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NASA NTRS2021

Extreme High Greenland Blocking Index Leads to the Reversal of Davis and Nares Strait Net Transport Towards the Arctic Ocean

Baffin Bay exports Arctic Water to the North Atlantic while receiving northward flowing Atlantic Water. Warm Atlantic Water has impacted the retreat of tidewater glaciers draining the Greenland Ice Sheet. Periods of enhanced Atlantic Water transport into Baffin Bay have been observed, but the oceanic processes are still not fully explained. At the end of 2010 the net transport at Davis Strait, the southern gateway to Baffin Bay, reversed from southward to northward for a month, leading to significant northward oceanic heat transport into Baffin Bay. This was associated with an extreme high in the Greenland Blocking Index and a stormtrack path that shifted away from Baffin Bay. Thus fewer cyclones in the Irminger Sea resulted in less frequent northerly winds along the western coast of Greenland, allowing anomalous northward penetration of warm waters, reversing the volume and heat transport at Davis Strait.

Davis Strait↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Trajectory Planning for Mission Survivability of Autonomous Vehicles in Moderately to Extremely Uncertain Environments

Trajectory planning is a particularly challenging task for autonomous vehicles when there are moderate to extreme uncertainties in their operating environment, i.e., where the trajectories of hazards are partially known to completely unknown. In this paper, we propose a receding horizon control strategy with novel trajectory planning policies that enable dynamic updating of the planned trajectories of autonomous vehicles. The proposed policies utilize two metrics: (1) the number of feasible trajectories; and (2) the robustness of the feasible trajectories. We measure the effectiveness of the suggested policies in terms of mission survivability, which is defined as the probability that the primary mission is accomplished or, if that is not possible, the vehicle lands safely at an alternative site. We show that a linear combination of both metrics is an effective objective function when there is a mix of partially known and unknown uncertainties. When the operating environment is dominated by unknown disturbances, maximizing the number of feasible trajectories results in the highest mission survivability. These findings have significant implications for achieving safe aviation autonomy.

aviation autonomy↗

NASA NTRS2021

Extreme Ozone Loss Following Nuclear War Results in Enhanced Surface Ultraviolet Radiation

For the first time, we use a modern climate model with interactive chemistry including the effects of aerosols on photolysis rates to simulate the consequences of regional and global scale nuclear wars (injecting 5 and 150 Tg of soot respectively) for the ozone layer and surface ultraviolet (UV) light. For a global nuclear war, heating in the stratosphere, reduced photolysis, and an increase in catalytic loss from the Hox cycle cause a 15 year-long reduction in the ozone column, with a peak loss of 75% globally and 65% in the tropics. This is larger than predictions from the 1980s, which assumed large injections of nitrogen oxides (NOx),but did not include the effects of smoke. NOx from the fireball and the fires provide a small (5%) Increase to the global average ozone loss for the first few years. Initially, soot would shield the surface from UV-B, but UV Index values would become extreme: greater than 35in the tropics for 4years, and greater than 45during the summer in the southern polar regions for 3 years. For a regional war, global column ozone would be reduced by 25% with recovery taking 12 years. This is similar to previous simulations, but with a faster recovery time due to a shorter lifetime for soot in our simulations. In-line photolysis provides process specific action spectra enabling future integration with biogeochemistry models and allows output that quantifies the potential health impacts from changes in surface UV for this and other larger aerosol injections.

nuclear war↗

NASA NTRS2021

Air Pollution Scenario over Pakistan: Characterization and Ranking of Extremely Polluted Cities using Long-Term Concentrations of Aerosols and Trace Gases

