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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 937 records · Page 52
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Physics-guided Deep Learning for Power System State Estimation

In the past decade, dramatic progress has been made in the field of machine learning. This paper explores the possibility of applying deep learning in power system state estimation. Traditionally, physics-based models are used including weighted least square (WLS) or weighted least absolute value (WLAV). These models typically consider a single snapshot of the system without capturing temporal correlations of system states. In this paper, a physics-guided deep learning (PGDL) method is proposed. Specifically, inspired by autoencoders, deep neural networks (DNNs) are used to learn the temporal correlations. The estimated system states from DNNs are then checked against physics laws by running through a set of power flow equations. Hence, the proposed PGDL is both data-driven and physics-guided. The accuracy and robustness of the proposed PGDL method are compared with traditional methods in standard IEEE cases. Simulations show promising results and the applicability is further discussed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2019

Machine Learning Applied to Star–Galaxy–QSO Classification and Stellar Effective Temperature Regression

In modern astrophysics, machine learning has increasingly gained popularity with its incredibly powerful ability to make predictions or calculated suggestions for large amounts of data. We describe an application of the supervised machine-learning algorithm, random forests (RF), to the star/galaxy/QSO classification and the stellar effective temperature regression based on the combination of Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope and Sloan Digital Sky Survey spectroscopic data. This combination enables us to obtain reliable predictions with one of the largest training samples ever used. The training samples are built with a nine-color data set of about three million objects for the classification and a seven-color data set of over one million stars for the regression. The performance of the classification and regression is examined with validation and blind tests on the objects in the RAdial Velocity Extension, 6dFGS, UV-bright Quasar Survey and Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment surveys. We demonstrate that RF is an effective algorithm, with classification accuracies higher than 99% for stars and galaxies, and higher than 94% for QSOs. These accuracies are higher than machine-learning results in former studies. The total standard deviations of the regression are smaller than 200 K, which is similar to those of some spectrum-based methods. The machine-learning algorithm with the broad-band photometry provides us with a more efficient approach for dealing with massive amounts of astrophysical data than do traditional color cuts and spectral energy distribution fits.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

GEPA: Reflective Prompt Evolution Can Outperform Reinforcement Learning

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly adapted to downstream tasks via reinforcement learning (RL) methods like Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), which often require thousands of rollouts to learn new tasks. We argue that the interpretable nature of language often provides a much richer learning medium for LLMs, compared to policy gradients derived from sparse, scalar rewards. To test this, we introduce GEPA (Genetic-Pareto), a prompt optimizer that thoroughly incorporates natural language reflection to learn high-level rules from trial and error. Given any AI system containing one or more LLM prompts, GEPA samples trajectories (e.g., reasoning, tool calls, and tool outputs) and reflects on them in natural language to diagnose problems, propose and test prompt updates, and combine complementary lessons from the Pareto frontier of its own attempts. As a result of GEPA's design, it can often turn even just a few rollouts into a large quality gain. Across six tasks, GEPA outperforms GRPO by 6% on average and by up to 20%, while using up to 35x fewer rollouts. GEPA also outperforms the leading prompt optimizer, MIPROv2, by over 10% (e.g., +12% accuracy on AIME-2025), and demonstrates promising results as an inference-time search strategy for code optimization. We release our code at https://github.com/gepa-ai/gepa.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Gearbox bearing crack growth prognostics and uncertainty quantification with physics-informed machine learning

This paper introduces the extreme theory of functional connections (X-TFC), a physics-informed machine learning algorithm, and tailors it to estimate the remaining useful life (RUL) of wind turbine gearbox bearings experiencing fatigue crack growth. Unlike purely data-driven methods, X-TFC embeds a physics model, based on Head's theory in this work, into its training objective. The core of X-TFC is a random-projection single-layer neural network trained via an extreme learning machine, which requires only limited damage progression data and solves for output weights with a least-squares optimization algorithm. A composite loss function balances the network's fit to observed degradation data against the residuals of the governing crack growth differential equation, ensuring the learned damage trajectory remains physically plausible. When applied to a vibration-based health-index (HI) dataset measured during the growth of a crack on the inner ring of a high-speed bearing in a wind turbine gearbox (Bechhoefer and Dubé, 2020), X-TFC achieves near-zero prediction bias. Even when trained on only the first 10 %–20 % of the damage progression data, with sufficient physics weighting its predictions remain monotonic and smooth, delivering high prognosability and trendability. To quantify the epistemic uncertainty, we employ a Monte Carlo ensemble of independently initialized X-TFC models trained on noise-perturbed data, which yields confidence intervals around each RUL estimate and captures both model-parameter and epistemic uncertainty. In addition to a vibration-based HI, we demonstrate that the proposed framework can be directly applied to a supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data-based HI (Eftekhari Milani et al., 2026) measured during similar wind turbine gearbox bearing crack faults, preserving its accuracy and interpretability. This extension shows the versatility of our approach, which is applicable to bearings of multiple gearbox manufacturers, models, and ratings using only SCADA data. By integrating domain knowledge with machine learning, X-TFC offers a rapid, reliable tool for crack prognostics. Its adaptability to other bearing failure modes, such as pitch bearing ring cracks, positions X-TFC as a powerful enabler of data-driven, physics-informed asset management in the wind energy sector and beyond.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Network-Scale Ubiquitous Volume Estimation Using Tree-Based Ensemble Learning Methods

