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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 937 records · Page 52
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Cost of Oil and Biomass Supply Shocks under Different Biofuel Supply Chain Configurations

This analysis estimates the cost of selected oil and biomass supply shocks for producers and consumers in the light-duty vehicle fuel market under various supply chain configurations using a mathematical programing model, BioTrans. The supply chain configurations differ by whether they include selected flexibility levers: multi-feedstock biorefineries; advanced biomass logistics; and the ability to adjust ethanol content of low-ethanol fuel blends, from E10 to E15 or E05. The simulated scenarios explore market responses to supply shocks including substitution between gasoline and ethanol, substitution between different sources of ethanol supply, biorefinery capacity additions or idling, and price adjustments. Welfare effects for the various market participants represented in BioTrans are summarized into a net shock cost measure. As oil accounts for a larger fraction of fuel by volume, its supply shocks are costlier than biomass supply shocks. Corn availability and the high cost of adding biorefinery capacity limit increases in ethanol use during gasoline price spikes. During shocks that imply sudden decreases in the price of gasoline, the renewable fuel standard (RFS) biofuel blending mandate limits the extent to which flexibility can be exercised to reduce ethanol use. The selected flexibility levers are most useful in response to cellulosic biomass supply shocks.

Uria Martinez, Rocio↗
DOE OSTI2020

The role of shale gas in shaping the U.S. long-run CO 2 emissions

The shale gas boom in the U.S. has lowered the U.S. CO 2 emissions in recent years mainly through substitution of gas for coal in power generation. Will the shale gas boom reduce the emissions in the long-run as well? To study this, we consider a counterfactual without the shale gas boom based on a general equilibrium modeling for the 2011 U.S. economy. To enhance the power sector modeling, the supply responses of coal-fired and gas-fired generations are calibrated to existing research. We find that if gas prices remain at 2007 levels in 2011, only a model setting that allows very little reduction in electricity demand, reflecting a short-run demand response, generates an increase in economy-wide emissions. For all other cases, the higher gas price under the counterfactual will have a dampening effect on economic activities and consequently lowers economy-wide emissions, even though the power sector emissions may increase due to the gas-to-coal switch. In other words, without any policy intervention, although the shale gas boom could reduce emissions in the short run, it may lead to higher emissions in the long run if the low gas prices persist. Our finding suggests that extrapolating the current decline in emissions due to the shale gas boom to the distant future could be misleading. Instead, if curbing emissions is the goal, rather than depending upon the cheap gas, policies and measures for cutting emissions remain imperative.

Chen, Y. -H. Henry↗
DOE OSTI2022

Techno-economic assessment for the production of algal fuels and value-added products: opportunities for high-protein microalgae conversion

Abstract Background Microalgae possess numerous advantages for use as a feedstock in producing renewable fuels and products, with techno-economic analysis (TEA) frequently used to highlight the economic potential and technical challenges of utilizing this biomass in a biorefinery context. However, many historical TEA studies have focused on the conversion of biomass with elevated levels of carbohydrates and lipids and lower levels of protein, incurring substantial burdens on the ability to achieve high cultivation productivity rates relative to nutrient-replete, high-protein biomass. Given a strong dependence of algal biomass production costs on cultivation productivity, further TEA assessment is needed to understand the economic potential for utilizing potentially lower-cost but lower-quality, high-protein microalgae for biorefinery conversion. Results In this work, we conduct rigorous TEA modeling to assess the economic viability of two conceptual technology pathways for processing proteinaceous algae into a suite of fuels and products. One approach, termed mild oxidative treatment and upgrading (MOTU), makes use of a series of thermo-catalytic operations to upgrade solubilized proteins and carbohydrates to hydrocarbon fuels, while another alternative focuses on the biological conversion of those substrates to oxygenated fuels in the form of mixed alcohols (MA). Both pathways rely on the production of polyurethanes from unsaturated fatty acids and valorization of unconverted solids for use as a material for synthesizing bioplastics. The assessment found similar, albeit slightly higher fuel yields and lower costs for the MA pathway, translating to a residual solids selling price of $899/ton for MA versus $1033/ton for MOTU as would be required to support a $2.50/gallon gasoline equivalent (GGE) fuel selling price. A variation of the MA pathway including subsequent upgrading of the mixed alcohols to hydrocarbon fuels (MAU) reflected a required solids selling price of $975/ton. Conclusion The slight advantages observed for the MA pathway are partially attributed to a boundary that stops at oxygenated fuels versus fungible drop-in hydrocarbon fuels through a more complex MOTU configuration, with more comparable results obtained for the MAU scenario. In either case, it was shown that an integrated algal biorefinery can be economical through optimal strategies to utilize and valorize all fractions of the biomass.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Social Learning and Solar Photovoltaic Adoption

