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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Scaling and adiabaticity in a rapidly expanding gluon plasma

In this work we aim to gain qualitative insight on the far-from-equilibrium behavior of the gluon plasma produced in the early stages of a heavy-ion collision. It was recently discovered [1] that the distribution functions of quarks and gluons in QCD effective kinetic theory (EKT) exhibit self-similar “scaling” evolution with time-dependent scaling exponents long before those exponents reach their pre-hydrodynamic fixed-point values. In this work we shed light on the origin of this time-dependent scaling phenomenon in the small-angle approximation to the Boltzmann equation. We first solve the Boltzmann equation numerically and find that time-dependent scaling is a feature of this kinetic theory, and that it captures key qualitative features of the scaling of hard gluons in QCD EKT. We then proceed to study scaling analytically and semi-analytically in this equation. We find that an appropriate momentum rescaling allows the scaling distribution to be identified as the instantaneous ground state of the operator describing the evolution of the distribution function, and the approach to the scaling function is described by the decay of the excited states. That is to say, there is a frame in which the system evolves adiabatically. Furthermore, from the conditions for adiabaticity we can derive evolution equations for the time-dependent scaling exponents. In addition to the known free-streaming and BMSS fixed points, we identify a new “dilute” fixed point when the number density becomes small before hydrodynamization. Corrections to the fixed point exponents in the small-angle approximation agree quantitatively with those found previously in QCD EKT and arise from the evolution of the ratio between hard and soft scales.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A large area 100-channel PICOSEC Micromegas detector with time resolution at the 20 ps level

Abstract The PICOSEC Micromegas precise timing detector is based on a Cherenkov radiator coupled to a photocathode operating in a semi-transparent mode and a Micromegas amplification structure. The first proof of concept single-channel prototype was able to achieve a time resolution below 25 ps. One of the crucial aspects in the development of precise timing gaseous detectors applicable in high-energy physics experiments is a modular design that enables large area coverage. The first 19-channel multi-pad prototype with an active area of approximately 10 cm 2 suffered from degraded timing resolution due to the non-uniformity of the preamplification gap thickness. A new 100 cm 2 detector module with 100 channels based on a rigid hybrid ceramic/FR4 Micromegas board for improved drift gap uniformity was developed. Initial measurements with 80 GeV/c muons showed improvements in timing response over the measured pads and a time resolution below 25 ps. More recent measurements with a thinner drift gap detector module and newly developed RF pulse amplifiers show that the pad centre resolution can be enhanced to the level of 17 ps. This work will present the development of the detector from structural simulations, design, and beam test commissioning with a focus on the timing performance of a thinner drift gap detector module in combination with new electronics using an automated timing scan method.

Utrobicic, A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Distribution Development for Residual Inventory at the New York West Valley Site - 20400

