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DOE OSTI2021

Accuracy, Bias, and Improvements in Mapping Crops and Cropland across the United States Using the USDA Cropland Data Layer

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Cropland Data Layer (CDL) is a 30 m resolution crop-specific land cover map produced annually to assess crops and cropland area across the conterminous United States. Despite its prominent use and value for monitoring agricultural land use/land cover (LULC), there remains substantial uncertainty surrounding the CDLs’ performance, particularly in applications measuring LULC at national scales, within aggregated classes, or changes across years. To fill this gap, we used state- and land cover class-specific accuracy statistics from the USDA from 2008 to 2016 to comprehensively characterize the performance of the CDL across space and time. We estimated nationwide area-weighted accuracies for the CDL for specific crops as well as for the aggregated classes of cropland and non-cropland. We also derived and reported new metrics of superclass accuracy and within-domain error rates, which help to quantify and differentiate the efficacy of mapping aggregated land use classes (e.g., cropland) among constituent subclasses (i.e., specific crops). We show that aggregate classes embody drastically higher accuracies, such that the CDL correctly identifies cropland from the user’s perspective 97% of the time or greater for all years since nationwide coverage began in 2008. We also quantified the mapping biases of specific crops throughout time and used these data to generate independent bias-adjusted crop area estimates, which may complement other USDA survey- and census-based crop statistics. Our overall findings demonstrate that the CDLs provide highly accurate annual measures of crops and cropland areas, and when used appropriately, are an indispensable tool for monitoring changes to agricultural landscapes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Subdiffraction Imaging of Carrier Dynamics in Halide Perovskite Semiconductors: Effects of Passivation, Morphology, and Ion Motion

In this article, we spatially resolve photocarrier dynamics in halide perovskites using time-resolved electrostatic force microscopy (trEFM) to map surface potential equilibration during photoexcitation. We present a unified interpretation of trEFM, which measures the evolution of the surface potential in response to photoexcitation. We show that trEFM measurements correlate with surface recombination velocity and carrier lifetimes, validated with time-resolved photoluminescence imaging. We further validate the interpretation of trEFM through wavelength- and intensity-dependent measurements and with drift-diffusion simulations. We compare several passivation agents, including (3-aminopropyl)trimethoxysilane (APTMS), [3-(2-aminoethylamino)propyl]trimethoxysilane (AEAPTMS), and phenethylammonium iodide (PEAI). The results reveal heterogeneity in surface potential equilibration times that correlates with perovskite film morphology and nanoscale variations in recombination dynamics following surface passivation. Not only do our results highlight the potential for further improvement of passivation strategies, but also the necessity of high spatial and temporal resolution methods, like trEFM, to evaluate next-generation semiconductors.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

High-resolution neutron time-of-flight measurements for light water at the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS), Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Series of light water inelastic neutron scattering experiments have been made at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) covering temperatures ranging from 295 K to 600 K and pressures of 1 bar and 150 bar. The temperatures and pressures ranges correspond to that of pressurized light water reactors. The inelastic scattering measurements will help the development of light water thermal scattering kernels, also known as S (α,β) thermal scattering law (TSL), in a consistent fashion given the amount and the quality of the measured data. Light water thermal scattering evaluations available in existing nuclear data libraries have certain limitations and pitfalls. This paper introduces the state of the art of the light water thermal scattering cross-section data not only for room temperature but as well as for reactor operating temperatures, i.e. 550 - 600 K. During the past few years there has been a renewed interest in re-investigating the existing TSL models and utilize the recent experimental data or perform molecular dynamics simulations. It should be pointed out that no single TSL evaluation is based entirely on experimental data and one has to rely on TSL models or a combination of both. New TOF measurement of light water at the SNS, with a detailed description of the experimental setup, measurement conditions, and the associated foreseen results is presented in this paper. The analysis of the experimental data would help in validating the existing approach based on old experimental data or based on molecular dynamic simulations using classical water models, knowledge of which is very important to generate TSL libraries at reactor operating conditions.

