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DOE OSTI2022

Contribution of Tibetan Plateau ecosystems to local and remote precipitation through moisture recycling

The ecosystems of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) provide multiple important ecosystem services that benefit both local populations and those beyond, such as through climate regulation services on precipitation for East Asia and China. However, the precipitation regulation service of the TP ecosystems for supplying moisture and maintaining precipitation is yet to be evaluated. In this study, we used the moisture recycling framework and a moisture tracking model to quantify the precipitation regulation services of TP ecosystems for their contribution to precipitation. We found TP ecosystems contributed substantially to local and downwind precipitation, with a declined contribution from 221 mm/year for the TP and neighboring areas, to <10 mm/year for eastern China and other surrounding countries. Among ecosystem types, grassland contributed most to precipitation, followed by barren and snow lands, forests, and shrublands. In terms of seasonality, precipitation contribution from TP ecosystems was greater in summer months than in non-summer months for western China, while the opposite was true for eastern China – though the magnitude was much smaller. Over the past two decades, the significant evapotranspiration increases in TP translated to a widespread increase in precipitation contribution for TP and downwind beneficiary regions from 2000 to 2020. Our study provides a quantitative way to understand the precipitation regulation services of TP ecosystems through moisture recycling, substantiating their key role to safeguard precipitation and the water cycle for downwind regions– effectively acting as an ecological security shelter that could be perceived by the public.

Li, Yan↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improved Diagnosis of Precipitation Type with LightGBM Machine Learning

Abstract Existing precipitation-type algorithms have difficulty discerning the occurrence of freezing rain and ice pellets. These inherent biases are not only problematic in operational forecasting but also complicate the development of model-based precipitation-type climatologies. To address these issues, this paper introduces a novel light gradient-boosting machine (LightGBM)-based machine learning precipitation-type algorithm that utilizes reanalysis and surface observations. By comparing it with the Bourgouin precipitation-type algorithm as a baseline, we demonstrate that our algorithm improves the critical success index (CSI) for all examined precipitation types. Moreover, when compared with the precipitation-type diagnosis in reanalysis, our algorithm exhibits increased F1 scores for snow, freezing rain, and ice pellets. Subsequently, we utilize the algorithm to compute a freezing-rain climatology over the eastern United States. The resulting climatology pattern aligns well with observations; however, a significant mean bias is observed. We interpret this bias to be influenced by both the algorithm itself and assumptions regarding precipitation processes, which include biases associated with freezing drizzle, precipitation occurrence, and regional synoptic weather patterns. To mitigate the overall bias, we propose increasing the precipitation cutoff from 0.04 to 0.25 mm h −1 , as it better reflects the precision of precipitation observations. This adjustment yields a substantial reduction in the overall bias. Finally, given the strong performance of LightGBM in predicting mixed precipitation episodes, we anticipate that the algorithm can be effectively utilized in operational settings and for diagnosing precipitation types in climate model outputs. Significance Statement Freezing rain can have significant impacts on transportation and infrastructure, making accurate prediction of precipitation types crucial. In this study, we use a machine learning method known as LightGBM to predict precipitation types. We show that the new algorithm performs better than the existing methods for all precipitation types examined. Additionally, we compute a freezing-rain climatology over the eastern United States. Although the resulting climatology pattern corresponds well to observations, the algorithm overpredicts freezing-rain occurrence. We argue that this bias can be substantially reduced by increasing the precipitation cutoff from 0.04 to 0.25 mm h −1 . Overall, this work highlights the potential of the LightGBM algorithm for both weather forecasting and diagnosing precipitation types in climate models.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2017

Dynamical Links between the Decadal Variability of the Oyashio and Kuroshio Extensions

