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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 937 records · Page 52
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

A passive model for the evolution of subgrid-scale instabilities in turbulent flow regimes

In this work, a zero-dimensional model for the development of turbulent mixing layers driven by Rayleigh–Taylor (RT) or Richtmyer–Meshkov (RM) instabilities is presented, for application in Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) simulations. The model approximates the behavior of the turbulent mixing layer at a passively advected tracer particle that sits on the material interface of interest in the simulation, and is used to provide initial conditions for the RANS model once the mixing layer width has developed to a size that may be resolved on the computational mesh. The model relies on approximations to the Besnard–Harlow–Rauenzahn (BHR) RANS closure equations and is thus consistent the turbulent development of the mixing layer, unlike previous models of this type which have focused on the early-time laminar development of RT or RM instabilities. These instabilities will often grow through an initially laminar state before developing into turbulence, and criteria for switching from an existing laminar model to the proposed turbulent model are considered. The proposed model reproduces the mixing layer development of RT and RM instabilities seen in mixed width resolving BHR RANS simulations to a reasonable degree of accuracy, and relaxes the need for the RANS simulation to resolve the mixed width as soon as the mixing layer becomes turbulent, which may be impractical in cases where the mixing layer grows through a wide range of scales.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2019

Validation of Wind Power Plant Modeling Approaches in Complex Terrain: Preprint

The effect of terrain on wind-plant aerodynamics is often neglected due to the complex dynamics that make up terrain-atmosphere-turbine interactions and the computational effort required to adequately resolve the relevant physics. In this work, a comprehensive set of measurements (from the Wind Forecast Improvement Project 2) and two distinct modeling approaches are used to investigate the effects of topography on plant performance. The first approach consists of high-fidelity large-eddy simulations conducted for a one- hour period on a terrain-resolving mesh, and producing unsteady, heterogeneous flow that is sensitive to the local topography. The second approach makes use of a steady-state engineering model that has been modified to account for terrain effects. In situ and remote- sensing measurements upstream of the wind plant are used to prescribe initial and boundary conditions to the models, while wind turbine power measurements are used to assess the ability of the different models to capture the effects of terrain on turbine wake dynamics and therefore power production. The full paper will quantify the degree to which our high-fidelity and engineering models are able to capture realistic wind plant aerodynamics in complex terrain, and through improved understanding of the underlying physics, inform our model development efforts.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Primordial nucleosynthesis with non-extensive statistics

The conventional Big Bang model successfully anticipates the initial abundances of 2 H(D), 3 He, and 4 He, aligning remarkably well with observational data. However, a persistent challenge arises in the case of 7 Li, where the predicted abundance exceeds observations by a factor of approximately three. Despite numerous efforts employing traditional nuclear physics to address this incongruity over the years, the enigma surrounding the lithium anomaly endures. In this context, we embark on an exploration of Big Bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) of light element abundances with the application of Tsallis non-extensive statistics. A comparison is made between the outcomes obtained by varying the non-extensive parameter q away from its unity value and both observational data and abundance predictions derived from the conventional big bang model. Here, a good agreement is found for the abundances of 4 He, 3 He and 7 Li, implying that the lithium abundance puzzle might be due to a subtle fine-tuning of the physics ingredients used to determine the BBN. However, the deuterium abundance deviates from observations.

Bertulani, Carlos A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impacts of PV Module Connector Failures on Cost and Performance of Utility Scale Photovoltaic Systems