Leal, Luiz C.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Fine-scale landscape characteristics, vegetation composition, and snowmelt timing control phenological heterogeneity across low-Arctic tundra landscapes in Western Alaska

The Arctic is warming at over twice the rate of the rest of the Earth, resulting in significant changes in vegetation seasonality that regulates annual carbon, water, and energy fluxes. However, a crucial knowledge gap exists regarding the intricate interplay among climate, permafrost, and vegetation that generates high phenology variability across extensive tundra landscapes. This oversight has led to significant discrepancies in phenological patterns observed across warming experiments, long-term ecological observations, and satellite and modeling studies, undermining our ability to understand and forecast plant responses to climate change in the Arctic. To address this problem, we assessed plant phenology across three low-Arctic tundra landscapes on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, using a combination of in-situ phenocam observations and high-resolution PlanetScope CubeSat data. We examined the patterns and drivers of phenological diversity across the landscape by (1) quantifying phenological diversity among dominant plant function types (PFTs) and (2) modeling the interrelations between plant phenology and fine-scale landscape features, such as topography, snowmelt, and vegetation. Our findings reveal that both spring and fall phenology varied significantly across Arctic PFTs, accounting for about 25%–44% and 34%–59% of the landscape-scale variation in the start of spring [SOS] and start of fall [SOF], respectively. Deciduous tall shrubs (e.g. alder and willow) had a later SOS (~7 d behind the mean of other PFTs), but completed leaf expansion (within 2 weeks) considerably faster compared to other PFTs. We modeled the landscape-scale variation in SOS and SOF using Random Forest, which showed that plant phenology can be accurately captured by a suite of variables related to vegetation composition, topographic characteristics, and snowmelt timing (variance explained: 53%–68% for SOS and 59%–82% for SOF). Notably, snowmelt timing was a crucial determinant of SOS, a factor often neglected in most spring phenology models. Our study highlights the impact of fine-scale vegetation composition, snow seasonality, and landscape features on tundra phenological heterogeneity. Improved understanding of such considerable intra-site phenological variability and associated proximate controls across extensive Arctic landscapes offers critical insights for representation of tundra phenology in process models and associated impact assessments with climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

SREMI: Super-resolution electromagnetic imaging with single-channel ground-penetrating radar

High-resolution near-surface imaging has important applications in civil engineering, infrastructure inspection, military threat detection, geological characterization, and lunar and planetary exploration. Zero-offset, singlechannel ground penetrating radar (GPR) imaging is an established technique for near-surface target imaging and sensing but often suffers from low spatial resolution and imaging artifacts, especially of deep structures. In response, we formulate the GPR imaging as a dual-sparsity optimization problem, and develop a super-resolution electromagnetic imaging method based on a fast iterative shrinkage-thresholding algorithm. We develop our GPR imaging method in the framework of electromagnetic exploding-reflectors simulation theory, therefore the imaging method is computationally efficient. In this work, we demonstrate through synthetic and field data examples that our method can produce sharper, more reliable images with fewer artifacts compared with single-pass reverse-time migration GPR method, thus leading to improved near-surface interpretation and object identification.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Direct comparison of wire, foil, and hybrid X-pinches on a 200 kA, 150 ns current driver

Wire X-pinches (WXPs) have been studied comprehensively as fast (~1 ns pulse width), small (~1 μm) x-ray sources, created by twisting two or more fine wires into an “X” to produce a localized region of extreme magnetic pressure at the cross-point. Recently, two alternatives to the traditional WXP have arisen: the hybrid X-pinch (HXP), composed of two conical electrodes bridged by a thin wire or capillary, and the laser-cut foil X-pinch (LCXP), cut from a thin foil using a laser. We present a comparison of copper wire, hybrid, and laser-cut foil X-pinches on a single experimental platform: UC San Diego’s ~200 kA, 150 ns rise time GenASIS driver. All configurations produced 1–2 ns pulse width, ≤5 μm soft x-ray (Cu L-shell, ~1 keV) sources (resolutions diagnostically limited) with comparable fluxes. WXP results varied with linear mass and wire count, but consistently showed separate pinch and electron-beam-driven sources. LCXPs produced the brightest (~1 MW), smallest (≤5 μm) Cu K-shell sources, and spectroscopic data showed both H-like Cu K α lines indicative of source temperatures ≥2 keV, and cold K α (~8050 eV) characteristic of electron beam generated sources, which were not separately resolved on other diagnostics (within 1–2 ns and ≤200 μm). HXPs produced minimal K-shell emission and reliably single, bright, and small L-shell sources after modifications to shape the early current pulse through them. Benefits and drawbacks for each configuration are discussed to provide potential X-pinch users with the information required to choose the configuration best suited to their needs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Molecular-Resolution Electron Imaging of Defects and Dynamics at the Ice-Water Interface

