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At least 937 records · Page 52

Grid Spacing Sensitivities of Simulated Mid-Latitude and Tropical Mesoscale Convective Systems in the Convective Gray Zone

The main objective of this study is to observationally constrain processes in tropical and midlatitude mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), and to use these constraints for model evaluation. To accomplish this, we leverage MCS observations collected at the U.S. DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site in Oklahoma and ARM's mobile GoAmazon2014/15 site in Manaus, Brazil (MAO). We simulate 13 and 11 of these observed MCSs at the SGP and MAO site, respectively, using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at 12-, 4-, 2-, and 1-km horizontal grid spacing. Observations from radiosondes, surface meteorology, and radar wind profilers are used to characterize MCS properties, such as MCS timing and location, cold pools, and convective drafts, and evaluate these simulations. SGP cases are found in better agreement with observations than MAO cases, and when simulated at 2 km, outperform simulations at 1 km regarding the timing of MCS overpass and the accuracy of surface variable trends. MAO simulations suggest a consistent improvement in model accuracy with increasing model resolution in depicting the downdraft structure, the timing of MCSs, and the surface variables changes, except for the latter two metrics at 2 km. Deficiencies are still evident at km-scales, suggesting the need for higher resolution to simulate tropical MCSs. Overall, location-dependent improvements in MCS representation are obtained with the increasing model resolution, prompting the evaluation of sub-km scale simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cryogenic Detector Development for SuperCDMS

The dark matter (DM) problem is currently one of the most pressing issues facing physics. This thesis presents some of my work and contributions to the detectors employed by the Super Cryogenic Dark Matter Search (SuperCDMS), one of the many experiments currently investigating DM. First, we present an overview of astrophysical and cosmological observations to give insight into our current understanding of DM and its role in the universe. Some potential particle DM candidates are also discussed. Then we describe the SuperCDMS experiment and relevant detector technologies. We go into particular detail in discussing the phonon sensors, deriving the relationships that define their fundamental working principles and describing their practical deployment. We also discuss the main noise contributions to the phonon sensors which can limit experimental sensitivity. We then present some work related to reconstruction of event position in the detectors, including new analysis techniques and a n ovel cryogenic calibration source mover we have developed and tested. We also present tests of improving experimental scalability by increasing individual detector masses using the largest-diameter cryogenic Si detectors yet operated. We present first experimental results from the novel use of $(n,\gamma)$ processes to calibrate the low energy nuclear recoil energy scale. This work is essential to understand how DM-nuclear interactions will manifest in semiconductor detectors. We also take a short look at the newest, most sensitive detectors currently operated by SuperCDMS and discuss how they are allowing new insights into critical physics processes in all SuperCDMS detectors. Finally, we demonstrate how some of the various improvements discussed in this work can improve the experimental reach of the next generation of SuperCDMS at SNOLAB.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

The impact of cloud microphysics and ice nucleation on Southern Ocean clouds assessed with single-column modeling and instrument simulators

Abstract. Supercooled liquid clouds are common at higher latitudes (especially over the Southern Ocean) and are critical for constraining climate projections. We take advantage of the Macquarie Island Cloud and Radiation Experiment (MICRE) to perform an analysis of observed and simulated cloud processes over the Southern Ocean in a region and season dominated by supercooled liquid clouds. Using a single-column version of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS), we compare two different cloud microphysical schemes to ground-based observations of cloud, precipitation, and radiation over a 2.5-month period (1 January–17 March 2017). Both schemes are able to reproduce aspects of the cloud and radiation observations during MICRE to within the uncertainty of the data when the thermodynamic profile is prescribed with relaxation. There are differences in water mass and representation of reflectivity between the schemes. A sensitivity study of the cloud microphysics schemes, one a bulk one-moment scheme and the other a two-moment scheme with prediction of mass and number, indicates that several key processes create differences between the schemes. Surface radiative fluxes and total water path are highly sensitive to the formation and fall speed of precipitation. The prediction of hydrometeor number with the two-moment scheme yields a better comparison with observed reflectivity and radiative fluxes, despite predicting higher liquid water contents than observed. With the two-moment scheme, we are also able to test the sensitivity of the results to the input of liquid cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN). The cloud properties and resulting radiative effects are found to be sensitive to the CCN and IN concentrations. More CCN and IN increase liquid and ice water paths, respectively. Thus, both the dynamic environment and aerosols, integrated through the cloud microphysics, are important for properly representing Southern Ocean cloud radiative effects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Field evaluation of semi‐automated moisture estimation from geophysics using machine learning

