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DOE OSTI2025

A systematic decision-making methodology to formalize the selection of degree of realism in screening analysis of probabilistic risk assessment

In the nuclear power domain, Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is used to inform decision-making for Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Recently, there has been an increase in the utilization of modeling and simulation (M&S) to support the estimation of PRA inputs. Risk analysts should carefully select the PRA items that require M&S and their degree of realism (DoR) with consideration of the required resources. To support this selection, this article formulates a systematic decision-making approach for the DoR selection. The DoR selection is made based on two predictive decision-making attributes: the predicted differences in safety risk estimate (ΔSaRi) and the cost of analysis (ΔCAN). This research also develops and quantifies causal models to estimate ΔSaRi and ΔCAN. The causal model-based prediction of ΔSaRi and ΔCAN helps reduce the trial-and-error nature of the DoR selection in the PRA screening analysis and provides insights for DoR selection and the gradual refinements of PRA realism. This approach is demonstrated for a case study on fire PRA of NPPs, where an adequate DoR is selected from two fire models: an engineering correlation and a zone model.

Alkhatib, Sari [Department of Nuclear, Plasma, and↗

DOE OSTI2022

Towards 2+1 Flavor Lattice QCD Results for the Heavy Quark Diffusion Coefficient

We apply and extend a novel approach to non-perturbatively estimate the heavy-quark momentum diffusion coefficient κ, which is a key input for the theoretical description of heavy quarkonium production in heavy ion collisions, and is important for the understanding of the elliptic flow and nuclear suppression factor of heavy flavor hadrons. In the heavy-quark limit, this coefficient is encoded in the spectral functions of color-electric and color-magnetic correlators that we calculate on the lattice to high pre cision by applying gradient flow. In a recent study we have considered quenched QCD at 1.5 T c , where we performed a detailed study of the lat tice spacing and flow time dependence of the color-electric correlator, and, using theoretically well-established model fits for the spectral reconstruc tion, we estimated the heavy-quark diffusion coefficient. Equipped with the experience obtained in quenched QCD, we estimate $κ$ from 2+1 flavor QCD ensembles at small but finite lattice spacing and flow time without increasing systematic errors significantly.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Rigorous constraints on three-nucleon forces in chiral effective field theory from fast and accurate calculations of few-body observables

We explore the constraints on the three-nucleon force (3NF) of chiral effective field theory (χ EFT) that are provided by bound-state observables in the A = 3 and A = 4 sectors. Our statistically rigorous analysis incorporates experimental error, computational method uncertainty, and the uncertainty due to truncation of the χ EFT expansion at next-to-next-to-leading order. A consistent solution for the 3 H binding energy, the 4 He binding energy and radius, and the 3 H β-decay rate can only be obtained if χ EFT truncation errors are included in the analysis. Here, the β-decay rate is the only one of these that yields a nondegenerate constraint on the 3NF low-energy constants, which makes it crucial for the parameter estimation. We use eigenvector continuation for fast and accurate emulation of no-core shell model calculations of the few-nucleon observables. This facilitates sampling of the posterior probability distribution, allowing us to also determine the distributions of the parameters that quantify the truncation error. We find a χ EFT expansion parameter of Q = 0.33 ± 0.06 for these observables.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Daily grass reference evapotranspiration with Meteosat Second Generation shortwave radiation and reference ET products