Rather than a single and continuous boundary current outflow, long-term satellite observations reveal that the Oyashio Extension (OE) in the North Pacific Subarctic Gyre comprises two independent, northeast–southwest-slanted front systems. With a mean latitude along 40°N, the western OE front exists primarily west of 153°E and is a continuation of the subarctic gyre western boundary current. The eastern OE front, also appearing along 40°N, is located between 153° and 170°E, whose entity is disconnected from its western counterpart. During 1982–2016, both of the OE fronts exhibit prominent decadal fluctuations, although their signals show little contemporaneous correlation. An upper-ocean temperature budget analysis based on the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, phase II (ECCO2), state estimate reveals that the advective temperature flux convergence plays a critical role in determining the low-frequency temperature changes relating to the OE fronts. Specifically, the western OE front variability is controlled by the decadal mesoscale eddy modulations in the upstream Kuroshio Extension (KE). An enhanced eddy activity increases the poleward heat transport and works to strengthen the western OE front. The eastern OE front variability, on the other hand, is dictated by both the meridional shift of the KE position and the circulation intensity change immediately north of the eastern OE. Different baroclinic adjustment speeds for the KE and OE are found to cause the in-phase changes between these latter two processes. Lack of contemporaneous correlation between the decadal western and eastern OE variability is found to be related to the interaction of the meridionally migrating KE jet with the Shatsky Rise near 159°E.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Complex Fault Geometry of the 2020 M ww 6.5 Monte Cristo Range, Nevada, Earthquake Sequence

On 15 May 2020 an M ww 6.5 earthquake occurred beneath the Monte Cristo Range in the Mina Deflection region of western Nevada. Rapid deployment of eight temporary seismic stations enabled detailed analysis of its productive and slowly decaying aftershock sequence (p=0.8), which included ~18,000 autodetected events in 3.5 months. Double-difference, waveform-based relative relocation of 16,714 earthquakes reveals a complex network of faults, many of which cross the inferred 35-km-long east–northeast-striking, left-lateral mainshock rupture. Seismicity aligns with left-lateral, right-lateral, and normal mechanism moment tensors of 128 of the largest earthquakes. The mainshock occurred near the middle of the aftershock zone at the intersection of two distinct zones of seismicity. In the western section, numerous subparallel, shallow, north-northeast-striking faults form a broad flower-structure-like fault mesh that coalesces at depth into a near-vertical, left-lateral fault. We infer the near-vertical fault to be a region of significant slip in the mainshock and an eastward extension of the left-lateral Candelaria fault. Near the mainshock hypocenter, seismicity occurs on a northeast-striking, west-dipping structure that extends north from the eastern Columbus Salt Marsh normal fault. Together, these two intersecting structures bound the Columbus Salt Marsh tectonic basin. East of this intersection and the mainshock hypocenter, seismicity occurs in a narrow, near-vertical, east-northeast-striking fault zone through to its eastern terminus. At the eastern end, the aftershock zone broadens and extends northwest toward the southern extension of the northwest-striking, right-lateral Petrified Springs fault system. The eastern section hosts significantly fewer aftershocks than the western section, but has more moment release. We infer that shallow aftershocks throughout the system highlight fault-fracture meshes that connect mapped fault systems at depth. Here, comparing earthquake data with surface ruptures and a simple geodetic fault model sheds light on the complexity of this recent M 6.5 Walker Lane earthquake.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2013

Spatially-Explicit Bat Impact Screening Tool for Wind Turbine Siting

As the U.S. seeks to increase energy production from renewable energy sources, development of wind power resources continues to grow. One of the most important ecological issues restricting wind energy development, especially the siting of wind turbines, is the potential adverse effect on bats. High levels of bat fatality have been recorded at a number of wind energy facilities, especially in the eastern United States. The U.S. Department of Energy contracted with Versar, Inc., and Exponent to develop a spatially-explicit site screening tool to evaluate the mortality of bats resulting from interactions (collisions or barotrauma) with wind turbines. The resulting Bat Vulnerability Assessment Tool (BVAT) presented in this report integrates spatial information about turbine locations, bat habitat features, and bat behavior as it relates to possible interactions with turbines. A model demonstration was conducted that focuses on two bat species, the eastern red bat (Lasiurus borealis) and the Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis). The eastern red bat is a relatively common tree-roosting species that ranges broadly during migration in the Eastern U.S., whereas the Indiana bat is regional species that migrates between a summer range and cave hibernacula. Moreover, Indiana bats are listed as endangered, and so the impacts to this species are of particular interest.

