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At least 937 records · Page 52

Did Geomagnetic Activity Challenge Electric Power Reliability During Solar Cycle 23? Evidence from the PJM Regional Transmission Organization in North America

During solar cycle 22, a very intense geomagnetic storm on 13 March 1989 contributed to the collapse of the Hydro-Quebec power system in Canada. This event clearly demonstrated that geomagnetic storms have the potential to lead to blackouts. This paper addresses whether geomagnetic activity challenged power system reliability during solar cycle 23. Operations by PJM Interconnection, LLC (hereafter PJM), a regional transmission organization in North America, are examined over the period 1 April 2002 through 30 April 2004. During this time PJM coordinated the movement of wholesale electricity in all or parts of Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia in the United States. We examine the relationship between a proxy of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) and a metric of challenged reliability. In this study, GICs are proxied using magnetometer data from a geomagnetic observatory located just outside the PJM control area. The metric of challenged reliability is the incidence of out-of-economic-merit order dispatching due to adverse reactive power conditions. The statistical methods employed make it possible to disentangle the effects of GICs on power system operations from purely terrestrial factors. The results of the analysis indicate that geomagnetic activity can significantly increase the likelihood that the system operator will dispatch generating units based on system stability considerations rather than economic merit.

storms↗

Parametric Evaluation of Interstellar Exploration Mission Concepts

One persistent difficulty in evaluating the myriad advanced propulsion concepts proposed over the last 60 years is a true apples to apples comparison of the expected gain in performance. This analysis is complicated by numerous factors including, multiple missions of interest to the advanced propulsion community, the lack of a credible closed form solution to 'medium thrust' trajectories, and lack of detailed design data for most proposed concepts that lend credibility to engine performance estimates. This paper describes a process on how to make fair comparisons of different propulsion concepts for multiple missions over a wide range of performance values. The figure below illustrates this process. This paper describes in detail the process and outlines the status so far in compiling the required data. Parametric data for several missions are calculated and plotted against specific power-specific impulse scatter plots of expected propulsion system performance. The overlay between required performance as defined by the trajectory parametrics and expected performance as defined in the literature for major categories of propulsion systems clearly defines which propulsion systems are the most apt for a given mission. The application of the Buckingham Pi theorem to general parameters for interstellar exploration ( mission time, mass, specific impulse, specific power, distance, propulsion source energy/mass, etc.) yields a number of dimensionless variables. The relationships of these variables can then be explored before application to a particular mission. Like in the fields of fluid mechanics and heat transfer, the use of the Buckingham Pi theorem results in new variables to make apples to apples comparisons.

Adams, Robert B.↗

Artemis Lunar Mission Availability & Design

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Artemis Program is leading international spaceexploration in a return to human lunar missions. The mission design underpinning this program is a critical aspect inthe integration of the multiple vehicles, processes, and capabilities to execute the most demanding human spaceflightmissions to date. Frequently mission design is characterized solely by its trajectory and the associated delta-velocityto achieve the end-to-end mission on a single day of flight. However, in practical terms for spaceflight missions,actual performance must characterize the translation delta-velocity demand, integrated power and thermal, crew dayoperations, commodities limitations, launch vehicle opportunities, and numerous additional factors across numerouslaunch day dependent variables. These factors together provide a unified set of mission design constraints that mustall be met in order to execute a fully integrated mission. The frequency of achieving all of the mission designconstraints is thus characterized as mission availability. The mission availability reflects the number of opportunitiesin any given period (month, year, etc.) for which an end-to-end mission could be launched. Ensuring adequatemission availability for the Artemis Program is necessary to support long term viability and sustainability of humanlunar exploration. This paper will characterize the driving factors in the Artemis mission availability includingvehicle specific effects from the Space Launch System (SLS), Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle, Gateway, HumanLanding System (HLS) and other contributing projects. This analysis will also summarize the relevant factors thatfuture vehicles and projects should consider for the integration and expansion of exploration capabilities with theArtemis Program.

