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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris (MMOD) Testing, Ballistic Limit Definition and Risk Assessment of the Exploration Extravehicular Mobility Unit (xEMU)

A well-known hazard associated with exposure to the space environment is the risk of failure due to an impact from a micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) particle. As NASA prepares to return astronauts to the moon with the Artemis program, the next generation of spacesuit is in development to support future extravehicular activities (EVAs.) An MMOD impact to the spacesuit is of great concern as a large leak could prevent an astronaut from safely reaching an airlock in time resulting in a loss of life. The exploration extravehicular mobility unit (xEMU) must meet MMOD requirements for multiple environments including those in low earth orbit (LEO) as well as the meteoroid and secondary lunar regolith ejecta environments found on the lunar surface. The subject of this paper is an internal xEMU configuration design developed by NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) personnel. The xEMU shares similarities with the legacy Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) spacesuit that is currently used for ISS EVAs, however differences in the layup (e.g., materials, thicknesses, and layers) of the fabric environmental protection garment (EPG), portable life support system (xPLSS) and helmet required an extensive test program to determine ballistic performance. Over 100 hypervelocity impact (HVI) tests were performed by the NASA/JSC HVIT and White Sands Test Facility (WSTF) teams on the xEMU EPG, xPLSS and helmet to generate ballistic limit equations (BLEs) for MMOD impacts. Additionally, over 50 low speed tests (< 1km/s) were performed by the NASA/JSC HVIT and Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) teams on the xEMU EPG, xPLSS and helmet to generate BLEs for lunar ejecta impacts. Post testing, ballistic limit equations (BLEs) used to define the performance of the various regions on the xEMU spacesuit were developed from a generic set of BLEs. The HVI and low speed testing was performed to establish a physical basis for the equations with the coefficients and exponents of the generic BLEs adjusted to fit the test data. The xEMU BLEs were added to the NASA/JSC software application used for spacecraft MMOD risk assessments (BUMPER-3). A finite element model (FEM) of the xEMU spacesuit, which defines the size and shape of the spacesuit as well as the locations of the various shielding configurations, was created based on a solid model provided by the xEMU program office. Using the FEM file and added xEMU BLEs, BUMPER-3 assessments of the xEMU spacesuit for probability of no penetration (PNP) were performed. For the LEO assessment of a typical ISS EVA, the orbital debris and meteoroids environments were defined using the latest engineering models, ORDEM 3.2 and MEM-3 respectively. The lunar surface assessment again used the MEM-3 engineering model to define the meteoroid environment along with the current released lunar surface ejecta model, NASA SP-8013 (developed during the Apollo Program). The Space Team in the Natural Environments Branch at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) will soon release the new Lunar Meteoroid Ejecta Engineering Model (LMEEM), at which time the xEMU lunar surface EVA will be reassessed. Assessment of the MMOD risk for an 8-hour, 2-person EVA in both LEO and on the lunar surface showed that the xEMU spacesuit meets the program technical requirement of 1 in 2500 failure odds. Similar to the legacy EMU spacesuit, the majority of the MMOD risk (96% of the LEO EVA risk and 99% of the lunar surface EVA risk) is concentrated in regions of xEMU that are comprised primarily of softgoods (arms, legs, and gloves) rather than the hardgoods (xPLSS, hard upper torso and helmet).

Micrometeoroid↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA and External Quantum Sensing Capability Assessment for NASA Space-Based Science Measurements

The Subject Matter Experts in the Sensors & Instrumentation Quantum Sensing Community of Practice (CoP) requested an independent technical assessment of the agency's capabilities in QS to understand NASA's internal needs and competencies related to QS and compare agency capabilities with those available externally including industry, academia, and other government agencies. The outcomes of the assessment will help the agency in establishing appropriate strategies and investments to develop and maintain the state-of-the-art sensing competence and capabilities required to meet the agency’s future needs. NASA Engineering and Safety Center Review Board approved the assessment request and assigned NASA Technical Fellow to lead and conduct the assessment by engaging NASA Centers, NASA HQ and an independent, non-commercial, and highly credible Quantum Sensing Experts from Academia, Department of Defense, other Government Agencies. The assessment started in October 2021 and final report was completed in October 2023.