BATS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Developing high-resolution spatial data of migration corridors for avian species of concern in regions of high potential wind development

The future of the US economy, our national security, and our environmental quality all depend on decreasing our reliance on foreign oil and on fossil fuels. An essential component of decreasing this reliance is the development of alternative energy sources. Wind power is among the most important alternative energy sources currently available, and the mid-Atlantic region is a primary focus for wind power development. In addition to being important to the development of wind power, the mid-Atlantic region holds a special responsibility for the conservation of the eastern North America's golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos). This small population breeds in northeastern Canada, winters in the southern Appalachians, and nearly all of these birds pass through the mid-Atlantic region twice each year. Movement of these birds is not random and, particularly during spring and autumn, migrating golden eagles concentrate in a narrow 30-50 mile wide corridor in central Pennsylvania. Thus, because the fate of these rare birds may depend on responsible management of the habitat they use it is critical to use research to identify ways to mitigate prospective impacts on this and similar raptor species. The goal of this project was to develop high-resolution spatial risk maps showing migration corridors of and habitat use by eastern golden eagles in regions of high potential for wind development. To accomplish this, we first expanded existing models of raptor migration for the eastern USA to identify broad-scale migration patterns. We then used data from novel high-resolution tracking devices to discover routes of passage and detailed flight behavior of individual golden eagles throughout the eastern USA. Finally, we integrated these data and models to predict population-level migration patterns and individual eagle flight behavior on migration. We then used this information to build spatially explicit, probabilistic maps showing relative risk to birds from wind development. This project has numerous benefits to people and to wildlife, primarily because it will provide a framework for safer and less controversial development of wind power. Because golden eagles are an important "umbrella" for other raptors, this project benefits a suite of species that may be impacted by wind turbines. Finally this work is a recognized priority for central Appalachian states and it is explicitly called for in, and meets the goals of, numerous state wildlife conservation plans. The final product we created, a region-wide map of relative risk to eagles of development of wind power, has allowed us to make specific recommendations regarding siting and operation of and mitigation at wind facilities. This approach also serves as a model for other projects to protect eagles in other places and to conserve suites of species beyond raptors.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2018

FY2018 Discovery Through Situational Awareness: Anomalies, Oscillations, and Classification

This technical report is a summary of work performed under the DOE GMLC program under the task titled “Discovery through Situational Awareness”. The focus of this work was to apply big data, statistical techniques to PMU data to do the following: 1) baseline PMU data and find anomalies with a focus on phase angle pairs, 2) identify the frequencies of dominant modal oscillations between different parts of a power system, and 3) identify and classify frequency events in PMU data. This work was performed on PMU data from the Western Interconnect. Many of these algorithms will be applied to wide area phase angle pair data on the Eastern Interconnect in a tool called ESAMS (Eastern Interconnect Situational Awareness Monitoring System). ESAMS was built by EPG (Electric Power Group) and PNNL and is currently being installed on the Eastern Interconnect. The results discussed in this report were made from 14 PMUs from data ranging from Oct 2016 to May 2018. The PMU data were measured 60 times each second. Fourteen phase angle pairs were included, with reactive and active power being calculated at 14 sites. All results have been de-identified for this report. The methodologies applied in the ESAMS tool are described in Section 2. A baseline of PMU data is created using the last 120 days of data. This baseline describes typical behavior as understood from the data. The baseline is then applied to the next day’s data and anomalies from that baseline are identified. Plots are created to help describe what is anomalous during that specific moment in time. These algorithms are currently being installed on the Eastern Interconnect. FY19 work will include discussing the results and findings from the ESAMS tool. A new method of identifying the frequencies of dominant modal oscillations between different parts of a power system is described in Section 3. A list of 199 frequency events provided by Bonneville Power Administration were used to create algorithms to detect frequency events and to create classification rules that can be used to identify future frequency events. Section 4 discusses the results the performance of 7 different event detection, clustering-based methods. Accuracy percentages ranged from 93.59% to 99.16%, with most methods being very fast. GBM (Gradient Boosting Machine) performed well and quickly. These 7 different methods were also tested to determine how well each built classification rules on training data and then applied those rules to identify future frequency events. Accuracy percentages ranged from 89.09% to 99.9%, with all methods performing quickly. GLM (General Linear Model) was viewed as the top performer when considering accuracy and processing time. Because the list of events consisted of 80% of them as active power events and only 20% as faults, all methods struggled to identify events as faults. Small faults were especially difficult to identify. A separate algorithm was created to help with this. Additional work will be done in FY19 on event detection using more data and more events and refinements to the methods.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Advancing the quantification of aerosol-cloud interactions with the CALIPSO-CloudSat-Aqua/MODIS record

Aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions are assessed over the non-polar ocean using more than 11 years of combined Aqua-MODIS, CALIPSO-CALIOP, and CloudSat products. The analysis first shows the benefit of incorporating vertically resolved aerosol extinction coefficient (σext) in aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) assessments, demonstrating that: σext vertically collocated with the cloud layer () correlates best with cloud droplet number concentration (Nd), column-integrated aerosol optical depth (AOD) cannot explain the Nd variability in the extratropics, and the S-shape of the AOD-Nd relationship reported in previous studies is not replicated when using instead of AOD, with a Nd- linearity more consistent with in-situ studies over the ocean. ACI metric, estimated as the log-scale regression between CALIOP and MODIS Nd reveals that the eastern Pacific is the region with the strongest ACI, followed by the Southern Ocean. The susceptibility of clouds to changes in their liquid water path (LWP) and frequency of precipitation followed a 2-step calculation by combining the Nd- regression (ACI) with the regression between these macrophysical variables and Nd. LWP susceptibility is negative (LWP decreases with aerosol loading) and statistically significant over the eastern Pacific, eastern Atlantic, and extratropics. In contrast, vast areas of the tropical and subtropical ocean feature negligible changes in LWP with aerosol. Precipitation frequency susceptibility is negative, but the values are only significant over the coastal eastern Pacific and Atlantic. The findings suggest that previous modeling assessments relying on AOD may need to be revisited by taking advantage of the synergy between passive and active sensors.

Li, Zhujun↗

NASA NTRS1972

Discovery of two lunar features, part H

Study of the Apollo 16 photographs resulted in the discovery of two large features in the far side highlands near the eastern limb of the moon not indicated on existing lunar maps and charts. The larger unnamed feature is a three-ringed 1000 km diameter basin, and the smaller feature is a 200 km diameter crater that is located between the eastern middle and outer rings of this basin. This crater surrounds Becvar Crater. Since these newly discovered features are large enough and significant enough to warrant the assignment of names, the following names have been recommended to the Committee on Nomenclature of the IAU for consideration. Arabia is the name suggested for the newly-found basin to honor Arab contributions to astronomy. Rupes Sibericus (Siberian Scarp) is suggested for the 1 km high scarp that borders the eastern part of the middle ring of the basin. Rupes Apalaches (Appalachian Scarp) was suggested for the 2 km high scarp that borders the western part of the middle ring of the basin. Necho has been suggested for the new found 200 km diameter crater between the eastern middle and outer rings of the basin.

El-Baz, F.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Petrochemical constraints on lateral transport during lunar basin formation

Lunar ANT petrochemistry correlates with longitude, allowing the sampled region of the moon to be divided into three geochemical provinces: western (Apollo 12 and 14), near-eastern (Apollo 11, 15, 16 and 17) and far-eastern (Luna 16, 20 and 24). A western ANT rock has a far greater Eu anomaly for a given Sm content than does a near-eastern ANT rock, which is in turn has a somewhat greater Eu anomaly than does a far-eastern ANT rock. Distinct differences are also observed in Sc/Sm and Ti/Sm ratios (western ANT rocks have lower ratios) and in the abundances of alkali-rich anorthosites (five of the six known anorthosites from the west are approximately four times richer in Na and K than are ferroan anorthosites, whereas none of the 40 known anorthosites from the near east is alkali-rich). The existence of this distinct correlation of ANT geochemical properties with longitude implies that even during the first few hundred m.y. of lunar history basin-forming impacts were not capable of efficiently redistributing material laterally across the lunar surface.