Here we assess the accuracy of estimating daily grass reference evapotranspiration (PM-ET o ) using daily shortwave radiation (R s ) and reference evapotranspiration (ET REF ) products provided by the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) geostationary satellite delivered by the Satellite Applications Facility on Land Surface Analysis (LSA-SAF) framework. The accuracy of using reanalysis ERA5 shortwave radiation data (R s ERA5 ) provided by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is also evaluated. The assessments were performed using observed weather variables at 37 weather stations distributed across continental Portugal, where climate conditions range from semi-arid to humid, and 12 weather stations located in Azores islands, characterized by humid, windy and often cloudy conditions. This study's use of data from a variety of climate conditions contributed to a unique and innovative assessment of the usability of LSA-SAF and ERA5 products for ET o estimation. The first assessment focused on comparing LSA-SAF estimates of R s (R s LSA-SAF ) against ground stations (R s ground ). The results showed a good matching between the two R s data sets for continental Portugal but a tendency for R s LSA-SAF to under-estimate R s ground in the cloudy islands of Azores. ET o values computed using R s LSA-SAF data and observed temperature, humidity and wind speed (ET o LSA-SAF ) were then compared with PM-ET o estimates with ground-based data, which were used as benchmark; input data of temperature and humidity needed for PM-ET o were quality checked for surface aridity effects. It was observed that ET o LSA-SAF is strongly correlated with PM-ET o (R 2 > 0.97) for most locations in continental Portugal, with regression coefficient of a linear regression forced to the origin ranging between 0.95 and 1.05, mean root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.13 mm d –1 , and Nash and Sutcliff efficiency of modeling (EF) above 0.95. For most Azores locations, ET o LSA-SAF over-estimated PM-ET o . This is likely a consequence of the high spatio-temporal heterogeneity of weather conditions that occur in these oceanic islands together with the different footprints of satellite (averaged over the pixel) and station observations. Reanalysis ERA5 shortwave radiation data presented similar behavior to the LSA-SAF products, however with slightly lower accuracy. The daily LSA-SAF ET REF product (ET REF LSA-SAF ) was assessed and results have shown a good accuracy of this product, with acceptable RMSE and high EF values, for continental Portugal but a low accuracy for the Azores islands. A simplified bias correction approach was shown to improve both ET o derived from the LSA-SAF products, namely for Azores stations, which seem to be representative of smaller areas. The use of the FAO-PM temperature approach (PMT) was also assessed using the R s LSA-SAF and R s ERA5 data, which showed a superiority of the LSA-SAF product for ET o estimations (ET o PMT LSA-SAF ). No significant differences (p < 0.05) were observed in terms of the median value of the RMSE when adopting ET o PMT and ET REF LSA-SAF . Differently, results showed that using the R s LSA-SAF in the PMT approach (ET o PMT LSA-SAF ) produces significantly better RMSE results than ET o PMT and ET REF LSA-SAF . Overall, the performed assessment allows concluding that the use of R s LSA-SAF, and to a lesser extent the use of the R s ERA5 , highly improves the accuracy of computation of ET o when R s observations are not available, including when only temperature data are accessible. The use of the ET REF LSA-SAF product is a good alternative when observed weather data are not available.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Joint state-parameter estimation for the reduced fracture model via the united filter

Here, in this paper, we introduce an effective United Filter method for jointly estimating the solution state and physical parameters in flow and transport problems within fractured porous media. Fluid flow and transport in fractured porous media are critical in subsurface hydrology, geophysics, and reservoir geomechanics. Reduced fracture models, which represent fractures as lower-dimensional interfaces, enable efficient multi-scale simulations. However, reduced fracture models also face accuracy challenges due to modeling errors and uncertainties in physical parameters such as permeability and fracture geometry. To address these challenges, we propose a United Filter method, which integrates the Ensemble Score Filter (EnSF) for state estimation with the Direct Filter for parameter estimation. EnSF, based on a score-based diffusion model framework, produces ensemble representations of the state distribution without deep learning. Meanwhile, the Direct Filter, a recursive Bayesian inference method, estimates parameters directly from state observations. The United Filter combines these methods iteratively: EnSF estimates are used to refine parameter values, which are then fed back to improve state estimation. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the United Filter method surpasses the state-of-the-art Augmented Ensemble Kalman Filter, delivering more accurate state and parameter estimation for reduced fracture models. This framework also provides a robust and efficient solution for PDE-constrained inverse problems with uncertainties and sparse observations.

