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DOE OSTI2022

Calibration of cloud and aerosol related parameters for solar irradiance forecasts in WRF-solar

Model parameters are a major source of uncertainty in numerical weather prediction. Recently, the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Solar extensions (WRF-Solar) has been upgraded by enhancing the treatment of sub-grid scale cloud and aerosols with augmentations of a sub-grid scale cloud scheme (CLD3) and an upgraded aerosol-aware Thompson-Eidhammer scheme (TE14). However, the value of model parameters associated with these parameterizations are assigned based on limited measurements or theoretical calculations. Calibrating the most sensitive parameters has the potential to improve solar irradiance predictions. Here, we adopted a multiobjective surrogate-based optimization (SBO) framework to calibrate nine parameters used in CLD3 and TE14 that lead to the largest sensitivity in simulated irradiance. The normalized mean-absolute-error (NMAE) of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) are minimized by calibrating WRF-Solar over two regions including the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and Central California, in order to focus on parameter calibration under cloudy conditions with different aerosol loading. The results show that generalized linear model (GLM)-based surrogate models approximate physical models well, particularly when the third order and three-way interaction terms are considered. The SBO framework efficiently searches the parameter space for optimal solutions with less computational costs than directly calibrating the physical model. We first calibrate CLD3 parameters over the less-polluted SGP region. Optimized CLD3 parameters alone result in NMAE reduction by 14% for the site-mean and up to 33% for individual cases over the SGP region. With further calibration of TE14 parameters over the Central California during active fire periods, the optimized parameters lead to over 20% reductions of NMAE. Our investigation reveals, however, that optimizing TE14 has a limited impact on irradiance simulations under less-polluted conditions in the SGP.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Low-Cost Heliostat for High-Flux Small-Area Receivers (Final Technical Report)

This project analyzed a two-stage heliostat concept consisting of a tracking stage and a concentrating stage. The tracking stage uses mirrors mounted on a common drive that move to track the sun. The concentrating stage consists of stationary mirrors that each have a unique angle to direct rays towards a small-area, high-flux, point-focused receiver. By splitting the collection and concentrating process into two stages, multiple small, inexpensive mirrors can share a structure and be controlled by a single drive in the tracking stage. The project effort developed modeling techniques that were specifically relevant to this two-stage heliostat concept. Both field-level and unit-level models were developed. The field-level model does not explicitly consider unit-level losses which are predicted by the unit-level model and then integrated into the field-level model through a correlation referred to as an efficiency modifier. This approach is referred to as the two-model approach; the development and demonstration of this two-model approach for a multi-stage heliostat technology is a key outcome of this work. The field-level model is used to design a field that hits a specific design day power given a set of heliostat design parameters. An oversized field is simulated and then heliostat units are removed based on their annual energy production in order to generate the highest performing field. The field reduction procedure fits a smooth curve fit to annual energy production as a function of position in the field which has the effect of reducing the noise that is otherwise caused by the Monte Carlo ray tracing technique. This approach is referred to as the annual energy fit method and substantially reduces computational run time for a given field level modeling accuracy. The annual energy fit approach enables the selection of a properly sized, high-performing field using orders of magnitude fewer rays than would otherwise be possible and the development of this approach is a second key outcome of this work. These models are used within a genetic optimization algorithm in order to optimize the geometric parameters associated with a heliostat in order to achieve the lowest cost per unit of collected design day power. The cost modeling that underlies the optimization is a simple, scaling type analysis backed up by a much more detailed Design for Manufacture and Assembly (DFMA) analysis. Although the figure of merit used for optimization was not cost per mirror area, this metric is reasonable to use as a means of comparison. The optimally designed 500 kW design has a tracking mirror specific cost of $181.85/m 2 , which is significantly larger than the target value and also larger than the current state of the art. The cost of the torque-tube type linkages contributed substantially to the overall cost. Based on this observation, potentially attractive alternative design configuration utilizing a capstan type actuation system should be investigated. Finally, NREL compared the performance of the two-stage heliostat to the performance of a focused and different sized flat conventional heliostats and showed that, as expected, additional losses versus the convention heliostat caused by a worse cosine efficiency, two stages of reflection, and interstage interactions. The two-stage heliostat requires around 75% more reflective area than a flat 1x1 meter conventional heliostat (similar to a focused heliostat) and 40% more than a flat 2x2 meter conventional heliostat.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1982