Pakistan ranks third in the world in terms of mortality attributable to air pollution, with aerosol mass concentrations (PM2.5) consistently well above WHO (World Health Organization) air quality guidelines (AQG). However, regulation is dependent on a sparse network of air quality monitoring stations and insufficient ground data. This study utilizes long-term observations of aerosols and trace gases to characterize and rank the air pollution scenarios and pollution characteristics of 80 selected cities in Pakistan. Datasets used include (1) the Aqua and Terra (AquaTerra) MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Level 2 Collection 6.1 merged Dark Target and Deep Blue (DTB) aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieval products; (2) the CAMS (Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service) reanalysis PM1, PM2.5, and PM10 data; (3) the MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2) reanalysis PM2.5 data, (4) the OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) tropospheric vertical column density (TVCD) of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and VCD of sulfur dioxide (SO2) in the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL), (5) the VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) Nighttime Lights data, (6) MODIS Collection 6 Version 2 global monthly fire location data (MCD14ML), (7) population density, (8) MODIS Level 3 Collection 6 land cover types, (9) AERONET (AErosol RObotic NETwork) Version 3 Level 2.0 data, and (10) ground-based PM2.5 concentrations from air quality monitoring stations. Potential Source Contribution Function (PSCF) analyses were performed by integrating with ground-based PM2.5 concentrations and the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) HYSPLIT (Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) air parcel back trajectories to identify potential pollution source areas which are responsible for extreme air pollution in Pakistan. Results show that the ranking of the top polluted cities depends on the type of pollutant considered and the metric used. For example, Jhang, Multan, and Vehari were characterized as the top three polluted cities in Pakistan when considering AquaTerra DTB AOD products; for PM1, PM2.5, and PM10 Lahore, Gujranwala, and Okara were the top three; for tropospheric NO2 VCD Lahore, Rawalpindi, and Islamabad and for PBL SO2 VCD Lahore, Mirpur, and Gujranwala. The results demonstrate that Pakistan’s entire population has been exposed to high PM2.5 concentrations for many years, with a mean annual value of 54.7 μg/cu. m, over all Pakistan from 2003 to 2020. This value exceeds Pakistan’s National Environmental Quality Standards (Pak-NEQS, i.e., <15 μg/cu. m annual mean) for ambient air defined by the Pakistan Environmental Protection Agency (Pak-EPA) as well as the WHO Interim Target-1 (i.e., mean annual PM2.5 <35 μg/cu. m). The spatial analyses of the concentrations of aerosols and trace gases in terms of population density, nighttime lights, land cover types, and fire location data, and the PSCF analysis indicate that Pakistan’s air quality is strongly affected by anthropogenic sources inside of Pakistan, with contributions from surrounding countries. Statistically significant positive (increasing) trends in PM1, PM2.5, PM10, tropospheric NO2 VCD, and SO2 VCD were observed in ~89%, ~67%, ~48%, 91%, and ~88% of the Pakistani cities (80 cities), respectively. This comprehensive analysis of aerosol and trace gas levels, their characteristics in spatio-temporal domains, and their trends over Pakistan, is the first of its kind. Results will be helpful to the Ministry of Climate Change (Government of Pakistan), Pak-EPA, SUPARCO (Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission), policymakers, and the local research community to mitigate air pollution and its effects on human health.

Muhammad Bilal↗

NASA NTRS2021

Faster Exo-Earth Yield for HabEx and LUVOIR via Extreme Precision Radial Velocity Prior Knowledge

The HabEx and LUVOIR mission concepts reported science yields for mission scenarios in which the instruments must search for potentially habitable planets, determine their orbits, and, if worthwhile, invest the integration time for a spectral characterization. We evaluate the impact of prior knowledge of planet existence and orbital parameters on yield for four mission concept architectures: HabEx 4m telescope with hybrid starshade and coronagraph, HabEx4m telescope with starshade only, HabEx 4m telescope with coronagraph only, and LUVOIR B8m telescope with coronagraph only. We use perfect prior knowledge to establish an upperbound on yield and use partial prior knowledge from a potential future extreme precision radial velocity (EPRV) instrument with3cm∕ssensitivity. We detail a modeling framework that per-forms dynamically responsive observation scheduling with realistic mission constraints. We evaluate exo-Earth yields against three metrics of spectral characterization for the four mission architectures and three levels of prior knowledge (none, partial, and perfect). The EPRV pro-vided prior knowledge increases yields by∼30%and accelerates by a factor of 3 to 6 the time to achieve half of the yield of the mission. Prior knowledge makes all the mission architectures more nimble and powerful, and most especially starshade-based architectures. With prior knowledge, a small telescope with a starshade can achieve comparable yield to a larger telescope with a coronagraph.

