Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “surrogates”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 919 records · Page 51
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Incorporating corrosion design constraints in desalination process optimization: A case study in mechanical vapor compression

Corrosion is an expensive and complex challenge for desalination, yet current design approaches do not explicitly account for corrosion mechanisms in process modeling and technoeconomic analysis. Here, to address this gap, we present a workflow for incorporating corrosion design constraints directly into desalination process optimization models. We develop surrogate models for general and localized corrosion metrics as functions of temperature, pH, salinity, dissolved oxygen, and material using data from OLI Systems’ Corrosion Analyzer. We then integrate these surrogates as corrosion design constraints in a cost-optimization MVC model that minimizes the levelized cost of water (LCOW). For a case study of mechanical vapor compression (MVC) treating seawater across a range of recoveries, we find dissolved oxygen (DO) is the dominant driver of localized corrosion, and thus of cost-optimal material choice and operating conditions. Reducing the DO from 8 mg/L to 0.5 mg/L reduces the LCOW by 15-35%, informing the breakeven costs for implementing DO removal or selecting highly corrosion-resistant alloys. This framework is broadly applicable across corrosion types, materials, and components and enables desalination process design that minimizes capital costs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Shadow masks predictions in SPARC tokamak plasma-facing components using HEAT code and machine learning methods

Here, this work uses machine learning (ML) to complement HEAT (Heat flux Engineering Analysis Toolkit) by developing 3-D footprint surrogate models for fast and accurate heat load calculations in the divertor of the SPARC tokamak. The focus is on shadowed regions, or magnetic shadows, caused by the 3-D geometry of plasma-facing components (PFCs). ML classifiers are employed to create a surrogate model for HEAT generated shadow masks, predicting these shadow masks and divertor heat flux profiles based on a diverse range of equilibria and only the plasma current, safety factor(q95) at the edge, and magnetic flux angles as input parameters. The ultimate goal is to integrate the model for real-time control and future operational decisions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A deep learning-accelerated data assimilation and forecasting workflow for commercial-scale geologic carbon storage

Fast assimilation of monitoring data to update forecasts of pressure buildup and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) plume migration under geologic uncertainties is a challenging problem in geologic carbon storage. The high computational cost of data assimilation with a high-dimensional parameter space impedes fast decision-making for commercial-scale reservoir management. We propose to leverage physical understandings of porous medium flow behavior with deep learning techniques to develop a fast data assimilation-reservoir response forecasting workflow. Applying an Ensemble Smoother Multiple Data Assimilation (ES-MDA) framework, the workflow updates geologic properties and predicts reservoir performance with quantified uncertainty from pressure history and CO 2 plumes interpreted through seismic inversion. As the most computationally expensive component in such a workflow is reservoir simulation, we developed surrogate models to predict dynamic pressure and CO 2 plume extents under multi-well injection. The surrogate models employ deep convolutional neural networks, specifically, a wide residual network and a residual U-Net. The workflow is validated against a flat threedimensional reservoir model representative of a clastic shelf depositional environment. Intelligent treatments are applied to bridge between quantities in a true-3D reservoir model and those in a single-layer reservoir model. The workflow can complete history matching and reservoir forecasting with uncertainty quantification in less than one hour on a mainstream personal workstation.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

A survey of unsupervised learning methods for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification in black-box-type problems

Constructing surrogate models for uncertainty quantification (UQ) on complex partial differential equations (PDEs) having inherently high-dimensional O(10 n ), n ≥ 2, stochastic inputs (e.g., forcing terms, boundary conditions, initial conditions) poses tremendous challenges. The “curse of dimensionality” can be addressed with suitable unsupervised learning techniques used as a pre-processing tool to encode inputs onto lower-dimensional subspaces while retaining its structural information and meaningful properties. In this work, we review and investigate thirteen dimension reduction methods including linear and nonlinear, spectral, blind source separation, convex and non-convex methods and utilize the resulting embeddings to construct a mapping to quantities of interest via polynomial chaos expansions (PCE). Here, we refer to the general proposed approach as manifold PCE (m-PCE), where manifold corresponds to the latent space resulting from any of the studied dimension reduction methods. To investigate the capabilities and limitations of these methods we conduct numerical tests for three physics-based systems (treated as black-boxes) having high-dimensional stochastic inputs of varying complexity modeled as both Gaussian and non-Gaussian random fields to investigate the effect of the intrinsic dimensionality of input data. We demonstrate both the advantages and limitations of the unsupervised learning methods and we conclude that a suitable m-PCE model provides a cost-effective approach compared to alternative algorithms proposed in the literature, including recently proposed expensive deep neural network-based surrogates and can be readily applied for high-dimensional UQ in stochastic PDEs.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-fidelity Fourier neural operator for fast modeling of large-scale geological carbon storage