Growing literature points to the effectiveness of leveraging social interactions and nudges to spur adoption of prosocial behaviors. This study investigates a large-scale behavioral intervention designed to actively leverage social learning and peer interactions to encourage adoption of residential solar photovoltaic systems. Municipalities choose a solar installer offering group pricing and undertake an informational campaign driven by volunteer ambassadors. We find a causal treatment effect of 37 installations per municipality from the campaigns and no evidence of harvesting or persistence. The intervention also lowers installation prices. Randomized controlled trials based on the intervention show that selection into the program is important, whereas group pricing is not. Our results suggest that the program provided economies of scale and lowered consumer acquisition costs, leading to low-cost emission reductions. This paper was accepted by Matthew Shum, marketing.

Business & Economics↗
DOE OSTI2014

Optimizing and Diversifying Electric Vehicle Driving Range for U.S. Drivers

Properly determining the driving range is critical for accurately predicting the sales and social benefits of battery electric vehicles (BEVs). This study proposes a framework for optimizing the driving range by minimizing the sum of battery price, electricity cost, and range limitation cost referred to as the "range-related cost" as a measurement of range anxiety. The objective function is linked to policy-relevant parameters, including battery cost and price markup, battery utilization, charging infrastructure availability, vehicle efficiency, electricity and gasoline prices, household vehicle ownership, daily driving patterns, discount rate, and perceived vehicle lifetime. Qualitative discussion of the framework and its empirical application to a sample (N=36664) representing new car drivers in the United States is included. The quantitative results strongly suggest that ranges of less than 100 miles are likely to be more popular in the BEV market for a long period of time. The average optimal range among U.S. drivers is found to be largely inelastic. Still, battery cost reduction significantly drives BEV demand toward longer ranges, whereas improvement in the charging infrastructure is found to significantly drive BEV demand toward shorter ranges. In conclusion, the bias of a single-range assumption and the effects of range optimization and diversification in reducing such biases are both found to be significant.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data for Spatially Varying Costs of GHG Abatement with Alternative Cellulosic Feedstocks for Sustainable Aviation Fuels

Cellulosic biomass-based sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) can be produced from various feedstocks. The breakeven price and carbon intensity of these feedstock-to-SAF pathways are likely to differ across feedstocks and across spatial locations due to differences in feedstock attributes, productivity, opportunity costs of land for feedstock production, soil carbon effects, and feedstock composition. We integrate feedstock to fuel supply chain economics and life-cycle carbon accounting using the same system boundary to quantify and compare the spatially varying greenhouse gas (GHG) intensities and costs of GHG abatement with SAFs derived from four feedstocks (switchgrass, miscanthus, energy sorghum, and corn stover) at 4 km resolution across the U.S. rainfed region. We show that the optimal feedstock for each location differs depending on whether the incentive is to lower breakeven price, carbon intensity, or cost of carbon abatement with biomass or to have high biomass production per unit land. The cost of abating GHG emissions with SAF ranges from $181 Mg−1 CO2e to more than $444 Mg−1 CO2e and is lowest with miscanthus in the Midwest, switchgrass in the south, and energy sorghum in a relatively small region in the Great Plains. While corn stover-based SAF has the lowest breakeven price per gallon, it has the highest cost of abatement due to its relatively high GHG intensity. Our findings imply that different types of policies, such as volumetric targets, tax credits, and low carbon fuel standards, will differ in the mix of feedstocks they incentivize and locations where they are produced in the U.S. rainfed region. Note: Column V in TableS7_DayCentSimulatedYield.csv should be labelled Corn Stover CoSo-NT-50% Max.

