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NASA NTRS2002

Study of Extra-Solar Planets with the Advanced Fiber Optic Echelle

This is the final report of NASA Grant NAG5-7505, for 'Study of Extra-solar Planets with the Advanced Fiber Optic Echelle'. This program was funded in response to our proposal submitted under NASA NRA 97-OSS-06, with a total period of performance from June 1, 1998 through Feb 28 2002. Principal Investigator is Robert W. Noyes; co-Investigators are Sylvain G. Korzennik (SAO), Peter Niserison (SAO), and Timothy M. Brown (High Altitude Observatory). Since the start of this program we have carried out more than 30 observing runs, typically of 5 to 7 days duration. We obtained a total of around 2000 usable observations of about 150 stars, where a typical observation consists of 3 exposures of 10 minutes each. Using this data base we detected thc two additional planetary companions to the star Upsilon Andromedae. This detection was made independently of, and essentially simultaneously with, a similar detection by the Berkeley group (Marcy et al): the fact that two data sets were completely independent and gave essentially the same orbital parameters for this three-planet system gave a strong confirmation of this important result. We also extended our previous detection of the planet orbiting Rho Coronae Borealis to get a better determination of its orbital eccentricity: e=0.13 +/- 0.05. We detected a new planet in orbit around the star HD 89744, with orbital period 256 days, semi-major axis 0.88 AU, eccentricity 0.70, and minimum mass m sini = 7.2 m(sub Jup). This discovery is significant because of the very high orbital eccentricity, arid also because HD 89744 has both high metallicity [Fe/H] and at the same time a low [C/Fe] abundance ratio.

Noyes, Robert W.↗
NASA NTRS2003

The Star Formation History of Orion and its Environs

During the period of performance, we have obtained the following observations and carried out the analysis of the Orion associations itemized below. Optical Photometry: The Quest camera that had been damaged by lightning on Sept. 2001 was reconfigured to use 10 chips and only 3 filters instead of the original 4 but retaining its spatial coverage of 2.3deg wide in declination. During the Winter and Fall 2002 observing campaigns, we obtained multifilter photometry using the Quest camera on the 1mt Schmidt of the Venezuelan National Observatory, to continue the survey of the Orion clouds. In the Winter 2002 season, we obtained photometry for 10 scans at DEC=+5, 7 scans at DEC=-5. Several additional scans at DEC=-3 were obtained during the Fall 2002 observing campaign. Slit spectroscopy of bright candidates: During 2002 spectra for some 235 candidate PMS stars were obtained with the FAST spectrograph at the SAO 1.5m telescope in Mt. Hopkins. These objects, all brighter than V=16, are located in two strips centered at DEC=+l and -5, and spanning from RA=5h-6h. The spectra are being analyzed. Multifiber spectroscopy: Spectroscopy for our fainter (V less than or equal to 16) candidates has not kept pace with our spectroscopy of brighter candidates, because of the delay in the commissioning of the Hectospec and Hectoechelle multi-object spectrographs at the new 6.5m MMT. We obtained some data with the Hydra spectrograph on the WIYN telescope: Feb 1-4, 2002. Time granted to the project: "A Large Scale Survey of the Low-Mass Young Population in the Orion OB1 Association" (P.I.: C. Briceno). Three half-nights (we used the first half of the night, the second half of the night was used with the Mini-Mosaic imager by another team). Only the first half night was clear. We observed 3 fields centered in a 2.3 deg wide strip centered at DEC=-1 and spanning RA=Sh to 6h. A total of 250 spectra were obtained for the same number of candidate PMS stars. Nov. 13-15, 2002. Time granted to the project "Cluster survey of protoplanetary disk evolution", (P.I.: A. Sicilia-Aguilar). Clear weather throughout. We obtained spectra for some 200 candidate PMS stars in 3 fields located in a 2.3 deg wide strip centered at DEC=+l and spanning from RA=5h20m to 5h35m. Data for both observing runs is partially reduced and is being analyzed. U photometry: During Nov.29-Dec.4, 2002 we were granted time with the 4-shooter CCD Mosaic Camera at the SAO 1.2m telescope, to obtain U-band photometry of a subset of the newly identified T Tauri stars in the strip centered at DEC=-1. This sample is composed of strong H(alpha) emitting PMS stars (Classical T Tauri stars) located mostly in the Orion OB lb association, around the Orion Belt area. Our data will be combined with our calibration of the U-band excess (Gullbring et al. 1998) to derive mass accretion rates. Because of bad weather we observed only 20 stars during 1.5 clear nights. Near IR photometry: During Dec. 14-19, 2002 we used the IR Camera on the SAO 1.2m telescope, to obtain L-band photometry of a set of 17 the newly identified Orion OB 1a and 1b stars, in order to look for IR excess emission coming from the hotter inner parts of circumstellar disks. Again, mediocre weather prevented a larger set to be observed. These stars were also observed with the OSCIR mid-IR camera on Gemini North during later 2001. Our goal is to construct SEDs from the visual out to the mid-IR (by combining our optical/IR data with 2MASS JHK magnitudes) in order to explore disk dissipation at the critical ages of 5-10 Myr spanned by these stars.

