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At least 919 records · Page 51

Mechanisms of O2 Sputtering from Water Ice by keV Ions

We have conducted experiments on the sputtering of water ice by 100 keV Ar(+) between 20 and 150 K. Our findings indicate that the temperature dependence of the total sputtering yield is heavily influenced by the thermal and irradiation history of the ice, showing a complex dependence on irradiation fluence that is correlated to the ejection of O2 molecules. The results suggest that O2 produced by the ions inside the ice diffuses to the surface where it is trapped and then ejected via sputtering or thermal desorption. A high concentration of O2 can trap in a subsurface layer during bombardment at 130 K, which we relate to the formation of hydrogen and its escape from that region. A simple model allows us to determine the depth profile of the absolute concentration of O2 trapped in the ice.

Teolis, B. D.↗

The Multiple Use Plug Hybrid for NanoSats (MUPHyN) Miniature Thruster

The Multiple Use Plug Hybrid (for) Nanosats is a prototype thruster is being developed to fill a niche application for NanoSat-scale spacecraft propulsion. When fully developed, the MUPHyN thruster will provide an effective and low-risk propulsive capability that could enable multiple NanoSats to be independently re-positioned after deployment from a parent launch vehicle. Because the environmentally benign, chemically-stable propellants are mixed only within the combustion chamber after ignition and the flow rate of the fuel is determined by a pyrolysis mechanism that is nearly independent of pressure or fuel grain defects, the system is inherently safe and can be piggy-backed near a secondary payload with little or no overall mission risk increase to the primary payload. The MUPHyN thruster uses safe-handling and inexpensive nitrous oxide (N2O) and acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) as propellants. Fused Deposition Modeling (FDM), a direct digital manufacturing process, is used to fabricate short-form-factor solid fuel grains with multiple helical combustion ports from ABS thermoplastic. This manufacturing process allows for the rapid development and manufacture of complex fuel grain geometries that are not possible to extrude or cast using conventional methods. This technology enables the construction of fuel grains with length-to-diameter ratios appropriate for incorporation into CubeSats while maintaining high surface areas and regression rates that allow the system to maintain a near optimal oxidizer to fuel ratio. The MUPHyN system provides attitude control torques by using secondary-injection thrust vectoring on a truncated aerospike nozzle. This configuration allows large impulse delta V burns and small impulse attitude control firings to be performed with the same system. To ensure survivability during extend duration burns, the MUPHyN incorporates a novel regenerative cooling design where the N2O oxidizer flows through a cooling path embedded in the aerospike nozzle before being injected into the combustion chamber near the nozzle base.

Eilers, Shannon D.↗

Lunar Station: The Next Logical Step in Space Development

The International Space Station (ISS) is the product of the efforts of sixteen nations over the course of several decades. It is now complete, operational, and has been continuously occupied since November of 20001. Since then the ISS has been carrying out a wide variety of research and technology development experiments, and starting to produce some pleasantly startling results. The ISS has a mass of 420 metric tons, supports a crew of six with a yearly resupply requirement of around 30 metric tons, within a pressurized volume of 916 cubic meters, and a habitable volume of 388 cubic meters. Its solar arrays produce up to 84 kilowatts of power. In the course of developing the ISS, many lessons were learned and much valuable expertise was gained. Where do we go from here? The ISS offers an existence proof of the feasibility of sustained human occupation and operations in space over decades. It also demonstrates the ability of many countries to work collaboratively on a very complex and expensive project in space over an extended period of time to achieve a common goal. By harvesting best practices and lessons learned, the ISS can also serve as a useful model for exploring architectures for beyond low-­‐ earth-­‐orbit (LEO) space development. This paper will explore the concept and feasibility for a Lunar Station. The Station concept can be implemented by either putting the equivalent capability of the ISS down on the surface of the Moon, or by developing the required capabilities through a combination of delivered materials and equipment and in situ resource utilization (ISRU). Scenarios that leverage existing technologies and capabilities as well as capabilities that are under development and are expected to be available within the next 3-­5 years, will be examined. This paper will explore how best practices and expertise gained from developing and operating the ISS and other relevant programs can be applied to effectively developing Lunar Station.