External Quantum Sensing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris (MMOD) Testing, Ballistic Limit Equation Definition and Risk Assessment of the Exploration Extravehicular Mobility Unit (xEMU)

A well-known hazard associated with exposure to the space environment is the risk of failure due to an impact from a micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) particle. As NASA prepares to return astronauts to the moon with the Artemis program, the next generation of spacesuit is in development to support future extravehicular activities (EVAs.) An MMOD impact to the spacesuit is of great concern as a large leak could prevent an astronaut from safely reaching an airlock in time resulting in a loss of life. The exploration extravehicular mobility unit (xEMU) must meet MMOD requirements for multiple environments including those in low earth orbit (LEO) as well as the meteoroid and secondary lunar regolith ejecta environments found on the lunar surface. The subject of this paper is an internal xEMU configuration design developed by NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) personnel. This paper will expand on the hypervelocity impact (HVI) testing and ballistic limit equation (BLE) definition work that was partially presented at the 2nd International Orbital De-bris (IOC-II) Conference held in Sugar Land, TX in December 2023. The xEMU shares similarities with the legacy Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) spacesuit that is currently used for ISS EVAs, however differences in the layup (e.g., materials, thicknesses, and layers) of the fabric environmental protection garment (EPG), portable life support system (xPLSS) and helmet required an extensive test program to determine ballistic performance. Over 100 hypervelocity impact (HVI) tests were performed by the NASA/JSC HVIT and White Sands Test Facility (WSTF) teams on the xEMU EPG, xPLSS and helmet to generate ballistic limit equations (BLEs) for MMOD impacts. Additionally, over 50 low speed tests (< 1km/s) were performed by the NASA/JSC HVIT and Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) teams on the xEMU EPG, xPLSS and helmet to generate BLEs for lunar ejecta impacts. Post testing, ballistic limit equations used to define the performance of the various regions on the xEMU spacesuit were developed from a generic set of BLEs. The HVI and low speed testing was performed to establish a physical basis for the equations with the co-efficients and exponents of the generic BLEs adjusted to fit the test data. The xEMU BLEs were added to the NASA/JSC software application used for space-craft MMOD risk assessments (BUMPER-3). A finite element model (FEM) of the xEMU spacesuit, which defines the size and shape of the spacesuit as well as the locations of the various shielding configurations, was created based on a solid model provided by the xEMU program office. Using the FEM file and added xEMU BLEs, BUMPER-3 assessments of the xEMU spacesuit for probability of no penetration (PNP) were performed. For the LEO assessment of a typical ISS EVA, the orbital debris and meteoroids environments were defined using the latest engineering models, ORDEM 3.2 and MEM-3 respectively. The lunar sur-face assessment again used the MEM-3 engineering model to define the meteoroid environ-ment along with the current released lunar surface ejecta model, NASA SP-8013 (developed during the Apollo Program). The Space Team in the Natural Environments Branch at Mar-shall Space Flight Center (MSFC) will soon release the new Lunar Meteoroid Ejecta Engineering Model (LMEEM), at which time the xEMU lunar surface EVA will be reassessed. Assessment of the MMOD risk for an 8-hour, 2-person EVA in both LEO and on the lunar surface showed that the xEMU spacesuit meets the program technical requirement of 1 in 2500 failure odds. Similar to the legacy EMU spacesuit, the majority of the MMOD risk (96% of the LEO EVA risk and 99% of the lunar surface EVA risk) is concentrated in regions of xEMU that are comprised primarily of softgoods (arms, legs, and gloves) rather than the hardgoods (xPLSS, hard upper torso and helmet).