Calvet, Nuria↗
NASA NTRS2004

Identification and Control of Gravity Related Defect Formation During Melt Growth of Electro-Optic Single Crystals Bismuth Silicate(Bi12SiO20)

A research carried out under Award Number NAG8-1487 was aimed at to the design, conduct and analysis of experiments directed at the identification and control of gravitational effects on crystal growth, segregation and defect formation in the Sillenite system: bismuth silicate (Bi(12)SiO(20)). Correlation analyses was conducted in order to establish the influence of gravity related defects introduced during crystal growth on critical, application specific properties. Achievement of the states objective was conducted during the period from Feb. 01, 1998 to Dec. 31, 2003 with the following anticipated milestones: 1. Establishment of capabilities for (a) reproducible Czochralski and Bridgman-type growth of BSO single crystals and (b) for comprehensive analysis of crystalline and chemical defects as well as for selective property characterization of grown crystals (year 1). 2. Design and execution of critical space growth experiment(s) based on analyses of prefatory space results (experiments aimed at establishing the viability of planned approaches and procedures) and on unresolved issues related to growth, segregation and defect formation associated with conventional growth in Bridgman geometries. Comparative analysis of growth under conventional and under mu-g conditions; identification of gravity related defect formation during conventional Bridgman growth and formulation of approaches for their control (years 2 and 3). Development of charge confinement system which permits growth interface demarcation (in a mu-g environment) as well as minimization of confinement related stress and contamination during growth; design of complementary mu-g growth experiments aimed at quantitative mu-g growth and segregation analyses (year 4). 3. Conduct of quantitative mu-g growth experiments directed at: (a) identification and control of gravity related crystalline and chemical defect formation during single crystal growth of Bi(12)SiO(20) and at (b) defect engineering -the development of approaches to the controlled generation during crystal growth of specified point defects in homogeneous distribution (year 5). The proposed research places focus on a class of materials which have outstanding electrical and optical properties but have so far failed to reach their potential, primarily because of our inability to control adequately their stoichiometry and crystal defect formation as well as confinement related contamination and lattice stress.

Becia, Piotr↗
NASA NTRS2004

Deciphering the X-ray Emission of the Nearest Herbig Ae Star

In this research program, we obtained and analyzed an X-ray observation of the young nearby intermediate mass pre-main sequence star HD 104237 using the XMM-Newton space-based observatory. The observation was obtained on 17 Feb. 2002. This observation yielded high-quality X-ray images, spectra, and timing data which provided valuable information on the physical processes responsible for the X-ray emission. This star is a member of the group of so-called Herbig Ae/Be stars, which are young intermediate mass (approx. 2 - 4 solar masses) pre-main sequence (PMS) stars a few million years old that have not yet begun core hydrogen burning. The objective of the XMM-Newton observation was to obtain higher quality data than previously available in order to constrain possible X-ray emission mechanisms. The origin of the X-ray emission from Herbig Ae/Be stars is not yet known. These intermediate mass PMS stars lie on radiative tracks and are not expected to emit X-rays via solar-like magnetic processes, nor are their winds powerful enough to produce X-rays by radiative wind shocks as in more massive O-type stars. The emission could originate in unseen low-mass companions, or it may be intrinsic to the Herbig stars themselves if they still have primordial magnetic fields or can sustain magnetic activity via a nonsolar dynamo.

