Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “MODEL VALIDATION”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 937 records · Page 52

Revenue prediction for integrated renewable energy and energy storage system using machine learning techniques

Revenue estimation for integrated renewable energy and energy storage systems is important to support plant owners or operators’ decisions in battery sizing selection that leads to maximized financial performances. A common approach to optimizing revenues of a hybrid hydro and energy storage system is using mixed-integer linear programming (MILP). Although MILP models can provide accurate production cost estimations, they are typically very computationally expensive. To provide a fast yet accurate first-step information to hydropower plant owners or operators who consider integrating energy storage systems, we propose an innovative approach to predicting optimal revenues of an integrated energy generation and storage system. In this study, we examined the performance of two prediction techniques: Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) and machine learning (ML) models developed based on artificial neural networks (ANN). Predictive equations and models are generated based on optimized solutions from a market participation optimization model, the Conventional Hydropower Energy and Environmental Resource System (CHEERS) model. The two predicting techniques reduce the computational time to evaluate annual revenue for one set of battery configurations from 3 h to 1 to 4 min per run while also being implementable with significantly less data. The model validation prediction errors of developed GAMs and ML models are generally below 5%; for model testing predictions, the ML models consistently outperform the regression equations in terms of root mean square errors. This new approach allows plant owners, operators, or potential investors to quickly access multiple battery configurations under different energy generation and market scenarios. This new revenue prediction method will therefore help reduce the barriers, and thereby promoting the deployment of battery hybridization with existing renewable energy sources.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

A validation of a simple model for the calculation of the ionization energies in X-ray laser-cluster interactions

The outer-ionization of an electron from a cluster is an unambiguous quantity, while the inner-ionization threshold is not, resulting in different microscopic quantum-classical hybrid models used in laser-cluster interactions. A simple local ionization threshold model for the change in the ionization energy is proposed and examined, for atoms and ions, at distances in between the initial configuration of the cluster to well into the cluster's disintegration. This model is compared with a full Hartree-Fock energy calculation which accounts for the electron correlation effects using the coupled cluster method with single and double excitations with perturbative triples (CCSD(T)). Good agreement is found between the two lending a strong theoretical support to works which rely on such models for the final and transient properties of the laser-cluster interaction.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Laser-Controlled Torsions: Four-Dimensional Theory and the Validity of Reduced Dimensionality Models

A multitude of possible applications along with unique coherence, chirality, and symmetry properties makes the control of molecular torsion with moderately strong, nonresonant laser pulses a fascinating subject. A description of combined rotation and torsion requires at least four angular degrees of freedom, which is challenging for the majority of systems. Lower-dimensional models have been proposed but also questioned. Here, we develop a four-dimensional model for the coupled rotational-torsional motions of molecules consisting of two identical moieties. By comparing four-dimensional calculations with a two-dimensional model, we define conditions under which the lower-dimensional model is valid. In particular, we point to the crucial role of coordinate dependence of the polarizability tensor. Our results do not agree with those of previous four-dimensional calculations but support the conclusions of recent experiments.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DWT-Based Aggregated Load Modeling and Evaluation for Quasi-Static Time-Series Simulation on Distribution Feeders

This paper presents an extension of a previously reported discrete wavelet transform (DWT) based load modeling methodology which targets at modeling time-series load profiles to enable the more effective and realistic quasi-static time-series simulation of distribution feeders. The time-series load model is composed of two major parts: 1) The low-resolution field-measured load data which usually have a resolution of 30 or 15 min., 2) The high-resolution load variability model data extracted from the established variability database which can have resolution up to 1 sec. A load aggregation methodology is developed to aggregate the load profiles so that load profiles at different transformer ratings can be effectively modeled. Validation, evaluation, and analysis of the developed load modeling approach has been performed on the IEEE-123 feeder and an actual utility feeder from California. The analysis completed on the two feeders have demonstrated the effectiveness and revealed the value of the developed model for distribution feeder quasi-static time-series simulation at high temporal resolution.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Test-Based Modeling of Photovoltaic Inverter Impact on Distribution Systems