The reliability, cost and performance of electrical connectors are a concern in all types of electrical systems, and demands on connectors used on photovoltaic (PV) systems include that connectors maintain electrical conductivity and physical strength, endure ultraviolet sunlight and high ambient temperature, and resist moisture and chemical intrusion over a very long (>25 year) performance period. Connector failures increase operation and maintenance (O&M) costs and reduce plant production, but connector failure can also cause safety and liability problems, which are of greater concern. This work results from a three-year collaboration between Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technology Office (SETO) under Agreements #39035 and #38531 "Connector Reliability Across the US Solar Sector." a multi-pronged investigation of PV connector health across the US (see https://energy.sandia.gov/pvconnectors/). This report presents derivation of a Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) that models failure modes and frequencies (how often failure occurs), estimates O&M costs and lost production associated with connector failures, and then calculates the effect that PV module connectors can have on Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). The model is informed with initial data from quantitative assessment of failure rates, root causes and mechanisms, in-situ diagnostics and data collection, lab-based forensics, and interviews with PV connector manufacturers and plant operators. SNL conducted site inspections at multiple utility-scale sites in different climates and subjected field samples of new, used, and degraded connectors to visual and electrical characterization. EPRI conducted metallurgical analysis of the pin and sleeve conductors to study failure-induced morphological and compositional changes. There is in general a shortage of statistically valid data, but data from PVROM database maintained by SNL was sufficient to ascertain failure rates and lost production as well as provide qualitative insight in its curated maintenance records. This report details the structure of the mathematical model but the sources of data to inform the model will continue to evolve. Analysis of a 100 MW PV plant is provided as an example of the use of the model, with results indicating that connectors are responsible for Annualized O&M Costs of $\$$71,933/year; Annualized Unit O&M Costs of $\$$0.72/kW/year; that a Reserve Account of $\$$187,220 should be available to fund repairs related to connectors; that connectors add $\$$1,494,004 to the Net Present Value of the O&M Costs (project life); and that O&M related to connectors adds about $\$$0.00088/kWh to the Levelized Cost of Energy. The impact of this model is to provide a tool to make the US solar sector more robust by quantifying and monetizing the reliability risks to utility-scale PV systems posed by poorly installed, mismatched and/or poorly designed and manufactured connectors. The TEA provides a model incorporating failure statistics, O&M cost data, and lost production into a single figure of merit, informing decisions and enabling practitioners to optimize cost and performance trade-offs. Stakeholders include connector manufacturers, system designers and equipment specifiers, standards bodies, installers and O&M providers, investors and insurance underwriters. This report supports continued growth of PV predicated on assurances that properly installed and maintained PV system connectors are safe and reliable. The project team is proposing future work including accelerated testing of connectors and expanding the approach taken here to other PV system components, such as TEA for rapid shut-down devices.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Terry Turbopump Expanded Operating Band Modeling and Simulation Efforts in Fiscal Year 2021 Extended Period of Performance (Final Report)

This report documents the progress made under the Terry Turbine Expanded Operating Band (TTEXOB) program's modeling and simulation (MODSIM) initiative at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL ). It describes the US Federal Fiscal Year 2021 (FY21) extended period-of-performance MODSIM work completed since the closure of FY20 with due reference to the Texas A&M University (TAMU) hybrid milestone 5/6 experimental program. This work, which falls under Milestone 7 of the program, provides a counterpart to the various experiments. The overall TTEXOB program and its milestone-based approach are described in the program's Summary Plan. Details of the individual milestone test plans can be found in the corresponding detailed test plan, e.g. the Milestone 3 and 4 Detailed Test Plan. SNL MODISM is conducted alongside experiments performed at TAMU, and SNL technical staff regularly consults with TAMU on the experimental program. In FY21, MELCOR code models and capabilities were exercised in two different contexts: experimental comparisons to the TAMU ZS-1 and GS-2, and stand-alone analyses of a station black-out (SBO) scenario in a generic boiling water reactor (BWR). Code to experiment comparisons met with fair success when turbine losses were well characterized as for the ZS-1 turbine. Both deterministic and Bayesian calibration processes were used to find a recommended turbine torque multiplier for ZS-1 type turbines. This process could be repeated for GS-2 type turbines if GS-2 losses were better understood. Stand-alone generic BWR SBO calculations revealed that three different modes of self-regulating turbopump behavior may be observed depending on certain modeling parameters and choices having to do with turbine nozzles. Aspects of this predicted behavior may have been observed in TAMU GS-2 experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Long-time integration of parametric evolution equations with physics-informed DeepONets

