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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 937 records · Page 52
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Recent Upper Colorado River Streamflow Declines Driven by Loss of Spring Precipitation

Abstract Colorado River streamflow has decreased 19% since 2000. Spring (March‐April‐May) weather strongly influences Upper Colorado River streamflow because it controls not only water input but also when snow melts and how much energy is available for evaporation when soils are wettest. Since 2000, spring precipitation decreased by 14% on average across 26 unregulated headwater basins, but this decrease did not fully account for the reduced streamflow. In drier springs, increases in energy from reduced cloud cover, and lowered surface albedo from earlier snow disappearance, coincided with potential evapotranspiration (PET) increases of up to 10%. Combining spring precipitation decreases with PET increases accounted for 67% of the variance in post‐2000 streamflow deficits. Streamflow deficits were most substantial in lower elevation basins (<2,950 m), where snowmelt occurred earliest, and precipitation declines were largest. Refining seasonal spring precipitation forecasts is imperative for future water availability predictions in this snow‐dominated water resource region.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Atmospheric River Detection Under Changing Seasonality and Mean-State Climate: ARTMIP Tier 2 Paleoclimate Experiments

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are filamentary structures within the atmosphere that account for a substantial portion of poleward moisture transport and play an important role in Earth's hydroclimate. However, there is no one quantitative definition for what constitutes an atmospheric river, leading to uncertainty in quantifying how these systems respond to global change. This study seeks to better understand how different AR detection tools (ARDTs) respond to changes in climate states utilizing single-forcing climate model experiments under the aegis of the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP). We compare a simulation with an early Holocene orbital configuration and another with CO2 levels of the Last Glacial Maximum to a preindustrial control simulation to test how the ARDTs respond to changes in seasonality and mean climate state, respectively. We find good agreement among the algorithms in the AR response to the changing orbital configuration, with a poleward shift in AR frequency that tracks seasonal poleward shifts in atmospheric water vapor and zonal winds. In the low CO2 simulation, the algorithms generally agree on the sign of AR changes, but there is substantial spread in their magnitude, indicating that mean-state changes lead to larger uncertainty. This disagreement likely arises primarily from differences between algorithms in their thresholds for water vapor and its transport used for identifying ARs. These findings warrant caution in ARDT selection for paleoclimate and climate change studies in which there is a change to the mean climate state, as ARDT selection contributes substantial uncertainty in such cases.

Atmospheric river, paleoclimate↗
DOE OSTI2025

Temporal Variability in Reservoir Surface Area Is an Important Source of Uncertainty in GHG Emission Estimates

Ebullitive methane (CH 4 ) emissions in lentic ecosystems tend to concentrate at river-lake interfaces and within shallow littoral zones. However, inconsistent definitions of the littoral zone and static representations of the lake or reservoir surface area contribute to major uncertainties in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions estimates, particularly in reservoirs with large water-level fluctuations. This study examines temporal variation in littoral and total surface areas of US reservoirs and demonstrates how different methods and data sources lead to discrepencies in reservoir GHG emissions at large scales and over time. We also explore variability in remotely sensed water occurrence according to maximum surface area, reservoir purposes, and hydrologic regions. Notably, the largest relative variability in surface area is exhibited by small reservoirs with a maximum surface area <1 km 2 and non-hydroelectric reservoirs. Additionally, we use a case study of measured CH 4 emissions from the southeastern United States (Douglas Reservoir) to illustrate the effects of varying surface area on reservoir-wide GHG estimates. Upscaled CH 4 emissions in Douglas Reservoir differed by nearly two-fold depending on the source of total surface area data and whether estimates accounted for seasonal fluctuations in surface area. During seasonal drawdown in Douglas Reservoir, relative littoral area varies non-linearly; periods of lower pool elevation (and thus larger relative littoral area) likely contribute disproportionately high CH 4 emission rates compared to the commonly sampled summer season when water levels are at full-pool elevation. Improved GHG monitoring and upscaling techniques require accounting for temporal variability in reservoir surface extent and littoral area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Mass Conservation Relaxed (MCR) LSTM Model for Streamflow Simulation Across CONUS