Generation of desired signals from acoustic drivers

A procedure to control transient signal generation is developed for the study of internal noise propagation from aircraft engines. A simple algorithm incorporating transform techniques is used to produce signals of any desired waveform from acoustic drivers. The accurate driver response is then calculated, and from this the limiting frequency characteristics are determined and the undesirable frequencies where the driver response is poor are eliminated from the analysis. A synthesized signal is then produced by convolving the inverse of the response function with the desired signal. Although the shape of the synthesized signal is in general quite awkward, the driver generates the desired signal when the distorted signal is fed into the driver. The results of operating the driver in two environments, in a free field and in a duct, are presented in order to show the impedance matching effect of the driver. In addition, results using a high frequency cut-off value as a parameter is presented in order to demonstrate the extent of the applicability of the synthesis procedure. It is concluded that the desired signals can be generated through the signal synthesis procedure.

Ramakrishnan, R.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Isothermal elastohydrodynamic lubrication of point contacts. III: Fully flooded results

The influence of the ellipticity parameter and the dimensionless speed U, load W, and material G parameters on minimum film thickness was investigated. The ellipticity parameter k was varied from 1 (a ball-on-plate configuration) to 8 (a configuration approaching a line contact). The dimensionless speed parameter was varied over a range of nearly two orders of magnitude. And the dimensionless load parameter was varied over a range of one order of magnitude. Conditions corresponding to the use of solid materials of bronze, steel, and silicon nitride and lubricants of paraffinic and naphthenic mineral oils were considered in obtaining the exponent on the dimensionless material parameter.

Hamrock, B. J.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Piezoviscous effects in nonconformal contacts lubricated hydrodynamically

The analysis is concerned with the piezoviscous-rigid regime of lubrication for the general case of elliptical contacts. In this regime several formulas of the lubricant film thickness have been proposed by Hamrock and Dowson, by Dowson et al., and more recently by Houpert. However, either they do not include the load parameter W, which has a strong effect on film thickness, or they overestimate the film thickness by using the Barus formula for pressure-viscosity characteristics. The Roelands formula was used for the pressure-viscosity relationship. The effects of the dimensionless load, speed, and materials parameters, the radius ratio, and the lubricant entrainment direction were investigated. The dimensionless load parameter was varied over a range of one order of magnitude. The dimensionless speed parameter was varied by 5.6 times the lowest value. Conditions corresponding to the use of solid materials of steel, bronze, and silicon nitride and lubricants of paraffinic and naphthenic mineral oil were considered in obtaining the exponent in the dimensionless materials parameter. The radius ratio was varied from 0.2 to 64 (a configuration approaching a line contact). Forty-one cases were used in obtaining a minimum film thickness formula. Contour plots indicate in detail the pressure developed between the contacting solids.

Jeng, Y. R.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Piezoviscous effects in nonconformal contacts lubricated hydrodynamically

Jeng, Yeau-Ren↗

NASA NTRS1990

Estimating short-period dynamics using an extended Kalman filter

An extended Kalman filter (EKF) is used to estimate the parameters of a low-order model from aircraft transient response data. The low-order model is a state space model derived from the short-period approximation of the longitudinal aircraft dynamics. The model corresponds to the pitch rate to stick force transfer function currently used in flying qualities analysis. Because of the model chosen, handling qualities information is also obtained. The parameters are estimated from flight data as well as from a six-degree-of-freedom, nonlinear simulation of the aircraft. These two estimates are then compared and the discrepancies noted. The low-order model is able to satisfactorily match both flight data and simulation data from a high-order computer simulation. The parameters obtained from the EKF analysis of flight data are compared to those obtained using frequency response analysis of the flight data. Time delays and damping ratios are compared and are in agreement. This technique demonstrates the potential to determine, in near real time, the extent of differences between computer models and the actual aircraft. Precise knowledge of these differences can help to determine the flying qualities of a test aircraft and lead to more efficient envelope expansion.

