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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Synthesis and characterization of isotopically barcoded nickel, molybdenum, and tungsten taggants for intentional nuclear forensics

Intentional nuclear forensics is a concept wherein the deliberate addition of benign and persistent material signatures to nuclear material can be used to reduce the time between the discovery of material outside of regulatory control and determination of its original provenance. One concept within intentional nuclear forensics involves the use of perturbed stable isotopes to generate unique isotope ratio “barcodes” to encode information (e.g., production batch, location, etc.) and track material throughout the nuclear fuel cycle. Synthesis of taggant species of nickel (Ni), molybdenum (Mo), and tungsten (W) was undertaken via a double-spike mechanism, wherein two highly enriched isotopes of interest per elemental taggant were mixed to form an enriched “double-spike” which was subsequently isotopically diluted with bulk material having a natural isotopic composition. Two taggant species perturbing isotopic ratios, alpha (α) and beta (β), for each of Ni, Mo, and W were synthesized. Independent measurements of double spikes and alpha and beta taggant species agreed within uncertainty and are clearly resolvable from natural compositions. High-precision analyses were independently performed by MC-ICP-MS at two U.S. National Laboratories, with consensus values and uncertainties calculated for all samples. Observed isotopic perturbations in the final taggant species measured on the order of hundreds to thousands of permille (‰) with respect to natural for isotope ratios of interest (e.g., 60 Ni/ 58 Ni, 100 Mo/ 98 Mo, 186 W/ 183 W). Discrepancies between modeled and measured isotopic compositions were observed and are largely attributed to imprecise vendor assay values for starting materials. Using measured starting material compositions as inputs for the mixing model improved the level of agreement between predicted and measured α and β taggant isotope ratios. Overall, characterization of all taggant species demonstrates that this “barcode” concept could have viability for use in nuclear forensics. Finally, it is expected that for any two-isotope mixing array dozens of isotopic barcodes could be encoded into a material system and subsequently resolved utilizing modern mass spectrometric methods.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2020

CCCP and MENeaCS: (updated) weak-lensing masses for 100 galaxy clusters

ABSTRACT Large area surveys continue to increase the samples of galaxy clusters that can be used to constrain cosmological parameters, provided that the masses of the clusters are measured robustly. To improve the calibration of cluster masses using weak gravitational lensing we present new results for 48 clusters at 0.05 < z < 0.15, observed as part of the Multi Epoch Nearby Cluster Survey, and re-evaluate the mass estimates for 52 clusters from the Canadian Cluster Comparison Project. Updated high-fidelity photometric redshift catalogues of reference deep fields are used in combination with advances in shape measurements and state-of-the-art cluster simulations, yielding an average systematic uncertainty in the lensing signal below 5 per cent, similar to the statistical uncertainty for our cluster sample. We derive a scaling relation with Planck measurements for the full sample and find a bias in the Planck masses of 1 − b = 0.84 ± 0.04 (stat) ±0.05 (syst). We find no statistically significant trend of the mass bias with redshift or cluster mass, but find that different selections could change the bias by up to 0.07. We find a gas fraction of 0.139 ± 0.014 (stat) for eight relaxed clusters in our sample, which can also be used to infer cosmological parameters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

DESI DR2 results. I. Baryon acoustic oscillations from the Lyman alpha forest

We present the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements with the Lyman-𝛼 (Ly⁢𝛼) forest from the second data release (DR2) of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey. Our BAO measurements include both the autocorrelation of the Ly⁢𝛼 forest absorption observed in the spectra of high-redshift quasars and the cross-correlation of the absorption with the quasar positions. The total sample size is approximately a factor of 2 larger than the DR1 dataset, with forest measurements in over 820,000 quasar spectra and the positions of over 1.2 million quasars. We describe several significant improvements to our analysis in this paper, and two supporting papers describe improvements to the synthetic datasets that we use for validation and how we identify damped Ly⁢𝛼 absorbers. Our main result is that we have measured the BAO scale with a statistical precision of 1.1% along and 1.3% transverse to the line of sight, for a combined precision of 0.65% on the isotropic BAO scale at 𝑧 eff =2.33. This excellent precision, combined with recent theoretical studies of the BAO shift due to nonlinear growth, motivated us to include a systematic error term in Ly⁢𝛼 BAO analysis for the first time. We measure the ratios 𝐷 𝐻 ⁡(𝑧 eff )/𝑟 𝑑 = 8.632 ± 0.098 ± 0.026 and 𝐷 𝑀 ⁡(𝑧 eff )/𝑟 𝑑 = 38.99 ± 0.52 ± 0.12, where 𝐷 𝐻 = 𝑐/𝐻⁡(𝑧) is the Hubble distance, 𝐷 𝑀 is the transverse comoving distance, 𝑟 𝑑 is the sound horizon at the drag epoch, and we quote both the statistical and the theoretical systematic uncertainty. The companion paper presents the BAO measurements at lower redshifts from the same dataset and the cosmological interpretation.