The recent development of the physics-aware Mass-Conserving Long Short-Term Memory network (MC-LSTM) provides an alternative to other data-driven Deep Learning (DL) models in hydrology. Mass-Conserving Long Short-Term Memory incorporates mass conservation directly into the LSTM architecture. Despite the theoretical advancements, studies have reported a surprisingly limited performance of the MC-LSTM in streamflow simulation. We hypothesize that such a limitation is due to the unrealistic mass conservation scheme in MC-LSTM, which overlooks unobserved incoming water fluxes beyond precipitation. As an attempt to verify this hypothesis, we propose a Mass Conservation Relaxed LSTM (MCR-LSTM), which incorporates a bi-directional mass relaxation (MR) component to account for potential incoming water fluxes beyond precipitation. We train and test the proposed MCR-LSTM model across 531 watersheds in the contiguous United States (CONUS) against three baseline models: the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting, LSTM, and MC-LSTM. Our results show that MCR-LSTM outperforms MC-LSTM despite its underperformance compared to LSTM. Specifically, MCR-LSTM's advantage over MC-LSTM is mainly seen in the Plains and Western U.S., where the newly incorporated MR component better simulates water loss and suggests the likely existence of additional incoming water fluxes beyond precipitation, respectively. The novelty and contribution of this study are twofold: firstly, it introduces an alternative physics-aware DL tool (i.e., MCR-LSTM) in hydrology with higher accuracy in specific regions compared to MC-LSTM. Secondly, it provides a diagnosis of regions where strict, precipitation-based mass conservation constraints may be unrealistic in streamflow simulation.

deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2021

Power sector investment implications of climate impacts on renewable resources in Latin America and the Caribbean

Climate change mitigation will require substantial investments in renewables. In addition, climate change will affect future renewable supply and hence, power sector investment requirements. We study the implications of climate impacts on renewables for power sector investments under deep decarbonization using a global integrated assessment model. We focus on Latin American and Caribbean, an under-studied region but of great interest due to its strong role in international climate mitigation and vulnerability to climate change. We find that accounting for climate impacts on renewables results in significant additional investments ($12–114 billion by 2100 across Latin American countries) for a region with weak financial infrastructure. We also demonstrate that accounting for climate impacts only on hydropower—a primary focus of previous studies—significantly underestimates cumulative investments, particularly in scenarios with high intermittent renewable deployment. Our study underscores the importance of comprehensive analyses of climate impacts on renewables for improved energy planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of bulk-edge coupling on observation of anyonic braiding statistics in quantum Hall interferometers

Abstract Quantum Hall interferometers have been used to probe fractional charge and statistics of quasiparticles. We present measurements of a small Fabry–Perot interferometer in which the electrostatic coupling constants which affect interferometer behavior can be determined experimentally. Near the center of the ν = 1/3 state this device exhibits Aharonov–Bohm interference interrupted by a few discrete phase jumps, and Φ 0 oscillations at higher and lower magnetic fields, consistent with theoretical predictions for detection of anyonic statistics. We estimate the electrostatic parameters K I and K I L by two methods: using the ratio of oscillation periods in compressible versus incompressible regions, and from finite-bias conductance measurements. We find that the extracted K I and K I L can account for the deviation of the phase jumps from the theoretical anyonic phase θ a = 2 π /3. At integer states, we find that K I and K I L can account for the Aharonov–Bohm and Coulomb-dominated behavior of different edge states.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deforestation-induced climate change reduces carbon storage in remaining tropical forests

Abstract Biophysical effects from deforestation have the potential to amplify carbon losses but are often neglected in carbon accounting systems. Here we use both Earth system model simulations and satellite–derived estimates of aboveground biomass to assess losses of vegetation carbon caused by the influence of tropical deforestation on regional climate across different continents. In the Amazon, warming and drying arising from deforestation result in an additional 5.1 ± 3.7% loss of aboveground biomass. Biophysical effects also amplify carbon losses in the Congo (3.8 ± 2.5%) but do not lead to significant additional carbon losses in tropical Asia due to its high levels of annual mean precipitation. These findings indicate that tropical forests may be undervalued in carbon accounting systems that neglect climate feedbacks from surface biophysical changes and that the positive carbon–climate feedback from deforestation-driven climate change is higher than the feedback originating from fossil fuel emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Rising ecosystem water demand exacerbates the lengthening of tropical dry seasons

