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NASA NTRS2016

Cometary Origin of Atmospheric Methane Variations on Mars Unlikely

The detection of methane in the atmosphere of Mars was first reported in 2004. Since then a number of independent observations of methane have been reported, all showing temporal variability. Up until recently, the origin of methane was attributed to sources either indigenous to Mars or exogenous, where methane is a UV degradation byproduct of organics falling on to the surface. Most recently, a new hypothesis has been proposed that argues that the appearance and variation of methane are correlated with specific meteor events at Mars. Indeed, extraplanetary material can be brought to a planet when it passes through a meteoroid stream left behind by cometary bodies orbiting the Sun. This occurs repeatedly at specific times in a planet's year as streams tend to be fairly stable in space. In this paper, we revisit this latest hypothesis by carrying out a complete analysis of all available data on Mars atmospheric methane, including the very recent data not previously published, together with all published predicted meteor events for Mars. Whether we consider the collection of individual data points and predicted meteor events, whether we apply statistical analysis, or whether we consider different time spans between high methane measurements and the occurrence of meteor events, we find no compelling evidence for any correlation between atmospheric methane and predicted meteor events.

methane↗

NASA NTRS2017

Revision of Paschen's Law Relating to the ESD of Aerospace Vehicle Surfaces

The purpose of this work is to develop a version of Paschen's law that takes into account the flow of ambient gas past electrode surfaces. Paschen's law does not consider the flow of gas past an aerospace vehicle whose surfaces may be triboelectrically charged by dust or ice crystal impingement while traversing the atmosphere. The basic hypothesis of this work is that the number of electron-ion pairs created per unit distance between electrode surfaces is mitigated by the electron-ion pairs removed per unit distance by the flow of gas. The revised theoretical model must be a function of the mean velocity vxm of the ambient gas and reduce to Paschen's law when the mean velocity is zero. A new theoretical formulation of Paschen's law, taking into account the Mach number and compressible dynamic pressure, derived by the authors, will be discussed. This equation has been evaluated by wind tunnel experimentation. Initial data of the baseline wind tunnel experiments show results consistent with the hypothesis. This work may enhance the safety of aerospace vehicles through a redefinition of electrostatic launch commit criteria. It is also possible for new products, such as antistatic coatings, to be formulated based on this data.

electrostatic↗

NASA NTRS2017

Revision of Paschen's Law Relating to the ESD of Aerospace Vehicle Surfaces

The purpose of this work is to develop a version of Paschens law that takes into account the flow of ambient gas past electrode surfaces. Paschens law does not consider the flow of gas past an aerospace vehicle whose surfaces may be triboelectrically charged by dust or ice crystal impingement while traversing the atmosphere. The basic hypothesis of this work is that the number of electron-ion pairs created per unit distance between electrode surfaces is mitigated by the electron-ion pairs removed per unit distance by the flow of gas. The revised theoretical model must be a function of the mean velocity vxm of the ambient gas and reduce to Paschens law when the mean velocity is zero. A new theoretical formulation of Paschens law, taking into account the Mach number and compressible dynamic pressure, derived by the authors, will be discussed. This equation has been evaluated by wind tunnel experimentation. Initial data of the baseline wind tunnel experiments show results consistent with the hypothesis. This work may enhance the safety of aerospace vehicles through a redefinition of electrostatic launch commit criteria. It is also possible for new products, such as antistatic coatings, to be formulated based on this data.

discharge↗

NASA NTRS2017

The Impact of Alternative Trait-Scaling Hypotheses for the Maximum Photosynthetic Carboxylation Rate (V (sub cmax)) on Global Gross Primary Production

The maximum photosynthetic carboxylation rate (V (sub cmax)) is an influential plant trait that has multiple scaling hypotheses, which is a source of uncertainty in predictive understanding of global gross primary production (GPP). Four trait-scaling hypotheses (plant functional type, nutrient limitation, environmental filtering, and plant plasticity) with nine specific implementations were used to predict global V(sub cmax) distributions and their impact on global GPP in the Sheffield Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (SDGVM). Global GPP varied from 108.1 to 128.2 petagrams of Carbon (PgC) per year, 65 percent of the range of a recent model intercomparison of global GPP. The variation in GPP propagated through to a 27percent coefficient of variation in net biome productivity (NBP). All hypotheses produced global GPP that was highly correlated (r equals 0.85-0.91) with three proxies of global GPP. Plant functional type-based nutrient limitation, underpinned by a core SDGVM hypothesis that plant nitrogen (N) status is inversely related to increasing costs of N acquisition with increasing soil carbon, adequately reproduced global GPP distributions. Further improvement could be achieved with accurate representation of water sensitivity and agriculture in SDGVM. Mismatch between environmental filtering (the most data-driven hypothesis) and GPP suggested that greater effort is needed understand V(sub cmax) variation in the field, particularly in northern latitudes.