Currently ubiquitous volume data for roadway networks remains the key missing dimension in traffic operations. Most volume data are average annual daily traffic (AADT) measures derived from the Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS). Although methods to factor the AADT to hourly averages for typical day of week exist, actual volume data is limited to a sparse collection of locations in which volumes are continuously recorded. This paper/poster explores the use of state-of-art machine learning techniques to estimate accurate volume measures that span the highway network providing ubiquitous coverage in space, and point-in-time measures for a specific date and time. Three tree-based ensemble learning models, random forest (RF), gradient boost machine (GBM), and extreme gradient boost (XGBoost), were tested for volume estimation by learning from combined dataset of commercial probe data provided by TomTom, the FHWA's Travel Monitoring Analysis System (TMAS) data, and other infrastructure attributes such as number of lanes, speed limit, and weather. The methods were tested on major corridors and freeways in the metropolitan area of Denver. All three machine learning methods were able to provide hourly volume estimates 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and 365 days a year with around 18% mean absolute error to true volume and about 5% of error with respect to roadway capacity. The low error measures allow the potential application by transportation agencies.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Geothermal Operational Optimization with Machine Learning

The Geothermal Operational Optimization with Machine Learning (GOOML) project has developed a generic and extensible component-based system modeling framework to study complex geothermal fields using a data-driven approach. Through building a digital twin of a geothermal steam field with the GOOML modeling framework, operators can analyze historical and forecasted power production, explore possible steam field configurations, and optimize real world operations, all in a cost-effective digital environment. The GOOML modeling software is based on a historical data-assimilation framework that uses first-principal thermodynamics to model steam field components using historical data, and a forecast framework that uses machine-learning-driven models of steam field components to predict future operations. This modeling framework creates countless new opportunities for digital exploration of steam field design and operations. To date, digital twins have been developed for several steam fields in New Zealand and the United States. These digital twins have been validated by comparing hindcast predictions against historical production data. Field design and operations have been explored using genetic optimization and reinforcement learning. Initial results show compelling and often surprising opportunities for improved design and operation of fields with 2 to 5 percent improvements in annual energy production. GOOML is driving a step-change in geothermal operations by applying state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms, comprehensive data analytics, and a first-of-its-kind intelligent geothermal systems model.

40 EE - Geothermal Technologies Office (EE-4G)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bat554: Machine Learning for Accelerated Life Prediction and Cell Design

This presentation describes work associated with the early prediction of life and failure modes using machine learning. Key areas which will be highlighted are the generation of synthetic data, the use of deep learning and other machine learning models and the use of machine learning to train life prediction models.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

GOOML - Real World Applications of Machine Learning in Geothermal Operations

GOOML (Geothermal Operational Optimization with Machine Learning) is a machine-learning based framework that enables geothermal power plant operators to explore optimization opportunities for their assets in an efficient and robust digital environment. Backed by real-world data sources, thermodynamic constraints and steamfield intelligence, the GOOML environment provides new tools to explore how to best operate steamfields as well as test new scenarios and configurations prior to implementation in the field. To prove the effectiveness of GOOML, we have undertaken optimization experiments using reinforcement learning (RL) to generate operational suggestions using a balance of mass-take targets, sustainability considerations and net generation. Our experiments use the GOOML construct to explore different field parameters and perform multiple reinforcement learning experiments. Like a comprehensive laboratory workbench, we can change out components of a steamfield to perform testing under a variety of conditions (restrict mass, increase pressure, reroute steam, etc.). This flexibility allows us to explore conditions that would require significant infrastructure changes in a real-world setting at a fraction of the cost and time in a digital environment. The results highlight the benefits of using digital twins and advanced data analytics for the geothermal industry.