Water crystallization into hexagonal ice (type I h ) is one of the most critical processes relevant to the Earth’s environment and human activities. However, despite recent breakthroughs in imaging non-equilibrium condensed ice structures, the ice-water interface has never been imaged at a molecular resolution. This is primarily due to the low stability of the hydrogen bonds in ice under high-resolution microscopy conditions and a lack of methods to prepare compatible samples. Here, this presentation describes the first molecular-resolution imaging of ice crystallized from liquid water and the ice-water interface using high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM). By encapsulating deionized (DI) water between two amorphous carbon (a-C) TEM grids and subsequently freezing it with liquid N 2 on a cryo sample stage, we generated two types of ice: non-equilibrium, condensed ice from the atmosphere and encapsulated ice from the DI water (Fig. 1A). Condensed ice usually shows irregular, spherulitic shapes (Fig. 1B). Selected area electron diffraction (SAED) shows that they are a mixture of cubic and hexagonal crystals (Fig. 1C). On the contrary, encapsulated ice forms thin films that contain large-area single-crystalline regions of hexagonal ice oriented along the [0001] zone axis (Fig. 1D). Differential electron energy-loss spectroscopy (EELS) confirmed the high purity of the encapsulated ice free from organic contaminations that are common in other encapsulation methods for HRTEM such as graphene liquid cells. These single-crystalline areas are robust under the electron beam up to ~100 e/Å 2 s. Aberration-corrected HRTEM imaging in these areas achieved a line resolution of ~1.3 Å (Fig. 1E and F). This platform allows us to study near-equilibrium ice structures and dynamics at an unprecedented spatial resolution (Fig. 2). For example, we discovered subdomain-rich regions near the defective crystal edges despite the structure appearing single-crystalline according to diffraction criteria. These subdomains connect via low-angle grain boundaries with flat energy landscapes as a function of tilt angles (according to simulations), showing the high tolerance of ice to defect structures. When we tuned the sample temperature and electron flux rate, we observed radiolysis-controlled bubble generation and dissolution in ice single crystals near a steady state of bubble dynamics. Furthermore, rich beam-induced melting and recrystallization dynamics were observed at the ice-water interface with lattice resolution. These data represent the first observation of the ice-water phase transformation at the sub-nanometer level. In summary, the methods developed in this work enabled molecular-resolution observations of ice and the ice-water interface and shed light on the microstructures and phase transformation pathways. Finer control on the temperature, electron irradiation profile, and imaging detector could eventually lead to real-time observation of ice nucleation in water and address long-standing questions in the nucleation pathways.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

CHANG-ES XXV: H i imaging of nearby edge-on galaxies – Data Release 4

ABSTRACT We present the ${\rm H}\, {\small I}$ distribution of galaxies from the Continuum Haloes in Nearby Galaxies – an EVLA Survey (CHANG-ES). Though the observational mode was not optimized for detecting ${\rm H}\, {\small I}$, we successfully produce ${\rm H}\, {\small I}$ cubes for 19 galaxies. The moment-0 maps from this work are available on CHANG-ES data release website (i.e. https://www.queensu.ca/changes). Our sample is dominated by star-forming, ${\rm H}\, {\small I}$-rich galaxies at distances from 6.27 to 34.1 Mpc. ${\rm H}\, {\small I}$ interferometric images on two of these galaxies (NGC 5792 and UGC 10288) are presented here for the first time, while 12 of our remaining sample galaxies now have better ${\rm H}\, {\small I}$ spatial resolutions and/or sensitivities of intensity maps than those in existing publications. We characterize the average scale heights of the ${\rm H}\, {\small I}$ distributions for a subset of most inclined galaxies (inclination > 80 deg), and compare them to the radio continuum intensity scale heights, which have been derived in a similar way. The two types of scale heights are well correlated, with similar dependence on disc radial extension and star formation rate surface density but different dependence on mass surface density. This result indicates that the vertical distribution of the two components may be governed by similar fundamental physics but with subtle differences.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Connecting Femtosecond Transient Absorption Microscopy with Spatially Coregistered Time Averaged Optical Imaging Modalities