Deep learning-based surrogate models have been widely applied in geological carbon storage (GCS) problems to accelerate the prediction of reservoir pressure and CO2 plume migration. Large amounts of data from physics-based numerical simulators are required to train a model to accurately predict the complex physical behaviors associated with this process. In practice, the available training data are always limited in large-scale 3D problems due to the high computational cost. Therefore, we propose to use a multi-fidelity Fourier neural operator (FNO) to solve large-scale GCS problems with more affordable multi-fidelity training datasets. FNO has a desirable grid-invariant property, which simplifies the transfer learning procedure between datasets with different discretization. Here, we first test the model efficacy on a GCS reservoir model being discretized into 110 k grid cells. The multi-fidelity model can predict with accuracy comparable to a high-fidelity model trained with the same amount of high-fidelity data with 81% less data generation costs. We further test the generalizability of the multi-fidelity model on a same reservoir model with a finer discretization of 1 million grid cells. This case was made more challenging by employing high-fidelity and low-fidelity datasets generated by different geostatistical models and reservoir simulators. We observe that the multi-fidelity FNO model can predict pressure fields with reasonable accuracy even when the high-fidelity data are extremely limited. The findings of this study can help for better understanding of the transferability of multi-fidelity deep learning surrogate models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A quantitative risk assessment framework for fault reactivation in underground hydrogen storage: Coupled simulation and deep learning approach

Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) is emerging as a critical solution for large-scale energy storage. However, like all subsurface fluid injection activities, UHS poses the risk of injection-induced fault reactivation. Accurate risk assessment is essential to ensuring the safety and efficiency of UHS operations. This study presents the development of deep-learning surrogate models for fault reactivation prediction in UHS, trained on a comprehensive database of fully coupled fluid flow-geomechanics simulations. Our findings reveal that analytical models often yield unreliable estimates, with errors up to 54% in the allowable injection pressure, potentially leading to a 40% reduction in UHS operational capacity. The developed surrogate models were incorporated into a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) framework, enabling probabilistic evaluation of fault reactivation risk while accounting for uncertainties in the input variables. Site-specific features, such as horizontal stress gradients, fault’s dip and strike angles, and operational parameters like bottom-hole injection pressure and well-fault distance, were identified as the primary drivers of fault reactivation across various stress regimes. Whereas other hydraulic, geological, and poroelastic reservoir properties were found to have a secondary impact. Notably, we observed that the risk of fault reactivation for a critically oriented fault with a static friction coefficient greater than 0.55 remains below 10% in a normal faulting stress regime. However, the risk significantly increases as the stress regime transitions from normal to strike-slip and ultimately to reverse faulting conditions. These findings underscore the importance of rigorous site characterization and comprehensive QRA evaluations to optimize UHS performance and minimize geomechanical risks.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven chaos indicator for nonlinear dynamics and applications on storage ring lattice design

A data-driven chaos indicator concept is introduced to characterize the degree of chaos for nonlinear dynamical systems. The indicator is represented by the prediction accuracy of surrogate models established purely from data. It provides a metric for the predictability of nonlinear motions in a given system. When using the indicator to implement a tune-scan for a quadratic Hénon map, the main resonances and their asymmetric stop-band widths can be identified. When applied to particle transportation in a storage ring, as particle motion becomes more chaotic, its surrogate model prediction accuracy decreases correspondingly. So, the prediction accuracy, acting as a chaos indicator, can be used directly as the objective for nonlinear beam dynamics optimization. This method provides a different perspective on nonlinear beam dynamics and an efficient method for nonlinear lattice optimization. Applications in dynamic aperture optimization are demonstrated as real world examples.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multiobjective optimization of nuclear microreactor reactivity control system operation with swarm and evolutionary algorithms