Micrometeoroid↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation of a Probabilistic Continuity Assessment Method for Earth Observation Portfolios

With the increased reliance on spaceborne Earth observation data among the Earth science community and other end users, it is important that efforts are made to promote data continuity for a range of parameters of interest. Continuity gaps may occur between missions measuring like parameters due to mission development delays or early termination and introduce the potential of increased uncertainty for retrieved parameters. To inform portfolio-level decisions for Earth observing missions, Ivanco et al. developed a method that enables the assessment of the probability of continuity gaps for multi-mission architectures and provides a framework to assess this probability in the context of multiple scenarios that represent possible future states of the architecture [Ivanco et al., “A Scenario-Based Approach to Assess Continuity Gaps in Earth Observations,” IEEE Aerospace Conf., 2024]. While this method was previously applied to assess continuity gaps for a specific multi-mission architecture, it had not yet been validated with historical data. This paper outlines the process of validating the probabilistic gap assessment method by utilizing data obtained from past NASA Earth Science mission formulation documents and provides a discussion of the results and takeaways from the validation. Future areas of improvement pertaining to both the modeling and simulation methodologies and underlying assumptions are identified and discussed.

Katharine Burn↗

NASA NTRS2015

An Assessment of the Efficacy of Launch Collision Avoidance Analysis in Providing Risk Reduction for NASA

The objective of this document is to assess the value of collision on launch assessment (COLA, often referred to as “launch COLA”) practices and provide recommendations regarding its implementation for NASA robotic missions. The scope of this effort is limited to launch COLA screens against catalog objects that are either spacecraft or debris. No modifications to manned safety launch COLA practices are considered in this effort. An assessment of the value of launch COLA can be broken down into two fundamental questions: 1) Does collision during launch represent a significant risk to either the payload being launched or the space environment? 2) Can launch collision mitigation be performed in a manner that provides meaningful risk reduction at an acceptable level of operational impact? While it has been possible to piece together partial answers to these questions for some time, the first attempt to comprehensively address them is documented in reference (a), Launch COLA Operations: an Examination of Data Products, Procedures, and Thresholds, Revision A. This report is the product of an extensive study that addressed fundamental technical questions surrounding launch collision avoidance analysis and practice. The results provided in reference (a) will be cited throughout this document as these two questions are addressed. The premise of this assessment is that in order to conclude that launch COLA is a value-added activity, the answer to both of these questions must be affirmative. A “no” answer to either of these questions points toward the conclusion that launch COLA provides little or no risk mitigation benefit. The remainder of this assessment will focus on addressing these two questions.

launch COLA↗

DOE OSTI2011

Diagnostics and Prognostics Tools for Assessing Remaining Useful Life of Nuclear Power Plant Materials

In recent years, there has been renewed interest in expanding the use of nuclear power to provide sustainable, carbon-free energy. As part of these activities in the USA, there are major initiatives focused on "life extension" for existing light-water nuclear power reactors (LWR) from 60 to 80 (or 100) years. To enable longer term operation, a range of advanced diagnostics and prognostics methods that are suitable for on-line, continuous, in-plant monitoring over extended time periods (months to years) are necessary. A central issue in life extension for the current fleet of LWRs is the early detection and monitoring of materials degradation. Material aging and degradation due to stresses and irradiation is a critical element in assessing potential for the failure of components in legacy nuclear power plants. A related issue is the ability to estimate remaining useful life (RUL) of components and systems based on condition assessment or degradation information. Detection of early stage damage in materials and assessment of remaining life is important in proactive or prognostic-based life management of legacy nuclear power plants. These approaches go beyond what is currently included in "condition-based maintenance," this strategy can potentially improve safety and reduce costs by detecting damage and scheduling appropriate maintenance/mitigation strategies early in the component lifecycle. For early detection of degradation, novel nondestructive (i.e., without destroying the utility of the specimen) tests that are suitable for continuous monitoring over extended time periods are needed, as are new techniques for data integration. The challenge of predicting remaining life starting from earlier phases of degradation is also largely unsolved and will require new prognostics tools. This paper will discuss the development and application of advanced diagnostics and prognostics tools to the life extension problem. The focus of these activities will be on ferritic and stainless steels, and degradation mechanisms common to an LWR operating environment in these materials. The use of micromagnetic measurements to assess early stages of degradation will be discussed. The measurements will be used, along with models of degradation accumulation over time, to assess the remaining useful life using a Bayesian prognostic algorithm. The primary advantage of a Bayesian approach is the ability to incorporate a priori information to constrain the solution of the problem and mitigate uncertainties in the measurements. Further, a Bayesian approach enables the incorporation of additional information as it becomes available, which can be used to update, and refine, the RUL estimates. Results of the proposed techniques on experimentally acquired measurements will be presented in the full paper.