baryon acoustic oscillations↗
DOE OSTI2025

DESI DR2 Results I: Baryon Acoustic Oscillations from the Lyman Alpha Forest

We present the Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) measurements with the Lyman-alpha (LyA) forest from the second data release (DR2) of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey. Our BAO measurements include both the auto-correlation of the LyA forest absorption observed in the spectra of high-redshift quasars and the cross-correlation of the absorption with the quasar positions. The total sample size is approximately a factor of two larger than the DR1 dataset, with forest measurements in over 820,000 quasar spectra and the positions of over 1.2 million quasars. We describe several significant improvements to our analysis in this paper, and two supporting papers describe improvements to the synthetic datasets that we use for validation and how we identify damped LyA absorbers. Our main result is that we have measured the BAO scale with a statistical precision of 1.1% along and 1.3% transverse to the line of sight, for a combined precision of 0.65% on the isotropic BAO scale at $z_{eff} = 2.33$. This excellent precision, combined with recent theoretical studies of the BAO shift due to nonlinear growth, motivated us to include a systematic error term in LyA BAO analysis for the first time. We measure the ratios $D_H(z_{eff})/r_d = 8.632 \pm 0.098 \pm 0.026$ and $D_M(z_{eff})/r_d = 38.99 \pm 0.52 \pm 0.12$, where $D_H = c/H(z)$ is the Hubble distance, $D_M$ is the transverse comoving distance, $r_d$ is the sound horizon at the drag epoch, and we quote both the statistical and the theoretical systematic uncertainty. The companion paper presents the BAO measurements at lower redshifts from the same dataset and the cosmological interpretation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of Polarimetry Data with Angular Uncertainties

For a track based polarimeter, such as the Imaging X-ray Polarimetry Explorer (IXPE), the sensitivity to polarization depends on the modulation factor, which is a strong function of energy. In previous work, a likelihood method was developed that would account for this variation in order to estimate the minimum detectable polarization (MDP). That method essentially required that the position angles of individual events should be known precisely. In a separate work, however, it was shown that using a machine-learning method for measuring event tracks can generate track angle uncertainties, which can be used in the analysis. Here, the maximum likelihood method is used as a basis for revising the estimate of the MDP in a general way that can include uncertainties in event track position angles. The resultant MDP depends solely upon the distribution of track angle uncertainties present in the input data. Due to the physics of the IXPE detectors, it is possible to derive a simple relationship between these angular uncertainties and the energy-dependent modulation function as a step in the process.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prompt and non-prompt J/$ψ$ production at midrapidity in Pb–Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{\textrm{NN}}}$ = 5.02 TeV

The transverse momentum (p T ) and centrality dependence of the nuclear modif cation factor R AA of prompt and non-prompt J/ψ, the latter originating from the weak decays of beauty hadrons, have been measured by the ALICE collaboration in Pb–Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{\textrm{NN}}}$ = 5.02 TeV. The measurements are carried out through the e + e - decay channel at midrapidity (|y| < 0.9) in the transverse momentum region 1.5 < p T < 10 GeV/c. Both prompt and non-prompt J/ψ measurements indicate a significant suppression for p T > 5 GeV/c, which becomes stronger with increasing collision centrality. The results are consistent with similar LHC measurements in the overlapping p T intervals, and cover the kinematic region down to p T = 1.5 GeV/c at midrapidity, not accessible by other LHC experiments. The suppression of prompt J/ψ in central and semicentral collisions exhibits a decreasing trend towards lower transverse momentum, described within uncertainties by models implementing J/ψ production from recombination of $c$ and $\overline{c}$ quarks produced independently in different partonic scatterings. At high transverse momentum, transport models including quarkonium dissociation are able to describe the suppression for prompt J/ψ. For non-prompt J/ψ, the suppression predicted by models including both collisional and radiative processes for the computation of the beauty-quark energy loss inside the quark-gluon plasma is consistent with measurements within uncertainties.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A functional global sensitivity measure and efficient reliability sensitivity analysis with respect to statistical parameters