To improve the marketability of novel microreactor designs, there is a need for automated and optimal control of these reactors. This paper presents a methodology for performing multiobjective optimization of control drum operation for a microreactor under normal and off-nominal conditions. Here, two different case studies are used where the control drum configuration is optimized for the reactor to be critical with some desired power distribution that would satisfy peaking limits. A surrogate model for power distribution is developed based on a feedforward neural network. The process for determining weights for scalarization of the multiobjective optimization problem is also detailed. Six optimization algorithms: evolutionary strategies, differential evolution, grey wolf optimization, Harris hawks optimization, moth flame optimization and particle swarm optimization, are all applied to these cases and the results analyzed. Although all these algorithms will demonstrate optima-seeking behavior, for real-time control it is necessary to identify the best algorithm to efficiently provide reasonable optima without operator interference. The moth flame optimization algorithm was found to perform particularly well on both cases. Overall, it was found that the algorithms capable of supplying the best optima were also the most consistent. Finally, the found optima were verified with the original model used to train surrogates.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reduced-order autodifferentiable ensemble Kalman filters

This paper introduces a computational framework to reconstruct and forecast a partially observed state that evolves according to an unknown or expensive-to-simulate dynamical system. Our reduced-order autodifferentiable ensemble Kalman filters (ROAD-EnKFs) learn a latent low-dimensional surrogate model for the dynamics and a decoder that maps from the latent space to the state space. The learned dynamics and decoder are then used within an EnKF to reconstruct and forecast the state. Numerical experiments show that if the state dynamics exhibit a hidden low-dimensional structure, ROAD-EnKFs achieve higher accuracy at lower computational cost compared to existing methods. If such structure is not expressed in the latent state dynamics, ROAD-EnKFs achieve similar accuracy at lower cost, making them a promising approach for surrogate state reconstruction and forecasting.

Mathematics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning-enhanced model-based scenario optimization for DIII-D

Abstract Scenario development in tokamaks is an open area of investigation that can be approached in a variety of different ways. Experimental trial and error has been the traditional method, but this required a massive amount of experimental time and resources. As high fidelity predictive models have become available, offline development and testing of proposed scenarios has become an option to reduce the required experimental resources. The use of predictive models also offers the possibility of using a numerical optimization process to find the controllable inputs that most closely achieve the desired plasma state. However, this type of optimization can require as many as hundreds or thousands of predictive simulation cases to converge to a solution; many of the commonly used high fidelity models have high computational burdens, so it is only reasonable to run a handful of predictive simulations. In order to make use of numerical optimization approaches, a compromise needs to be found between model fidelity and computational burden. This compromise can be achieved using neural networks surrogates of high fidelity models that retain nearly the same level of accuracy as the models they are trained to replicate while reducing the computation time by orders of magnitude. In this work, a model-based numerical optimization tool for scenario development is described. The predictive model used by the optimizer includes neural network surrogate models integrated into the fast Control-Oriented Transport simulation framework. This optimization scheme is able to converge to the optimal values of the controllable inputs that produce the target plasma scenario by running thousands of predictive simulations in under an hour without sacrificing too much prediction accuracy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Designing Monte Carlo Simulation and an Optimal Machine Learning to Optimize and Model Space Missions