Distributed PV has important effects on overcurrent, overvoltage and islanding protection. These effects are more difficult to analyze because the faulted behavior of PV inverters is less well understood than for rotating machines. Full transient models of the inverter can be accurate, but that approach requires inverter design details and simulation software that doesn’t easily interoperate with utility protection system software. Further, anomalous model behaviors often emerge at different grid conditions, and these are difficult to fix in a proprietary model. Testing provides another approach to characterize inverters, validate models or answer questions of application. This earlier work found major impacts from the inverter design, firmware, operating point and balance-of-system components. Our objective is to characterize PV inverters from black-box testing, leading to standard test reports that could provide parameter sets for widely-implemented models in software tools. The tool vendors can then develop standard inverter models, as they did for rotating machines and exciters. Besides fully detailed transient models, inverters can be represented with steady-state current sources, dynamically controlled current sources or non-linear frequency-dependent black boxes. Type-test data could support the last three kinds of model. Short circuit and sag tests would encompass the basic fault types, reporting the maximum transient and rms currents over all power levels and points-on-wave within four time ranges : 1) 0 to 1 cycles, for close and latch consideration 2) 1 to 4 cycles, for equipment withstand 3) 4 to 30 cycles, for interrupt ratings 4) 30 cycles and beyond, for backup protection analysis Open circuit tests would vary output power and power factor, and report the maximum rms voltage from 1 to 10 cycles after the event. Without models, the type-test data could also provide upper limits on the expected overvoltages and overcurrents.

Wieserman, Laura M.↗

Background-Oriented Schlieren Velocimetry of Helium Coolant Flow in Additively Manufactured Channels

High-pressure helium gas cooling is an attractive solution for thermal management of the fusion blanket first wall, as this coolant is chemically and neutronically inert and separable from hydrogenic species. However, due to the low thermal mass of helium, geometric optimization of these channels is required to provide sufficient cooling at manageable flow rates and pumping burdens. Increasingly, analysis and optimization of these coolant channels rely on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations, and these require relevant experimental data for turbulence model validation. Toward this end, a high-pressure helium gas flow visualization system has been employed to image the flow of helium in flow channels with one-sided heating, mimicking the blanket first wall environment. Flow of helium at 4 MPa pressure and flow rates up to 68 g/s (Reynolds number 57 000) is supplied to rectangular channel test sections, with uniform heating applied to the bottom wall of the channel at heat fluxes varied between roughly 50 and 130 kW/m2. A high-speed camera is used to image index of refraction (IOR) gradients in the fluid via background-oriented schlieren (BOS), and temperature and pressure instrumentation are used to characterize thermal-hydraulic performance of each channel. Cross correlation of time-resolved BOS images is then used to calculate time-averaged 2-D helium velocity fields. Flow in additively manufactured (AM) channels is examined in this manner, including both featureless channels and those containing baffling as a heat transfer enhancement. The flow distribution seen in the featureless case differs significantly from that seen in prior simulations, whereas the flow in the baffled case shows the predicted behavior of flow forced along the heated wall. This augmented flow distribution is seen to increase the heat transfer coefficient in the baffled test section. Here, strategies are discussed for ongoing and future validation of these simulations, with the aim of model deployment for blanket cooling design and optimization.

Additive manufacturing↗

Model Evaluation Protocol for Fire Models Involving Fuels at Liquefied Natural Gas Facilities.

This document provides a description of the model evaluation protocol (MEP) for pool fires, jet fires, and fireballs involving liquefied natural gas (LNG), refrigerant fluids, and byproducts at LNG facilities. The purpose of the MEP is to provide procedures regarding the assessment of a model's suitability to predict heat flux from fires. Three components, namely, a scientific assessment, model verification, and model validation comprise the MEP. The evaluation of a model satisfying these three components is to be documented in the form of a model evaluation report (MER). Discussion of models for the prediction of fire, detailed information on each of the three MEP components, the MEP procedure regarding new versions of previously approved models, and the format of the model evaluation report (MER) are provided.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Model Evaluation Protocol for Fire Models Involving Fuels at Liquefied Natural Gas Facilities (Version 2)

