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The Use of Satellite-Measured Aerosol Optical Depth to Constrain Biomass Burning Emissions Source Strength in a Global Model GOCART

Small particles in the atmosphere, called "atmospheric aerosol" have a direct effect on Earth climate through scattering and absorbing sunlight, and also an indirect effect by changing the properties of clouds, as they interact with solar radiation as well. Aerosol typically stays in the atmosphere for several days, and can be transported long distances, affecting air quality, visibility, and human health not only near the source, but also far downwind. Smoke from vegetation fires is one of the main sources of atmospheric aerosol; other sources include anthropogenic pollution, dust, and sea salt. Chemistry transport models (CTMs) are among the major tools for studying the atmospheric and climate effects of aerosol. Due to the considerable variation of aerosol concentrations and properties on many temporal and spatial scales, and the complexity of the processes involved, the uncertainties in aerosol effects on climate are large, as is featured in the latest report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007. Reducing this uncertainty in the models is very important both for predicting future climate scenarios and for regional air quality forecasting and mitigation. During vegetation fires, also called biomass burning (BB) events, complex mixture of gases and particles is emitted. The amount of BB emissions is usually estimated taking into account the intensity and size of the fire and the properties of burning vegetation. These estimates are input into CTMs to simulate BB aerosol. Unfortunately, due to large variability of fire and vegetation properties, the quantity of BB emissions is very difficult to estimate and BB emission inventories provide numbers that can differ by up to the order of magnitude in some regions. Larger uncertainties in data input make uncertainties in model output larger as well. A powerful way to narrow the range of possible model estimates is to compare model output to observations. We use satellite observations of aerosol properties, specifically aerosol optical depth, which is directly proportional to the amount of aerosol in the atmosphere, and compare it to the model output. Assuming the model represents aerosol transport and particle properties correctly, the amount of BB emissions determines the simulated aerosol optical depth. In this study, we explore the regional performance of 13 commonly used emission estimates. These are each input to global Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model. We then evaluate how well each emission estimate reproduces the smoke aerosol optical depth measured by the MODIS instrument. We compared GOCART-simulate aerosol optical depth with that measured from the satellite for 124 fire cases around the world during 2006 and 2007. We summarize the regional performance of each emission inventory and discuss reasons for their differences by considering the assumptions made during their development. We also show that because stronger wind disperses smoke plumes more readily, in cases with stronger wind, a larger increase in emission amount is needed to increase aerosol optical depth. In quiet, low-wind-speed environments, BB emissions produce a more significant increase in aerosol optical depth, other things being equal. Using the region-specific, quantitative relationships derived in our paper, together with the wind speed obtained from another source for a given fire case, we can constrain the amount of emission required in the model to reproduce the observations. The results of this paper are useful to the developers of BB emission inventories, as they show the strengths and weaknesses of individual emission inventories in different regions of the globe, and also for modelers who use these inventories and wish to improve their model results.

Petrenko, Mariya↗

Investigating Sources of Variability and Error in Simulations of Carbon Dioxide in an Urban Region

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions estimation methods that use atmospheric trace gas observations, including inverse modeling techniques, perform better when carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes are more accurately transported and dispersed in the atmosphere by a numerical model. In urban areas, transport and dispersion is particularly difficult to simulate using current mesoscale meteorological models due, in part, to added complexity from surface heterogeneity and fine spatial/temporal scales. It is generally assumed that the errors in GHG estimation methods in urban areas are dominated by errors in transport and dispersion. Other significant errors include, but are not limited to, those from assumed emissions magnitude and spatial distribution. To assess the predictability of simulated trace gas mole fractions in urban observing systems using a numerical weather prediction model, we employ an Eulerian model that combines traditional meteorological variables with multiple passive tracers of atmospheric CO2 from anthropogenic inventories and a biospheric model. The predictability of the Eulerian model is assessed by comparing simulated atmospheric CO2 mole fractions to observations from four in situ tower sites (three urban and one rural) in the Washington DC/Baltimore, MD area for February 2016. Four different gridded fossil fuel emissions inventories along with a biospheric flux model are used to create an ensemble of simulated atmospheric CO2 observations within the model. These ensembles help to evaluate whether the modeled observations are impacted more by the underlying emissions or transport. The spread of modeled observations using the four emission fields indicates the model's ability to distinguish between the different inventories under various meteorological conditions. Overall, the Eulerian model performs well; simulated and observed average CO2 mole fractions agree within 1% when averaged at the three urban sites across the month. However, there can be differences greater than 10% at any given hour, which are attributed to complex meteorological conditions rather than differences in the inventories themselves. On average, the mean absolute error of the simulated compared to actual observations is generally twice as large as the standard deviation of the modeled mole fractions across the four emission inventories. This result supports the assumption, in urban domains, that the predicted mole fraction error relative to observations is dominated by errors in model meteorology rather than errors in the underlying fluxes in winter months. As such, minimizing errors associated with atmospheric transport and dispersion may help improve the performance of GHG estimation models more so than improving flux priors in the winter months. We also find that the errors associated with atmospheric transport in urban domains are not restricted to certain times of day. This suggests that atmospheric inversions should use CO2 observations that have been filtered using meteorological observations rather than assuming that meteorological modeling is most accurate at certain times of day (such as using only mid-afternoon observations).

