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At least 919 records · Page 51

Improving the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) Using a Physics-Based Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) Model: Preprint

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is a widely used resource providing satellite-derived solar data across the United States and globally. While the NSRDB employs a physical model for computing global horizontal irradiance (GHI), its current method for estimating cloudy-sky direct normal irradiance (DNI) relies on surface observations and empirical models. Recently, a novel physics-based approach, the Fast All-Sky Radiation Model for Solar applications with DNI (FARMS-DNI), was developed to enhance the DNI forecasting. FARMS-DNI incorporates both direct and scattered solar radiation within the circumsolar region, resulting in improved day-ahead DNI predictions when integrated into the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Solar extensions (WRF-Solar). This study integrates FARMS-DNI into the NSRDB algorithm to generate high-resolution DNI data from satellite resources. Our findings reveal that FARMS-DNI effectively mitigates the substantial DNI overestimation present in the conventional NSRDB across surface sites, particularly in conditions categorized as cloudy overcast. Consequently, this innovative model substantially enhances the overall accuracy of the NSRDB.

DNI↗

From SOHO to STEREO: Understanding Propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections

Direct comparison between coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from near the Sun and their solar wind counterparts became possible roughly a decade after the discovery of CMEs (Lindsay et aL 1999). This comparison revealed that fast CMEs decelerate and slow CMEs accelerate due to the interaction with the solar wind. Gopalswamy et al (2000) quantified this interaction as an interplanetary acceleration which is useful in predicting the arrival time and speed of CMEs at 1 AU. The interplanetary acceleration is essentially due to the aerodynamic drag between the CME and the solar wind because the propelling force and the solar gravity are effective only near the Sun. Combined remote-sensing and in situ observations from SOHO and Wind/ACE have helped us estimate the influence of the solar wind on the propagation of CMEs. However, these measurements have severe limitations because the remote sensed and in-situ observations correspond to different portions of the CME. Furthermore, the true speeds of Earth-directed CMEs cannot be measured accurately from a spacecraft located along the Sun-Earth line. There have been attempts to model the CME as a cone and get the space speed of the CME, which did improve the travel time predictions. Instruments on board the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) mission were able to provide observations of Earth-arriving CMEs without projection effects, while the same CMEs were observed at Sun-Earth L1 by Wind and ACE spacecraft. The quadrature between STEREO and L1 spacecraft presented an ideal situation to study the interplanetary evolution of CMEs and test earlier model results. The quadrature observations did improve the CME travel time predictions, but additional factors such as the unusually slow solar wind, CME cannibalism, and coronal-hole deflection need to be considered to reconcile the difference between observed and predicted travel times. This point is illustrated using the 2011 February 15 CME

Gopalswamy, Natchimuthuk↗

The Effects of Surface Fossil Magnetic Fields on Massive Star Evolution: IV. Grids of Models at Solar, LMC, and SMC Metallicities

Magnetic fields can drastically change predictions of evolutionary models of massive stars via mass-loss quenching, magnetic braking, and efficient angular momentum transport, which we aim to quantify in this work. We use the MESA software instrument to compute an e xtensiv e main-sequence grid of stellar structure and evolution models, as well as isochrones, accounting for the effects attributed to a surface fossil magnetic field. The grid is densely populated in initial mass (3–60 M ), surface equatorial magnetic field strength (0–50 kG), and metallicity (representative of the Solar neighbourhood and the Magellanic Clouds). We use two magnetic braking and two chemical mixing schemes and compare the model predictions for slowly rotating, nitrogen- enriched (‘Group 2’) stars with observations in the Large Magellanic Cloud. We quantify a range of initial field strengths that allow for producing Group 2 stars and find that typical values (up to a few kG) lead to solutions. Between the subgrids, we find notable departures in surface abundances and evolutionary paths. In our magnetic models, chemical mixing is al w ays less efficient compared to non-magnetic models due to the rapid spin-down. We identify that quasi-chemically homogeneous main sequence evolution by efficient mixing could be prevented by fossil magnetic fields. We recommend comparing this grid of evolutionary models with spectropolarimetric and spectroscopic observations with the goals of (i) revisiting the derived stellar parameters of known magnetic stars, and (ii) observationally constraining the uncertain magnetic braking and chemical mixing schemes.

stars: abundances↗

Toward predictive permeabilities: Experimental measurements and multiscale simulation of methanol transport in Nafion

A polymer membrane's permeability to solutes determines its suitability for various applications: a permeability value is essential for predicting performance in diverse contexts. Using aqueous methanol permeation through Nafion as an example, we describe a methodology for determining membrane permeability that accounts for boundary layer effects and the possibility of swelling. For the materials and apparatus used herein, analysis of a permeance measurement and computational fluid dynamics simulations show that the mass transfer boundary layer is on the order of ones to tens of microns. Additionally, the data are used to develop and validate a multiscale model describing solute permeation through a hydrated membrane as a series of physical mechanistic steps: reversible adsorption from solution at the membrane interface, diffusion driven by a concentration gradient within the membrane, and reversible desorption into solution at the opposite membrane interface. The validated model is used to predict methanol transport across a solar-driven CO 2 reduction device and to assess the impact of polymer changes on the measured value. The approach of combining experimental data, computational fluid dynamics, and the mechanistic multiscale model is expected to provide more accurate analysis of membrane permeation data in cases with polymer swelling or unusual device geometries, among others.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The Observed and Projected Changes of Global Monsoons: Current Status and Future Perspectives