Ordinary and partial differential equations (ODEs/PDEs) play a paramount role in analyzing and simulating complex dynamic processes across all corners of science and engineering. In recent years machine learning tools are aspiring to introduce new effective ways of simulating such equations, however existing approaches are not able to reliably return stable and accurate predictions across long temporal horizons. We aim to address this challenge by introducing an effective framework for learning evolution operators that map random initial conditions to associated ODE/PDE solutions within a short time interval. Such operators can be parametrized by deep neural networks that are trained in an entirely self-supervised manner without requiring one to generate any paired input-output observations. Global long-time predictions across a range of initial conditions can be then obtained by iteratively evaluating the trained model using each prediction as the initial condition for the next evaluation step. Here, this introduces a new approach to temporal domain decomposition that is shown to be effective in performing accurate long-time simulations for a wide range of parametric ODE and PDE systems, from wave propagation, to reaction-diffusion dynamics and stiff chemical kinetics, introducing a new way of rapidly emulating non-equilibrium processes in science and engineering.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effects of Port Angle on Scavenging of an Opposed Piston Two-Stroke Engine

Opposed-piston 2-stroke (OP-2S) engines have the potential to achieve higher thermal efficiency than a typical diesel engine. However, the uniflow scavenging process is difficult to control over a wide range of speeds and loads. Scavenging performance is highly sensitive to pressure dynamics, port timings, and port design. This study proposes an analysis of the effects of port vane angle on the scavenging performance of an opposed-piston 2-stroke engine via simulation. A CFD model of a three-cylinder opposed-piston 2-stroke was developed and validated against experimental data collected by Achates Power Inc. One of the three cylinders was then isolated in a new model and simulated using cycle-averaged and cylinder-averaged initial/ boundary conditions. This isolated cylinder model was used to efficiently sweep port angles from 12 degrees to 29 degrees at different pressure ratios. Results indicate that scavenging performance is correlated with the bulk swirl ratio generated by these port angles. Scavenging performance is also sensitive to the pressure ratio across the engine. It was concluded that, for a given pressure ratio, the smallest port angle produces the best scavenging; however, previous work indicates lower bulk swirl ratio during combustion can have an impact on emissions formation.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Substantially positive contributions of new particle formation to cloud condensation nuclei under low supersaturation in China based on numerical model improvements

New particle formation (NPF) and subsequent particle growth are important sources of condensation nuclei (CN) and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). While many observations have shown positive contributions of NPF to CCN at low supersaturation, negative NPF contributions were often simulated in polluted environments. Using the observations in a coastal city of Qingdao, Beijing, and Gucheng in north China, we thoroughly evaluate the simulated number concentrations of CN and CCN using an NPF-explicit parameterization embedded in the WRF-Chem model. For CN, the initial simulation shows large biases of particle number concentrations at 10–40 and 40–100 nm. By adjusting the process of gas–particle partitioning, including the mass accommodation coefficient (MAC) of sulfuric acid, the phase changes in primary organic aerosol emissions, and the condensational amount of nitric acid, the improvement of the particle growth process yields substantially reduced overestimation of CN. Regarding CCN, secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formed from the oxidation of semi-volatile and intermediate-volatility organic compounds (S/IVOCs) is called SI-SOA, the yield of which is an important contributor. At default settings, the SI-SOA yield is too high without considering the differences in precursor oxidation rates. Lowering the SI-SOA yield under linear H 2 SO 4 nucleation scheme results in much-improved CCN simulations compared to observations. On the basis of the bias-corrected model, we find substantially positive contributions of NPF to CCN at low supersaturation (~ 0.2 %) over broad areas of China, primarily due to competing effects of increasing particle hygroscopicity, a result of reductions in SI-SOA amount, surpassing that of particle size decreases. The bias-corrected model is robustly applicable to other schemes, such as the quadratic H 2 SO 4 nucleation scheme, in terms of CN and CCN, though the dependence of CCN on SI-SOA yield is diminished likely due to changes in particle composition. This study highlights potentially much larger NPF contributions to CCN on a regional and even global basis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