Precipitation-based assessments show a lengthening of tropical dry seasons under climate change, without considering simultaneous changes in ecosystem water demand. Here, we compare changes in tropical dry season length and timing when dry season is defined as the period when precipitation is less than: its climatological average, potential evapotranspiration, or actual evapotranspiration. While all definitions show more widespread tropical drying than wetting for 1983-2016, we find the largest fraction (48.7%) of tropical land probably experiencing longer dry seasons when dry season is defined as the period when precipitation cannot meet the need of actual evapotranspiration. Southern Amazonia (due to delayed end) and central Africa (due to earlier onset and delayed end) are hotspots of dry season lengthening, with greater certainty when accounting for water demand changes. Therefore, it is necessary to account for changing water demand when characterizing changes in tropical dry periods and ecosystem water deficits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Forest expansion dominates China’s land carbon sink since 1980

Carbon budget accounting relies heavily on Food and Agriculture Organization land-use data reported by governments. Here we develop a new land-use and cover-change database for China, finding that differing historical survey methods biased China’s reported data causing large errors in Food and Agriculture Organization databases. Land ecosystem model simulations driven with the new data reveal a strong carbon sink of 8.9 ± 0.8 Pg carbon from 1980 to 2019 in China, which was not captured in Food and Agriculture Organization data-based estimations due to biased land-use and cover-change signals. The land-use and cover-change in China, characterized by a rapid forest expansion from 1980 to 2019, contributed to nearly 44% of the national terrestrial carbon sink. In contrast, climate changes (22.3%), increasing nitrogen deposition (12.9%), and rising carbon dioxide (8.1%) are less important contributors. This indicates that previous studies have greatly underestimated the impact of land-use and cover-change on the terrestrial carbon balance of China. This study underlines the importance of reliable land-use and cover-change databases in global carbon budget accounting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The evolution of dam induced river fragmentation in the United States

It is established that dams decrease river connectivity; however, previous global scale studies of river fragmentation focused on a small subset of the largest dams. In the United States, mid-sized dams, which are too small for global databases, account for 96% of major anthropogenic structures and 48% of reservoir storage. We conduct a national evaluation of the evolution of anthropogenic river bifurcation over time that includes more than 50,000 nationally inventoried dams. Mid-sized dams account for 73% of anthropogenically created stream fragments nationally. They also contribute disproportionately to short fragments (less than 10 km), which is particularly troubling for aquatic habitats. Here we show that dam construction has essentially reversed natural fragmentation patterns in the United States. Prior to human development, smaller river fragments and less connected networks occurred in arid basins while today we show that humid basins are the most fragmented due to human structures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Microbial growth under drought is confined to distinct taxa and modified by potential future climate conditions

Climate change increases the frequency and intensity of drought events, affecting soil functions including carbon sequestration and nutrient cycling, which are driven by growing microorganisms. Yet we know little about microbial responses to drought due to methodological limitations. Here, we estimate microbial growth rates in montane grassland soils exposed to ambient conditions, drought, and potential future climate conditions (i.e., soils exposed to 6 years of elevated temperatures and elevated CO 2 levels). For this purpose, we combined 18 O-water vapor equilibration with quantitative stable isotope probing (termed ‘vapor-qSIP’) to measure taxon-specific microbial growth in dry soils. In our experiments, drought caused >90% of bacterial and archaeal taxa to stop dividing and reduced the growth rates of persisting ones. Under drought, growing taxa accounted for only 4% of the total community as compared to 35% in the controls. Drought-tolerant communities were dominated by specialized members of the Actinobacteriota, particularly the genus Streptomyces. Six years of pre-exposure to future climate conditions (3 °C warming and + 300 ppm atmospheric CO 2 ) alleviated drought effects on microbial growth, through more drought-tolerant taxa across major phyla, accounting for 9% of the total community. Our results provide insights into the response of active microbes to drought today and in a future climate, and highlight the importance of studying drought in combination with future climate conditions to capture interactive effects and improve predictions of future soil-climate feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Impact of solvent forces and broken symmetry on the assembly of designed proteins at a liquid-solid interface