Bayesian inference↗

DOE OSTI2021

Assessing boundary condition and parametric uncertainty in numerical-weather-prediction-modeled, long-term offshore wind speed through machine learning and analog ensemble

To accurately plan and manage wind power plants, not only does the time-varying wind resource at the site of interest need to be assessed but also the uncertainty connected to this estimate. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models at the mesoscale represent a valuable way to characterize the wind resource offshore, given the challenges connected with measuring hub-height wind speed. The boundary condition and parametric uncertainty associated with modeled wind speed is often estimated by running a model ensemble. However, creating an NWP ensemble of long-term wind resource data over a large region represents a computational challenge. Here, we propose two approaches to temporally extrapolate wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty using a more convenient setup in which a mesoscale ensemble is run over a short-term period (1 year), and only a single model covers the desired long-term period (20 year). We quantify hub-height wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty from the short-term model ensemble as its normalized across-ensemble standard deviation. Then, we develop and apply a gradient-boosting model and an analog ensemble approach to temporally extrapolate such uncertainty to the full 20-year period, for which only a single model run is available. As a test case, we consider offshore wind resource characterization in the California Outer Continental Shelf. Both of the proposed approaches provide accurate estimates of the long-term wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty across the region (R 2 >0.75), with the gradient-boosting model slightly outperforming the analog ensemble in terms of bias and centered root-mean-square error. At the three offshore wind energy lease areas in the region, we find a long-term median hourly uncertainty between 10 % and 14 % of the mean hub-height wind speed values. Finally, we assess the physical variability in the uncertainty estimates. In general, we find that the wind speed uncertainty increases closer to land. Also, neutral conditions have smaller uncertainty than the stable and unstable cases, and the modeled wind speed in winter has less boundary condition and parametric sensitivity than summer.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Simulation-Based Recovery Action Analysis Using the EMRALD Dynamic Risk Assessment Tool

A recovery action is defined as the action that prevents deviant conditions from producing unwanted effects. It generally indicates a kind of countermeasure performed in response to a failure of human action. The recovery actions especially play an important role in complex systems like nuclear power plants (NPPs), which consist of highly sophisticated controllers to ensure that desired performance and safety must be achieved and maintained. This is because a combination of human error and its recovery failure may be able to cause a catastrophic effect on a system. Analyzing recovery actions has been a critical part of HRA, which is a technique to evaluate human errors and provide human error probabilities (HEPs) for application in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). If recovery actions are not adequately analyzed and applied to PSA models, the PSA results may be under-estimated or be not able to reasonably account for the failure of human actions in the context of PSA. For this reason, some regulatory documents such as ASME/ANS RA-Sb-2013 by the American Society for Mechanical Engineers and the American Nuclear Society and NUREG-1792 by U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission have emphasized the importance of recovery analysis within the HRA. A couple of existing HRA methods, such as the Technique for Human Error-Rate Prediction (THERP), the Cause-Based Decision Tree (CBDT), and the Korean Standard HRA (K-HRA), have respectively suggested their own approaches to the HRA recovery analysis. However, there are a couple of limitations to treating recovery actions using only the current HRA methods available. The biggest limitation is that the existing recovery analysis does not explicitly consider a variety of recovery action types and recovery sequences as they occur in actual NPPs. To handle the limitations of existing recovery analysis, this study proposes a simulation-based recovery analysis method using the Event Modeling Risk Assessment Using Linked Diagram (EMRALD) software. The EMRALD software is a dynamic simulation tool for PSA. It supports realistic and dynamic modeling of human actions as they would be performed at NPPs. It is also favorable to simultaneously model the specific moment at which an action is performed, the time it takes to perform the action, and the failure probability of that action. In this paper, a detailed methodology for modeling recovery actions in the simulation platform is proposed with a couple of examples. Then, outputs from the simulation are discussed as reviewing if this novel approach can complement the challenges of existing recovery analyses.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Realizing string-net condensation: Fibonacci anyon braiding for universal gates and sampling chromatic polynomials

