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At least 937 records · Page 52

Identifiability of unknown noise covariance matrices for some special cases of a linear, time-invariant, discrete-time dynamic system

Two off-line schemes are proposed for the identification of unknown noise covariance matrices Q and R of a discrete-time dynamic system. The first scheme is based on a maximum a posteriori cost function utilizing smoothed state estimates, while the second is based on a maximum likelihood cost function utilizing filtered state estimates. Sensitivity of the cost functions to Q and R is analyzed for the following cases: (1) single-input single-output systems; (2) multiinput single-output systems; and (3) single-input multioutput systems with a diagonal R. Identifiability criteria are presented for the cases considered and demonstrated by examples.

Tsang, W. L.↗

Analysis of structural perturbations in systems via cost decomposition methods

It has long been common practice to analyze linear dynamic systems by decomposing the total response in terms of individual contributions which are easier to analyze. Examples of this philosophy include the expansion of transfer functions using: (1) the superposition principle, (2) residue theory and partial fraction expansions, (3) Markov parameters, Hankel matrices, and (4) regular and singular perturbations. This paper summarizes a new and different kind of expansion designed to decompose the norm of the response vector rather than the response vector itself. This is referred to as "cost-decomposition' of the system. The notable advantages of this type of decomposition are: (a) easy application to multi-input, multi-output systems, (b) natural compatibility with Linear Quadratic Gaussian Theory, (c) applicability to the analysis of more general types of structural perturbations involving inputs, outputs, states, parameters. Property (c) makes the method suitable for problems in model reduction, measurement/actuator selections, and sensitivity analysis.

Skelton, R. E.↗

Probabilistic Material Strength Degradation Model for Inconel 718 Components Subjected to High Temperature, Mechanical Fatigue, Creep and Thermal Fatigue Effects

This thesis presents the on-going development of methodology for a probabilistic material strength degradation model. The probabilistic model, in the form of a postulated randomized multifactor equation, provides for quantification of uncertainty in the lifetime material strength of aerospace propulsion system components subjected to a number of diverse random effects. This model is embodied in the computer program entitled PROMISS, which can include up to eighteen different effects. Presently, the model includes four effects that typically reduce lifetime strength: high temperature, mechanical fatigue, creep, and thermal fatigue. Statistical analysis was conducted on experimental Inconel 718 data obtained from the open literature. This analysis provided regression parameters for use as the model's empirical material constants, thus calibrating the model specifically for Inconel 718. Model calibration was carried out for four variables, namely, high temperature, mechanical fatigue, creep, and thermal fatigue. Methodology to estimate standard deviations of these material constants for input into the probabilistic material strength model was developed. Using the current version of PROMISS, entitled PROMISS93, a sensitivity study for the combined effects of mechanical fatigue, creep, and thermal fatigue was performed. Results, in the form of cumulative distribution functions, illustrated the sensitivity of lifetime strength to any current value of an effect. In addition, verification studies comparing a combination of mechanical fatigue and high temperature effects by model to the combination by experiment were conducted. Thus, for Inconel 718, the basic model assumption of independence between effects was evaluated. Results from this limited verification study strongly supported this assumption.

Bast, Callie Corinne Scheidt↗

Probabilistic material strength degradation model for Inconel 718 components subjected to high temperature, high-cycle and low-cycle mechanical fatigue, creep and thermal fatigue effects