chlorophyll fluorescence↗

NASA NTRS2017

The Effects of Long-Duration Spaceflight on Training Retention and Transfer

Training our crew members for long duration, exploration-class missions will have to maximize long-term retention and transfer of the trained skills. The expected duration of the missions, our inability to predict all the possible tasks the crew will be called upon to perform, and the low training-to-mission time ratio require that the training be maximally effective such that the skills acquired during training will be retained and will be transferrable across a wide range of specific tasks that are different from the particular tasks used during training. However, to be able to design training that can achieve these ambitious goals, we must first understand the ways in which long-duration spaceflight affects training retention and transfer. Current theories of training retention and transfer are largely based on experimental studies conducted at university laboratories using undergraduate students as participants. Furthermore, all such studies have been conducted on Earth. We do not know how well the results of these studies predict the performance of crew members. More specifically, we do not know how well the results of these studies predict the performance of crew members in space and especially during long-duration missions. To address this gap in our knowledge, the current on-going study seeks to test the null hypothesis that performance of university undergraduate students on Earth on training retention and transfer tests do in fact predict accurately the performance of crew members during long-duration spaceflights. To test this hypothesis, the study employs a single 16-month long experimental protocol with 3 different participant groups: undergraduate university students, crew members on the ground, and crew members in space. Results from this study will be presented upon its completion. This poster presents results of study trials of the two tasks used in this study: a data entry task and a mapping task. By researching established training principles, by examining future needs, and by using current practices in spaceflight training as test beds, this research project is mitigating program risks and generating templates and requirements to meet future training needs.

ISS↗

NASA NTRS2017

Impact Delivery of Reduced Greenhouse Gases on Early MARS

While there is abundant evidence for flowing liquid water on the ancient Martian surface, a widely accepted greenhouse mechanism for explaining this in the presence of a faint young sun has yet to emerge. Gases such as NH3, CO2 alone, SO2, clouds, and CH4, have sustainability issues or limited greenhouse power. Recently, Ramirez et al. proposed that CO2-H2 atmospheres, through collision induced absorptions (CIA), could solve the problem if large amounts are present (1.3-4 bars of CO2, 50-20% H2). However, they had to estimate the strength of the H2- CO2 interaction from the measured strength of the H2- N2 interaction. Recent ab initio calculations show that the strength of CO2-H2 CIA is greater than Ramirez et al. assumed. Wordsworth et al. also calculated the absorption coefficients for CO2-CH4 CIA and show that on early Mars a 0.5 bar CO2 atmosphere with percent levels of H2 or CH4 can raise mean annual temperatures by tens of degrees Kelvin. Freezing temperatures can be reached in atmospheres containing 1-2 bars of CO2 and 2-10% H2 and CH4. The new work demonstrates that less CO2 and reduced gases are needed than Ramirez et al. originally proposed, which improves prospects for their hypothesis. If thick weakly reducing atmospheres are the solution to the faint young sun paradox, then plausible mechanisms must be found to generate and sustain the required concentrations of H2 and CH4. Possible sources of reducing gases include volcanic outgassing, serpentinization, and impact delivery; sinks include photolysis, oxidation, and hydrogen escape. The viability of the reduced greenhouse hypothesis depends, therefore, on the strength of these sources and sinks.

Martian surface↗

NASA NTRS2017

Dynamic Gas Flow Effects on the ESD of Aerospace Vehicle Surfaces

The purpose of this work is to develop a version of Paschen's Law that takes into account the flow of ambient gas past electrode surfaces. Paschen's Law does not consider the flow of gas past an aerospace vehicle, whose surfaces may be triboelectrically charged by dust or ice crystal impingement while traversing the atmosphere. The basic hypothesis of this work is that the number of electron-ion pairs created per unit distance between electrode surfaces is mitigated by the electron-ion pairs removed per unit distance by the flow of gas. The revised theoretical model must be a function of the mean velocity, v (sub xm), of the ambient gas and reduce to Paschen's law when the gas mean velocity, v (sub xm) equals 0. A new theoretical formulation of Paschen's Law, taking into account the Mach number and dynamic pressure, derived by the authors, will be discussed. This equation was evaluated by wind tunnel experimentation whose results were consistent with the model hypothesis.