Geophysical methods can provide three-dimensional (3D), spatially continuous estimates of soil moisture. However, point-to-point comparisons of geophysical properties to measure soil moisture data are frequently unsatisfactory, resulting in geophysics being used for qualitative purposes only. This is because (1) geophysics requires models that relate geophysical signals to soil moisture, (2) geophysical methods have potential uncertainties resulting from smoothing and artifacts introduced from processing and inversion, and (3) results from multiple geophysical methods are not easily combined within a single soil moisture estimation framework. To investigate these potential limitations, an irrigation experiment was performed wherein soil moisture was monitored through time, and several surface geophysical datasets indirectly sensitive to soil moisture were collected before and after irrigation: ground penetrating radar, electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), and frequency domain electromagnetics (FDEM). Data were exported in both raw and processed form, and then snapped to a common 3D grid to facilitate moisture prediction by standard calibration techniques, multivariate regression, and machine learning. A combination of inverted ERT data, raw FDEM, and inverted FDEM data was most informative for predicting soil moisture using a random regression forest model (one-thousand 60/40 training/test cross-validation folds produced root mean squared errors ranging from 0.025–0.046 cm 3 /cm 3 ). This cross-validated model was further supported by a separate evaluation using a test set from a physically separate portion of the study area. Machine learning was conducive to a semi-automated model-selection process that could be used for other sites and datasets to locally improve accuracy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data and scripts associated with the manuscript "Using Mutual Information for Global Sensitivity Analysis on Watershed Modeling"

This package contains the data and scripts used in "Using Mutual Information for Global Sensitivity Analysis on Watershed Modeling" (Jiang et al., 2022). The ARW_SWAT.zip file contains the SWAT simulation and the sensitivity analysis result in the American River Watershed. The Portage_SWAT.zip file contains the SWAT simulation and the sensitivity analysis result in the Portage River Watershed. The src folder contains the source code of sensitivity analysis and plotting functions. The notebooks folder contains the Jupyter notebooks for performing sensitivity analysis and other post analyses.Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) often is applied to assess the sensitivity of model outputs to their inputs using ensemble simulations. However, increasing model complexity and the associated computational cost have limited the use of most GSA approaches for process-based watershed models. We propose to use Mutual Information (MI) as a computationally efficient GSA method for watershed modeling. Such MI computed from several hundred realizations usually can capture nonlinear relationships between inputs and outputs of interest. We perform MI-based watershed sensitivity analyses in studies of the Portage River Watershed in Ohio and the American River Watershed in Washington. In these studies, MI is used to evaluate the sensitivity of river discharges simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to no less than 20 parameters for each watershed. Our MI-based sensitivity analyses achieved convergence with about 300~500 realizations, a small fraction of the ensemble size (i.e., several thousand) required by the Sobol method. Nevertheless, MI yields similar sensitivity ranking compared to the Sobol method, especially for sensitive parameters. Our study thus sheds new light on the use of MI as an affordable GSA method for computationally intensive models such as the hyper-resolution, watershed hydrobiogeochemical models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Transport coefficient sensitivities in a semi-analytic model for magnetized liner inertial fusion