Nujoud Fahoum Merancy↗

Linear Covariance Techniques to Analyze a Multi-Vehicle, Multi-GN&C System with Applications to Rendezvous in a Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit

Typically for a rendezvous and docking scenario, only a single vehicle is considered the active vehicle. As a result, the target vehicle’s GN&C system is typically not a factor in the integrated performance analysis as it assumes a passive role. However, for upcoming NASA Artemis missions the active vehicle is both the chaser and target spacecraft. In addition, both vehicles are cooperating with one another, sharing telemetry data, and relying on data extracted from the GN&C system of the other. The process also includes a team of ground support personnel in mission control are tracking and monitoring each spacecraft uplinking state estimates and targeting solutions to support mission operations and enhance the onboard flight system performance. Being able to quickly analyze the impact of both vehicles with two different GN&C systems that also interact with the ground that does its own navigation and targeting uploads is critical. This paper outlines how to perform this rapid analysis using linear covariance techniques and applies them to a rendezvous scenario initiated in low lunar orbit and completed in a Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit (NRHO) representative of the NASA Artemis III mission.

Linear Covariance Analysis↗

Estimations of Aircraft and Airport Domestic Greenhouse Gas Emissions from 2016-2021

Data and analyses are presented on the utilization of aircraft fuel in the U.S. and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions. Commercial passenger and freight flight data and airport fuel consumption usage from 2016-2021 are captured from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics website and the Sherlock Data Warehouse managed at NASA Ames Research Center. The resulting dataset is used to determine the miles flown by major aircraft. The corresponding aircraft fuel burn is estimated based on the International Civilian Aviation Organization fuel burn tables, and carbon dioxide emissions are calculated using a fuel-burn multiplicative factor. One conclusion of this analysis is that long-haul flights (flight distances > 2485 statute miles) create a disproportionately large amount of carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S, while short flights (< 311 statute miles) contribute less than five percent of the U.S. aviation-related carbon dioxide emissions. Although these short-haul flights may not have a large impact on overall carbon dioxide emissions, they will be valuable as demonstration missions for the next generation of electric, hybrid, and hydrogen-powered vehicles and their supporting energy infrastructures. This paper discusses recent trends in short-haul missions, their associated aircraft and airport types, and extracts several key requirements for future short-haul vehicles.

Susie Go↗

Estimations of Aircraft and Airport Domestic Greenhouse Gas Emissions from 2016-2021

Data and analyses are presented on the utilization of aircraft fuel in the U.S. and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions. Commercial passenger and freight flight data and airport fuel consumption usage from 2016-2021 are captured from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics website and the Sherlock Data Warehouse managed at NASA Ames Research Center. The resulting dataset is used to determine the miles flown by major aircraft. The corresponding aircraft fuel burn is estimated based on the International Civilian Aviation Organization fuel burn tables, and carbon dioxide emissions are calculated using a fuel-burn multiplicative factor. One conclusion of this analysis is that long-haul flights (flight distances > 2485 statute miles) create a disproportionately large amount of carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S, while short flights (< 311 statute miles) contribute less than five percent of the U.S. aviation-related carbon dioxide emissions. Although these short-haul flights may not have a large impact on overall carbon dioxide emissions, they will be valuable as demonstration missions for the next generation of electric, hybrid, and hydrogen-powered vehicles and their supporting energy infrastructures. This paper discusses recent trends in short-haul missions, their associated aircraft and airport types, and extracts several key requirements for future short-haul vehicles.