Electrostatic↗

NASA NTRS2011

Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Collision Avoidance Maneuver Decisions Based on a Bank of Norm-Inequality-Constrained Epoch-State Filters

Sequential probability ratio tests explicitly allow decision makers to incorporate false alarm and missed detection risks, and are potentially less sensitive to modeling errors than a procedure that relies solely on a probability of collision threshold. Recent work on constrained Kalman filtering has suggested an approach to formulating such a test for collision avoidance maneuver decisions: a filter bank with two norm-inequality-constrained epoch-state extended Kalman filters. One filter models 1he null hypothesis 1ha1 the miss distance is inside the combined hard body radius at the predicted time of closest approach, and one filter models the alternative hypothesis. The epoch-state filter developed for this method explicitly accounts for any process noise present in the system. The method appears to work well using a realistic example based on an upcoming highly-elliptical orbit formation flying mission.

Carpenter, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS2018

The Effects of Long-Duration Spaceflight on Training Retention and Transfer

training↗

NASA NTRS2018

Aging and Spaceflight: Catalase Targeted to Mitochondria Alters Skeletal Structure and Responses to Musculoskeletal Disuse

Microgravity and ionizing radiation in the spaceflight environment pose multiple challenges to homeostasis and may contribute to cellular stress. Effects may include increased generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS), DNA damage and repair error, cell cycle arrest, cell senescence or death. Our central hypothesis is that prolonged exposure to the spaceflight environment leads to excess production of ROS and oxidative damage, culminating in accelerated tissue degeneration which resembles aging. The main goal of this project is to determine the importance of cellular redox defense for physiological adaptations and tissue degeneration in the space environment. To accomplish this, we will use both wildtype (WT) mice and a well-established, genetically-engineered animal model (mCAT mice) which displays extended lifespan (Schriner et al. 2005). The animal model selected to test these ideas is engineered to quench ROS in mitochondria by targeted over-expression of the human catalase gene to the mitochondrial matrix. We showed previously that mCAT mice express the catalase transgene in skeletal tissues, bone forming osteoblasts, and bone resorbing osteoclasts. In addition, mCAT mice also display increased catalase activity in bone. Our findings revealed that exposure of adult, male, C57Bl/6J mice to simulated spaceflight (hindlimb unloading and gamma radiation) led to an increase in markers of oxidative damage (malondialdehyde, 4-hydroxynonenol) in skeletal tissue of WT mice but not mCAT mice. To extend our hypothesis to other, spaceflight-relevant tissues, we are performing a ground-based study simulating 30 days of spaceflight by hindlimb unloading to determine potential protective effects of mitochondrial catalase activity on aging of multiple tissues (cardiovascular, nervous and skeletal).

transgenic mice↗

NASA NTRS2016

Association Between Increased Vascular Density and Loss of Protective RAS in Early-Stage NPDR

Our hypothesis predicts that retinal blood vessels increase in density during early-stage progression to moderate nonproliferative diabetic retinopathy (NPDR). The prevailing paradigm of NPDR progression is that vessels drop out prior to abnormal, vision-impairing regrowth at late-stage proliferative diabetic retinopathy (DR). However, surprising results for our previous preliminary study 1 with NASA's VESsel GENeration Analysis (VESGEN) software showed that vessels proliferated considerably during moderate NPDR compared to drop out at both mild and severe NPDR. Validation of our hypothesis will support development of successful early-stage regenerative therapies such as vascular repair by circulating angiogenic cells (CACs). The renin-angiotensin system (RAS)is implicated in the pathogenesis of DR and in the function of CACs, a critical bone marrow-derived population that is instrumental in vascular repair.