The era of protein design has enabled the creation of hybrid protein-inorganic interfaces, leading to both surface-directed self-assembly of de novo protein architectures and protein-directed formation of inorganic materials. However, the resulting patterns of protein assembly are often unexpected, implying that essential interactions are not accounted for in current design platforms. Here, we use high-speed atomic force microscopy (AFM) analyzed through machine learning to follow the assembly of protein nanorods in aqueous electrolytes on two types of mica exhibiting disparate symmetry elements, which are imprinted on the overlying hydration structure. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we reproduce the observed phases and show that an observed smectic phase, previously thought to be unstable for non-interacting rods in two dimensions, emerges when crystal symmetry introduces a directional bias. The findings demonstrate the importance of incorporating solvent forces as modulated by the hydration structure inherent to interfacial systems when designing protein assemblies at liquid-crystal interfaces. Coupling physics-based simulations that can account for these factors to de novo protein design algorithms can lead to improved design platforms for bio-inspired, hybrid materials.

bioinspired materials↗
DOE OSTI2026

Trivalent titanium in high-titanium lunar ilmenite

Lunar mare basalts are often rich in titanium, hosted predominantly within the mineral ilmenite (Fe 2+ Ti 4+ O 3 ). Here, we examine ilmenite in a ~3.8 billion-year-old mare basalt (Apollo rock 75035) using high-resolution electron microscopy and electron energy loss spectroscopy. A key finding is that 75035 ilmenite is itself enriched in Ti, beyond the end member of the conventional solid solution series. Using energy loss near-edge spectroscopy, we determine that the excess Ti is trivalent, with Ti 3+ accounting for 13% of the total Ti content. This discovery confirms the presence of trivalent Ti in lunar ilmenite, long hypothesized based on the Moon’s reducing environment. Accounting for the change in implied stoichiometry, a review of literature data suggests that Ti 3+ may be present in ilmenite across a wide range of lunar samples. We extrapolate known relationships from the literature to connect Ti 3+ to redox conditions, estimating the oxygen fugacity during crystallization of 75035 to be below the iron-wüstite buffer, ΔIW≤ − 1.6. Further quantifying the relationship between Ti valence state and oxygen fugacity would allow Ti 3+ -bearing ilmenite to serve as an oxybarometer able to access the reducing conditions found on many planetary bodies.

mineralogy↗
DOE OSTI2021

Finite-size correction for slab supercell calculations of materials with spontaneous polarization

Abstract The repeated slab approach has become a de facto standard to accurately describe surface properties of materials by density functional theory calculations with periodic boundary conditions. For materials exhibiting spontaneous polarization, we show that the conventional scheme of passivation with pseudo hydrogen is unable to realize a charge-neutral surface. The presence of a net surface charge induces via Gauss’s law a macroscopic electric field through the slab and results in poor size convergence with respect to the thickness of the slab. We propose a modified passivation method that accounts for the effect of spontaneous polarization, describes the correct bulk limits and boosts convergence with respect to slab thickness. The robustness, reliability, and superior convergence of energetics and electronic structure achieved by the proposed method are demonstrated using the example of polar ZnO surfaces.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting temperature-dependent ultimate strengths of body-centered-cubic (BCC) high-entropy alloys

This paper presents a bilinear log model, for predicting temperature-dependent ultimate strength of high-entropy alloys (HEAs) based on 21 HEA compositions. We consider the break temperature, T break , introduced in the model, an important parameter for design of materials with attractive high-temperature properties, one warranting inclusion in alloy specifications. For reliable operation, the operating temperature of alloys may need to stay below T break . We introduce a technique of global optimization, one enabling concurrent optimization of model parameters over low-temperature and high-temperature regimes. Furthermore, we suggest a general framework for joint optimization of alloy properties, capable of accounting for physics-based dependencies, and show how a special case can be formulated to address the identification of HEAs offering attractive ultimate strength. We advocate for the selection of an optimization technique suitable for the problem at hand and the data available, and for properly accounting for the underlying sources of variations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning of superconducting critical temperature from Eliashberg theory

