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At least 937 records · Page 52
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

Evaluating the Impacts of NASA/SPoRT Daily Greenness Vegetation Fraction on Land Surface Model and Numerical Weather Forecasts

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center develops new products and techniques that can be used in operational meteorology. The majority of these products are derived from NASA polar-orbiting satellite imagery from the Earth Observing System (EOS) platforms. One such product is a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) dataset, which is produced from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data aboard the NASA EOS Aqua and Terra satellites. NASA SPoRT began generating daily real-time GVF composites at 1-km resolution over the Continental United States (CONUS) on 1 June 2010. The purpose of this study is to compare the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climatology GVF product (currently used in operational weather models) to the SPoRT-MODIS GVF during June to October 2010. The NASA Land Information System (LIS) was employed to study the impacts of the new SPoRT-MODIS GVF dataset on land surface models apart from a full numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. For the 2010 warm season, the SPoRT GVF in the western portion of the CONUS was generally higher than the NCEP climatology. The eastern CONUS GVF had variations both above and below the climatology during the period of study. These variations in GVF led to direct impacts on the rates of heating and evaporation from the land surface. The second phase of the project is to examine the impacts of the SPoRT GVF dataset on NWP using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Two separate WRF model simulations were made for individual severe weather case days using the NCEP GVF (control) and SPoRT GVF (experimental), with all other model parameters remaining the same. Based on the sensitivity results in these case studies, regions with higher GVF in the SPoRT model runs had higher evapotranspiration and lower direct surface heating, which typically resulted in lower (higher) predicted 2-m temperatures (2-m dewpoint temperatures). The opposite was true for areas with lower GVF in the SPoRT model runs. These differences in the heating and evaporation rates produced subtle yet quantifiable differences in the simulated convective precipitation systems for the selected severe weather case examined.

Bell, Jordan R.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Current Usage and Future Prospects of Multispectral (RGB) Satellite Imagery in Support of NWS Forecast Offices and National Centers

What is an RGB Composite Image? (1) Current and future satellite instruments provide remote sensing at a variety of wavelengths. (2) RGB composite imagery assign individual wavelengths or channel differences to the intensities of the red, green, and blue components of a pixel color. (3) Each red, green, and blue color intensity is related to physical properties within the final composite image. (4) Final color assignments are therefore related to the characteristics of image pixels. (5) Products may simplify the interpretation of data from multiple bands by displaying information in a single image. Current Products and Usage: Collaborations between SPoRT, CIRA, and NRL have facilitated the use and evaluation of RGB products at a variety of NWS forecast offices and National Centers. These products are listed in table.

Molthan, Andrew↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Fixed-bias Langmuir Probe on the Communication-navigation Outage Forecast System Satellite: Calibration and Validation

A fixed-bias spherical Langmuir probe is included as part of the Vector Electric Field Instrument (VEFI) suite on the Communication Navigation Outage Forecast System (CNOFS) satellite.CNOFS gathers data in the equatorial ionosphere between 400 and 860 km, where the primary constituent ions are H+ and O+. The ion current collected by the probe surface per unit plasmadensity is found to be a strong function of ion composition. The calibration of the collected current to an absolute density is discussed, and the performance of the spherical probe is compared to other in situ instruments on board the CNOFS satellite. The application of the calibration is discussed with respect to future xed-bias probes; in particular, it is demonstrated that some density fluctuations will be suppressed in the collected current if the plasma composition rapidly changes along with density. This is illustrated in the observation of plasma density enhancements on CNOFS.

VEFI↗
NASA NTRS2012

Comparison of Dst Forecast Models for Intense Geomagnetic Storms

We have compared six disturbance storm time (Dst) forecast models using 63 intense geomagnetic storms (Dst <=100 nT) that occurred from 1998 to 2006. For comparison, we estimated linear correlation coefficients and RMS errors between the observed Dst data and the predicted Dst during the geomagnetic storm period as well as the difference of the value of minimum Dst (Delta Dst(sub min)) and the difference in the absolute value of Dst minimum time (Delta t(sub Dst)) between the observed and the predicted. As a result, we found that the model by Temerin and Li gives the best prediction for all parameters when all 63 events are considered. The model gives the average values: the linear correlation coefficient of 0.94, the RMS error of 14.8 nT, the Delta Dst(sub min) of 7.7 nT, and the absolute value of Delta t(sub Dst) of 1.5 hour. For further comparison, we classified the storm events into two groups according to the magnitude of Dst. We found that the model of Temerin and Lee is better than the other models for the events having 100 <= Dst < 200 nT, and three recent models (the model of Wang et al., the model of Temerin and Li, and the model of Boynton et al.) are better than the other three models for the events having Dst <= 200 nT.