This paper investigates applying artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms to attitude control system of satellites to optimally tune the controller using high performance computing. This methodology is applied to the Virtual Telescope for X-ray Observation mission, which is a precise formation of two separate spacecraft observing multiple objects in the space in the X-ray domain. The mission is divided into phases based on the instrumentation and the mission goal. To reach an stable precise formation robust to stochastic slew and slew rate (i.e., Euler angles and angular velocities) in a minimal constrained time T , consumed energy of the attitude control system, denoted as E, and root-mean-square state error of attitude control system, denoted as e, are minimized. Monte-Carlo simulation is used for the sensitivity analysis of optimization and designing a controller. Deep neural networks (DNN), Gaussian processes (GP), and support vector regression (SVR) learn this optimization as a surrogate model, while their hyperparameters are optimized in a novel approach. THETA supercomputer at Argonne Leadership Computing Facility (ALCF) is used for optimizing the hyperparameters of DNN. The surrogate model meets the requirements of the mission, and it shows a better performance over the optimization and Monte-Carlo. The optimal DNN can satisfy the mission requirements e and T while reducing E for 90% compared to the other given methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Train Like a (Var)Pro: Efficient Training of Neural Networks with Variable Projection

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved state-of-the-art performance across a variety of traditional machine learning tasks, e.g., speech recognition, image classification, and segmentation. The ability of DNNs to efficiently approximate high-dimensional functions has also motivated their use in scientific applications, e.g., to solve partial differential equations and to generate surrogate models. In this paper, we consider the supervised training of DNNs, which arises in many of the above applications. We focus on the central problem of optimizing the weights of the given DNN such that it accurately approximates the relation between observed input and target data. Devising effective solvers for this optimization problem is notoriously challenging due to the large number of weights, nonconvexity, data sparsity, and nontrivial choice of hyperparameters. To solve the optimization problem more efficiently, we propose the use of variable projection (VarPro), a method originally designed for separable nonlinear least-squares problems. Our main contribution is the Gauss--Newton VarPro method (GNvpro) that extends the reach of the VarPro idea to nonquadratic objective functions, most notably cross-entropy loss functions arising in classification. These extensions make GNvpro applicable to all training problems that involve a DNN whose last layer is an affine mapping, which is common in many state-of-the-art architectures. In our four numerical experiments from surrogate modeling, segmentation, and classification, GNvpro solves the optimization problem more efficiently than commonly used stochastic gradient descent (SGD) schemes. Finally, GNvpro finds solutions that generalize well, and in all but one example better than well-tuned SGD methods, to unseen data points.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data-driven Chaos Indicator for Nonlinear Dynamics and Applications on Storage Ring Lattice Design

A data-driven chaos indicator concept is introduced to characterize the degree of chaos for nonlinear dynamical systems. The indicator is represented by the prediction accuracy of surrogate models established purely from data. It provides a metric for the predictability of nonlinear motions in a given system. When using the indicator to implement a tune-scan for a quadratic Hénon map, the main resonances and their asymmetric stop-band widths can be identified. When applied to particle transportation in a storage ring, as particle motion becomes more chaotic, its surrogate model prediction accuracy decreases correspondingly. Therefore, the prediction accuracy, acting as a chaos indicator, can be used directly as the objective for nonlinear beam dynamics optimization. This method provides a different perspective on nonlinear beam dynamics and an efficient method for nonlinear lattice optimization. Applications in dynamic aperture optimization are demonstrated as real world examples.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

IMPACT: Design of Integrated Multiphysics Producible Additive Components for Turbomachinery

The overall objective of the IMPACT program was to enable a dramatic reduction in design maturation time for an additive hot-section turbomachinery component through the following: • A fast crack-risk producibility surrogate model generated from machine learning applied to additive process simulation data generated via exascale computing, • Linking this surrogate model to multi-physics topology optimization (TO) to enable the creation of producible, near-optimal structural/thermal designs for additive hot-section components, • Maturing this toolset to reduce hot-section component design-for-manufacturing iterations by a large fraction, and eventually, • Using these tools to develop more efficient gas turbines in much shorter design cycle times.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Invertible Neural Networks for Airfoil Design