The global monsoon system, encompassing the Asian-Australian, African, and American monsoons, sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture. Monsoon anomalies pose severe risks, including floods and droughts. Recent research associated with the implementation of the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project under the umbrella of CMIP6 has advanced our understanding of its historical variability and driving mechanisms. Observational data reveal a 20th-century shift: increased rainfall pre-1950s, followed by aridification and partial recovery post-1980s, driven by both internal variability (e.g., Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and external forcings (greenhouse gases, aerosols), while ENSO drives interannual variability through ocean-atmosphere interactions. Future projections under greenhouse forcing suggest long-term monsoon intensification, though regional disparities and model uncertainties persist. Models indicate robust trends but struggle to quantify extremes, where thermodynamic effects (warming-induced moisture rise) uniformly boost heavy rainfall, while dynamical shifts (circulation changes) create spatial heterogeneity. Volcanic eruptions and proposed solar radiation modification (SRM) further complicate predictions: tropical eruptions suppress monsoons, whereas high-latitude events alter cross-equatorial flows, highlighting unresolved feedbacks. The emergent constraint approach is booming in terms of correcting future projections and reducing uncertainty with respect to the global monsoons. Critical challenges remain. Model biases and sparse 20th-century observational data hinder accurate attribution. The interplay between natural variability and anthropogenic forcings, along with nonlinear extreme precipitation risks under warming, demands deeper mechanistic insights. Additionally, SRM’s regional impacts and hemispheric monsoon interactions require systematic evaluation. Addressing these gaps necessitates enhanced observational networks, refined climate models, and interdisciplinary efforts to disentangle multiscale drivers, ultimately improving resilience strategies for monsoon-dependent regions.

climate extreme events↗

Measurement of the Alfvén Wave Parametric Decay Instability Growth Rate

Alfvén waves, a fundamental mode of magnetized plasmas, are ubiquitous in space and laboratory plasmas. The nonlinear behavior of these modes is thought to play a key role in important problems in space plasma, such as the heating of the solar corona and solar wind turbulence. In particular, theoretical predictions show that these Alfvén waves may be unstable to various parametric instabilities, but space observations of these processes are limited. We demonstrate the first measurement of the Alfvén wave parametric decay instability (PDI) growth rate. Experiments are conducted on the Large Plasma Device at UCLA in which a high amplitude 𝛿⁢𝐵/𝐵 0 ∼ 0.7% pump Alfvén wave is launched from one end of the device and a smaller seed Alfvén wave is launched from the other side. When the frequency of the seed wave is chosen to match the backward wave expected from PDI, damping of the seed wave is reduced. We compare this reduction in damping to the theoretically expected PDI growth rate while accounting for acoustic mode damping. Results show agreement between measurements and theoretical predictions. As a result, this not only provides critical validation for PDI theories and simulations that could help interpret future space observations but also suggests a new way of studying similar nonlinear wave phenomena.

Alfvén waves↗

Evaluating the Potential for Tidal Phase Diversity to Produce Smoother Power Profiles

Although tidal energy conversion technologies are not yet commercially available or cost-competitive with other renewable energy technologies like wind turbines and solar panels, tides are a highly predictable resource. Tidal energy’s predictability indicates that the resource could introduce less volatility into balancing the electric grid when compared to other renewables, a fundamentally desirable attribute for the electric system. More specifically, tidal energy resources are unique in that they have the potential to produce relatively smoother power profiles over time through aggregation. In order to generate smooth power profiles from tidal resources, sufficient complexity within the timing of tides is necessary within electrical proximity. This study evaluates the concept of aggregating diverse tides for the purpose of reducing periods of no and low energy production and creating smoother power profiles in regions around Alaska and Washington by calculating cross-correlations of tidal current velocity time series. Ultimately, study results show limited potential to exploit the resources for this purpose and describe the institutional mechanisms necessary to realize the benefits in practice.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Nuclear gamma rays from solar flares

Solar gamma ray line emission and the source of that emission at 0.5, 2.2, 4.4, and 6.1 MeV were reviewed and updated. Data were taken from OSO-7 observations of the August 4 and 7 solar flares. A comparison, made between predicted and observed emissions, show that the 0.5, 2.2, 4.4, and 6.1 MeV lines are produced by positron annihilation, deuterium deexcitation following neutron capture on hydrogen, and the deexcitation of the first nuclear levels of C-12 and O-16 respectively. Accelerated particle spectra at the sun independent of assumed interaction were determined.