Geomagnetic Storms↗
NASA NTRS2014

Myanmar Ecological Forecasting: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Monitor, Map, and Analyze Mangrove Forests in Myanmar for Enhanced Conservation

Mangroves supply many essential environmental amenities, such as preventing soil erosion, filtering water pollution, and protecting shorelines from harmful waves, floods, storms and winds. The Mangroves in Myanmar not only provide citizens with a food source, but they also offer firewood, charcoal, and construction materials. The depletion of mangroves is threatening more than the biodiversity however; Myanmar's fiscal livelihood is also in harm's way. Mangroves are valued at $100,000 to $277,000 per square kilometer and if managed in a sustainable fashion, can infuse constant income to the emerging Myanmarese economy. This study analyzed three coastline regions, the Ayeyarwady Delta, Rakhine and Tanintharyi, and mapped the spatial extent of mangrove forest during the dry season in 2000 and 2013. The classifications were derived from Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and Landsat 8 Operation Land Imager (OLI) imagery, as well as the Terra Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) digital elevation model information. This data was atmospherically corrected, mosaicked, masked and classified in ENVI, followed by ArcGIS to perform raster calculations and create final products. Forest degradation collected from 2000 to 2013 was later used to forecast the density and health of Mangroves in the year 2030. These results were subsequently presented to project partners Dr. Peter Leimgruber and Ellen Aiken at the Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute in Front Royal, VA. After the presentation of the project to the partners, these organizations formally passed on to the Myanmar Ministry of Environment, Conservation and Forestry for policy makers and forest managers to utilize in order to protect the Myanmar mangrove ecosystem while sustaining a healthy economy.

Weber, Samuel J.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Development and Implementation of Dynamic Scripts to Execute Cycled WRF/GSI Forecasts

Automating the coupling of data assimilation (DA) and modeling systems is a unique challenge in the numerical weather prediction (NWP) research community. In recent years, the Development Testbed Center (DTC) has released well-documented tools such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) DA system that can be easily downloaded, installed, and run by researchers on their local systems. However, developing a coupled system in which the various preprocessing, DA, model, and postprocessing capabilities are all integrated can be labor-intensive if one has little experience with any of these individual systems. Additionally, operational modeling entities generally have specific coupling methodologies that can take time to understand and develop code to implement properly. To better enable collaborating researchers to perform modeling and DA experiments with GSI, the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a set of Perl scripts that couple GSI and WRF in a cycling methodology consistent with the use of real-time, regional observation data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling Center (EMC). Because Perl is open source, the code can be easily downloaded and executed regardless of the user's native shell environment. This paper will provide a description of this open-source code and descriptions of a number of the use cases that have been performed by SPoRT collaborators using the scripts on different computing systems.

Zavodsky, Bradley↗
NASA NTRS2014

Integration of RGB "Dust" Imagery to Operations at the Albuquerque Forecast Office

The NASA/Short‐term Prediction, Research, and Transition (SPoRT) Program has been providing unique Red‐Green‐Blue (RGB) composite imagery to its operational partners since 2005. In the early years of activity these RGB products were related to a True Color RGB, showing what one's own eyes would see if looking down at earth from space, as well as a Snow‐Cloud RGB (i.e. False Color), separating clouds from snow on the ground. More recently SPoRT has used the EUMETSAT Best Practices standards for RGB composites to transition a wide array of imagery for multiple uses. A "Dust" RGB product has had particular use at the Albuquerque, New Mexico WFO. Several cases have occurred where users were able to isolate dust plume locations for mesoscale and microscale events during day and night time conditions. In addition the "Dust" RGB can be used for more than just detection of dust as it is sensitive to the changes in density due to atmospheric moisture content. Hence low‐level dry boundaries can often be discriminated. This type of imagery is a large change from the single channel imagery typically used by operational forecast staff and hence, can be a challenge to interpret. This presentation aims to discuss the integration of such new imagery into operational use as well as the benefits assessed by the Albuquerque WFO over several documented events.