Lunar↗

ExMC Digital Engineering

Future missions beyond Artemis II will become increasingly complex as multiple vehicles (e.g., Gateway, Human Landing System (HLS), and Extravehicular Activity and Human Surface Mobility Program (EHP)), each having their own Program requirements and other associated documentation, which will need to be integrated into a single mission. Currently, the Human Health and Performance Directorate (HHPD)Program Support Teams mostly use documents to manage, perform, and archive their analyses. Identifying an opportunity for efficiency, ExMC demonstrated the ability to utilize MagicDraw, a Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) tool, as a requirements database with traceability, dependencies, and relationships in one place. Rather than existing in documents, emails, and historical knowledge, ExMC pursued a Digital Engineering (DE) effort in coordination with HHPD by combining MBSE tools with other digital platforms to manage and develop user-defined databases and interfaces. This DE approach is aimed to simplify processes and reduce risk through the unification of requirements into a centralized digital network, improving collaboration, decision-making, and transparency compared to isolated documents and knowledge. However, manipulating data views and content in MagicDraw requires a steep learning curve not needed by all users and even the user-friendly web view comes with downsides due to the static views. To provide a more dynamic user interface, ExMC investigated the use of Microsoft Power Platform which does not require as steep of a learning curve to become proficient. This introduces analytics to the DE infrastructure, offering customizable and dynamic data dashboards. ExMC continues developing these dashboards and tailoring the DE infrastructure in alignment with HHPD workforce needs.

M Krihak↗

Development of the Artemis Distributed Simulation FOMs

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is formulating and developing the Artemis Program, a collaboration with domestic commercial and international partners that will establish a long term human presence on the Moon and extend human exploration beyond the Earth-Moon system ahead of exploring Mars. These Artemis partners are developing a portfolio of space and surface systems to support human missions to the lunar surface and beyond. The Artemis systems will provide the mobility, habitation, and logistics infrastructure that will support human exploration and foster robust scientific investigations. Each partner will contribute one or more elements to the Artemis Program with NASA having the overarching responsibility for defining the Artemis architecture and guiding the integration of this complex system of space systems. To successfully accomplish this audacious task, NASA will rely on the development and execution of many complex models and simulations. Many of these simulations will be provided by the Artemis partners. While each of these simulations will provide important insight into the characteristics and performance of an associated system, individually they will not provide insight into the integrated performance of the architecture and the system of systems working in concert to execute a given Artemis mission. To address this need, NASA is developing a distributed simulation capability called the Artemis Distributed Simulation (ADS). ADS’s distributed nature supports the complex aggregation of constituent Artemis element simulations. Artemis partner simulations will be able to join into an ADS-based distributed simulation and interact with other Artemis element simulations while limiting the exposure of proprietary designs and data. ADS is defining a distributed simulation capability built on international simulation interoperability standards, specifically the High Level Architecture (HLA) and the Space Reference Federation Object Model (SpaceFOM). While HLA and SpaceFOM provide the substantive necessary technology basis for ADS, additional common datatypes, message definitions, and execution protocols are required. These extensions constitute the ADS Federation Object Model (FOM). This paper describes the fundamental architectural elements of ADS and the FOM extensions needed to support the complex nature of the Artemis Program. This includes the examination of the ADS FOM modules, ADS base datatypes, ADS SpaceFOM Object Class extensions, new ADS Object Classes, and new ADS Interaction Classes.

