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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2013

Lessons Learned from the Stardust Sample Return Mission

These are science and mission design and operations lessons learned from the Stardust Mission, which returned grains from comet Wild-2 and fresh interstellar dust to Earth in 2006 [1]. Science Lessons: Major discoveries of the Stardust Wild-2 samples include the presence of numerous chondrules and CAI in a comet, which requires a much more dynamic early solar system than many had envisaged, and verified predictions made by models requiring outward flow of early solar system solids before the early nebular gas had dissipated [1-3]. No evidence has been found for the presence of live Al-26 in the comet, suggesting late accretion [4]. Carbonates and unusual sulfides were found which potentially require activity of liquid water within the comet, but to only a minor degree at best [5-6]. The presence of abundant thermally-metamorphosed silicates in Wild-2 appears to require assembly from an earlier generation of bodies [7]. The abundance of presolar grains in the Wild-2 samples appears to be below what has been found in most chondritic IDPs and primitive chondrites [1]. The bulk mineralogy of Wild-2 grains does not match the mineralogy from any single other known astromaterial [7], and is also strikingly unlike that inferred from Spitzer Telescope spectra of Comet Temple 1 dust [8]. Amino acids and other fragile organics have been detected among the Wild-2 samples [9], which highlights the critical importance of further developing techniques for organic analysis in small samples, and cleaning outbound spacecraft.

Zolensky, M. E.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Pre-Flight Dark Forward Electrical Testing of the Mir Cooperative Solar Array

The Mir Cooperative Solar Array (MCSA) was developed jointly by the United States (US) and Russia to provide approximately 6 kW of photovoltaic power to the Russian space station Mir. After final assembly in Russia, the MCSA was shipped to the NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) in the summer of 1995 and launched to Mir in November 1995. Program managers were concerned of the potential for MCSA damage during the transatlantic shipment and the associated handling operations. To address this concern, NASA Lewis Research Center (LERC) developed an innovative dark-forward electrical test program to assess the gross electrical condition of each generator following shipment from Russia. The use of dark test techniques, which allow the array to remain in the stowed configuration, greatly simplifies the checkout of large area solar arrays. MCSA dark electrical testing was successfully performed at KSC in July 1995 following transatlantic shipment. Data from this testing enabled engineers to quantify the effects of potential MCSA physical damage that would degrade on-orbit electrical performance. In this paper, an overview of the principles and heritage of photovoltaic array dark testing is given. The specific MCSA dark test program is also described including the hardware, software, testing procedures and test results. The current-voltage (4) response of both solar cell circuitry and by-pass diode circuitry was obtained. To guide the development of dark test hardware, software and procedures, a dedicated FORTRAN computer code was developed to predict the dark 4 responses of generators with a variety of feasible damage modes. By comparing the actual test data with the predictions, the physical condition of the generator could be inferred. Based on this data analysis, no electrical short-circuits or open-circuits were detected. This suggested the MCSA did not sustain physical damage that affected electrical performance during handling and shipment from Russia to the US. Good agreement between the test data and computational predictions indicated MCSA electrical performance was amenable to accurate analysis and was well understood.

Kerslake, Thomas W.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Extending the thermodynamic form factor bootstrap program: multiple particle-hole excitations, crossing symmetry, and reparameterization invariance

In this study, we further the thermodynamic bootstrap program which involves a set of recently developed ideas used to determine thermodynamic form factors of local operators in integrable quantum field theories. These form factors are essential building blocks for dynamic correlation functions at finite temperatures or non-equilibrium stationary states. In this work we extend this program in three ways. Firstly, we demonstrate that the conjectured annihilation pole axiom is valid in the low energy particle-hole excitations. Secondly, we introduce a crossing relation, which establishes a connection between form factors with different excitation content. Typically, the crossing relation is a consequence of Lorentz invariance, but due to the finite energy density of the considered states, Lorentz invariance is broken. Nonetheless a crossing relation involving excitations with both particles and holes can established using the finite volume representation of the thermodynamic form factors. Finally, we demonstrate that the thermodynamic form factors satisfy a reparameterization invariance, an invariance which encompasses crossing. Reparameterization invariance exploits the fact that the details of the representation of the thermodynamic state are unimportant. In the course of developing these results, we demonstrate the internal consistency of the thermodynamic form factor bootstrap program in a number of ways. Finally, we provide explicit computations of form factors of conserved charges and densities with crossed excitations and show our results can be used to infer information about thermodynamic form factors in the Lieb-Liniger model.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Role of Demixing and Crystallization Kinetics on the Stability of Non‐Fullerene Organic Solar Cells

