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NASA NTRS2016

Utilizing the ISS Mission as a Testbed to Develop Cognitive Communications Systems

The ISS provides an excellent opportunity for pioneering artificial intelligence software to meet the challenges of real-time communications (comm) link management. This opportunity empowers the ISS Program to forge a testbed for developing cognitive communications systems for the benefit of the ISS mission, manned Low Earth Orbit (LEO) science programs and future planetary exploration programs. In November, 1998, the Flight Operations Directorate (FOD) started the ISS Antenna Manager (IAM) project to develop a single processor supporting multiple comm satellite tracking for two different antenna systems. Further, the processor was developed to be highly adaptable as it supported the ISS mission through all assembly stages. The ISS mission mandated communications specialists with complete knowledge of when the ISS was about to lose or gain comm link service. The current specialty mandated cognizance of large sun-tracking solar arrays and thermal management panels in addition to the highly-dynamic satellite service schedules and rise/set tables. This mission requirement makes the ISS the ideal communications management analogue for future LEO space station and long-duration planetary exploration missions. Future missions, with their precision-pointed, dynamic, laser-based comm links, require complete autonomy for managing high-data rate communications systems. Development of cognitive communications management systems that permit any crew member or payload science specialist, regardless of experience level, to control communications is one of the greater benefits the ISS can offer new space exploration programs. The IAM project met a new mission requirement never previously levied against US space-born communications systems management: process and display the orientation of large solar arrays and thermal control panels based on real-time joint angle telemetry. However, IAM leaves the actual communications availability assessment to human judgment, which introduces unwanted variability because each specialist has a different core of experience with comm link performance. Because the ISS utilizes two different frequency bands, dynamic structure can be occasionally translucent at one frequency while it can completely interdict service at the other frequency. The impact of articulating structure on the comm link can depend on its orientation at the time it impinges on the link. It can become easy for a human specialist to cross-associate experience at one frequency with experience at the other frequency. Additionally, the specialist's experience is incremental, occurring one nine-hour shift at a time. Only the IAM processor experiences the complete 24x7x365 communications link performance for both communications links but, it has no "learning capability." If the IAM processor could be endowed with a cognitive ability to remember past structure-induced comm link outages, based on its knowledge of the ISS position, attitude, communications gear, array joint angles and tracking accuracy, it could convey such experience to the human operator. It could also use its learned communications link behaviors to accurately convey the availability of future communications sessions. Further, the tool could remember how accurately or inaccurately it predicted availability and correct future predictions based on past performance. The IAM tool could learn frequency-specific impacts due to spacecraft structures and pass that information along as "experience." Such development would provide a single artificial intelligence processor that could provide two different experience bases. If it also "knew" the satellite service schedule, it could distinguish structure blockage from schedule or planet blockage and then quickly switch to another satellite. Alternatively, just as a human operator could judge, a cognizant comm system based on the IAM model could "know" that the blockage is not going to last very long and continue tracking a comm satellite, waiting for it to track away from structure. Ultimately, once this capability was fully developed and tested in the Mission Control Center, it could be transferred on-orbit to support development of operations concepts that include more advanced cognitive communications systems. Future applications of this capability are easily foreseen because even more dynamic satellite constellations with more nodes and greater capability are coming. Currently, the ISS fully employs a 300 million bit-per-second (Mbps) return link for harvesting payload science. In the coming eighteen months, it will step up to 600 Mbps. Already there is talk of a 1.2 billion bit-per-second (Gbps) upgrade for the ISS and laser comm links have already been tested from the ISS. Every data rate upgrade mandates more complicated and sensitive communications equipment which implies greater expertise invested in the human operator. Future on-orbit cognizant comm systems will be needed to meet greater performance demands aboard larger, far more complicated spacecraft. In the LEO environment, the old-style one-satellite-per-spacecraft operations concept will give way to a new concept of a single customer spacecraft simultaneously using multiple comm satellites. Much more highly-dynamic manned LEO missions with decades of crew members potentially increase the demand for communications link performance. A cognizant on-board communications system will meet advanced communications demands from future LEO missions and future planetary missions. The ISS has fledgling components of future exploration programs, both LEO and planetary. Further, the Flight Operations Directorate, through the IAM project, has already begun to develop a communications management system that attempts to solve advanced problems ideally represented by dynamic structure impacting scheduled satellite service. With an earnest project to integrate artificial intelligence into the IAM processor, the ISS Program could develop a cognizant communications system that could be adapted and transferred to future on-orbit avionics designs.

