Results for “Gap Assessment” — Page 52

DOE OSTI2021

Compositional heterogeneity in Cs y FA 1- y Pb(Br x I 1- x ) 3 perovskite films and its impact on phase behavior

Hybrid organic inorganic lead halide perovskite semiconductors of the form Cs y FA 1-y Pb(Br x I 1-x ) 3 are promising candidate materials for high-efficiency photovoltaics. Notably, cation and anion substitution can be used to tune the band gaps to optimize performance and improve stability. However, multi-component materials can be prone to compositional and structural inhomogeneity and the extent, length scale and impact of this heterogeneity on lead halide perovskite properties are not well understood. Here we use synchrotron X-ray diffraction to probe the evolution of crystal structure across the tetragonal-to-cubic phase transition for a series of Cs y FA 1-y Pb(Br x I 1-x ) 3 thin films with x = 0.05 to 0.3 and y = 0.17 to 0.40. We find that the transition occurs across a broad temperature range of approximately 40 °C, much larger than for pure compounds such as MAPbI 3 and MAPbBr 3 . Finally, we hypothesize that this smearing of the phase transition is due to compositional inhomogeneities that give rise to a distribution of local transition temperatures and we estimate the composition varies by about 10% to 15% with likely greater heterogeneity for the halide anion than the cation. This approach of mapping the transition is a simple and effective method of assessing heterogeneity, enabling evaluation of its impact.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Objective Structured Clinical Evaluation (OSCE) of an Artificial Intelligence (AI) Clinical Decision Support System (CDSS) Tool

BACKGROUND Objective Structured Clinical Evaluations (OSCEs) have long been established as a robust methodology for summative assessment of clinical skills and decision-making during medical education. The recent integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) into clinical decision-making processes has prompted the need for novel evaluation frameworks to assess the efficacy and reliability of AI clinical decision support system (CDSS) tools. This abstract outlines the process of quantitatively evaluating a novel CDSS (“Doc in a Box” Google 2024) trained on curated medical spaceflight data in the psychomotor domain as it interfaces with a human volunteer acting as the crew medical officer (CMO). PURPOSE The AI CDSS under review was developed as part of the Lunar Command and Control Interoperability (LuCCI) project, which is intended to address a gap in how Lunar Surface Systems (LSS) would interoperate across multiple programs, commercial partners, and international partners. The project objective is to define, prototype, integrate, and evaluate an interoperable lunar command, control, data, and software reference architecture to enable autonomy and informatics capability through common standards across LSS. A multi-modal AI-based CDSS compatible with Federated LSS will assist clinicians in diagnosing and managing complex medical conditions by providing evidence-based recommendations through predictive analytics. Given the critical role of decision-support as NASA continues to evolve its Earth-independent medical operations (EIMO), it is imperative to ensure that such AI tools perform reliably and align with clinical standards during progressive lunar and Martian exploration class missions. METHODS The OSCE framework, traditionally used for evaluating human clinicians, was adapted to assess the AI tool's decision-making capabilities in simulated clinical scenarios. In this adapted OSCE, the AI CDSS was tested across a series of structured clinical scenarios designed to mimic real-life spaceflight patient cases. These scenarios included a range of conditions and complexities, allowing for comprehensive assessment of the tool's performance. Key evaluation metrics included accuracy of diagnosis, timeliness of decision-making, and appropriate recommendations for therapies. The OSCE was scored by human physician evaluators who assessed the AI's recommendations in comparison with expert clinicians' medical decision making to ensure alignment with best practices and the standard of care. RESULTS Preliminary results indicate that the AI CDSS demonstrated high accuracy in diagnostic recommendations and decision support across various scenarios. However, certain limitations were noted, such as occasional discrepancies in handling complex or nuanced cases that required a more contextual understanding. Additionally, the tool scored higher on the diagnostic portion of the rubric, with lower scores in the therapeutic recommendations. These findings highlight the importance of continuous refinement and validation of AI tools through rigorous evaluation frameworks like the OSCE. The adaptation of OSCEs for AI tools presents several advantages, including a structured and reproducible approach to evaluation, the ability to test AI systems in diverse clinical scenarios, and the opportunity to benchmark AI performance against established clinical standards to permit charting of future progress as aerospace medicine evolves as a discipline. Remaining challenges include ensuring that these evaluations capture the full spectrum of clinical decision-making scenarios that will be confronted by CMOs during missions and adequately reflecting real-world variability of the austere spaceflight environment. CONCLUSION Employing OSCEs to evaluate AI clinical decision support tools offers a promising approach to validating their clinical utility and efficacy. This methodology not only provides insights into the tool's performance but also fosters ongoing improvement and alignment with standard of care practices. Future research should focus on refining these evaluation processes and addressing limitations to enhance the integration of AI tools in clinical spaceflight settings. REFERENCES Scott S, Hearns V, Barker MA. Testing Clinical Skills: A Look at the OSCE and USMLE Clinical Skills Exams. S D Med. 2019 Oct;72(10):451-453. Majumder MAA, Kumar A, Krishnamurthy K, Ojeh N, Adams OP, Sa B. An evaluative study of objective structured clinical examination (OSCE): students and examiners perspectives. Adv Med Educ Pract. 2019 Jun 5;10:387-397. Karam VY, Park YS, Tekian A, Youssef N. Evaluating the validity evidence of an OSCE: results from a new medical school. BMC Med Educ. 2018 Dec 20;18(1):313.