Geospatial↗
DOE OSTI2024

Field Performance of Commercial Building Load Flexibility Using Model Predictive Control

Model Predictive Control (MPC) applied to buildings is starting to see some commercial adoption by companies. However, it is hard to estimate if relative energy cost savings are enough to justify the cost of MPC implementation with few reported demonstrations. In small commercial and residential buildings, a one size-fits-all solution can help reduce implementation costs, while in very large buildings or districts the potential energy cost savings magnitude can cover more tailored solutions. This estimation becomes harder for medium to large commercial buildings, where a one-size-fits-all solution cannot be adopted and potential energy cost savings might not be sufficient to cover a tailored solution. Therefore, value propositions in addition to energy efficiency alone can make MPC technology more attractive through additional energy cost savings. One such value proposition is load shifting in response to dynamic electricity prices. On this aspect, MPC is a key technology to unlock building thermal mass for energy flexibility in response to electric grid conditions. This study shows the experimental results of MPC control of an office building in Berkeley, where different dynamic electricity price profiles were used in the MPC objective function to shift the building load and to calculate hypothetical electricity costs. Results show potential 50% cost savings with respect to the existing controller with the dynamic price scenario.

Zanetti, Ettore↗
DOE OSTI2019

A Sustainable Approach to Decision-Making in CCUS Systems

This study proposes a methodology for operational decision-making leading to the sustainability CO 2 -EOR systems. The methodology is a simple, yet comprehensive, integration of environmental and economic carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) performance. Understanding the interplay between the environmental and economic conditions allows the EOR operator to manage the CO 2 -EOR flood so it remains within the limits of carbon balance neutrality and favorable economics under given prices and costs. The environmental performance and the main operational inputs (fluid production, CO 2 injection, and purchase requirements) were taken from a dynamic carbon Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) study previously performed for a CO 2 -EOR site in Cranfield, Mississippi. The LCA study accounts for greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions within a gate-to-grave CCUS system boundary, considering four different CO 2 injection strategies and four gas separation processes. The economic performance assessment was made through a marginalist analysis (Marginalist Production Theory), which determines important technical and economic relations through basic differential calculus derived from production, cost, and income functions. This method allows to define the operational economic optimum (optimum profit). The assessment considers four CO 2 price scenarios and uses World Bank estimated oil prices. In a first step of the proposed methodology, environmental limits of the operation are estimated. These limits are then compared with operative maximum productivity as well as with the economic optimum. According to the methodology, the EOR operation is sustainable as long as the environmental optimum is greater, or lasts longer, than the economic optimum along the project’s life. Results show that for this operation and assumed parameters, CO 2 -EOR could be classified as a sustainable activity depending on the operator’s strategic decision-making. In the case study, all injection strategies reach the environmental optimum after maximum productivity is reached. As a result, only two strategies (continuous gas injection and water alternating gas) find their economic optimum within the environmental limits, fulfilling the defined necessary and sufficient condition for CCUS sustainability.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2012