Warren, P. H.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Kinematics of a large-scale intraplate extending lithosphere: The Basin-Range

Upper lithospheric structure of the Cordilleran Basin Range (B-R) is characterised by an E-W symmetry of velocity layering. The crust is 25 km thick on its eastern active margin, thickening to 30 km within the central portion and thinning to approx. 25 km on the west. Pn velocities of 7.8 to 7.9 km/s characterize the upper mantle low velocity cushion, 7.4 km/s to 7.5 km/s, occurs at a depth of approx. 25 km in the eastern B-R and underlies the area of active extension. An upper-crustal low-velocity zone in the eastern B-R shows a marked P-wave velocity inversion of 7% at depths of 7 to 10 km also in the area of greatest extension. The seismic velocity models for this region of intraplate extension suggest major differences from that of a normal, thermally underformed continental lithosphere. Interpretations of seismic reflection data demonstrate the presence of extensive low-angle reflections in the upper-crust of the eastern B-R at depths from near-surface to 7 to 10 km. These reflections have been interpreted to represent low-angle normal fault detachments or reactivated thrusts. Seismic profiles across steeply-dipping normal faults in unconsolidated sediments show reflections from both planar to downward flatening (listric) faults that in most cases do not penetrate the low-angle detachments. These faults are interpreted as late Cenozoic and cataclastic mylonitic zones of shear displacement.

Smith, R. B.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Palinspastic reconstruction of southeastern California and southwestern Arizona for the middle Miocene

A paleogeographic reconstruction of southeastern California and southwestern Arizona at 10 Ma was made based on available geologic and geophysical data. Clockwise rotation of 39 deg was reconstructed in the eastern Transverse Ranges, consistent with paleomagnetic data from late Miocene volcanic rocks, and with slip estimates for left-lateral faults within the eastern Transverse Ranges and NW-trending right lateral faults in the Mojave Desert. This domain of rotated rocks is bounded by the Pinto Mountain fault on the north. In the absence of evidence for rotation of the San Bernardino Mountains or for significant right slip faults within the San Bernardino Mountains, the model requires that the late Miocene Pinto Mountain fault become a thrust fault gaining displacement to the west. The Squaw Peak thrust system of Meisling and Weldon may be a western continuation of this fault system. The Sheep Hole fault bounds the rotating domain on the east. East of this fault an array of NW-trending right slip faults and south-trending extensional transfer zones has produced a basin and range physiography while accumulating up to 14 km of right slip. This maximum is significantly less than the 37.5 km of right slip required in this region by a recent reconstruction of the central Mojave Desert. Geologic relations along the southern boundary of the rotating domain are poorly known, but this boundary is interpreted to involve a series of curved strike slip faults and non-coaxial extension, bounded on the southeast by the Mammoth Wash and related faults in the eastern Chocolate Mountains. Available constraints on timing suggest that Quaternary movement on the Pinto Mountain and nearby faults is unrelated to the rotation of the eastern Transverse Ranges, and was preceded by a hiatus during part of Pliocene time which followed the deformation producing the rotation. The reconstructed Clemens Well fault in the Orocopia Mountains, proposed as a major early Miocene strand of the San Andreas fault, projects eastward towards Arizona, where early Miocene rocks and structures are continuous across its trace. The model predicts a 14 deg clockwise rotation and 55 km extension along the present trace of the San Andreas fault during late Miocene and early Pliocene time. Palinspastic reconstructions of the San Andreas system based on this proposed reconstruction may be significantly modified from current models.

Richard, Stephen M.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Gravity field over northern Eurasia and variations in the strength of the upper mantle

The correlation of long-wavelength gravity anomalies in northern Eurasia with seismic velocity anomalies in the upper mantle reverses in sign between western and eastern Eurasia. The difference between western and eastern Eurasia can be explained by the presence of a low-viscosity zone in the uppermost mantle beneath eastern Eurasia that is absent to the west. The location of the lateral change in viscosity corresponds with the geologic boundary between the older shields and platforms of the Baltics, Russia, and Siberia and the younger, geologically active mountain belts of eastern Asia. This relation provides evidence that differences in the strength of the upper mantle control the locus of intracontinental deformation.

