MCNP6 Study of Spatial Fidelity Required for ROC Curve Convergence
The detection of special nuclear material at ports and borders is one of the primary missions of the Department of Homeland Security's (DHS) Domestic Nuclear Detection Office (DNDO). In support of this mission a large-scale modeling and simulation effort has been undertaken with the goal of providing a comprehensive tool-kit that addresses the complexity of problems involved with developing and maintaining technologies deployed to global nuclear detection architecture (GNDA) nodes. An important objective of DNDO's mission is to characterize detector system performance before deployment. In the effort to support this mission, the latest version of MCNP has been used to perform detectability studies of highly enriched uranium (HEU) to populate a database that will be used for the tool-kit. The characterization method used in the implementation of the database is the receiver operating characteristic (ROC). A ROC curve shows the limits of detectability of a given system as well as an overall metric of the efficacy of a detection system. This is accomplished by comparing total detector count distributions to the count distribution produced by background alone. For an in-depth explanation of the theory behind the MCNP production of ROC curves please refer to the paper, 'How To Use The Receiver Operating Characteristic Tally Option in MCNP6'. Building a useful database requires an expansive parameter space. The current tool-kit use nine parameters, which if varied with just 5 options each, results in nearly two million simulations to run. Depending on the set of parameters these simulations can take a few hours or a few weeks to complete. This computational cost necessitates the use of scaling algorithms to interpolate between the data contained in the database. The tool-kit employs a discrete event method to simulate the movement and detector response of special nuclear material (SNM) through a GNDA node. Given the nature of a discrete event simulation, constant motion of SNM must be split up in to discrete spatial detection points. The fidelity required of the spatial splitting to achieve a properly converged answer is investigated here for a neutron detection system. The detector used was a SNAP-3 neutron detector in front of a sphere of SNM in the presence of background radiation. A parameter study has been performed to determine the spatial fidelity required for ROC curve convergence for moving objects in a discrete event simulator. It appears that 5 points is the minimum number of detection points with 7 points needed for one of the parameter sets. The convergence worsens with increases to detection length but appears to improve with increasing detector distance. These results will help future work involving quantifying the accuracy based on given tolerances and parameters. (authors)