SCANAIR-BISON BENCHMARK ON CIP0-1 RIA TEST

In the frame of their research programs on fuel safety, the French “Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire” (IRSN) and the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) have developed respectively SCANAIR and BISON codes to describe the thermo-mechanical behavior of irradiated fuel rods during Reactivity Initiated Accidents (RIA) in LWR. A RIA, characterized by a very rapid increase of reactivity and power in some rods of the reactor, can be schematically represented in two main phases. First, the energy deposition leads to a rapid rise of the fuel temperature which induces thermal swelling of the fuel pellets. During this phase, the Pellet Clad Mechanical Interaction (PCMI) leads to clad deformation and potentially to failure depending on fuel enthalpy increase and on the level of clad embrittlement. After the PCMI phase, the increase of clad temperature can lead to the boiling crisis of the water surrounding the rod. During the film boiling phase, the clad to coolant heat transfer becomes very low and the clad can reach high temperature (>700°C). Depending on the internal gas pressure, the ductile clad can undergo large deformation and possible failure. The RIA codes have to predict properly these two phases of the transient in order to be used, in particular, to assess current fuel safety criteria but also to be able to predict the behavior of upcoming fuel (such as accident tolerant fuel). In this paper, codes computation comparison against experimental data obtained on CIP0-1 test is done for the first phase of the transient, the PCMI phase, in order to point out the strengths and weaknesses of the codes. The CIP0-1 experiment was performed with UO2 high burnup fuel in the CABRI sodium loop facility, at 280°C and low pressure (~3 bars) without boiling crisis and no failure of the fuel rod. The initial state of the rod calculated by irradiation codes are compared with measurements before the transient. Then global rod thermal behavior during the CIP0-1 test is assessed with the sodium coolant temperature measurements. The rod mechanical behavior is analyzed with the fuel and clad elongation and the clad residual hoop strain. Finally comparison of the fission gas behavior between codes is performed and compared to the measurements of the fission gas released in the experiment.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Type I Shell Galaxies as a Test of Gravity Models

Shell galaxies are understood to form through the collision of a dwarf galaxy with an elliptical galaxy. Shell structures and kinematics have been noted to be independent tools to measure the gravitational potential of the shell galaxies. We compare theoretically the formation of shells in Type I shell galaxies in different gravity theories in this work because this is so far missing in the literature. We include Newtonian plus dark halo gravity, and two non-Newtonian gravity models, MOG and MOND, in identical initial systems. We investigate the effect of dynamical friction, which by slowing down the dwarf galaxy in the dark halo models limits the range of shell radii to low values. Under the same initial conditions, shells appear on a shorter timescale and over a smaller range of distances in the presence of dark matter than in the corresponding non-Newtonian gravity models. If galaxies are embedded in a dark matter halo, then the merging time may be too rapid to allow multi-generation shell formation as required by observed systems because of the large dynamical friction effect. Starting from the same initial state, the observation of small bright shells in the dark halo model should be accompanied by large faint ones, while for the case of MOG, the next shell generation patterns iterate with a specific time delay. The first shell generation pattern shows a degeneracy with the age of the shells and in different theories, but the relative distance of the shells and the shell expansion velocity can break this degeneracy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Charged-particle angular correlations in XeXe collisions at s N N = 5.44 TeV

Azimuthal correlations of charged particles in xenon-xenon collisions at a center-of-mass energy per nucleon pair of $\sqrt{s_{NN}}=5.44$ TeV are studied. The data were collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC with a total integrated luminosity of 3.42μb -1 . The collective motion of the system formed in the collision is parametrized by a Fourier expansion of the azimuthal particle density distribution. The azimuthal anisotropy coefficients $v_2$, $v_3$, and $v_4$ are obtained by the scalar-product, two-particle correlation, and multiparticle correlation methods. Within a hydrodynamic picture, these methods have different sensitivities to noncollective and fluctuation effects. The dependence of the Fourier coefficients on the size of the colliding system is explored by comparing the xenon-xenon results with equivalent lead-lead data. Model calculations that include initial-state fluctuation effects are also compared to the experimental results. The observed angular correlations provide new constraints on the hydrodynamic description of heavy ion collisions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Microscopic theory of angular momentum distributions across the full range of fission fragments