Kogan, Mikhail G.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Spatial and spectral characteristics of the near-infrared aurorae of Jupiter

Data are presented which show the power of a long-slit IR spectrograph to yield spectral and spatial coverage of the Jovian auroral zones in an efficient manner. Strong 3 micron H3(+) lines are observed on the eastern bright spot and moderately strong 3 micron H3(+) lines in the central meridian and western region of the northern aurora. Higher temperatures are found in the central meridian and western region of the northern aurora compared with a temperature of 1000 K +/- K on the eastern bright spot, suggesting an enhanced abundance of H3(+) on the bright spot compared to other auroral regions. The H2 quadrupole lines of Q1(1), Q1(3), S1(1), and several H3(+) lines between 2 and 2.5 microns are identified in the northern auroral region. The eastern bright spot as seen in the 2 micron H2 and H3(+) emission lines is at nearly the same position as the eastern bright spot due to the 3 micron H3(+) fundamental band lines.

Kim, Sang J.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Electrodynamic parameters in the nighttime sector during auroral substorms

The characteristics of the large-scale electrodynamic parameters, field-aligned currents (FACs), electric fields, and electron precipitation, which are associated with auroral substorm events in the nighttime sector, have been obtained through a unique analysis which places the ionospheric measurements of these parameters into the context of a generic substorm determined from global auroral images. A generic bulge-type auroral emission region has been deduced from auroral images taken by the Dynamics Explorer 1 (DE 1) satellite during a number of isolated substorms, and the form has been divided into six sectors, based on the peculiar emission characteristics in each sector: west of bulge, surge horn, surge, middle surge, eastern bulge, and east of bulge. By comparing the location of passes of the Dynamics Explorer 2 (DE 2) satellite to the simultaneously obtained auroral images, each pass is placed onto the generic aurora. The organization of DE 2 data in this way has systematically clarified peculiar characteristics in the electrodynamic parameters. An upward net current mainly appears in the surge, with little net current in the surge horn and the west of bulge. The downward net current is distributed over wide longitudinal regions from the eastern bulge to the east of bulge. Near the poleward boundary of the expanding auroral bulge, a pair of oppositely directed FAC sheets is observed, with the downward FAC on the poleward side. This downward FAC and most of the upward FAC in the surge and the middle surge are assoc iated with narrow, intense antisunwqard convection, corresponding to an equatorward directed spikelike electric field. This pair of currents decreases in amplitude and latitudinal width toward dusk in the surge and the west of bulge, and the region 1 and 2 FACs become embedded in the sunward convection region. The upward FAC region associated with the spikelike field on the poleward edge of the bulge coincides well with intense electron precipitation and aurora appearing in this western and poleward protion of the bulge. The convection reversal is sharp in the west of bulge and surge horn sectors, and near the high-latitude boundary of the upward region 1, with a near stagnation region often extending over a large interval of latitude. In the eastern bulge and east of bulge sectors, the region 1 and 2 FACs are located in the sunward convection region, while a spikelike electric field occasionally appears poleward of the aurora but usually not associated with a pair of FAC sheets. In the eastern bulge, magnetic field data show complicated FAC distributions which correspond to current segments and filamentary currents.

Fujii, R.↗

NASA NTRS1995

The ocean response to operational westerly wind bursts during the 1991 - 1992 El Nino

Numerical simulations of the remotely forced ocean response to westerly wind bursts prior to and during the 1991 - 1992 El Nino are examined; the models are forced by wind stress from the U.S. Navy's atmospheric global operational analysis/forecast system. The study focuses on (1) the relative response of the first and second internal modes to a single episode of westerly bursts; (2) the role of westerly bursts in producing the eastern Pacific sea level variations from October 1990 to February 1992; and (3) the relative importance of the remotely forced sea level responses generated by central and western Pacific wind anomalies. The simulation use the Naval Research Laboratory global multilayer formulation; the suite of experiments includes hydrodynamic simulations that use both one- and three- active-layer reduced gravity models as well as an experiment that also includes thermodynamic effects. The models are executed from January 1, 1990, to March 1, 1992, a period that includes 10 significant westerly wind bursts or burst clusters and the 1991 - 1992 El Nino event. The numerical experiments reveal an ability to accurately simulate the eastern Pacific sea level variations during this period. In response to a single burst, the three-layer hydrodynamic simulation reveals that the second internal mode Kelvin wave yields a sea level change at the eastern boundary that is approximately one third that of the first mode and a surface velocity signature that is equivalent to the first mode. During the onset of the El Nino event the inclusion of higher modes also produces a more realistic representation of the observed eastern boundary sea level signal. Furthermore, by comparing the model response to particular wind bursts with the observed sea level at Baltra, Galapagos, a value of 2.5 - 2.6 m/s is suggested as the most appropriate mean speed for the first internal mode Kelvin wave during the onset phase. A scenario for the onset of the 1991 - 1992 El Nino is given.