Multimodal all-optical imaging involving coregistered femtosecond transient absorption microscopy (TAM), time-integrated photoluminescence (PL), and steady-state modalities such as confocal reflectance and transmission offers an appealing approach to gain a comprehensive understanding of complex electronic excited-state phenomena in spatially heterogeneous systems. A unique combination of these modalities allows us to unravel not only the competing electronic excited-state dynamical processes but also the underlying morphological information with simultaneous high temporal and spatial resolution. However, correlating the various images obtained from time-resolved and time-independent modalities is generally nontrivial and particularly challenging when the electronic dynamics under study evolve in both time and space. Here, we demonstrate a new approach for rationally correlating time-resolved microscopy with coregistered time-integrated or steady-state modalities. Specifically, our approach involves an extended global lifetime analysis of the time-resolved microscopic data set to separate distinct dynamical processes taking place on commensurate time scales, and the resulting decay-associated amplitude maps (DAAMs) were applied to explore correlations with the images acquired using time-independent modalities. The feasibility of our approach was validated through analyzing a multimodal data set acquired from a thin film of chloride-containing mixed lead halide perovskites (CH 3 NH 3 PbI 3–x Cl x ) using femtosecond transient absorption, time-integrated PL, and confocal reflectance microscopies. Analysis of the results obtained enable us to gain new insight into the complex ultrafast relaxation dynamics in this highly heterogeneous system.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Planck intermediate results

We present the NPIPE processing pipeline, which produces calibrated frequency maps in temperature and polarization from data from the Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) and High Frequency Instrument (HFI) using high-performance computers. NPIPE represents a natural evolution of previous Planck analysis efforts, and combines some of the most powerful features of the separate LFI and HFI analysis pipelines. For example, following the LFI 2018 processing procedure, NPIPE uses foreground polarization priors during the calibration stage in order to break scanning-induced degeneracies. Similarly, NPIPE employs the HFI 2018 time-domain processing methodology to correct for bandpass mismatch at all frequencies. In addition, NPIPE introduces several improvements, including, but not limited to: inclusion of the 8% of data collected during repointing manoeuvres; smoothing of the LFI reference load data streams; in-flight estimation of detector polarization parameters; and construction of maximally independent detector-set split maps. For component-separation purposes, important improvements include: maps that retain the CMB Solar dipole, allowing for high-precision relative calibration in higher-level analyses; well-defined single-detector maps, allowing for robust CO extraction; and HFI temperature maps between 217 and 857 GHz that are binned into 0'.9 pixels (Nside = 4096), ensuring that the full angular information in the data is represented in the maps even at the highest Planck resolutions. The net effect of these improvements is lower levels of noise and systematics in both frequency and component maps at essentially all angular scales, as well as notably improved internal consistency between the various frequency channels. Based on the NPIPE maps, we present the first estimate of the Solar dipole determined through component separation across all nine Planck frequencies. The amplitude is (3366.6 ± 2.7) μK, consistent with, albeit slightly higher than, earlier estimates. From the large-scale polarization data, we derive an updated estimate of the optical depth of reionization of τ = 0.051 ± 0.006, which appears robust with respect to data and sky cuts. There are 600 complete signal, noise and systematics simulations of the full-frequency and detector-set maps. As a Planck first, these simulations include full time-domain processing of the beam-convolved CMB anisotropies. The release of NPIPE maps and simulations is accompanied with a complete suite of raw and processed time-ordered data and the software, scripts, auxiliary data, and parameter files needed to improve further on the analysis and to run matching simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning for precise hit position reconstruction in Resistive Silicon Detectors