Modern nuclear theory provides qualitative insights into the fundamental mechanisms of nuclear fission and is increasingly capable of making reliable quantitative predictions. Most quantities of interest pertain to the primary fission fragments, whose subsequent decay is typically modeled using statistical reaction models. Consequently, a key objective of fission theory is to inform these models by predicting the initial conditions of the primary fragments. Here, in this work, we employ a framework that combines joint angular momentum and particle number projection with time-dependent configuration mixing to calculate the angular momentum distributions of primary fragments. Focusing on the benchmark cases of neutron-induced fission of 235 U and 239 Pu , we predict—for the first time—microscopic angular momentum distributions for all fragments observed in experiments. Our results reveal a pronounced sawtooth pattern in the average angular momentum as a function of fragment mass, consistent with recent measurements. Additionally, we observe substantial variations in angular momentum distributions along isobaric chains, indicating that commonly used empirical formulas lack sufficient accuracy. We also quantify a strong correlation between the angular momentum and the deformation of the fragments at scission, and a weak correlation in the magnitude of the angular momentum between fragment partners. The generated data will enable estimation of the impact of microscopic distributions on fission spectra, paving the way toward fission modeling based on microscopic inputs.

Physics - Nuclear physics and radiation physics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Gearbox bearing crack growth prognostics and uncertainty quantification with physics-informed machine learning

This paper introduces the extreme theory of functional connections (X-TFC), a physics-informed machine learning algorithm, and tailors it to estimate the remaining useful life (RUL) of wind turbine gearbox bearings experiencing fatigue crack growth. Unlike purely data-driven methods, X-TFC embeds a physics model, based on Head's theory in this work, into its training objective. The core of X-TFC is a random-projection single-layer neural network trained via an extreme learning machine, which requires only limited damage progression data and solves for output weights with a least-squares optimization algorithm. A composite loss function balances the network's fit to observed degradation data against the residuals of the governing crack growth differential equation, ensuring the learned damage trajectory remains physically plausible. When applied to a vibration-based health-index (HI) dataset measured during the growth of a crack on the inner ring of a high-speed bearing in a wind turbine gearbox (Bechhoefer and Dubé, 2020), X-TFC achieves near-zero prediction bias. Even when trained on only the first 10 %–20 % of the damage progression data, with sufficient physics weighting its predictions remain monotonic and smooth, delivering high prognosability and trendability. To quantify the epistemic uncertainty, we employ a Monte Carlo ensemble of independently initialized X-TFC models trained on noise-perturbed data, which yields confidence intervals around each RUL estimate and captures both model-parameter and epistemic uncertainty. In addition to a vibration-based HI, we demonstrate that the proposed framework can be directly applied to a supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data-based HI (Eftekhari Milani et al., 2026) measured during similar wind turbine gearbox bearing crack faults, preserving its accuracy and interpretability. This extension shows the versatility of our approach, which is applicable to bearings of multiple gearbox manufacturers, models, and ratings using only SCADA data. By integrating domain knowledge with machine learning, X-TFC offers a rapid, reliable tool for crack prognostics. Its adaptability to other bearing failure modes, such as pitch bearing ring cracks, positions X-TFC as a powerful enabler of data-driven, physics-informed asset management in the wind energy sector and beyond.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

GHOST (Grid Hardware Open Source Testbed) [SWR-18-32]

The software was developed for the purpose of Microgrid Controller Procurement where multiple Microgrid Controller vendors were competing to prove the best performance. Each microgrid controller was connected to Real-Time Simulator (Opal-RT) where the Real-Time model of microgrid was simulated. Microgrid controllers were able to control most of the assets in the model. To be able to fairly compare controller's performance each controller was evaluated using exactly the same model, with the same initial conditions and exactly the same test sequence. The microgrid evaluation test sequence lasted 100 minutes and consist of various grid disturbances to which a microgrid controller must respond. The microgrid and power system will experience multiple types of disturbances while performing dispatch functions. Many functions are tested in grid-connected and islanded modes such as unexpended failures of generators, energy storage trip events, and large load fluctuations. The test sequence focuses on fault scenarios that cause the highest short-circuit fault current contribution; force a swing bus or generator capable of being a swing bus offline; cause the most reconfigurations; and cause conflicting objectives for the microgrid controller. During the test sequence execution multiple datapoints are being recorded and stored. During data postprocessing key performance parameters are extracted allowing quantitative comparison of performance on multiple aspects including: resiliency, fuel utilization, grid interconnection, ancillary services and power quality and eventually after summing all key performance parameters by comparing the overall result. To be able to perform such testing multiple tools had to be developed included in this repository including: - Real time model of microgrid (Urban-Banshee, Remote-smaller model) - Test sequence configuration tools - Test execution real-time scripts - Post processing scripts - Human Machine Interface software