Fractal↗

NASA NTRS2019

Discovery of Activities via Statistical Clustering of Fixation Patterns

Human behavior often consists of a series of distinct activities, each characterized by a unique signature of visual behavior. This is true even in a restricted domain, such as piloting an aircraft, where patterns of visual signatures might represent activities like communicating, navigating, and monitoring. We propose a novel analysis method for gaze-tracking data, to perform blind discovery of these activities based on their behavioral signatures. The method is in some respects similar to recurrence analysis, but here we compare not individual fixations, but groups of fixations aggregated over a fixed time interval. The duration of this interval is a parameter that we will refer to as τ. We assume that the environment has been divided into a set of N different areas-of-interest (AOIs). For a given interval of time of duration τ, we compute the proportion of time spent fixating each AOI, resulting in an N-dimensional vector. These proportions can be converted to counts by multiplying by τ divided by the average fixation duration (another parameter that we fix at 280 milliseconds). We compare different intervals by computing the chi-square statistic. The p-value associated with the statistic is the likelihood of observing the data under the hypothesis that the data in the two intervals were generated by a single process with a single set of probabilities governing the fixation of each AOI. We have investigated the method using a set of 10 synthetic "activities," that sample 4 AOIs. Four of these activities visit 3 of the 4 AOIs, with equal probability; as there are four different ways to leave-one- out, there are four such activities. Similarly, there are six different activities that leave-two-out. Sequences of simulated behavior were generated by running each activity for 40 seconds, in sequence, for a total of 6.7 minutes. The figure to the right shows the matrix of chi-square statistics, using a value of 2.8 seconds for τ, corresponding to 10 fixations. Low values (dark) indicate poor evidence for activity differences, while high values (bright) indicate strong evidence. The dark squares along the main diagonal each correspond to the forty second intervals in which the activity was held constant; the 4x4 block at the lower left corresponds to the four leave-one-out activities, while the 6x6 block in the upper right corresponds to the leave-two-out activities. (The anti-diagonal pattern of white squares indicates those activity pairs that share no AOIs.) The chi-square values can be binarized by choosing a particular significance level; we are interested in grouping bins that represent the same activity, effectively accepting the null hypothesis. Therefore, we may adopt a relatively lax criterion; for example, choosing a p-value of 0.2 means that two behaviors that have only a 1-in-5 chance of being produced by a single activity might nevertheless be clustered together. We have explored several methods to perform clustering on the data and solving for the activity probabilities. Greedy methods begin by selecting the time bin that is similar to the most (or least) other bins, and then forming a cluster from it and all other non-discriminable bins. These methods show mediocre performance, as they do not take into account temporal contiguity. Preliminary results indicate that methods that "grow" clusters in time from seed points perform better.

activity analysis↗

NASA NTRS2014

De Novo Synthesis and Functional Study of Primitive Polypeptides in the Prebiotic Protein World

DNA, RNA and proteins within a lipid-bound membrane are the core components of life, but the order of their appearance during the origin of life is still under debate. The widely accepted RNA World hypothesis states that RNA likely emerged prior to proteins and DNA since RNA can serve both replicative and catalytic roles. While biochemists have reproduced the synthesis, polymerization, and replication of nucleotides and RNA under controlled prebiotic conditions, it is clear that such complex organic molecules were are not present in significant amounts in the the starting prebiotic material on Earth either from endogenous production or meteoritic input. In contrast, amino acids are naturally abundant in various prebiotic contexts such as carbonaceous chondrites and Urey-Miller type experiments, and many studies have demonstrated that under plausible prebiotic conditions amino acids could condense or polymerize to give rise to short peptides. These findings support the basis of a Protein World hypothesis for life, however little has been done to study the functions of such primitive peptides. Here we present our novel synthetic biology-based approach to the de novo synthesis of billions of primitive peptidesproteins derived from a limited set of naturally abundant proteinogenic amino acids such as glycine, alanine, aspartic acid, glutamic acid, valine and serine. Of these peptides, the ones with divalent metal-binding capability are of particular interest and will be screened and identified. Certain divalent metals were likely present in prebiotic environments. Not only do they coordinate well with amino acids, but they also catalyze reactions, which are difficult to achieve in organic chemistry. Since D-chiral and non-proteinogenic amino acids are also abundant in the universe and may provide insight into the pathway by which life developed, we will also discuss methods to analyze primitive peptides consisting of these amino acids and D-chiral and non-proteinogenic amino acids. By understanding this naturalistic pathway, we will be able to better understand how life developed here on Earth. Since these amino acids are abundant in universe, this work provide insight into pathways by which life developed on Earth and, by extension, the probability of life arising elsewhere.