Jackson, Dan↗
NASA NTRS2016

Utilizing the ISS Mission as a Testbed to Develop Cognitive Communications Systems

The ISS provides an excellent opportunity for pioneering artificial intelligence software to meet the challenges of real-time communications (comm) link management. This opportunity empowers the ISS Program to forge a testbed for developing cognitive communications systems for the benefit of the ISS mission, manned Low Earth Orbit (LEO) science programs and future planetary exploration programs. In November, 1998, the Flight Operations Directorate (FOD) started the ISS Antenna Manager (IAM) project to develop a single processor supporting multiple comm satellite tracking for two different antenna systems. Further, the processor was developed to be highly adaptable as it supported the ISS mission through all assembly stages. The ISS mission mandated communications specialists with complete knowledge of when the ISS was about to lose or gain comm link service. The current specialty mandated cognizance of large sun-tracking solar arrays and thermal management panels in addition to the highly-dynamic satellite service schedules and rise/set tables. This mission requirement makes the ISS the ideal communications management analogue for future LEO space station and long-duration planetary exploration missions. Future missions, with their precision-pointed, dynamic, laser-based comm links, require complete autonomy for managing high-data rate communications systems. Development of cognitive communications management systems that permit any crew member or payload science specialist, regardless of experience level, to control communications is one of the greater benefits the ISS can offer new space exploration programs. The IAM project met a new mission requirement never previously levied against US space-born communications systems management: process and display the orientation of large solar arrays and thermal control panels based on real-time joint angle telemetry. However, IAM leaves the actual communications availability assessment to human judgement, which introduces unwanted variability because each specialist has a different core of experience with comm link performance. Because the ISS utilizes two different frequency bands, dynamic structure can be occasionally translucent at one frequency while it can completely interdict service at the other frequency. The impact of articulating structure on the comm link can depend on its orientation at the time it impinges on the link. It can become easy for a human specialist to cross-associate experience at one frequency with experience at the other frequency. Additionally, the specialist's experience is incremental, occurring one nine-hour shift at a time. Only the IAM processor experiences the complete 24x7x365 communications link performance for both communications links but, it has no "learning capability." If the IAM processor could be endowed with a cognitive ability to remember past structure-induced comm link outages, based on its knowledge of the ISS position, attitude, communications gear, array joint angles and tracking accuracy, it could convey such experience to the human operator. It could also use its learned communications link behaviors to accurately convey the availability of future communications sessions. Further, the tool could remember how accurately or inaccurately it predicted availability and correct future predictions based on past performance. The IAM tool could learn frequency-specific impacts due to spacecraft structures and pass that information along as "experience." Such development would provide a single artificial intelligence processor that could provide two different experience bases. If it also "knew" the satellite service schedule, it could distinguish structure blockage from schedule or planet blockage and then quickly switch to another satellite. Alternatively, just as a human operator could judge, a cognizant comm system based on the IAM model could "know" that the blockage is not going to last very long and continue tracking a comm satellite, waiting for it to track away from structure. Ultimately, once this capability was fully developed and tested in the Mission Control Center, it could be transferred on-orbit to support development of operations concepts that include more advanced cognitive communications systems. Future applications of this capability are easily foreseen because even more dynamic satellite constellations with more nodes and greater capability are coming. Currently, the ISS fully employs its high-data-rate return link for harvesting payload science. In the coming months, it will double that data rate and is forecast to fully utilize that capability. Already there is talk of an upgrade that quadruples the current data rate allocated to ISS payload science before the end of its mission and laser comm links have already been tested from the ISS. Every data rate upgrade mandates more complicated and sensitive communications equipment which implies greater expertise invested in the human operator. Future on-orbit cognizant comm systems will be needed to meet greater performance demands aboard larger, far more complicated spacecraft. In the LEO environment, the old-style one-satellite-per-spacecraft operations concept will give way to a new concept of a single customer spacecraft simultaneously using multiple comm satellites. Much more highly-dynamic manned LEO missions with decades of crew members potentially increase the demand for communications link performance. A cognizant on-board communications system will meet advanced communications demands from future LEO missions and future planetary missions. The ISS has fledgling components of future exploration programs, both LEO and planetary. Further, the Flight Operations Directorate, through the IAM project, has already begun to develop a communications management system that attempts to solve advanced problems ideally represented by dynamic structure impacting scheduled satellite service. With an earnest project to integrate artificial intelligence into the IAM processor, the ISS Program could develop a cognizant communications system that could be adapted and transferred to future on-orbit avionics designs.