Koralewicz, Przemyslaw↗
DOE OSTI2019

SURF Model Resolution in xRage Code

A key issue for detonation wave simulations with a reactive burn model is the resolution needed for the reaction zone. The reaction-zone width is a physical length scale. For plastic-bonded explosives, it is small (on the order of 100 microns) but affects important detonation properties such as the detonation speed. Even with adaptive mesh refinement, a well resolved reaction zone is computationally expensive. Here we consider the trade-off between computational expense and accuracy when the resolution of the reaction zone is varied for simulations with the xRage code of PBX 9501 with the SURF burn model and of PBX 9502 with the SURFplus burn model. For assessing shock initiation, the numerical Pop plot is simulated, and for assessing propagating detonation waves, the cylinder test is used as a test problem. The reaction-zone resolution is varied from a cell size of 6.25 to 200 microns, and key properties of the solutions are compared. With 6 micron resolution, the numerical solution is near mesh converged and can be used to judge the accuracy of the coarser resolution simulations. For the propagating detonation wave in the cylinder test, at 200 microns the detonation speed is low by a couple of per cent. In terms of cpu-hours, the finest resolution is about a factor of 100 more expensive than the coarsest resolution.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2023

Numerical Study of Coupled Water and Vapor Flow, Heat Transfer, and Solute Transport in Variably-Saturated Deformable Soil During Freeze-Thaw Cycles

As climate change intensifies, soil water flow, heat transfer, and solute transport in the active, unfrozen zones within permafrost and seasonally frozen ground exhibit progressively more complex interactions that are difficult to elucidate with measurements alone. For example, frozen conditions impede water flow and solute transport in soil, while heat and mass transfer are significantly affected by high thermal inertia generated from water-ice phase change during the freeze-thaw cycle. To assist in understanding these subsurface processes, the current study presents a coupled two-dimensional model, which examines heat conduction-convection with water-ice phase change, soil water (liquid water and vapor) and groundwater flow, advective-dispersive solute transport with sorption, and soil deformation (frost heave and thaw settlement) in variably saturated soils subjected to freeze-thaw actions. This coupled multiphysics problem is numerically solved using the finite element method. The model's performance is first verified by comparison to a well-documented freezing test on unsaturated soil in a laboratory environment obtained from the literature. Then based on the proposed model, we quantify the impacts of freeze-thaw cycles on the distribution of temperature, water content, displacement history, and solute concentration in three distinct soil types, including sand, silt and clay textures. The influence of fluctuations in the air temperature, groundwater level, hydraulic conductivity, and solute transport parameters was also comparatively studied. The results show that (a) there is a significant bidirectional exchange between groundwater in the saturated zone and soil water in the vadose zone during freeze-thaw periods, and its magnitude increases with the combined influence of higher hydraulic conductivity and higher capillarity; (b) the rapid dewatering ahead of the freezing front causes local volume shrinkage within the non-frozen region when the freezing front propagates downward during the freezing stage and this volume shrinkage reduces the impact of frost heave due to ice formation. This gradually recovers when the thawed water replenishes the water loss zone during the thawing stage; and (c) the profiles of soil moisture, temperature, displacement, and solute concentration during freeze-thaw cycles are sensitive to the changes in amplitude and freeze-thaw period of the sinusoidal varying air temperature near the ground surface, hydraulic conductivity of soil texture, and the initial groundwater levels. Our modeling framework and simulation results highlight the need to account for coupled thermal-hydraulic-mechanical-chemical behaviors to better understand soil water and groundwater dynamics during freeze-thaw cycles and further help explain the observed changes in water cycles and landscape evolution in cold regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Vegetation Functional Properties Determine Uncertainty of Simulated Ecosystem Productivity: A Traceability Analysis in the East Asian Monsoon Region