CO2↗

How emissions uncertainty influences the distribution and radiative impacts of smoke from fires in North America

Fires and the aerosols that they emit impact air quality, health, and climate, but the abundance and properties of carbonaceous aerosol (both black carbon and organic carbon) from biomass burning (BB) remain uncertain and poorly constrained. We aim to explore the uncertainties associated with fire emissions and their air quality and radiative impacts from underlying dry matter consumed and emissions factors. To investigate this, we compare model simulations from a global chemical transport model, GEOS-Chem, driven by a variety of fire emission inventories with surface and airborne observations of black carbon (BC) and organic aerosol (OA) concentrations and satellite-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD). We focus on two fire-detection-based and/or burned-area-based (FD-BA) inventories using burned area and active fire counts, respectively, i.e., the Global Fire Emissions Database version 4 (GFED4s) with small fires and the Fire INventory from NCAR version 1.5 (FINN1.5), and two fire radiative power (FRP)-based approaches, i.e., the Quick Fire Emission Dataset version 2.4 (QFED2.4) and the Global Fire Assimilation System version 1.2 (GFAS1.2). We show that, across the inventories, emissions of BB aerosol (BBA) differ by a factor of 4 to 7 over North America and that dry matter differences, not emissions factors, drive this spread. We find that simulations driven by QFED2.4 generally overestimate BC and, to a lesser extent, OA concentrations observations from two fire-influenced aircraft campaigns in North America (ARCTAS and DC3) and from the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network, while simulations driven by FINN1.5 substantially underestimate concentrations. The GFED4s and GFAS1.2-driven simulations provide the best agreement with OA and BC mass concentrations at the surface (IMPROVE), BC observed aloft (DC3 and ARCTAS), and AOD observed by MODIS over North America. We also show that a sensitivity simulation including an enhanced source of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from fires, based on the NOAA Fire Lab 2016 experiments, produces substantial additional OA; however, the spread in the primary emissions estimates implies that this magnitude of SOA can be neither confirmed nor ruled out when comparing the simulations against the observations explored here. Given the substantial uncertainty in fire emissions, as represented by these four emission inventories, we find a sizeable range in 2012 annual BBA PM2.5 population-weighted exposure over Canada and the contiguous US (0.5 to 1.6 µg/cu. m). We also show that the range in the estimated global direct radiative effect of carbonaceous aerosol from fires (−0.11 to −0.048 W/sq. m) is large and comparable to the direct radiative forcing of OA (−0.09 W/sq. m) estimated in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Our analysis suggests that fire emissions uncertainty challenges our ability to accurately characterize the impact of smoke on air quality and climate.

North America↗

Harmonized Emissions Component (HEMCO) 3.0 as a Versatile Emissions Component for Atmospheric Models: Application in the GEOS-Chem, NASA GEOS, WRF-GC, CESM2, NOAA GEFS-Aerosol, and NOAA UFS Models

Emissions are a central component of atmospheric chemistry models. The Harmonized Emissions Component (HEMCO) is a software component for computing emissions from a user-selected ensemble of emission inventories and algorithms. It allows users to re-grid, combine, overwrite, subset, and scale emissions from different inventories through a configuration file and with no change to the model source code. The configuration file also maps emissions to model species with appropriate units. HEMCO can operate in offline stand-alone mode, but more importantly it provides an online facility for models to compute emissions at runtime. HEMCO complies with the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) for portability across models. We present a new version here, HEMCO 3.0, that features an improved three-layer architecture to facilitate implementation into any atmospheric model and improved capability for calculating emissions at any model resolution including multiscale and unstructured grids. The three-layer architecture of HEMCO 3.0 includes (1) the Data Input Layer that reads the configuration file and accesses the HEMCO library of emission inventories and other environmental data, (2) the HEMCO Core that computes emissions on the user-selected HEMCO grid, and (3) the Model Interface Layer that re-grids (if needed) and serves the data to the atmospheric model and also serves model data to the HEMCO Core for computing emissions dependent on model state (such as from dust or vegetation). The HEMCO Core is common to the implementation in all models, while the Data Input Layer and the Model Interface Layer are adaptable to the model environment. Default versions of the Data Input Layer and Model Interface Layer enable straightforward implementation of HEMCO in any simple model architecture, and options are available to disable features such as re-gridding that may be done by independent couplers in more complex architectures. The HEMCO library of emission inventories and algorithms is continuously enriched through user contributions so that new inventories can be immediately shared across models. HEMCO can also serve as a general data broker for models to process input data not only for emissions but for any gridded environmental datasets. We describe existing implementations of HEMCO 3.0 in (1) the GEOS-Chem “Classic” chemical transport model with shared-memory infrastructure, (2) the high-performance GEOS-Chem (GCHP) model with distributed-memory architecture, (3) the NASA GEOS Earth System Model (GEOS ESM), (4) the Weather Research and Forecasting model with GEOS-Chem (WRF-GC), (5) the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2), and (6) the NOAA Global Ensemble Forecast System – Aerosols (GEFS-Aerosols), as well as the planned implementation in the NOAA Unified Forecast System (UFS). Implementation of HEMCO in CESM2 contributes to the Multi-Scale Infrastructure for Chemistry and Aerosols (MUSICA) by providing a common emissions infrastructure to support different simulations of atmospheric chemistry across scales.