HLA↗

Development of the Artemis Distributed Simulation FOMs

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is formulating and developing the Artemis Program, a collaboration with domestic commercial and international partners that will establish a long term human presence on the Moon and extend human exploration beyond the Earth-Moon system ahead of exploring Mars. These Artemis partners are developing a portfolio of space and surface systems to support human missions to the lunar surface and beyond. The Artemis systems will provide the mobility, habitation, and logistics infrastructure that will support human exploration and foster robust scientific investigations. Each partner will contribute one or more elements to the Artemis Program with NASA having the overarching responsibility for defining the Artemis architecture and guiding the integration of this complex system of space systems. To successfully accomplish this audacious task, NASA will rely on the development and execution of many complex models and simulations. Many of these simulations will be provided by the Artemis partners. While each of these simulations will provide important insight into the characteristics and performance of an associated system, individually they will not provide insight into the integrated performance of the architecture and the system of systems working in concert to execute a given Artemis mission. To address this need, NASA is developing a distributed simulation capability called the Artemis Distributed Simulation (ADS). ADS’s distributed nature supports the complex aggregation of constituent Artemis element simulations. Artemis partner simulations will be able to join into an ADS-based distributed simulation and interact with other Artemis element simulations while limiting the exposure of proprietary designs and data. ADS is defining a distributed simulation capability built on international simulation interoperability standards, specifically the High Level Architecture (HLA) and the Space Reference Federation Object Model (SpaceFOM). While HLA and SpaceFOM provide the substantive necessary technology basis for ADS, additional common datatypes, message definitions, and execution protocols are required. These extensions constitute the ADS Federation Object Model (FOM). This paper describes the fundamental architectural elements of ADS and the FOM extensions needed to support the complex nature of the Artemis Program. This includes the examination of the ADS FOM modules, ADS base datatypes, ADS SpaceFOM Object Class extensions, new ADS Object Classes, and new ADS Interaction Classes.

HLA↗

A TRMM Rainfall Estimation Method Applicable to Land Areas

Methods developed to estimate rain rate on a footprint scale over land with the satellite-borne multispectral dual-polarization Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/1) radiometer have met with limited success. Variability of surface emissivity on land and beam filling are commonly cited as the weaknesses of these methods. On the contrary, we contend a more significant reason for this lack of success is that the information content of spectral and polarization measurements of the SSM/I is limited. because of significant redundancy. As a result, the complex nature and vertical distribution C, of frozen and melting ice particles of different densities, sizes, and shapes cannot resolved satisfactorily. Extinction in the microwave region due to these complex particles can mask the extinction due to rain drops. Because of these reasons, theoretical models that attempt to retrieve rain rate do not succeed on a footprint scale. To illustrate the weakness of these models, as an example we can consider the brightness temperature measurement made by the radiometer in the 85 GHz channel (T85). Models indicate that T85 should be inversely related to the rain rate, because of scattering. However, rain rate derived from 15-minute rain gauges on land indicate that this is not true in a majority of footprints. This is also supported by the ship-borne radar observations of rain in the Tropical Oceans and Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA-COARE) region over the ocean. Based on these observations. we infer that theoretical models that attempt to retrieve rain rate do not succeed on a footprint scale. We do not follow the above path of rain retrieval on a footprint scale. Instead, we depend on the limited ability of the microwave radiometer to detect the presence of rain. This capability is useful to determine the rain area in a mesoscale region. We find in a given rain event that this rain area is closely related to the mesoscale-average rain rate. Based on this observation, in this study we have developed a method to estimate the mesoscale-average rain rate over land utilizing microwave radiometer data. Because of the high degree of geographic and seasonal variability in the nature and intensity of rain, this method requires some tuning with 15-minute rain gauge data on land. After tuning the method, it can be applied to an independent set of rain events that are close in time and space. We find that the mesoscale rain rates retrieved over the period of a month on land with this method shows a correlation of about 0.85 with respect to the surface rain-gauge observations. This mesoscale-average rain rate estimation method can be useful to extend the spatial and temporal coverage of the rainfall data provided by the Precipitation Radar on board the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite.

Prabhakara, C.↗

Spectral identification/elimination of molecular species in spacecraft glow

Computer models of molecular electronic and vibrational emission intensities were developed. Known radiative emission rates (Einstein coefficients) permit the determination of relative excited state densities from spectral intensities. These codes were applied to the published spectra of glow above shuttle surface and to the Spacelab 1 results of Torr and Torr. The theoretical high-resolution spectra were convolved with the appropriate instrumental slit functions to allow accurate comparison with data. The published spacelab spectrum is complex but N2+ Meinel emission can be clearly identified in the ram spectrum. M2 First Positive emission does not correlate well with observed features, nor does the CN Red System. Spectral overlay comparisons are presented. The spectrum of glow above shuttle surfaces, in contrast to the ISO data, is not highly structured. Diatomic molecular emission was matched to the observed spectral shape. Source excitation mechanisms such as (oxygen atom)-(surface species) reaction product chemiluminescence, surface recombination, or resonance fluorescent re-emission will be discussed for each tentative assignment. These assignments are the necessary first analytical step toward mechanism identification. Different glow mechanisms will occur above surfaces under different orbital conditions.

