Multi-Satellite Measurements and Model Predictions of Mesospheric and Upper Stratospheric Influences from the Very Large July 14-16, 2000, Solar Proton Event
A large solar flare with an associated coronal mass ejection occurred in mid-July and caused a very large solar proton event at the earth in the time period July 14-16, 2000. So far this is the largest solar storm of solar cycle 23. The solar proton fluxes were measured by instruments aboard the GOES-10 satellite and used in our proton energy deposition model to help quantify the energy input to the middle atmosphere during this large solar event. Using this computed energy deposition in the GSFC 2D atmospheric model resulted in a prediction of $>$ 20\% increases in HO$-(x)$ (H, OH, HO$-(2)$) and $>$ 100\% increases in NO$-(x)$ (N, NO, NO$-(2)$) constituents in the mesosphere and upper stratosphere at polar latitudes ($>$ 60 degrees geomagnetic). Both the HO$-(x)$ and NO$_fx)$ increases impacted ozone. Large atmospheric impacts have been measured with the NOAA 14 SBUV/2 instrument (0$_(3)$), the UARS HALOE instrument (NO, NO$-(2)$, 0$-(3)$), and the POAM III instrument (0$_{3}$, NO$-(2)$). Preliminary analysis indicates that measured (SBUV/2) and modelled 0$_{3}$ decreases from this solar event are generally in agreement in the Northern Hemisphere. Short-term ozone changes (during the event) indicate $\sim$ 15% reduction at 2 hPa ($\sim$ 45 km) up to $\sim$ 40% reduction at 0.5 hPa ($\sim$ 55 km). A longer-term ozone depletion of $\sim$ 5% is indicated between 4 and 2 hPa ($\sim$ 40-45 km). The middle atmospheric changes caused by this solar event were very large and occurred fairly quickly ($\sim$ 1-2 days). Such a significant natural perturbation provides a good test of our understanding of the middle atmosphere. The measured and modelled impacts of this solar event will be compared and discussed in this paper.