Ariana M Nelson↗

NASA NTRS1989

NASA/SDIO Space Environmental Effects on Materials Workshop, part 1

The present state of knowledge regarding space environmental effects on materials is described and the knowledge gaps that prevent informed decisions on the best use of advanced materials in space for long-duration NASA and Strategic Defense Initiative Organization (SDIO) missions are identified. Establishing priorities for future ground-based and space-based materials research was a major goal. The end product was an assessment of the current state-of-the-art in space environmental effects on materials in order to develop a national plan for spaceflight experiments.

Teichman, Louis A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Historical Precision of an Ozone Correction Procedure for AMO Solar Cell Calibration

In an effort to improve the accuracy of the high altitude aircraft method for calibration of high band-gap solar cells, the ozone correction procedure has been revisited. The new procedure adjusts the measured short circuit current, Isc, according to satellite based ozone measurements and a model of the atmospheric ozone profile then extrapolates the measurements to air mass zero, AM0. The purpose of this paper is to assess the precision of the revised procedure by applying it to historical data sets. The average Isc of a silicon cell for a flying season increased 0.5% and the standard deviation improved from 0.5% to 0.3% The 12 year average Isc of a GaAs cell increased 1% and the standard deviation improved from 0.8% to 0.5%. The slight increase in measured Isc and improvement in standard deviation suggests that the accuracy of the aircraft method may improve from 1% to nearly 0.5%.

Snyder, David B.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Historical Precision of an Ozone Correction Procedure for AM0 Solar Cell Calibration

In an effort to improve the accuracy of the high altitude aircraft method for calibration of high band-gap solar cells, the ozone correction procedure has been revisited. The new procedure adjusts the measured short circuit current, Isc, according to satellite based ozone measurements and a model of the atmospheric ozone profile then extrapolates the measurements to air mass zero, AMO. The purpose of this paper is to assess the precision of the revised procedure by applying it to historical data sets. The average Isc of a silicon cell for a flying season increased 0.5% and the standard deviation improved from 0.5% to 0.3%. The 12 year average Isc of a GaAs cell increased 1% and the standard deviation improved from 0.8% to 0.5%. The slight increase in measured Isc and improvement in standard deviation suggests that the accuracy of the aircraft method may improve from 1% to nearly 0.5%.