The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) is the owner of the Western New York Nuclear Service Center (WNYNSC), a 1,351 ha site located approximately 48 km south of Buffalo, New York. In 1962, Nuclear Fuel Services, Inc. (NFS) entered into Agreements with the Atomic Energy Commission and New York State to construct the first commercial reprocessing plant of nuclear fuel in the United States. NFS, a private company, built and operated the spent fuel reprocessing plant and waste disposal facilities, processing 640 Mg of spent nuclear fuel from 1966 to 1972 under an Atomic Energy Commission license. Nuclear fuel reprocessing operations ended in 1972 and never reopened, leaving behind radioactive and chemical wastes. Operations led to contamination in a number of facilities and locations. Some of that contamination has migrated from waste disposal zones to other layers, formations, and features on and off the WNYNSC. Phase I decommissioning activities are ongoing and involve the removal of a number of areas and structures that have been associated with contamination. The purpose of this work is to outline the approach for characterizing contamination not associated with disposed wastes, contaminated structures, or specific releases. In this work, the term, residual radiological activity, is used to describe environmental contamination that exists subsequent to the completion of Phase I decommissioning activities, that is not associated with disposed wastes, contaminated structures, or specific releases. Contamination from the Site was quantified relative to data that characterize the concentrations of radionuclides that exist in background. Background concentrations are those present in the area but having no influence from Site related activities. The existence of residual radiological activity that is elevated relative to background has the potential to contribute to future risks to human health and the environment. As a consequence, the residual inventory information is used to inform the West Valley Probabilistic Performance Assessment (PPA) model to characterize potential future risks to human health and the environment. The centralized West Valley Data Management System (DMS) was the source of information for the data assembled in this analysis. The DMS is a fairly large compilation consisting of thousands of records from investigation studies, with sample dates ranging from 1990 to present. Samples from monitoring wells, boreholes, geoprobe studies, surface water, surface soils, storm water outfalls, ventilation stack filters, plant and animal tissues, and more are included in the DMS. Results are typically reported in units of activity per unit volume. For the purpose of the analyses presented here, all results were converted into consistent units of pCi per unit volume. Since 1990, data have been collected from various locations across the WNYNSC at different times with varying frequency over the course of several decades. As a consequence, a number of potential issues can arise with respect to the assembly of a dataset that is deemed adequate for the characterization of residual radiological activity. These issues were assessed and resolved to the extent possible through careful consideration of the properties of the distributions. The intent was to use data which characterize the current state of the Site. Radionuclides can be designated to one of several groups depending on their origin. In this work the groups considered were 1) Naturally Occurring Radioactive Material (NORM), 2) fallout, and 3) Other (including power plant, medical research, etc). This grouping is a useful construct with respect to the interpretation of fixed laboratory results. For example, NORM radionuclides that exist within a decay chain should have approximately equivalent distributions of concentrations if they are representative of background conditions. Insights such as these can be used as a check to identify sample results that need to be further investigated or omitted due to issues associated with reported results from fixed laboratory analyses. This type of analysis provided a foundation for the assessment of the adequacy of sample results for use in subsequent components of an assessment. The general process for the assessment of residual radiological contamination at the Site consists of a sequence of several steps. First, for each analyte, several statistical tests were performed to assess the weight of evidence against the null hypothesis that the mean of the distribution of concentrations was equal to zero. If the mean of the distribution of concentrations for a given radionuclide was not found to be greater than zero, then it was removed from consideration as a component of the residual radiological contamination. If there was significant evidence to reject the hypothesis of the mean being equal to zero, the second step was to compare the distribution of the data from the Site to that of the corresponding background. A suite of tests was used to compare the distributions of the site and background data. The results of these tests were collectively used to determine if site data are elevated relative to background. The third step was to develop distributions using a Bayesian framework to characterize the distribution of mean of the increment present above background for each of the radionuclides. The Bayesian model implemented allowed for the comparison of site-specific records to background concentrations to better approximate contamination attributed to the Site. A final screening step was employed for radionuclides that exceed background. This screening step compared 95% upper confidence limits (UCLs) from the increment distribution developed in the previous step to the risk screening levels. This approach yields a list of analytes that were determined to be elevated relative to background.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reaction Pathways and Energy Consumption in NH 3 Decomposition for H 2 Production by Low Temperature, Atmospheric Pressure Plasma

Pathways for NH 3 decomposition to N 2 and N 2 H 4 by atmospheric pressure nonthermal plasma are analyzed using a combination of molecular beam mass spectrometry measurements and zero-dimensional kinetic modeling. Experimental measurements show that NH 3 conversion and selectivity towards N 2 formation scale monotonically with the specific energy input into the plasma with ~ 100% selectivity to N 2 formation achieved at specific energy inputs above 0.12 J cm −3 (3.1 eV (molecule NH 3 ) −1 ). The kinetic model recovers these trends, although it underpredicts N 2 selectivity at low specific energy input. These discrepancies can be explained by the underestimation of reaction rate coefficients for reactions that consume N 2 H x species in collisions with H radicals and/or radial nonuniformities in power deposition, gas temperature, and species concentrations that are not represented by the plug flow approximation used in the model. The kinetic model shows that N 2 formation proceeds through N 2 H x decomposition pathways rather than NH x decomposition pathways in low temperature, atmospheric pressure plasma. Higher selectivity toward N 2 production can be achieved by operating at higher NH 3 conversion and with a higher gas temperature. Furthermore, the high energy cost of NH 3 decomposition by atmospheric pressure nonthermal plasma found in this work (25–50 eV (molecule NH 3 converted) −1 ; 17–33 eV (molecule H 2 formed) −1 ) is a result of the energy requirement for electron-impact dissociation of NH 3 and the significant re-formation of NH 3 by three-body recombination reactions between NH 2 and H.

