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DOE OSTI2024

Forest carbon sequestration on the west coast, USA: Role of species, productivity, and stockability

Forest ecosystems store large amounts of carbon and can be important sources, or sinks, of the atmospheric carbon dioxide that is contributing to global warming. Understanding the carbon storage potential of different forests and their response to management and disturbance events are fundamental to developing policies and scenarios to partially offset greenhouse gas emissions. Projections of live tree carbon accumulation are handled differently in different models, with inconsistent results. We developed growth-and-yield style models to predict stand-level live tree carbon density as a function of stand age in all vegetation types of the coastal Pacific region, US (California, Oregon, and Washington), from 7,523 national forest inventory plots. We incorporated site productivity and stockability within the Chapman-Richards equation and tested whether intensively managed private forests behaved differently from less managed public forests. We found that the best models incorporated stockability in the equation term controlling stand carrying capacity, and site productivity in the equation terms controlling the growth rate and shape of the curve. RMSEs ranged from 10 to 137 Mg C/ha for different vegetation types. There was not a significant effect of ownership over the standard industrial rotation length (~50 yrs) for the productive Douglas-fir/western hemlock zone, indicating that differences in stockability and productivity captured much of the variation attributed to management intensity. Our models suggest that doubling the rotation length on these intensively managed lands from 35 to 70 years would result in 2.35 times more live tree carbon stored on the landscape. These findings are at odds with some studies that have projected higher carbon densities with stand age for the same vegetation types, and have not found an increase in yields (on an annual basis) with longer rotations. We suspect that differences are primarily due to the application of yield curves developed from fully-stocked, undisturbed, single-species, “normal” stands without accounting for the substantial proportion of forests that don’t meet those assumptions. The carbon accumulation curves developed here can be applied directly in growth-and-yield style projection models, and used to validate the predictions of ecophysiological, cohort, or single-tree style models being used to project carbon futures for forests in the region. Our approach may prove useful for developing robust models in other forest types.

Chisholm, Paul J. (ORCID:0000000238784707)↗

DOE OSTI2020

EcoSpec: Highly Equipped Tower-Based Hyperspectral and Thermal Infrared Automatic Remote Sensing System for Investigating Plant Responses to Environmental Changes

Despite an advanced ability to forecast ecosystem functions and climate at regional and global scales, little is known about relationships between local variations in water and carbon fluxes and large-scale phenomena. To enable data collection of local-scale ecosystem functions to support such investigations, we developed the EcoSpec system, a highly equipped remote sensing system that houses a hyperspectral radiometer (350–2500 nm) and five optical and infrared sensors in a compact tower. Its custom software controls the sequence and timing of movement of the sensors and system components and collects measurements at 12 locations around the tower. The data collected using the system was processed to remove sun-angle effects, and spectral vegetation indices computed from the data (i.e., the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI), and Moisture Stress Index (MSI)) were compared with the fraction of photochemically active radiation (fPAR) and canopy temperature. The results showed that the NDVI, NDWI, and PRI were strongly correlated with fPAR; the MSI was correlated with canopy temperature at the diurnal scale. These correlations suggest that this type of near-surface remote sensing system would complement existing observatories to validate satellite remote sensing observations and link local and large-scale phenomena to improve our ability to forecast ecosystem functions and climate. The system is also relevant for precision agriculture to study crop growth, detect disease and pests, and compare traits of cultivars.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Fine-scale landscape characteristics, vegetation composition, and snowmelt timing control phenological heterogeneity across low-Arctic tundra landscapes in Western Alaska