Abstract The remarkable complexity of a topologically ordered many-body quantum system is encoded in the characteristics of its anyons. Quintessential predictions emanating from this complexity employ the Fibonacci string net condensate (Fib SNC) and its anyons: sampling Fib-SNC would estimate chromatic polynomials while exchanging its anyons would implement universal quantum computation. However, physical realizations remained elusive. We introduce a scalable dynamical string net preparation (DSNP) that constructs Fib SNC and its anyons on reconfigurable graphs suitable for near-term superconducting processors. Coupling the DSNP approach with composite error-mitigation on deep circuits, we create, measure, and braids Fibonacci anyons; charge measurements show 94% accuracy, and exchanging the anyons yields the expected golden ratioϕwith 98% average accuracy. We then sample the Fib SNC to estimate chromatic polynomial atϕ + 2 for several graphs. Our results establish the proof of principle for using Fib-SNC and its anyons for fault-tolerant universal quantum computation and aim at a classically hard problem.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2021

hr-Adaptivity for nonconforming high-order meshes with the target matrix optimization paradigm

In this study, we present an $hr$ -adaptivity framework for optimization of high-order meshes. This work extends the r -adaptivity method by Dobrev et al. (Comput Fluids, 2020), where we utilized the Target-Matrix Optimization Paradigm (TMOP) to minimize a functional that depends on each element’s current and target geometric parameters: element aspect-ratio , size , skew , and rotation . Since fixed mesh topology limits the ability to achieve the target size and aspect-ratio at each position, in this paper, we augment the r -adaptivity framework with nonconforming adaptive mesh refinement to further reduce the error with respect to the target geometric parameters. The proposed formulation, referred to as $hr$ -adaptivity, introduces TMOP-based quality estimators to satisfy the aspect-ratio target via anisotropic refinements and size target via isotropic refinements in each element of the mesh. The methodology presented is purely algebraic, extends to both simplices and hexahedra/quadrilaterals of any order, and supports nonconforming isotropic and anisotropic refinements in 2D and 3D. Using a problem with a known exact solution, we demonstrate the effectiveness of $hr$ -adaptivity over both r - and $h$ -adaptivity in obtaining similar accuracy in the solution with significantly fewer mesh nodes. We also present several examples that show that $hr$ -adaptivity can help satisfy geometric targets even when $r$ -adaptivity fails to do so, due to the topology of the initial mesh.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

CFD modeling of natural circulation in LiCl-KCl molten salt closed loop

Characterizing flow within a molten salt closed-loop system is crucial for assessing system requirements, evaluating performance, and identifying potential flaws. Direct flow measurement using instrumentation is challenging due to extreme environmental conditions and the limitations associated with measuring molten salt flow under natural convection. Here, this study aims to provide comprehensive insights into the thermal-hydraulic behavior of a closed loop, with a particular focus on temperature distribution and velocity prediction. The Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model demonstrated the capability to effectively simulate and predict both temperature distributions and flow velocities within the molten salt loop. The CFD model's predictive capability was validated by its ability to replicate temperature measurements under varying boundary conditions. The analysis revealed that the CFD model tends to underpredict temperatures in the cold leg and overpredict them in the hot leg, highlighting the need for continuous model refinement and acknowledging the limitations of using a steady-state approach. Furthermore, the potential of using external temperature measurements to estimate internal molten salt temperatures and predict flow velocity was explored, revealing that this approach could introduce up to a 5.5% error in flow velocity calculations. Line probes mapping temperature distributions across the tube's cross-section and molten salt provided valuable insights into temperature gradients, emphasizing the need for a thermal conductivity equation for molten salt with lower uncertainty to achieve more accurate temperature predictions of the system.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Epidural anesthesia needle guidance by forward-view endoscopic optical coherence tomography and deep learning

Epidural anesthesia requires injection of anesthetic into the epidural space in the spine. Accurate placement of the epidural needle is a major challenge. To address this, we developed a forward-view endoscopic optical coherence tomography (OCT) system for real-time imaging of the tissue in front of the needle tip during the puncture. We tested this OCT system in porcine backbones and developed a set of deep learning models to automatically process the imaging data for needle localization. A series of binary classification models were developed to recognize the five layers of the backbone, including fat, interspinous ligament, ligamentum flavum, epidural space, and spinal cord. The classification models provided an average classification accuracy of 96.65%. During puncture, it is important to maintain a safe distance between the needle tip and the dura mater. Regression models were developed to estimate that distance based on the OCT imaging data. Based on the Inception architecture, our models achieved a mean absolute percentage error of 3.05% ± 0.55%. Overall, our results validated the technical feasibility of using this novel imaging strategy to automatically recognize different tissue structures and measure the distances ahead of the needle tip during the epidural needle placement.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Cross-correlation of Planck CMB lensing with DESI-like LRGs