Sensitivity analysis and reliability assessment are two important aspects of structural and system safety. Epistemic uncertainty with respect to probabilistic model of input parameters due to lack of knowledge is present in many scarce-data applications and complicates the characterization of uncertainty in model response. In this article, we present two importance measures to evaluate the impact of distribution parameters on the probability distribution function (PDF) of the output and the failure probability. The epistemic uncertainty associated with the distribution parameters is modeled as random variables. Additionally, a modified extended polynomial chaos expansion (MEPCE) approach is introduced in which aleatory and epistemic random variables are modeled and propagated simultaneously while allowing the separate assessment for any single epistemic variable. A MEPCE-based kernel density estimation (KDE) construction provides a composite map from each epistemic variable to the response PDF. The functional global sensitivity index of the PDF with respect to the distribution parameters is thus derived, as a function of output, which is both more informative and more efficient than standard scalar sensitivity measures. Reliability sensitivity indices can be readily evaluated by integrating the global sensitivity index function over the failure zone. Three illustrative examples are used to demonstrate the proposed methodology.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantum-Inspired Bayesian Sampling for Uncertainty Quantification and Machine Learning (Final Technical Report)

With increasing simulation and measurement data, machine learning and artificial intelligence have been widely used in computational decision-making of complex engineering systems. The resulting tools, such as uncertainty quantification solvers, reinforcement learning, and physics-informed machine learning, have achieved great success in critical DOE tasks such as material discovery and design, energy system modeling and control, and numerical weather and climate prediction. A core topic in scientific machine learning and artificial intelligence is Bayesian inference: given an observed data set, people want to estimate the posterior distribution of a (possibly large) number of hidden parameters. Due to the flexibility and weak assumptions, Bayesian sampling has been the mainstream Bayesian inference solvers despite the rapid progress of approximate Bayesian inference. Classical Bayesian sampling methods such as Markov-chain Monte Carlo suffer from a low-acceptance rate due to the random walk nature, therefore state-of-the-art techniques use Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and its variants to efficiently draw posterior samples in a high dimension. The key idea of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and its variants is to simulate the Hamiltonian dynamics of a classical particle with a fixed mass, and their performance significantly degrades when the posterior distribution is highly spiky or has multiple modes. Leveraging the idea of quantum physics, this project has investigated new theory, algorithms and applications of Bayesian inference (especially Bayesian sampling). The main results include: (1) novel quantum-inspired Bayesian sampling methods that can lead to better accuracy for challenging multi-modal or spiky distributions, (2) more scalable machine learning framework leveraging tensor-compressed Bayesian inference, and (3) Bayesian and sampling approaches for verifying the robustness of continuous and binary neural networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Observation of $t\overline{t}$ production in the lepton+jets and dilepton channels in p+Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{\textrm{NN}}}$ = 8.16 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper reports the observation of top-quark pair production in proton-lead collisions in the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider. The measurement is performed using 165 nb -1 of p+Pb data collected at $\sqrt{^sNN}$ = 8.16 TeV in 2016. Events are categorised in two analysis channels, consisting of either events with exactly one lepton (electron or muon) and at least four jets, or events with two opposite-charge leptons and at least two jets. In both channels at least one b-tagged jet is also required. Top-quark pair production is observed with a significance over five standard deviations in each channel. The top-quark pair production cross-section is measured to be σ $t\overline{t}$ =58.1 ± 2.0(stat.)$^{+4.8}_{-4.4}$(syst.) nb, with a total uncertainty of 9%. In addition, the nuclear modification factor is measured to be R pA = 1.090 ± 0.039(stat.)$^{+0.094}_{-0.087}$(syst.). The measurements are found to be in good agreement with theory predictions involving nuclear parton distribution functions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Search for Electron Neutrino Anomalies with the MicroBooNE Detector

The Micro Booster Neutrino Experiment (MicroBooNE) is a Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) located in the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. The experiment was devised to investigate a series of observed anomalies concerning short-baseline neutrino oscillation physics. The LArTPC technology enables the experiment to study neutrino-argon scattering with unprecedented detail.This thesis presents a cosmic-ray characterisation and rate measurement. The understanding of cosmic activity in the detector - MicroBooNE's dominant background - is then used to develop cosmic rejection tools. A flavour-agnostic neutrino selection is constructed, which forms the cornerstone of this and further analyses. Inclusive muon and electron charged-current neutrino interaction selections with unprecedented purity and efficiency are presented.The first fully-automated characterisation of electron neutrinos in a muon neutrino beam with the LArTPC detector technology is performed. The Booster Neutrino Beam has an energy peaking around 1GeV and an intrinsic electron content of approximately 0.5%. The analysis investigates electrons produced in charged-current electron neutrino interactions. The kinematics of the electrons are measured along with comparisons to simulation. Most of the systematic uncertainties are constrained using a data-driven sample of charged-current muon neutrino events. The measurement of electron neutrinos originating from the Booster Neutrino Beam is a crucial component towards understanding the nature of the observed excess of low-energy electromagnetic-like events at its predecessor, MiniBooNE.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Charged-Current Electron Neutrino Measurement with the MicroBooNE Detector