Nonthermal plasma↗
DOE OSTI2020

Atmospheric ice nuclei concentration measurements over a high altitude-station in the Western Ghats, India

Mixed-phase and ice clouds play a significant role in modulating the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, and modeling studies suggest that inaccurate representation of ice nucleating particles (INP) is one of the factors, which have resulted in a deficiency in the prediction of cloud properties and hydrological cycle. We do not understand the ice nucleation mechanisms to represent the ice formation in the model, and therefore more INP measurements at various supercooled temperatures are needed. This study reports for the first time real-time INP concentration at a high altitude station in the Western Ghats region of India, and these results will be used to constrain the ice nucleation parameterizations in the model. The variation of INP for any particular cloud condition can have strong microphysical responses of mixed-phase precipitation formation processes. Also, to improve the representation of heterogeneous ice nucleation, INP measurements of various types of aerosols commonly observed over the Indian region are needed. This study presents, the INP concentrations and daily concentration of non-refractory chemical composition (organics, sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, and chloride), cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and aerosol size distribution. Spectrometer for Ice Nuclei (SPIN) was operated to measure INP concentration at the mountain site from August to December 2018. INP measurements were performed at three different temperatures (-25, -30, and - 34 °C) in the immersion freezing mode relevant for mixed-phase cloud conditions. The average INP concentrations approximately varied from 0.18 to 12.4 L-1, 0.39 to 24 L-1, 1.1 to 40.2 L-1 at -25, -30, and - 34 °C, respectively. These concentrations are within the concentrations reported in the literature from different regions across the globe. The air mass back trajectory analysis showed that continental air mass contains more INP compared to maritime air mass. The information on INP concentration and chemical characteristics of aerosol will help to improve heterogeneous ice nucleation parameterization in numerical models.

Kumar, Anil V.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Laboratory testing methods to evaluate the reliability of occupancy sensors for commercial building applications

The energy performance of commercial buildings is greatly influenced by occupants which are highly variable and among the most unpredictable components of a building's operation. While most building control systems use fixed, predetermined occupancy schedules, these fixed occupancy levels can be quite different from actual occupancy. This can cause unnecessary energy consumption, particularly from heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) and lighting systems which are responsible for approximately 60% of commercial buildings' energy use. The use of occupancy counting sensor systems integrated with building management system controls is one method that can be used to improve the energy-consuming performance of buildings. However, there is no standardized universal methodology and metrics to evaluate their reliability. The aim of this research is to develop a uniform evaluation methodology to assess the reliability of occupancy counting sensor systems in a controlled laboratory environment. The developed testing methodology includes both “typical” scenarios representing the occupancy scenarios of a typical commercial building, and “failure” testing scenarios which represent a range of potential scenarios that may impact a sensor system's reliability. These methods were then implemented in a case study to evaluate the performance of two novel occupancy counting sensor systems (i.e., door-centric, and camera-based). Results suggest that typical testing results can be used to compare the overall performance of the occupancy counting sensor systems; however, failure testing is also important to understand the weaknesses of the sensor system in order to select the suitable one for the intended use of the commercial building. In addition, the proposed methodology includes a modified confusion matrix which enables the ability to identify if failures are caused by over or under counting occupants and to what extent this occurs over the testing period.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Energy efficient supercritical water desalination using a high-temperature heat pump: A zero liquid discharge desalination

Supercritical water desalination (SCWD) is zero liquid discharge technology that can potentially control the solubility of different electrolytes. However, SCWD is an energy-intensive process and requires high-quality thermal heat (> 450 °C). This study proposes the integration of a high-temperature heat pump to reduce the SCWD energy requirement. The integrated system energy consumption improves by 36% for 3.5% feed concentration and 14% for 20% feed, and the distillate cost reduces by 15% and 10%. Another benefit of the proposed integration is the system can be operated using only electricity as a heat source, as is the case with commonly used high-recovery thermal desalination technology. The integrated SCWD-heat pump system shows superior performance compared to the commercially used brine concentrator and crystallizer system. It is approximately 20% more energy-efficient for 25% feed concentration and 8% cheaper. Hence, the integrated SCWD-heat pump has the potential to outperform the pre-existing high-recovery desalination technology.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Galaxy bispectrum in the spherical Fourier-Bessel basis