Green, B. D.↗

Smoke Dispersion Modeling Over Complex Terrain Using High-Resolution Meteorological Data and Satellite Observations: The FireHub Platform

A total number of 20,212 fire hot spots were recorded by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite instrument over Greece during the period 2002e2013. The Fire Radiative Power (FRP) of these events ranged from 10 up to 6000 MW at 1 km resolution, and many of these fire episodes resulted in long-range transport of smoke over distances up to several hundred kilometers. Three different smoke episodes over Greece are analyzed here using real time hot-spot observations from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) satellite instrument as well as from MODIS hot-spots. Simulations of smoke dispersion are performed with the FLEXPART-WRF model and particulate matter emissions are calculated directly from the observed FRP. The modeled smoke plumes are compared with smoke stereo-heights from the Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) instrument and the sensitivities to atmospheric and modeling parameters are examined. Driving the simulations with high resolution meteorology (4 4 km) and using geostationary satellite data to identify the hot spots allows the description of local scale features that govern smoke dispersion. The long-range transport of smoke is found to be favored over the complex coastline environment of Greece due to the abrupt changes between land and marine planetary boundary layers (PBL) and the decoupling of smoke layers from the surface.

fire smoke↗

Methodology for Validation of Unsteady Pressure-Sensitive Paint Measurements using Pressure Transducers

Unsteady Pressure-Sensitive Paint (uPSP) technology provides simultaneously high-frequency and high-spatial resolution surface pressure fluctuation measurements. It has demonstrated value in wind tunnel test facilities to evaluate aerospace vehicle unsteady aerodynamics. The calibration of measurements from digital pixel counts into corresponding physical units relies on both lab-based and in-situ calibration steps, and its validation is both challenging and critical to adoption of the technology. We present a rigorous methodology for direct comparison of uPSP-derived surface pressure measurements to reference pressure transducer data based on a model of the camera-based measurement error, a model of the flow field pressure signal, and their propagation through the uPSP data reduction algorithm. The methodology is demonstrated on data collected in a small-scale, subsonic wind tunnel test as well as data collected from a Space Launch System unsteady aerodynamics characterization test at the NASA Ames Research Center Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel Complex.

Pressure-Sensitive Paint↗

Validating uPSP with Transducers

Unsteady Pressure-Sensitive Paint (uPSP) technology provides simultaneously high-frequency and high-spatial resolution surface pressure fluctuation measurements. It has demonstrated value in wind tunnel test facilities to evaluate aerospace vehicle unsteady aerodynamics. The calibration of measurements from digital pixel counts into corresponding physical units relies on both lab-based and in-situ calibration steps, and its validation is both challenging and critical to adoption of the technology. We present a rigorous methodology for direct comparison of uPSP-derived surface pressure measurements to reference pressure transducer data based on a model of the camera-based measurement error, a model of the flow field pressure signal, and their propagation through the uPSP data reduction algorithm. The methodology is demonstrated on data collected in a small-scale, subsonic wind tunnel test as well as data collected from a Space Launch System unsteady aerodynamics characterization test at the NASA Ames Research Center Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel Complex.

Pressure-Sensitive Paint↗

Statistical Wind-Tunnel Experimentation Advancements for eVTOL Aircraft Aero-Propulsive Model Development

Compared to many conventional aircraft, electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicle designs present greater aero-propulsive complexity and many interacting factors requiring development of novel testing and model development strategies. This paper describes several advances in statistically-rigorous experiment design methods for wind-tunnel testing of eVTOL aircraft enabling accurate aero-propulsive model development. The techniques are applied to a subscale tilt-rotor eVTOL aircraft configuration built at NASA Langley Research Center that has 24 independent control effectors. The general testing approach, leveraging design of experiments and response surface methodology, is outlined and followed by a detailed description of the experiment design and modeling approach employed for different phases of the wind-tunnel testing. A new approach for gravitational tare modeling is developed and validated, which reduces the required wind-tunnel test time by nearly 50%. A mostly automated trim envelope determination approach is formulated to rapidly determine the aircraft flight envelope to inform transition testing for aero-propulsive model development. Efficient powered-airframe characterization tests are conducted using a nested I-optimal design approach formulated in previous simulation-based testing. The collective wind-tunnel testing approach facilitates rapid characterization of eVTOL aircraft configurations and produces accurate aero-propulsive models that can be used in flight dynamics simulations.

