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At least 919 records · Page 51
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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Seasonal Prediction of an Extreme Temperature Index over the United States

Heat extremes have the potential to cause significant societal harm; advanced warming of the frequency of these events for a given season could help with planning and mitigation measures. While an individual temperature extreme event may not be predictable on seasonal time scales, the number of such events could be. In this study, we use an index representing the number of extreme days per summer to examine the ability of NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction system to predict summertime temperature extremes over the continental United States. The index is defined as the number of days per summer (June-August) where the daily mean temperature is above the calendar-day 90th percentile and is computed for 1991-2020 using the GEOS-S2S seasonal retrospective forecasts as well as the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2). Temporal correlations are assessed over this period at the grid point scale, indicating significant correlation between the retrospective forecasts and MERRA-2, particularly in the western half of the United States. Spatial correlations between the retrospective forecast and MERRA-2 indices are computed over the United States for each year revealing year-to-year variability in the forecast skill. We investigate local and remote processes associated with increased prediction skill of summertime temperature extremes in a given year.

Natalie Thomas↗
NASA NTRS2010

Broken Ergodicity in Ideal, Homogeneous, Incompressible Turbulence

We discuss the statistical mechanics of numerical models of ideal homogeneous, incompressible turbulence and their relevance for dissipative fluids and magnetofluids. These numerical models are based on Fourier series and the relevant statistical theory predicts that Fourier coefficients of fluid velocity and magnetic fields (if present) are zero-mean random variables. However, numerical simulations clearly show that certain coefficients have a non-zero mean value that can be very large compared to the associated standard deviation. We explain this phenomena in terms of broken ergodicity', which is defined to occur when dynamical behavior does not match ensemble predictions on very long time-scales. We review the theoretical basis of broken ergodicity, apply it to 2-D and 3-D fluid and magnetohydrodynamic simulations of homogeneous turbulence, and show new results from simulations using GPU (graphical processing unit) computers.

Morin, Lee↗
NASA NTRS1982

The distribution and variability of mesospheric odd nitrogen - A theoretical investigation

Model calculations of the distribution of mesospheric odd nitrogen (NOx) predict large differences between the summer and winter hemispheres. The smallest mixing ratios occur in summer where dissociation of NO followed by recombination provides an efficient sink and creates a sharp minimum between 70 and 75 km. No such minimum occurs in the winter where a downward flux of NOx extends from the lower thermosphere into the upper stratosphere. However, dissociation still exerts a major influence on the NOx abundance in the winter hemisphere and limits the downward flow of nitric oxide to values much smaller than expected in the polar night.

Frederick, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Cross-Linked Nanotube Materials with Variable Stiffness Tethers

The constitutive properties of a cross-linked single-walled carbon nanotube material are predicted with a multi-scale model. The material is modeled as a transversely isotropic solid using concepts from equivalent-continuum modeling. The elastic constants are determined using molecular dynamics simulation. Some parameters of the molecular force field are determined specifically for the cross-linker from ab initio calculations. A demonstration of how the cross-linked nanotubes may affect the properties of a nanotube/polyimide composite is included using a micromechanical analysis.

Frankland, Sarah-Jane V.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Decadal Changes in the Interannual Variability of Heat Waves in East Asia Caused by Atmospheric Teleconnection Changes

The heat wave in East Asia is examined by using empirical orthogonal function analysis to isolate dominant heat-wave patterns in the ground-based temperature observations over the Korean Peninsula and China and related large-scale atmospheric circulations obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis 1 during 1973–2012. This study focuses particularly on the interannual variability of heat waves and its decadal change. The analysis identifies two major atmospheric teleconnection patterns playing an important role in developing typical heat-wave patterns in East Asia—the Scandinavian (SCAND) and the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) patterns, which exhibit a significant decadal change in the interannual variability in the mid-1990s. Before the mid-1990s, heat-wave occurrence was closely related to the CGT pattern, whereas the SCAND pattern is more crucial to explain heat-wave variability in the recent period. The stationary wave model experiments suggest an intensification of the SCAND pattern in the recent period driven by an increase in land–atmosphere interaction over Eurasia and decadal change in the dominant heat-wave patterns in East Asia.

heat wave patterns↗
NASA NTRS1995

Recent trends in ozone in the upper stratosphere: Implications for chlorine chemistry