Skinner, Stephen L.↗
NASA NTRS2004

OVOC (Oxygenated Volatile Organic Chemicals) in the Global Atmosphere: Atmospheric Budgets, Oceanic Concentrations, and Uncertainties

Airborne measurements of oxygenated volatile organic chemicals (OVOC), OH free radicals, and tracers of pollution were performed over the Pacific during Winter/Spring of 2001. Large concentrations of OVOC are present in the global troposphere and are expected to play an important role in atmospheric chemistry. Their total abundance (SIGMAOVOC) was nearly twice that of non-methane hydrocarbons (SIGMAC2-C8 NMHC). Throughout the troposphere, the OH reactivity of OVOC is comparable to that of methane and far exceeds that of NHMC. A comparison of these data with western Pacific observations collected some seven years earlier (Feb.-March, 1994) did not reveal significant differences. Analysis of the relative enhancement of selected OVOC with respect to CH3Cl and CO in twelve plumes originating from fires and sampled in the free troposphere (3-11 km) is used to assess their primary and secondary emissions from biomass combustion. The composition of these plumes also indicates a large shift of reactive nitrogen into the PAN reservoir thereby limiting ozone formation. These data are combined with other observations and interpreted with the help of a global 3-D model to assess OVOC global sources and sinks. We further interpret atmospheric observations with the help of an air-sea exchange model io show that oceans can be both net so~rces and sinks. An extremely large oceanic reservoir of OVOC, that exceeds the atmospheric reservoir by more than an order of magnitude, can be inferred to be present. We conclude that OVOC sources are extremely large (150-500 TgC y-1) but remain poorly quantified. In many cases, measured concentrations are uncertain and incompatible with our present knowledge of atmospheric chemistry. Results based on observations from several field studies and critical gaps will be discussed.

Singh, Hanwant B.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Structure of an anti-HIV-1 hammerhead ribozyme complex with a 17-mer DNA substrate analog of HIV-1 gag RNA and a mechanism for the cleavage reaction: 750 MHz NMR and computer experiments

The structure of an anti-HIV-1 ribozyme-DNA abortive substrate complex was investigated by 750 MHz NMR and computer modeling experiments. The ribozyme was a chimeric molecule with 30 residues-18 DNA nucleotides, and 12 RNA residues in the conserved core. The DNA substrate analog had 17 residues. The chimeric ribozyme and the DNA substrate formed a shortened ribozyme-abortive substrate complex of 47 nucleotides with two DNA stems (stems I and III) and a loop consisting of the conserved core residues. Circular dichroism spectra showed that the DNA stems assume A-family conformation at the NMR concentration and a temperature of 15 degrees C, contrary to the conventional wisdom that DNA duplexes in aqueous solution populate entirely in the B-form. It is proposed that the A-family RNA residues at the core expand the A-family initiated at the core into the DNA stems because of the large free energy requirement for the formation of A/B junctions. Assignments of the base H8/H6 protons and H1' of the 47 residues were made by a NOESY walk. In addition to the methyl groups of all T's, the imino resonances of stems I and III and AH2's were assigned from appropriate NOESY walks. The extracted NMR data along with available crystallographic data, were used to derive a structural model of the complex. Stems I and III of the final model displayed a remarkable similarity to the A form of DNA; in stem III, a GC base pair was found to be moving into the floor of the minor groove defined by flanking AT pairs; data suggest the formation of a buckled rhombic structure with the adjacent pair; in addition, the base pair at the interface of stem III and the loop region displayed deformed geometry. The loop with the catalytic core, and the immediate region of the stems displayed conformational multiplicity within the NMR time scale. A catalytic mechanism for ribozyme action based on the derived structure, and consistent with biochemical data in the literature, is proposed. The complex between the anti HIV-1 gag ribozyme and its abortive DNA substrate manifests in the detection of a continuous track of A.T base pairs; this suggests that the interaction between the ribozyme and its DNA substrate is stronger than the one observed in the case of the free ribozyme where the bases in stem I and stem III regions interact strongly with the ribozyme core region (Sarma, R. H., et al. FEBS Letters 375, 317-23, 1995). The complex formation provides certain guidelines in the design of suitable therapeutic ribozymes. If the residues in the ribozyme stem regions interact with the conserved core, it may either prevent or interfere with the formation of a catalytically active tertiary structure.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗
NASA NTRS2004