diagnostics↗

DOE OSTI2014

Towards Adaptive Educational Assessments: Predicting Student Performance using Temporal Stability and Data Analytics in Learning Management Systems

Data-driven assessments and adaptive feedback are becoming a cornerstone research in educational data analytics and involve developing methods for exploring the unique types of data that come from the educational context. For example, predicting college student performance is crucial for both the students and educational institutions. It can support timely intervention to prevent students from failing a course, increasing efficacy of advising functions, and improving course completion rate. In this paper, we present our efforts in using data analytics that enable educationists to design novel data-driven assessment and feedback mechanisms. In order to achieve this objective, we investigate temporal stability of students grades and perform predictive analytics on academic data collected from 2009 through 2013 in one of the most commonly used learning management systems, called Moodle. First, we have identified the data features useful for assessments and predicting student outcomes such as students scores in homework assignments, quizzes, exams, in addition to their activities in discussion forums and their total Grade Point Average(GPA) at the same term they enrolled in the course. Second, time series models in both frequency and time domains are applied to characterize the progression as well as overall projections of the grades. In particular, the model analyzed the stability as well as fluctuation of grades among students during the collegiate years (from freshman to senior) and disciplines. Third, Logistic Regression and Neural Network predictive models are used to identify students as early as possible who are in danger of failing the course they are currently enrolled in. These models compute the likelihood of any given student failing (or passing) the current course. The time series analysis indicates that assessments and continuous feedback are critical for freshman and sophomores (even with easy courses) than for seniors, and those assessments may be provided using the predictive models. Numerical results are presented to evaluate and compare the performance of the developed models and their predictive accuracy. Our results show that there are strong ties associated with the first few weeks for coursework and they have an impact on the design and distribution of individual modules.

adaptive learning↗

DOE OSTI2015

Combined Sustainability Assessment and Techno-Economic Analysis for the Production of Biomass-Derived High-Octane Gasoline Blendstock

Conversion technologies for biomass to liquid hydrocarbon fuels are being actively developed. Converting biomass into advanced hydrocarbon fuels requires detailed assessments to help prioritize research; techno-economic analysis (TEA) is a long established tool used to assess feasibility and progress. TEA provides information needed to make informed judgments about the viability of any given conceptual conversion process; it is particularly useful to identify technical barriers and measure progress toward overcoming those barriers. Expansion of the cellulosic biofuels industry at the scale needed to meet the Renewable Fuel Standard goals is also expected to have environmental impacts. Hence, the success of the biofuels industry depends not only on economic viability, but also on environmental sustainability. A biorefinery process that is economically feasible but suffers from key sustainability drawbacks is not likely to represent a long-term solution to replace fossil-derived fuels. Overarching concerns like environmental sustainability need to be addressed for biofuels production. Combined TEA and environmental sustainability assessment of emerging pathways helps facilitate biorefinery designs that are both economically feasible and minimally impactful to the environment. This study focuses on environmental sustainability assessment and techno-economic analysis for the production of high-octane gasoline blendstock via gasification and methanol/dimethyl ether intermediates. Results from the conceptual process design with economic analysis, along with the quantification and assessment of the environmental sustainability, are presented and discussed. Sustainability metrics associated with the production of high-octane gasoline include carbon conversion efficiency, consumptive water use, life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions, fossil energy consumption, energy return on investment and net energy value.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Spreadsheet Assessment Tool v. 2.4