Fujishima, Kosuke↗

NASA NTRS2014

Extreme Blazars Studied with Fermi-Lat and Suzaku: 1ES 0347-121 and Blazar Candidate HESS J1943+213

We report on our study of high-energy properties of two peculiar TeV emitters: the "extreme blazar" 1ES 0347-121 and the "extreme blazar candidate" HESS J1943+213 located near the Galactic plane. Both objects are characterized by quiescent synchrotron emission with flat spectra extending up to the hard X-ray range, and both were reported to be missing GeV (gigaelectronvolt) counterparts in the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) two-year Source Catalog. We analyze a 4.5 year accumulation of the Fermi-LAT data, resulting in the detection of 1ES 0347-121 in the GeV band, as well as in improved upper limits for HESS J1943+213. We also present the analysis results of newly acquired Suzaku data for HESS J1943+213. The X-ray spectrum is well represented by a single power law extending up to 25 keV (kiloelectronvolts) with photon index 2.00 plus or minus 0.02 and a moderate absorption in excess of the Galactic value, which is in agreement with previous X-ray observations. No short-term X-ray variability was found over the 80 kilosecond duration of the Suzaku exposure. Under the blazar hypothesis, we modeled the spectral energy distributions of 1ES 0347-121 and HESS J1943+213, and we derived constraints on the intergalactic magnetic field strength and source energetics. We conclude that although the classification of HESS J1943+213 has not yet been determined, the blazar hypothesis remains the most plausible option since, in particular, the broadband spectra of the two analyzed sources along with the source model parameters closely resemble each other, and the newly available Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) and UKIRT (United Kingdom Infrared Telescope) Infrared Deep Sky Survey data for HESS J1943+213 are consistent with the presence of an elliptical host at the distance of approximately 600 Mpc (megaparsecs).

blazar↗

NASA NTRS2016

Hall2De Simulations with a First-Principles Electron Transport Model Based on the Electron Cyclotron Drift Instability

Several years of work have combined plasma measurements in a laboratory Hall thruster and r-z numerical simulations with Hall2De to isolate the spatial variation of the anomalous collision frequency needed in Ohm’s law to produce the observed thruster behavior. This numerical solution is used here to test the validity of a first-principles model of the anomalous transport in these devices before such model is implemented self-consistently in r-z fluid codes like Hall2De. The first-principles model employs quasi-linear theory and is based on the hypothesis that the Electron Cyclotron Drift Instability (ECDI) excites ion acoustic turbulence that, in turn, enhances the effective collision frequency in these devices. We find that a model of the ECDI that assumes Maxwellian velocity distributions for electrons and singly-charged, main-beam, cold ions (Ti=0.07 eV) is insufficient to explain the expected variation of the anomalous collision frequency both in the interior and exterior of the acceleration channel. When warm ions (~0.5-3 eV) are accounted for, the ECDI model in the channel interior appears more promising but fails by orders of magnitude in the near plume region due to the much higher Landau damping of the ion acoustic waves there. This implies that either (a) some process allows the ECDI instability to remain uninhibited by classical Landau damping or, (b) that a different instability (or instabilities) altogether, also insusceptible to Landau damping, is/are active in this region. A previous hypothesis, that convection of wave energy generated by the ECDI in the channel plays a significant role in the near plume, is not supported by the results of the simulations.

Mikellides, Ioannis G.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Modulation of Bone Marrow Primary Cell Osteoblastogenesis and Cell Senescence by Mechanical Stimulation

Cell and animal studies conducted onboard the International Space Station and formerly the Shuttle flights have provided groundbreaking data illuminating the deleterious biological response of bone to mechanical unloading. Specifically CDKN1A/p-21 a cell senescence protein, was found to be upregulated in osteoprecursor cells of the femur during 15-day spaceflight, leading to the working hypothesis that CDKN1A/p-21 plays a role in inhibition of bone formation via mechanical regulation. To evaluate this hypothesis, utilizing a p-21 knockout mouse-line and relevant wildtype control, we cultured femoral bone marrow primary cells under unloaded (static) and cyclically stretched loading through a 30 day osteoblastogenesis protocol. Morphologic evaluation of the cultures demonstrated that mechanical stretching aligned the cells and increased the presence of defined focal adhesion expressing talin, integrin αvβ3, and PTK2 protein tyrosine kinase 2, also known as focal adhesion kinase (FAK) in both mouse strains. In corroboration with previous investigations of cell survival signals relation to FAK, our study found that with greater concentration of focal adhesions via stretch stimulation the live cell percentage was significantly higher than the unloaded controls (p-21 knockout line: +49.70%, p*=0.009, wildtype control: +18.14%, p*=.01). Also evaluated was the mineralization and ECM secretion capability of the differentiating cells. Von Kossa staining has shown that in the p-21 knockout cells unloaded cells produce more matrix that the stretch stimulated, however the matrix is unorganized presenting in sporadic nodules covering approximately 30% of the culture area at day 14 (n=6 wells) while the stretch stimulated cultures have less mineralization content the surface area containing mineralized matrix is greater (~68% at day 14). Q-PCR evaluation of the p-21 knockout cells revealed that canonical (β-catenin cascade) and non-canonical wnt11 and downstream planar cell polarity (wnt/PCP) pathway molecule RAC1 are prevalently upregulated with mechanical stimulation. Immunofluorescence for β-catenin and RAC1 showed co-localization at the nuclear membrane of the p-21 knockout cells but not the wildtype (n=1) suggesting that molecular communication via the canonical and wnt/PCP pathway are initiated by mechanical loading and experience regulation along the signaling cascade by CDKN1A/p-21. Future investigations will further elucidate this relationship and provide causal data demonstrating mechanical loading’s modulatory effect on p-21 expression change.