ABSTRACT Cross-correlations between the lensing of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and other tracers of large-scale structure provide a unique way to reconstruct the growth of dark matter, break degeneracies between cosmology and galaxy physics, and test theories of modified gravity. We detect a cross-correlation between Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI)-like luminous red galaxies (LRGs) selected from DECam Legacy Survey imaging and CMB lensing maps reconstructed with the Planck satellite at a significance of S/N = 27.2 over scales ℓmin = 30, ℓmax = 1000. To correct for magnification bias, we determine the slope of the LRG cumulative magnitude function at the faint limit as s = 0.999 ± 0.015, and find corresponding corrections of the order of a few per cent for $C^{\kappa g}_{\ell }, C^{gg}_{\ell }$ across the scales of interest. We fit the large-scale galaxy bias at the effective redshift of the cross-correlation zeff ≈ 0.68 using two different bias evolution agnostic models: a HaloFit times linear bias model where the bias evolution is folded into the clustering-based estimation of the redshift kernel, and a Lagrangian perturbation theory model of the clustering evaluated at zeff. We also determine the error on the bias from uncertainty in the redshift distribution; within this error, the two methods show excellent agreement with each other and with DESI survey expectations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Influence of inhomogeneous stochasticity on the falsifiability of mean-field theories and examples from accretion disc modelling

ABSTRACT Despite spatial and temporal fluctuations in turbulent astrophysical systems, mean-field theories can be used to describe their secular evolution. However, observations taken over time scales much shorter than dynamical time scales capture a system in a single state of its turbulence ensemble. Comparing with mean-field theory can falsify the latter only if the theory is additionally supplied with a quantified precision. The central limit theorem provides appropriate estimates to the precision only when fluctuations contribute linearly to an observable and with constant coherent scales. Here, we introduce an error propagation formula that relaxes both limitations, allowing for non-linear functional forms of observables and inhomogeneous coherent scales and amplitudes of fluctuations. The method is exemplified in the context of accretion disc theories, where inhomogeneous fluctuations in the surface temperature are propagated to the disc emission spectrum – the latter being a non-linear and non-local function of the former. The derived precision depends non-monotonically on emission frequency. Using the same method, we investigate how binned spectral fluctuations in telescope data change with the spectral resolving power. We discuss the broader implications for falsifiability of a mean-field theory.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impulsive Magnetic Anomaly Detection At the 100-m Scale With an Array of Induction Coil Magnetometers

We demonstrate magnetic anomaly detection (MAD) using an array of 24 commercial induction coil magnetometers with stand-off distances from a pulsed 99.8(3) kA·m 2 magnetic dipole source of 260–1200 m. The sparse array is used to estimate the magnetic dipole location, magnitude, and orientation. We demonstrate how independent component analysis (ICA) improves the accuracy and precision of the magnetometer array when estimating the dipole parameters. Using sensor responses recorded from individual source pulses, we estimate the dipole location to within 29 ± 2 m, the magnitude to within 3 ± 3 kA·m 2 , and dipole orientation error to within 19 ± 0.6°.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Erratum to: Data Fusion to Support Integrated Nuclear Detonation Detection [Slides]

The original document (LA-UR-22-29547) contained minor equation errors that approximate correct equations that couple the multi-sensor, serial system detector thresholds for a seismic Rayleigh wave detector and an acoustic energy detector. Those errors appeared on slides 62-67. This erratum associates the following slides with the erroneous slides. The numbers of the erroneous slides are marked at the upper right in small text in orange. A result of those errors over-predict the performance of the two-sensor serial network, that is, the former document provides an optimistic estimate of system performance.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Drop Interactions with the Conical Shock Structure Generated by a Mach 4.5 Projectile