Performance of magnetized liner inertial fusion (MagLIF) experiments is highly dependent on transport processes including magnetized heat flows and magnetic flux losses. Magnetohydrodynamic simulations used to model these experiments require a choice of model for the transport coefficients, which are the constants of proportionality relating driving terms, such as temperature gradients and currents, to the associated heat and magnetic field transport. The coefficients have been the subject of repeated recalculation using various methods throughout the years. Using a semi-analytic MagLIF model, we compare models for the transport coefficients. The choice of model modifies magnetic-flux losses caused by the Nernst thermoelectric effect and thermal conduction losses. We present simulated results from parameter scans conducted in order to compare the effects of the different models on parameters of interest in MagLIF. In some regions of parameter space, discrepancies of up to 38% are found in integrated quantities like the fusion yield. These results may serve as a guide for experimental validation of the various models, particularly as laser preheat energies and initial axial field strengths are increased on MagLIF experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Non-Destructive Plutonium Assay in Pyroprocessing Bulk Materials with a 3D Boron-Coated-Straw Detector Array

Assessment of plutonium content through all the processing steps is needed and is a challenging task. While several destructive assay methods have been developed for nuclear material accountability, a nondestructive assay (NDA) system for the assessment of plutonium in bulk materials is still needed. This system should withstand pyroprocessing harsh environments and have consistent sensitivity and accuracy despite different fuel form factors. We aim to enable the accurate assessment of the plutonium content of nuclear material during pyroprocessing to improve the separation process and enhance its proliferation resistance. We plan to achieve this goal by developing and demonstrating a new 3D boron-coated-straw neutron detector array (3D-BCSDA) with high efficiency and spatial resolution.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Bent Crystal Channeling for Optimized Beam Shadowing and Proton Extraction at Mu2e

The Mu2e experiment is designed to investigate the CLFV through the observation of a neutrinoless muon-to-electron conversion in the field of an Al nucleus. The observation of such a process would be clear evidence of physics beyond the standard model. Due to the rarity of this process, a cutting-edge, intense muon beam is required to achieve an improvement of the current single-event sensitivity by 4 orders of magnitude. To achieve this goal, a primary proton beam with 8 GeV is extracted from the Fermilab Delivery Ring using the slow resonant extraction technique. Mu2e requires ~3.6x10$^{20}$ protons-on-target to meet its goal; hence, it is crucial to minimize the extraction losses. An important source of such losses are the particles impacting on the electrostatic septum blade. A very promising solution to the problem lies in the beam shadowing scheme tested at CERN SPS. In this approach, a bent crystal is strategically placed upstream of the septum, deflecting particles from the blade at a precise angle via the phenomenon of channeling. As a result, a zone with reduced particle flux is created downstream of the crystal, safeguarding the septum anode by minimizing interactions with the beam. This work explores the optimization of beam shadowing design and the process in the manufacturing and characterization of the bent crystal sample. It emphasizes the promising role of channeling in bent crystals, and it underscores the significant potential of channeling in bent crystals to assist the Mu2e experiment.

Fedeli, Pierluigi [Ferrara U.; INFN, Ferrara] (ORC↗

High-Performance Simulation of Dynamic Hydrologic Exchange and Implications for Surrogate Flow and Reactive Transport Modeling in a Large River Corridor