design of experiments↗

Simulation experiments for gamma-ray mapping of planetary surfaces: Scattering of high-energy neutrons

The concentration and distribution of certain elements in surface layers of planetary objects specify constraints on models of their origin and evolution. This information can be obtained by means of remote sensing gamma-ray spectroscopy, as planned for a number of future space missions, i.e., Mars, Moon, asteroids, and comets. To investigate the gamma-rays made by interactions of neutrons with matter, thin targets of different composition were placed between a neutron-source and a high-resolution germanium spectrometer. Gamma-rays in the range of 0.1 to 8 MeV were accumulated. In one set of experiments a 14-MeV neutron generator using the T(d,n) reaction as neutron-source was placed in a small room. Scattering in surrounding walls produced a spectrum of neutron energies from 14 MeV down to thermal. This complex neutron-source induced mainly neutron-capture lines and only a few scattering lines. As a result of the set-up, there was a considerable background of discrete lines from surrounding materials. A similar situation exists under planetary exploration conditions: gamma-rays are induced in the planetary surface as well as in the spacecraft. To investigate the contribution of neutrons with higher energies, an experiment for the measurement of prompt gamma radiation was set up at the end of a beam-line of an isochronous cyclotron.

Brueckner, J.↗

Development of Response Surface Models for Rapid Analysis and Multidisciplinary Optimization of Launch Vehicle Design Concepts

Multidisciplinary design optimization (MDO) is an important step in the design and evaluation of launch vehicles, since it has a significant impact on performance and lifecycle cost. The objective in MDO is to search the design space to determine the values of design parameters that optimize the performance characteristics subject to system constraints. Vehicle Analysis Branch (VAB) at NASA Langley Research Center has computerized analysis tools in many of the disciplines required for the design and analysis of launch vehicles. Vehicle performance characteristics can be determined by the use of these computerized analysis tools. The next step is to optimize the system performance characteristics subject to multidisciplinary constraints. However, most of the complex sizing and performance evaluation codes used for launch vehicle design are stand-alone tools, operated by disciplinary experts. They are, in general, difficult to integrate and use directly for MDO.

Unal, Resit↗

Experiments Developed to Study Microgravity Smoldering Combustion

The overall objective of the Microgravity Smoldering Combustion (MSC) research program is to understand and predict smoldering combustion under normal and microgravity (near-zero-gravity) conditions to help prevent and control smolder-originated fires, in both environments. Smoldering is defined as a nonflaming, self-sustaining, propagating, exothermic surface reaction. If a material is sufficiently permeable, smoldering is not confined to its outer surface, but can propagate as a reaction wave through the interior of the material. The MSC program will accomplish its goals by conducting smolder experiments on the ground and in a space-based laboratory, and developing theoretical models of the process. Space-based experiments are necessary because smoldering is a very slow process and, consequently, its study in a microgravity environment requires extended periods of time that can only be achieved in space. Smoldering can occur in a variety of processes ranging from the smolder of porous insulating materials to underground coal combustion. Many materials can sustain smoldering, including wood, cloth, foams, tobacco, other dry organic materials, and charcoal. The ignition, propagation, transition to flaming, and extinction of the smolder reaction are controlled by complex, thermochemical mechanisms that are not well understood. As with many forms of combustion, gravity affects the availability of the oxidizer and the transport of heat, and therefore, the rate of combustion. The smoldering combustion of porous materials has been studied both experimentally and theoretically, usually in the context of fire safety. Smoldering encompasses a number of fundamental processes, including heat and mass transfer in a porous media; endothermic pyrolysis of combustible material; ignition, propagation, and extinction of heterogeneous exothermic reactions at the solid-gas pore interface; and the onset of gas phase reactions (flaming) from existing surface reactions. Smoldering presents a serious fire risk because the combustion can propagate slowly in a material's interior and go undetected for long periods of time. It typically yields a substantially higher conversion of fuel to toxic compounds than does flaming (though more slowly), and may undergo a sudden transition to flaming.