The Spreadsheet Assessment Tool (SAT) is an easy to use, blast assessment tool that is intended to estimate the potential risk due to an explosive attack on a blood irradiator. The estimation of risk is based on the methodology, assumptions, and results of a detailed blast effects assessment study that is summarized in Sandia National Laboratories Technical Report SAND2015-6166. Risk as defined in the report and as used in the SAT is: "The potential risk of creating an air blast-induced vent opening at a buildings envelope surface". Vent openings can be created at a buildings envelope through the failure of an exterior building component—like a wall, window, or door—due to an explosive sabotage of an irradiator within the building. To estimate risk, the tool requires that users obtain and input information pertaining to the building's characteristics and the irradiator location. The tool also suggests several prescriptive mitigation strategies that can be considered to reduce risk. Given the variability in civilian building construction practices, the input parameters used by this tool may not apply to all buildings being assessed. The tool should not be used as a substitute for engineering judgment. The tool is intended for assessment purposes only.

Allen, David J.↗

DOE OSTI2017

Advanced Reactor PSA Methodologies for System Reliability Analysis and Source Term Assessment

Beginning in 2015, a project was initiated to update and modernize the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of the GE-Hitachi PRISM sodium fast reactor. This project is a collaboration between GE-Hitachi and Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne), and funded in part by the U.S. Department of Energy. Specifically, the role of Argonne is to assess the reliability of passive safety systems, complete a mechanistic source term calculation, and provide component reliability estimates. The assessment of passive system reliability focused on the performance of the Reactor Vessel Auxiliary Cooling System (RVACS) and the inherent reactivity feedback mechanisms of the metal fuel core. The mechanistic source term assessment attempted to provide a sequence specific source term evaluation to quantify offsite consequences. Lastly, the reliability assessment focused on components specific to the sodium fast reactor, including electromagnetic pumps, intermediate heat exchangers, the steam generator, and sodium valves and piping.

Passive Systems↗

DOE OSTI2019

ASSESSMENT OF NORMALITY FOR CRITICALITY SAFETY BIAS AND BIAS UNCERTAINTY CALCULATION

The single-sided lower tolerance factors frequently used for non-trending assessment of the validation bias and bias uncertainty are sensitive to departures from normality. When used properly, the tolerance limits ensure that an appropriate fraction of the true population of applicable critical experiments lies above the calculated lower tolerance limit with the required statistical confidence level. One condition necessary to ensure that the appropriate proportion of the true population of keff values in the validation suite lies above the lower tolerance limit is that the assumption that the normality of the underlying population of critical experiments is valid or conservative.This paper discusses various methods used to assess whether the assumption that the validation suite may be treated as a random sample drawn from a normal distribution is acceptable. Techniques for assessing the validity of this underlying assumption include common omnibus hypothesis tests for normality, assessment of sample skewness and kurtosis of the validation suite, and graphical techniques. These techniques are used to assess the nature and potential conservatism/nonconservatism imparted by various departures from normality where possible. A review of hypothesis testing is also presented to frame the discussion of omnibus normality tests. Additionally, two cases are analysed with these techniques to provide an example of how they should be implemented.