Snyder, David B.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Transition Induced by Fence Geometrics on Shuttle Orbiter at Mach 10

Fence-induced transition data simulating a raised gap filler have been acquired on the wing lower surface of a Shuttle Orbiter model in the Langley 31-Inch Mach 10 Tunnel to compare with the Shuttle Boundary Layer Transition Flight and HYTHIRM Experiments, and to provide additional correlation data for the Boundary Layer Transition Tool. In a qualitative assessment, the data exhibit the expected response to all parameter variations; however, it is unclear whether fully effective tripping at the fence was ever realized at any test condition with the present model hardware. A preliminary, qualitative comparison of the ground-based transition measurements with those obtained from the STS-128 HYTHIRM imagery at Mach 15 reveal similar transition-wake response characteristics in terms of the spreading and the path along the vehicle surface.

Everhart, Joel L.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Modeling of Commercial Turbofan Engine With Ice Crystal Ingestion: Follow-On

The occurrence of ice accretion within commercial high bypass aircraft turbine engines has been reported under certain atmospheric conditions. Engine anomalies have taken place at high altitudes that have been attributed to ice crystal ingestion, partially melting, and ice accretion on the compression system components. The result was degraded engine performance, and one or more of the following: loss of thrust control (roll back), compressor surge or stall, and flameout of the combustor. As ice crystals are ingested into the fan and low pressure compression system, the increase in air temperature causes a portion of the ice crystals to melt. It is hypothesized that this allows the ice-water mixture to cover the metal surfaces of the compressor stationary components which leads to ice accretion through evaporative cooling. Ice accretion causes a blockage which subsequently results in the deterioration in performance of the compressor and engine. The focus of this research is to apply an engine icing computational tool to simulate the flow through a turbofan engine and assess the risk of ice accretion. The tool is comprised of an engine system thermodynamic cycle code, a compressor flow analysis code, and an ice particle melt code that has the capability of determining the rate of sublimation, melting, and evaporation through the compressor flow path, without modeling the actual ice accretion. A commercial turbofan engine which has previously experienced icing events during operation in a high altitude ice crystal environment has been tested in the Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL) altitude test facility at NASA Glenn Research Center. The PSL has the capability to produce a continuous ice cloud which is ingested by the engine during operation over a range of altitude conditions. The PSL test results confirmed that there was ice accretion in the engine due to ice crystal ingestion, at the same simulated altitude operating conditions as experienced previously in flight. The computational tool was utilized to help guide a portion of the PSL testing, and was used to predict ice accretion could also occur at significantly lower altitudes. The predictions were qualitatively verified by subsequent testing of the engine in the PSL. In a previous study, analysis of select PSL test data points helped to calibrate the engine icing computational tool to assess the risk of ice accretion. This current study is a continuation of that data analysis effort. The study focused on tracking the variations in wet bulb temperature and ice particle melt ratio through the engine core flow path. The results from this study have identified trends, while also identifying gaps in understanding as to how the local wet bulb temperature and melt ratio affects the risk of ice accretion and subsequent engine behavior.

Jorgenson, Philip C. E.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Modeling of Commercial Turbofan Engine with Ice Crystal Ingestion; Follow-On