RSDs are LGAD silicon sensors with 100% fill factor, based on the principle of AC-coupled resistive read-out. Signal sharing and internal charge multiplication are the RSD key features to achieve picosecond-level time resolution and micron-level spatial resolution, thus making these sensors promising candidates as 4D-trackers for future experiments. This paper describes the use of a neural network to reconstruct the hit position of ionizing particles, an approach that can boost the performance of the RSD with respect to analytical models. The neural network has been trained in the laboratory and then validated on test beam data. The device-under-test in this work is a 450 μm-pitch matrix from the FBK RSD2 production, which achieved a resolution of about 65 μm at the DESY Test Beam Facility, a 50% improvement compared to a simple analytical reconstruction method, and a factor two better than the resolution of a standard pixel sensor of equal pitch size with binary read-out. The test beam result is compatible with the laboratory ones obtained during the neural network training, confirming the ability of the machine learning model to provide accurate predictions even in environments very different from the training one. Prospects for future improvements are also discussed.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

SBND In 10 Minutes

The Short-Baseline Near Detector (SBND) is one of three Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) neutrino detectors positioned along the axis of the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) at Fermilab, as part of the Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Program. The detector is currently being commissioned and is expected to take neutrino data this year. SBND is characterized by superb imaging capabilities and will record over a million neutrino interactions per year. Thanks to its unique combination of measurement resolution and statistics, SBND will carry out a rich program of neutrino interaction measurements and novel searches for physics beyond the Standard Model (BSM). It will enable the potential of the overall SBN sterile neutrino program by performing a precise characterization of the unoscillated event rate, and constraining BNB flux and neutrino-argon cross-section systematic uncertainties. In this talk, the physics reach, current status, and future prospects of SBND are discussed.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

The Double-edged Sword of Data-driven Super-Resolution: Adversarial Super-resolution Models

Data-driven super-resolution (SR) methods are often integrated into imaging pipelines as preprocessing steps to improve downstream tasks such as classification and detection. However, these SR models introduce a previously unexplored attack surface into imaging pipelines. In this paper, we present AdvSR, a framework demonstrating that adversarial behavior can be embedded directly into SR model weights during training, requiring no access to inputs at inference time. Unlike prior attacks that perturb inputs or rely on backdoor triggers, AdvSR operates entirely at the model level. By jointly optimizing for reconstruction quality and targeted adversarial outcomes, AdvSR produces models that appear benign under standard image quality metrics while inducing downstream misclassification. We evaluate AdvSR on three SR architectures (SRCNN, EDSR, SwinIR) paired with a YOLOv11 classifier and demonstrate that AdvSR models can achieve high attack success rates with minimal quality degradation. These findings highlight a new model-level threat for imaging pipelines, with implications for how practitioners source and validate models in safety-critical applications.

Sullivan, Haley [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000274069217)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Real-time Anomaly Detection for Liquid Argon Time Projection Chambers

We present a real-time anomaly detection framework for liquid argon time projection chambers (LArTPCs), targeting applications in particle physics experiments such as the Short Baseline Near Detector (SBND) or the future Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE). These experiments employ detectors that generate and stream high-resolution but sparse images of neutrino and other particle interactions. Our approach utilizes anomaly detection with autoencoders, compressed through knowledge distillation (KD), to enable the detection of anomalous signals in the data through efficient inference on resource-constrained hardware. The framework is targeted for deployment on computing platforms equipped with field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), GPUs, or CPUs, allowing low-latency selection of relevant activity directly from the raw detector data stream. We demonstrate that our approach is suitable for the detection and localization of anomalously "high-multiplicity" activity, and outline promising applications for LArTPC online data filtering and triggering.