Haipeng Lin↗

Evaluating the Impact of Tritium Permeation Membrane Performance and Direct Internal Recycling on Fusion Fuel Cycle Efficiency Using TMAP8

An efficient fuel cycle is vital to sustainable and cost-effective energy generation in fusion systems. Since tritium is not widely available, fusion systems must breed their own tritium for sustainable fusion deuterium-tritium reactions. An inefficient fuel cycle increases the tritium inventory needed for operations, which increases costs, constraints on tritium management systems, and safety concerns. A fuel cycle model is a powerful tool for understanding tritium inventories and flow rates across all systems in the fuel cycle. By simplifying the technical details into time-dependent tritium flow rates and inventories, the model can simulate the entire fuel cycle with high computational efficiency, even for technologies that are still under development. It can therefore quantify the impact of new tritium management technologies on fuel cycle efficiency. To evaluate the impact of key components on reducing tritium inventory, we are using and expanding an existing fuel cycle models based on latest advancements in fuel cycle research. The new model integrates Tritium Permeation Membrane (TPM) and Direct Internal Recycling (DIR) to enhance tritium transport from blanket breeders and plasma exhaust. These fuel cycle models are implemented in TMAP8 (Tritium Migration Analysis Program, version 8), a MOOSE-based open-source application designed to provide cutting-edge capabilities for tritium transport and fuel cycle modeling. The study aims to demonstrate the extensibility of existing fuel cycle modeling capability in TMAP8 and to offer a proof-of-principle design for future fusion plant systems. The presentation will cover the performance of fuel cycle modeling capabilities available in TMAP8, highlight advancements in fuel cycle research, and present a sensitivity analysis of these models. The results underline potential approaches and technology solutions to lower tritium inventory requirements, highlighting their role in shaping the future of fusion energy.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

An optimization approach for cryogenic distillation-based protium removal systems in magnetic fusion energy fuel cycles

Tritium inventory reduction for fusion power plants is central to the successful adoption of fusion energy. The advent of direct internal recycling in deuterium-tritium fusion fuel cycle design has led to significant reduction in startup tritium inventory estimates for fusion power plants but requires an isotope rebalancing and protium removal (IRPR) system to ensure acceptable isotopic fuel composition. Cryogenic distillation is a potential solution for near-term deployment in an IRPR system due to its demonstrated performance in similar operating regimes. Using protium removal in the fuel cycle as the primary performance metric, this paper presents an optimization methodology for a single-column continuous cryogenic distillation-based IRPR system for a 500 MW fus magnetic fusion device. Distillation column optimization was performed using the CryOgenic Distillation For Isotopic Separation of Hydrogen (CODFISH) code developed at Savannah River National Laboratory. The distillation column design presented maximizes direct recycling of hydrogen isotopes from the fusion chamber exhaust to the fueling system while minimizing IRPR system steady-state tritium inventory. The optimized IRPR distillation column presented achieves direct recycling of 60 % of the hydrogen isotopes in the fusion chamber exhaust with an estimated steady-state system tritium inventory <30 g. In conclusion, the optimized IRPR distillation column operation was then used to estimate the design requirements for a detritation column to treat the IRPR system effluent stream.