The occurrence of ice accretion within commercial high bypass aircraft turbine engines has been reported under certain atmospheric conditions. Engine anomalies have taken place at high altitudes that have been attributed to ice crystal ingestion, partially melting, and ice accretion on the compression system components. The result was degraded engine performance, and one or more of the following: loss of thrust control (roll back), compressor surge or stall, and flameout of the combustor. As ice crystals are ingested into the fan and low pressure compression system, the increase in air temperature causes a portion of the ice crystals to melt. It is hypothesized that this allows the ice-water mixture to cover the metal surfaces of the compressor stationary components which leads to ice accretion through evaporative cooling. Ice accretion causes a blockage which subsequently results in the deterioration in performance of the compressor and engine. The focus of this research is to apply an engine icing computational tool to simulate the flow through a turbofan engine and assess the risk of ice accretion. The tool is comprised of an engine system thermodynamic cycle code, a compressor flow analysis code, and an ice particle melt code that has the capability of determining the rate of sublimation, melting, and evaporation through the compressor flow path, without modeling the actual ice accretion. A commercial turbofan engine which has previously experienced icing events during operation in a high altitude ice crystal environment has been tested in the Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL) altitude test facility at NASA Glenn Research Center. The PSL has the capability to produce a continuous ice cloud which is ingested by the engine during operation over a range of altitude conditions. The PSL test results confirmed that there was ice accretion in the engine due to ice crystal ingestion, at the same simulated altitude operating conditions as experienced previously in flight. The computational tool was utilized to help guide a portion of the PSL testing, and was used to predict ice accretion could also occur at significantly lower altitudes. The predictions were qualitatively verified by subsequent testing of the engine in the PSL. In a previous study, analysis of select PSL test data points helped to calibrate the engine icing computational tool to assess the risk of ice accretion. This current study is a continuation of that data analysis effort. The study focused on tracking the variations in wet bulb temperature and ice particle melt ratio through the engine core flow path. The results from this study have identified trends, while also identifying gaps in understanding as to how the local wet bulb temperature and melt ratio affects the risk of ice accretion and subsequent engine behavior.

Jorgenson, Philip C. E.↗

NASA NTRS2018

NASA ACC High Energy Dynamic Impact Methodology and Outcomes

High fidelity analysis methods known as Progressive Damage Analysis (PDA) methods, capable of reliably predicting the onset and progression of damage in composite materials, are being developed for HEDI event simulation. Four state-of-the-art PDA methods are being investigated: LS-DYNA MAT162, LS-DYNA MAT261, Smooth-Particle Galerkin (SPG), and EMU Peridynamics. Validation of these PDA models aims to follow a building block approach, starting with coupon- and component-level development. As part of the overall effort, material characterization testing was performed to bridge gaps between existing experimental data and the material property inputs required to predict ballistic impact behavior at the component-level. The material models were updated with the results of the coupon-level testing and were then used to predict panel behavior and damage in ballistic impact events. To assess the accuracy of the PDA methods, these pre-test predictions were compared to the results of ballistic impact testing.

Hunziker, Kenneth J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Segmented Solid Surface Reflector Concentrically Stacked With Tubular Shape Memory Composite Hinges

A new architecture for solid surface reflector antennas scalable to sizes greater than 10 m is presented. The design uses compact, light, and simple advanced deployable structures to create sub-reflectors that can be assembled in space into larger units using a robotic arm. The seven-panel hexagonal sub-reflector is divided into hexagonal panels that stack concentrically and vertically. The central panel is connected to each side panel on the back side by a pair of tubular shape memory composite hinges that enable the required deployment kinematics with controlled dynamics. A secondary mechanism closes the interpanel gap. The focus of the paper is on the development of the sub-reflector elements, namely the tubular hinges that use embedded heaters and sensors for triggering and control, the actuation mechanisms, and the lightweight sandwich construction reflector panels. A parametric study using finite element analyses was conducted to assess how design features of the hinge affect its stowage and deployment dynamics. The preliminary component fabrication and testing results for the two-panel assembly breadboard model are outlined. Finally, the results of the test campaign with the brassboard reflector model are presented. A comparison of deployed reflector surface deviation between the measured surface after the stowage and deployment process and the pre-test scans and the nominal surface revealed root mean square errors of less than 1 mm, as required by X-band radiofrequency transmission.

gravity offloading↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Segmented Hexagonal Antenna Reflector Concentrically Stacked Using Shape Memory Composite Tubular Hinges