Rhonda Morgan↗

NASA NTRS2022

Linkages Between GRACE Water Storage, Hydrologic Extremes, and Climate Teleconnections in Major African Aquifers

Water resources management is a critical issue in Africa where many regions are subjected to sequential droughts and floods. The objective of our work was to assess spatiotemporal variability in water storage and related controls (climate, human intervention) in major African aquifers and consider approaches toward more sustainable development. Different approaches were used to track water storage, including GRACE/GRACE Follow On satellites for Total Water Storage (TWS); satellite altimetry for reservoir storage, MODIS satellites for vegetation indices, and limited ground-based monitoring. Results show that declining trends in TWS (60–73 km3 over the 18 yr GRACE record) were restricted to aquifers in northern Africa, controlled primarily by irrigation water use in the Nubian and NW Saharan aquifers. Rising TWS trends were found in aquifers in western Africa (23–49 km3), attributed to increased recharge from land use change and cropland expansion. Interannual variability dominated TWS variability in eastern and southern Africa, controlled primarily by climate extremes. Climate teleconnections, particularly El Nino Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole, strongly controlled droughts and floods in eastern and southern Africa. Huge aquifer storage in northern Africa suggests that the recent decadal storage declines should not impact the regional aquifers but may affect local conditions. Increasing groundwater levels in western Africa will need to be managed because of locally rising groundwater flooding. More climate resilient water management can be accomplished in eastern and southern Africa by storing water from wet to dry climate cycles. Accessing the natural water storage provided by aquifers in Africa is the obvious way to manage the variability between droughts and floods.

Africa water storage↗

NASA NTRS2020

High Performance Thermal Switch for Lunar and Planetary Surface Extreme Environments

This paper describes a high performance thermal switch for lunar/planetary extreme environments. This device has been given the name Reverse-Operation DTE Thermal Switch (or ROD-TSW). Two different prototypes were designed, built, and tested. Their basis of operation is the mating/de-mating of parallel flat metal surfaces driven by the differential thermal expansion (DTE) between mid-to-high CTE metal/polymer or metal-only end-pieces and a low CTE, low thermal conductivity (k) metal/polymer support rod. The requirements were to be fully ON above 300 K and fully OFF below 260 K. A series of four tests were carried out to verify/qualify the prototypes. In the first (non-vacuum) test, the thermal switches were cooled with freeze-spray and the non-conductive rod in the OFF thermal path allowed electrical resistance to confirm the 273 K as-designed ON/OFF actuation temperature. In the second (vacuum) test, a calibrated Q-meter was used, which indicated 5 W/K ON, 0.002 W/K OFF conductance (2500:1 ON/OFF ratio). To increase readiness to TRL6, a vibration test with pre/post thermal cycling followed by a 36-day test in a relevant environment were also carried out. This paper describes the development program and on-going related work at JPL.

Bugby, David C↗

NASA NTRS2020

High Performance Thermal Switch for Lunar and Planetary Surface Extreme Environments

Bugby, David C.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Ross 19B: An Extremely Cold Companion Discovered via the Backyard Worlds: Planet 9 Citizen Science Project

Through the Backyard Worlds: Planet 9 citizen science project, we have identified a wide-separation (∼10', ∼9900 au projected) substellar companion to the nearby (∼17.5 pc), mid-M dwarf Ross 19. We have developed a new formalism for determining chance alignment probabilities based on the BANYAN Σ tool, and find a 100% probability that this is a physically associated pair. Through a detailed examination of Ross 19A, we find that the system is metal-poor ([Fe/H] = −0.40 ± 0.12) with an age of 7.2 (+3.8, -3.6) Gyr. Combining new and existing photometry and astrometry, we find that Ross 19B is one of the coldest known wide-separation companions, with a spectral type on the T/Y boundary, an effective temperature of 500 (+115, -100) K, and a mass in the range 15–40 M(Jup). This new, extremely cold benchmark companion is a compelling target for detailed characterization with future spectroscopic observations using facilities such as the Hubble Space Telescope or James Webb Space Telescope.