Jackson, Dan↗
NASA NTRS1986

Multimegawatt nuclear electric propulsion - First order system design and performance evaluation

The development of space nuclear power supplies capable of delivering high levels of power (1 to 10 MWe) for long life (5 to 10 years) is being considered. An important potential application of these systems will be to provide power for advanced electric propulsion devices such as ion thrusters or Magneto-Plasma-Dynamic (MPD) thrusters. High-powered Nuclear Electric Propulsion (NEP) concepts based on both ion and MPD thrusters are reviewed. To allow for mission performance evaluation, power supply, power processing, and thruster subsystems are characterized for both ion and MPD propulsion systems designed for operation in the 1 to 10 MWe power range. Several proposed missions which are significantly enhanced by the performance potential of these devices are investigated. Studied missions include near-earth orbit raising, cis-lunar cargo transportation, and planetary exploration. If developed, these 1 to 10 MWe NEP systems may provide a technological base for the development of even larger propulsion systems with power levels of up to hundreds of megawatts. The potential performance and technologies associated with such ultra-high-powered NEP systems is explored.

Sercel, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Analysis of Potentially Hazardous Asteroids

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration initiated a new project focused on Planetary Defense on October 1, 2014. The new project is funded by NASAs Near Earth Object Program (Lindley Johnson, Program Executive). This presentation describes the objectives, functions and plans of four tasks encompassed in the new project and their inter-relations. Additionally, this project provides for outreach to facilitate partnerships with other organizations to help meet the objectives of the planetary defense community. The four tasks are (1) Characterization of Near Earth Asteroids, (2) Physics-Based Modeling of Meteor Entry and Breakup (3) Surface Impact Modeling and (4) Physics-Based Impact Risk Assessment.

Asteroids↗
NASA NTRS2012

Planetary Protection Concerns During Pre-Launch Radioisotope Power System Final Integration Activities

The Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) is a next-generation radioisotope-based power system that is currently being developed as an alternative to the Multi-Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (MMRTG). Power sources such as these may be needed for proposed missions to solar system planets and bodies that have challenging Planetary Protection (PP) requirements (e.g. Mars, Europa, Enceladus) that may support NASA s search for life, remnants of past life, and the precursors of life. One concern is that the heat from the ASRG could potentially create a region in which liquid water may occur. As advised by the NASA Planetary Protection Officer, when deploying an ASRG to Mars, the current COSPAR/NASA PP policy should be followed for Category IVc mission. Thus, sterilization processing of the ASRG to achieve bioburden reduction would be essential to meet the Planetary Protection requirements. Due to thermal constraints and associated low temperature limits of elements of the ASRG, vapor hydrogen peroxide (VHP) was suggested as a candidate alternative sterilization process to complement dry heat microbial reduction (DHMR) for the assembled ASRG. The following proposed sterilization plan for the ASRG anticipates a mission Category IVc level of cleanliness. This plan provides a scenario in which VHP is used as the final sterilization process. Keywords: Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG), Planetary Protection (PP), Vapor hydrogen peroxide (VHP) sterilization.

Chen, Fei↗
NASA NTRS1995

Exopaleontology at The Pathfinder Landing Site

The Mars Pathfinder Mission is a Discovery Class mission that will place a small lander and rover on the surface of Mars in July of 1997. It is primarily a technology demonstration to test the feasibility of a direct entry-delivery system, but carries a nominal scientific payload that includes rover-lander and instrumentation for limited mineralogical analysis. The nominal landing site was selected by the Pathfinder Team under the leadership of Dr. Matthew Golombek (JPL) based input from 60 participants at a Landing Site Workshop held last Spring at the Lunar Planetary Institute in Houston. The mission constraints for the landing site were 0-30 deg. N latitude, and below the 0.0 elevation datum. Over 20 landing sites were proposed and a nominal site was selected on southern Chryse Planitia near the terminae of the Ares and Tui outflow channels. In part, the decision to land at this location was based on the opportunity to sample a potentially large number lithologies in a small area (the rover will have a range of a few tens of meters from the lander). The purpose here is to review the general geological context of the landing site and the rationale for Exobiology's recommendation of the Ares site given at the workshop last spring. Because Ares and Tui Valles are sourced within terranes that may have originated by thermokarst processes, hydrothermal processes could have operated there for some time. Hydrothermal systems are presently regarded as important sites for a fossil record on Mars. Models for the formation of the outflow channels suggest that thermal spring sinters and associated aqueous mineral deposits, high priority targets for Mars Exopaleontology, could have formed in association with thermokarst processes and subsequently been delivered to the landing site in large quantities during the periodic cataclysmic outflows that created the channels.