CryOgenic distillation↗

Consequence analyses of sabotage-induced radiological releases in high-temperature helium-cooled prismatic microreactors

Here, this study analyzes the radiological dose consequences of sabotage-induced accidents at three high-temperature helium-cooled prismatic microreactors (HTPMs) with thermal power ratings of 1, 10, and 50 MWt. Each HTPM employs uranium oxycarbide tristructural isotropic fuel enriched to 19.75 wt% high-assay low-enriched uranium. Simulations were conducted to estimate reactor core inventory at the point of fuel discharge––when the effective multiplication factor reduced to less than 1––representing peak radionuclide inventory. Postulated sabotage scenarios leading to reactor shutdown were analyzed at two intervals: immediately post-shutdown (0 h) and 3 days after shutdown using the SCALE code for radionuclide inventories and the RASCAL tool for dose consequences. Results show that although HTPMs benefit from inherent safety features and robust fuel design, radiological consequences scale with reactor power because of increased source term inventories. Smaller microreactors exhibited proportionally lower dose consequences. To support the economic and regulatory feasibility of microreactor deployment, this study emphasizes the value of a risk-informed, performance-based approach, as supported by regulations like 10 CFR Parts 100 and 53 in the United States. Microreactor developers should perform site-specific assessments of potential sabotage or low-probability, high-consequence events, especially when considering minimal on-site or full off-site emergency response.

Consequence↗

Evaluation of Uncertainties in the Anthropogenic SO 2 Emissions in the USA from the OMI Point Source Catalog

Satellite remote sensing is a promising method of monitoring emissions that may be missing in inventories, but the accuracy of these estimates is often not clear. We demonstrate here a comprehensive evaluation of errors in anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emission estimates from NASA’s OMI point source catalog for the contiguous US by comparing emissions from the catalog with high-quality emission inventory data over different dimensions including size of individual sources, aggregate vs individual source errors, and potential bias in individual source estimates over time. For sources that are included in the catalog, we find that errors in aggregate (sum of error for all included sources) are relatively low. Errors for individual sources in any given year can be substantial, however, with over- or underestimates in terms of total error ranging from –80 to 110 kt (roughly 10–90th percentile). In this study, we find that these errors are not necessarily random over time and that there can be consistently positive or negative biases for individual sources. We did not find any overall statistical relationship between the degree of isolation of a source and bias, either at a 40 or 70 km scales. For a sub-set of sources where inventory emissions over a radius of 70 km around an OMI detection are larger than twice the emissions within 40 km, the OMI value is consistently overestimated. We find, as expected, that emission sources not included in the catalog are the largest aggregate source of difference between the satellite estimates and inventories, especially in more recent years where source emission magnitudes have been decreasing and note that trends in satellite detections do not necessarily track trends in total emissions. We find that the OMI-based SO 2 emissions are accurate in aggregate, when summed over a number of sources, but must be interpreted more cautiously at the individual source level. Similar analyses would be valuable for other satellite emission estimates; however, in many cases, the appropriate high-quality reference data may need to be generated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Influence of Air‐Sea CO 2 Disequilibrium on Carbon Sequestration by the Ocean's Biological Pump

Abstract The ocean's biological carbon pump (BCP) affects the Earth's climate by sequestering CO 2 away from the atmosphere for decades to millennia. One primary control on the amount of carbon sequestered by the biological pump is air‐sea CO 2 disequilibrium, which is controlled by the rate of air‐sea CO 2 exchange and the residence time of CO 2 in surface waters. Here, we use a data‐assimilated model of the soft tissue BCP to quantify carbon sequestration inventories and time scales from remineralization in the water column to equilibration with the atmosphere. We find that air‐sea CO 2 disequilibrium enhances the global biogenic carbon inventory by ∼35% and its sequestration time by ∼70 years compared to identical calculations made assuming instantaneous air‐sea CO 2 exchange. Locally, the greatest enhancement occurs in the subpolar Southern Ocean, where air‐sea disequilibrium increases sequestration times by up to 600 years and the biogenic dissolved inorganic carbon inventory by >100% in the upper ocean. Contrastingly, in deep‐water formation regions of the North Atlantic and Antarctic margins, where biological production creates undersaturated surface waters which are subducted before fully equilibrating with the atmosphere, air‐sea CO 2 disequilibrium decreases the depth‐integrated sequestration inventory by up to ∼150%. The global enhancement of carbon sequestration by air‐sea disequilibrium is particularly important for carbon respired in deep waters that upwell in the Southern Ocean. These results highlight the importance of accounting for air‐sea CO 2 disequilibrium when evaluating carbon sequestration by the biological pump and for assessing the efficacy of ocean‐based CO 2 removal methods.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