A new architecture for solid surface reflector antennas scalable to sizes greater than 10 m is presented. The design uses compact, light, and simple advanced deployable structures to create sub-reflectors that can be assembled in space into larger units using a robotic arm. The seven-panel hexagonal sub-reflector is divided into hexagonal panels that stack concentrically and vertically. The central panel is connected to each side panel on the back side by a pair of tubular shape memory composite hinges that enable the required deployment kinematics with controlled dynamics. A secondary mechanism closes the interpanel gap. The focus of the paper is on the development of the sub-reflector elements, namely the tubular hinges that use embedded heaters and sensors for triggering and control, the actuation mechanisms, and the lightweight sandwich construction reflector panels. A parametric study using finite element analyses was conducted to assess how design features of the hinge affect its stowage and deployment dynamics. The preliminary component fabrication and testing results for the two-panel assembly breadboard model are outlined. Finally, the results of the test campaign with the brassboard reflector model are presented. A comparison of deployed reflector surface deviation between the measured surface after the stowage and deployment process and the pre-test scans and the nominal surface revealed root mean square errors of less than 1 mm, as required by X-band radiofrequency transmission.

gravity offloading methods↗

DOE OSTI2023

Developing Methods to Assess Changes in Mechanical Properties of Shale Modified by Engineered Mineral Precipitation

Fractures in subsurface shale formations serve multiple purposes, for example, in the recovery of resources in hydraulic fracturing or as potential harmful leakage passages through caprocks that may contribute undesired fluids to the atmosphere or functional groundwater aquifers. A proposed method to seal or influence fracture properties is Ureolysis-Induced Calcium Carbonate Precipitation (UICP), a bio-mineralization technology driven by the enzymatic hydrolysis of urea, resulting in the formation of calcium carbonate. Sporosarcina pasteurii is a common microbe used as the source of the urease enzyme that catalyzes the chemical reaction. The resulting calcium carbonate can bridge the gaps in fractured shale and reduce fluid flow through fractures. However, there is little information on how this process affects the mechanical properties of the resulting biomineralized shale. This study represents the first step toward determining the influence of UICP treatment on shale material and its subsequent mechanical strength properties. This methods development study aims to determine the effect that temperature has on the tensile strength of intact, unfractured shale cores (2.54 cm (1 in) diameter, 5.08 cm (2 in) long). Tensile strength was determined indirectly using a modified Brazilian test where the splitting tensile strength is attained by applying a compressive load onto the core. Shale cores from Eagle Ford and Wolfcamp formations were tested at both room temperature and 60°C to determine if increased temperature influences the tensile strength of the rock. This data will help to assess the necessity of testing biomineralized cores at temperature. Though 60°C may not mimic subsurface temperatures of the shales used in this study, it was chosen due to limitations of the UICP process while still approaching temperatures of shale formations. This project aims to evaluate what effect temperature has on the mechanical properties of intact shale cores so that engineered or natural rock fractures that are sealed by biomineralization can be better understood.

Bedey, Kayla↗

DOE OSTI2021

Assessment of the driving factors of CO 2 mitigation costs of household biogas systems in China: A LMDI decomposition with cost analysis model

China has been placing a substantial focus on biogas for reducing energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. The operation mode of biogas systems may make the CO 2 reduction target over-optimistic. There is limited research to investigate the influential factors that may be causing the gap between the actual and theoretical CO 2 reduction costs of biogas systems in China. In this research, by using field survey data of 209 biogas users and 489 non-biogas users from 19 villages in 2015, the gap between actual and theoretical unit CO 2 reduction cost is quantified at approximately 156 USD/t CO 2 . By employing the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index I (LMDI) model, it is found that both the cost effect (48%) and the reduction effect (52%) contribute to the unit CO 2 reduction cost gap. Furthermore, four influential factors–household labor, accessibility to the energy resource, acceptance of biogas technology, and subsidy–significantly narrow the gap between actual and theoretical CO 2 reduction costs, while the levelized subsidy contributes to widening the gap. On average, biogas systems should be operated for at least four years and the substitution rate should be more than 67% in order to keep the gap between actual and theoretical CO 2 reduction costs under 50%.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2000