Abstract With power conversion efficiency now over 17%, a long operational lifetime is essential for the successful application of organic solar cells. However, most non‐fullerene acceptors can crystallize and destroy devices, yet the fundamental underlying thermodynamic and kinetic aspects of acceptor crystallization have received limited attention. Here, room‐temperature (RT) diffusion coefficients of 3.4 × 10 −23 and 2.0 × 10 −22 are measured for ITIC‐2Cl and ITIC‐2F, two state‐of‐the‐art non‐fullerene acceptors. The low coefficients are enough to provide for kinetic stabilization of the morphology against demixing at RT. Additionally profound differences in crystallization characteristics are discovered between ITIC‐2F and ITIC‐2Cl. The differences as observed by secondary‐ion mass spectrometry, differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), grazing‐incidence wide‐angle X‐ray scattering, and microscopy can be related directly to device degradation and are attributed to the significantly different nucleation and growth rates, with a difference in the growth rate of a factor of 12 at RT. ITIC‐4F and ITIC‐4Cl exhibit similar characteristics. The results reveal the importance of diffusion coefficients and melting enthalpies in controlling the growth rates, and that differences in halogenation can drastically change crystallization kinetics and device stability. It is furthermore delineated how low nucleation density and large growth rates can be inferred from DSC and microscopy experiments which could be used to guide molecular design for stability.

Hu, Huawei↗

DOE OSTI2025

Intercomparison of Three Continuous Monitoring Systems on Operating Oil and Gas Sites

We compare continuous monitoring systems (CMS) from three different vendors on six operating oil and gas sites in the Appalachian Basin using several months of data. We highlight similarities and differences between the three CMS solutions when deployed in the field and compare their output to concurrent top-down aerial measurements and to site-level bottom-up inventories. Furthermore, we compare vendor-provided emission rate estimates to estimates from an open-source quantification algorithm applied to the raw CMS concentration data. This experimental setup allows us to separate the effect of the sensor platform (i.e., sensor type and arrangement) from the quantification algorithm. We find that 1) localization and quantification estimates rarely agree between the three CMS solutions on short time scales (i.e., 30 min), but temporally aggregated emission rate distributions are similar between solutions, 2) differences in emission rate distributions are generally driven by the quantification algorithm, rather than the sensor platform, 3) agreement between CMS and aerial rate estimates varies by CMS solution but is close to parity when CMS estimates are averaged across solutions, and 4) similar sites with similar bottom-up inventories do not necessarily have similar emission characteristics. These results have important implications for developing measurement-informed inventories and for incorporating CMS-inferred emission characteristics into emission mitigation efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cy-Phy ADS: Cyber Physical Anomaly Detection Framework for EV Charging Systems

Today’s large-scale Electric Vehicle (EV) infrastructures are heavily dependent on information communication technologies to maintain their operation and to support communication within sub-system components as well as the outside world. These technologies are vulnerable to various cyber and physical threats. Timely identification and mitigation of these threats are critical for improving human safety, avoiding economic losses, and preventing catastrophic system failures. By addressing this, our work presents a ResNet Autoencoder (AE) based Cyber-Physical Anomaly Detection System (Cy-Phy ADS) for detecting anomalies in EV Controller Area Network (CAN) protocol communication. It consists of four main components: Cyber-Physical Feature Extractor, ResNet AE-based Anomaly Detection Framework, Cyber-Physical Health Metric (CPHM), and Visualization Dashboard. The presented framework was trained and tested using CAN data collected from the EV charging system testbed at the Idaho National Laboratory. The presented Cy-Phy ADS compared against six widely used unsupervised anomaly detection algorithms: One Class Support Vector Machine (OCSVM), Variational Autoencoder (VAE), LSTM Autoencoder (LSTM AE), Isolation Forest (IForest), Principle Component Analysis (PCA) and Local Outlier Factor (LOF). Here the presented approach showed the highest accuracy among the compared methods. Further, the proposed approach showed comparable performance in terms of precision, F1, and False positive rate. It also showed the lowest training and inference time compared to the neural network-based baseline algorithms compared against with. Additionally, the Cy-Phy ADS has advantages such as unsupervised training, the ability to provide a holistic metric for system health characterization, and non-linear feature extraction.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantum model learning agent: characterisation of quantum systems through machine learning