Hydrologic exchange flows (HEFs) have environmental significance in riverine ecosystems. Key river channel factors that influence the spatial and temporal variations of HEFs include river stage, riverbed morphology, and riverbed hydraulic conductivity. However, their impacts on HEFs were often evaluated independently or on small scales. In this study, we numerically evaluated the combined interactions of these factors on HEFs using a high-performance simulator, PFLOTRAN, for subsurface flow and transport. The model covers 51 square kilometers of a selected river corridor with large sinuosity along the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River in Washington, US. Three years of spatially distributed hourly river stages were applied to the riverbed. Compared to the simulation when riverbed heterogeneity is not ignored, the simulation using homogeneous riverbed conductivity underestimated HEFs, especially upwelling from lateral features, and overestimated the mean residence times derived from particle tracking. To derive a surrogate model for the river corridor, we amended the widely used transient storage model (TSM) for riverine solute study at reach scale with reactions. By treating the whole river corridor as a batch reactor, the temporal changes in the exchange rate coefficient for the TSM were derived from the dynamic residence time estimated from the hourly PFLOTRAN results. The TSM results were evaluated against the effective concentrations in the hyporheic zone calculated from the PFLOTRAN simulations. Our results show that there is potential to parameterize surrogate models such as TSM amended with biogeochemical reactions while incorporating small-scale process understandings and the signature of time-varying streamflow to advance the mechanistic understanding of river corridor processes at reach to watershed scales. However, the assumption of a well-mixed storage zone for TSM should be revisited when redox-sensitive reactions in the storage zones play important roles in river corridor functioning.

Fang, Yilin↗

Observation of site-selective chemical bond changes via ultrafast chemical shifts

The concomitant motion of electrons and nuclei on the femtosecond time scale marks the fate of chemical and biological processes. Here we demonstrate the ability to initiate and track the ultrafast electron rearrangement and chemical bond breaking site-specifically in real time for the carbon monoxide diatomic molecule. We employ a local resonant x-ray pump at the oxygen atom and probe the chemical shifts of the carbon core-electron binding energy. We observe charge redistribution accompanying core-excitation followed by Auger decay, eventually leading to dissociation and hole trapping at one site of the molecule. The presented technique is general in nature with sensitivity to chemical environment changes including transient electronic excited state dynamics. This work provides a route to investigate energy and charge transport processes in more complex systems by tracking selective chemical bond changes on their natural timescale.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

ISMIP6-based Antarctic projections to 2100: simulations with the BISICLES ice sheet model

The contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the most uncertain components of sea level rise to 2100. Ice sheet models are the primary tool for projecting future sea level contribution from continental ice sheets. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 6 (ISMIP6) provided projections of the ice sheet contribution to sea level over the 21st century, quantifying uncertainty due to ice sheet model, climate model, emission scenario, and uncertain parameters. We present simulations following the ISMIP6 framework with the BISICLES ice sheet model and new experiments extending the ISMIP6 protocol to more comprehensively sample uncertainties in future climate, ice shelf sensitivity to ocean melting, and their interactions. These results contributed to the land ice projections of Edwards et al. (2021), which formed the basis of sea level projections for the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR6). Our experiments show the important interplay between surface mass balance processes and ocean-driven melt in determining Antarctic sea level contribution. Under higher-warming scenarios, high accumulation offsets more ocean-driven mass loss when sensitivity to ocean-driven melt is low. Conversely, we show that when sensitivity to ocean warming is high, ocean melting drives increased mass loss despite high accumulation. Overall, we simulate a sea level contribution range across our experiments from 2 to 178 mm. Finally, we show that collapse of ice shelves due to surface warming increases sea level contribution by 25 mm relative to the no-collapse experiments, for both moderate and high sensitivity of ice shelf melting to ocean forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Benchmarking FFTF LOFWOS Test# 13 using SAM code: Baseline model development and uncertainty quantification

The development and deployment of advanced reactors, such as the sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR), relies on sophisticated modeling tools to ensure the safety of the design under various transients. The predictive capability of these advanced modeling tools requires validation to garner trust in supporting the licensing of the advanced reactors. For this reason, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) initiated a coordinated research project (CRP) in 2018 for the analysis of the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF) Loss of Flow Without Scram (LOFWOS) Test #13.In this study, we present and discuss the benchmarking efforts of the modern system code SAM on the FFTF LOFWOS Test #13. Further, the SAM baseline model was developed according to the benchmark specification, which included a detailed core model with reactivity feedback. Generally, good agreement was observed between the baseline results and benchmark measurements; however, discrepancies persisted, particularly in predicted fuel assembly coolant outlet temperatures. Utilizing the baseline model, uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) were conducted with the assistance of various statistical learning and machine learning methods, including kernel density estimation, Gaussian processes, and Sobol indices. Following the baseline model prediction and UQ and SA results, we discuss the reasons for the simulation discrepancies and propose further improvements to the model. This benchmarking effort adheres to the best-estimate plus uncertainty approach and can serve as a valuable example for supporting risk-informed licensing of advanced reactors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Kaon–proton strong interaction at low relative momentum via femtoscopy in Pb–Pb collisions at the LHC