A biomass map of the Brazilian Amazon from multisource remote sensing

The Amazon Forest, the largest contiguous tropical forest in the world, stores a significant fraction of the carbon on land. Changes in climate and land use affect total carbon stocks, making it critical to continuously update and revise the best estimates for the region, particularly considering changes in forest dynamics. Forest inventory data cover only a tiny fraction of the Amazon region, and the coverage is not sufficient to ensure reliable data interpolation and validation. This paper presents a new forest above-ground biomass map for the Brazilian Amazon and the associated uncertainty both with a resolution of 250 meters and baseline for the satellite dataset the year of 2016 (i.e., the year of the satellite observation). A significant increase in data availability from forest inventories and remote sensing has enabled progress towards high-resolution biomass estimates. This work uses the largest airborne LiDAR database ever collected in the Amazon, mapping 360,000 km 2 through transects distributed in all vegetation categories in the region. The map uses airborne laser scanning (ALS) data calibrated by field forest inventories that are extrapolated to the region using a machine learning approach with inputs from Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR), vegetation indices obtained from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite, and precipitation information from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). A total of 174 field inventories geolocated using a Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS) were used to validate the biomass estimations. The experimental design allowed for a comprehensive representation of several vegetation types, producing an above-ground biomass map varying from a maximum value of 518 Mg ha -1 , a mean of 174 Mg ha -1 , and a standard deviation of 102 Mg ha -1 . This unique dataset enabled a better representation of the regional distribution of the forest biomass and structure, providing further studies and critical information for decision-making concerning forest conservation, planning, carbon emissions estimate, and mechanisms for supporting carbon emissions reductions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Influence of Microstructure on the Absorption of Tritium into Gold-Plated 316 Stainless Steel

The interaction of tritium with metal surfaces is the initial step in the overall absorption of tritium by the substrate metal. As a result, limiting the adsorption of tritium to the surface may effectively reduce the quantity of tritium absorbed by a metal when it is in contact with tritium gas. To limit tritium adsorption, many tritium users electroplate gold onto the substrate metal. The gold layer is expected to reduce tritium adsorption, and subsequently absorption, by reducing water adsorption. The present work shows a comparison between tritium inventories in nonplated 316 stainless steel to the inventories in 316 stainless-steel samples electroplated with gold by various commercial vendors and laboratories. Of the various gold-plated samples, only one type of plating shows ~25% reduction in tritium inventory, relative to non-plated steel samples. The degree of tritium absorption appears to be significantly influenced by the porosity, texture, and completeness of the gold layer. Incomplete and/or porous layers lead to increased absorption, while gold layers with smaller surface features lead to similar tritium inventories as non-plated samples. Furthermore, reduced tritium absorption was observed only for complete gold layers with small surface features.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Modeling and analysis of the tritium fuel cycle for ARC- and STEP-class D-T fusion power plants

Abstract The limited tritium resources available for the first fusion power plants (FPPs) make fuel self-sufficiency and tritium inventory minimization leading issues in FPP design. This work builds on the model proposed by Abdou et al (2020 Nucl. Fusion 61 013001), which analyzed the fuel cycle (FC) of a DEMOnstration nuclear FPP-class FPP with a time-dependent system-level model. Here, we use a modified version of their model to analyze the FC of an Affordable, Robust, Compact (ARC)-class tokamak and two versions of a Spherical Tokamak for Energy Production (STEP)-class tokamak. The ARC-class tokamak breeds tritium in a 2LiF + BeF 2 liquid immersion blanket, while the STEP-class tokamak breeds tritium utilizing either a liquid-lithium blanket design or an encapsulated breeding blanket. A time-dependent system-level model is developed in Matlab Simulink ® to simulate the evolution of tritium flows and tritium inventories in the FC. The main goals of this work are to assess tritium self-sufficiency of the ARC- and STEP-class designs and to determine quantitative design requirements that can be used to analyze the adequacy of a proposed FC system. These design requirements are aimed at achieving a low tritium inventory doubling time ( t d ) and a low start-up inventory ( I s t a r t u p ) while keeping the required tritium breeding ratio (TBR r ) as low as possible. We also consider how improvements in FC technology and POs affect TBR r and I s t a r t u p . The model results show that TBR r for ARC- and STEP-class FPPs should be achievable if the tritium burn efficiency (TBE) reaches 0.5%–1% (TBR r < 1.2). This assumes significant, but attainable, improvements over current abilities. However, the model results indicate that an FPP must achieve ambitious performance targets, including FPP availability > 70%, tritium processing time < 4 h, and the implementation of direct internal recycling (DIR). If future research yields major improvements to achievable TBE, it may be possible to achieve tritium self-sufficiency while operating at lower availability and without implementing DIR.