This work presents measurements of liquid drop deformation and breakup time behind approximately conical shock waves and evaluates the predictive capabilities of low-order models and correlations developed using planar shock experiments. A conical shock was approximated by firing a bullet at Mach 4.5 past a vertical column of water drops with a mean initial diameter of $192$ $\mu$m. The time-resolved drop position and maximum transverse dimension were characterized using backlit stereo images taken at 500 kHz. The gas density and velocity fields experienced by the drops were estimated using a Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes simulation of the bullet. Classical correlations predict drop breakup times and deformation in error by a factor of 3 or more. The Taylor analogy breakup (TAB) model predicts deformed drop diameters that agree within the confidence bounds of the ensemble-averaged experimental values using a dimensionless constant $C$ 2 = $2$ compared to the accepted value $C$ 2 = $2/3$. In conclusion, results demonstrate existing correlations are inadequate for predicting the drop response to the three-dimensional relaxation of the flowfield downstream of a conical-like shock and suggest the TAB model results represent a path toward improved predictions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

Inpainting radar missing data regions with deep learning

Abstract. Missing and low-quality data regions are a frequent problem for weather radars. They stem from a variety of sources: beam blockage, instrument failure, near-ground blind zones, and many others. Filling in missing data regions is often useful for estimating local atmospheric properties and the application of high-level data processing schemes without the need for preprocessing and error-handling steps – feature detection and tracking, for instance. Interpolation schemes are typically used for this task, though they tend to produce unrealistically spatially smoothed results that are not representative of the atmospheric turbulence and variability that are usually resolved by weather radars. Recently, generative adversarial networks (GANs) have achieved impressive results in the area of photo inpainting. Here, they are demonstrated as a tool for infilling radar missing data regions. These neural networks are capable of extending large-scale cloud and precipitation features that border missing data regions into the regions while hallucinating plausible small-scale variability. In other words, they can inpaint missing data with accurate large-scale features and plausible local small-scale features. This method is demonstrated on a scanning C-band and vertically pointing Ka-band radar that were deployed as part of the Cloud Aerosol and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign. Three missing data scenarios are explored: infilling low-level blind zones and short outage periods for the Ka-band radar and infilling beam blockage areas for the C-band radar. Two deep-learning-based approaches are tested, a convolutional neural network (CNN) and a GAN that optimize pixel-level error or combined pixel-level error and adversarial loss respectively. Both deep-learning approaches significantly outperform traditional inpainting schemes under several pixel-level and perceptual quality metrics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Classification of Dissolution Events Using Fusion of Effluents Measurements and Classifiers

Classifiers for dissolution events at a radiochemical processing facility are studied using gamma spectra measurements of effluents collected by a high purity germanium detector located at its off-gas stack. Data sets collected at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Radiochemical Engineering Development Center under a Pu dissolution campaign spanning a three months period are utilized. Features corresponding to the activity levels of 15 radionuclides, including isotopes of iodine, krypton, and xenon, that are indicated by the target decay chains, are computed from the spectra at 1 hour intervals. A conceptualization diagram is developed to reflect the steps from the source to measurement to feature computation that depend on fission products indicated by decay chains, chemical processing, and effluents transport to the off-gas stack. A diverse set of eight classifiers based on different design principles are trained using the ground truth data for this campaign, and the outputs of top three classifiers, namely, classification trees, Ensemble of Trees (EOT), and k-nearest neighbor, are combined using EOT classifier-fuser. Our results show that for 5-fold cross validation, features associated with isotopes of xenon provide the lowest classification error among the different elements across the classifiers; the classification error is furthered improved when all 15 isotope features are used by each classifier, and it is again improved by the fusion of three classifiers. Further reduction in classification error is achieved by using a measurement window of 1-2 days which is identified based on half-life time estimates of the isotopes; it is long enough for the stabilization of feature estimates while being short enough not to be affected by the follow on dissolution events. As a net result of feature and classifier fusion, combined with the incorporation of decay chain and isotope half-life information, this approach achieves 98% detection rate while maintaining a false alarm rate under 2% for this data set.

Rao, Nageswara↗