FOS: Physical sciences↗

DOE OSTI2025

A New Measurement of the Neutron Electric Form Factor with the Super Bigbite Spectrometer Apparatus

Protons and neutrons, collectively known as nucleons, make up the nuclei at the core of atoms which form our world. The nucleon has been under intensive study for over 100 years, and yet we still do not fully understand the internal dynamics which govern properties like its spin or its mass-which contributes to almost all of the visible mass in the universe. These dynamics are governed by quantum chromodynamics(QCD), the predictions of which are experimentally tested at high energy accelerator facilities such as Jefferson Lab. TheGEN-II experiment (E12-09-016) is one such experiment. GEN-II is part of the Super Bigbite Spectrometer (SBS) experimental form factor pro gramme taking place in Hall A at Jefferson Lab, which aims to make precision measurements of the nucleon electromagnetic form factors(EMFFs)at record high values of squared four momentum transfer ¿2. EMFFs describe the electric and magnetic moment distributions within the nucleon. They can be measured through elastic electron scattering off the nucleon, and describe the recoil response of the target nucleon at a given energy scale. GEN-II is a double polarized semi-exclusive beam target asymmetry (BTA) experiment, seeking to measure the electric form factor of the neutron,¿¿ ¿,at three new values of squared four-momentum transfer¿2 =2.92,6.74and9.82GeV². The latter two points being at record high ¿2. The form factor is determined through measuring the BTA of quasielliptical scattering of a neutron from a polarized nuclear target. The experiment utilized the CEBAF accelerator to produce longitudinally polarized electrons up to ~85% polarization, which were scattered off neutrons within a novel polarized helium-3 (³He) target. This new polarized ³He target was employed by building on the technology of its precursors which existed in similar preceding experiments. This target was designed to operate at the high luminosities typical of Hall A, and reached a record breaking combination of polarization and beam intensity known as figure of merit, three times larger than those predecessors. The SBS collaboration designed and constructed two brand new high acceptance spectrometers for these experiments, an electron arm named Bigbite (BB) and a hadron arm named Super Bigbite. Both spectrometers featured a large acceptance EM dipole magnet, and complementary detector systems. The electron arm contained gaseous electronmultipliers(GEMs) which were used for high precision tracking of the scattered electrons, a heavy gas cherenkov (GRINCH) which was used for PID between electrons and pions, a plastic i ii scintillator timing hodoscope to provide high resolution timing of the start of events, and a pair of EM calorimeters (BBCal) which provided energy measurements of detected particles, and provided the experimental trigger. The hadron arm also contained a system of GEMs which will be utilized for future SBS experiments, and a hadron calorimeter designed to provide position, timing and energy measurements of the recoiling nucleon. The calibration of all detector subsystems, beam and target data is discussed, with a focus on novel timing calibrations to the hodoscope and hadron calorimeter. An analysis of selecting quasielliptical events and suppressing background contributions from a number of sources which contaminate the final event sample is given. The largest irreducible backgrounds are found to be from misidentified protons, timing accidentals and inelastic events. The physical asymmetry is measured and used to extract a value for the form factor ratio ¿¿ ¿/¿¿ ¿. High precision ¿2 data for ¿¿ ¿ is used to then extract ¿¿ ¿. This work finds at ¿2 = 2.92 GeV2 that ¿¿ ¿ = 0.0129+0.0019 -0.0020. This result is in statistical agreement with existing fits to world data, and predictions from the constituent quark model and Dyson–Schwinger equations, in this region of ¿2.

Penman, Gary [Univ. of Glasgow, Scotland (United K↗

DOE OSTI2022

Third international challenge to model the medium- to long-range transport of radioxenon to four Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty monitoring stations