Abstract The Eliashberg theory of superconductivity accounts for the fundamental physics of conventional superconductors, including the retardation of the interaction and the Coulomb pseudopotential, to predict the critical temperature T c . McMillan, Allen, and Dynes derived approximate closed-form expressions for the critical temperature within this theory, which depends on the electron–phonon spectral function α 2 F ( ω ). Here we show that modern machine-learning techniques can substantially improve these formulae, accounting for more general shapes of the α 2 F function. Using symbolic regression and the SISSO framework, together with a database of artificially generated α 2 F functions and numerical solutions of the Eliashberg equations, we derive a formula for T c that performs as well as Allen–Dynes for low- T c superconductors and substantially better for higher- T c ones. This corrects the systematic underestimation of T c while reproducing the physical constraints originally outlined by Allen and Dynes. This equation should replace the Allen–Dynes formula for the prediction of higher-temperature superconductors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Importance of charge self-consistency in first-principles description of strongly correlated systems

First-principles approaches have been successful in solving many-body Hamiltonians for real materials to an extent when correlations are weak or moderate. As the electronic correlations become stronger often embedding methods based on first-principles approaches are used to better treat the correlations by solving a suitably chosen many-body Hamiltonian with a higher level theory. The success of such embedding theories, often referred to as second-principles, is commonly measured by the quality of self-energy Σ which is either a function of energy or momentum or both. However, Σ should, in principle, also modify the electronic eigenfunctions and thus change the real space charge distribution. While such practices are not prevalent, some works that use embedding techniques do take into account these effects. In such cases, choice of partitioning, of the parameters defining the correlated Hamiltonian, of double-counting corrections, and the adequacy of low-level Hamiltonian hosting the correlated subspace hinder a systematic and unambiguous understanding of such effects. Further, for a large variety of correlated systems, strong correlations are largely confined to the charge sector. Then an adequate nonlocal low-order theory is important, and the high-order local correlations embedding contributes become redundant. Here we study the impact of charge self-consistency within two example cases, TiSe 2 and CrBr 3 , and show how real space charge re-distribution due to correlation effects taken into account within a first-principles Green’s function-based many-body perturbative approach is key in driving qualitative changes to the final electronic structure of these materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of microkinetic modeling assumptions on predicted kinetics and mechanisms over undercoordinated sites

Accurate modeling of catalytic reactions on undercoordinated sites requires accounting for the structural and ensemble-specific nature of the active sites. This study examines how common microkinetic modeling (MKM) assumptions affect predicted kinetics and mechanisms on the stepped Pt(211) facet for the ethane dehydrogenation (EDH) and the ethane hydrogenolysis (EH). Six (211) MKMs were developed, differing in (i) the number of active sites represented, (ii) adsorbate site occupancy treatment, and (iii) inclusion of cross-facet interactions. These models are benchmarked against a particle-based microkinetic model (PB-MKM), which best represents step-edge behavior. MKM assumptions caused deviations in turnover frequencies exceeding ten orders of magnitude and led to contrasting mechanistic and selectivity predictions. Multi-site MKMs overestimate activity by inflating free site availability, single-site models underestimate activity, and uniform occupancy models overpredict coverage of multi-dentate intermediates, leading to reaction-specific artifacts. Overall, the Combined Site Edge Model (CSEM), a single-site MKM accounting for site occupancy and cross-facet interactions, most closely approximates PB-MKM predictions. All models predict similar kinetics when surfaces are clean or primarily occupied by monodentate species. This work provides practical guidance for selecting MKM frameworks for undercoordinated catalytic surfaces and highlights the critical role of modeling assumptions in catalytic predictions.

(211) facet↗