We have studied the implications of recent trends in the annual mean and the amplitude of the annual harmonic of ozone in the upper stratosphere from the 15 years of the combined data from the Nimbus-7 SBUV and the NOAA-11 SBUV/2 instruments. This was done in the context of the GSFC 2D model predictions of these trends which are based on plausible scenarios of anthropogenic Cly increase in the atmosphere. The comparison of the observed and model-estimated annual mean ozone trends show some similarity in their latitude and altitude characteristics. Both the model and data show a maximum ozone decrease of -6 to -10 % per decade at high latitudes in the upper stratosphere. However, there are also significant differences between the observed and computed trends which may be related to both the model uncertainty and the uncertainty in correcting for the long term instrument drift. The observations also suggest a decrease of 10-25 % per decade in the annual amplitude of ozone at 2 mb between 40 deg - 60 deg in both hemispheres, with a relatively larger interannual variability in the northern hemisphere. These values are in general agreement with the model predictions and thus provide additional support in favor of the chlorine induced changes in ozone in the upper stratosphere.

Chandra, Sushil↗
NASA NTRS1976

Comparisons of flight measurements with predictions from aeroelastic models in the NASA Langley Transonic Dynamics Tunnel

The NASA Langley Transonic Dynamics Tunnel, which has a variable density Freon-12 (or air) test medium, was designed for the study of dynamics and aeroelastic problems of aerospace vehicles. During the 15 years of operation of this facility there have been various opportunities to compare wind tunnel and flight test results. Some of these opportunities arise from routine flight checks of the prototype, others from carefully designed comparative wind tunnel and flight experiments. Data obtained from various sources is presented. The topics covered are: gust and buffet response, control surface effectiveness, flutter, and active control of aeroelastic effects. Some benefits and shortcomings of Freon-12 as a test medium are also discussed. Although areas of uncertainly are evident and there is a continuing need for improvements in model simulation and testing techniques, the results indicate that predictions from aeroelastic model tests are, in general, substantiated by full scale flight tests.

Reed, W. H., III↗
NASA NTRS1975

Comparison of flight measurements with predictions from aeroelastic models in the NASA Langley Transonic Dynamics Tunnel

The NASA Langley Transonic Dynamics Tunnel, which has a variable density, Freon-12 (or air) test medium, was designed to study the dynamics and aeroelastic problems of aerospace vehicles. During the operation of this facility there have been various opportunities to compare wind tunnel and flight test results. Some of these opportunities arise from routine flight checks of the prototype, others from carefully designed comparative wind tunnel and flight experiments. A collection of data obtained from various published and unpublished sources is presented. The topics covered are: gust and buffet response, control surface effectiveness, flutter, and active control of aeroelastic effects. Some benefits and shortcomings of Freon-12 as a test medium are also discussed. Although areas of uncertainty are evident and there is a continuing need for improvements in model simulation and testing techniques, the results presented herein indicate that predictions from aeroelastic model tests are, in general, substantiated by full-scale flight tests.

Reed, W. H., III↗
NASA NTRS2004

Relating Satellite-Based Contrail Detection to NWA Output

Contrail-induced cloud cover has been shown to be a significant factor in regional climate change over the United States of America. As air traffic increases, the potential for globally significant impacts also rises. To better understand and predict these potential climatic effects, it is necessary to develop models that can accurately represent contrail properties based on ambient atmospheric variables including temperature, relative humidity and winds. Several high-resolution numerical weather analyses (NWA) including the 20-km Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) and the University of Oklahoma Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) can provide the temperature, humidity and wind information necessary to diagnose contrail formation. One outstanding problem that must be addressed to achieve a realistic simulation of contrails is the large uncertainties in upper tropospheric relative humidity (UTH) in numerical weather analyses. Current numerical weather analyses tend to underestimate UTH due to large dry biases in the balloon soundings used to construct the analyses. To evaluate each of the models, we match several months of contrail properties derived from satellite and surface observations to the NWA-derived humidity, vertical velocity, wind shear and atmospheric stability. The relationships between several contrail properties (including optical depth and areal contrail coverage) and the NWA-derived statistics will be analyzed to determine under which atmospheric conditions widespread contrail outbreaks are favored.

Duda, David P.↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Model of Reduced Kinetics for Alkane Oxidation Using Constituents and Species for N-Heptane