Long Island Smart Metering Pilot Project

The Long Island Power Authority (LIPA) Smart Meter Pilots provided invaluable information and experience for future deployments of Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI), including the deployment planned as part of LIPA's Smart Grid Demonstration Project (DE-OE0000220). LIPA will incorporate lessons learned from this pilot in future deployments, including lessons relating to equipment performance specifications and testing, as well as equipment deployment and tracking issues. LIPA ultimately deployed three AMI technologies instead of the two that were originally contemplated. This enabled LIPA to evaluate multiple systems in field conditions with a relatively small number of meter installations. LIPA experienced a number of equipment and software issues that it did not anticipate, including issues relating to equipment integration, ability to upgrade firmware and software over the air (as opposed to physically interacting with every meter), and logistical challenges associated with tracking inventory and upgrade status of deployed meters. In addition to evaluating the technology, LIPA also piloted new Time-of-Use (TOU) rates to assess customer acceptance of time-differentiated pricing and to evaluate whether customers would respond by adjusting their activities from peak to non-peak periods. LIPA developed a marketing program to educate customers who received AMI in the pilot areas and to seek voluntary participation in TOU pricing. LIPA also guaranteed participating customers that, for their initial year on the rates, their electricity costs under the TOU rate would not exceed the amount they would have paid under the flat rates they would otherwise enjoy. 62 residential customers chose to participate in the TOU rates, and every one of them saved money during the first year. 61 of them also elected to stay on the TOU rate without the cost guarantee at the end of that year. The customer who chose not to continue on the rate was also the one who achieved the greatest savings. However, after the first year, the customer in question installed equipment that would have made TOU rates a more costly option than the residential flat rate. During the second year, all but one customer saved money. That customer increased usage during peak hours, and as a result saw an increase in annual costs (as compared to the flat rate) of $\$$24.17. The results were less clear for commercial customers, which LIPA attributes to rate design issues that it will take into account for future deployments. LIPA views this pilot as a complete success. Not only is LIPA better prepared for a larger deployment of AMI, but it is confident that residential customers will accept AMI and TOU rates and shift their energy consumption from peak to non-peak periods in response to pricing. On a larger scale, this will benefit LIPA and all of its customers by potentially lowering peak demand when energy costs are highest.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2012

Assessing the economic value and optimal structure of large-scale electricity storage

Large-scale electricity storage can enable arbitrage between periods when electricity is abundant, and cheap, and periods when it is scarce. In principle, this could enable greater use of baseload generation, and encourage investments in intermittent capacity such as wind and solar. If storage is to penetrate the system, the marginal value of storage capacity must be high enough to enable investments in storage. To have a significant impact on investments in intermittent technologies, it must be large enough to affect the prices on the system. This research develops a theoretical framework to evaluate the marginal values of the components of a storage system, and to characterize the impact of storage on the price patterns in the system. The theoretical approach is applied to an example system to illustrate the changes in marginal values as storage penetrates the system, and the impact on system prices.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2012

Demonstration Assessment of LED Roadway Lighting - NE Cully Boulevard, Portland, OR

A new roadway lighting demonstration project was initiated in late 2010, which was planned in conjunction with other upgrades to NE Cully Boulevard, a residential collector road in the northeast area of Portland, OR. With the NE Cully Boulevard project, the Portland Bureau of Transportation hoped to demonstrate different light source technologies and different luminaires side-by-side. This report documents the initial performance of six different newly installed luminaires, including three LED products, one induction product, one ceramic metal halide product, and one high-pressure sodium (HPS) product that represented the baseline solution. It includes reported, calculated, and measured performance; evaluates the economic feasibility of each of the alternative luminaires; and documents user feedback collected from a group of local Illuminating Engineering Society (IES) members that toured the site. This report does not contain any long-term performance evaluations or laboratory measurements of luminaire performance. Although not all of the installed products performed equally, the alternative luminaires generally offered higher efficacy, more appropriate luminous intensity distributions, and favorable color quality when compared to the baseline HPS luminaire. However, some products did not provide sufficient illumination to all areas—vehicular drive lanes, bicycle lanes, and sidewalks—or would likely fail to meet design criteria over the life of the installation due to expected depreciation in lumen output. While the overall performance of the alternative luminaires was generally better than the baseline HPS luminaire, cost remains a significant barrier to widespread adoption. Based on the cost of the small quantity of luminaires purchased for this demonstration, the shortest calculated payback period for one of the alternative luminaire types was 17.3 years. The luminaire prices were notably higher than typical prices for currently available luminaires purchased in larger quantities. At prices that are more typical, the payback would be less than 10 years. In addition to the demonstration luminaires, a networked control system was installed for additional evaluation and demonstration purposes. The capability of control system to measure luminaire input power was explored in this study. A more exhaustive demonstration and evaluation of the control system will be the subject of future GATEWAY report(s).