This report presents the results of both the fifth and sixth year effort of a research program conducted for NASA-LeRC by The University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA). The research included on-going development of methodology for a probabilistic material strength degradation model. The probabilistic model, in the form of a postulated randomized multifactor equation, provides for quantification of uncertainty in the lifetime material strength of aerospace propulsion system components subjected to a number of diverse random effects. This model is embodied in the computer program entitled PROMISS, which can include up to eighteen different effects. Presently, the model includes five effects that typically reduce lifetime strength: high temperature, high-cycle mechanical fatigue, low-cycle mechanical fatigue, creep and thermal fatigue. Statistical analysis was conducted on experimental Inconel 718 data obtained from the open literature. This analysis provided regression parameters for use as the model's empirical material constants, thus calibrating the model specifically for Inconel 718. Model calibration was carried out for five variables, namely, high temperature, high-cycle and low-cycle mechanical fatigue, creep and thermal fatigue. Methodology to estimate standard deviations of these material constants for input into the probabilistic material strength model was developed. Using an updated version of PROMISS, entitled PROMISS93, a sensitivity study for the combined effects of high-cycle mechanical fatigue, creep and thermal fatigue was performed. Then using the current version of PROMISS, entitled PROMISS94, a second sensitivity study including the effect of low-cycle mechanical fatigue, as well as, the three previous effects was performed. Results, in the form of cumulative distribution functions, illustrated the sensitivity of lifetime strength to any current value of an effect. In addition, verification studies comparing a combination of high-cycle mechanical fatigue and high temperature effects by model to the combination by experiment were conducted. Thus, for Inconel 718, the basic model assumption of independence between effects was evaluated. Results from this limited verification study strongly supported this assumption.

Bast, Callie C.↗

An interleave retrieval method for oversampled limb scans

Rodgers presents a general approach for error analysis of retrievals based on a linearization of the retrieval problem. This approach allows calculation of retrieval error from uncertainties in the input radiances and in each of the forward radiance model parameters. These terms are weighted according to the sensitivity of the retrieval to each of them. We use this framework to describe the results of an error analysis performed on HALOE data. This paper will show the effect of using over sampled profile data and an interleave retrieval technique by application of formal error analysis.

Gordley, Larry L.↗

Optimization of Training Sets For Neural-Net Processing of Characteristic Patterns From Vibrating Solids

An artificial neural network is disclosed that processes holography generated characteristic pattern of vibrating structures along with finite-element models. The present invention provides for a folding operation for conditioning training sets for optimally training forward-neural networks to process characteristic fringe pattern. The folding pattern increases the sensitivity of the feed-forward network for detecting changes in the characteristic pattern The folding routine manipulates input pixels so as to be scaled according to the location in an intensity range rather than the position in the characteristic pattern.

Decker, Arthur J.↗

Improving Balance Function Using Low Levels of Electrical Stimulation of the Balance Organs

Crewmembers returning from long-duration space flight face significant challenges due to the microgravity-induced inappropriate adaptations in balance/ sensorimotor function. The Neuroscience Laboratory at JSC is developing a method based on stochastic resonance to enhance the brain s ability to detect signals from the balance organs of the inner ear and use them for rapid improvement in balance skill, especially when combined with balance training exercises. This method involves a stimulus delivery system that is wearable/portable providing imperceptible electrical stimulation to the balance organs of the human body. Stochastic resonance (SR) is a phenomenon whereby the response of a nonlinear system to a weak periodic input signal is optimized by the presence of a particular non-zero level of noise. This phenomenon of SR is based on the concept of maximizing the flow of information through a system by a non-zero level of noise. Application of imperceptible SR noise coupled with sensory input in humans has been shown to improve motor, cardiovascular, visual, hearing, and balance functions. SR increases contrast sensitivity and luminance detection; lowers the absolute threshold for tone detection in normal hearing individuals; improves homeostatic function in the human blood pressure regulatory system; improves noise-enhanced muscle spindle function; and improves detection of weak tactile stimuli using mechanical or electrical stimulation. SR noise has been shown to improve postural control when applied as mechanical noise to the soles of the feet, or when applied as electrical noise at the knee and to the back muscles.

Bloomberg, Jacob↗

Municipality Level Simulations of Dengue Fever Incidence in Puerto Rico Using Ground Based and Remotely Sensed Climate Data