Physics↗

Annual Status Report (FY 2020): Performance Assessment for the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility

DOE O 435.1 and DOE M 435.1-1 require that a determination of continued adequacy of the performance assessment (PA) (CP-60089), composite analysis, and disposal authorization statement (DAS) be made annually, and these guidelines must be used to consider the results of data collection and analysis from research, field studies, and monitoring as well as provide the need to update any radioactive waste management basis documents. Beginning in 1996, the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF) started accepting low-level radioactive, hazardous, and mixed wastes generated during cleanup activities at the Hanford Site. ERDF is composed of a series of cells or disposal areas and can accommodate future design expansions as needed. Currently, there are 10 cells. During this reporting period (fiscal year 2020, which extended from October 1, 2019, through September 30, 2020), approximately 3.39E+04 U.S. tons (3.07E+04 metric tons) of waste was disposed at ERDF. From ERDF inception through September 30, 2020, approximately 18.5 million U.S. tons of waste has been disposed at ERDF, which equates to the consumption of approximately 88% of the disposal volume. As a condition of the DAS, disposal operations within ERDF must be in accordance with the waste acceptance criteria (ERDF-00011) that provide specific radionuclide disposal limits, waste form restrictions, and descriptions of acceptable waste packages in compliance with DOE M 435.1-1 requirements. The ERDF waste acceptance criteria stipulate that waste destined for disposal at ERDF be controlled based on source, physical form, and contaminant concentration and activity levels. There have been no changes to the physical configuration of ERDF or to the waste forms (source, physical form, etc.). No new Unreviewed Disposal Question Screenings or Evaluations have been generated during this reporting period. Therefore, there are no noted impacts to the PA, composite analysis, DAS, or radioactive waste management basis documents resulting from the evaluations and screenings. Sum of fraction analysis shows that the disposed inventory meets both the concentration and inventory threshold requirements. A sum of fractions value is computed for ERDF sensitive radionuclides contributing to the all pathways and air pathway inventory limits. Computed values were 8.85E-02 and 1.78E-01, respectively. The disposed waste inventory remained well under the PA imposed limits. Required monitoring was satisfactorily completed during the fiscal year reporting period (fiscal year 2020). Compliance with performance objectives were met as each of the reported values were well below the established limit. Overall, there are no substantive changes to primary PA assumptions nor changes to the PA analysis conclusion; therefore, compliance with DOE O 435.1 and the DAS is maintained.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Quantifying Impacts of Renewable Electricity Deployment on Air Quality and Human Health in Southeast Asia Based on AIMS III Scenarios

This study augments the ASEAN Interconnection Masterplan Study III (AIMS III) by quantifying changes to air quality and human health that result from its renewable integration and transmission interconnection scenarios. Performing this analysis requires translation of the changes in projected generation from different power sector fuel sources in the AIMS III scenarios to changes in air pollutant emissions, developing what is known as an emissions inventory for each scenario and year evaluated. An emissions inventory represents who emits air pollutants, from where the pollutants are emitted, when, and how much of which air pollutants are emitted. With the assistance of the ASEAN Centre for Energy and leveraging the best available in-region public data sources, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) team compiled a detailed inventory of power plants in the ASEAN region, mapping their PM 2.5 , sulfur oxides (SOx), and nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions. A new, first-of-its-kind, and user-friendly global air quality model, Global InMAP (Thakrar et al. 2022), is then used to transform the inventory of changes in emissions to changes in concentration of fine particulate matter. Global InMAP then maps the location of human populations in ASEAN countries to calculate humans' exposure to PM 2.5 and estimate excess PM 2.5 -caused mortality attributable to thermal generation sources, as modeled in the AIMS III scenarios.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Performance Assessment for the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (Annual Status Report FY 2022)

DOE O 435.1 and DOE M 435.1-1 require that a determination of continued adequacy of the performance assessment (PA) (CP-60089), composite analysis (CA), and disposal authorization statement (DAS) be made on an annual basis, and that the determination must consider the results of data collection and analysis from research, field studies, and monitoring as well as the need to update any Radioactive Waste Management Basis (RWMB) documents. Beginning in 1996, the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF) started accepting low-level radioactive, hazardous, and mixed wastes that were generated during cleanup activities at the Hanford Site. ERDF is composed of a series of cells or disposal areas and can accommodate future design expansions as needed. Currently, there are eight cells and two supercells in ERDF. Each supercell is the equivalent of two cells. During this reporting period (fiscal year 2022, extending from October 1, 2021, through September 30, 2022), approximately 8.52E+04 metric tons (9.39E+04 U.S. tons) of waste was disposed at ERDF. From ERDF inception through September 30, 2022, approximately 17.0 million metric tons (18.7 million U.S. tons) of waste has been disposed at ERDF, which equates to consumption of approximately 89.1% of the currently constructed disposal volume. According to the design of ERDF, the facility has the ability to be expanded as needed. As a condition of the DAS, disposal operations within ERDF must be in accordance with the waste acceptance criteria (ERDF-00011) that provide specific radionuclide disposal limits, waste form restrictions, and descriptions of acceptable waste packages in compliance with the requirements of DOE M 435-1.1. The ERDF waste acceptance criteria stipulate that waste destined for disposal at ERDF be controlled based on source, physical form, and contaminant concentration and activity levels. There have been no changes to the physical configuration of ERDF or to the waste forms (source, physical form, etc.). No new unreviewed disposal question screenings or evaluations have been generated in this reporting period. Therefore, there are no noted impacts to the PA, CA, DAS, or RWMB resulting from the evaluations and screenings. Sum-of-fractions analysis shows that the disposed inventory meets both the concentration and inventory threshold requirements. A sum-of-fractions value is computed for ERDF sensitive radionuclides contributing to the groundwater pathways and the air pathway inventory limits. Computed values were 5.50E-04 and 3.30E-03, respectively. The disposed waste inventory remained well under the PA imposed limits, as shown in Table 4 and Table 5 in the main text of this report. Required monitoring was satisfactorily completed during the fiscal year reporting period. Compliance with performance objectives were met as each of the reported values were well below the established limit. Overall, there are no substantive changes to primary PA assumptions or changes to the PA analysis conclusion; therefore, compliance with DOE O 435.1 and the DAS is maintained.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Performance Assessment for the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (Annual Status Report FY 2021)