Clarity, Justin↗

DOE OSTI2022

Initial ASME code rule analysis on Simple and Full assessment

ASME & ASTM codes present simple and full assessment methodologies to qualify nuclear grade graphite components. This report explains the theory behind the statistical portion of the codes and describes the issues discussed in a 2020 workshop in the simple assessment, as well as the full assessment. The methodology for the full assessment was developed by Hindley []. He used a validation methodology to match the experimental average failure load of test specimens from several geometries to the calculated 50% POF load to tune the grouping criteria parameters based on an RMSE penalty function. The grouping criteria consists of a minimum volume to satisfy the weakest link theory of the Weibull distribution and a minimum stress range parameter. Hindley’s work found a minimum link volume of 10 times the grain size and a stress range parameter of 7% [satisfy the validation requirements. Several studies found that the link volume of 10 times the grain size was not satisfactory for the volume grouping criteria for graphite grades with fine grains. ASME 2021 code adopted a new volume grouping criteria based on fracture toughness for calculation of the process zone volume. However, errors were found in the ASME 2021 code process zone volume equation and the question is now open as to what volume grouping criteria is satisfactory. This report presents results from sensitivity studies that were done to evaluate the volume grouping criteria effect on the full assessment POF. This report also presents results from sensitivity studies on other aspects of the code that affect the POF, the mesh size and the choice of the Weibull threshold parameter. All three sensitivity studies: the volume grouping criteria, the mesh size, and the threshold parameter choice are found to affect the component qualification decision for components of structural reliability class 1 (SRC-1). The sensitivity analysis results are presented in the body of the report for NBG-18, which is the same grade of graphite as Hindley used in his thesis. Results from NBG-17, IG-110, 2114, and PCEA are presented in the Appendix. For NBG-18, it was found that increasing the threshold increases the POF, finer meshes result in higher POFs, and that smaller link volume requirements lead to higher POFs (which is inconsistent with Hindley’s findings). This report proposes a new validation study similar to Hindley’s []. The purpose of the new validation study is to tune the threshold, mesh size and grouping criteria based on results from multiple grades of graphite, including finer grain graphites T220 (1-3 microns) and NG-CT-50 (5 microns). The test specimens will be broken at 3 labs, such that we can measure between lab measurement variability, with at least 5 test specimens per lab such that the within lab uncertainty can also be measured. Hindley’s validation method tried matching the average experimental load with the median. The future study will attempt to match failures at lower percentiles, which would be closer to the SRC POF limit. We are currently looking into what geometries make sense and the best method to measure multi-axial stress states. These design decisions are still being set.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Internal Collaboration on Recent Nuclear Criticality Safety Assessments

Prevention of inadvertent criticality at facilities with large quantities of fissionable materials is one of the most important requirements those facilities grapple with. Given that criticality cannot be mitigated, only eliminated, a hard line must be taken on this requirement. The facilities and sites with the possibility of such an event must abide by a plethora of requirements, most stemming from the ANSI/ANS-8 series of consensus standards. One such standard, ANSI/ANS-8.19, Administrative Practices for Nuclear Criticality Safety, gives requirements and recommendations necessary for establishing a nuclear criticality safety program for a given facility or site. One of those requirements includes periodic assessments of the NCS program. To meet the assessment requirement, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) conducts periodic assessments on individual facilities and overall programmatic health aspects. The teams developed to perform these assessments include people both inside and outside the LANL NCS program. Recently, the Nuclear Criticality Safety Division and the Critical Experiments Team of the Advanced Nuclear Technology Group established a collaboration to aid in fulfilling the assessment requirement.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Comprehensive Assessment Tool for Low-TRL Current Energy Converters

Along with a market-competitive levelized cost of energy, a current energy converter technology strongly benefits from an extensive consideration of socioeconomic, environmental, and regulatory factors early in the design process. As part of a technology performance level assessment, a series of assessment questions and guidance are developed and presented to evaluate an early-stage current energy technology on holistic criteria considering the entire device lifecycle. The assessment represents an accumulation of industry and research experience to date and relies on regular updates to ensure alignment with industry best-practices, regulatory requirements, and up-to-date technical understanding. A cradle-to-grave (materials, manufacturing, installation and deployment, operations and maintenance, and end-of-life) assessment of capabilities and functional requirements for tidal, river, and ocean current technologies has been completed. This work presents the evaluation questions and qualitative performance criteria for current energy converters deployed in tidal, ocean current, and/or river applications. Key considerations related to manufacturing and installation include supply chain robustness, manufacturability and related job creation in the end-user and/or adjacent communities, and the time-to-repayment of the embodied energy debt. During deployment and maintenance operations, the safety of the device and subsystems during disconnect or grid failure, the difficulty and frequency of offshore heavy-lift activities, the avoidance or mitigation of area use conflicts, the sea-states and weather conditions that permit maintenance access, and the availability of contingency plans (should conditions change unexpectedly) are a portion of the considered assessment criteria. Results include the potential impact of early-stage design decisions on the socioeconomic, environmental, and regulatory performance of a technology that allows developers to increase the product value and probability of success, and minimize costly late-stage design iterations through early and broad consideration of factors affecting overall performance and acceptability.