Comparison to High Pressure Sodium Lighting↗
DOE OSTI2013

Sensitivity of Rooftop PV Projections in the SunShot Vision Study to Market Assumptions

The SunShot Vision Study explored the potential growth of solar markets if solar prices decreased by about 75% from 2010 to 2020. The SolarDS model was used to simulate rooftop PV demand for this study, based on several PV market assumptions--future electricity rates, customer access to financing, and others--in addition to the SunShot PV price projections. This paper finds that modeled PV demand is highly sensitive to several non-price market assumptions, particularly PV financing parameters.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2013

Value of Energy Storage for Grid Applications

This analysis evaluates several operational benefits of electricity storage, including load-leveling, spinning contingency reserves, and regulation reserves. Storage devices were simulated in a utility system in the western United States, and the operational costs of generation was compared to the same system without the added storage. This operational value of storage was estimated for devices of various sizes, providing different services, and with several sensitivities to fuel price and other factors. Overall, the results followed previous analyses that demonstrate relatively low value for load-leveling but greater value for provision of reserve services. The value was estimated by taking the difference in operational costs between cases with and without energy storage and represents the operational cost savings from deploying storage by a traditional vertically integrated utility. The analysis also estimated the potential revenues derived from a merchant storage plant in a restructured market, based on marginal system prices. Due to suppression of on-/off-peak price differentials and incomplete capture of system benefits (such as the cost of power plant starts), the revenue obtained by storage in a market setting appears to be substantially less than the net benefit provided to the system. This demonstrates some of the additional challenges for storage deployed in restructured energy markets.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2013

Morris County Improvement Authority, Morris County, New Jersey Renewable Energy Initiative

The Morris County Improvement Authority (Authority), a public body corporate and politic of the State of New Jersey and created and controlled by the County, at the direction of the County and through the Program guaranteed by the County, financed 3.2 MW of solar projects (Solar Projects) at fifteen (15) sites for seven (7) local government units (Local Units) in and including the County. The Program uses a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) structure, where the Solar Developer constructs, operates and maintains all of the Solar Projects, for the benefit of the Local Units and the Authority, for the maximum State law allowable PPA period of fifteen (15) years. Although all fifteen (15) sites were funded by the Authority, only the Mennen Arena site was considered for the purposes of the required local match funding for this grant. Specifically at the Mennen Arena site, the Authority financed 1.6 MW of solar panels. On October 18, 2013, the DOE Grant was drawn down following completion of the necessary application documents and final execution of an agreement memorializing the contemplated transaction by the Local Units, the County, The Authority and the solar developer. The proceeds of the DOE Grant were then applied to reduce the PPA price to all Local Units across the program and increase the savings from approximately 1/3 to almost half off the existing and forecasted utility pricing over the fifteen (15) year term, without adversely affecting all of the other benefits. With the application of the rate buy down, the price of electricity purchased under the PPA dropped from 10.9 to 7.7 cents/kWh. This made acquisition of renewable energy much more affordable for the Local Units, and it enhanced the success of the program, which will encourage other counties and local units to develop similar programs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2012

Design Concepts for Co-Production of Power, Fuels & Chemicals Via Coal/Biomass Mixtures