This document provides a description of the model evaluation protocol (MEP) for pool fires, jet fires, and fireballs involving liquefied natural gas (LNG) and processing fuels at LNG facilities. The purpose of the MEP is to provide procedures regarding the assessment of a model’s suitability to predict heat flux from fires. Three components, namely, a scientific assessment, model verification, and model validation comprise the MEP. The evaluation of a model satisfying these three components is to be documented in the form of a model evaluation report (MER). Discussion of models for the prediction of fire, detailed information on each of the three MEP components, the MEP procedure regarding new versions of previously approved models, and the format of the model evaluation report (MER) are provided.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Coupled Investigation of Fracture Permeability Impact on Reservoir Stress and Seismic Slip Behavior (Final Technical Report)

Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) produce clean energy by circulating fluid through hot rock deep underground and bringing that heat to the surface to generate electricity. For this process to work reliably, fluids must be able to move efficiently through networks of natural or engineered fractures in the rock. Enhancing and maintaining subsurface permeability over time is essential for sustainable energy production. However, fluid injection changes the underground temperature, pressure, rock stress, and chemistry, which can alter permeability and sometimes trigger earthquakes. Predicting these interconnected processes remains a key challenge. To address this, we combined high-temperature laboratory experiments with high-fidelity simulations to better understand how fractures in geothermal reservoirs evolve over time. Our experiments measured how fractures respond to stress, slip, slip rate, and chemical reactions under geothermal conditions. These data were integrated into coupled thermal-hydrological-mechanical-chemical and earthquake (THMC+E) models tailored to the Utah FORGE site. The validated modeling framework improves predictions of reservoir performance and seismic response and helps guide operational decisions. This work reduces technical risk and strengthens the scientific foundation needed to make geothermal energy a reliable and scalable clean energy resource.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Assessing the release, transport, and retention of radioactive aerosols from hypothetical breaches in spent fuel storage canisters

Interim dry storage of spent nuclear fuel involves storing the fuel in welded stainless-steel canisters. Under certain conditions, the canisters could be subjected to environments that may promote stress corrosion cracking leading to a risk of breach and release of aerosol-sized particulate from the interior of the canister to the external environment through the crack. Research is currently under way by several laboratories to better understand the formation and propagation of stress corrosion cracks, however little work has been done to quantitatively assess the potential aerosol release. The purpose of the present work is to introduce a reliable generic numerical model for prediction of aerosol transport, deposition, and plugging in leak paths similar to stress corrosion cracks, while accounting for potential plugging from particle deposition. The model is dynamic (changing leak path geometry due to plugging) and it relies on the numerical solution of the aerosol transport equation in one dimension using finite differences. The model’s capabilities were also incorporated into a Graphical User Interface (GUI) that was developed to enhance user accessibility. Model validation efforts presented in this paper compare the model’s predictions with recent experimental data from Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and results available in literature. We expect this model to improve the accuracy of consequence assessments and reduce the uncertainty of radiological consequence estimations in the remote event of a through-wall breach in dry cask storage systems.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Application of queueing models to multiprogrammed computer systems operating in a time-critical environment

A model of a central processor (CPU) which services background applications in the presence of time critical activity is presented. The CPU is viewed as an M/M/1 queueing system subject to periodic interrupts by deterministic, time critical process. The Laplace transform of the distribution of service times for the background applications is developed. The use of state of the art queueing models for studying the background processing capability of time critical computer systems is discussed and the results of a model validation study which support this application of queueing models are presented.

Eckhardt, D. E., Jr.↗

Assessment models

The types of models used in assessment of possible chemical perturbations to the stratosphere are reviewed. The statue of one and two dimensional models are discussed. The problem of model validation is covered before the status of photochemical modeling efforts is discussed. A hierarchy of tests for photochemical models is presented.

Pyle, J. A.↗

Computational Modeling in Structural Materials Processing

High temperature materials such as silicon carbide, a variety of nitrides, and ceramic matrix composites find use in aerospace, automotive, machine tool industries and in high speed civil transport applications. Chemical vapor deposition (CVD) is widely used in processing such structural materials. Variations of CVD include deposition on substrates, coating of fibers, inside cavities and on complex objects, and infiltration within preforms called chemical vapor infiltration (CVI). Our current knowledge of the process mechanisms, ability to optimize processes, and scale-up for large scale manufacturing is limited. In this regard, computational modeling of the processes is valuable since a validated model can be used as a design tool. The effort is similar to traditional chemically reacting flow modeling with emphasis on multicomponent diffusion, thermal diffusion, large sets of homogeneous reactions, and surface chemistry. In the case of CVI, models for pore infiltration are needed. In the present talk, examples of SiC nitride, and Boron deposition from the author's past work will be used to illustrate the utility of computational process modeling.