Farmer, Jack D.↗
NASA NTRS1989

A near-earth optical communications terminal with a corevolving planetary sun shield

The umbra of a planet may serve as a sun shield for a space-based optical communications terminal or for a space-based astronomical observatory. An orbit that keeps the terminal or observatory within the umbra is desirable. There is a corevolution point behind every planet. A small body stabilized at the planet corevolution point will revolve about the sun at the same angular velocity as the planet, always keeping the planet between itself and the sun. This corevolution point is within the umbra of Mars but beyond the end of the umbra for Mercury, Venus, and earth. The Mars corevolution point is an ideal location for an astronomical observatory. There, Mars obstruct less than 0.00024 percent of the sky at any time, and it shades the observatory completely from the sun. At the earth corevolution point, between 51 and 84 percent of the solar disk area is blocked, as is up to 92 percent of the sunlight. This provides a reduction from 3 dB to 11 dB in sunlight that could interfere with optical communications if scattered directly into the detectors. The variations is caused by revolution of the earth about the earth-moon barycenter.

Kerr, E. L.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Solar concentrator technology development for space based applications, volume 1

Thermoelectric conversion using a radio-isotope heat source has been used where outer planetary space craft are too far away for absorbing significant solar energy. Solar dynamic power (SDP) conversion is one technology that offers advantages for applications within the inner planet region. Since SDP conversion efficiency can be 2 to 3 times higher than photovoltaic, the collecting surfaces are much reduced in area and therefore lighter. This becomes an advantage in allocating more weight to launched payloads. A second advantage results for low earth orbit applications. The reduced area results in lower drag forces on the spacecraft and requires less reboost propellant to maintain orbit. A third advantage occurs because of the sun-to-shade cycling while in earth orbit. Photovoltaic systems require batteries to store energy for use when in the shade, and battery life for periods of 10 to 15 years is not presently achievable. For these reasons the Solar Dynamics and Thermal Systems Branch at NASA LeRC has funded work in developing SDP systems. The generic SDP system uses a large parabolic solar concentrator to focus solar energy onto a power conversion device. The concentrators are large areas and must therefore be efficient and have low specific weights. Yet these surfaces must be precise and capable of being stowed in a launch vehicle and then deployed and sometimes unfurled in space. There are significant technical challenges in engineering such structures, and considerable investigation has been made to date. This is the first of two volumes reporting on the research done by the Advanced Manufacturing Center at Cleveland State University to assist NASA LeRC in evaluating this technology. The objective of the grant was to restore the solar concentrator development technology of the 1960s while improving it with advances that have occurred since then. This report summarizes the work done from January 1989 through December 1991.

Pintz, A.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Solar concentrator technology development for space based applications, volume 2

Thermoelectric conversion using a radio-isotope heat source has been used where outer planetary space craft are too far away for absorbing significant solar energy. Solar dynamic power (SDP) conversion is one technology that offers advantages for applications within the inner planet region. Since SDP conversion efficiency can be 2 to 3 times higher than photovoltaic, the collecting surfaces are much reduced in area and therefore lighter. This becomes an advantage in allocating more weight to launched payloads. A second advantage results for low earth orbit applications. The reduced area results in lower drag forces on the spacecraft and requires less reboost propellant to maintain orbit. A third advantage occurs because of the sun-to-shade cycling while in earth orbit. Photovoltaic systems require batteries to store energy for use when in the shade, and battery life for periods of 10 to 15 years is not presently achievable. For these reasons the Solar Dynamics and Thermal Systems Branch at NASA LeRC has funded work in developing SDP systems. The generic SDP system uses a large parabolic solar concentrator to focus solar energy onto a power conversion device. The concentrators are large areas and must therefore be efficient and have low specific weights. Yet these surfaces must be precise and capable of being stowed in a launch vehicle and then deployed and sometimes unfurled in space. There are significant technical challenges in engineering such structures, and considerable investigation has been made to date. This is the second of two volumes reporting on the research done by the Advanced Manufacturing Center at Cleveland State University to assist NASA LeRC in evaluating this technology. This volume includes the appendices of selected data sets, drawings, and procedures. The objective of the grant was to restore the solar concentrator development technology of the 1960s while improving it with advances that have occurred since then. This report summarizes the work done from January 1989 through December 1991.