Bauer, Jeffrey E.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Beyond $Δm^2$: Absolute Mass Sensitivity in Neutrino Oscillations

Conventional wisdom says that neutrino oscillations measure only mass-squared differences and not the absolute neutrino mass scale. This is true, however, only at leading order in the expansion parameters $m_i/E$, the ratios of the neutrino masses $m_i$ ($i=1,2,3$) to the neutrino energy $E$. At next-to-leading order, the oscillation phase includes terms proportional to $m_i^4-m_j^4 = Δm^2_{ij}(m_i^2+m_j^2)$, and is therefore sensitive to the absolute mass scale. In this paper, we derive the next-to-leading-order corrections using a wave-packet treatment and taking into account the neutrino-production kinematics. We then apply this result to reactor antineutrinos and find that the JUNO experiment is sensitive to neutrino masses of a few hundred keV. While not competitive with existing bounds from beta decay, electron capture, and cosmology, neutrino oscillations provide a novel, complementary probe of the neutrino mass scale, with sensitivity to a different combination of neutrino masses.

Alves, Gustavo F.S. [Fermilab; Argonne; Northweste↗

NASA NTRS1993

Modulational stability of periodic solutions of the Kuramoto-Sivaskinsky equation

We study the long-wave, modulational, stability of steady periodic solutions of the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation. The analysis is fully nonlinear at first, and can in principle be carried out to all orders in the small parameter, which is the ratio of the spatial period to a characteristic length of the envelope perturbations. In the linearized regime, we recover a high-order version of the results of Frisch, She, and Thual, which shows that the periodic waves are much more stable than previously expected.

Papageorgiou, Demetrios T.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Solution and sensitivity analysis of nonlinear equations using a hypercomplex-variable Newton-Raphson method

Here, the classical Newton-Raphson (NR) method for solving nonlinear equations is enhanced in two ways through the use of hypercomplex variables and algebra. In particular, i) the Jacobian is computed in a highly accurate and automated way, and ii) the derivative of the solution to the nonlinear equations is computed with respect to any parameter contained within the system of equations. These advances provide two significant enhancements in that it is straightforward to provide an accurate Jacobian and to construct a reduced order model (ROM) of arbitrary order with respect to any parameter of the system. The ROM can then be used to approximate the solution for other parameter values without requiring additional solutions of the nonlinear equations. Several case studies are presented including 1D and 2D academic examples with fully functioning Python code provided. Additionally, a case of study of the catenary of an elastic cable subject to its own weight and a vertical point load. Derivatives up to 10th order were computed with respect to material, loading, and geometrical parameters. The derivatives were used to generate reduced order models of the cable deformation and reaction forces at its ends with respect to multiple input parameters. Results show that from a single hypercomplex evaluation of the cable under a single vertical point load, it is possible to generate an accurate reduced order model capable of predicting the cable deformation with 1.5 times the load in the opposite direction and with 3.5 times the load in the same direction without resolving the system of equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

An Experimental Study of the Solubility of Rare Earth Chloride Salts (La, Nd, Er) in HCl Bearing Water Vapor from 350 – 425 °C

In this work, the solubilities of the rare earth chlorides REECl 3 , where REE = (La, Nd, Er), were measured in HCl bearing water vapor from 350 – 425°C with water partial pressures ranging from 8 – 170 bar. Solubility data were fit to the Pitzer-Pabalan quasi-chemical model in order to extract thermodynamic parameters for the formation of the gaseous REE-chloride-water clusters REECl 3 (H 2 O) n . The data show that the solubility of the REE chlorides are orders of magnitude higher than salts such as NaCl or CuCl at low water fugacities, despite their sublimation energies being substantially higher. This enhanced solubility is likely due to the high enthalpy associated with binding a single water molecule to form the species REECl 3 (H 2 O), with derived enthalpies ranging from –378 to –465 kJ/mol. Addition of further water molecules to form higher order clusters (n > 1) involves enthalpy changes of ~ -20 kJ/mol, and are in effect thermodynamically suppressed over the temperature range 350 – 425°C. Despite the enhanced solubility of small REECl 3 water clusters, simulations of boiling processes demonstrate that the REE show highly conservative behavior, partitioning strongly into the dense aqueous phase. Not surprisingly, the presence of phosphates in the system makes this effect even more pronounced, completely immobilizing the REE. This would reduce transport in both the vapor and aqueous phase to negligible levels. However, we suggest that vapor phase transport of the REE may play a significant role in systems having a relatively low partial pressure of water (below the saturation point), where the relatively high stability of the first hydrated REE chloride clusters (REECl 3 (H 2 O) and REECl 3 (H 2 O) 2 ) will give a preference for gas transport of the REE relative to other elements. This can likely happen in systems involving a gas/melt exchange in fumarolic exhalations, where water vapor discharges at relatively low (close to atmospheric) pressures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1981