Meyyappan, Meyya↗

Development of a Solid-Oxide Fuel Cell/Gas Turbine Hybrid System Model for Aerospace Applications

Recent interest in fuel cell-gas turbine hybrid applications for the aerospace industry has led to the need for accurate computer simulation models to aid in system design and performance evaluation. To meet this requirement, solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) and fuel processor models have been developed and incorporated into the Numerical Propulsion Systems Simulation (NPSS) software package. The SOFC and reformer models solve systems of equations governing steady-state performance using common theoretical and semi-empirical terms. An example hybrid configuration is presented that demonstrates the new capability as well as the interaction with pre-existing gas turbine and heat exchanger models. Finally, a comparison of calculated SOFC performance with experimental data is presented to demonstrate model validity. Keywords: Solid Oxide Fuel Cell, Reformer, System Model, Aerospace, Hybrid System, NPSS

Freeh, Joshua E.↗

SEE Rate Estimation: Model Complexity and Data Requirements

Statistical Methods outlined in [Ladbury, TNS20071 can be generalized for Monte Carlo Rate Calculation Methods Two Monte Carlo Approaches: a) Rate based on vendor-supplied (or reverse-engineered) model SEE testing and statistical analysis performed to validate model; b) Rate calculated based on model fit to SEE data Statistical analysis very similar to case for CREME96. Information Theory allows simultaneous consideration of multiple models with different complexities: a) Model with lowest AIC usually has greatest predictive power; b) Model averaging using AIC weights may give better performance if several models have similar good performance; and c) Rates can be bounded for a given confidence level over multiple models, as well as over the parameter space of a model.

Ladbury, Ray↗

Delineating the Impact of Weightlessness on Human Physiology Using Computational Models

Microgravity environment has profound effects on several important human physiological systems. The impact of weightlessness is usually indirect as mediated by changes in the biological fluid flow and transport and alterations in the deformation and stress fields of the compliant tissues. In this context, Fluid-Structural and Fluid-Solid Interaction models provide a valuable tool in delineating the physical origins of the physiological changes so that systematic countermeasures can be devised to reduce their adverse effects. In this presentation, impact of gravity on three human physiological systems will be considered. The first case involves prediction of cardiac shape change and altered stress distributions in weightlessness. The second, presents a fluid-structural-interaction (FSI) analysis and assessment of the vestibular system and explores the reasons behind the unexpected microgravity caloric stimulation test results performed aboard the Skylab. The last case investigates renal stone development in microgravity and the possible impact of re-entry into partial gravity on the development and transport of nucleating, growing, and agglomerating renal calculi in the nephron. Finally, the need for model validation and verification and application of the FSI models to assess the effects of Artificial Gravity (AG) are also briefly discussed.

Computational Models↗

DAVINCI Venus Entry, Descent, and Landing Modeling and Simulation

The Deep Atmosphere Venus Investigation of Noble gases, Chemistry, and Imaging (DAVINCI) mission will launch in June 2029 and explore Venus via two flybys and a probe landing scheduled for June 2031. The goals of the mission are to study the origin, evolution, and current state of Venus and to understand if it was habitable at a point in the past. The entry, descent, and landing (EDL) concept of operations of the probe leverages on the successful Pioneer Venus large probe mission. The science objectives of the mission levy certain requirements on the EDL system, such as landing in the scientifically important Alpha Regio Tessera and telemetering several gigabytes of instrumentation data to the orbiting relay spacecraft before the probe impacts the surface. In order to optimize the EDL sequence of the lander and to verify key driving requirements, a six degree of freedom EDL flight mechanics simulation has been created based on the best available aerodynamic and atmospheric models valid for Venus. This paper describes the EDL modeling and simulation and summarizes the current flight mechanics results for the mission.

Soumyo Dutta↗