Accurate models of real quantum systems are important for investigating their behaviour, yet are difficult to distil empirically. Here, we report an algorithm—the quantum model learning agent (QMLA)—to reverse engineer Hamiltonian descriptions of a target system. We test the performance of QMLA on a number of simulated experiments, demonstrating several mechanisms for the design of candidate Hamiltonian models and simultaneously entertaining numerous hypotheses about the nature of the physical interactions governing the system under study. QMLA is shown to identify the true model in the majority of instances, when provided with limited a priori information, and control of the experimental setup. Our protocol can explore Ising, Heisenberg and Hubbard families of models in parallel, reliably identifying the family which best describes the system dynamics. We demonstrate QMLA operating on large model spaces by incorporating a genetic algorithm to formulate new hypothetical models. The selection of models whose features propagate to the next generation is based upon an objective function inspired by the Elo rating scheme, typically used to rate competitors in games such as chess and football. In all instances, our protocol finds models that exhibit F 1 score ≥ 0.88 when compared with the true model, and it precisely identifies the true model in 72% of cases, whilst exploring a space of over 250 000 potential models. By testing which interactions actually occur in the target system, QMLA is a viable tool for both the exploration of fundamental physics and the characterisation and calibration of quantum devices.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Gauges, loops, and polynomials for partition functions of graphical models

Graphical models represent multivariate and generally not normalized probability distributions. Computing the normalization factor, called the partition function, is the main inference challenge relevant to multiple statistical and optimization applications. The problem is #P-hard that is of an exponential complexity with respect to the number of variables. Here, aimed at approximating the partition function, we consider multi-graph models where binary variables and multivariable factors are associated with edges and nodes, respectively, of an undirected multi-graph. We suggest a new methodology for analysis and computations that combines the Gauge function technique from Chertkov and Chernyak with the technique developed in Anari and Oveis Gharan 2017 arXiv:1702.02937; Gurvits 2011 arXiv:1106.2844; Straszak and Vishnoi 2017 55th Annual Allerton Conf. on Communication, Control, and Computing, based on the recent progress in the field of real stable polynomials. We show that the Gauge function, representing a single-out term in a finite sum expression for the partition function which achieves extremum at the so-called belief-propagation gauge, has a natural polynomial representation in terms of gauges/variables associated with edges of the multi-graph. Moreover, Gauge function can be used to recover the partition function through a sequence of transformations allowing appealing algebraic and graphical interpretations. Algebraically, one step in the sequence consists of the application of a differential operator over gauges associated with an edge. Graphically, the sequence is interpreted as a repetitive elimination/contraction of edges resulting in multi-graph models on decreasing in size (number of edges) graphs with the same partition function as in the original multi-graph model. Even though the complexity of computing factors in the sequence of the derived multi-graph models and respective Gauge functions grow exponentially with the number of eliminated edges, polynomials associated with the new factors remain bi-stable if the original factors have this property. Moreover, we show that BP estimations in the sequence do not decrease, each low-bounding the partition function.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Employing Eye Trackers to Reduce Nuisance Alarms