Susie Go↗

Fracture Mechanics Testing of Titanium 6AL-4V in LMP-103S Propellant

Propellant tank safe-life analysis is a spacecraft propulsion subsystem Launch Range processing requirement. The material property inputs for the safe-life analysis include the stress intensity factor for environment-assisted cracking (KEAC). The KEAC for titanium alloy Ti 6Al-4V in LMP-103S propellant was determined experimentally using an innovative test method following ASTM E1681, Standard Test Method for Determining Threshold Stress Intensity Factor for Environment-Assisted Cracking of Metallic Materials. This effort was a collaboration between NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and NASA Kennedy Space Center to expose the test specimens in the propellant, while loaded in the test fixtures, for 1000- hour (42 days) at 50°C. Two test rounds have been completed to date; 1) testing mechanically loaded specimens but without propellant and 2) testing mechanically loaded specimens wetted with LMP-103S propellant. The dry test was to evaluate the crack growth without exposure to the LMP-103S propellant, and further assess the un-wetted stress intensity factor for the full 1000-hour duration. The second round of testing included the propellant soak for the requisite 1000- hour at 50°C. Current results show that the threshold intensity factor for environment-assisted cracking (exposed to LMP103S) is 22.5 ksi√in for the bulk material and 36. 2 ksi√in for the weld material. A generic ‘candidate’ tank geometry and material thickness is developed for a damage tolerance of known surface cracks below the nondestructive inspection technique detection limit. Evaluations with and without the use of a threshold intensity factor for environment-assisted cracking is performed for the required 4x propellant tank service life using the software tool NASGRO. SP2024_00239

Green propulsion↗

Relationships among forest type, watershed characteristics, and watershed ET in rural basins of the Southeastern US

Evapotranspiration (ET) typically accounts for 60–70% of precipitation in rural basins of the Southeastern United States. Since 1930, substantial reforestation of former croplands has occurred in the Piedmont and Appalachian Highlands in this area, leading to an expected increase in ET and reduction in baseflow. This study examines relationships between basin vegetative cover, abiotic factors, and water-budget partitioning in 45 USGS-gaged rural basins in the Southeastern US. Data are for the 1982–2014 water years with watersheds having ≥40% forest cover, crystalline-rock aquifers, minimal basin water export, and no large reservoirs. Long-term annual ET is calculated using the water-budget equation (ET = P-Q), which ranges from 641 to 971 mm/yr. (median 824). Vegetative cover and other basin variables are regressed against ET to quantify the effects of vegetative and forest types. Budyko analysis is employed to compare the watersheds and to evaluate factors affecting residuals. Regression analysis indicates that ET behavior is best explained by abiotic factors (i.e., precipitation and temperature) but forest-cover type also has some effect. Evergreen forest cover is less common than deciduous or mixed forest but has a positive relationship with ET, while deciduous and total forest have negative relationships with ET. Comparison of water-balance and Budyko-estimated ET indicates that deciduous and total forest are associated with negative residuals while evergreen is not significant. Furthermore, these results show that: forest cover effects on basin ET are complicated; forest-cover type is important for water-yield management in this region, and abiotic basin characteristics exert stronger control than forest cover on ET.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Analysis of surface cracks in finite plates under tension or bending loads

Stress-intensity factors calculated with a three-dimensional, finite-element analysis for shallow and deep semielliptical surface cracks in finite elastic isotropic plates subjected to tension or bending loads are presented. A wide range of configuration parameters was investigated. The ratio of crack depth to plate thickness ranged from 0.2 to 0.8 and the ratio of crack depth to crack length ranged from 0.2 to 2.0. The effects of plate width on stress-intensity variations along the crack front was also investigated. A wide-range equation for stress-intensity factors along the crack front as a function of crack depth, crack length, plate thickness, and plate width was developed for tension and bending loads. The equation was used to predict patterns of surface-crack growth under tension or bending fatigue loads. A modified form of the equation was also used to correlate surface-crack fracture data for a brittle epoxy material within + or - 10 percent for a wide range of crack shapes and crack sizes.