Adam C. Schneider↗

NASA NTRS2022

Hunting extreme BL Lacertae blazars with Fermi-Large Area Telescope

The emission of very-high-energy (VHE) photons (⁠E > 100 GeV⁠) in blazars is closely connected to the production of ultra-relativistic particles and the role of these γ-ray sources as cosmic particle accelerators. This work focuses on a selection of 22 γ-ray objects from the 2BIGB catalogue of high-synchrotron-peaked sources, which are classified as blazar candidates of uncertain type in the 4FGL-DR2 catalogue. We study these sources by means of a re-analysis of the first 10 yr of γ-ray data taken with the Fermi-Large Area Telescope, including the attenuation by the extragalactic background light. Their broad-band spectral energy distributions are also evaluated, using multiwavelength archival data in the radio, optical, and X-ray bands, in terms of one-zone synchrotron-self-Compton models, adding an external Compton component when needed. Out of this analysis, we identify 17 new extreme high-synchrotron-peaked (EHSP) candidates and compare their physical parameters with those of prototypical EHSP blazars. Finally, the resulting models are used to assess their detectability by the present and future generation of ground-based Imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes. We find two VHE candidates within the reach of the current and next generation of Cherenkov telescopes: J0847.0−2336 and J1714.0−2029.

M Nievas Rosillo↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Extreme Problem Solving II: How Can 4 Astronauts do the Jobs of 80 Experts?

On past and present space missions, resilience is largely dependent on the problem-solving expertise of flight controllers at Mission Control on the ground. Missions to Mars will instead experience long communication delays and blackouts that require a small crew to detect, diagnose, and respond to critical events with only intermittent and limited real-time ground support. Our 2021 SpaceCHI paper “Extreme Problem Solving: The New Challenges of Deep Space Exploration” introduced the paradigm shift of increasingly Earth-independent mission operations and identified the capabilities that are not currently available on-board but will be needed to enable safe exploration beyond low-Earth orbit [1]. This paper investigates how the ground team achieves resilience today to inform what will be needed to achieve human-systems resilience on future long duration exploration missions – how can a crew of four generalists achieve the same outcomes as a team of 80+ experts? An actual ISS anomaly is analyzed and then reimagined under Mars transit conditions, to reveal critical decision-points and the onboard capabilities that will be needed for successful resolution. This paper also presents criteria for what makes urgent, unanticipated events so challenging to resolve.

human-systems integration architecture↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Behavioral Medicine Risks and Mitigations in Isolated, Confined, and Extreme Environments

Human spaceflight beyond low Earth orbit will present unique environmental challenges to astronauts’ operational performance and well-being. Crews will need to work and live in confined and hazardous environments for prolonged missions that involve variable workloads and limitations to privacy, food options, exercise capabilities, leisure outlets, and communication with ground support personnel and loved ones. Currently, behavioral and cognitive risks of spaceflight are mitigated by selecting exceptionally resilient crews and providing extensive individual and team skills training pre-mission, as well as in-mission crew support via a suite of countermeasures targeting sleep and performance optimization, stress management, family support, and team cohesion. However, current countermeasures are difficult or impossible to implement in long-distance exploration as they require real-time communication with Earth and routine resupply. New countermeasure approaches are needed to adapt and enhance the current complement for the new challenges ahead. NASA therefore conducts research at ground-based spaceflight analogs to aid in characterizing the behavioral and cognitive risks of living and working in isolated, confined, and extreme (ICE) operational environments. Antarctic research stations are among the few long-duration ICE analogs in existence and are therefore uniquely positioned to support behavioral medicine research to enable human exploration beyond Earth. In this review, we will discuss previous and ongoing efforts to better understand spaceflight behavioral medicine risks, as well as validate new countermeasure approaches for future missions to the moon and Mars.