When process operators anticipate an alarm prior to its annunciation, that alarm loses information value and becomes a nuisance. This study investigated using eye trackers to measure and adjust the salience of alarms with three methods of gaze-based acknowledgement (GBA) of alarms that estimate operator anticipation. When these methods detected possible alarm anticipation, the alarm’s audio and visual salience was reduced. A total of 24 engineering students (male = 14, female = 10) aged between 18 and 45 were recruited to predict alarms and control a process parameter in three scenario types (parameter near threshold, trending, or fluctuating). The study evaluated whether behaviors of the monitored parameter affected how frequently the three GBA methods were utilized and whether reducing alarm salience improved control task performance. The results did not show significant task improvement with any GBA methods (F(3,69) = 1.357, p = 0.263, partial η 2 = 0.056). However, the scenario type affected which GBA method was more utilized (X 2 (2, N = 432) = 30.147, p < 0.001). Alarm prediction hits with gaze-based acknowledgements coincided more frequently than alarm prediction hits without gaze-based acknowledgements (X 2 (1, N = 432) = 23.802, p < 0.001, OR = 3.877, 95% CI 2.25–6.68, p < 0.05). Participant ratings indicated an overall preference for the three GBA methods over a standard alarm design (F(3,63) = 3.745, p = 0.015, partial η 2 = 0.151). This study provides empirical evidence for the potential of eye tracking in alarm management but highlights the need for additional research to increase validity for inferring alarm anticipation.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

NASA NTRS2021

A theoretical assessment of the feasibility of potential Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter radio occultation observations of the lunar ionosphere

The existence of a “dense” lunar ionosphere has been controversial for decades. Positive ions produced from the lunar surface and exosphere are inferred to have densities that are.106– 107m−3near the surface and smaller at higher altitudes, yet electron densities derived from radio occultation measurements occasionally exceed these values by orders of magnitude. For example, about 4% of the single-spacecraft radio occultation measurements from Kaguya/SELENE were consistent with peak electron densities of∼3×108m−3. Space plasmas should be neutral on macroscopic scales, so this represents a substantial discrepancy. Additional observations of electron densities in the lunar ionosphere are critical to resolving this long standing paradox. Here we theoretically assess whether radio occultation observations using two-way coherent S-band radio signals from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) spacecraft could provide useful measurements of electron densities in the lunar ionosphere. We predict the uncertainty in a single LRO radio occultation measurement of electron density to be∼3×108m−3, comparable to occasional observations by Kaguya/SELENE of a dense lunar ionosphere. Thus an individual profile from LRO is unlikely to reliably detect the lunar ionosphere; however, averages of multiple (∼10) LRO profiles acquired under similar geophysical and viewing conditions should be able to make reliable detections. An observing rate of six ingress occultations per day (∼2000 per year) could be achieved with mini-mal impact on current LRO operations. This rate compares favorably with the 378observations reported from the single-spacecraft experiment on Kaguya/SELENE between November 2007 and June 2009. The large number of observations possible for LRO would be sufficient to permit wide-ranging investigations of spatial and temporal variations in the poorly understood lunar ionosphere. These findings strengthen efforts to conduct such observations with LRO.

Paul Withers↗

DOE OSTI2020

Seismic tomography of compressional wave velocity and attenuation structure for Makushin Volcano, Alaska

Located in the central portion of the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone, Makushin Volcano is among the most active volcanoes in the United States and has been classified as a very high threat by the National Volcano Early Warning System based on its eruptive history and proximity to the City of Unalaska and international air routes. In 2015, five standalone seismic stations and three mini seismic arrays of 15 stations each were deployed on Unalaska Island to supplement the Alaska Volcano Observatory permanent seismic network. This temporary array was operational for one year. Taking advantage of the increased azimuthal coverage and the array's increased earthquake detection capability, we developed body-wave Vp and Vp/Vs seismic images of the velocity structure beneath the volcano. Our results show a complex structure with the upper 4 km of the crust. The shallow high-Vp features possibly delineate remnant magma pathways or conduits. Low-Vp regions are found east of the caldera at approximately 4–8 km depth. This is in agreement with previous seismic tomographic work and InSAR-based geodetic models, which had identified this region as a possible long-term source of magma. A three-dimensional compressional wave attenuation model complemented the velocity models. In general, we observe regions of corresponding low P-wave velocity and high attenuation east of the summit caldera between 5 and 7 km depth, supporting the presence of a melt-rich zone. The absolute Vp values (5.5–6.0 km/s) in this region are consistent with the presence of a magma body with a mafic signature. Here, we suggest that a triggering mechanism that involves mafic injections into a more evolved shallow magma chamber is representative of the current magmatic system below the volcano, similarly to what petrological studies have inferred for past eruptions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2012