The bispectrum, the three-point correlation in Fourier space, is a crucial statistic for studying many effects targeted by the next-generation galaxy surveys, such as primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG) and general relativistic (GR) effects on large scales. In this work we develop a formalism for the bispectrum in the spherical Fourier-Bessel (SFB) basis—a natural basis for computing correlation functions on the curved sky, as it diagonalizes the Laplacian operator in spherical coordinates. Working in the SFB basis allows for line-of-sight effects such as redshift space distortions and GR to be accounted for exactly, i.e., without having to resort to perturbative expansions to go beyond the plane-parallel approximation. Only analytic results for the SFB bispectrum exist in the literature given the intensive computations needed. We numerically calculate the SFB bispectrum for the first time, enabled by a few techniques: We implement a template decomposition of the redshift-space kernel Z 2 into Legendre polynomials, and separately treat the PNG and velocity-divergence terms. We derive an identity to integrate a product of three spherical harmonics connected by a Dirac delta function as a simple sum and use it to investigate the limit of a homogeneous and isotropic Universe. Furthermore, we present a formalism for convolving the signal with separable window functions and use a toy spherically symmetric window to demonstrate the computation and give insights into the properties of the observed bispectrum signal. While our implementation remains computationally challenging, it is a step toward a feasible full extraction of information on large scales via a SFB bispectrum analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantum Gauge Networks: A New Kind of Tensor Network

Although tensor networks are powerful tools for simulating low-dimensional quantum physics, tensor network algorithms are very computationally costly in higher spatial dimensions. We introduce quantum gauge networks: a different kind of tensor network ansatz for which the computation cost of simulations does not explicitly increase for larger spatial dimensions. We take inspiration from the gauge picture of quantum dynamics, which consists of a local wavefunction for each patch of space, with neighboring patches related by unitary connections. A quantum gauge network (QGN) has a similar structure, except the Hilbert space dimensions of the local wavefunctions and connections are truncated. We describe how a QGN can be obtained from a generic wavefunction or matrix product state (MPS). All 2k-point correlation functions of any wavefunction for M many operators can be encoded exactly by a QGN with bond dimension O(M k ). In comparison, for just k = 1, an exponentially larger bond dimension of 2 M/6 is generically required for an MPS of qubits. We provide a simple QGN algorithm for approximate simulations of quantum dynamics in any spatial dimension. The approximate dynamics can achieve exact energy conservation for time-independent Hamiltonians, and spatial symmetries can also be maintained exactly. We benchmark the algorithm by simulating the quantum quench of fermionic Hamiltonians in up to three spatial dimensions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing Material Selection and Operational Conditions for XHV Systems: Lessons from AISI 1020 and 316L Comparative Studies

In this study, AISI 1020 low-carbon steel is investigated as a cost-effective alternative to SS316 stainless steel for reaching extreme high vacuum (XHV) conditions. After being baked at 400°C, a vacuum chamber made of the low-carbon steel material exhibited an outgassing rate approximately 2000 times smaller than a similar chamber made of stainless steel. Its activation energy for hydrogen diffusion (27 kJ/mol) is less than half that of stainless steel (60.3 kJ/mol), indicating more efficient hydrogen removal during bakeout. MolFlow+ simulations supported the experimental data and demonstrated the importance of system geometry optimization and minimizing stainless steel content for achieving optimal vacuum performance. AISI 1020's magnetic properties, typically considered disadvantageous for accelerator applications, could benefit spin-polarized electron sources by shielding photocathodes from stray fields while simultaneously providing improved vacuum through reduced outgassing. To optimize AISI 1020's performance in XHV systems, practical considerations include pre-baking protocols and careful system design to minimize stainless steel components.

Al-Allaq, Aiman H.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Required toroidal confinement for fusion and omnigeneity

Deuterium–tritium (DT) burning requires a long energy confinement times compared to collision times, so the particle distribution functions must approximate local Maxwellians. Non-equilibrium thermodynamics is applicable, which gives relations among transport, entropy production, the collision frequency, and the deviation from a Maxwellian. The distribution functions are given by the Fokker–Planck equation, which is an advection–diffusion equation. A large hyperbolic operator, the Vlasov operator with the particle trajectories as its characteristics, equals a small diffusive operator, the collision operator. The collisionless particle trajectories would be chaotic in stellarators without careful optimization. This would lead to rapid entropy production and transport—far beyond what is consistent with a self-sustaining DT burn. Omnigeneity is the weakest general condition that is consistent with a sufficiently small entropy production associated with the thermal particle trajectories. Omnigeneity requires that the contours of constant magnetic field strength be unbounded in at least one of the two angular coordinates in magnetic surfaces and that there be a symmetry in the field-strength wells along the field lines. Even in omnigenous plasmas, fluctuations due to microturbulence can produce chaotic particle trajectories and the gyro-Bohm transport is seen in many stellarator and tokamak experiments. The higher the plasma temperature above 10 keV, the smaller the transport must be compared to gyro-Bohm for a self-sustaining DT burn. The hot alphas of DT fusion heat the electrons. When the ion–electron equilibration time is long compared to the ion energy confinement time, a self-sustaining DT burn is not possible, which sets a limit on the electron temperature.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantum simulation of Lindbladian dynamics via repeated interactions

