Storing Affordability: Battery Storage as an Asset to Reduce Data Center Cost Shifts

This report examines how battery energy storage systems (BESS) can help utilities accommodate large load growth while protecting affordability for existing ratepayers. Rapid growth in electricity demand from artificial intelligence (AI) data centers is straining the U.S. grid. Furthermore, many new data centers are entering rural markets, which could offer economic benefits but may also pose implementation challenges for smaller utilities. At the same time, retail electricity prices are increasing faster than inflation, elevating customer affordability as a key challenge. While data centers have not been the primary driver of increases in residential prices to date, they have pushed wholesale energy and capacity prices higher in several markets. Fundamental utility cost-allocation principles show that data center growth can be rate-positive for existing customers only if new peak demand grows faster than the costs a utility must incur to serve it. Several factors, including a utility’s degree of wholesale market exposure, forecast uncertainty and stranded-asset risk, and tariff design can determine the outcome of load growth on retail rates. Energy storage can make several affordability contributions in the face of this landscape of uncertainty and market volatility, including deferral of higher-cost grid investments through improved utilization of existing assets and flexibility of new large loads, insulation from volatile wholesale prices through peak shaving, and reliability support to address grid risks stemming from the behavior of AI data center loads. Different potential BESS deployment pathways—utility-scale front-of-the-meter systems, aggregated small-scale storage installations, and data center-sited behind-the-meter storage—are compared against each other and against conventional capacity alternatives. This framework is intended as a conceptual resource to utilities, particularly smaller public utilities with rural service territories, who may be considering the role that energy storage can play in insulating existing ratepayers from data center cost shifts.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Satellite-Based Drought Reporting on the Navajo Nation

The Navajo Nation (NN) is the largest reservation in the US, and faces challenges related to water management during long-term and widespread drought episodes. The Navajo Nation is a federally recognized tribe, which has boundaries within Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah. The Navajo Nation has a land area of over 70,000 square kilometers. The Navajo Nation Department of Water Resources (NNDWR) reports on drought and climatic conditions through the use of regional Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values and a network of in-situ rainfall, streamflow, and climate data. However, these data sources lack the spatial detail and consistent measurements needed to provide a coherent understanding of the drought regime within the Nation's regional boundaries. This project, as part of NASA's Western Water Applications Office (WWAO), improves upon the recently developed Drought Severity Assessment Tool (DSAT) to ingest satellite-based precipitation data to generate SPI values for specific administrative boundaries within the reservation. The tool aims to: (1) generate SPI values and summary statistics for regions of interest on various timescales, (2) to visualize SPI values within a web-map application, and (3) produce maps and comparative statistical outputs in the format required for annual drought reporting. The co-development of the DSAT with NN partners is integral to increasing the sustained use of Earth Observations for water management applications. This tool will provide data to support the NN in allocation of drought contingency dollars to the regions most adversely impacted by declines in water availability.

Satellite-based↗

Peer-to-Peer Energy Trading under Network Constraints Based on Generalized Fast Dual Ascent

We report the wide deployment of renewable energy resources, combined with a more proactive demand-side management, is inducing a new paradigm in both power system operation and electricity market trading, which especially boosts the emergence of the peer-to-peer (P2P) market. A more flexible local market mechanism is highly desirable in response to fast changes in renewable power generation at the distribution network level. Moreover, large-scale implementation of P2P energy trading inevitably affects the secure and economic operation of the distribution network. This paper presents a new P2P electricity trading framework with distribution network security constraints considered using the generalized fast dual ascent method. First, an event-driven local P2P market framework is presented to facilitate short-term or immediate local energy transactions. Then, the sensitivity analysis of nodal voltage and network loss with respect to nodal power injections is used to evaluate the impacts of P2P transactions on the distribution network, which ensures the secure operation of the distribution system. Thereby, the external operational constraints are internalized, and the cost of P2P energy trading can be appropriately allocated in an endogenous way. Moreover, a generalized fast dual ascent method is employed to implement distributed market-clearing efficiently. Finally, numerical results indicate that the proposed model could guarantee secure operation of the distribution system with P2P energy trading, and the solution method enjoys good convergence performance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