A Multi-Wavelength Study of the X-Ray Sources in the NGC 5018

The E3 giant elliptical galaxy NGC-5018 was observed with the cxo X-ray Observatory's Advanced CCD Imaging Spectrometer for 30-h on 14 April 2001. Results of analysis of these X-ray data as well as of complementary optical, infrared, and radio data are reported. Seven X-ray point sources, including the nucleus, were detected. If they are intrinsic to NGC-5018, then all six non-nuclear sources have luminosities exceeding 10(exp 39)-ergl in the 0.5-8.0-keV energy band; placing them in the class of Ultra- luminous X-ray sources. Comparison of X-ray source positions to archival Hubble Space Telescope/Wide Field Planetary Camera 2 (hst/WFPC2) images reveal four of the six non-nuclear sources are spatially--coincident with bright, M$(sub V)LA -8.6 mag, objects. These four objects have optical magnitudes and (V-I) colors consistent with globular clusters in NGC-5018. However, one of these objects was observed to vary by siml mag in both V and I between observations taken 28 July 1997 and 04 Feb 1999 indicating this source is a background active galactic nucleus (AGN). The nature of the other three optically-bright objects cannot be determined from the available optical data but all have X-ray-to-optical flux ratios consistent with background AGNs. Strong, unpolarized, radio emission has been detected from another of the optically-bright counterparts. It displays an inverted radio spectrum and is the most absorbed of the seven sources in the X-ray band. It, too, is most readily explained as a background AGN, though alternative explanations cannot be ruled out. Extended X-ray emission is detected within a siml5 arcsec radius of the galaxy center at a luminosity of sim lO(exp 40)-ergl in the X-ray band. Its thermal X-ray spectrum (kT sim0.4-keV) and its spatial coincidence with strong H(alpha) emission are consistent with a hot gas origin. The nucleus itself is a weak X-ray source, LA-5 times 10(exp 39)-ergl, but displays a radio spectrum typical of AGN.

Ghosh, Kajal K.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Simultaneous Multiwavelength Monitoring of 3C66A

The radio-selected BL Lac object 3C66A was the target of an intensive multiwavelength campaign from Sept. 2003 through Feb. 2004. It was monitored by the Whole Earth Blazar Telescope (WEBT) collaboration, in tandem with 20 X-ray monitoring observations by the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE), VHE gamma-ray observations by STACEE and VERITAS, and long-term monitoring at radio frequencies. In addition. 9 observations using the VLBA are being carried out during the campaign and throughout the year 2004 to follow possible structural changes of the source. 21 pointings with RXTE during the period Sept. 15 - Dec. 27, 2003. All collected data have been fully analyzed, and first results have already been published at the 8th HEAD Meeting in New Orleans, LA, in Sept. 2004, and will also be presented at the 205th AAS Meeting in San Diego, CA, in Jan. 2005. A first Journal paper, to be submitted to the Astrophysical Journal, is currently in preparation, and we plan to have it ready for submission in January 2005. A gradual brightening of the source over the course of the campaign was observed at all optical frequencies, culminating in a very bright flare at the end of January 2004. Optical light curves indicate intraday microvariability on time scales down to about 1.3 hours. No significant color-magnitude correlation for the entire data set was evident, but there is a slight indication of a gradual spectral softening in the optical over the entire duration of multi-day outbursts (in both the rising and decaying phase). The X-ray spectrum is consistent with a power-law with a photon spectral index of approx. 2.1, indicating that the RXTE energy band might be located right at the intersection of the synchrotron and the high-energy emission components. No significant flux or spectral variability at X-ray energies was detected, though there seems to be a trend of very modest brightening in tandem with the optical flux. The first 4 VLBA epochs indicate a rather smooth jet with only very moderate internal structure. After decomposition in Gaussian components, evidence for superluminal motion (11.0+/-4.7/h c) was found in only one out of 6 jet components. The radial radio brightness profile suggests a magnetic field decay infinity/r and, thus, a predominantly perpendicular magnetic field orientation.

Boettcher, M.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Local Scale Radiobrightness Modeling During the Intensive Observing Period-4 of the Cold Land Processes Experiment-1

The NASA Cold Land Processes Field Experiment (CLPX-1) was designed to provide microwave remote sensing observations and ground truth for studies of snow and frozen ground remote sensing, particularly issues related to scaling. CLPX-1 was conducted in 2002 and 2003 in Colorado, USA. One of the goals of the experiment was to test the capabilities of microwave emission models at different scales. Initial forward model validation work has concentrated on the Local-Scale Observation Site (LSOS), a 0.8 ha study site consisting of open meadows separated by trees where the most detailed measurements were made of snow depth and temperature, density, and grain size profiles. Results obtained in the case of the 3& Intensive Observing Period (IOP3) period (Feb., 2003, dry snow) suggest that a model based on Dense Medium Radiative Transfer (DMRT) theory is able to model the recorded brightness temperatures using snow parameters derived from field measurements. This paper focuses on the ability of forward DMRT modelling, combined with snowpack measurements, to reproduce the radiobrightness signatures observed by the University of Michigan s Truck-Mounted Radiometer System (TMRS) at 19 and 37 GHz during the 4th IOP (IOP4) in March, 2003. Unlike IOP3, conditions during IOP4 include both wet and dry periods, providing a valuable test of DMRT model performance. In addition, a comparison will be made for the one day of coincident observations by the University of Tokyo's Ground-Based Microwave Radiometer-7 (GBMR-7) and the TMRS. The plot-scale study in this paper establishes a baseline of DMRT performance for later studies at successively larger scales. And these scaling studies will help guide the choice of future snow retrieval algorithms and the design of future Cold Lands observing systems.