The Lindblad equation generalizes the Schrödinger equation to quantum systems that undergo dissipative dynamics. The quantum simulation of Lindbladian dynamics is therefore non-unitary, preventing a naive application of state-of-the-art quantum algorithms. Here, we make use of an approximate correspondence between Lindbladian dynamics and evolution based on repeated interaction (RI) CPTP maps to write down a Hamiltonian formulation of the Lindblad dynamics and derive a rigorous error bound on the master equation. Specifically, we show that the number of interactions needed to simulate the Liouvillian within error e scales in most physical scenarios as . This is significant because the error in the Lindbladian approximation to the dynamics is not explicitly bounded in existing quantum algorithms for open system simulations. We then provide quantum algorithms to simulate RI maps using an iterative qubitization approach and Trotter–Suzuki formulas, and specifically show that for iterative qubitization the number of operations needed to simulate the dynamics (for a fixed value of ?) scales as in the limit where a0 (the coefficient 1-norm for the system and bath Hamiltonians) asymptotically dominates over the corresponding factor for the interaction Hamiltonian, which is often the case in weak coupling. This scaling would appear to be optimal if the complexity of ? is not considered, which underscores the importance of considering the error in the Liouvillian that we reveal in this work.

Quantum Computing↗
DOE OSTI2022

Experimental Investigation of Gaseous Mixtures of Ethane, Methane, and Carbon Dioxide as an Alternative to Conventional Fuel in Spark Ignition Engines

This study investigates the viability and performance of certain synthetic fuels in spark ignition internal combustion engine based stationary power generation wherein the fuel comprises a mixture of methane and ethane in high dilutions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). The fuel of concern is a byproduct of a novel method for producing ethylene from ethane. The byproduct gas mixture has a concentration of approximately 41% CO 2 , 40% ethane, and 5% methane by weight along with other minor compounds. Varying mixtures of ethane and methane combined with between 42% and 46% by weight CO 2 were used to evaluate the viability and efficiency of this fuel to operate in existing internal combustion engines as a means of reducing emissions and increasing industrial process efficiency. A 13 hp gasoline generator was repurposed as a test stand by incorporating a modified fuel induction system and instrumentation for data collection. A gas metering and mixing system was installed to precisely control the mass flow of gases induced into the engine. Various instrumentations were installed to monitor in-cylinder pressure, temperature at various locations, emissions, and fuel and airflow rates. Varying fuel mixtures and loads were tested and compared to gasoline. It was found that under a high load, the mixed gas was able to generate comparable thermal efficiency and power to gasoline. But under no load or a part load condition the indicated thermal efficiency was found to be about 21% lower than that of gasoline. Further, the mixed gas also resulted in up to 50% reduction in CO and NOx emissions when compared to gasoline.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Real-time time-dependent density functional theory in Quantum Espresso and related codes

A set of subroutines that interact with an existing computer program, Quantum Espresso (QE), that takes a set of electronic orbitals from QE and propagates them forward in time in response to a number of perturbations. These perturbations include the motion of ions and a wide spectrum of applied electromagnetic fields (e.g., static magnetic fields, slowly-varying electric fields, x-rays, etc.). From the time evolution of the electronic orbitals comes time-varying values of physical observables like the electronic charge and current densities and atomic forces. These are further post-processed to yield properties of interest like stopping powers, conductivities, and the dynamic structure factor. The electronic orbitals are described in a plane wave basis and the equations of motion are carried out using a unitary or approximately unitary time propagation algorithm. Related work will include subroutines for interfacing this capability, as well as others that already exist within QE, with a fork of QE that is more extensible and modular.SAND2019-12611 M Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Baczewski, Andrew↗
DOE OSTI2022