Multi-Disciplinary Design Optimization Using WAVE

The current preliminary design tools lack the product performance, quality and cost prediction fidelity required to design Six Sigma products. They are also frequently incompatible with the tools used in detailed design, leading to a great deal of rework and lost or discarded data in the transition from preliminary to detailed design. Thus, enhanced preliminary design tools are needed in order to produce adequate financial returns to the business. To achieve this goal, GEAE has focused on building the preliminary design system around the same geometric 3D solid model that will be used in detailed design. With this approach, the preliminary designer will no longer convert a flowpath sketch into an engine cross section but rather, automatically create 3D solid geometry for structural integrity, life, weight, cost, complexity, producibility, and maintainability assessments. Likewise, both the preliminary design and the detailed design can benefit from the use of the same preliminary part sizing routines. The design analysis tools will also be integrated with the 3D solid model to eliminate manual transfer of data between programs. GEAE has aggressively pursued the computerized control of engineering knowledge for many years. Through its study and validation of 3D CAD programs and processes, GEAE concluded that total system control was not feasible at that time. Prior CAD tools focused exclusively on detail part geometry and Knowledge Based Engineering systems concentrated on rules input and data output. A system was needed to bridge the gap between the two to capture the total system. With the introduction of WAVE Engineering from UGS, the possibilities of an engineering system control device began to formulate. GEAE decided to investigate the new WAVE functionality to accomplish this task. NASA joined GEAE in funding this validation project through Task Order No. 1. With the validation project complete, the second phase under Task Order No. 2 was established to develop an associative control structure (framework) in the UG WAVE environment enabling multi-disciplinary design of turbine propulsion systems. The capabilities of WAVE were evaluated to assess its use as a rapid optimization and productivity tool. This project also identified future WAVE product enhancements that will make the tool still more beneficial for product development.

Irwin, Keith↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data for Clumping Index Estimation With 30°-tilted Cameras in Row Crops: Evaluation of Methods and Segment Size Effects

The clumping index (CI) quantifies the spatial distribution of foliage elements and is essential for accurately estimating the plant area index (PAI), canopy radiative transfer, and photosynthesis. Traditionally, the finite-length averaging method (LX), the gap size distribution method (CC), and a combined approach of CC and LX (CLX) have been applied to instruments like TRAC and digital hemispherical photography to estimate CI. However, a comprehensive evaluation of these methods in row crops remains limited, especially regarding the influence of segment size on CI. Meanwhile, digital cameras offer a cost-effective and user-friendly solution for canopy measurements in row crops, yet their application in this context remains underexplored. In this study, we employed a new approach using a 30°-tilted digital camera to estimate CI in corn and soybean fields, applying the LX, CC, and CLX methods. We systematically assessed the performance of these three methods by combining field measurements in real-world fields with simulations using the LESS 3D radiative transfer model. Our results showed that CLX applied to the whole image and 45° segment offered accurate estimation of CI (bias within ±0.1, RMSE < 0.2) and PAI (bias within ±0.4, RMSE < 1) in real-world fields and LESS simulations. The accuracy of the LX method was highly sensitive to segment size, with the best performance observed at the 15° segment (PAI bias within ±0.4). In contrast, the CC method remained stable across different segment sizes, and its performance was generally comparable to that of LX, except at the 15° segment. Across view zenith angles, CI derived from CC generally showed a continuous increase, while those from LX and CLX followed a rising trend at small zenith angles but began to decline at 68°, likely due to an increasing proportion of no-gap segments. Seasonally, LX tended to show decreasing CI during early growth stages but increased as the canopy matured, whereas CC and CLX showed gradually increasing CI before plateauing at peak PAI. The 30°-tilted camera effectively captured CI variations across different angles and growth stages, making it a practical and robust instrument for row crop canopy structure analysis. Applying these CI methods to digital cameras offers a low-cost and accessible CI estimation alternative, improving canopy structure monitoring accuracy in row crops.