Vergilii, Franklin↗

Studies of Two-Phase Gas-Liquid Flow in Microgravity

Two-phase gas-liquid flows are expected to occur in many future space operations. Due to a lack of buoyancy in the microgravity environment, two-phase flows are known to behave differently than those in earth gravity. Despite these concerns, little research has been conducted on microgravity two-phase flow and the current understanding is poor. This dissertation describes an experimental and modeling study of the characteristics of two-phase flows in microgravity. An experiment was operated onboard NASA aircraft capable of producing short periods of microgravity. In addition to high speed photographs of the flows, electronic measurements of void fraction, liquid film thickness, bubble and wave velocity, pressure drop and wall shear stress were made for a wide range of liquid and gas flow rates. The effects of liquid viscosity, surface tension and tube diameter on the behavior of these flows were also assessed. From the data collected, maps showing the occurrence of various flow patterns as a function of gas and liquid flow rates were constructed. Earth gravity two-phase flow models were compared to the results of the microgravity experiments and in some cases modified. Models were developed to predict the transitions on the flow pattern maps. Three flow patterns, bubble, slug and annular flow, were observed in microgravity. These patterns were found to occur in distinct regions of the gas-liquid flow rate parameter space. The effect of liquid viscosity, surface tension and tube diameter on the location of the boundaries of these regions was small. Void fraction and Weber number transition criteria both produced reasonable transition models. Void fraction and bubble velocity for bubble and slug flows were found to be well described by the Drift-Flux model used to describe such flows in earth gravity. Pressure drop modeling by the homogeneous flow model was inconclusive for bubble and slug flows. Annular flows were found to be complex systems of ring-like waves and a substrate film. Pressure drop was best fitted with the Lockhart- Martinelli model. Force balances suggest that droplet entrainment may be a large component of the total pressure drop.

Bousman, William Scott↗

GIS Data Based Automatic High-Fidelity 3D Road Network Modeling

3D road models are widely used in many computer applications such as racing games and driving simulations_ However, almost all high-fidelity 3D road models were generated manually by professional artists at the expense of intensive labor. There are very few existing methods for automatically generating 3D high-fidelity road networks, especially those existing in the real world. This paper presents a novel approach thai can automatically produce 3D high-fidelity road network models from real 2D road GIS data that mainly contain road. centerline in formation. The proposed method first builds parametric representations of the road centerlines through segmentation and fitting . A basic set of civil engineering rules (e.g., cross slope, superelevation, grade) for road design are then selected in order to generate realistic road surfaces in compliance with these rules. While the proposed method applies to any types of roads, this paper mainly addresses automatic generation of complex traffic interchanges and intersections which are the most sophisticated elements in the road networks

Wang, Jie↗

NMME Monthly / Seasonal Forecasts for NASA SERVIR Applications Science

This work details use of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) experimental forecasts as drivers for Decision Support Systems (DSSs) in the NASA / USAID initiative, SERVIR (a Spanish acronym meaning "to serve"). SERVIR integrates satellite observations, ground-based data and forecast models to monitor and forecast environmental changes and to improve response to natural disasters. Through the use of DSSs whose "front ends" are physically based models, the SERVIR activity provides a natural testbed to determine the extent to which NMME monthly to seasonal projections enable scientists, educators, project managers and policy implementers in developing countries to better use probabilistic outlooks of seasonal hydrologic anomalies in assessing agricultural / food security impacts, water availability, and risk to societal infrastructure. The multi-model NMME framework provides a "best practices" approach to probabilistic forecasting. The NMME forecasts are generated at resolution more coarse than that required to support DSS models; downscaling in both space and time is necessary. The methodology adopted here applied model output statistics where we use NMME ensemble monthly projections of sea-surface temperature (SST) and precipitation from 30 years of hindcasts with observations of precipitation and temperature for target regions. Since raw model forecasts are well-known to have structural biases, a cross-validated multivariate regression methodology (CCA) is used to link the model projected states as predictors to the predictands of the target region. The target regions include a number of basins in East and South Africa as well as the Ganges / Baramaputra / Meghna basin complex. The MOS approach used address spatial downscaling. Temporal disaggregation of monthly seasonal forecasts is achieved through use of a tercile bootstrapping approach. We interpret the results of these studies, the levels of skill by several metrics, and key uncertainties.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