In quantum scattering processes between two particles, aspects characterizing the strong and Coulomb forces can be observed in kinematic distributions of the particle pairs. The sensitivity to the interaction potential reaches a maximum at low relative momentum and vanishing distance between the two particles. Ultrarelativistic heavy-ion collisions at the LHC provide an abundant source of many hadron species and can be employed as a measurement method of scattering parameters that is complementary to scattering experiments. This study confirms that momentum correlations of particles produced in Pb–Pb collisions at the LHC provide an accurate measurement of kaon–proton scattering parameters at low relative momentum, allowing precise access to the K – p $\rightarrow$ K – p process. This work also validates the femtoscopic measurement in ultrarelativistic heavy-ion collisions as an alternative to scattering experiments and a complementary tool to the study of exotic atoms with comparable precision. In this work, the first femtoscopic measurement of momentum correlations of K – p (K + $\bar{p}$) and K + p (K – $\bar{p}$) pairs in Pb–Pb collisions at centre-of-mass energy per nucleon pair of $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ =5.02 TeV registered by the ALICE experiment is reported. The components of the K – p complex scattering length are extracted and found to be $\mathfrak{R}$f 0 = -0.91±0.03(stat)$^{+0.17}_{-0.03}$(syst) and $\mathfrak{T}$f 0 =0.92±0.05(stat)$^{+0.12}_{-0.33}$(syst). The results are compared with chiral effective field theory predictions as well as with existing data from dedicated scattering and exotic kaonic atom experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

$|\Delta \mathcal{B}| =2$: A State of the Field, and Looking Forward--A brief status report of theoretical and experimental physics opportunities

The origin of the matter-antimatter asymmetry apparently obligates the laws of physics to include some mechanism of baryon number ($\mathcal{B}$) violation. Searches for interactions violating $\mathcal{B}$ and baryon-minus-lepton number $\mathcal{(B-L)}$ represent a rich and underutilized opportunity. These are complementary to the existing, broad program of searches for $\mathcal{L}$-violating modes such as neutrinoless double $\beta$-decay which could provide deeper understandings of the plausibility of leptogenesis, or $\mathcal{B}$-violating, $\mathcal{(B-L)}$-conserving processes such as proton decay. In particular, a low-scale, post-sphaleron violation mechanism of $\mathcal{(B-L)}$ could provide a \textit{testable} form of baryogenesis. Though theoretically compelling, searches for such $\mathcal{(B-L)}$-violating processes like $\Delta\mathcal{B}=2$ dinucleon decay and $n\rightarrow\bar{n}$ remain relatively underexplored experimentally compared to other rare processes. By taking advantage of upcoming facilities such as the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment and the European Spallation Source, this gap can be addressed with new intranuclear and free searches for neutron transformations with very high sensitivity, perhaps greater than three orders of magnitude higher than previous experimental searches. This proceedings reports on recent theoretical and experimental advances and sensitivities of next-generation searches for neutron transformations were detailed as part of the Amherst Center for Fundamental Interactions Workshop, "Theoretical Innovations for Future Experiments Regarding Baryon Number Violation," directly coordinated with the Rare Processes and Precision Measurements Frontier.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DPSIR-ESA Vulnerability Assessment (DEVA) Framework: Synthesis, Foundational Overview, and Expert Case Studies