We report the airfoil design problem, in which an engineer seeks a shape with desired performance characteristics, is fundamental to aerodynamics. Design workflows traditionally rely on iterative optimization methods using low-fidelity integral boundary-layer methods as higher-fidelity adjoint-based computational fluid dynamics methods are computationally expensive. Surrogate-based approaches can accelerate the design process but still rely on some iterative inverse design procedure. In this work, we leverage emerging invertible neural network (INN) tools to enable the rapid inverse design of airfoil shapes for wind turbines. INNs are specialized deep-learning models with well-defined inverse mappings. When trained appropriately, INN surrogate models are capable of forward prediction of aerodynamic and structural quantities for a given airfoil shape as well as inverse recovery of airfoil shapes with specified aerodynamic and structural characteristics. The INN approach offers a roughly 100 times speed-up compared to adjoint-based methods for inverse design. We demonstrate the INN tool for inverse design on three test cases of 100 airfoils each that satisfy the performance characteristics close to those of airfoils used in wind-turbine blades. All generated shapes satisfy the desired aerodynamic characteristics, demonstrating the success of the INN approach for inverse design of airfoils.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Accelerating computational fluid dynamics simulation of post-combustion carbon capture modeling with MeshGraphNets

Packed columns are commonly used in post-combustion processes to capture CO 2 emissions by providing enhanced contact area between a CO 2 -laden gas and CO 2 -absorbing solvent. To study and optimize solvent-based post-combustion carbon capture systems (CCSs), computational fluid dynamics (CFD) can be used to model the liquid–gas countercurrent flow hydrodynamics in these columns and derive key determinants of CO 2 -capture efficiency. However, the large design space of these systems hinders the application of CFD for design optimization due to its high computational cost. In contrast, data-driven modeling approaches can produce fast surrogates to study large-scale physics problems. We build our surrogates using MeshGraphNets (MGN), a graph neural network framework that efficiently learns and produces mesh-based simulations. We apply MGN to a random packed column modeled with over 160K graph nodes and a design space consisting of three key input parameters: solvent surface tension, inlet velocity, and contact angle. Our models can adapt to a wide range of these parameters and accurately predict the complex interactions within the system at rates over 1700 times faster than CFD, affirming its practicality in downstream design optimization tasks. This underscores the robustness and versatility of MGN in modeling complex fluid dynamics for large-scale CCS analyses.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting Emission Source Terms in a Reduced-Order Fire Spread Model—Part 1: Particulate Emissions

A simple, easy-to-evaluate, surrogate model was developed for predicting the particle emission source term in wildfire simulations. In creating this model, we conceptualized wildfire as a series of flamelets, and using this concept of flamelets, we developed a one-dimensional model to represent the structure of these flamelets which then could be used to simulate the evolution of a single flamelet. A previously developed soot model was executed within this flamelet simulation which could produce a particle size distribution. Executing this flamelet simulation 1200 times with varying conditions created a data set of emitted particle size distributions to which simple rational equations could be tuned to predict a particle emission factor, mean particle size, and standard deviation of particle sizes. These surrogate models (the rational equation) were implemented into a reduced-order fire spread model, QUIC-Fire. Using QUIC-Fire, an ensemble of simulations were executed for grassland fires, southeast U.S. conifer forests, and western mountain conifer forests. Resulting emission factors from this ensemble were compared against field data for these fire classes with promising results. Also shown is a predicted averaged resulting particle size distribution with the bulk of particles produced to be on the order of 1 μm in size.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Review of multi-fidelity models

Multi-fidelity models provide a framework for integrating computational models of varying complexity, allowing for accurate predictions while optimizing computational resources. These models are especially beneficial when acquiring high-accuracy data is costly or computationally intensive. This review offers a comprehensive analysis of multi-fidelity models, focusing on their applications in scientific and engineering fields, particularly in optimization and uncertainty quantification. It classifies publications on multi-fidelity modeling according to several criteria, including application area, surrogate model selection, types of fidelity, combination methods and year of publication. The study investigates techniques for combining different fidelity levels, with an emphasis on multi-fidelity surrogate models. Here this work discusses reproducibility, open-sourcing methodologies and benchmarking procedures to promote transparency. The manuscript also includes educational toy problems to enhance understanding. Additionally, this paper outlines best practices for presenting multi-fidelity-related savings in a standardized, succinct and yet thorough manner. The review concludes by examining current trends in multi-fidelity modeling, including emerging techniques, recent advancements, and promising research directions.

42 ENGINEERING↗