The Arctic is warming at over twice the rate of the rest of the Earth, resulting in significant changes in vegetation seasonality that regulates annual carbon, water, and energy fluxes. However, a crucial knowledge gap exists regarding the intricate interplay among climate, permafrost, and vegetation that generates high phenology variability across extensive tundra landscapes. This oversight has led to significant discrepancies in phenological patterns observed across warming experiments, long-term ecological observations, and satellite and modeling studies, undermining our ability to understand and forecast plant responses to climate change in the Arctic. To address this problem, we assessed plant phenology across three low-Arctic tundra landscapes on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, using a combination of in-situ phenocam observations and high-resolution PlanetScope CubeSat data. We examined the patterns and drivers of phenological diversity across the landscape by (1) quantifying phenological diversity among dominant plant function types (PFTs) and (2) modeling the interrelations between plant phenology and fine-scale landscape features, such as topography, snowmelt, and vegetation. Our findings reveal that both spring and fall phenology varied significantly across Arctic PFTs, accounting for about 25%–44% and 34%–59% of the landscape-scale variation in the start of spring [SOS] and start of fall [SOF], respectively. Deciduous tall shrubs (e.g. alder and willow) had a later SOS (~7 d behind the mean of other PFTs), but completed leaf expansion (within 2 weeks) considerably faster compared to other PFTs. We modeled the landscape-scale variation in SOS and SOF using Random Forest, which showed that plant phenology can be accurately captured by a suite of variables related to vegetation composition, topographic characteristics, and snowmelt timing (variance explained: 53%–68% for SOS and 59%–82% for SOF). Notably, snowmelt timing was a crucial determinant of SOS, a factor often neglected in most spring phenology models. Our study highlights the impact of fine-scale vegetation composition, snow seasonality, and landscape features on tundra phenological heterogeneity. Improved understanding of such considerable intra-site phenological variability and associated proximate controls across extensive Arctic landscapes offers critical insights for representation of tundra phenology in process models and associated impact assessments with climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

The short-term comprehensive impact of the phase-out of global coal combustion on air pollution and climate change

With the continuous intensification of global warming, the reduction and ultimate phase-out of coal combustion is an inevitable trend in the future global energy transformation. This study comprehensively analyzed the impact of phasing out coal combustion on global emissions and concentrations of air pollutants, radiative fluxes, meteorology and climate using Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2). The results indicate that after the global phase-out of coal combustion, there is a marked decrease in the concentrations of sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), nitrogen oxides (NO x ) and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), with some regions experiencing a reduction of exceeding 50%. There is no significant change in global ozone (O 3 ) concentration. There are decreasing AOD and positive radiative fluxes globally in the short term, though the cloud contributes minor negative radiative fluxes. The global air temperature may increase by approximately (0.02 ± 0.15) °C on average with regional and seasonal variations, and the precipitation may potentially increase by approximately (2.7 ± 40.6) mm yr −1 globally and over 20% in equatorial regions in the short term. But combined with the decreasing trend of cloud water content in the Northern Hemisphere, it indicates a potential increase in the extremity of precipitation events. In conclusion, this study provides references for global control of air pollution, mitigation strategies of climate change, and transformation of energy structures under the objective of “carbon neutrality”, such as focusing on the negative climate impacts of exacerbating regional warming and increasing extreme precipitation resulting from the rapid reduction of aerosols in the short term.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2026

Financial-technical co-design for capital-intensive, resource-responsive energy systems

Because of their capital-intensive operation, wind energy systems that are competitive in terms of the cost of the energy that they produce lead to risk-reward trade-offs that make their business cases less favorable than those of conventional energy generation technologies. However, wind energy systems tend to be designed to maximize energy production or minimize cost of energy rather than to maximize their business cases. In this work, we attempt to exploit designs specifically tailored to business cases. We develop a novel framework for analyzing energy systems that ties their design variables to monthly operating incomes using simple models and historical hourly market and resource data. Using this approach, we demonstrate that for a wind site with abundant wind resource in the California Independent System Operator market, we can control the trade-off between mean and 5th percentile monthly returns by choosing the specific power of the turbine at a fixed modeled initial capital cost. Our framework gives a measure of the risk-reward spectrum of energy generation assets that could be built at a given site with respect to the sub-annual resource/market variation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

On the uncertainties in helium generation predictions for fission and fusion alloys

With ongoing advances in fusion and advanced fission reactors, quantifying irradiation effects in materials is critical. Transmutation-induced helium in cladding and structural materials can drive swelling and embrittlement, thereby reducing these components’ lifespans. Yet most studies ignore the considerable uncertainties in predicting helium generation rates. In this work, we created a code wrapper, F-SCATTER, that automatically performs simulations in FISPACT-II. We used this tool to investigate potential variance in helium generation rate, or He/dpa, calculations based on deviations in alloy composition, irradiating neutron flux spectrum, computational methodology, and nuclear data sources. We used 12 wt% Cr HT9 steel as the reference case and observed a 6.5%–98.3% He/dpa spread based on compositional variation within a single chemical specification, a 1.8%–11.5% He/dpa variation upon the incorporation of a 15% artificial uncertainty in flux at each energy, and a He/dpa difference as high as 231% when using ENDF/B-VIII.0 versus TENDL-2021 data libraries. Similar results were found for other prominent iron-based alloys, including Grade 91, castable nano-structured alloy, and 316H—where additional variations exist based on reactor type (e.g. thermal, fast, or fusion) and alloying elements such as carbon, nitrogen, and nickel. Based on the simulated results, we conclude that a significant part of the heat-to-heat variability in swelling responses of Fe-based alloys can be driven by impurity content in alloy compositions, and, therefore, chemical control should be a key element in supply chain design for advanced nuclear energy systems. Furthermore, we provide critical recommendations on best practices for evaluating and reporting helium production and lattice damage rates when computing predictions with multiphysics programs such as FISPACT-II.