Land resources are central to understanding the relationship between humans and their environment. We broadly define a land resource to include all the ecological resources of climate, water, soil, landforms, flora, and fauna, and all the socioeconomic systems that interact with agriculture, forestry, and other land uses within some system boundary. Understanding the vulnerability of land resources to changes in land management or climate forcing is critical to developing sustainable land management strategies. Vulnerability assessments are complex given the multiple uses of the assessments, the multi-disciplinary nature of the problem, limited understanding, the dynamic structure of vulnerability, scale issues, and problems with identifying effective vulnerability indicators. Here, we propose a novel conceptual framework for vulnerability assessments of land resources that combines the driver– pressure–state–impact–response (DPSIR) framework adopted by the European Environment Agency to describe interactions between society and the environment, and the exposure-sensitivity-adaptive capacity (ESA) framework used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to assess impacts of climate change. The DPSIR-ESA Vulnerability Assessment (DEVA) framework operationalizes the process of assessing the vulnerability of a target system to external stressors. The DEVA framework includes the following elements: 1) Definition of the target system (Land resource), 2) Description of internal characteristics of the target system (State), 3) Description of target system vulnerability indicators (Adaptive capacity, Sensitivity), 4) Description of stressor characteristics (Drivers, Pressures), 5) Description of stressor vulnerability indicators (Exposure), 6) Description of target system response to stressors (Impacts), and 7) Description of modifications to target systems or stressors (Responses). In stating that they have “applied the DEVA framework”, analysts acknowledge that they have (a) considered the full breadth of each DEVA element, (b) have made conscious decisions to limit the scope and complexity of certain elements, and (c) can communicate both the rationale for these decisions and the impact of these decisions on the vulnerability assessment results and recommendations. The DEVA framework was refined during invited presentations and follow-up discussions from a series of Special Sessions with leading experts at two successive ASABE Annual International Meetings. Six case studies drawn from the sessions elaborate upon the DEVA framework and provide concrete examples of the key concepts. The DEVA approach gives engineers, planners, and analysts a new, flexible framework to apply a broad array of useful tools toward assessment of land resource system vulnerability.

Anandhi, Aauvadi↗

Final DOE-ASR Report for the Project “Using LASSO to bridge the gap between model and observations and to learn about atmospheric convection”

Atmospheric convection spans a wide range of spatial and temporal scales and involves complex interactions with the surrounding dynamic and thermodynamic environment, particularly over tropical continental regions. These processes remain a major source of uncertainty in weather and climate models, including persistent biases in the diurnal cycle of convective precipitation that directly affect estimates of climate sensitivity. Addressing these challenges requires the combined use of high-resolution observations and cloud-resolving modeling frameworks. In this context, the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program’s Large-Eddy Simulation ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) activity provides a powerful platform that pairs comprehensive observations with numerical simulations to enable process-level understanding of atmospheric convection. Within this context, this Research and Development Partnership Pilot (RDPP) project was designed to initiate and expand DOE ARM/ASR research capacity at minority-serving institutions, while advancing scientific understanding of convective processes over the Amazon rainforest. Consistent with the RDPP mission, the project emphasized partnership development, training, and workforce capacity building alongside exploratory research activities. On the scientific side, the project produced two peer-reviewed journal articles, and one manuscript currently under review (see list in section 3.1). Together, these studies combine long-term ARM observations and cloud-resolving and convection-permitting modeling to investigate the environmental controls on the shallow-to-deep convective transition during the Amazon wet season. The results demonstrate the central role of early-day moisture preconditioning and large-scale dynamical forcing in regulating isolated deep convection, provide mechanistic insight into convective evolution, and establish physically informed modeling frameworks for future sensitivity experiments. These scientific outcomes are described in sections 2.1 to 2.3 and were disseminated in 8 conference presentations (see section 3.2) and 5 invited talks (see section 3.3), reflecting broad engagement with our community. Equally important, the project achieved its RDPP capacity-building objectives (see section 2.4). A sustained research partnership was established among the University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC), Morgan State University (MSU), and Howard University (HU), and extended to include collaboration with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). The project organized multiple multi-day training events focused on ARM data, LASSO simulations, and quantitative analysis methods, directly engaging students, postdoctoral researchers, and faculty across institutions. These activities broadened participation in ASR research and led to independent adoption of LASSO workflows by students beyond the immediate project team. Finally, the project successfully positioned the participating institutions to pursue future DOE research. Preliminary scientific results, coupled with strengthened partnerships and technical capacity, enabled the submission of follow-on proposals to DOE ASR funding opportunities. In this way, the project fulfilled the RDPP goal of seeding durable research capacity and laying the foundation for larger-scale, sustained engagement with DOE ARM and ASR programs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing dynamic vegetation model parameter uncertainty across Alaskan arctic tundra plant communities