A study of model parameters associated with the urban climate using HCMM data

Progress in the study of the intensity of the urban heat island is reported. The intensity of the heat island is commonly defined as the temperature difference between the center of the city and the surrounding suburban and rural regions. The intensity is considered as a function of changes in the season and changes in meteorological conditions in order to derive various parameters which may be used in numerical models for urban climate. Twelve case studies were selected and CCT's were ordered. In situ data was obtained from sixteen stations scattered about the city of St. Louis. Upper-air meteorological data were obtained and the water vapor and the temperature data were processed. Atmospheric transmissivities were computed for each of the case studies.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian Learning of Adatom Interactions from Atomically Resolved Imaging Data

Atomic structures and adatom geometries of surfaces encode information about the thermodynamics and kinetics of the processes that lead to their formation, and which can be captured by a generative physical model. In this work, we develop a workflow based on a machine-learning-based analysis of scanning tunneling microscopy images to reconstruct the atomic and adatom positions, and a Bayesian optimization procedure to minimize statistical distance between the chosen physical models and experimental observations. We optimize the parameters of a 2- and 3-parameter Ising model describing surface ordering and use the derived generative model to make predictions across the parameter space. For concentration dependence, we compare the predicted morphologies at different adatom concentrations with the dissimilar regions on the sample surfaces that serendipitously had different adatom concentrations. The proposed workflow can be used to reconstruct the thermodynamic models and associated uncertainties from the experimental observations of materials microstructures. The code used in the manuscript is available at https://github.com/saimani5/Adatom_interactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1975

Second-order small-disturbance solutions for hypersonic flow over power-law bodies

Similarity solutions were found which give the adiabatic flow of an ideal gas about two-dimensional and axisymmetric power-law bodies at infinite Mach number to second order in the body slenderness parameter. The flow variables were expressed as a sum of zero-order and perturbation similarity functions for which the axial variations in the flow equations separated out. The resulting similarity equations were integrated numerically. The solutions, which are universal functions, are presented in graphic and tabular form. To avoid a singularity in the calculations, the results are limited to body power-law exponents greater than about 0.85 for the two-dimensional case and 0.75 for the axisymmetric case. Because of the entropy layer induced by the nose bluntness (for power-law bodies other than cones and wedges), only the pressure function is valid at the body surface. The similarity results give excellent agreement with the exact solutions for inviscid flow over wedges and cones having half-angles up to about 20 deg. They give good agreement with experimental shock-wave shapes and surface-pressure distributions for 3/4-power axisymmetric bodies, considering that Mach number and boundary-layer displacement effects are not included in the theory.

Townsend, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS2011

A (201)Hg+ Comagnetometer for (199)Hg+ Trapped Ion Space Atomic Clocks

A method has been developed for unambiguously measuring the exact magnetic field experienced by trapped mercury ions contained within an atomic clock intended for space applications. In general, atomic clocks are insensitive to external perturbations that would change the frequency at which the clocks operate. On a space platform, these perturbative effects can be much larger than they would be on the ground, especially in dealing with the magnetic field environment. The solution is to use a different isotope of mercury held within the same trap as the clock isotope. The magnetic field can be very accurately measured with a magnetic-field-sensitive atomic transition in the added isotope. Further, this measurement can be made simultaneously with normal clock operation, thereby not degrading clock performance. Instead of using a conventional magnetometer to measure ambient fields, which would necessarily be placed some distance away from the clock atoms, first order field-sensitive atomic transition frequency changes in the atoms themselves determine the variations in the magnetic field. As a result, all ambiguity over the exact field value experienced by the atoms is removed. Atoms used in atomic clocks always have an atomic transition (often referred to as the clock transition) that is sensitive to magnetic fields only in second order, and usually have one or more transitions that are first-order field sensitive. For operating parameters used in the (199)Hg(+) clock, the latter can be five orders of magnitude or more sensitive to field fluctuations than the clock transition, thereby providing an unambiguous probe of the magnetic field strength.