Pintz, A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

In Situ Instrumentation for Sub-Surface Planetary Geochemistry

Novel instrumentation is under development at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, building upon earth-based techniques for hostile environments, to infer geochemical processes important to formation and evolution of solid bodies in our Solar System. A prototype instrument, the Pulsed Neutron Generator Gamma Ray and Neutron Detectors (PNG-GRAND), has a 14 MeV pulsed neutron generator coupled with gamma ray and neutron detectors to measure quantitative elemental concentrations and bulk densities of a number of major, minor and trace elements at or below the surfaces with approximately a meter-sized spatial resolution down to depths of about 50 cm without the need to drill. PNG-GRAND's in situ a meter-scale measurements and adaptability to a variety of extreme space environments will complement orbital kilometer-scale and in-situ millimeter scale elemental and mineralogical measurements to provide a more complete picture of the geochemistry of planets, moons, asteroids and comets.

Bodnarik, J.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Classifying planetary cloudiness with an updated set of MODIS Cloud Regimes

We present an updated Cloud Regime (CR) dataset based on Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 6.1 cloud products, specifically joint histograms that partition cloud fraction within distinct combinations of cloud top pressure and cloud optical thickness ranges. The paper focuses on an edition of the CR dataset derived from our own aggregation of MODIS pixel-level cloud retrievals on an equal area grid and pre-specified 3-hour UTC intervals that spatiotemporally match International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) gridded cloud data. The other edition comes from the 1-degree daily aggregation provided by standard MODIS Level-3 data, as in previous versions of the MODIS CRs, for easier use with datasets mapped on equal angle grids. Both editions consist of 11 clusters whose centroids are nearly identical.We provide a physical interpretation of the new CRs and aspects of their climatology that have not been previously examined, such as seasonal and interannual variability of CR frequency of occurrence. We also examine the makeup and precipitation properties of the CRs assisted by independent datasets originating from active observations, and provide a first glimpse of how MODIS CRs relate to clouds as seen by ISCCP.

MODIS↗
NASA NTRS2002

High-Performance, Space-Storable, Bi-Propellant Program Status

Bipropellant propulsion systems currently represent the largest bus subsystem for many missions. These missions range from low Earth orbit satellite to geosynchronous communications and planetary exploration. The payoff of high performance bipropellant systems is illustrated by the fact that Aerojet Redmond has qualified a commercial NTO/MMH engine based on the high Isp technology recently delivered by this program. They are now qualifying a NTO/hydrazine version of this engine. The advanced rhenium thrust chambers recently provided by this program have raised the performance of earth storable propellants from 315 sec to 328 sec of specific impulse. The recently introduced rhenium technology is the first new technology introduced to satellite propulsion in 30 years. Typically, the lead time required to develop and qualify new chemical thruster technology is not compatible with program development schedules. These technology development programs must be supported by a long term, Base R&T Program, if the technology s to be matured. This technology program then addresses the need for high performance, storable, on-board chemical propulsion for planetary rendezvous and descent/ascent. The primary NASA customer for this technology is Space Science, which identifies this need for such programs as Mars Surface Return, Titan Explorer, Neptune Orbiter, and Europa Lander. High performance (390 sec) chemical propulsion is estimated to add 105% payload to the Mars Sample Return mission or alternatively reduce the launch mass by 33%. In many cases, the use of existing (flight heritage) propellant technology is accommodated by reducing mission objectives and/or increasing enroute travel times sacrificing the science value per unit cost of the program. Therefore, a high performance storable thruster utilizing fluorinated oxidizers with hydrazine is being developed.