MicroBooNE is the first phase of Fermilab’s Short Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) programme.This proceeding outlays the first characterisation of electron neutrinos in a muon neutrino beam with the LArTPC detector technology. The Booster Neutrino Beam has an energy peaking around 1GeV and an electron content of approximately 0.5%. The analysis investigates electrons produced in charged-current electron neutrino interactions. The kinematics of the electrons are measured along with comparisons to simulation. Most of the systematic uncertainties are constrained using a data-driven sample of charged-current muon neutrino events. The measurement of electron neutrinos originating from the Booster Neutrino Beam is a crucial component to understand the nature of the observed excess of low energy electromagnetic-like events at MiniBooNE.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

EDGE2D-EIRENE and ERO2.0 predictions of nitrogen molecular break-up and transport in the divertor of JET low-confinement mode plasmas

EDGE2D-EIRENE simulations of nitrogen-seeded partially detached JET L-mode plasmas show that the divertor N I to N V radiation distributions are highly sensitive to the upstream electron density, and less sensitive to changes in the assumed cross-field particle diffusivity for nitrogen ions. The EDGE2D-EIRENE simulations reproduce the peak intensities of N I to N V as measured by vertically viewing divertor filterscopes to within 50 % for a narrow range of the upstream electron density within the experimental uncertainties, while the predicted profiles are narrower than the measured ones. Including nitrogen atoms only in the ERO2.0 simulations implies lower N III and N IV peak intensities by one and two thirds, respectively, compared to EDGE2D-EIRENE. If nitrogen is assumed to recycle exclusively as molecules instead of atoms, ERO2.0 predicts that the N III and N IV intensities in the divertor increase by up to a factor of two and that the time-averaged, volume-integrated number of N 5+ to N 7+ ions in the plasma also increases by approximately a factor of 2.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

TEDS Test Plan for Performance Characterization of Packed-bed Thermal Energy Storage Unit

This report proposes a set of test plans for performance measurement and characterization of the packed-bed thermal energy storage (TES) unit for TEDS. The main goals of this test plan are three-fold: (i) support the high-fidelity data measurement for TEDS, (ii) characterize thermal and structural performance of the TEDS TES unit, and (iii) produce high quality validation-oriented data. To achieve the goals, it is first suggested to revisit the instrument calibration and data sampling protocols applied during the startup and commissioning tests of TEDS, based on the observation from the recent CFD validation study using the TEDS TES operational data. The uncertainty quantification of the thermal and hydraulic measurements is also suggested. Lastly, test matrices are provided for charge, discharge, and standby modes of the packed-bed TES unit, respectively, to characterize the thermal and structural performances during the envisioned TEDS operations.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurements of the thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect with ACT and DESI luminous red galaxies

Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) photons scatter off the free-electron gas in galaxies and clusters, allowing us to use the CMB as a backlight to probe the gas in and around low-redshift galaxies. The thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect, sourced by hot electrons in high-density environments, measures the thermal pressure of the target objects, shedding light on halo thermodynamics and galaxy formation, and providing a path toward understanding the baryon distribution around cosmic structures. We use a combination of high-resolution CMB maps from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope and photometric luminous red galaxy catalogs from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument to measure the thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich signal in four redshift bins from 𝑧 = 0.4 to 𝑧 = 1.2, with a combined detection significance of 19⁢𝜎 when stacking on the fiducial CMB Compton-𝑦 map. We discuss possible sources of contamination, finding that residual dust emission associated with the target galaxies is important and limits current analyses. We discuss several mitigation strategies and quantify the residual modeling uncertainty. Furthermore, this work complements closely related measurements of the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich and weak lensing of the same galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Measurement of the muon anomalous precession frequency at the Muon g − 2 Experiment at Fermilab