FISPACT-II↗

DOE OSTI2024

Acarbose impairs gut Bacteroides growth by targeting intracellular glucosidases

ABSTRACT Acarbose is a type 2 diabetes medicine that prevents dietary starch breakdown into glucose by inhibiting host amylase and glucosidase enzymes. Numerous gut species in theBacteroidesgenus enzymatically break down starch and change in relative abundance within the gut microbiome in acarbose-treated individuals. To mechanistically explain this observation, we used two model starch-degradingBacteroides,Bacteroides ovatus(Bo), andBacteroides thetaiotaomicron(Bt). Bt growth on starch polysaccharides is severely impaired by acarbose, whereas Bo growth is much less affected by the drug. TheBacteroidesuse a starch utilization system (Sus) to grow on starch. We hypothesized that Bo and Bt Sus enzymes are differentially inhibited by acarbose. Instead, we discovered that although acarbose primarily targets the Sus periplasmic GH97 enzymes in both organisms, the drug affects starch processing at multiple other points. Acarbose competes for transport through the TonB-dependent SusC proteins and binds to the Sus transcriptional regulators. Furthermore, Bo expresses a non-Sus GH97 (BoGH97D) when grown in starch with acarbose. The Bt homolog, BtGH97H, is not expressed in the same conditions, nor can overexpression of BoGH97D complement the Bt growth inhibition in the presence of acarbose. This work informs us about unexpected complexities of Sus function and regulation inBacteroides, including variation between related species. Furthermore, this indicates that the gut microbiome may be a source of variable response to acarbose treatment for diabetes. IMPORTANCE Acarbose is a type 2 diabetes medication that works primarily by stopping starch breakdown into glucose in the small intestine. This is accomplished by the inhibition of host enzymes, leading to better blood sugar control via reduced ability to derive glucose from dietary starches. The drug and undigested starch travel to the large intestine where acarbose interferes with the ability of some bacteria to grow on starch. However, little is known about how gut bacteria interact with acarbose, including microbes that can use starch as a carbon source. Here, we show that two gut species,Bacteroides ovatus(Bo) andBacteroides thetaiotaomicron(Bt), respond differently to acarbose: Bt growth is inhibited by acarbose, while Bo growth is less affected. We reveal a complex set of mechanisms involving differences in starch import and sensing behind the different Bo and Bt responses. This indicates the gut microbiome may be a source of variable response to acarbose treatment for diabetes via complex mechanisms in common gut microbes.

Microbiology↗

DOE OSTI2020

Long-term Photometry and Orbital Period Change of the W UMa–type Binary v0599 Aur: Evidence of about 11 yr Magnetic-activity Cycle

Combining all available photometric data from various surveys and literature with our observations, we present 10 sets of light curves for the eclipsing binary V0599 Aur covering a timescale of 20 yr. During the last two decades, the O’Connell effect continuously varied and went through at least two flips between positive and negative effects. The photometric solutions from our two sets of multicolored light curves show that V0599 Aur is a W-type shallow contact binary with an active spot on the secondary. Its absolute parameters are determined by combining the Gaia distance with the photometric solutions. The period investigation reveals a secular decrease and a cyclic variation in its orbital period. The former mainly originates from the mass transfer from the more massive secondary to the less massive primary. The latter can be preferentially explained as a result of cyclic magnetic activity of the secondary, with three observational supports: (1) the existence and evolution of an active spot suggested by the long-term photometry, (2) periodic variation in both the O’Connell effect and relative luminosity, and (3) weak correlations between O’Connell effect/relative luminosity changes and cyclic period variation. Together with the cyclic period variation and its theoretical reasonability by Applegate’s mechanism, we suggest that the secondary of V0599 Aur is a solar-type magnetic-activity star with an approximately 11 yr active cycle. Furthermore, by combining the secular period decrease with the Roche-lobe model, we infer that V0599 Aur is evolving from the marginal contact state controlled by thermal relaxation oscillation theory to the overcontact state.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Coexistence between similar invaders: The case of two cosmopolitan exotic insects