In 2015 and 2016, atmospheric transport modeling challenges were conducted in the context of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) verification, however, with a more limited scope with respect to emission inventories, simulation period and number of relevant samples (i.e., those above the Minimum Detectable Concentration (MDC)) involved. Therefore, a more comprehensive atmospheric transport modeling challenge was organized in 2019. Stack release data of Xe-133 were provided by the Institut National des Radioéléments/IRE (Belgium) and the Canadian Nuclear Laboratories/CNL (Canada) and accounted for in the simulations over a three (mandatory) or six (optional) months period. Best estimate emissions of additional facilities (radiopharmaceutical production and nuclear research facilities, commercial reactors or relevant research reactors) of the Northern Hemisphere were included as well. Model results were compared with observed atmospheric activity concentrations at four International Monitoring System (IMS) stations located in Europe and North America with overall considerable influence of IRE and/or CNL emissions for evaluation of the participants’ runs. Participants were prompted to work with controlled and harmonized model set-ups to make runs more comparable, but also to increase diversity. It was found that using the stack emissions of IRE and CNL with daily resolution does not lead to better results than disaggregating annual emissions of these two facilities taken from the literature if an overall score for all stations covering all valid observed samples is considered. A moderate benefit of roughly 10% is visible in statistical scores for samples influenced by IRE and/or CNL to at least 50% and there can be considerable benefit for individual samples. Effects of transport errors, not properly characterized remaining emitters and long IMS sampling times (12–24 h) undoubtedly are in contrast to and reduce the benefit of high-quality IRE and CNL stack data. Complementary best estimates for remaining emitters push the scores up by 18% compared to just considering IRE and CNL emissions alone. Despite the efforts undertaken the full multi-model ensemble built is highly redundant. An ensemble based on a few arbitrary runs is sufficient to model the Xe-133 background at the stations investigated. The effective ensemble size is below five. An optimized ensemble at each station has on average slightly higher skill compared to the full ensemble. However, the improvement (maximum of 20% and minimum of 3% in RMSE) in skill is likely being too small for being exploited for an independent period.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hierarchical semi-Markov models with duration-aware dynamics for activity sequences

Residential electricity demand at granular scales is driven by what people do and for how long. Accurately forecasting this demand for applications like microgrid management and demand response therefore requires generative models for activities that can produce realistic daily activity sequences, capturing both the timing and duration of human behavior. This paper develops a generative model of human activity sequences using nationally representative time-use diaries at a 10-min resolution. We use this model to quantify which demographic factors are most critical for improving predictive performance. We propose a hierarchical semi-Markov framework that addresses two key modeling challenges. First, a time-inhomogeneous Markov router learns the patterns of “which activity comes next.” Second, a semi-Markov hazard component explicitly models activity durations, capturing “how long” activities realistically last. To ensure statistical stability when data are sparse, the model pools information across related demographic groups and time blocks. The entire framework is trained and evaluated using survey design weights to ensure our findings are representative of the U.S. population. On a held-out test set, we demonstrate that explicitly modeling durations with the hazard component provides a substantial and statistically significant improvement over purely Markovian models. Furthermore, our analysis reveals a clear hierarchy of demographic factors: Sex, Day-Type, and Household Size provide the largest predictive gains, while Region and Season, though important for energy calculations, contribute little to predicting the activity sequence itself. The result is an interpretable and robust generator of synthetic activity traces, providing a high-fidelity foundation for downstream energy systems modeling.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Microstructural features and deuterium diffusion in lithium penta-aluminate pellets under He + and D + ion irradiation

Lithium (Li) penta-aluminate (LiAl 5 O 8 ) is investigated as a potential tritium (T) breeding material, with a focus on microstructural response to ion irradiation and deuterium (D) diffusion behavior. Under high-fluence ion irradiation (2 x 10 17 (He + +D + )/cm 2 ) at 773 K, LiAl 5 O 8 exhibits significant disorder on the Li sublattice, as revealed by atomic-resolution scanning transmission electron microscopy, while the Al and O sublattices remain stable, demonstrating strong resistance to structural amorphization. Irradiation induces the formation of platelet-shaped antiphase boundaries (APBs), which may serve as effective D trapping sites. Atom probe tomography suggests the presence of 6 LiD clusters in the mass spectra, though definite conclusions regarding APB composition are hindered by signal overlap and limited data statistics. Time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry reveals that D retention approaches to saturation at 3 x 10 17 (He + +D + )/cm 2 . Isothermal and isochronal annealing studies determine an average diffusivity of 1.6 x 10 -13 at 773 K and an effective activation energy of 0.8 ± 0.1 eV for D migration. Compared to γ-LiAlO 2 , LiAl 5 O 8 demonstrates superior irradiation resistance, minimal Li loss, and enhanced D retention, underscoring its potential as a durable breeder material for T production. In conclusion, these findings provide key insights into the microstructural evolution, defect dynamics, and D retention mechanisms in LiAl 5 O 8 under reactor-relevant conditions.

42 ENGINEERING↗