The reduction of elementary or skeletal oxidation kinetics to a subgroup of tractable reactions for inclusion in turbulent combustion codes has been the subject of numerous studies. The skeletal mechanism is obtained from the elementary mechanism by removing from it reactions that are considered negligible for the intent of the specific study considered. As of now, there are many chemical reduction methodologies. A methodology for deriving a reduced kinetic mechanism for alkane oxidation is described and applied to n-heptane. The model is based on partitioning the species of the skeletal kinetic mechanism into lights, defined as those having a carbon number smaller than 3, and heavies, which are the complement of the species ensemble. For modeling purposes, the heavy species are mathematically decomposed into constituents, which are similar but not identical to groups in the group additivity theory. From analysis of the LLNL (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory) skeletal mechanism in conjunction with CHEMKIN II, it is shown that a similarity variable can be formed such that the appropriately non-dimensionalized global constituent molar density exhibits a self-similar behavior over a very wide range of equivalence ratios, initial pressures and initial temperatures that is of interest for predicting n-heptane oxidation. Furthermore, the oxygen and water molar densities are shown to display a quasi-linear behavior with respect to the similarity variable. The light species ensemble is partitioned into quasi-steady and unsteady species. The reduced model is based on concepts consistent with those of Large Eddy Simulation (LES) in which functional forms are used to replace the small scales eliminated through filtering of the governing equations; in LES, these small scales are unimportant as far as the overwhelming part of dynamic energy is concerned. Here, the scales thought unimportant for recovering the thermodynamic energy are removed. The concept is tested by using tabular information from the LLNL skeletal mechanism in conjunction with CHEMKIN II utilized as surrogate ideal functions replacing the necessary functional forms. The test reveals that the similarity concept is indeed justified and that the combustion temperature is well predicted, but that the ignition time is over-predicted, a fact traced to neglecting a detailed description of the processes leading to the heavies chemical decomposition. To palliate this deficiency, functional modeling is incorporated into this conceptual reduction in addition to the modeling the evolution of the global constituent molar density, the enthalpy evolution of the heavies, the contribution to the reaction rate of the unsteady lights from other light species and from the heavies, the molar density evolution of oxygen and water, and the mole fractions of the quasisteady light species. The model is compact in that there are only nine species-related progress variables. Results are presented showing the performance of the model for predicting the temperature and species evolution. The model reproduces the ignition time over a wide range of equivalence ratios, initial pressure, and initial temperature.

Harstad, Kenneth G.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Predictability of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model

A study is presented to determine the limits on the predictability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. Following the classical methods developed for atmospheric predictability studies, the model used is one of the simplest that realistically reproduces many of the important features of the observed interannual variability of sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific Ocean when forced by observed wind stresses. As no reasonable analysis is available for all the fields, initial conditions for these prediction experiments were taken from a model control run in which the ocean model was forced by the observed surface winds. The atmospheric component of the coupled model is not capable of accurately simulating the large-scale components of the observed wind stress.

Goswami, B. N.↗
NASA NTRS2014

How Well Do Satellite AOD Observations Represent the Spatial and Temporal Variability of PM2.5 Concentration for the United States?

Due to their extensive spatial coverage, satellite Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) observations have been widely used to estimate and predict surface PM2.5 concentrations. While most previous studies have focused on establishing relationships between collocated, hourly or daily AOD and PM2.5 measurements, in this study, we instead focus on the comparison of the large-scale spatial and temporal variability between satellite AOD and PM2.5 using monthly mean measurements. A newly developed spectral analysis technique e Combined Maximum Covariance Analysis (CMCA) is applied to Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR), Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) AOD datasets and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) PM2.5 data, in order to extract and compare the dominant modes of variability. Results indicate that AOD and PM2.5 agree well in terms of interannual variability. An overall decrease is found in both AOD and PM2.5 across the United States, with the strongest signal over the eastern US. With respect to seasonality, good agreement is found only for Eastern US, while for Central and Western US, AOD and PM2.5 seasonal cycles are largely different or even reversed. These results are verified using Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) AOD observations and differences between satellite and AERONET are also examined. MODIS and MISR appear to have the best agreement with AERONET. In order to explain the disagreement between AOD and PM2.5 seasonality, we further use Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) extinction profile data to investigate the effect of two possible contributing factors, namely aerosol vertical distribution and cloud-free sampling. We find that seasonal changes in aerosol vertical distribution, due to the seasonally varying mixing height, is the primary cause for the AOD and PM2.5 seasonal discrepancy, in particular, the low AOD but high PM2.5 observed during the winter season for Central and Western US. In addition, cloud-free sampling by passive sensors also induces some bias in AOD seasonality, especially for the Western US, where the largest seasonal change in cloud fraction is found. The seasonal agreement between low level (below 500 m AGL), all sky CALIOP AOD and PM2.5 is significantly better than column AOD from MODIS, MISR, SeaWiFS and OMI. In particular, the correlation between low level, all sky AOD and PM2.5 seasonal cycles increases to above 0.7 for Central and Western US, as opposed to near zero or negative correlation for column, clear sky AOD. This result highlights the importance of accounting for the seasonally varying aerosol profiles and cloud-free sampling bias when using column AOD measurements to infer surface PM2.5 concentrations.