Dengue fever (DF) is caused by a virus transmitted between humans and Aedes genus mosquitoes through blood feeding. In recent decades incidence of the disease has drastically increased in the tropical Americas, culminating with the Pan American outbreak in 2010 which resulted in 1.7 million reported cases. In Puerto Rico dengue is endemic, however, there is significant inter‐annual, intraannual, and spatial variability in case loads. Variability in climate and the environment, herd immunity and virus genetics, and demographic characteristics may all contribute to differing patterns of transmission both spatially and temporally. Knowledge of climate influences on dengue incidence could facilitate development of early warning systems allowing public health workers to implement appropriate transmission intervention strategies. In this study, we simulate dengue incidence in several municipalities in Puerto Rico using population and meteorological data derived from ground based stations and remote sensing instruments. This data was used to drive a process based model of vector population development and virus transmission. Model parameter values for container composition, vector characteristics, and incubation period were chosen by employing a Monte Carlo approach. Multiple simulations were performed for each municipality and the results were compared with reported dengue cases. The best performing simulations were retained and their parameter values and meteorological input were compared between years and municipalities. Parameter values varied by municipality and year illustrating the complexity and sensitivity of the disease system. Local characteristics including the natural and built environment impact transmission dynamics and produce varying responses to meteorological conditions.

Remote Sensing↗

Use of Groundwater Flow, Solute Transport, and Geochemical Modeling To Evaluate Long-Term Nitrate Plume Concentrations Following Phreatophyte Source Control - 17262

The Monument Valley, Arizona, Processing Site is a former uranium mill site within the Navajo Nation in northeastern Arizona. Milling activities between 1955 and 1968 resulted in contamination of groundwater in the shallow alluvium at the site. Remedial action was completed under Title I of the Uranium Mill Tailings Radiation Control Act of 1978. Site remediation activities between 1992 and 1994 removed surficial source material and other site-related contamination, but contamination of deeper soil, primarily by nitrate, remained between the excavation depth and the water table. Residual nitrate in these soils, from uranium ore processing at the mill, has continued to be a source of groundwater contamination. To evaluate the potential for native phreatophytes to control remaining source material, four-wing salt-bush and black grease-wood were planted in 2000 and 2005 within the footprints of the former tailings piles. The objectives of the plantings were to increase nitrate removal from soil water through root uptake and, because phreatophyte water usage is expected to equal or exceed annual precipitation, to halt nitrate loading to groundwater. Recent evaluation showed more than an 80% decrease in soil nitrate concentrations and no effective groundwater recharge in the planting area. Numerical groundwater flow, solute transport, and geochemical modeling were performed to evaluate the long-term response of the existing nitrate plume to the phreatophyte source control measures. This modeling will help determine if 100-year natural flushing is a viable compliance strategy for the nitrate plume. Results showed that nitrate concentrations in the alluvial aquifer are expected to drop below the standard of 10 mg/L as N in approximately 70 years as a result of the phreatophyte planting. Companion sensitivity analysis was also performed to better understand how uncertainty in groundwater flow model and solute transport model inputs would impact cleanup times. Even considering input uncertainty, nitrate concentrations are expected to reach the standard in the alluvial aquifer within 100 years. Recognizing that model predictions are not absolute, but represent the general potential for an event to occur, the model was used to identify key sampling locations to verify that the nitrate plume will attenuate as predicted. This evaluation identified locations that can be used to assess the viability of the modeling predictions within the next 50 years. If the source diminishes or no longer exists, modeling predicts that concentrations of nitrate and ammonium in these wells should show significant declines over the next 10-55 years. If downward concentration trends do not occur as predicted, other remedial strategies may need to be evaluated to meet groundwater standards within the specified 100-year duration. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Investigation of Heterogeneity Effects on Calculated Sensitivities of the ZPPR-15B Assemblies

In past years, sensitivity studies of ZPR and ZPPR assemblies were carried out with deterministic codes for several purposes, such as uncertainty estimation of calculated parameter values, cross section adjustment, representativity analysis. etc. However, these sensitivity studies used simplified R-Z models of ZPR/ZPPR assemblies where the multi-group cross section data was obtained from the homogenized material compositions of each reactor zone. The main reason for this simplification was the lack of a deterministic path able to compute sensitivity coefficients for complicated 3D geometries in transport theory. Also, each ZPR and ZPPR assembly consists of several different drawers each containing different plate types and plate arrangements and it was felt that performing sensitivity calculations with an equivalent R-Z reactor model would capture most of the feedback while the heterogeneity effects were believed to be of second order. Recently a new code, BuildZPRModel, was developed at ANL that automatically generates the inputs for cross section processing and core calculation of heterogeneous ZPR and ZPPR assemblies for 3D transport calculations. Additionally, the PERSENT code (recently developed at ANL as well) is able to carry out sensitivity calculations in transport theory on 3D geometries. With the benefit of the newly developed codes, a sensitivity study was performed for the heterogeneous model of ZPPR-15B assemblies 96 and 102 generated by BuildZPRModel. The results were compared with the sensitivities computed with the use of fully homogenized R-Z reactor models, in order to quantify the impact of heterogeneity effects neglected in the analysis performed in past years.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Investigation of Heterogeneity Effects on Calculated Sensitivities of the ZPPR-15B Assemblies