W.A.T.E.R. Water Assessment & Technical Efficiency Report

Water use at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) has become a top priority due to New Mexico’s arid climate. LANL is taking steps to reduce its current water footprint and become a national leader in water efficiency. LANL used approximately 271 million gallons of water in FY 2021. Despite the large water footprint, the Lab has reduced its water use by 2% each year since a 2007 baseline. To continue this positive trend of water conservation, the water management team at Utilities & Infrastructure – Operations Support & Improvement (UI-OSI) studied water usage across campus and developed several water reduction strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Production Facility Simulations for Annular LEU Targets

Eden Radioisotopes, LLC is designing a new molybdenum-99 (Mo-99) production facility based on a TRIGA-sized reactor with a core composed of low enriched uranium (LEU) targets. Reactor production is designed to exceed U.S. demand for Mo-99 using the fission processes. The nominal operational power is 1.8MW (less than 2.0MW, to satisfy the “non-power” reactor requirement) and desired irradiation scenarios include 7, 14, or 21 days of the irradiation for each target element. Safety limits for reactor operating margins are associated with such physical phenomena as fission gas release, fuel swelling, and stress cracking. As shown in the literature, one of the critical parameters defining safety margins for metallic uranium fuel is swelling. In its turn the fuel operational temperature is the main parameter impacting the swelling rate. This report documents the results of consecutive studies of reactor criticality, fission energy depositions, and cooling conditions for the target. The maximum temperature calculated for the LEU targets allows us to choose appropriate modeling approximation of the swelling. All obtained results refer to the preliminary targets and core designs provided by Eden. A criticality analysis was performed, and the results are listed mainly to cross-check Eden’s safety report and assume maximal neutron field disturbance for maximal reactivity. A brief description of the metallic uranium swelling model is provided in the Appendix.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Trust-Enhancing Probabilistic Transfer Learning for Sparse and Noisy Data Environments

There is an increasing aspiration to utilize machine learning (ML) for various tasks of relevance to national security. ML models have thus far been mostly applied to tasks and domains that, while impactful, have sufficient volume of data. For predictive tasks of national security relevance, ML models of great capacity (ability to approximate nonlinear trends in input-output maps) are often needed to capture the complex underlying physics. However, scientific problems of relevance to national security are often accompanied by various sources of sparse and/or incomplete data, including experiments and simulations, across different regimes of operation, of varying degrees of fidelity, and include noise with different characteristics and/or intensity. State-of-the-art ML models, despite exhibiting superior performance on the task and domain they were trained on, may suffer detrimental loss in performance in such sparse data environments. This report summarizes the results of the Laboratory Directed Research and Development project entitled Trust-Enhancing Probabilistic Transfer Learning for Sparse and Noisy Data Environments. The objective of the project was to develop a new transfer learning (TL) framework that aims to adaptively blend the data across different sources in tackling one task of interest, resulting in enhanced trustworthiness of ML models for mission- and safety-critical systems. The proposed framework determines when it is worth applying TL and how much knowledge is to be transferred, despite uncontrollable uncertainties. The framework accomplishes this by leveraging concepts and techniques from the fields of Bayesian inverse modeling and uncertainty quantification, relying on strong mathematical foundations of probability and measure theories to devise new uncertainty-aware TL workflows.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Regional Emissions Analysis of Light-Duty Battery Electric Vehicles

Light-duty battery electric vehicles (BEVs) can reduce both greenhouse gas (GHG) and criteria air pollutant (CAPs) emissions, when compared to gasoline vehicles. However, research has found that while today’s BEVs typically reduce GHGs, they can increase certain CAPs, though with significant regional variability based on the electric grid mix. In addition, the environmental performance of electric and gasoline vehicles is not static, as key factors driving emissions have undergone significant changes recently and are expected to continue to evolve. In this study, we perform a cradle-to-grave life cycle analysis using state-level generation mix and vehicle operation emission data. We generated state-level emission factors using a projection from 2020 to 2050 for three light-duty vehicle types. We found that BEVs currently provide GHG benefits in nearly every state, with the median state’s benefit being between approximately 50% to 60% lower than gasoline counterparts. However, gasoline vehicles currently have lower total NOx, urban NOx, total PM 2.5 , and urban PM 2.5 in 33%; 15%; 70%; and 10% of states, respectively. BEV emissions will decrease in 2050 due to a cleaner grid, but the relative benefits when compared to gasoline vehicles do not change significantly, as gasoline vehicles are also improving over this time.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