Modeling↗

DOE OSTI2024

Decomposing a renewable energy design and dispatch model

We address a mixed-integer linear programming model which selects a cost-minimizing set of available technologies with which to design a renewable energy system and prescribe their associated dispatch decisions. Realistically sized instances of such models pose computational challenges. To this end, we develop a Lagrangian heuristic based on a decomposition methodology which partitions the model into blocks and optimizes these more manageable, smaller subproblems. It also provides a lower bound to assess solution quality. In conclusion, we apply this methodology to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Renewable Energy Integration and Optimization (REopt TM ) model to generate near-optimal solutions to realistic instances containing, on average, approximately 300,000 variables and at least as many constraints, with a mean 30% optimality gap improvement using a five-minute solution time limit, compared to directly solving the original monolith.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

High-throughput computation of electric polarization in solids via Berry flux diagonalization

Electric polarization in the absence of an externally applied electric field is a key property of polar materials, but the standard interpolation-based ab initio approach to compute polarization differences within the modern theory of polarization presents challenges for automated high-throughput calculations. Berry flux diagonalization [J. Bonini et al., Phys. Rev. B 102, 045141 (2020)] has been proposed as an efficient and reliable alternative, though it has yet to be widely deployed. Here, we assess Berry flux diagonalization using ab initio calculations of a large set of materials, introducing and validating heuristics that ensure branch alignment with a minimal number of intermediate interpolated structures. Our automated implementation of Berry flux diagonalization succeeds in cases where prior interpolation-based workflows fail due to band-gap closures or branch ambiguities. Benchmarking with ab initio calculations of 176 candidate ferroelectrics, we demonstrate the efficacy of the approach on a broad range of insulating materials and obtain accurate effective polarization values with fewer interpolated structures than prior automated interpolation-based workflows. Our real-space heuristics that can predict gauge stability a priori from ionic displacements enable a general automated framework for reliable polarization calculations and efficient high-throughput screening of chemically and structurally diverse polar insulators. These results establish Berry flux diagonalization as a robust and efficient method to compute the effective polarization of solids and to accelerate the data-driven discovery of functional polar materials.

Poteshman, Abigail N. [University of Chicago, IL (↗

DOE OSTI2022

Warming Pattern over the Northern Hemisphere Midlatitudes in Boreal Summer 1979–2020

Abstract Significant surface air temperature warming during summer 1979–2020 is not uniformly distributed in the northern midlatitudes over land but rather is confined to several longitudinal sectors including Europe, central Siberia and Mongolia, and both coasts of North America. These hot spots are accompanied by a chain of high pressure ridges from an anomalous, circumglobal Rossby wave train in the upper troposphere. From reanalysis data and several baseline experiments from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we find that the circulation trend pattern is associated with fluctuations of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and the interdecadal Pacific oscillation. The phase shift of AMV in the 1990s is particularly noteworthy for accelerating warming averaged over the northern midlatitude land. The amplitude of the observed trend in both surface air temperature and the upper-level geopotential height generally falls beyond the range of multidecadal trends simulated by the CMIP6 preindustrial control runs, supporting the likelihood that anthropogenic forcing played a critical role in the observed trend. On the other hand, the fidelity of the simulated low-frequency modes of variability and their teleconnections, especially on multidecadal time scales, is difficult to assess because of the relatively short observational records. Our mechanistic modeling results indicate that synoptic eddy–mean flow interaction is a key to the formation of the anomalous wave train but how the multidecadal modes can modulate the synoptic eddies through atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions remains poorly understood. This gap in our knowledge makes it challenging to quantify the roles of the low-frequency modes and external forcings in causing the observed multidecadal trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