Using the VAHIRR Radar Algorithm to Investigate Lightning Cessation

Accurately determining the threat posed by lightning is a major area for improved operational forecasts. Most efforts have focused on the initiation of lightning within a storm, with far less effort spent investigating lightning cessation. Understanding both components, initiation and cessation, are vital to improving lightning safety. Few organizations actively forecast lightning onset or cessation. One such organization is the 45th Weather Squadron (45WS) for the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45WS has identified that charged anvil clouds remain a major threat of continued lightning and can greatly extend the window of a potential lightning strike. Furthermore, no discernable trend of total lightning activity has been observed consistently for all storms. This highlights the need for more research to find a robust method of knowing when a storm will cease producing lightning. Previous lightning cessation work has primarily focused on forecasting the cessation of cloud-to -ground lightning only. A more recent, statistical study involved total lightning (both cloud-to-ground and intracloud). Each of these previous works has helped the 45WS take steps forward in creating improved and ultimately safer lightning cessation forecasts. Each study has either relied on radar data or recommended increased use of radar data to improve cessation forecasts. The reasoning is that radar data is able to either directly or by proxy infer more about dynamical environment leading to cloud electrification and eventually lightning cessation. The authors of this project are focusing on a two ]step approach to better incorporate radar data and total lightning to improve cessation forecasts. This project will utilize the Volume Averaged Height Integrated Radar Reflectivity (VAHIRR) algorithm originally developed during the Airborne Field Mill II (ABFM II) research project. During the project, the VAHIRR product showed a trend of increasing values with increases in the electric field magnitude above 3 kV/m. An extreme value analysis showed that VAHIRR values less than or equal to 10 dBZ-km showed that the probability of having an electric field magnitude larger than 3 kV/m was less than one in ten thousand. VAHIRR also was found to be sensitive at indicating anvil clouds that posed a threat of initiating a lightning flash. This project seeks to use VAHIRR to analyze its utility as a lightning cessation tool, particularly dealing with the threat posed by detached anvils. The results from this project will serve as a baseline effectiveness of radar ]based lightning cessation algorithms. This baseline will be used in the second, and concurrent work by the co ]author fs who are developing a lightning cessation algorithm based on dual ]polarimetric radar data. Ultimately, an accurate method for identifying lightning cessation can save money on lost manpower time as well as greatly improve lightning safety.

Stano, Geoffrey T.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Prognostics for Systems Health Management - Model and Hybrid Based Approaches. Where are We Heading?

To facilitate and solve the prediction problem, awareness of the current state and health of the system is key, since it is necessary to perform condition-based system health predictions. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditional. In case of next generation electric aircrafts, computing remaining flying time is safety-critical, since an aircraft that runs out of power (battery charge) while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastrophe. In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current health state of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to predict the future state of the system, it is also required to possess knowledge of the current and future operational conditions and flight profiles for accurate estimation of end-of-discharge (EOD) for the batteries. Similar framework can be implemented to other complex systems and subsystems. Our research approach is to develop a system level health monitoring safety indicator which runs estimation and prediction algorithms to estimate remaining useful life predictions at system, subsystem swell as component levels. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics is discussed as a solution to the prediction problem and further for decision making. Data driven prognostics approaches have been equally used with good results in the past, where respective approaches have their own challenges to tackle. This limits their applicability to complex real-world domains: (a) high complexity or incompleteness of physics-based models and (b) limited representativeness of the training dataset for data-driven models. With the advent of internet of things for data collection and increased use of ML algorithms, hybrid approaches are the next avenue to reduce the challenges and achieve better results. An hybrid framework for fusing information from physics-based performance models along with deep learning algorithms for prognostics of complex safety critical systems is presented. In this framework, we use physics-based performance models to infer unobservable model parameters related to the system's components health solving a calibration problem.