Global and regional projections of climate change by Earth system models are limited by their uncertain estimates of terrestrial ecosystem productivity. At the middle to low latitudes, the East Asian monsoon region has higher productivity than forests in Europe–Africa and North America, but its estimate by current generation of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) has seldom been systematically evaluated. Here, we developed a traceability framework to evaluate the simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) by 15 TBMs in the East Asian monsoon region. The framework links GPP to net primary productivity, biomass, leaf area and back to GPP via incorporating multiple vegetation functional properties of carbon–use efficiency (CUE), vegetation C turnover time ( τ veg ), leaf C fraction (F leaf ), specific leaf area (SLA), and leaf area index (LAI)–level photosynthesis (P LAI ), respectively. We then applied a relative importance algorithm to attribute intermodel variation at each node. The results showed that large intermodel variation in GPP over 1901–2010 were mainly propagated from their different representation of vegetation functional properties. For example, SLA explained 77% of the intermodel difference in leaf area, which contributed 90% to the simulated GPP differences. In addition, the models simulated higher CUE (18.1 ± 21.3%), τ veg (18.2 ± 26.9%), and SLA (27.4±36.5%) than observations, leading to the overestimation of simulated GPP across the East Asian monsoon region. Furthermore, these results suggest the large uncertainty of current TBMs in simulating GPP is largely propagated from their poor representation of the vegetation functional properties and call for a better understanding of the covariations between plant functional properties in terrestrial ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Montana Community-Scale Solar Strategy Project (Final Technical Report)

Grid-tied solar photovoltaic (PV) development began gradually in Montana, initially taking root in the early 2000s, largely in the form of small residential systems, rarely larger than two kilowatts. Utility support for solar technology through public benefit funding triggered the installation of the state’s first solar PV installations on community-owned facilities including schools, libraries, fire stations and local government buildings in the mid-2000s. By 2016, solar PV installations totaled approximately 28 megawatts of installed capacity, generating less than 0.05% of electricity sold in Montana. Montana’s solar fleet in 2016 included 17 megawatts of utility-scale solar farms, and three shared solar projects developed by rural electric cooperatives that ranged from 25 to 50 kilowatts in size. However, with only 3,000 households utilizing solar PV, either through an on-site installation or participation in a shared solar project, the potential benefits and reach of solar technology was limited. The Montana Solar Community Project (MSCP) was developed by the Montana Energy Office (MEO) at the Department of Environmental Quality in order to implement a “community-scale” solar energy strategy for the state that would cost-effectively expand Montanans’ access to solar PV. This project defines three types of community-scale solar projects: shared solar, community-sited solar, and group purchasing programs. The MSCP project conducted research and stakeholder engagement that helped to inform and develop model community-scale initiatives and an overarching community-scale solar strategy for Montana. Specifically, the project included a solar market assessment, stakeholder meetings across Montana, development of a menu of community-scale solar options, a study of solar potential on schools, community solar market research, and community-scale project implementation support. MSCP activities were successful in implementing solar projects and supporting solar development in communities across Montana. Project activities realized 280 kW of newly installed solar from two solarize programs, a shared solar array at a rural electric cooperative, and a solar array atop a Bozeman high school. The community-scale project implementation support and Solar on Schools components of the project resulted directly in the analysis and design of nearly 2 MW of distributed solar systems across the state. The Solar on Schools analysis alone produced solar designs for 25 schools, representing 920.8 kW of solar potential. Many of the deliverables from this project provide guidance on future development of community-scale solar in Montana, and resulted in a number of important conclusions about community-scale solar in Montana. There is strong interest in community-scale solar in Montana, as noted during stakeholder meetings, in response to solar market research surveys, and as seen by applications for implementation support grants provided by MEO. Project activities also suggest that Montanans demonstrated a desire and need for more information about solar energy technology, solar financing options, and the state’s policy and regulatory framework. Additionally, the project found that schools will be key partners for future community-scale solar programs. In addition to being excellent hosts for solar arrays, schools have the opportunity to use the installation of a solar array to develop educational materials and curricula to educate Montana’s future leaders about these technologies, which can be shared and replicated across the state. Project activities laid a clear path forward for solar energy in Montana. Certain activities have concrete next steps. For example, numerous solar arrays were designed for schools and other public buildings around the state. Many of those designs will be used as soon as funding becomes available. Other activities have less developed next steps, though lay the foundation for future work. The solar market assessment, solar market research, and community stakeholder meetings are good examples. These documents can be used as stepping stones to increase renewable energy education, increase stakeholder outreach, and support communities as they seek to develop community-scale solar projects.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