MODIS (radiometry)↗
NASA NTRS1992

A procedure for utilization of a damage-dependent constitutive model for laminated composites

Described here is the procedure for utilizing a damage constitutive model to predict progressive damage growth in laminated composites. In this model, the effects of the internal damage are represented by strain-like second order tensorial damage variables and enter the analysis through damage dependent ply level and laminate level constitutive equations. The growth of matrix cracks due to fatigue loading is predicted by an experimentally based damage evolutionary relationship. This model is incorporated into a computer code called FLAMSTR. This code is capable of predicting the constitutive response and matrix crack damage accumulation in fatigue loaded laminated composites. The structure and usage of FLAMSTR are presented along with sample input and output files to assist the code user. As an example problem, an analysis of crossply laminates subjected to two stage fatigue loading was conducted and the resulting damage accumulation and stress redistribution were examined to determine the effect of variations in fatigue load amplitude applied during the first stage of the load history. It was found that the model predicts a significant loading history effect on damage evolution.

Lo, David C.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Low velocity opposed-flow frame spread in a transport-controlled environment DARTFire

The overall objectives of the DARTFire project are to uncover the underlying physics and increase understanding of the mechanisms that cause flames to propagate over solid fuels against a low velocity of oxidizer flow in a low-gravity environment. Specific objectives are (1) to analyze experimentally observed flame shapes, measured gas-phase field variables, spread rates, radiative characteristics, and solid-phase regression rates for comparison with previously developed model prediction capability that will be continually extended, and (2) to investigate the transition from ignition to either flame propagation or extinction in order to determine the characteristics of those environments that lead to flame evolution. To meet the objectives, a series of sounding rocket experiments has been designed to exercise several of the dimensional, controllable variables that affect the flame spread process over PMMA in microgravity, i.e., the opposing flow velocity (1-20 cm/s), the external radiant flux directed to the fuel surface (0-2 W/cm(exp 2)), and the oxygen concentration of the environment (35-70%). Because radiative heat transfer is critical to these microgravity flame spread experiments, radiant heating is imposed, and radiant heat loss will be measured. These are the first attempts at such an experimental control and measurement in microgravity. Other firsts associated with the experiment are (1) the control of the low velocity, opposed flow, which is of the same order as diffusive velocities and Stefan flows; (2) state-of-the-art quantitative flame imaging for species-specific emissions (both infrared and ultraviolet) in addition to novel intensified array imaging to obtain a color image of the very dim, low-gravity flames.

West, Jeff↗
NASA NTRS1972

Mechanics of load transfer at the fiber/matrix interface

Methods for measuring and predicting interface bond stresses and interface bond strength are described. Geometric and material variables which influence interface stress and interface bond strength are identified. The dependence of composite fracture surface characteristics on bond strength is illustrated. Parameters for selecting constituents to yield specified interface bond strength are recommended.

Chamis, C. C.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Study of oxygen gas production phenomenon during stand and discharge in silver-zinc batteries

The effects of a number of cell process and performance variables upon the oxygen evolution rate of silver/silver oxide cathodes are studied to predict and measure the conditions which would result in the production of a minimum of oxygen. The following five tasks comprise the study: the design and fabrication of two pilot test cells to be used for electrode testing; the determination of the sensitivity and accuracy of the test cell; the determination of total volumes and rates of generation by cathodes of standard production procedures; the construction of a sequential test plan; and the construction of a series of positive formation cells in which formation process factors can be controlled.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1973

Report of conference evaluation committee

A general classification is made of a number of approaches used for the prediction of turbulent shear flows. The sensitivity of these prediction methods to parameter values and initial data are discussed in terms of variable density, pressure fluctuation, gradient diffusion, low Reynolds number, and influence of geometry.

Morkovin, M. V.↗
NASA NTRS1973

A preliminary sensitivity analysis of the coupled diffusion and chemistry model

The sensitivity of the coupled chemistry/diffusion model's outputs to a wide range of variation of the model's independent variables has been investigated. It is shown that the efficiency with which the now catalytic cycle destroys ambient O3 is extremely sensitive to the amount of NO emitted and to the relative rates of turbulent diffusion and chemical reactions. For representative conditions in the stratosphere, a tenfold variation of either the turbulence intensity or the reaction rate constant or the source strength can vary the efficiency from 1% to 50%. If the duration of Phase 3 is a significant fraction of the total residence time of the plume, then these efficiency variations can alter O3 depletion rates by more than a factor of two. These results, therefore, point toward those variables which must be accurately defined or measured if one is to adequately predict the effect of SST operations on the ambient inventory of O3 in the lower stratosphere.

Hilst, G. R.↗