In past years, sensitivity studies of ZPR and ZPPR assemblies were carried out with deterministic codes for several purposes, such as uncertainty estimation of calculated parameter values, cross section adjustment, representativity analysis. etc.. However, these sensitivity studies used simplified R-Z models of ZPR/ZPPR assemblies where the multi-group cross section data was obtained from the homogenized material compositions of each reactor zone. The main reason for this simplification was the lack of a deterministic path able to compute sensitivity coefficients for complicated 3D geometries in transport theory. Also, each ZPR and ZPPR assembly consists of several different drawers each containing different plate types and plate arrangements and it was felt that performing sensitivity calculations with an equivalent R-Z reactor model would capture most of the feedback while the heterogeneity effects were believed to be of second order. Recently a new code, BuildZPRModel, was developed at ANL that automatically generates the inputs for cross section processing and core calculation of heterogeneous ZPR and ZPPR assemblies for 3D transport calculations. Additionally, the PERSENT code (recently developed at ANL as well) is able to carry out sensitivity calculations in transport theory on 3D geometries. With the benefit of the newly developed codes, a sensitivity study was performed for the heterogeneous model of ZPPR-15B assemblies 96 and 102 generated by BuildZPRModel. The results were compared with the sensitivities computed with the use of fully homogenized R-Z reactor models, in order to quantify the impact of heterogeneity effects neglected in the analysis performed in past years. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Rapid Airplane Parametric Input Design(RAPID)

An efficient methodology is presented for defining a class of airplane configurations. Inclusive in this definition are surface grids, volume grids, and grid sensitivity. A small set of design parameters and grid control parameters govern the process. The general airplane configuration has wing, fuselage, vertical tail, horizontal tail, and canard components. The wing, tail, and canard components are manifested by solving a fourth-order partial differential equation subject to Dirichlet and Neumann boundary conditions. The design variables are incorporated into the boundary conditions, and the solution is expressed as a Fourier series. The fuselage has circular cross section, and the radius is an algebraic function of four design parameters and an independent computational variable. Volume grids are obtained through an application of the Control Point Form method. Grid sensitivity is obtained by applying the automatic differentiation precompiler ADIFOR to software for the grid generation. The computed surface grids, volume grids, and sensitivity derivatives are suitable for a wide range of Computational Fluid Dynamics simulation and configuration optimizations.

Smith, Robert E.↗

A functional global sensitivity measure and efficient reliability sensitivity analysis with respect to statistical parameters

Sensitivity analysis and reliability assessment are two important aspects of structural and system safety. Epistemic uncertainty with respect to probabilistic model of input parameters due to lack of knowledge is present in many scarce-data applications and complicates the characterization of uncertainty in model response. In this article, we present two importance measures to evaluate the impact of distribution parameters on the probability distribution function (PDF) of the output and the failure probability. The epistemic uncertainty associated with the distribution parameters is modeled as random variables. Additionally, a modified extended polynomial chaos expansion (MEPCE) approach is introduced in which aleatory and epistemic random variables are modeled and propagated simultaneously while allowing the separate assessment for any single epistemic variable. A MEPCE-based kernel density estimation (KDE) construction provides a composite map from each epistemic variable to the response PDF. The functional global sensitivity index of the PDF with respect to the distribution parameters is thus derived, as a function of output, which is both more informative and more efficient than standard scalar sensitivity measures. Reliability sensitivity indices can be readily evaluated by integrating the global sensitivity index function over the failure zone. Three illustrative examples are used to demonstrate the proposed methodology.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Sensitivity of Stratospheric Retrievals from Radio Occultations on Upper Boundary Conditions