Newman, J. C., Jr.↗

Methods for multisource data analysis in remote sensing

Methods for classifying remotely sensed data from multiple data sources are considered. Special interest is in general methods for multisource classification and three such approaches are considered: Dempster-Shafer theory; fuzzy set theory; and statistical multisource analysis. To apply statistical multisource analysis successfully it is necessary to characterize the reliability of each data source. Separability measures and classification accuracy are used to measure the reliability. These reliability measures are then associated with reliability factors included in the statistical multisource analysis to multispectral scanner data where different segments of the electromagnetic spectrum are treated as different sources. A discussion is included concerning future directions for investigating reliability measures.

Benediktsson, Jon Atli↗

A critical analysis of the modified equation technique of Warming and Hyett

The modified equation technique of Warming and Hyett (1974), which evaluates the behavior of a difference scheme by means of the coefficients of a certain modified equation, established a link between such coefficients and the multiplication factor obtained from the von Neumann analysis. It follows from this pioneering work that modified equations should be derived from the difference scheme, rather than from the original differential equation; a rigorous investigation is presently made of this link without resort to their original interpretation. Only partial validity is establishable for the case of multilevel schemes.

Chang, Sin-Chung↗

Variation Principles and Applications in the Study of Cell Structure and Aging

In this report we have attempted to show that "some reality lies concealed in biological variation". This "reality" has its principles, laws, mechanisms, and rules, only a few of which we have sketched. A related idea we pursued was that important information may be lost in the process of ignoring frequency distributions of physiological variables (as is customary in experimental physiology and gerontology). We suggested that it may be advantageous to expand one's "statistical field of vision" beyond simple averages +/- standard deviations. Indeed, frequency distribution analysis may make visible some hidden information not evident from a simple qualitative analysis, particularly when the effect of some external factor or condition (e.g., aging, dietary chemicals) is being investigated. This was clearly illustrated by the application of distribution analysis in the study of variation in mouse liver cellular and fine structure, and may be true of fine structural studies in general. In living systems, structure and function interact in a dynamic way; they are "inseparable," unlike in technological systems or machines. Changes in fine structure therefore reflect changes in function. If such changes do not exceed a certain physiologic range, a quantitative analysis of structure will provide valuable information on quantitative changes in function that may not be possible or easy to measure directly. Because there is a large inherent variation in fine structure of cells in a given organ of an individual and among individuals, changes in fine structure can be analyzed only by studying frequency distribution curves of various structural characteristics (dimensions). Simple averages +/- S.D. do not in general reveal all information on the effect of a certain factor, because often this effect is not uniform; on the contrary, this will be apparent from distribution analysis because the form of the curves will be affected. We have also attempted to show in this chapter that similar general statistical principles and mechanisms may be operative in biological and technological systems. Despite the common belief that most biological and technological characteristics of interest have a symmetric bell-shaped (normal or Gaussian) distribution, we have shown that more often than not, distributions tend to be asymmetric and often resemble a so-called log-normal distribution. We saw that at least three general mechanisms may be operative, i.e., nonadditivity of influencing factors, competition among individuals for a common resource, and existence of an "optimum" value for a studied characteristic; more such mechanisms could exist.

Economos, Angelos C.↗

Digital Image Correlation Data Processing and Analysis Techniques to Enhance Test Data Assessment and Improve Structural Simulations

The NASA Shell Buckling Knockdown Factor Project (SBKF) was established in 2007 by the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) with the primary goal to develop new analysis-based buckling design factors (a.k.a. knockdown factors) and high-fidelity buckling simulations for selected launch-vehicle-like cylindrical shell structures. A series of tests are being conducted on large-scale metallic and composite cylindrical shells in order to provide validation data for these new factors and simulations. However, the validation of these new factors and simulations is quite demanding and requires test data that is commensurate with their fidelity. Traditional instrumentation, such as linear variable displacement transducers (LVDTs) and electrical-resistance strain gages serve a critical role in providing accurate displacement and strain measurements in these tests, but only allow for data to be recorded at a select number of point locations and are not sufficient to provide all the necessary validation data. Advanced measurement technologies can be used effectively to complement traditional instrumentation and gather additional data required to validate these structural simulations. In particular, three-dimensional digital image correlation (DIC) was implemented during SBKF cylinder testing to characterize the full-field displacement and strain behavior. Commercially available VIC-3DTM software and user-written data processing scripts were used to generate valuable data and insight into the complex buckling response of the cylinders that otherwise would be impossible to gather using traditional instrumentation. In addition, the measured data from DIC was used to verify measured test data obtained from other instrumentation, enhance test and analysis correlation, and help identify the root cause of anomalous test results that may have gone unexplained if only traditional instrumentation was used. Selected test results that demonstrate the use of DIC on the SBKF cylinders are presented and a portion of the data processing methods are described.