Biological invasions are usually examined in the context of their impacts on native species. However, few studies have examined the dynamics between invaders when multiple exotic species successfully coexist in a novel environment. Yet, long-term coexistence of now established exotic species has been observed in North American lady beetle communities. Exotic lady beetles Harmonia axyridis and Coccinella septempunctata were introduced for biological control in agricultural systems and have since become dominant species within these communities. In this study, we investigated coexistence via spatial and temporal niche partitioning among H. axyridis and C. septempunctata using a 31-year data set from southwestern Michigan, USA. We found evidence of long-term coexistence through a combination of small-scale environmental, habitat, and seasonal mechanisms. Across years, H. axyridis and C. septempunctata experienced patterns of cyclical dominance likely related to yearly variation in temperature and precipitation. Within years, populations of C. septempunctata peaked early in the growing season at 550 degree days, while H. axyridis populations grew in the season until 1250 degree days and continued to have high activity after this point. C. septempunctata was generally most abundant in herbaceous crops, whereas H. axyridis did not display strong habitat preferences. These findings suggest that within this region H. axyridis has broader habitat and abiotic environmental preferences, whereas C. septempunctata thrives under more specific ecological conditions. These ecological differences have contributed to the continued coexistence of these two invaders. Understanding the mechanisms that allow for the coexistence of dominant exotic species contributes to native biodiversity conservation management of invaded ecosystems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

The surprisingly inexpensive cost of state-driven emission control strategies

Traditionally, analysis of the costs of cutting greenhouse gas emissions has assumed that governments would implement idealized, optimal policies such as uniform economy-wide carbon taxes. Yet actual policies in the real world, especially in large federal governments, are often highly heterogeneous and vary in political support and administrative capabilities within a country. While the benefits of heterogeneous action have been discussed widely for experimentation and leadership, little is known about its costs. Focusing on the United States, we represent plausible variation (by more than a factor of 3) in the stringency of state-led climate policy in a process-based integrated assessment model (GCAM-USA). For a wide array of national decarbonization targets, we find that the nationwide cost from heterogeneous subnational policies is only one-tenth higher than nationally uniform policies. Such results hinge on two critical technologies (advanced biofuels and electricity) for which inter-state trade ameliorates the economic efficiencies that might arise with heterogeneous action.

Peng, Wei↗

DOE OSTI2020

Jefferson Laboratory C100 Superconducting Radio-Frequency Cavity Fault Data, 2020

The dataset was created to train machine learning models for the task of identifying the (1) cavity and (2) fault type from C100-type cryomodules at the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (Jefferson Lab), thereby replacing the time-consuming efforts of a subject matter expert. Superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavity trips represent a significant source of accelerator downtime. Real-time – rather than post-mortem – identification of the offending cavity and classification of the fault type would give control room operators valuable feedback for corrective action planning. The anticipated benefit is increased beam-on-target time for users and provides performance metrics that can be used to improve future cavity designs. A series of 17 RF signals are recorded for each of the 8 cavities in a C100 cryomodule every time a cavity trips. These time-series signals are written to file using a specially designed data acquisition system. The dataset represents fault events recorded during Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) beam operations between January 18, 2019 and March 9, 2020. The following filtering steps were applied to collected data; (1) only 4 of the 17 signals per cavity are retained (GMES, GASK, CRFP, DETA2) (2) only events with data from each of the eight cavities in the cryomodule are kept, (3) only events that were sampled at 5 kHz were kept, (4) events from cryomodule 0L04 were neglected, (5) events occurring between February 4, 3PM and February 5, 12PM were neglected. As a result of preprocessing, the dataset is comprised of 2,375 unique events. The full dataset is comprised of three files: features.csv, cavity_labels.csv, fault_labels.csv. Each instance in faults.csv includes a timestamp (“date_time”), a label for the cryomodule which experienced the trip (“zone_label”), and 192 features (“feature_1”, “feature_2”... “feature_192”). The features correspond to 6 autoregressive features for each of 4 signals per cavity for each of the 8 cavities (6 × 4 signals/cavity × 8 cavities/cryomodule = 192). To deal with the large variation of signal amplitudes, time-series standardization via the z-score (standard score) function was applied prior to computing the features. For each instance, there is an associated label for the (1) cavity which faulted first (cavity_labels.csv) and (2) the type of fault that caused the trip (fault_labels.csv). The cavity identification can take values of [0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8] and the fault type can take values of [‘Microphonics’, ‘Quench_100ms’, ‘Controls_Fault’, ‘E_Quench’, ‘Quench_3ms’, ‘Single_Cav_Turn_Off’ , ‘Heat_Riser_Choke’, ‘Multi_Cav_Turn_Off’].