DOE O 435.1 and DOE M 435.1-1 require that a determination of continued adequacy of the performance assessment (PA) (CP-60089), composite analysis (CA), and disposal authorization statement (DAS) be made on an annual basis, and that the determination must consider the results of data collection and analysis from research, field studies, and monitoring as well as the need to update any Radioactive Waste Management Basis (RWMB) documents. Beginning in 1996, the Environmental Disposal Facility (ERDF) started accepting low-level radioactive, hazardous, and mixed wastes that were generated during cleanup activities at the Hanford Site. ERDF is composed of a series of cells or disposal areas and can accommodate future design expansions as needed. Currently, there are eight cells and two supercells in ERDF. Each supercell is the equivalent of two cells. During this reporting period (fiscal year 2021, extending from October 1, 2020, through September 30, 2021), approximately 9.14E+04 metric tons (1.01E+05 U.S. tons) of waste was disposed at ERDF. From ERDF inception through September 30, 2021, approximately 16.9 million metric tons (18.9 U.S. tons) of waste has been disposed of at ERDF, which equates to consumption of approximately 88.7% of the currently constructed disposal volume. According to the design of ERDF, the facility has the ability to be expanded as needed. As a condition of the DAS, disposal operation within ERDF must be in accordance with the waste acceptance criteria (ERDF-00011) that provide specific radionuclide disposal limits, waste form restrictions, and descriptions of acceptable waste packages in compliance with the requirements of DOE M 435-1.1. The ERDF waste acceptance criteria stipulate that waste destined for disposal at ERDF be controlled based on source, physical form, and contaminant concentration and activity levels. There have been no changes to the physical configuration of ERDF or to the waste forms (source, physical form, etc.). No new unreviewed disposal question screenings or evaluations have been generated in this reporting period. Therefore, there are no noted impacts to the PA, CA, DAS, or RWMB resulting from the evaluations and screenings. Sum-of-fractions analysis shows that the disposed inventory meets both the concentration and inventory threshold requirements. A sum-of-fractions value is computed for ERDF sensitive radionuclides contributing to the all pathways and the air pathway inventory limits. Computed values were 7.63E-03 and 1.49E-03, respectively. The disposed waste inventory remained well under the PA imposed limits, as shown in Table 4 and Table 5 in the main text of this report. Required monitoring was satisfactorily completed during the fiscal year reporting period. Compliance with performance objectives were met as each of the reported values were well below the established limit. Overall, there are no substantive changes to primary PA assumptions or changes to the PA analysis conclusion; therefore, compliance with DOE O 435.1 and the DAS is maintained.

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FY23 Report on Water NSTF Testing at Two-Phase Conditions: Off-normal Scenarios