The overall goal of the program is to develop design concepts, incorporating advanced technologies in areas such as oxygen production, feed systems, gas cleanup, component separations and gas turbines, for integrated and economically viable coal and biomass fed gasification facilities equipped with carbon capture and storage for the following scenarios: (i) coproduction of power along with hydrogen, (ii) coproduction of power along with fuels, (iii) coproduction of power along with petrochemicals, and (iv) coproduction of power along with agricultural chemicals. To achieve this goal, specifically the following objectives are met in this proposed project: (i) identify advanced technology options and innovative preliminary design concepts that synergistically integrate plant subsections, (ii) develop steady state system simulations to predict plant efficiency and environmental signature, (iii) develop plant cost estimates by capacity factoring major subsystems or by major equipment items where required, and then capital, operating and maintenance cost estimates, and (iv) perform techno- economic analyses for the above described coproduction facilities. Thermal efficiencies for the electricity only cases with 90% carbon capture are 38.26% and 36.76% (HHV basis) with the bituminous and the lignite feedstocks respectively. For the coproduction cases (where 50% of the energy exported is in the form of electricity), the electrical efficiency, as expected, is highest for the hydrogen coproduction cases while lowest for the higher alcohols (ethanol) coproduction cases. The electrical efficiencies for Fischer-Tropsch coproduction cases are slightly higher than those for the methanol coproduction cases but it should be noted that the methanol (as well as the higher alcohol) coproduction cases produce the finished coproduct while the Fischer-Tropsch coproduction cases produce a coproduct that requires further processing in a refinery. The cross comparison of the thermal performance between the various coproduct cases is further complicated by the fact that the carbon footprint is not the same when carbon leaving with the coproduct are accounted for. The economic analysis and demand for a particular coproduct in the market place is a more meaningful comparison of the various coproduction scenarios. The first year cost of electricity calculated for the bituminous coal is $\$$102.9/MWh while that for the lignite is $\$$108.1/MWh. The calculated cost of hydrogen ranged from $\$$1.42/kg to $\$$2.77/kg depending on the feedstock, which is lower than the DOE announced hydrogen cost goal of $\$$3.00/kg in July 14, 2005. Methanol cost ranged from $\$$345/MT to $\$$617/MT, while the market price is around $\$$450/MT. For Fischer-Tropsch liquids, the calculated cost ranged from $\$$65/bbl to $\$$112/bbl, which is comparable to the current market price of crude oil at around $\$$100/bbl. It should be noted, however, that F-T liquids contain no sulfur and nitrogen compounds. The calculated cost of alcohol ranged from $\$$4.37/gal to $\$$5.43/gal, while it ranged from $\$$2.20/gal to $\$$3.70/gal in a DOE funded study conducted by Louisiana State University. The Louisiana State University study consisted of a significantly larger plant than our study and benefited from economies of scale. When the plant size in our study is scaled up to similar size as in the Louisiana State University study, cost of alcohol is then reduced to a range of $\$$3.24/gal to $\$$4.28/gal, which is comparable. Urea cost ranged from $\$$307/MT to $\$$428/MT, while the market price is around $\$$480/MT.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2012

NYSEG Seneca Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES) Demonstration Project

Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES) is a hybrid energy storage and generation concept that has many potential benefits especially in a location with increasing percentages of intermittent wind energy generation. The objectives of the NYSEG Seneca CAES Project included: for Phase 1, development of a Front End Engineering Design for a 130MW to 210 MW utility-owned facility including capital costs; project financials based on the engineering design and forecasts of energy market revenues; design of the salt cavern to be used for air storage; draft environmental permit filings; and draft NYISO interconnection filing; for Phase 2, objectives included plant construction with a target in-service date of mid-2016; and for Phase 3, objectives included commercial demonstration, testing, and two-years of performance reporting. This Final Report is presented now at the end of Phase 1 because NYSEG has concluded that the economics of the project are not favorable for development in the current economic environment in New York State. The proposed site is located in NYSEG’s service territory in the Town of Reading, New York, at the southern end of Seneca Lake, in New York State’s Finger Lakes region. The landowner of the proposed site is Inergy, a company that owns the salt solution mining facility at this property. Inergy would have developed a new air storage cavern facility to be designed for NYSEG specifically for the Seneca CAES project. A large volume, natural gas storage facility owned and operated by Inergy is also located near this site and would have provided a source of high pressure pipeline quality natural gas for use in the CAES plant. The site has an electrical take-away capability of 210 MW via two NYSEG 115 kV circuits located approximately one half mile from the plant site. Cooling tower make-up water would have been supplied from Seneca Lake. NYSEG’s engineering consultant WorleyParsons Group thoroughly evaluated three CAES designs and concluded that any of the designs would perform acceptably. Their general scope of work included development of detailed project construction schedules, capital cost and cash flow estimates for both CAES cycles, and development of detailed operational data, including fuel and compression energy requirements, to support dispatch modeling for the CAES cycles. The Dispatch Modeling Consultant selected for this project was Customized Energy Solutions (CES). Their general scope of work included development of wholesale electric and gas market price forecasts and development of a dispatch model specific to CAES technologies. Parsons Brinkerhoff Energy Storage Services (PBESS) was retained to develop an air storage cavern and well system design for the CAES project. Their general scope of work included development of a cavern design, solution mining plan, and air production well design, cost, and schedule estimates for the project. Detailed Front End Engineering Design (FEED) during Phase 1 of the project determined that CAES plant capital equipment costs were much greater than the $\$$125.6- million originally estimated by EPRI for the project. The initial air storage cavern Design Basis was increased from a single five million cubic foot capacity cavern to three, five million cubic foot caverns with associated air production wells and piping. The result of this change in storage cavern Design Basis increased project capital costs significantly. In addition, the development time required to complete the three cavern system was estimated at approximately six years. This meant that the CAES plant would initially go into service with only one third of the required storage capacity and would not achieve full capability until after approximately five years of commercial operation. The market price forecasting and dispatch modeling completed by CES indicated that the CAES technologies would operate at only 10 to 20% capacity factors and the resulting overall project economics were not favorable for further development. As a result of all of these factors, the Phase 1 FEED developed an installed CAES plant cost estimate of approximately $\$$2,300/KW for the 210MW CAES 1A and 2 cycles. The capital cost for the 136 MW CAES 1 cycle was even higher due to the lower generating capacity of the cycle. Notably, the large equipment could have generated additional capacity (up to 270MW) which would have improved the cost per KW; however, the output was limited by the night time transmission system capability. The research herein, therefore, is particular to the site-specific factors that influenced the design and the current and forecasted generation mix and energy prices in Upstate New York and may not necessarily indicate that CAES plants cannot be economically constructed in other places in New York State or the world.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2013

Southern company energy storage study :

This study evaluates the business case for additional bulk electric energy storage in the Southern Company service territory for the year 2020. The model was used to examine how system operations are likely to change as additional storage is added. The storage resources were allowed to provide energy time shift, regulation reserve, and spinning reserve services. Several storage facilities, including pumped hydroelectric systems, flywheels, and bulk-scale batteries, were considered. These scenarios were tested against a range of sensitivities: three different natural gas price assumptions, a 15% decrease in coal-fired generation capacity, and a high renewable penetration (10% of total generation from wind energy). Only in the elevated natural gas price sensitivities did some of the additional bulk-scale storage projects appear justifiable on the basis of projected production cost savings. Enabling existing peak shaving hydroelectric plants to provide regulation and spinning reserve, however, is likely to provide savings that justify the project cost even at anticipated natural gas price levels. Transmission and distribution applications of storage were not examined in this study. Allowing new storage facilities to serve both bulk grid and transmission/distribution-level needs may provide for increased benefit streams, and thus make a stronger business case for additional storage.

Ellison, James↗
DOE OSTI2013

Integrated Predictive Demand Response Controller for Commercial Buildings (Final Scientific Technical Report)

This project provides algorithms to perform demand response using the thermal mass of a building. Using the thermal mass of the building is an attractive method for performing demand response because there is no need for capital expenditure. The algorithms rely on the thermal capacitance inherent in the building’s construction materials. A near-optimal “day ahead” predictive approach is developed that is meant to keep the building’s electrical demand constant during the high cost periods. This type of approach is appropriate for both time-of-use and critical peak pricing utility rate structures. The approach uses the past days data in order to determine the best temperature setpoints for the building during the high price periods on the next day. A second “model predictive approach” (MPC) uses a thermal model of the building to determine the best temperature for the next sample period. The approach uses constant feedback from the building and is capable of appropriately handling real time pricing. Both approaches are capable of using weather forecasts to improve performance. Algorithm performance was tested on a municipal library in Sacramento, CA and a large office building in Milwaukee, WI. In both cases the algorithms were capable of storing thermal energy in the building mass in such a way that the electrical demand was reduced during periods of high cost.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