The main uncertainty in the stratospheric retrievals from GPS radio occultation (RO) measurements comes from the lack of reliable measurements in the upper stratosphere and above where the bending due to the neutral atmosphere is weak and residual ionospheric effects are strong. In this work, we quantify the bias and uncertainty of the refractivity and temperature retrievals due to different upper boundary strategies using a simulation study. We use lidar refractivity and temperature profiles as the input states in generating the synthetic occultations. Random noise levels commensurate with the CHAMP RO measurements are then added to the simulated data. Through this study, the sensitivity of stratospheric retrievals to upper boundary methods and parameters are examined. Such error characterizations are important prerequisites towards the effective use of GPS RO data in climate monitoring.

GPS↗

Design of state-feedback controllers including sensitivity reduction, with applications to precision pointing

The design procedure of feedback controllers was described and the considerations for the selection of the design parameters were given. The frequency domain properties of single-input single-output systems using state feedback controllers are analyzed, and desirable phase and gain margin properties are demonstrated. Special consideration is given to the design of controllers for tracking systems, especially those designed to track polynomial commands. As an example, a controller was designed for a tracking telescope with a polynomial tracking requirement and some special features such as actuator saturation and multiple measurements, one of which is sampled. The resulting system has a tracking performance comparing favorably with a much more complicated digital aided tracker. The parameter sensitivity reduction was treated by considering the variable parameters as random variables. A performance index is defined as a weighted sum of the state and control convariances that sum from both the random system disturbances and the parameter uncertainties, and is minimized numerically by adjusting a set of free parameters.

Hadass, Z.↗

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of Duct Propagation Models

This paper presents results of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses conducted to assess the relative merits of three duct propagation codes. Results from this study are intended to support identification of a "working envelope" within which to use the various approaches underlying these propagation codes. This investigation considers a segmented liner configuration that models the NASA Langley Grazing Incidence Tube, for which a large set of measured data was available. For the uncertainty analysis, the selected input parameters (source sound pressure level, average Mach number, liner impedance, exit impedance, static pressure and static temperature) are randomly varied over a range of values. Uncertainty limits (95% confidence levels) are computed for the predicted values from each code, and are compared with the corresponding 95% confidence intervals in the measured data. Generally, the mean values of the predicted attenuation are observed to track the mean values of the measured attenuation quite well and predicted confidence intervals tend to be larger in the presence of mean flow. A two-level, six factor sensitivity study is also conducted in which the six inputs are varied one at a time to assess their effect on the predicted attenuation. As expected, the results demonstrate the liner resistance and reactance to be the most important input parameters. They also indicate the exit impedance is a significant contributor to uncertainty in the predicted attenuation.

Nark, Douglas M.↗

Jacobian-scaled K-means clustering for physics-informed segmentation of reacting flows

This work introduces Jacobian-scaled K-means (JSK-means) clustering, which is a physicsinformed clustering strategy centered on the K-means framework. The method allows for the injection of underlying physical knowledge into the clustering procedure through a distance function modification: instead of leveraging conventional Euclidean distance vectors, the JSKmeans procedure operates on distance vectors scaled by matrices obtained from dynamical system Jacobians evaluated at the cluster centroids. The goal of this work is to show how the JSKmeans algorithm - without modifying the input dataset - produces clusters that capture regions of dynamical similarity, in that the clusters are redistributed towards high-sensitivity regions in phase space and are described by similarity in the source terms of samples instead of the samples themselves. The algorithm is demonstrated on a complex reacting flow simulation dataset (a channel detonation configuration), where the dynamics in the thermochemical composition space are known through the highly nonlinear and stiff Arrhenius-based chemical source terms. Interpretations of cluster partitions in both physical space and composition space reveal how JSK-means shifts clusters produced by standard K-means towards regions of high chemical sensitivity (e.g., towards regions of peak heat release rate near the detonation reaction zone). Furthermore, the findings presented here illustrate the benefits of utilizing Jacobian-scaled distances in clustering techniques, and the JSK-means method in particular displays promising potential for improving former partition-based modeling strategies in reacting flow (and other multi-physics) applications.

Clustering↗