Kim, Edward J.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Multi-Tasking: First Shuttle Mission Since Columbia Combines Test Flight, Catch-Up ISS Supply and Maintenance

NASA's space shuttle fleet is nearing its return to flight with a complex mission on board Discovery that will combine tests of new hardware and procedures adopted in the wake of Columbia's loss with urgent repairs and resupply for the International Space Station. A seven-member astronaut crew has trained throughout most of the two-year hiatus in shuttle operations for the 13-day mission, shooting for a three-week launch window that opens May 15. The window, and much else about the STS-114 mission, is constrained by NASA's need to ensure it has fixed the ascent/debris problem that doomed Columbia and its crew as they attempted to reenter the atmosphere on Feb. 1, 2003. The window was selected so Discovery's ascent can be photographed in daylight with 107 different ground- and aircraft-based cameras to monitor the redesigned external tank for debris shedding. Fixed cameras and the shuttle crew will also photograph the tank in space after it has been jettisoned.

Morring, Frank, Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Swift-BAT: The First Year of Gamma-Ray Burst Detections

The Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) on the Swift has been detecting gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) since Dec. 17,2004 and automated burst alerts have been distributed since Feb. 14,2005. Since commissioning the BAT has triggered on more than 100 GRBs, nearly all of which have been followed up by the narrow-field instruments on Swift through automatic repointing, and by ground and other satellite telescopes after rapid notification. Within seconds of a trigger the BAT produces and relays to the ground a position good to three arc minutes and a four channel light curve. A full ten minutes of event data follows on subsequent ground station passes. The burst archive has allowed us to determine ensemble burst parameters such as fluence, peak flux and duration. An overview of the properties of BAT bursts and BAT'S performance as a burst monitor will be presented in this talk. BAT is a coded aperture imaging system with a wide (approx.2 sr) field of view consisting of a large coded mask located 1 m above a 5200 cm2 array of 32.768 CdZnTe detectors. All electronics and other hardware systems on the BAT have been operating well since commissioning and there is no sign of any degradation on orbit. The flight and ground software have proven similarly robust and allow the real time localization of all bursts and the rapid derivation of burst light curves, spectra and spectral fits on the ground.

Krimm, Hans A.↗
NASA NTRS1996

The Distant Tail Behavior During High Speed Solar Wind Streams and Magnetic Storms

We have examined the ISEE-3 distant tail data during three intense (Dst< -100(sub n)T) magnetic storms and have identified the tail response to high speed solar wind streams, interplanetary magnetic clouds, and near-Earth storms. The three storms have a peak Dst ranging from -150 to -220 nT, and occur on Jan. 9, Feb. 4, and Aug. 8, 1993.

ISEE-3 solar wind streams solar wind magnetic clou↗
NASA NTRS1995

Are the Leonid Meteor Storms Coming?

On Nov. 17, 1996 an extraordinary Leonid meteor storm (144,000 per hour) was witnessed by observers in central and western United States. With an orbital period of 33 years, the next return to perihelion will be Feb. 28, 1998. Because the distribution of the particles flying in formation with the parent comet is poorly known, no secure predictions can be made for Leonid meteor storms in the coming years.