Schneider, Steven J.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Laer-induced Breakdown Spectroscopy Instrument for Element Analysis of Planetary Surfaces

One of the most fundamental pieces of information about any planetary body is the elemental and mineralogical composition of its surface materials. We are developing an instrument to obtain such data at ranges of up to several hundreds of meters using the technique of Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS). We envision our instrument being used from a spacecraft in close rendezvous with small bodies such as comets and asteroids, or deployed on surface-rover vehicles on large bodies such as Mars and the Moon. The elemental analysis is based on atomic emission spectroscopy of a laser-induced plasma or spark. A pulsed, diode pumped Nd:YAG laser of several hundred millijoules optical energy is used to vaporize and electronically excite the constituent elements of a rock surface remotely located from the laser. Light emitted from the excited plasma is collected and introduced to the entrance slit of a small grating spectrometer. The spectrally dispersed spark light is detected with either a linear photo diode array or area CCD array. When the latter detector is used, the optical and spectrometer components of the LIBS instrument can also be used in a passive imaging mode to collect and integrate reflected sunlight from the same rock surface. Absorption spectral analysis of this reflected light gives mineralogical information that provides a remote geochemical characterization of the rock surface. We performed laboratory calibrations in air and in vacuum on standard rock powders to quantify the LIBS analysis. We performed preliminary field tests using commercially available components to demonstrate remote LIBS analysis of terrestrial rock surfaces at ranges of over 25 m, and we have demonstrated compatibility with a six-wheeled Russian robotic rover vehicle. Based on these results, we believe that all major and most minor elements expected on planetary surfaces can be measured with absolute accuracy of 10-15 percent and much higher relative accuracy. We have performed preliminary systems analysis of a LIBS instrument to evaluate probable mass and power requirements; results of this analysis are summarized.

Blacic, J.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Source and event selection for radio-planetary frame-tie measurements using the Phobos Landers

The Soviet Phobos Lander mission will place two spacecraft on the Martian moon Phobos in 1989. Measurements of the range from Earth-based stations to the landers will allow an accurate determination of the ephemerides of Phobos and Mars. Delta Very Long Base Interferometry (VLBI) between the landers and compact radio sources nearby on the sky will be used to obtain precise estimates of the angular offset between the radio and planetary reference frames. The accuracy of this frame-tie estimate is expected to be in the vicinity of 10 mrad, depending on how well several error sources can be controlled (calibrated or reduced). Many candidate radio sources for VLBI measurements were identified, but additional work is necessary to select those sources which have characteristics appropriate to the present application. Strategies for performing the source selection are described.

Linfield, R.↗
NASA NTRS1996

A matched filter method for ground-based sub-noise detection of terrestrial extrasolar planets in eclipsing binaries: application to CM Draconis

The photometric detection of extrasolar planets by transits in eclipsing binary systems can be significantly improved by cross-correlating the observational light curves with synthetic models of possible planetary transit features, essentially a matched filter approach. We demonstrate the utility and application of this transit detection algorithm for ground-based detections of terrestrial-sized (Earth-to-Neptune radii) extrasolar planets in the dwarf M-star eclipsing binary system CM Draconis. Preliminary photometric observational data of this system demonstrate that the observational noise is well characterized as white and Gaussian at the observational time steps required for precision photometric measurements. Depending on planet formation scenarios, terrestrial-sized planets may form quite close to this low-luminosity system. We demonstrate, for example, that planets as small as 1.4 Earth radii with periods on the order of a few months in the CM Draconis system could be detected at the 99.9% confidence level in less than a year using 1-m class telescopes from the ground. This result contradicts commonly held assumptions limiting present ground-based efforts to, at best, detections of gas giant planets after several years of observation. This method can be readily extended to a number of other larger star systems with the utilization of larger telescopes and longer observing times. Its extension to spacecraft observations should also allow the determination of the presence of terrestrial-sized planets in nearly 100 other known eclipsing binary systems.

NASA Discipline Number 52-10↗
DOE OSTI2020

Kepler Data Analysis: Non-Gaussian Noise and Fourier Gaussian Process Analysis of Stellar Variability

We develop a statistical analysis model of Kepler stellar flux data in the presence of planet transits, non-Gaussian noise, and stellar variability. We first develop a model for the Kepler noise probability distribution in the presence of outliers, which make the noise probability distribution non-Gaussian. We develop a signal likelihood analysis based on this probability distribution, in which we model the signal as a sum of the star variability and planetary transits. We argue that these components need to be modeled together if optimal signal is to be extracted from the data. For the stellar variability model we develop an optimal Gaussian process analysis using a Fourier-based Wiener filter approach, where the power spectrum is non-parametric and learned from the data. We develop high dimensional optimization of the objective function, where we jointly optimize all the model parameters, including thousands of star variability modes, and planet transit parameters. We apply the method to Kepler-90 data and show that it gives a better match to the stellar variability than the existing methods, and robustly handles noise outliers. As a consequence, the planet radii have a higher value than what the existing methods give, including splines and celerite.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