Gardner, Nathaniel W.↗

Modal coupling and acoustic intensity measurements

Acoustic-intensity measurement techniques for highly resonant coupled structural-acoustic systems are discussed. Frequency-averaging effects are shown to cause inaccurate results in such systems, and it is recommended that the analysis bandwidth be selected carefully to account for the response modal density and Q factor. The applicability of these findings to the analysis of reverberation chambers is indicated.

Silcox, R. J.↗

Measurement of inclusive charged-particle b-jet production in pp and p-Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{\mathrm{NN}}}$ = 5.02 TeV

A measurement of the inclusive b-jet production cross section is presented in pp and p-Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV, using data collected with the ALICE detector at the LHC. The jets were reconstructed in the central rapidity region |η| < 0.5 from charged particles using the anti-k T algorithm with resolution parameter R = 0.4. Identification of b jets exploits the long lifetime of b hadrons, using the properties of secondary vertices and impact parameter distributions. The p T -differential inclusive production cross section of b jets, as well as the corresponding inclusive b-jet fraction, are reported for pp and p-Pb collisions in the jet transverse momentum range 10 ≤ p T,ch jet ≤ 100 GeV/c, together with the nuclear modification factor, $R^{b-jet}_{pPb}$. The analysis thus extends the lower p T limit of b-jet measurements at the LHC. The nuclear modification factor is found to be consistent with unity, indicating that the production of b jets in p-Pb at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV is not affected by cold nuclear matter effects within the current precision. The measurements are well reproduced by POWHEG NLO pQCD calculations with PYTHIA fragmentation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Equipment List Comparing Balance of Plant Containing a Heat Pump against a Reference Electricity Generating Plant

Approximately two-thirds of U.S. energy consumption in the industrial and transportation sectors relies on fossil fuels. These sectors require high-quality heat, i.e., thermal energy at very high temperatures, for molecular transformation processes. The Integrated Energy Systems (IES) program aims to assess the economic potential of utilizing nuclear-grade heat from Advanced Reactors (ARs) to meet the high-quality heat demands. By having industrial processes (IPs) supplied with nuclear-generated heat, manufacturers could benefit from more stable and potentially lower energy costs, reducing reliance on volatile fossil fuel markets. The main outcome of the FY24 research was the thermodynamic assessment and gap analysis of steam generation for IP applications. The study completed in June 2024 demonstrated that the required steam temperatures could be achieved by integrating a heat pump into an AR power plant. After identifying the thermal demands of target IPs, multiple balance of plant configurations for the Xe-100 reactor by X-energy, incorporating a heat pump, were analyzed. Their technical feasibilities were assessed, including the design of suitable axial compressors for these applications. Comparative performance analysis showed that thermal efficiency alone is insufficient to evaluate system suitability. To address this, a new indicator (heat factor) was introduced in the report released in September 2024 to quantify the low-quality thermal power needed to produce one unit of high-quality heat for the IP. Results showed that integrating heat pumps into Rankine cycles enables higher steam temperatures, though at the expense of increased thermal energy input. This report builds upon and completes the foundational work previously undertaken. It focuses on the design of two Balance of Plant (BOP) configurations, both based on Rankine energy conversion cycles: “Case 1”, which involves electricity generation only, and “Case 2”, which combines electricity and high-temperature heat generation for industrial use. For each configuration, a comprehensive equipment list was developed, detailing all major components such as turbines, compressors, heat exchangers, pumps, and control systems. These lists will serve as the basis for future comparative cost analyses, with the goal of assessing the number and type of components required to integrate a heat pump into the Rankine cycle and to establish a heat transport system capable of delivering thermal energy from the nuclear plant to an industrial facility. Using the constitutive equations presented in the June 2024 milestone, the operating conditions of all BOP components for both “Case 1” and “Case 2” were evaluated. These parameters—such as temperature, pressure, mass flow rate, and steam quality—served as the basis for calculating the associated thermal and mechanical power flows. The net power required from the heat pump to raise the steam temperature to the target level was also determined. The thermodynamic performance of the configuration was then assessed using the heat factor metric. The key outcome of this analysis is a comparative table that presents the equipment that was used in the “Case 1” and “Case 2” configurations. This study offers a preliminary comparison of the two designs, providing insight into the impact of integrating a heat pump in terms of component requirements and thermal efficiency. This equipment list, together with the evaluated operating conditions, also serves as a foundation for the economic analyses scheduled for the current fiscal year.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Charge radii of the nucleon from its flavor dependent Dirac form factors