forecasting↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine-Learning-aided Approach for Predicting the Thermal Expansion Behaviors in Advanced Test Reactor Capsules (NURETH-20 full paper)

Instrumented experiments at test reactors are essential to deploying new advanced reactor systems. Designing new experiments and generating data on specific conditions require both time and cost investment. A high-fidelity model of the experiment environment can be created using finite element analysis software to support the actual experiments, but computation time is still a concern in applying outcomes to real-time usage (e.g., a digital twin). This research proposes a machine-learning-aided approach to temperature and displacement predictions, based on the thickness of the outer gas gap on the experimental capsule used for the in-pile demonstration of a novel thermal conductivity probe in the Advanced Test Reactor. The capsule consisted of U10Zr fuel, a rodlet, sodium, and inner and outer capsules. There were gas gaps between the fuel and rodlet and between the inner and outer capsule. The learning data consisted of an experimental capsule’s radial distributions of temperature and displacement, as obtained from Abaqus and the physical features. For the first step, temperature was predicted using three positional parameters. Then the displacement was predicted using six different positional parameters. Each physical feature was normalized to be both nondimensional and standardized. The temperature and displacement predictions showed good agreement in all cases involving interpolation and extrapolation. Also, data similarity enhancement increased the similarity between training and target data increasing the predictive accuracy of machine-learning models. In some cases of extrapolation, the accuracy of the machine-learning model showed limited performance, but still data similarity enhancement improved the accuracy.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Lithium-Ion Battery Diagnostics Using Electrochemical Impedance via Machine-Learning

Diagnosing battery states such as health, state-of-charge, or temperature is crucial for ensuring the safety and reliability of electrochemical energy storage systems. While some states, such as temperature, may be measured using cheap sensors, accurate diagnosis of battery health metrics usually requires time-consuming performance measurements, making them infeasible for use in real-world operation. These health metrics can be measured during lab-testing and then estimated on-line using predictive life models or via state observer algorithms such as Kalman filters, but these predictive methods should be supplemented by actual measurement of battery health whenever possible to ensure reliability. Rapid measurement of battery health may be done by various types of fast diagnostic techniques such as electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS), which can be performed in only a few minutes and require only a fraction of the energy and power needed for a full charge and discharge measurement. But there is a substantial challenge for estimating battery health using EIS data, as EIS is sensitive to cell temperature, state-of-charge, current, and resting time in addition to health. Thus, utilizing EIS data to predict battery capacity requires correcting for all these additional variables, a task that is extremely difficult to handle analytically. This talk utilizes machine-learning methods to estimate the effectiveness of battery capacity prediction from EIS data, leveraging a data set of hundreds of EIS measurements recorded at varying temperature and state-of-charge throughout a 500-day aging study of 32 commercial, large-format NMC-Graphite lithium-ion batteries. Using EIS as input to machine-learning models is complicated by the nonlinear response of impedance to battery health, temperature, and state-of-charge, as well as the collinearity between the impedance response at neighboring frequencies, which can easily lead to overfit models. To train robust models, features from EIS data need to be extracted from the data or some subset of critical frequencies selected. Many approaches for extracting and selecting features from EIS data from electrochemical analysis and machine-learning fields were identified for analysis: using the entire raw spectra; selection of one, two, or many frequencies from the entire spectra; selecting interesting points from the EIS measurement using domain knowledge; fitting EIS with an equivalent-circuit model; calculating statistics on the raw impedance values; and reducing the dimensionality of the data using unsupervised linear (principal component analysis) and non-linear (uniform manifold approximation and projection) methods. These approaches were rigorously compared using a machine-learning pipeline approach, training linear, Gaussian process, and random forest regression models and quantifying performance using cross-validation as well as a held-out test set. An artificial neural network model trained on the raw spectra was also tested. Promising pipelines were fine-tuned via Bayesian hyperparameter optimization using cross-validation loss and training with class-specific weights to counter data set imbalance. The most reliable method for utilizing impedance in this work was the selection of two optimal frequencies through an exhaustive search, resulting in about 2% mean absolute error on test data for both Gaussian process and random forest model architectures. Interrogation of a variety of models reveals critical frequencies of 100 Hz and 103 Hz for this data set, though the optimal set of frequencies is not necessarily intuitive, i.e., the best performing models are not simply those that use impedance at frequencies that have the highest correlation to the relative discharge capacity. The best performing model is an ensemble model, which is able to predict battery capacity with 1.9% mean absolute error for unseen cells using impedance recorded at a variety of temperatures and states-of-charge.