Ramaty, R.↗

A review of the Jovian magnetosphere based upon Pioneer 10 and 11

Data derived from the plasma, magnetic field, and energetic particle experiments on the December, 1973 and December, 1974 Jupiter encounters are reviewed. A bow shock was discovered on the solar side of the planet, as predicted. However, a smaller magnetic field and larger fluxes of energetic electrons were found than anticipated. A ring current and current sheet in the Jovian plasmasphere are inferred from magnetic field measurements.

Trainor, J. H.↗

Demonstration of the feasibility of automated silicon solar cell fabrication

A study effort was undertaken to determine the process, steps and design requirements of an automated silicon solar cell production facility. Identification of the key process steps was made and a laboratory model was conceptually designed to demonstrate the feasibility of automating the silicon solar cell fabrication process. A detailed laboratory model was designed to demonstrate those functions most critical to the question of solar cell fabrication process automating feasibility. The study and conceptual design have established the technical feasibility of automating the solar cell manufacturing process to produce low cost solar cells with improved performance. Estimates predict an automated process throughput of 21,973 kilograms of silicon a year on a three shift 49-week basis, producing 4,747,000 hexagonal cells (38mm/side), a total of 3,373 kilowatts at an estimated manufacturing cost of $0.866 per cell or $1.22 per watt.

Taylor, W. E.↗

Backscatter of hard X-rays in the solar atmosphere

The solar photosphere backscatters a substantial fraction of the hard X rays from solar flares incident upon it. This reflection was studied using a Monte Carlo simulation which takes into account Compton scattering and photo-electric absorption. Both isotropic and anisotropic X ray sources are considered. The bremsstrahlung from an anisotropic distribution of electrons are evaluated. By taking the reflection into account, the inconsistency is removed between recent observational data regarding the center-to-limb variation of solar X ray emission and the predictions of models in which accelerated electrons are moving down toward the photosphere.

Bai, T.↗

The solar wind and its influence on the atmospheres of moon, Mercury and Venus

The solar wind is expected to have an important influence on the atmospheres of the moon, Mercury and Venus and therefore a brief outline of solar wind theory is presented along with the predicted properties of the wind at the orbits of these planets. Since the atmospheres of the moon and possibly Mercury are formed primarily by solar wind accretion, we present the latest accretion models for these bodies. The expected role the solar wind plays on both the ionization and termination of the ionosphere of Venus is discussed.

Hartle, R. E.↗

New atomic data of O/2+/

New atomic data are tabulated for the ion O(2+). Collision strengths are calculated for several energies of the exciting electron. The populations of the levels of O(2+) are calculated as a function of electron density under conditions appropriate for the solar atmosphere. The available solar data are compared with theoretical predictions of relative line intensities.

Bhatia, A. K.↗

A balloon measurement of the isotopic composition of galactic cosmic ray boron, carbon and nitrogen

The isotopic compositions of galactic cosmic ray boron, carbon, and nitrogen were measured at energies near 300 MeV amu, using a balloon-borne instrument at an atmospheric depth of approximately 5 g/sq cm. The calibrations of the detectors comprising the instrument are described. The saturation properties of the cesium iodide scintillators used for measurement of particle energy are studied in the context of analyzing the data for mass. The achieved rms mass resolution varies from approximately 0.3 amu at boron to approximately 0.5 amu at nitrogen, consistent with a theoretical analysis of the contributing factors. Corrected for detector interactions and the effects of the residual atmosphere the results are B-10/B=0.33 (+0.17, -0.11), C-13/C=0.06 (+0.13, -0.11), and N-15/N=0.42 (+0.19, -0.17). A model of galactic propagation and solar modulation is described. Assuming a cosmic ray source composition of solar-like isotopic abundances, the model predicts abundances near Earth consistent with the measurements.

Zumberge, J. F.↗

High voltage cabling for high power spacecraft

Studies by NASA have shown that many of the space missions proposed for the time period 1980 to 2000 will require large spacecraft structures to be assembled in orbit. Large antennas and power systems up to 2.5 MW size are predicted to supply the electrical/electronic subsystems, solar electric subsystems, solar electric propulsion, and space processing for the near-term programs. Platforms of 100 meters/length for stable foundations, utility stations, and supports for these multi-antenna and electronic powered mechanisms are also being considered. This paper includes the findings of an analytic and conceptual design study for large spacecraft power distribution, and electrical loads and their influence on the cable and connector requirements for these proposed large spacecraft.

Dunbar, W. G.↗

Stationarity of magnetohydrodynamic fluctuations in the solar wind

Solar wind research and studies of charged particle propagation often assume that the interplanetary magnetic field represents a stationary random process. The extent to which ensemble averages of the solar wind magnetic fields follow the asymptotic behavior predicted by the ergodic theorem was investigated. Several time periods, including a span of nearly two years, are analyzed. Data intervals which span many solar rotations satisfy the conditions of weak stationarity if the effects of solar rotation are included in the asymptotic analysis. Shorter intervals which include a small integral number of interplanetary sectors also satisfy weak stationarity. The results are illustrated using magnetometer data from the ISEE-3, Voyager and IMP spacecraft.

Matthaeus, W. H.↗