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Distributed strain sensing using Bi-metallic coated fiber optic sensors embedded in stainless steel

Silica fiber optic sensors are resistant to corrosive environments and high temperatures, making them attractive candidates for harsh conditions found in nuclear and aerospace industries. Moreover, fibers can be deployed remotely for continuous measuring of spatially distributed temperatures and strains. Here, this study investigated embedding a Ni/Cu bi-metallic coated fiber in a stainless-steel 316 (SS316) matrix using laser powder bed fusion towards functionalizing metal components for site-specific health monitoring. The embedded fiber was continuously interrogated during controlled heating to 1000°C. The measured fiber strains were similar to the expected differential thermal strains between the fiber and the SS316 matrix, until divergent behavior was observed at temperatures >500°C. No debonding at the matrix–coating–fiber interfaces was observed during microscopy, but significant interactions between the coatings and matrix resulted in diffusion-driven chemistry variations and Kirkendall void formation. Applying the strain-lag theory revealed plastic behavior in the Ni coating at temperatures >500°C, limiting the strain transfer to the fiber at higher temperatures. It was estimated that the elastic modulus in the Ni coating had decreased from ~200 GPa at room temperature to below 40 GPa, starting at 600°C. The low elastic modulus above 600°C is within the margin of what the tangent modulus would be in the case of bilinear isotropic hardening. Regardless of the divergent strain transfer at higher temperatures, the fiber was exposed to the equivalent of 1.9 % engineering strain at 1000°C, but measured only a 0.7 % engineering strain due to the poor strain transfer. Although compensating for the plastic behavior of Ni proved challenging, the bonding of a brittle silica fiber to a metal matrix surviving to 1000°C invites potential iterations on coating material for future application. For example, the embedded fiber is sufficient for acoustic energy transfer, realizing high temperature distributed acoustic sensing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Solutal-buoyancy-driven intertwining and rotation of patterned elastic sheets

Abstract The intertwining of strands into 3D spirals is ubiquitous in biology, enabling functions from information storage to maintenance of cell structure and directed locomotion. In synthetic systems, entwined fibers can provide superior mechanical properties and act as artificial muscle or structural reinforcements. Unlike structures in nature, the entwinement of synthetic materials typically requires application of an external stimulus, such as mechanical actuation, light, or a magnetic field. Herein, we use computational modeling to design microscale sheets that mimic biology by transducing chemical energy into mechanical action, and thereby self-organize and interlink into 3D spirals, which spontaneously rotate. These flexible sheets are immersed in a fluid-filled microchamber that encompasses an immobilized patch of catalysts on the bottom wall. The sheets themselves can be passive or active (coated with catalyst). Catalytic reactions in the solution generate products that occupy different volumes than the reactants. The resulting density variations exert a force on the fluid (solutal buoyancy force) that causes motion, which in turn drives the interlinking and collective swirling of the sheets. The individual sheets do not rotate; rotation only occurs when the sheets are interlinked. This level of autonomous, coordinated 3D structural organization, intertwining, and rotation is unexpected in synthetic materials systems operating without external controls. Using physical arguments, we identify dimensionless ratios that are useful in scaling these ideas to other systems. These findings are valuable for creating materials that act as “machines”, and directing soft matter to undergo self-sustained, multistep assembly that is governed by intrinsic chemical reactions.