Fuell, Kevin↗
NASA NTRS2014

Integration of RGB "Dust" Imagery to Operations at the Albuqueque Forecast Office

The NASA/Short‐term Prediction, Research, and Transition (SPoRT) Program has been providing unique Red‐Green‐Blue (RGB) composite imagery to its operational partners since 2005. In the early years of activity these RGB products were related to a True Color RGB, showing what one's own eyes would see if looking down at earth from space, as well as a Snow‐Cloud RGB (i.e. False Color), separating clouds from snow on the ground. More recently SPoRT has used the EUMETSAT Best Practices standards for RGB composites to transition a wide array of imagery for multiple uses. A "Dust" RGB product has had particular use at the Albuquerque, New Mexico WFO. Several cases have occurred where users were able to isolate dust plume locations for mesoscale and microscale events during day and night time conditions. In addition the "Dust" RGB can be used for more than just detection of dust as it is sensitive to the changes in density due to atmospheric moisture content. Hence low‐level dry boundaries can often be discriminated. This type of imagery is a large change from the single channel imagery typically used by operational forecast staff and hence, can be a challenge to interpret. This presentation aims to discuss the integration of such new imagery into operational use as well as the benefits assessed by the Albuquerque WFO over several documented events.

Fuell, Kevin↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Fixed-Bias Langmuir Probe on the Communication-Navigation Outage Forecast System Satellite: Calibration and Validation

A fixed-bias spherical Langmuir probe is included as part of the Vector Electric Field Instrument (VEFI) suite on the Communication Navigation Outage Forecast System (CNOFS) satellite.CNOFS gathers data in the equatorial ionosphere between 400 and 860 km, where the primary constituent ions are H+ and O+. The ion current collected by the probe surface per unit plasma density is found to be a strong function of ion composition. The calibration of the collected current to an absolute density is discussed, and the performance of the spherical probe is compared to other in situ instruments on board the CNOFS satellite. The application of the calibration is discussed with respect to future fixed-bias probes; in particular, it is demonstrated that some density fluctuations will be suppressed in the collected current if the plasma composition rapidly changes along with density. This is illustrated in the observation of plasma density enhancements on CNOFS.

Vector Electric Field Instrument↗
NASA NTRS2013

Flowering Date of Taxonomic Families Predicts Phenological Sensitivity to Temperature: Implications for Forecasting the Effects of Climate Change on Unstudied Taxa

Premise of the study: Numerous long-term studies in seasonal habitats have tracked interannual variation in fi rst fl owering date (FFD) in relation to climate, documenting the effect of warming on the FFD of many species. Despite these efforts, long-term phenological observations are still lacking for many species. If we could forecast responses based on taxonomic affi nity, however, then we could leverage existing data to predict the climate-related phenological shifts of many taxa not yet studied; Methods: We examined phenological time series of 1226 species occurrences (1031 unique species in 119 families) across seven sites in North America and England to determine whether family membership (or family mean FFD) predicts the sensitivity of FFD to standardized interannual changes in temperature and precipitation during seasonal periods before fl owering and whether families differ signifi cantly in the direction of their phenological shifts; Key results: Patterns observed among species within and across sites are mirrored among family means across sites; earlyfl owering families advance their FFD in response to warming more than late-fl owering families. By contrast, we found no consistent relationships among taxa between mean FFD and sensitivity to precipitation as measured here; Conclusions: Family membership can be used to identify taxa of high and low sensitivity to temperature within the seasonal, temperate zone plant communities analyzed here. The high sensitivity of early-fl owering families (and the absence of earlyfl owering families not sensitive to temperature) may refl ect plasticity in fl owering time, which may be adaptive in environments where early-season conditions are highly variable among years.

first flowering date↗
NASA NTRS2015

Technology Alignment and Portfolio Prioritization (TAPP): Advanced Methods in Strategic Analysis, Technology Forecasting and Long Term Planning for Human Exploration and Operations, Advanced Exploration Systems and Advanced Concepts

The Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) at NASA, Marshall Space Flight Center is expanding its current technology assessment methodologies. ACO is developing a framework called TAPP that uses a variety of methods, such as association mining and rule learning from data mining, structure development using a Technological Innovation System (TIS), and social network modeling to measure structural relationships. The role of ACO is to 1) produce a broad spectrum of ideas and alternatives for a variety of NASA's missions, 2) determine mission architecture feasibility and appropriateness to NASA's strategic plans, and 3) define a project in enough detail to establish an initial baseline capable of meeting mission objectives ACO's role supports the decision­-making process associated with the maturation of concepts for traveling through, living in, and understanding space. ACO performs concept studies and technology assessments to determine the degree of alignment between mission objectives and new technologies. The first step in technology assessment is to identify the current technology maturity in terms of a technology readiness level (TRL). The second step is to determine the difficulty associated with advancing a technology from one state to the next state. NASA has used TRLs since 1970 and ACO formalized them in 1995. The DoD, ESA, Oil & Gas, and DoE have adopted TRLs as a means to assess technology maturity. However, "with the emergence of more complex systems and system of systems, it has been increasingly recognized that TRL assessments have limitations, especially when considering [the] integration of complex systems." When performing the second step in a technology assessment, NASA requires that an Advancement Degree of Difficulty (AD2) method be utilized. NASA has used and developed or used a variety of methods to perform this step: Expert Opinion or Delphi Approach, Value Engineering or Value Stream, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Technique for the Order of Prioritization by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and other multi­‐criteria decision-making methods. These methods can be labor-intensive, often contain cognitive or parochial bias, and do not consider the competing prioritization between mission architectures. Strategic Decision-Making (SDM) processes cannot be properly understood unless the context of the technology is understood. This makes assessing technological change particularly challenging due to the relationships "between incumbent technology and the incumbent (innovation) system in relation to the emerging technology and the emerging innovation system." The central idea in technology dynamics is to consider all activities that contribute to the development, diffusion, and use of innovations as system functions. Bergek defines system functions within a TIS to address what is actually happening and has a direct influence on the ultimate performance of the system and technology development. ACO uses similar metrics and is expanding these metrics to account for the structure and context of the technology. At NASA technology and strategy is strongly interrelated. NASA's Strategic Space Technology Investment Plan (SSTIP) prioritizes those technologies essential to the pursuit of NASA's missions and national interests. The SSTIP is strongly coupled with NASA's Technology Roadmaps to provide investment guidance during the next four years, within a twenty-year horizon. This paper discusses the methods ACO is currently developing to better perform technology assessments while taking into consideration Strategic Alignment, Technology Forecasting, and Long Term Planning.

Funaro, Gregory V.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Update on the NASA GEOS-5 Aerosol Forecasting and Data Assimilation System

GEOS-5 is the Goddard Earth Observing System model. GEOS-5 is maintained by the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. Core development is within GMAO,Goddard Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, and with external partners. Primary GEOS-5 functions: Earth system model for studying climate variability and change, provide research quality reanalyses for supporting NASA instrument teams and scientific community, provide near-real time forecasts of meteorology,aerosols, and other atmospheric constituents to support NASA airborne campaigns.

GEOS-5↗
NASA NTRS2017

Unmanned Aircraft Systems Demand Forecast Study

UAS demand slides discuss the purpose, scope, and assumptions of the UAS Demand Forecast Study. It discusses some operational environments and market research study, this information is broad knowledge in the UAS community.

UAS in NA↗
NASA NTRS2018

The 2019 Meteor Shower Activity Forecast for Low Earth Orbit

The purpose of this document is to provide a forecast of major meteor shower activity in low Earth orbit. Several meteor showers - the Draconids, Perseids, eta Aquariids, Orionids, and potentially the Andromedids - are predicted to exhibit increased rates in 2019. However, no storms (meteor showers with visual rates exceeding 1000 [1, 2]) are predicted.

Moorhead, Althea↗
NASA NTRS2019

Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling and Air Quality Forecasting Using Machine Learning

Atmospheric chemistry models are a central tool to study the impact of chemical constituents on the environment, vegetation and human health. These models split the atmosphere in a large number of grid-boxes and consider the emission of compounds into these boxes and their subsequent transport, deposition, and chemical processing. The chemistry is represented through a series of simultaneous ordinary differential equations, one for each compound. Given the difference in life-times between the chemical compounds (milli-seconds for O1D to years for CH4) these equations are numerically stiff and solving them consists of a significant fraction of the computational burden of a chemistry model.We have investigated a machine learning approach to emulate the chemistry instead of solving the differential equations numerically. From a one-month simulation of the GEOS-Chem model we have produced a training dataset consisting of the concentration of compounds before and after the differential equations are solved, together with some key physical parameters for every grid-box and time-step. From this dataset we have trained a machine learning algorithm (regression forest) to be able to predict the concentration of the compounds after the integration step based on the concentrations and physical state at the beginning of the time step. We have then included this algorithm back into the GEOS-Chem model, bypassing the need to integrate the chemistry.This machine learning approach shows many of the characteristics of the full simulation and has the potential to be substantially faster. There are a wide range of application for such an approach - generating boundary conditions, for use in air quality forecasts, chemical data assimilation systems, etc. We discuss speed and accuracy of our approach, and highlight some potential future directions for improving it.

Keller, Christoph A.↗