Prognostics↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Data Processing Pipeline for Adversarial Socio-Technical Network Analysis

With the rapid adoption of emerging technologies, there is a need to catalog and model sociotechnical interdependencies that have been historically used to influence the operation of Critical Infrastructure networks including the impacts of mergers and acquisitions, hostile takeovers, and foreign investment. Our research intends to address this need with two primary contributions. First, we have developed a data curation and processing pipeline to generate sociotechnical networks extracted from a variety of data sources including SEC filings and infrastructure asset databases. The pipeline, implemented in Apache Airflow, extracts and normalizes the representation of entities and relations, specified within ontologies. Our intent is to provide an extensible, machine-actionable approach to quickly communicate such models, reproduce previous results, and adapt them to new, unanticipated situations. Second, networks produced by our pipeline enable the development of graph-theoretic metrics that consider the properties of network components in addition to its topology. Metadata associated with network components---whether semantic, temporal, or geospatial---affects the alignment of generated networks with assumptions underlying complexity metrics. Validation of generated networks relative to component types defined by an ontology, may allow the research community to adapt metrics to the semantics of the domains being studied. Generated networks may be processed as knowledge, dynamic, or spatial graphs and enables a variety of analyses including automated reasoning and measures of network complexity. Automated reasoning views extracted entities and relations as a knowledge graph; this enables application of inference rules that represent historically-attested adversarial business methods and applies that behavior to a specific geographic context. Measures of network complexity, including degree distribution, reachability analyses, temporal analysis, and community detection can be adapted to indicate adversarial organizational influence.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1992

A Backscatter Moessbauer Spectrometer (BaMS) for use on Mars

The use of Moessbauer spectroscopy for in situ analysis on the surface of Mars was proposed and the design and implementation of a backscatter Moessbauer spectrometer (BaMS) instrument suitable for planetary missions to the surfaces of Mars (MESUR), the Moon (Artemis and lunar outpost), asteroids, or other solid solar system objects is discussed. The BaMS instrument is designed to be capable of analysis of a sample for the mineralogy of its iron-bearing phases without any sample preparation. A requirement of lander missions to Mars is instrumentation for in situ mineralogical analyses. Such analyses provide data needed for primary characterization as to the type of surface materials present and by inference the processes that formed and subsequently modified them. For purposes of providing diagnostic information about naturally occurring materials, the element iron is particularly important because it is abundant and multivalent (primarily 0, +2, and +3 oxidation states). Knowledge of the oxidation state of iron and its distribution among iron-bearing mineralogies tightly constrains the types of materials present. The pivotal role of iron was already recognized in 1978 by COMPLEX, who recommended development of flight instruments that would identify mineralogy and the oxidation state of iron in planetary surface materials. The near-term U.S. strategy for the exploration of Mars is the MESUR (Mars Environmental SURvey) program, which entails emplacement of a network of small, long-lived surface landers. For the Moon, BaMS was recommended as part of a three-instrument landed payload for the Artemis missions, targeted for 1997. BaMS would prospect for ilmenite, an oxygen resource material, and provide data to assess the maturity of lunar soil. Because instrumental characteristics are low mass, low volume, and low power consumption, BaMS is suitable for implementation on even small landers and rovers, as are being envisioned in MESUR and Artemis concepts. In addition to providing highly diagnostic data, a BaMS analyzer is inherently simple and, as is highly desirable for remote operation, no sample preparation is required.