Manna, Raj Kumar (ORCID:0000000322729487)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Using Machine Learning Tools to Predict Compressor Stall

Clean energy has become an increasingly important consideration in today’s power systems. As the push for clean energy continues, many coal-fired power plants are being decommissioned in favor of renewable power sources such as wind and solar. However, the intermittent nature of renewables means that dynamic load following traditional power systems is crucial to grid stability. With high flexibility and fast response at a wide range of operating conditions, gas turbine systems are poised to become the main load following component in the power grid. Yet, rapid changes in load can lead to fluid flow instabilities in gas turbine power systems. These instabilities often lead to compressor surge and stall, which are some of the most critical problems facing the safe and efficient operation of compressors in turbomachinery today. Although the topic of compressor surge and stall has been extensively researched, no methods for early prediction have been proven effective. This study explores the utilization of machine learning tools to predict compressor stall. The long short-term memory (LSTM) model, a form of recurrent neural network (RNN), was trained using real compressor stall datasets from a 100 kW recuperated gas turbine power system designed for hybrid configuration. Two variations of the LSTM model, classification and regression, were tested to determine optimal performance. The regression scheme was determined to be the most accurate approach, and a tool for predicting compressor stall was developed using this configuration. Overall, results show that the tool is capable of predicting stalls 5–20 ms before they occur. With a high-speed controller capable of 5 ms time-steps, mitigating action could be taken to prevent compressor stall before it occurs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Atmosphere-Biosphere Interaction Study (Field Campaign Report)

The objective of this campaign was to collect hyperspectral reflectance measurements and complementary optical and infrared data of land surface (i.e., vegetation and soil) throughout the growing season (i.e., from March to September) at high temporal frequency (e.g., < 30 minutes). To collect the measurements, the EcoSpec system, a tower-based sensor system housing seven optical and infrared sensors that was developed at Argonne National Laboratory, was deployed to the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory (within the crop, south of the eddy correlation flux measurement system [ECOR] tower). The EcoSpec system consists of a spectroradiometer having 2,151 channels (350–2,500 nm), red-greenblue (RGB) camera, diffuse radiometer, thermal infrared (TIR) sensors, albedometers, Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI) sensors, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) sensors, and wetness sensor. The system is designed to collect an array of land surface measurements, including hyperspectral reflectance of plants and soils, RGB photos capturing contextual information of land surface, radiant temperature of sky and land surface, incoming and reflected shortwave radiation, and incoming radiation components (direct and diffuse) as frequent as every minute from up to 12 discrete positions around the tower. This would allow us to capture inherent heterogeneity of the terrestrial ecosystem and to obtain representative spectral signatures of the plant and soil surfaces via averaging those measurements. The SGP site provides advanced atmospheric and other physical measurements that are essential for our investigation of ecosystem functions using hyperspectral reflectance measurements of land surfaces. Located in the mid-latitudes, the SGP site exhibits dynamic seasonality and a wide range of meteorological variability and flux properties that make it ideal for studying interactions between near-surface atmosphere and biosphere across a range of environmental conditions. The atmosphere, plants, and soil control terrestrial carbon and water cycles. To make more accurate climate forecasts, researchers need to understand ecosystem dynamics at the biosphere–atmosphere interface. Even though our ability to forecast ecosystem dynamics and climate at both the regional and global scales has advanced significantly, we still do not know how local phenomena affecting water and carbon fluxes—such as diurnal variations—interrelate with large-scale atmospheric/climate phenomena, and vice versa. The lack of a more thorough understanding of ecosystem dynamics and climate interactions is a key knowledge gap for the improvement of earth system models (ESMs).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Prognostic simulations of mixed-phase clouds with model AC-1D v1.0: the impact of aerosol types and freezing parameterizations on ice crystal budgets