Burt, Eric A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

A method for examining ensemble averaging forms during the transition to turbulence in HED systems for application to RANS models

This paper discusses a strategy to initialize a two-dimensional (2D) Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes model [LANL's Besnard–Harlow–Rauenzahn (BHR) model] in order to describe an unsteady transitional Richtmyer–Meshkov (RM)-induced flow observed in on-going high-energy-density ensemble experiments performed on the OMEGA-EP facility. The experiments consist of a nominal single-mode perturbation (initial amplitude a 0 ≈ 10 and wavelength $λ$ = 100μm) with target-to-target variations in the surface roughness subjected to the RM instability with delayed Rayleigh–Taylor in a heavy-to-light configuration. Our strategy leverages high-resolution three-dimensional (3D) implicit large eddy simulations (ILES) simulations to initialize BHR-relevant parameters and subsequently validate the 2D BHR results against the 3D ILES simulations. A suite of five 3D ILES simulations corresponding to five experimental target profiles is undertaken to generate an ensemble dataset. Using ensemble averages from the 3D simulations to initialize the turbulent kinetic energy in the BHR model ( K 0 ) demonstrates the ability of the model to predict the time evolution of the interface as well as the density-specific-volume covariance, b . To quantify the sensitivity of the BHR results to the choice of K 0 and the initial turbulent length scale, S 0 , we execute a parameter sweep spanning four orders of magnitude for both S 0 and K 0 , generating a parameter space consisting of 26 simulations. The Pearson's correlation coefficient is used as a measure of discrepancy between the 2D BHR and 3D ILES simulations and reveals that the ranges 8≲S 0 ≲20 μm and 10 9 ≲K 0 ≲10 10 cm 2 /s 2 produce predictions that agree best with the 3D ILES results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Data-driven surrogates for high dimensional models using Gaussian process regression on the Grassmann manifold

This paper introduces a surrogate modeling scheme based on Grassmannian manifold learning to be used for cost-efficient predictions of high-dimensional stochastic systems. The method exploits subspace-structured features of each solution by projecting it onto a Grassmann manifold. This point-wise linear dimensionality reduction harnesses the structural information to assess the similarity between solutions at different points in the input parameter space. The method utilizes a solution clustering approach in order to identify regions of the parameter space over which solutions are sufficiently similarly such that they can be interpolated on the Grassmannian. In this clustering, the reduced-order solutions are partitioned into disjoint clusters on the Grassmann manifold using the eigen-structure of properly defined Grassmannian kernels and, the Karcher mean of each cluster is estimated. Then, the points in each cluster are projected onto the tangent space with origin at the corresponding Karcher mean using the exponential mapping. For each cluster, a Gaussian process regression model is trained that maps the input parameters of the system to the reduced solution points of the corresponding cluster projected onto the tangent space. Using this Gaussian process model, the full-field solution can be efficiently predicted at any new point in the parameter space. In certain cases, the solution clusters will span disjoint regions of the parameter space. In such cases, for each of the solution clusters we utilize a second, density-based spatial clustering to group their corresponding input parameter points in the Euclidean space. The proposed method is applied to two numerical examples. Here, the first is a nonlinear stochastic ordinary differential equation with uncertain initial conditions where the surrogate is used to predict the time history solution. The second involves modeling of plastic deformation in a model amorphous solid using the Shear Transformation Zone theory of plasticity, where the proposed surrogate is used to predict the full strain field of a material specimen under large shear strains.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1989

The determination of third order linear models from a seventh order nonlinear jet engine model

Results are presented that demonstrate how good reduced-order models can be obtained directly by recursive parameter identification using input/output (I/O) data of high-order nonlinear systems. Three different methods of obtaining a third-order linear model from a seventh-order nonlinear turbojet engine model are compared. The first method is to obtain a linear model from the original model and then reduce the linear model by standard reduction techniques such as residualization and balancing. The second method is to identify directly a third-order linear model by recursive least-squares parameter estimation using I/O data of the original model. The third method is to obtain a reduced-order model from the original model and then linearize the reduced model. Frequency responses are used as the performance measure to evaluate the reduced models. The reduced-order models along with their Bode plots are presented for comparison purposes.

Lalonde, Rick J.↗