Kindle, John C.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Tropical Rainfall Distributions Determined Using TRMM Combined with other Satellite and Raingauge Information

Abstract A technique is described to use Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) combined radar/radiometer information to adjust geosynchronous infrared satellite data (the TRMM Adjusted GOES Precipitation Index, or TRMM AGPI). The AGPI is then merged with rain gauge information (mostly over land; the TRMM merged product) to provide fine- scale (1 deg latitude/longitude) pentad and monthly analyses, respectively. The TRMM merged estimates are 10% higher than those from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) when integrated over the tropical oceans (37 deg N-S) for 1998, with 20% differences noted in the most heavily raining areas. In the dry subtropics the TRMM values are smaller than the GPCP estimates. The TRMM merged-product tropical-mean estimates for 1998 are 3.3 mm/ day over ocean and 3.1 mm/ day over land and ocean combined. Regional differences are noted between the western and eastern Pacific Ocean maxima when TRMM and GPCP are compared. In the eastern Pacific rain maximum the TRMM and GPCP mean values are nearly equal, very different from the other tropical rainy areas where TRMM merged-product estimates are higher. This regional difference may indicate that TRMM is better at taking in to account the vertical structure of the rain systems and the difference in structure between the western and eastern (shallower) Pacific convection. Comparisons of these TRMM merged analysis estimates with surface data sets shows varied results; the bias is near zero when compared to western Pacific Ocean atoll raingauge data, but significantly positive compared to Kwajalein radar estimates (adjusted by rain gauges). Over land the TRMM estimates also show a significant positive bias. The inclusion of gauge information in the final merged product significantly reduces the bias over land, as expected. The monthly precipitation patterns produced by the TRMM merged data process clearly show the evolution of the ENSO tropical precipitation pattern from early 1998 (El Nino) through early 1999 (La Nina) and beyond. The El Nino minus La Nina difference map shows the eastern Pacific maximum, the maritime continent minima and other tropical and mid-latitude features. The differences in the Pacific are very similar to those detected by the GPCP analyses. However, summing the El Nino minus La Nina differences over the global tropical oceans yields divergent answers from TRMM, GPCP and other estimates. This emphasizes the need for additional validation and analysis before it is feasible to understand the relations between global precipitation anomalies and Pacific Ocean ENSO temperature changes.

Adler, Robert F.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Effects of 1997-1998 El Nino on Tropospheric Ozone and Water Vapor

This paper analyzes the impact of the 1997-1998 El Nino on tropospheric column ozone and tropospheric water vapor derived respectively from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) on Earth Probe and the Microwave Limb Scanning instrument on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite. The 1997-1998 El Nino, characterized by an anomalous increase in sea-surface temperature (SST) across the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean, is one of the strongest El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events of the century, comparable in magnitude to the 1982-1983 episode. The major impact of the SST change has been the shift in the convection pattern from the western to the eastern Pacific affecting the response of rain-producing cumulonimbus. As a result, there has been a significant increase in rainfall over the eastern Pacific and a decrease over the western Pacific and Indonesia. The dryness in the Indonesian region has contributed to large-scale burning by uncontrolled wildfires in the tropical rainforests of Sumatra and Borneo. Our study shows that tropospheric column ozone decreased by 4-8 Dobson units (DU) in the eastern Pacific and increased by about 10-20 DU in the western Pacific largely as a result of the eastward shift of the tropical convective activity as inferred from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data. The effect of this shift is also evident in the upper tropospheric water vapor mixing ratio which varies inversely as ozone (O3). These conclusions are qualitatively consistent with the changes in atmospheric circulation derived from zonal and vertical wind data obtained from the Goddard Earth Observing System data assimilation analyses. The changes in tropospheric column O3 during the course of the 1997-1998 El Nino appear to be caused by a combination of large-scale circulation processes associated with the shift in the tropical convection pattern and surface/boundary layer processes associated with forest fires in the Indonesian region.

Chandra, S.↗