The anomalous magnetic moment of the muon, $a_\mu = \frac{g-2}{2}$ is the fractional deviation of the muon $g$-factor from the value of 2. It emerges as the cumulative effect of the virtual particles participating in the muon interaction with a magnetic field via quantum loop corrections. Its value encodes all the possible interactions between the virtual particles and, for this reason, represents an important test of the Standard Model (SM). In particular, any deviation from the SM theoretical evaluation could be due to new physics contributions. The new Muon $g-2$ (E989) Experiment at Fermilab is currently operating to repeat and improve the previous E821 experiment at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), aiming to reduce the experimental error by a factor of 4 to the final accuracy of 140 parts per billion (ppb). On April 7th, 2021, the E989 collaboration published the first result based on the first year of data taking (Run-1), measuring $a_\mu = 0.001~165~920~40(54)$ with a precision of 460 ppb. The measured value is consistent with the BNL measurement and strengthens the long-standing tension with the data-driven SM prediction to a combined discrepancy of 4.2$\sigma$. On the theory side, however, new efforts involving lattice-QCD techniques are starting to question the current consensus on the theoretical prediction, demanding new improvements on both the experimental and theoretical sides. The E989 collaboration is now finalizing the analysis of Run-2 and Run-3 data and a new publication is expected in the first half of 2023 with a combined statistical uncertainty of 200 ppb. The anomalous magnetic moment $a_\mu$ is measured as the ratio between the muon spin anomalous precession frequency, $\omega_a$, and the average magnetic field experienced by the muons as they circulate in the storage ring. This thesis presents a precession frequency analysis of the Run-1 data and an evaluation of the related systematic uncertainties. A new positron reconstruction developed for the analysis of the subsequent data-taking periods, aiming to reduce some of the major systematic uncertainties of the $\omega_a$ measurement, is presented. The author's involvement in the production of the Run-2/5 data and in the precise calibration of the detectors is discussed. Finally, the complete Run-1 $a_\mu$ result is presented.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Systematic Uncertainties in the NOvA \nu_\mu-Disappearance Analysis

As the NOvA long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment takes more data, systematic uncertainty begins to more heavily impact the oscillation analyses. The largest effects are calibration on calorimetric energy, detector modeling on muon energy scale, and near-detector pileup on normalization of the far-detector expectation. Cross-section systematics will be discussed in another poster. Detailed studies have justified previous systematics as too conservative and suggested smaller values. Focused study of detector modeling using dE/dx and external measurements constrain the calibration and energy scale uncertainties. A novel technique is used to assess the impact of activity from neutrino activity piling up over signal, where a simulated neutrino is overlaid into both data and simulation. The difference in efficiency of selecting that single neutrino among data and simulated spills then dominates the normalization systematic.

Alion, Tyler [Sussex U.]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Measurement of muon antineutrino charged current - 0 meson scattering, using the NOvA Near Detector

Antineutrino interaction cross sections are, at present, poorly constrained, particularly regarding the role of multi-nucleon processes such as 2-particle 2-hole (2p2h) interactions. The associated crosssection systematic uncertainties represent a significant challenge for precision oscillation measurements, especially for the next generation of neutrino experiments such as DUNE. We present a new measurement of the muon antineutrino charged-current cross section without mesons in the final state, using the high-statistics data set of the NOvA Near Detector. The analysis employs a cut-based selection enhanced by machine learning techniques to isolate a high-purity sample dominated by quasielastic (QE) and 2p2h interactions. We present the cross section as a function of the kinetic energy and scattering angle of the outgoing muon. We also present measurements of more model-dependent kinematic variables such as the neutrino energy and momentum transfer, to better probe the underlying nuclear physics. The results are compared against various neutrino event generators to test the robustness of current interaction models.

Vockerodt, Kevin John [Ohio State U.; Queen Mary, ↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Overview of Wind Energy Production Prediction Bias, Losses, and Uncertainties

The financing of a wind farm directly relates to the preconstruction energy yield assessments which estimate the annual energy production for the farm. The accuracy and the precision of the preconstruction energy estimates can dictate the profitability of the wind project. Historically, the wind industry tended to overpredict the annual energy production of wind farms. Experts have been dedicated to eliminating such prediction errors in the past decade, and recently the industry is recording near-zero average energy prediction bias. Herein, we present an overview of the energy yield assessment errors across the global wind energy industry. We identify a long-term trend of reduction in the overprediction bias, whereas the uncertainty associated with the prediction error is prominent. We also summarize the recent advancements of the wind resource assessment process that justify the bias reduction, including the improvements in modeling and measurement techniques. Additionally, because the energy losses and uncertainties substantially influence the prediction error, we document and examine the estimated and observed loss and uncertainty values from the literature, according to the proposed framework in the International Electrotechnical Commission 61400-15 wind resource assessment standard. From our findings, we highlight the opportunities for the industry to move forward, such as the validation and reduction of prediction uncertainty, and the prevention of energy losses caused by wake effect and environmental events. Overall, this study provides a summary on how the wind energy industry has been quantifying and reducing prediction errors, energy losses, and production uncertainties. Finally, for this work to be as reproducible as possible, we include all of the data used in the analysis in appendices to the manuscript.

literature review↗