Agresti, D. G.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Automated Monitoring with a BCP Fault-Decision Test

The Bayesian conditional probability (BCP) technique is a statistical fault-decision technique that is suitable as the mathematical basis of the fault-manager module in the automated-monitoring system and method described in the immediately preceding article. Within the automated-monitoring system, the fault-manager module operates in conjunction with the fault-detector module, which can be based on any one of several fault-detection techniques; examples include a threshold-limit-comparison technique or the BSP or SPRT technique mentioned in the preceding article. The present BCP technique is used to evaluate a series of one or more fault-detection events for the purpose of filtering out occasional false alarms produced by many types of statistical fault-detection procedures. The BCP technique increases the probability that an automated monitoring system produces a correct decision regarding the presence or absence of a fault. Because occasional false alarms are an inevitable consequence of the SPRT, BSP, or any other statistically based fault-detection test, there is a need for a logical procedure to distinguish between true and false alarms. Heretofore, it has been common practice to make a fault decision on an ad hoc basis for example by following a multiple-observation voting strategy in which a signal is declared to be indicative of a fault if m of the last n observations produced a fault-detection alarm. The BCP technique was developed to obtain results more reliable than those afforded by a voting strategy. The BCP technique involves a test in which one applies Bayesian inference techniques to a series of one or more single-observation alarms produced by a fault-detection test. One considers the last n decisions generated by a fault-detection test in order to evaluate the conditional probability that a failure is indicated (see figure). Each new decision reached by a fault-detection test is treated as a new piece of evidence about the state of the monitored asset, and the conditional probability of failure for the system is updated on the basis of this new evidence. The conditional probability of failure is compared with a predefined limit. For a probability below the limit, the asset is declared to be healthy. For a probability above the limit, the asset is declared to be faulty.

Bickford, Randall L.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian Poroelastic Aquifer Characterization From InSAR Surface Deformation Data. Part I: Maximum A Posteriori Estimate

Characterizing the properties of groundwater aquifers is essential for predicting aquifer response and managing groundwater resources. In this work, we develop a high-dimensional scalable Bayesian inversion framework governed by a three-dimensional quasi-static linear poroelastic model to characterize lateral permeability variations in groundwater aquifers. In this work, we determine the maximum a posteriori (MAP) point of the posterior permeability distribution from centimeter-level surface deformation measurements obtained from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR). The scalability of our method to high parameter dimension is achieved through the use of adjoint-based derivatives, inexact Newton methods to determine the MAP point, and a Mat´ern class sparse prior precision operator. Together, these guarantee that the MAP point is found at a cost, measured in number of forward/adjoint poroelasticity solves, that is independent of the parameter dimension. We apply our methodology to a test case for a municipal well in Mesquite, Nevada, in which InSAR and GPS surface deformation data are available. We solve problems with up to 320,824 state variable degrees of freedom (DOFs) and 16,896 parameter DOFs. A consistent treatment of noise level is employed so that the aquifer characterization result does not depend on the pixel spacing of surface deformation data. Our results show that the use of InSAR data significantly improves characterization of lateral aquifer heterogeneity, and the InSAR-based aquifer characterization recovers complex lateral displacement trends observed by independent daily GPS measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Physics-based reward driven image analysis in microscopy

The rise of electron microscopy has expanded our ability to acquire nanometer and atomically resolved images of complex materials. The resulting vast datasets are typically analyzed by human operators, an intrinsically challenging process due to the multiple possible analysis steps and the corresponding need to build and optimize complex analysis workflows. We present a methodology based on the concept of a Reward Function coupled with Bayesian Optimization, to optimize image analysis workflows dynamically. The Reward Function is engineered to closely align with the experimental objectives and broader context and is quantifiable upon completion of the analysis. Here, cross-section, high-angle annular dark field (HAADF) images of ion-irradiated (Y, Dy)Ba 2 Cu 3 O 7–δ thin-films were used as a model system. The reward functions were formed based on the expected materials density and atomic spacings and used to drive multi-objective optimization of the classical Laplacian-of-Gaussian (LoG) method. These results can be benchmarked against the DCNN segmentation. This optimized LoG* compares favorably against DCNN in the presence of the additional noise. We further extend the reward function approach towards the identification of partially-disordered regions, creating a physics-driven reward function and action space of high-dimensional clustering. We pose that with correct definition, the reward function approach allows real-time optimization of complex analysis workflows at much higher speeds and lower computational costs than classical DCNN-based inference, ensuring the attainment of results that are both precise and aligned with the human-defined objectives.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