converter↗

DOE OSTI2013

Linking RESRAD-OFFSITE and HYDROGEOCHEM Model for Performance Assessment of Low-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal Facility - 13429

Performance assessments are crucial steps for the long-term radiological safety requirements of low-level waste (LLW) disposal facility. How much concentration of radionuclides released from the near-field to biosphere and what radiation exposure levels of an individual can influence on the satisfactory performance of the LLW disposal facility and safety disposal environment. Performance assessment methodology for the radioactive waste disposal consists of the reactive transport modeling of safety-concerned radionuclides released from the near-field to the far-field, and the potential exposure pathways and the movements of radionuclides through the geosphere, biosphere and man of which the accompanying dose. Therefore, the integration of hydrogeochemical transport model and dose assessment code, HYDROGEOCHEM code and RESRAD family of codes is imperative. The RESRAD family of codes such as RESRAD-OFFSITE computer code can evaluate the radiological dose and excess cancer risk to an individual who is exposed while located within or outside the area of initial (primary) contamination. The HYDROGEOCHEM is a 3-D numerical model of fluid flow, thermal, hydrologic transport, and biogeochemical kinetic and equilibrium reactions in saturated and unsaturated media. The HYDROGEOCHEM model can also simulate the crucial geochemical mechanism, such as the effect of redox processes on the adsorption/desorption, hydrogeochemical influences on concrete degradation, adsorption/desorption of radionuclides (i.e., surface complexation model) between solid and liquid phase in geochemically dynamic environments. To investigate the safety assessment of LLW disposal facility, linking RESRAD-OFFSITE and HYDROGEOCHEM model can provide detailed tools of confidence in the protectiveness of the human health and environmental impact for safety assessment of LLW disposal facility. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2017

Integrated Disposal Facility Performance Assessment: Modeling Consistency to Support Regulatory Decision Making at Hanford - 17398

Under DOE Order 435.1, 'Radioactive Waste Management', Washington River Protection Solutions, LLC and INTERA, Inc are currently preparing a performance assessment for the Hanford Integrated Disposal Facility, a near-surface low-activity waste disposal facility located on the Hanford Site in southeast Washington State. The disposal facility is expected to receive vitrified low-activity waste produced at the Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant, as well as other secondary solid wastes generated during the treatment process. The performance assessment performs the analyses that will be relied upon to receive the Disposal Authorization Statement, establish waste acceptance criteria, modify the RCRA permit for the facility and make a waste-incidental-to-reprocessing determination for the vitrified tank waste. In January 2006 in the case State of Washington v. Bodman (Civil No. 2:03-cv-05018-AAM), DOE, the Washington State Department of Ecology (Ecology) and the State of Washington Attorney General's office reached a settlement agreement in Ecology's claim regarding off-site waste shipments to Hanford and the adequacy of modeling in the environmental impact statement. In response to the agreement, the DOE Office of Environmental Management set a policy to establish a consistent use of commercially available and public domain software for a vadose zone and groundwater model platform to support regulatory decisions at Hanford. In October 2012, the Associate Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for Environmental Management released a memorandum to the manager of the Richland Operation Office directing how future environmental modeling activities to support regulatory decision making on the Hanford Site would be undertaken to be consistent with the 2006 settlement agreement. The preparation of the performance assessment must meet DOE Order 435.1 requirements and the additional direction provided by DOE. This paper will identify the approach taken to comply with the requirements in the 2012 memorandum. The paper will describe how environmental modeling performed for the 2017 Integrated Disposal Facility Performance Assessment was planned in a phased approach and how the current modeling is tied to the analyses that supported the decisions made in the environmental impact statement published in 2012. Additionally, the selection and qualification of the software selected to perform modeling activities for the performance assessment will be described. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2017

Software Quality Assurance for LeachXS/ORCHESTRA as a Tool for Assessment of Waste Management Systems Performance - 17486