battery↗
DOE OSTI2024

Novel Approach to PV Inverter Modeling and Simulation Leveraging Experiments, Learning Based Modeling and Co-Simulation: Preprint

Photovoltaic inverter (PV) inverter manufacturers use custom, proprietary control approaches and topologies in their inverter design. Due to this proprietary nature, it is not possible to share EMT domain models for system studies. This research work presents a novel approach in experimental design, high fidelity data collection, use of learning-based modeling, and co-simulation to enhance the PV inverter modeling. We used a 20 kW off-the-shelf grid following PV inverter and subjected the inverter to controlled tests including voltage and frequency step changes, as well as solar irradiance variations. The recorded high frequency data was used in learning-based model training. This learning-based model was imported into an Electromagnetic Transient (EMT) simulation tool using co-simulation techniques to complete the modeling effort and integrate the model into an EMT simulation tool. The three key components in this research work are the design of experimental setup, use of learning-based approach for model development and use of co-simulation to complete the approach. The proposed approach will allow users to develop a model in a really short period of time and achieve reasonable inverter models.

artificial intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integration of Decentralized Graph-Based Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning with Digital Twin for Traffic Signal Optimization

Machine learning (ML) methods, particularly Reinforcement Learning (RL), have gained widespread attention for optimizing traffic signal control in intelligent transportation systems. However, existing ML approaches often exhibit limitations in scalability and adaptability, particularly within large traffic networks. This paper introduces an innovative solution by integrating decentralized graph-based multi-agent reinforcement learning (DGMARL) with a Digital Twin to enhance traffic signal optimization, targeting the reduction of traffic congestion and network-wide fuel consumption associated with vehicle stops and stop delays. In this approach, DGMARL agents are employed to learn traffic state patterns and make informed decisions regarding traffic signal control. The integration with a Digital Twin module further facilitates this process by simulating and replicating the real-time asymmetric traffic behaviors of a complex traffic network. The evaluation of this proposed methodology utilized PTV-Vissim, a traffic simulation software, which also serves as the simulation engine for the Digital Twin. The study focused on the Martin Luther King (MLK) Smart Corridor in Chattanooga, Tennessee, USA, by considering symmetric and asymmetric road layouts and traffic conditions. Comparative analysis against an actuated signal control baseline approach revealed significant improvements. Experiment results demonstrate a remarkable 55.38% reduction in Eco_PI, a developed performance measure capturing the cumulative impact of stops and penalized stop delays on fuel consumption, over a 24 h scenario. In a PM-peak-hour scenario, the average reduction in Eco_PI reached 38.94%, indicating the substantial improvement achieved in optimizing traffic flow and reducing fuel consumption during high-demand periods. These findings underscore the effectiveness of the integrated DGMARL and Digital Twin approach in optimizing traffic signals, contributing to a more sustainable and efficient traffic management system.

actuated signal control↗
DOE OSTI2025

AutoTandemML: Active Learning Enhanced Tandem Neural Networks for Inverse Design Problems

Inverse design in science and engineering involves determining optimal design parameters that achieve desired performance outcomes, a process often hindered by the complexity and high dimensionality of design spaces, leading to significant computational costs. To tackle this challenge, we propose a novel hybrid approach that combines active learning with Tandem Neural Networks to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of solving inverse design problems. Active learning allows to selectively sample the most informative data points, reducing the required dataset size without compromising accuracy. We investigate this approach using three benchmark problems: airfoil inverse design, photonic surface inverse design, and scalar boundary condition reconstruction in diffusion partial differential equations. We demonstrate that integrating active learning with Tandem Neural Networks outperforms standard approaches across the benchmark suite, achieving better accuracy with fewer training samples.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

BUTTER-E - Energy Consumption Data for the BUTTER Empirical Deep Learning Dataset

The BUTTER-E - Energy Consumption Data for the BUTTER Empirical Deep Learning Dataset adds node-level energy consumption data from watt-meters to the primary sweep of the BUTTER - Empirical Deep Learning Dataset. This dataset contains energy consumption and performance data from 63,527 individual experimental runs spanning 30,582 distinct configurations: 13 datasets, 20 sizes (number of trainable parameters), 8 network "shapes", and 14 depths on both CPU and GPU hardware collected using node-level watt-meters. This dataset reveals the complex relationship between dataset size, network structure, and energy use, and highlights the impact of cache effects. BUTTER-E is intended to be joined with the BUTTER dataset (see "BUTTER - Empirical Deep Learning Dataset on OEDI" resource below) which characterizes the performance of 483k distinct fully connected neural networks but does not include energy measurements.