In this report we have determined the proton and the neutron charge radii from a global analysis of the proton and the neutron elastic form factors, after first performing a flavor decomposition of these form factors under charge symmetry in the light cone frame formulation. We then extracted the transverse mean-square radii of the flavor dependent quark distributions. In turn, these are related in a model-independent way to the proton and neutron charge radii but allow us to take into account motion effects of the recoiling nucleon for data at finite but high momentum transfer. In the proton case we find $\langle r_p \rangle$ = 0.852±0.002 (stat.) ± 0.009 (syst.) (fm), consistent with the proton charge radius obtained from muonic hydrogen spectroscopy. The current method improves on the precision of the $\langle r_p \rangle$; extraction based on the form factor measurements. Furthermore, we find no discrepancy in the $\langle r_p \rangle$ determination among the different electron scattering measurements, all of which, utilizing the current method of extraction, result in a value that is consistent with the smallest $\langle r_p \rangle$ extraction from the electron scattering measurements. Concerning the neutron case, past results relied solely on the neutron-electron scattering length measurements, which suffer from an underestimation of underlying systematic uncertainties inherent to the extraction technique. Utilizing the present method we have performed the first extraction of the neutron charge radius based on nucleon form factor data, and we find $\langle r^2_n \rangle$ = -0.122±0.004 (stat.) ± 0.010 (syst.) (fm 2 ).

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Numerical and experimental analyses of the radiant heat flux produced by quartz heating systems

A method is developed for predicting the radiant heat flux distribution produced by tungsten filament, tubular fused-quartz envelope heating systems with reflectors. The method is an application of Monte Carlo simulation, which takes the form of a random walk or ray tracing scheme. The method is applied to four systems of increasing complexity, including a single lamp without a reflector, a single lamp with a Hat reflector, a single lamp with a parabolic reflector, and up to six lamps in a six-lamp contoured-reflector heating unit. The application of the Monte Carlo method to the simulation of the thermal radiation generated by these systems is discussed. The procedures for numerical implementation are also presented. Experiments were conducted to study these quartz heating systems and to acquire measurements of the corresponding empirical heat flux distributions for correlation with analysis. The experiments were conducted such that several complicating factors could be isolated and studied sequentially. Comparisons of the experimental results with analysis are presented and discussed. Good agreement between the experimental and simulated results was obtained in all cases. This study shows that this method can be used to analyze very complicated quartz heating systems and can account for factors such as spectral properties, specular reflection from curved surfaces, source enhancement due to reflectors and/or adjacent sources, and interaction with a participating medium in a straightforward manner.

Turner, Travis L.↗