Juran, Cassandra M.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Space Radiation Induces Long Term Impact on the Cardiovascular System by the Activation of FYN Through Reactive Oxygen Species

Space radiation can damage the cardiovascular system and thus is an important health risk factor for astronauts during long-term space missions. We utilized publicly available transcriptomic data through NASA's GeneLab platform (genelab.nasa.gov) to determine cardiovascular system response to space radiation. GeneLab is an open repository that houses all NASA related omics experiments including on the International Space Station (ISS) and related radiation ground studies. We analyzed 3 datasets from GeneLab: GLDS-117 and GLDS-109, which are ground studies of cardiomyocytes followed-up for 28 days after exposure to 90cGy of proton at 1GeV and 15cGy of 56Fe at 1GeV; and GLDS-52, human endothelial cells (HUVECs) that were cultured for 10 days on the ISS. The ground studies were designed to characterize the long-term impact following space irradiation on cardiomyocytes for 5 different time points up to 28 days after irradiation. Our analysis was guided by the hypothesis that there are common persistent molecules affecting the cardiovascular system due to radiation effects during spaceflight. Endothelial cells are known to directly regulate the development and activity of cardiomyocytes, and thus their response to spaceflight should be highly correlated with cardiomyocytes. To investigate our hypothesis, we identified the molecular pathways that were modified for all time points compared across both radiation on the ground and the pathways found in HUVECs flown in the ISS. We found the following key results related to the cardiovascular systems: 1) space radiation downregulate ROS functions; and 2) the key/driving genes: FYN, LCK, AKT1 are upregulated and LYN and FOS are downregulated with FYN being the central driver/hub for the cardiovascular response to space radiation. It is worth noting the activation of FYN is a key event which prevents cardiac cell death and ROS production. From our study we thus hypothesize that a feedback loop occurs from the oxidative stress caused by space radiation that upregulates FYN which in turn reduces ROS levels and thus ROS pathways, preventing cardiomyocyte and endothelial cell death and thus protecting the cardiovascular systems. We believe that this is a novel mechanism for space radiation induced cardiovascular risk directly linking radiation ground studies to spaceflight

Beheshti, Afshin↗

NASA NTRS2020

Data Science for Weather Impacts on Crop Yield

Private businesses in sectors, such as food, energy, and retail, as well as public sector and federal agencies are interested in the predictive understanding of weather impacts on crop yield, which is an important aspect of food security. Scientific literature has mainly examined how crop yield is impacted by growing season-averaged weather indices. Although a few studies did consider weather extremes in their analysis, their scope was either restricted to measuring their conditional relationship with yield or the extreme event types considered were limited. Selection of regression models, whether the more commonly used linear approaches or nonlinear methods, have not been appropriately justified in this context. Here, we develop data-driven methods to examine two inter-related hypotheses for improved scientific understanding and enhanced predictive modeling. The first hypothesis, that extreme weather indices have a statistically significant information content in them is found to be valid based on linear and nonlinear methods for pairwise dependence. The second hypothesis, examines the value addition of nonlinear regression methods, and suggests that linear approaches may not alone be adequate. The results of this study can inform scientific understanding, generation and relevance of indices and end-to-end risk assessment systems in the context of climate impacts on crop yield. An immediate application may be in the context of NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) which facilitates the generation and dissemination of impacts relevant weather data and indices using a multitude of satellite-derived data sets and model outputs.

Data mining, food security, weather impacts↗