Array↗
DOE OSTI2026

Federated learning for 2D synchrotron x-ray diffractometry: a cross-institutional approach for phase quantification of Ti–6Al–4V alloy

High-energy Two dimensional (2D) synchrotron x-ray diffractometry provides important insights into the atomistic structure and phase evolution of materials, yet traditional analysis methods remain complex, knowledge-intensive, and computationally demanding. Deep-learning models offer a powerful alternative for automating their analysis. Institutions that hold these datasets may be unwilling to share their data due to privacy and security policies, as well as the challenges associated with large-scale data transfer. As a result, models trained on local datasets often perform well only on their own data but exhibit bias and poor generalization across different instruments or facilities. To overcome these limitations, we explore federated learning (FL) for 2D synchrotron diffractograms, enabling collaborative model training without exchanging raw data. In this study, 2D synchrotron diffractograms of Ti–6Al–4V alloy collected from two independent facilities are used to train convolutional neural networks for predicting the β-phase volume fraction. Experimental results show that federated global models significantly outperform locally trained models in terms of generalization and achieve accuracy comparable to centralized trained models. These findings demonstrate the potential of FL to enable secure, cross-institutional collaboration and enhance the scalability of deep-learning-based materials characterization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Learning Optimal Power Flow Solutions using Linearized Models in Power Distribution Systems

Solving nonlinear optimal power flow (OPF) problem is computationally expensive, and poses scalability challenges for power distribution networks. An alternative to solving the original nonlinear OPF is the linear approximated OPF models. Although, these linear approximated OPF models are fast, the resulting solutions may result in significant optimality gap. Lately, the application of machine learning (ML) methods in successfully solving the nonlinear OPF has been reported. These methods learn and estimate the nonlinear control policies using a purely data-driven approach. In this paper, we propose an approach to complements the ML based approach to solving OPF using solutions from known linearized OPF model. Specifically, we use supervised learning to map the solutions of linear OPF to nonlinear control variables. Unlike, the traditional ML based methods for OPF that approximate the full distribution feeder model using function approximation, our approach uses a two-node approximation of radial networks. The proposed approach is validated using IEEE 123 bus test system for OPF solutions obtained using the nonlinear OPF models.

optimal power flow, power distribution systems, su↗
DOE OSTI2025

Structure‐Aware Representation Learning for Effective Performance Prediction

ABSTRACT Application performance is a function of several unknowns stemming from the interactions between the application, runtime, OS, and underlying hardware, making it challenging to model performance using deep learning techniques, especially without a large labeled dataset. Collecting such labeled longitudinal datasets can take weeks. Intuitively, developers could save analysis time during code development by taking a comparative approach between multiple applications. However, the unknown dynamic interactions between applications and execution environments make it difficult for deep learning‐based models to predict the performance of new applications. In this paper, we address these problems by presenting a labeled dataset for the community and taking a comparative analysis approach to explore the source code differences between different correct implementations of the same problem. This paper assesses the feasibility of using purely static information, for example, Abstract Syntax Tree (AST), of applications to predict performance change based on code structure. We evaluate several deep learning‐based representation learning techniques for source code and propose an architecture for the tree‐based Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) models to discover latent representations for a source code's hierarchical structure. We demonstrate that our proposed architecture enables feed‐forward predictive models to predict change in performance using source code with up to 84% accuracy.

Ramadan, Tarek [Department of Computer Science Tex↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine Learning Calabi–Yau Metrics

We apply machine learning to the problem of finding numerical Calabi–Yau metrics. Building on Donaldson's algorithm for calculating balanced metrics on Kähler manifolds, we combine conventional curve fitting and machine-learning techniques to numerically approximate Ricci-flat metrics. We show that machine learning is able to predict the Calabi–Yau metric and quantities associated with it, such as its determinant, having seen only a small sample of training data. Using this in conjunction with a straightforward curve fitting routine, we demonstrate that it is possible to find highly accurate numerical metrics much more quickly than by using Donaldson's algorithm alone, with our new machine-learning algorithm decreasing the time required by between one and two orders of magnitude.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