Qualified modeling and simulation tools and experimental data are needed to provide a reasonable basis for the incorporation of realistic wasteform retention assumptions (i.e., those without orders-of-magnitude conservatism) into performance assessments and regulatory decisions. Use of highly conservative assumptions in performance assessments has historically led to the overprediction of release and near-field transport by as much as 4- to 6-orders of magnitude thereby limiting the nature and quantities of certain contaminants of concern in near surface disposal facilities. This project provides peer-reviewed models and characterization methods to provide more reasonable assumptions for use in performance assessments and regulatory decisions. Simulations tools have been developed to predict hydraulic and chemical performance of waste-forms and barriers used in nuclear applications under several important aging and degradation scenarios, including sulfate attack, carbonation, oxidation, cracking, and leaching; these tools are complaint with DOE Order 414.1D and ASME NQA-1. Wasteform characterization methods have been developed that are consistent with US EPA's Leaching Environmental Assessment Framework (LEAF) currently part of EPA's Hazardous Waste Test Methods (SW-846); the resulting experimental data are evaluated using LeachXS. ORCHESTRA models, that can be called seamlessly from LeachXS, have been developed representing both laboratory and field conditions; these models have undergone an extensive Software Quality Assurance process where they have been calibrated (where necessary), verified, and validated to be compliant with relevant guidelines. The models used for field predictions have also been incorporated into the Cementitious Barriers Partnership (CBP) Software Toolbox that allows probabilistic evaluation of field scenarios. The foci over the next year will be on providing 1) a mechanistic basis for projecting the retention of Tc-99, I-129, and other important radionuclides in near-surface disposal facilities at the Savannah River and Hanford Sites and 2) a technical basis for assessing the efficacy of macro-encapsulation of mercury-contaminated debris at the Oak Ridge Reservation. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2015

A whole wilderness of warning: Assessing economic consequences of nuclear releases - 15494

The consequences of the Fukushima Dai-ichi disaster may provide a useful analogue for assessing the consequences of an accident involving the transport of spent nuclear fuel in the United States. An unexamined, to date, aspect of the Fukushima Dai-ichi disaster is the wide disagreement about the economic consequences of the release. There exist a variety of different estimates and different models and methods for performing these estimates, but not a systematic way to address the range of issues such a disaster generated. This paper examines the sources, methods, data, and assumptions used to prepare economic consequence estimates of the disaster. This paper compares and contrasts these estimates and evaluates them for their reliability. The wide dispersion of consequence assessments as defined by various media and agency impact reports in the post-Fukushima era are evidence that such variability does not serve the industry, regulators, government or researchers well. While a protocol exists to gauge the intensity of an incident (INES Scale) no pre-existing methodology exists to measure the various socioeconomic impacts associated with a radiological disaster, be it induced by a natural disaster incident or human initiated. This paper argues that an improved method will be necessary and suggests some parameters for such a method. Nevada has started the dialogue on such a comprehensive methodology (Ballard 2012, Ballard 2014). Despite this effort by a stakeholder, the regulatory agencies involved in nuclear waste shipments in the United States appear reluctant to begin a dialogue about how to address the full range and scope of issues. Resolution of this problem will be a necessary prerequisite to any large scale shipping program. It will be necessary to adopt a standardized methodology to assess consequences of a radiological emergency and incorporate this into the environmental impact statement process for the shipping program. This analytical deficiency should be addressed by these agencies/regulators and in preparation for the potential movement of nuclear waste in the quantities necessary to service the nuclear power industry and to address the existing spent nuclear fuel (SNF) stockpiles across the United States. It will be necessary to demonstrate to stakeholders that the benefits of shipping radioactive substances this dangerous outweigh the costs of a possible accident or terrorist incident. The nuclear energy industry should support funding for these assessment studies in order to provide a basis for discussions about the costs and benefits of the shipments. The studies would provide stakeholders with clarity about the possible consequences of the program. The studies will also assist Japan in its efforts to understand what their disaster means for that country. This paper will begin the dialogue on how such analytical protocols could be constructed to pre-stage the research necessary to assess such consequences. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