Behavioral Health↗

NASA NTRS2022

Insights of Extreme Desert Ecology to the Habitats and Habitability of Mars

Desert ecosystems are a key repository for important Mars analog habitats and the extant or extinct life within them. We provide an overview of four main desert habitat types—soils, sediments, salts, and rocks—and the extreme microbiology living within them, with a particular focus on the hyperarid Atacama Desert and Dry Valleys of Antarctica, the driest and coldest limits for life on Earth. We construct habitat maps of Mars from an ecological perspective and the first estimates of study sample sizes of key habitats from historical and recent Mars orbiter and lander imagery and data. We review the lessons that can be drawn for the search for life on Mars from decades of microbial ecology work in end-member terrestrial deserts.

Deserts↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NSF-NASA Extreme Design & Wicked Problems Workshop

To learn how we might solve some important and challenging problems that require us to step into extreme or “wicked problem” domains. Where systems-level engineering and design are required to integrate with other domains. Connect with the external community to cross-pollinate on best methods, processes, and tools.

Innovation↗

NASA NTRS2019

Probing boson stars with extreme mass ratio inspirals

We propose to use gravitational waves from extreme mass ratio inspirals (EMRI), composed of a boson star and a supermassive black hole in the center of galaxies, as a new method to search for boson stars. Gravitational waves from EMRI have the advantage of being long-lasting within the frequency band of future space-based interferometer gravitational wave detectors and can accumulate large signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) for very sub-solar mass boson stars. Compared to gravitational waves from boson star binaries, which fall within the LIGO band, we find that much larger ranges of the mass and compactness of boson stars, as well as the underlying particle physics parameter space, can be probed by EMRI. We take tidal disruption of the boson stars into account and distinguish those which dissolve before the inner-most-stable-circular-orbit (ISCO) and those which dissolve after it. Due to the large number of cycles recorded, EMRIs can lead to a very precise mass determination of the boson star and distinguish it from standard astrophysical compact objects in the event of a signal. Tidal effects in inspiralling binary systems, as well as possible correlated electromagnetic signals, can also serve as potential discriminants.

Huai-Ke Guo↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Detailed Design of a Magnetically-Geared Actuator for Use in Extremely Cold Lunar Environments

A magnetically-geared actuator is being developed for extremely cold space environments to avoid the wiring and significant efficiency penalty associated with heating grease-lubricated actuators as well as the stringent life and loading constraints imposed by dry film lubricated mechanical gears. This paper describes the detailed design of this actuator, including the impactful requirements, thermal analysis, bearing loads, electromagnetic analysis and the impact of tolerance stack up, and structural analysis.

space mechanisms↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of Thermal Control Devices for Extreme Lunar Environments at Marshall Space Flight Center

NASA’s return to the moon brings many challenges, including issues with sustainable survival on the Lunar surface. One of the key challenges with sustainability is designing adequate thermal control systems that allow for surface systems to survive both during the day and the Lunar Night. The extreme thermal environments on the Lunar surface are a challenging design space for thermal engineers. At equatorial regions, the Lunar noon can be very hot, requiring systems with high heat rejection to the environment. At polar regions, such as those targeted by the return to the moon, the Lunar night temperatures plummet to -200 degrees Celsius or lower. Such temperatures are formidable and require specialized thermal control systems to allow surface assets to surface the long night.

Will Johnson↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Enabling Planetary In-Situ and Sample Return Missions: NASA Developed 3-D Woven Thermal Protection / Heatshield Technology for Extreme Entry Environment

Heatshield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) and 3-D Mid-Density Carbon-Phenolic (3MDCP) are two variants of 3-D Woven. TPS funded by STMD and SMD. HEEET was matured to TRL 6 in 2019, and SMD offered it as incentivized technology. Mars Sample Return Earth Entry System has baselined a seamless 3MDCP heatshield, and it will reach TRL 6 by 2025. HEEET and 3MDCP have been tested to withstand entry peak heat-flux ~ 4500 W/sq.cm, pressure ~ 6.5 atm, and shear ~ 4000 Pa. Bally Ribbon Mills and T.E.A.M. Inc developed looms and demonstrated their capability to weave HEEET and 3MDCP respectively. F.M.I. has demonstrated capability to form and resin infuse the preforms, and machine the TPS for final assembly. Expertise to integrate the parts reside at NASA, and NASA can transfer the knowhow to interested parties via technology transfer.

Ethiraj Venkatapathy↗