Abstract As the Arctic region moves into uncharted territory under a warming climate, it is important to refine the terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) that help us understand and predict change. One fundamental uncertainty in TBMs relates to model parameters, configuration variables internal to the model whose value can be estimated from data. We incorporate a version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) developed for arctic ecosystems into the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) framework. PEcAn treats model parameters as probability distributions, estimates parameters based on a synthesis of available field data, and then quantifies both model sensitivity and uncertainty to a given parameter or suite of parameters. We examined how variation in 21 parameters in the equation for gross primary production influenced model sensitivity and uncertainty in terms of two carbon fluxes (net primary productivity and heterotrophic respiration) and two carbon (C) pools (vegetation C and soil C). We set up different parameterizations of TEM across a range of tundra types (tussock tundra, heath tundra, wet sedge tundra, and shrub tundra) in northern Alaska, along a latitudinal transect extending from the coastal plain near Utqiaġvik to the southern foothills of the Brooks Range, to the Seward Peninsula. TEM was most sensitive to parameters related to the temperature regulation of photosynthesis. Model uncertainty was mostly due to parameters related to leaf area, temperature regulation of photosynthesis, and the stomatal responses to ambient light conditions. Our analysis also showed that sensitivity and uncertainty to a given parameter varied spatially. At some sites, model sensitivity and uncertainty tended to be connected to a wider range of parameters, underlining the importance of assessing tundra community processes across environmental gradients or geographic locations. Generally, across sites, the flux of net primary productivity (NPP) and pool of vegetation C had about equal uncertainty, while heterotrophic respiration had higher uncertainty than the pool of soil C. Our study illustrates the complexity inherent in evaluating parameter uncertainty across highly heterogeneous arctic tundra plant communities. It also provides a framework for iteratively testing how newly collected field data related to key parameters may result in more effective forecasting of Arctic change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Search for dark photons from Higgs boson decays via $ZH$ production with a photon plus missing transverse momentum signature from $pp$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper describes a search for dark photons ($γ_d$) in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). The dark photons are searched for in the decay of Higgs bosons ($H$ → $γγ_d$) produced through the $ZH$ production mode. The transverse mass of the system, made of the photon and the missing transverse momentum from the non-interacting $γ_d$, presents a distinctive signature as it peaks near the Higgs boson mass. The results presented use the total Run-2 integrated luminosity of 139 fb –1 recorded by the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The dominant reducible background processes are estimated using data-driven techniques. A Boosted Decision Tree technique is adopted to enhance the sensitivity of the search. As no excess is observed with respect to the Standard Model prediction, an observed (expected) upper limit on the branching ratio BR($H$ → $γγ_d$) of 2.28% (${2.82}_{–0.84}^{+1.33}$%) is set at 95% CL for massless $γ_d$. For massive dark photons up to 40 GeV, the observed (expected) upper limits on BR($H$ → $γγ_d$) at 95% confidence level is found within the [2.19,2.52]% ([2.71,3.11]%) range.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