Mixed-phase clouds at high latitudes contribute to the uncertainty in predicting cloud feedbacks and climate sensitivity, mainly due to the complexity of microphysical processes that influence the partitioning between the supercooled liquid and ice phases, and hence, cloud radiative effects on regional scales. Particularly in Arctic mixed-phase clouds, the activation of ice-nucleating particles (INPs) from various aerosol populations remains a leading source of uncertainty. We developed an aerosol-cloud one-dimensional (AC-1D) model, which provides a novel framework to prognostically treat INP and ice crystal budgets while explicitly accounting for polydisperse and multicomponent aerosol that activate INPs following different freezing parameterizations. The AC-1D model is informed by large-eddy simulations to probe the impact of INP representation on predicted ice crystal number concentrations (N i ) and ice crystal budgets in mixed-phase Arctic stratus. We apply three immersion freezing (IMF) parameterizations, two time-independent (singular) and one time-dependent (classical nucleation theory), to predict the evolution of the INP reservoir and resulting ice crystal budget from polydisperse mineral dust, organic (humic-like substances), and sea spray aerosol particle size distributions. Our analysis focuses on how variations in aerosol number concentration and cloud system parameters such as cloud cooling rate, cloud-top entrainment rate, and ice crystal fall speed influence the INP reservoir and ice crystal budgets. Furthermore, this study investigates the competitive ice nucleation dynamics in mixed aerosol environments and provides a process-level quantification of the INP budget terms, which directly controls ice crystal budgets. For all studied case scenarios, the aerosol types and associated particle size distributions significantly impact INP and N i , and the choice between a time-dependent and a singular freezing description yields orders-of-magnitude differences in the predicted INP and N i over the 10 h simulation time, reflecting typical cloud lifetimes. Our results show that the influence of cloud cooling, INP entrainment, and sedimentation varies significantly depending on the chosen freezing parameterization. These findings underscore the critical need for robust IMF parameterizations and precise cloud system observations to enhance the accuracy of models in predicting mixed-phase cloud structure and evolution.

Arctic clouds↗

DOE OSTI2020

Activity Time-Use Patterns and Experienced Satisfaction: Travel Behavioral Dynamics from the 2010–2013 American Time-Use Survey Data

Central to the theory of activity-based approaches is the role of time-use and its impacts on various decision processes related to individual activity-travel patterns, thereby determining ones’ daily well-being. This research aims at quantifying and investigating the underlying correlation of time-use and happiness using the repeated cross-section data from the 2010-2013 American Time Use Survey Well-Being module. The survey specifically records reported levels of activity satisfaction as measured through – happiness, meaningfulness, tiredness, sadness and stress experienced from activity participation. Using these scores, we first construct a composite degree of activity satisfaction that a person experiences using latent class cluster analysis. A series of regression models are then estimated to jointly analyze episodic duration and satisfaction separately for each of years from 2010-2013, by controlling for socioeconomics, household lifecycle stages (29-groups based on age, gender, marital status and presence of children), activity characteristics and global life and health assessment measures. Overall, model estimation results reveal a strong negative correlation between episodic duration and happiness from individual activity engagement patterns. This correlation pattern is temporally stable for the years 2010-2013, with minor variations. Results also suggest that household lifecycle stage has a major impact on activity time-use and satisfaction behavior. Further, single parent and younger couples (25 years to 45 years) with children are more likely to engage in longer and less happy episodes due to family commitments. The model findings also show a strong correlation between health conditions and activity happiness.

Ravulaparthy, Srinath↗

DOE OSTI2021

Assessment of Clonal Expansion Using CarcSeq Measurement of Lung Cancer Driver Mutations and Correlation With Mouse Strain- and Sex-Related Incidence of Spontaneous Lung Neoplasia

Quantification of variation in levels of spontaneously occurring cancer driver mutations (CDMs) was developed to assess clonal expansion and predict future risk of neoplasm development. Specifically, an error-corrected next-generation sequencing method, CarcSeq, and a mouse CarcSeq panel (analogous to human and rat panels) were developed and used to quantify low-frequency mutations in a panel of amplicons enriched in hotspot CDMs. Mutations in a subset of panel amplicons, Braf, Egfr, Kras, Stk11, and Tp53, were related to incidence of lung neoplasms at 2 years. This was achieved by correlating median absolute deviation (MAD) from the overall median mutant fraction (MF) measured in the lung DNA of 16-week-old male and female, B6C3F1 and CD-1 mice (10 mice/sex/strain) with percentages of spontaneous alveolar/bronchioloalveolar adenomas and carcinomas reported in bioassay control groups. A total of 1586 mouse lung mutants with MFs > x 10-4 were recovered. The ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous mutations was used to assess the proportion of recovered mutations conferring a positive selective advantage. The greatest ratio was observed in what is considered the most lung tumor-sensitive model examined, male B6C3F1 mice. Of the recurrent, nonsynonymous mouse mutations recovered, 55.5% have been reported in human tumors, with many located in or around the mouse equivalent of human cancer hotspot codons. MAD for the same subset of amplicons measured in normal human lung DNA samples showed a correlation of moderate strength and borderline significance with age (a cancer risk factor), as well as age-related cumulative lung cancer risk, suggesting MAD may inform species extrapolation.

Toxicology↗