Under support from the Department of Energy (DOE) and the Office of Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART), a large-scale test facility has been constructed at Argonne National Laboratory to generate NQA-1 qualified validation data for passive decay heat removal systems in advanced reactors. The Natural convection Shutdown heat removal Test Facility (NSTF) reflects key features of a ½ scale, water-based, Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS) and is intended to study the behavior, bound performance, and ultimately guide design decisions for passive decay heat removal systems for advanced reactors. In addition to the experimental activities detailed in this report, a supportive computational modeling effort is on-going which has been demonstrated to significantly strengthen the experimental program while also improving accuracy of the computer models. Together these create a mutually beneficial relationship integral to meeting the overall program objective of examining the heat removal performance of the RCCS concept. This report details the experimental activities and upgrades performed during the program’s fifth year of water-based operation. The theme of this year of testing was examining off-normal scenarios. In practice, that meant examining scenarios with blockages or other design basis conditions. From a maintenance and capability standpoint that meant assessing valving options for implementing blockages, assessing drain and refill capabilities, and ensuring in all cases that operators could safely, efficiently, and repeatably bring the facility to an off-normal condition and return it to the normal operating state. In one notable case, no solution existed, nor was a solution commercially available, that met the facility needs for implementing blockages within the two-phase region of the chimney. A valve and feedthrough were custom-designed for NSTF to operate submerged in saturated water while being safely actuated from outside the tank. The fifth year of testing included eight matrix tests consisting of 162 hours of active heating, 9,735 kWh of electrical heating, with seven tests classified as Accepted per NQA-1 and one as Trending. All matrix tests were performed at two-phase flow conditions. The power parametric series from previous years was extended to include another scenario with a decay load equivalent to 1.75 MWt, full scale, further resolving the system flow oscillation response as a function of input power. A depletion test was performed to extend previous work and examine the system’s approach to stagnation and geysering that were not previously observed. This test began at an initial inventory level of 50%, prototypic power of 2.1 MWt, and employed an accelerated drain of 0.75 gpm plus boiloff until stagnation conditions were achieved and multiple geysering events were recorded. Further exploring the geysering phenomenon was a separate effects test examining static boiling in the risers and chimney. This static boiling test was performed at 48 kWe, a higher power than testing in the previous year, and included enhancements to the drain system to remove inventory in a better-controlled and more reliable manner. Two tests were performed, at prototypic conditions of 1.4 MWt and 2.4 MWt, respectively, examining the system response to throttled conditions in the singlephase region of the piping. A ball valve immediately before he riser inlet header was increasingly throttled, progressing the system through a repeatable pattern of two-phase oscillations and stable regimes before ultimately inducing stagnation and geysering. Concluding the year, two tests were performed at baseline conditions of 70% initial inventory level and 2.1 MWt of prototypic decay heat to examine both repeatability and the response to throttling within the two-phase region, at the inventory tank inlet using the custom valve mentioned above. The first such test repeated transient operating conditions and revealed significant sensitivity t

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Investigation of Frozen Chemistry for Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs)

Understanding accident progression and the potential/conditions for fission product release from fuel is necessary to evaluate safety for any nuclear reactor system. Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs) under development need such analysis to support safety evaluations. Fission product chemistry specific to MSR concepts is a critical area that introduces distinct considerations relative to the current state-of-knowledge in reactor safety, primarily developed for water-moderated nuclear reactor systems. In Light Water Reactor (LWR) systems, it is necessary to capture the chemical interaction of fission products with the reactor evironment, containment and confinement systems. The overall effects at this point are relatively well understood for the purposes of performing safety evaluations. A key insight from LWR studies is that fission product chemical behavior can be reasonably captured by modeling approaches where the chemistry is "frozen". These modeling approaches assume that radionuclide reaction and speciation can be represented by chemical classes, each with characteristic transport behavior that is invariant under a broad range of thermochemical conditions. However, radionuclides can exhibit a range of behavior in the liquid salt-melt phase of the coolant used in MSRs. Radionuclides, salt, and the metal containment surfaces (i.e. pipes) can co-exist in dynamic equilibrium that could evolve with small system mass changes. A detailed investigation to the degree the equilibrium state can dynamically evolve with changes in the conditions of the molten salt mixture has not been previously conducted. It is currently not well understood where frozen chemistry assumptions are valid. Expanding the state-of-knowledge in this regard is relevant to better assessing the range of chemical effects that should be incorporated as part of MSR safety assessments. This investigation used the Oak Ridge Isotope GENeration (ORIGEN) module of the Standardized Computer-Analysis for Licensing Evaluation (SCALE) code to generate simulated radionuclide inventories for the MSR Experiment (MSRE) and then modeled reactor chemical speciation using the Molten Salt Thermodynamic Database – Thermochemical (MSTDB-TC) coupled with Thermochimica. The effect of composition variation during decay of fission product inventory in a molten salt over a period of 500 days prolonged post- at multiple temperatures was studied. Mass fractions for fluorine and berilium were varied in order to probe the effects of free fluorine control. Finally, speciation of fluoride reactors were showed by comparing MSRE readionuclide inventories with a FLiBe based molten salt breeder reactor (MSBR). The results showed that fission product mass change has little effect on phase mass changes and vapor pressures for fluoride species, but differ with varying carrier and fuel salt compositions. However, iodine species were found to have a vapor pressure not only dependent on temperature, but also the free fluorine potential, releasing iodine when the free fluorine potential is equal to the iodine inventory. This observation, however, arose under free fluorine potentials that are very unlikely to be realized in typical molten salt mixtures. Despite this observation, temperature was found to be the dominant parameter that drove phase change and fission product species vapor pressure. The results indicate that the current frozen chemistry approach is adequate for MSR analysis.

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