Comets Astronomy Leonid Meteor Storms Leo↗
NASA NTRS2007

Evaluation of the Potential of NASA Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis in Global Landslide Hazard Assessment

Landslides are one of the most widespread natural hazards on Earth, responsible for thousands of deaths and billions of dollars in property damage every year. In the U.S. alone landslides occur in every state, causing an estimated $2 billion in damage and 25- 50 deaths each year. Annual average loss of life from landslide hazards in Japan is 170. The situation is much worse in developing countries and remote mountainous regions due to lack of financial resources and inadequate disaster management ability. Recently, a landslide buried an entire village on the Philippines Island of Leyte on Feb 17,2006, with at least 1800 reported deaths and only 3 houses left standing of the original 300. Intense storms with high-intensity , long-duration rainfall have great potential to trigger rapidly moving landslides, resulting in casualties and property damage across the world. In recent years, through the availability of remotely sensed datasets, it has become possible to conduct global-scale landslide hazard assessment. This paper evaluates the potential of the real-time NASA TRMM-based Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) system to advance our understanding of and predictive ability for rainfall-triggered landslides. Early results show that the landslide occurrences are closely associated with the spatial patterns and temporal distribution of rainfall characteristics. Particularly, the number of landslide occurrences and the relative importance of rainfall in triggering landslides rely on the influence of rainfall attributes [e.g. rainfall climatology, antecedent rainfall accumulation, and intensity-duration of rainstorms). TMPA precipitation data are available in both real-time and post-real-time versions, which are useful to assess the location and timing of rainfall-triggered landslide hazards by monitoring landslide-prone areas while receiving heavy rainfall. For the purpose of identifying rainfall-triggered landslides, an empirical global rainfall intensity-duration threshold is developed by examining a number of landslide occurrences and their corresponding TMPA precipitation characteristics across the world. These early results , in combination with TRMM real-time precipitation estimation system, may form a starting point for developing an operational early warning system for rainfall-triggered landslides around the globe.

Hong, Yang↗
NASA NTRS2006

Stardust Entry: Landing and Population Hazards in Mission Planning and Operations

The 385 kg Stardust mission was launched on Feb 7, 1999 on a mission to collect samples from the tail of comet Wild 2 and from interplanetary space. Stardust returned to Earth in the early morning of January 15, 2006. The sample return capsule landed in the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR) southwest of Salt Lake City. Because Stardust was landing on Earth, hazard analysis was required by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, UTTR, and the Stardust Project to ensure the safe return of the landing capsule along with the safety of people, ground assets, and aircraft. This paper focuses on the requirements affecting safe return of the capsule and safety of people on the ground by investigating parameters such as probability of impacting on UTTR, casualty expectation, and probability of casualty. This paper introduces the methods for the calculation of these requirements and shows how they affected mission planning, site selection, and mission operations. By analyzing these requirements before and during entry it allowed for the selection of a robust landing point that met all of the requirements during the actual landing event.

Desai, P.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Probabilistic Modeling of Space Shuttle Debris Impact

On Feb 1, 2003, the Shuttle Columbia was lost during its return to Earth. As a result of the conclusion that debris impact caused the damage to the left wing of the Columbia Space Shuttle Vehicle (SSV) during ascent, the Columbia Accident Investigation Board recommended that an assessment be performed of the debris environment experienced by the SSV during ascent. A flight rationale based on probabilistic assessment is used for the SSV return-to-flight. The assessment entails identifying all potential debris sources, their probable geometric and aerodynamic characteristics, and their potential for impacting and damaging critical Shuttle components. A probabilistic analysis tool, based on the SwRI-developed NESSUS probabilistic analysis software, predicts the probability of impact and damage to the space shuttle wing leading edge and thermal protection system components. Among other parameters, the likelihood of unacceptable damage depends on the time of release (Mach number of the orbiter) and the divot mass as well as the impact velocity and impact angle. A typical result is visualized in the figures below. Probability of impact and damage, as well as the sensitivities thereof with respect to the distribution assumptions, can be computed and visualized at each point on the orbiter or summarized per wing panel or tile zone.

Huyse, Luc J.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Analysis of ICESat Data Using Kalman Filter and Kriging to Study Height Changes in East Antarctica

We analyze ICESat derived heights collected between Feb. 03-Nov. 04 using a kriging/Kalman filtering approach to investigate height changes in East Antarctica. The model's parameters are height change to an a priori static digital height model, seasonal signal expressed as an amplitude Beta and phase Theta, and height-change rate dh/dt for each (100 km)(exp 2) block. From the Kalman filter results, dh/dt has a mean of -0.06 m/yr in the flat interior of East Antarctica. Spatially correlated pointing errors in the current data releases give uncertainties in the range 0.06 m/yr, making height change detection unreliable at this time. Our test shows that when using all available data with pointing knowledge equivalent to that of Laser 2a, height change detection with an accuracy level 0.02 m/yr can be achieved over flat terrains in East Antarctica.

Herring, Thomas A.↗